Comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of natalizumab and fingolimod in rapidly evolving severe relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis in the United Kingdom

AIM

To evaluate the real-world comparative effectiveness and the cost-effectiveness, from a UK National Health Service perspective, of natalizumab versus fingolimod in patients with rapidly evolving severe relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RES-RRMS).

METHODS

Real-world data from the MSBase Registry were obtained for patients with RES-RRMS who were previously either naive to disease-modifying therapies or had been treated with interferon-based therapies, glatiramer acetate, dimethyl fumarate, or teriflunomide (collectively known as BRACETD). Matched cohorts were selected by 3-way multinomial propensity score matching, and the annualized relapse rate (ARR) and 6-month-confirmed disability worsening (CDW6M) and improvement (CDI6M) were compared between treatment groups. Comparative effectiveness results were used in a cost-effectiveness model comparing natalizumab and fingolimod, using an established Markov structure over a lifetime horizon with health states based on the Expanded Disability Status Scale. Additional model data sources included the UK MS Survey 2015, published literature, and publicly available sources.

RESULTS

In the comparative effectiveness analysis, we found a significantly lower ARR for patients starting natalizumab compared with fingolimod (rate ratio [RR] = 0.65; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.57-0.73) or BRACETD (RR = 0.46; 95% CI, 0.42-0.53). Similarly, CDI6M was higher for patients starting natalizumab compared with fingolimod (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.25; 95% CI, 1.01-1.55) and BRACETD (HR = 1.46; 95% CI, 1.16-1.85). In patients starting fingolimod, we found a lower ARR (RR = 0.72; 95% CI, 0.65-0.80) compared with starting BRACETD, but no difference in CDI6M (HR = 1.17; 95% CI, 0.91-1.50). Differences in CDW6M were not found between the treatment groups. In the base-case cost-effectiveness analysis, natalizumab dominated fingolimod (0.302 higher quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs] and £17,141 lower predicted lifetime costs). Similar cost-effectiveness results were observed across sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

This MSBase Registry analysis suggests that natalizumab improves clinical outcomes when compared with fingolimod, which translates to higher QALYs and lower costs in UK patients with RES-RRMS.

The risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis is geographically determined but modifiable

Geographical variations in the incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis have been reported globally. Latitude as a surrogate for exposure to ultraviolet radiation but also other lifestyle and environmental factors are regarded as drivers of this variation. No previous studies evaluated geographical variation in the risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis, an advanced form of multiple sclerosis that is characterized by steady accrual of irreversible disability. We evaluated differences in the risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis in relation to latitude and country of residence, modified by high-to-moderate efficacy immunotherapy in a geographically diverse cohort of patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. The study included relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients from the global MSBase registry with at least one recorded assessment of disability. Secondary progressive multiple sclerosis was identified as per clinician diagnosis. Sensitivity analyses used the operationalized definition of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis and the Swedish decision tree algorithm. A proportional hazards model was used to estimate the cumulative risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis by country of residence (latitude), adjusted for sex, age at disease onset, time from onset to relapsing-remitting phase, disability (Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score) and relapse activity at study inclusion, national multiple sclerosis prevalence, government health expenditure, and proportion of time treated with high-to-moderate efficacy disease-modifying therapy. Geographical variation in time from relapsing-remitting phase to secondary progressive phase of multiple sclerosis was modelled through a proportional hazards model with spatially correlated frailties. We included 51 126 patients (72% female) from 27 countries. The median survival time from relapsing-remitting phase to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis among all patients was 39 (95% confidence interval: 37 to 43) years. Higher latitude [median hazard ratio = 1.21, 95% credible interval (1.16, 1.26)], higher national multiple sclerosis prevalence [1.07 (1.03, 1.11)], male sex [1.30 (1.22, 1.39)], older age at onset [1.35 (1.30, 1.39)], higher disability [2.40 (2.34, 2.47)] and frequent relapses [1.18 (1.15, 1.21)] at inclusion were associated with increased hazard of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Higher proportion of time on high-to-moderate efficacy therapy substantially reduced the hazard of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis [0.76 (0.73, 0.79)] and reduced the effect of latitude [interaction: 0.95 (0.92, 0.99)]. At the country-level, patients in Oman, Tunisia, Iran and Canada had higher risks of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis relative to the other studied regions. Higher latitude of residence is associated with a higher probability of developing secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. High-to-moderate efficacy immunotherapy can mitigate some of this geographically co-determined risk.

Endocrine and multiple sclerosis outcomes in patients with autoimmune thyroid events in the alemtuzumab CARE-MS studies

Background

Alemtuzumab is an effective therapy for relapsing multiple sclerosis. Autoimmune thyroid events are a common adverse event.

Objective

Describe endocrine and multiple sclerosis outcomes over 6 years for alemtuzumab-treated relapsing multiple sclerosis patients in the phase 3 CARE-MS I, II, and extension studies who experienced adverse thyroid events.

Methods

Endocrine and multiple sclerosis outcomes were evaluated over 6 years. Thyroid event cases, excluding those pre-existing or occurring after Year 6, were adjudicated retrospectively by expert endocrinologists independently of the sponsor and investigators.

Results

Thyroid events were reported for 378/811 (46.6%) alemtuzumab-treated patients. Following adjudication, endocrinologists reached consensus on 286 cases (75.7%). Of these, 39.5% were adjudicated to Graves' disease, 2.5% Hashimoto's disease switching to hyperthyroidism, 15.4% Hashimoto's disease, 4.9% Graves' disease switching to hypothyroidism, 10.1% transient thyroiditis, and 27.6% with uncertain diagnosis; inclusion of anti-thyroid antibody status reduced the number of uncertain diagnoses. Multiple sclerosis outcomes of those with and without thyroid events were similar.

Conclusion

Adjudicated thyroid events occurring over 6 years for alemtuzumab-treated relapsing multiple sclerosis patients were primarily autoimmune. Thyroid events were considered manageable and did not affect disease course. Thyroid autoimmunity is a common but manageable adverse event in alemtuzumab-treated relapsing multiple sclerosis patients.ClinicalTrials.gov Registration Numbers: CARE-MS I (NCT00530348); CARE-MS II (NCT00548405); CARE-MS Extension (NCT00930553).

Early predictors of disability in paediatric multiple sclerosis: evidence from a multi-national registry

BACKGROUND

Early recognition of markers of faster disability worsening in paediatric-onset multiple sclerosis (MS) is a key requisite of personalised therapy for children with MS at the earliest possible time.

OBJECTIVE

To identify early predictors of rapid disability accrual in patients with paediatric-onset MS.

METHODS

Using the global MSBase registry, we identified patients who were <18 years old at the onset of MS symptoms. The clinico-demographic characteristics examined as predictors of future MS Severity Score (MSSS) included sex, age at symptom onset, absence of disability at the initial assessment, maximum Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score, relapse frequency and presence of brainstem, pyramidal, visual or cerebellar symptoms in the first year. A Bayesian log-normal generalised linear mixed model adjusted for cumulative proportion of time on higher-efficacy disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) was used to analyse the data.

RESULTS

672 patients (70% female) contributing 9357 visits were included. The median age at symptom onset was 16 (quartiles 15-17) years. Older age at symptom onset (exp(β)=1.10 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.17)), higher EDSS score (1.22 (1.12 to 1.34)) and pyramidal (1.31 (1.11 to 1.55)), visual (1.25 (1.10 to 1.44)) or cerebellar (1.18 (1.01 to 1.38)) symptoms in the first year were associated with higher MSSS. MSSS was reduced by 4% for every 24% increase in the proportion of time on higher-efficacy DMTs (0.96 (0.93 to 0.99)).

CONCLUSIONS

A relatively later onset of MS in childhood, higher disability and pyramidal, visual or cerebellar symptoms during the first year predicted significant worsening in disability in patients with paediatric-onset MS. Persistent treatment with higher-efficacy DMTs was associated with a reduced rate of disability worsening.

Impact of methodological choices in comparative effectiveness studies: application in natalizumab versus fingolimod comparison among patients with multiple sclerosis

Background

Natalizumab and fingolimod are used as high-efficacy treatments in relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis. Several observational studies comparing these two drugs have shown variable results, using different methods to control treatment indication bias and manage censoring. The objective of this empirical study was to elucidate the impact of methods of causal inference on the results of comparative effectiveness studies.

Methods

Data from three observational multiple sclerosis registries (MSBase, the Danish MS Registry and French OFSEP registry) were combined. Four clinical outcomes were studied. Propensity scores were used to match or weigh the compared groups, allowing for estimating average treatment effect for treated or average treatment effect for the entire population. Analyses were conducted both in intention-to-treat and per-protocol frameworks. The impact of the positivity assumption was also assessed.

Results

Overall, 5,148 relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis patients were included. In this well-powered sample, the 95% confidence intervals of the estimates overlapped widely. Propensity scores weighting and propensity scores matching procedures led to consistent results. Some differences were observed between average treatment effect for the entire population and average treatment effect for treated estimates. Intention-to-treat analyses were more conservative than per-protocol analyses. The most pronounced irregularities in outcomes and propensity scores were introduced by violation of the positivity assumption.

Conclusions

This applied study elucidates the influence of methodological decisions on the results of comparative effectiveness studies of treatments for multiple sclerosis. According to our results, there are no material differences between conclusions obtained with propensity scores matching or propensity scores weighting given that a study is sufficiently powered, models are correctly specified and positivity assumption is fulfilled.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-022-01623-8.

Treatment satisfaction, safety, and tolerability of cladribine tablets in patients with highly active relapsing multiple sclerosis: CLARIFY-MS study 6-month interim analysis

Background Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic disabling disease that is associated with negative effects on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) due to reduced physical and psychosocial functioning. Cladribine tablets 10 mg (3.5 mg/kg cumulative dose over 2 years) have been approved for the treatment of adult patients with highly active relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS). The ongoing CLARIFY-MS study (NCT03369665; EudraCT number: 2017-002632-17) aims to assess the effect of cladribine tablets 3.5 mg/kg on HRQoL of patients with highly active RMS. Objective To report on the design of the CLARIFY-MS study, baseline patient characteristics, and results of a pre-planned interim analysis focusing on treatment satisfaction, safety, and tolerability that includes all data reported till 6 months after start of treatment. Methods The CLARIFY-MS study is a 2-year, open-label, single-arm, prospective, multicenter, phase IV study. Eligible patients with highly active RMS were assigned to receive cladribine tablets 3.5 mg/kg over 2 years. Treatment satisfaction was assessed using the Treatment Satisfaction Questionnaire for Medication (TSQM, v1.4; scale range from 0 to 100, higher values indicating higher satisfaction). Safety assessments, including occurrence of treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs; any adverse event reported after drug administration), serious adverse events (SAEs), and lymphocyte counts, were summarized descriptively. Results A total of 482 patients from 85 sites in Europe were treated with cladribine tablets. Mean patient age was 37.4 years, 338 (70.1%) were women, median EDSS was 2.5, and 345 (71.6%) were prior users of disease-modifying therapy (DMT). During the first 6 months after the start of treatment, and before reaching the full dose of cladribine tablets, mean TSQM global satisfaction score for the overall population was 70.4 (standard deviation, ± 18.48). The side effects score was 91.9 (± 17.68), convenience scored 86.6 (± 13.57), and effectiveness was 65.8 (± 21.14). A total of 275 patients (57.1%) reported at least one TEAE and 9 patients (1.9%) had a SAE. The majority of observed lymphopenia cases were of grade 1 or 2; 33 (6.8%) of the total study cohort had grade 3 lymphopenia, and no grade 4 lymphopenia was reported. Conclusion Patients reported high treatment satisfaction (TSQM) with cladribine tablets in this pre-planned interim analysis at 6 months. Few serious, and no unexpected, adverse events were reported, and there were no instances of grade 4 lymphopenia over the first 6 months. These preliminary data indicate good tolerability and convenience of administration of cladribine tablets in patients with highly active RMS.

The effectiveness of natalizumab vs fingolimod-A comparison of international registry studies

BACKGROUND

Natalizumab and fingolimod were the first preparations recommended for disease breakthrough in priorly treated relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Of three published head-to-head studies two showed that natalizumab is the more effective to prevent relapses and EDSS worsening.

METHODS

By re-analyzing original published results from MSBase, France, and Denmark using uniform methodologies, we aimed at identifying the effects of differences in methodology, in the MS-populations, and at re-evaluating the differences in effectiveness between the two drugs. We gained access to copies of the individual amended databases and pooled all data. We used uniform inclusion/exclusion criteria and statistical methods with Inverse Probability Treatment Weighting.

RESULTS

The pooled analyses comprised 968 natalizumab- and 1479 fingolimod treated patients. The on-treatment natalizumab/fingolimod relapse rate ratio was 0.77 (p=0.004). The hazard ratio (HR) for a first relapse was 0.82 (p=0.030), and the HR for sustained EDSS improvement was 1.4 (p=0.009). There were modest differences between each of the original published studies and the replication study, but the conclusions of the three original studies remained unchanged: in two of them natalizumab was more effective, but in the third there was no difference between natalizumab and fingolimod.

CONCLUSION

The results were largely invariant to the epidemiological and statistical methods but differed between the MS populations. Generally, the advantage of natalizumab was confirmed.

Delay from treatment start to full effect of immunotherapies for multiple sclerosis

In multiple sclerosis, treatment start or switch is prompted by evidence of disease activity. Whilst immunomodulatory therapies reduce disease activity, the time required to attain maximal effect is unclear. In this study we aimed to develop a method that allows identification of the time to manifest fully and clinically the effect of multiple sclerosis treatments (‘therapeutic lag’) on clinical disease activity represented by relapses and progression-of-disability events. Data from two multiple sclerosis registries, MSBase (multinational) and OFSEP (French), were used. Patients diagnosed with multiple sclerosis, minimum 1-year exposure to treatment, minimum 3-year pretreatment follow-up and yearly review were included in the analysis. For analysis of disability progression, all events in the subsequent 5-year period were included. Density curves, representing incidence of relapses and 6-month confirmed progression events, were separately constructed for each sufficiently represented therapy. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to identify the first local minimum of the first derivative after treatment start; this point represented the point of stabilization of treatment effect, after the maximum treatment effect was observed. The method was developed in a discovery cohort (MSBase), and externally validated in a separate, non-overlapping cohort (OFSEP). A merged MSBase-OFSEP cohort was used for all subsequent analyses. Annualized relapse rates were compared in the time before treatment start and after the stabilization of treatment effect following commencement of each therapy. We identified 11 180 eligible treatment epochs for analysis of relapses and 4088 treatment epochs for disability progression. External validation was performed in four therapies, with no significant difference in the bootstrapped mean differences in therapeutic lag duration between registries. The duration of therapeutic lag for relapses was calculated for 10 therapies and ranged between 12 and 30 weeks. The duration of therapeutic lag for disability progression was calculated for seven therapies and ranged between 30 and 70 weeks. Significant differences in the pre- versus post-treatment annualized relapse rate were present for all therapies apart from intramuscular interferon beta-1a. In conclusion we have developed, and externally validated, a method to objectively quantify the duration of therapeutic lag on relapses and disability progression in different therapies in patients more than 3 years from multiple sclerosis onset. Objectively defined periods of expected therapeutic lag allows insights into the evaluation of treatment response in randomized clinical trials and may guide clinical decision-making in patients who experience early on-treatment disease activity. This method will subsequently be applied in studies that evaluate the effect of patient and disease characteristics on therapeutic lag.