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Plavcová E, Urban A. Intensified impacts on mortality due to compound winter extremes in the Czech Republic. Sci Total Environ 2020; 746:141033. [PMID: 32750577 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141033] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/13/2020] [Revised: 07/01/2020] [Accepted: 07/15/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Although impacts of extremely cold temperatures on human health have been widely studied, adverse effects of other extreme weather phenomena have so far received much less attention. We employed a high-quality long-term mortality time series (1982-2017) to evaluate impacts of extreme winter weather in the Czech Republic. We aimed to clarify whether compound events of extreme weather cause larger impacts on mortality than do each type of extreme if evaluated individually. Using daily data from the E-OBS and ERA5 datasets, we analyzed 9 types of extreme events: extreme wind gust, precipitation, snowfall, and sudden temperature and pressure changes. Relative mortality deviations from the adjusted baseline were used to estimate the immediate effect of the selected extreme events on excess mortality. The impact was adjusted for the effect of extreme cold. Extreme events associated with sudden rise of minimum temperature and pressure drops had generally significant impact on excess mortality (3.7% and 1.4% increase). The impacts were even more pronounced if these events occurred simultaneously or were compounded with other types of extremes, such as heavy precipitation, snowfall, maximum temperature rise, and their combinations (increase as great as 14.4%). Effects of some compound events were significant even for combinations of extremes having no significant impact on mortality when evaluated separately. On the other hand, a "protective" effect of pressure increases reduced the risk for its compound events. Meteorological patterns during extreme events linked to excess mortality indicate passage of a low-pressure system northerly from the study domain. We identified extreme winter weather events other than cold temperatures with significant impact on excess mortality. Our results suggest that occurrence of compound extreme events strengthen the impacts on mortality and therefore analysis of multiple meteorological parameters is a useful approach in defining adverse weather conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eva Plavcová
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic.
| | - Aleš Urban
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
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Urban A, Kyselý J, Plavcová E, Hanzlíková H, Štěpánek P. Temporal changes in years of life lost associated with heat waves in the Czech Republic. Sci Total Environ 2020; 716:137093. [PMID: 32044496 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137093] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/24/2019] [Revised: 01/09/2020] [Accepted: 02/01/2020] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Seniors constitute the population group generally most at risk of mortality due to heat stress. As life expectancy increases and health conditions of elderly people improve over time, vulnerability of the population to heat changes as well. We employed the years-of-life-lost (YLL) approach, considering life expectancy at the time of each death, to investigate how population ageing affects temporal changes in heat-related mortality in the Czech Republic. Using an updated gridded meteorological database, we identified heat waves during 1994-2017, and analysed temporal changes in their impacts on YLL and mortality. The mean impact of a heat-wave day on relative excess mortality and YLL had declined by approximately 2-3% per decade. That decline abated in the current decade, however, and the decreasing trend in mean excess mortality as well as YLL vanished when the short-term mortality displacement effect was considered. Moreover, the cumulative number of excess deaths and YLL during heat waves rose due to increasing frequency and intensity of heat waves during the examined period. The results show that in studies of temporal changes it is important to differentiate between mean effects of heat waves on mortality and the overall death burden associated with heat waves. Analysis of the average ratio of excess YLL/death per heat-wave day indicated that the major heat-vulnerable population group shifted towards older age (70+ years among males and 75+ years among females). Our findings highlight the importance of focusing heat-protection measures especially upon the elderly population, which is most heat-vulnerable and whose numbers are rising.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aleš Urban
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic.
| | - Jan Kyselý
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Eva Plavcová
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Hana Hanzlíková
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Institute of Geophysics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Petr Štěpánek
- Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno, Czech Republic; Institute of Geophysics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Regional Office Brno, Brno, Czech Republic
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Urban A, Burkart K, Kyselý J, Schuster C, Plavcová E, Hanzlíková H, Štěpánek P, Lakes T. Spatial Patterns of Heat-Related Cardiovascular Mortality in the Czech Republic. Int J Environ Res Public Health 2016; 13:ijerph13030284. [PMID: 26959044 PMCID: PMC4808947 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph13030284] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2015] [Revised: 01/31/2016] [Accepted: 02/23/2016] [Indexed: 01/28/2023]
Abstract
The study examines spatial patterns of effects of high temperature extremes on cardiovascular mortality in the Czech Republic at a district level during 1994–2009. Daily baseline mortality for each district was determined using a single location-stratified generalized additive model. Mean relative deviations of mortality from the baseline were calculated on days exceeding the 90th percentile of mean daily temperature in summer, and they were correlated with selected demographic, socioeconomic, and physical-environmental variables for the districts. Groups of districts with similar characteristics were identified according to socioeconomic status and urbanization level in order to provide a more general picture than possible on the district level. We evaluated lagged patterns of excess mortality after hot spell occurrences in: (i) urban areas vs. predominantly rural areas; and (ii) regions with different overall socioeconomic level. Our findings suggest that climatic conditions, altitude, and urbanization generally affect the spatial distribution of districts with the highest excess cardiovascular mortality, while socioeconomic status did not show a significant effect in the analysis across the Czech Republic as a whole. Only within deprived populations, socioeconomic status played a relevant role as well. After taking into account lagged effects of temperature on excess mortality, we found that the effect of hot spells was significant in highly urbanized regions, while most excess deaths in rural districts may be attributed to harvesting effects.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aleš Urban
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Boční II 1401, 14131 Prague 4, Czech Republic.
- Faculty of Science, Charles University, Albertov 6, 12843 Prague 2, Czech Republic.
| | - Katrin Burkart
- Department of Environmental Health Science, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 W 168th Street, New York, NY 10032, USA.
| | - Jan Kyselý
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Boční II 1401, 14131 Prague 4, Czech Republic.
- Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Kamýcká 129, 16521 Prague 6, Czech Republic.
- Global Change Research Centre, Czech Academy of Sciences, Bělidla 986, 60300 Brno, Czech Republic.
| | - Christian Schuster
- Department of Geography, Geoinformation Science Lab, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany.
| | - Eva Plavcová
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Boční II 1401, 14131 Prague 4, Czech Republic.
| | - Hana Hanzlíková
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Boční II 1401, 14131 Prague 4, Czech Republic.
- Institute of Geophysics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Boční II 1401, 14131 Prague 4, Czech Republic.
| | - Petr Štěpánek
- Global Change Research Centre, Czech Academy of Sciences, Bělidla 986, 60300 Brno, Czech Republic.
- Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Regional Office Brno, Kroftova 2578, 61667 Brno, Czech Republic.
| | - Tobia Lakes
- Department of Geography, Geoinformation Science Lab, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany.
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Hanzlíková H, Plavcová E, Kynčl J, Kříž B, Kyselý J. Contrasting patterns of hot spell effects on morbidity and mortality for cardiovascular diseases in the Czech Republic, 1994-2009. Int J Biometeorol 2015; 59:1673-1684. [PMID: 25744153 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-015-0974-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2014] [Revised: 02/11/2015] [Accepted: 02/11/2015] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
The study examines effects of hot spells on cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality in the population of the Czech Republic, with emphasis on differences between ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CD) and between morbidity and mortality. Daily data on CVD morbidity (hospital admissions) and mortality over 1994-2009 were obtained from national hospitalization and mortality registers and standardized to account for long-term changes as well as seasonal and weekly cycles. Hot spells were defined as periods of at least two consecutive days with average daily air temperature anomalies above the 95% quantile during June to August. Relative deviations of mortality and morbidity from the baseline were evaluated. Hot spells were associated with excess mortality for all examined cardiovascular causes (CVD, IHD and CD). The increases were more pronounced for CD than IHD mortality in most population groups, mainly in males. In the younger population (0-64 years), however, significant excess mortality was observed for IHD while there was no excess mortality for CD. A short-term displacement effect was found to be much larger for mortality due to CD than IHD. Excess CVD mortality was not accompanied by increases in hospital admissions and below-expected-levels of morbidity prevailed during hot spells, particularly for IHD in the elderly. This suggests that out-of-hospital deaths represent a major part of excess CVD mortality during heat and that for in-hospital excess deaths CVD is a masked comorbid condition rather than the primary diagnosis responsible for hospitalization.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hana Hanzlíková
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, The Czech Academy of Sciences, Boční II 1401, 141 31, Prague, Czech Republic.
- Faculty of Science, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic.
- Institute of Geophysics, The Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic.
| | - Eva Plavcová
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, The Czech Academy of Sciences, Boční II 1401, 141 31, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Jan Kynčl
- Centre for Epidemiology and Microbiology, National Institute of Public Health, Prague, Czech Republic
- Third Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Bohumír Kříž
- Centre for Epidemiology and Microbiology, National Institute of Public Health, Prague, Czech Republic
- Third Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Jan Kyselý
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, The Czech Academy of Sciences, Boční II 1401, 141 31, Prague, Czech Republic
- Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
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Plavcová E, Kyselý J. Effects of sudden air pressure changes on hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases in Prague, 1994-2009. Int J Biometeorol 2014; 58:1327-1337. [PMID: 24057084 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-013-0735-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2013] [Revised: 09/02/2013] [Accepted: 09/03/2013] [Indexed: 06/02/2023]
Abstract
Sudden weather changes have long been thought to be associated with negative impacts on human health, but relatively few studies have attempted to quantify these relationships. We use large 6-h changes in atmospheric pressure as a proxy for sudden weather changes and evaluate their association with hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Winter and summer seasons and positive and negative pressure changes are analysed separately, using data for the city of Prague (population 1.2 million) over a 16-year period (1994-2009). We found that sudden pressure drops in winter are associated with significant rise in hospital admissions. Increased CVD morbidity was observed neither for pressure drops in summer nor pressure increases in any season. Analysis of synoptic weather maps shows that large pressure drops in winter are associated with strong zonal flow and rapidly moving low-pressure systems with centres over northern Europe and atmospheric fronts affecting western and central Europe. Analysis of links between passages of strong atmospheric fronts and hospital admissions, however, shows that the links disappear if weather changes are characterised by frontal passages. Sudden pressure drops in winter are associated also with significant excess CVD mortality. As climate models project strengthening of zonal circulation in winter and increased frequency of windstorms, the negative effects of such weather phenomena and their possible changes in a warmer climate of the twenty-first century need to be better understood, particularly as their importance in inducing excess morbidity and mortality in winter may increase compared to cold spells.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eva Plavcová
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Boční II 1401, 141 31, Prague 4, Prague, Czech Republic,
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Davídkovová H, Plavcová E, Kynčl J, Kyselý J. Impacts of hot and cold spells differ for acute and chronic ischaemic heart diseases. BMC Public Health 2014; 14:480. [PMID: 24886566 PMCID: PMC4038364 DOI: 10.1186/1471-2458-14-480] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2013] [Accepted: 05/14/2014] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Many studies have reported associations between temperature extremes and cardiovascular mortality but little has been understood about differences in the effects on acute and chronic diseases. The present study examines hot and cold spell effects on ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in the Czech Republic during 1994–2009, with emphasis upon differences in the effects on acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and chronic IHD. Methods We use analogous definitions for hot and cold spells based on quantiles of daily average temperature anomalies, thus allowing for comparison of results for summer hot spells and winter cold spells. Daily mortality data were standardised to account for the long-term trend and the seasonal and weekly cycles. Periods when the data were affected by epidemics of influenza and other acute respiratory infections were removed from the analysis. Results Both hot and cold spells were associated with excess IHD mortality. For hot spells, chronic IHD was responsible for most IHD excess deaths in both male and female populations, and the impacts were much more pronounced in the 65+ years age group. The excess mortality from AMI was much lower compared to chronic IHD mortality during hot spells. For cold spells, by contrast, the relative excess IHD mortality was most pronounced in the younger age group (0–64 years), and we found different pattern for chronic IHD and AMI, with larger effects on AMI. Conclusions The findings show that while excess deaths due to IHD during hot spells are mainly of persons with chronic diseases whose health had already been compromised, cardiovascular changes induced by cold stress may result in deaths from acute coronary events rather than chronic IHD, and this effect is important also in the younger population. This suggests that the most vulnerable population groups as well as the most affected cardiovascular diseases differ between hot and cold spells, which needs to be taken into account when designing and implementing preventive actions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hana Davídkovová
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Prague, Czech Republic.
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Kyselý J, Plavcová E. A critical remark on the applicability of E-OBS European gridded temperature data set for validating control climate simulations. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2010jd014123] [Citation(s) in RCA: 64] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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Plavcová E, Kyselý J. Relationships between sudden weather changes in summer and mortality in the Czech Republic, 1986-2005. Int J Biometeorol 2010; 54:539-551. [PMID: 20169367 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-010-0303-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/11/2009] [Revised: 01/18/2010] [Accepted: 01/18/2010] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
The study examines the relationship between sudden changes in weather conditions in summer, represented by (1) sudden air temperature changes, (2) sudden atmospheric pressure changes, and (3) passages of strong atmospheric fronts; and variations in daily mortality in the population of the Czech Republic. The events are selected from data covering 1986-2005 and compared with the database of daily excess all-cause mortality for the whole population and persons aged 70 years and above. Relative deviations of mortality, i.e., ratios of the excess mortality to the expected number of deaths, were averaged over the selected events for days D-2 (2 days before a change) up to D+7 (7 days after), and their statistical significance was tested by means of the Monte Carlo method. We find that the periods around weather changes are associated with pronounced patterns in mortality: a significant increase in mortality is found after large temperature increases and on days of large pressure drops; a decrease in mortality (partly due to a harvesting effect) occurs after large temperature drops, pressure increases, and passages of strong cold fronts. The relationship to variations in excess mortality is better expressed for sudden air temperature/pressure changes than for passages of atmospheric fronts. The mortality effects are usually more pronounced in the age group 70 years and above. The impacts associated with large negative changes of pressure are statistically independent of the effects of temperature; the corresponding dummy variable is found to be a significant predictor in the ARIMA model for relative deviations of mortality. This suggests that sudden weather changes should be tested also in time series models for predicting excess mortality as they may enhance their performance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eva Plavcová
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics AS CR, Bocní II 1401, 141 31 Prague 4, Czech Republic.
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Plavcová E, Kyselý J. [Effects of sudden air temperature and pressure changes on mortality in the Czech Republic]. Epidemiol Mikrobiol Imunol 2009; 58:73-83. [PMID: 19526921] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
We have developed an algorithm for identifying sudden changes in air pressure and temperature over the Czech Republic. Such events were retrieved from the data covering in 1986-2005 and were matched with the daily numbers of all-cause deaths and deaths due to cardiovascular diseases from the national database, separately for the whole population and that aged 70 years and over. Excess daily mortality was determined by calculating deviations of the observed number of deaths from the expected number of deaths for each day in the respective groups. The relative deviation of the mortality the mean was calculated as the ratio of the excess mortality to the expected number of deaths. We used 3-hour air pressure data from 10 meteorological stations and hourly air temperature data from 9 stations representative of the Czech Republic. Pressure changes were evaluated on time scales of 3, 6 and 12 hours, separately for summer and winter time. Temperature changes were evaluated on a 24-hour time scale, separately for summer and winter season. Events characterized by pressure or temperature changes above the critical threshold and recorded within 24 hours at more than 50% of meteorological stations were retrieved. The critical thresholds were defined separately for each station using quantiles of distributions of air pressure and temperature changes. Relative mortality deviations for days D-2 (2 days before the change) to D+7 (7 days after the change) were averaged over the retrieved events. Statistical significance of the mean relative deviation was tested using the Monte Carlo method. Increased mortality followed large temperature increases and large pressure drops both in summer and winter months. Decreased mortality was observed after large pressure increases and large temperature drops in summer. Mortality variations are usually more pronounced in the population aged 70 years and over, and cardiovascular diseases account for most deaths after sudden temperature changes.
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