Use of scenario tree modelling to plan freedom from infection surveillance: Mycoplasma bovis in New Zealand

Since mid-2018, the New Zealand (NZ) Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) has been operating an eradication program for an incursion of Mycoplasma bovis. Although NZ is still delimiting the outbreak, consideration is being given to how freedom from M. bovis will be demonstrated. Rapid demonstration of freedom will minimise the length of the program, significantly reducing its financial burden. This collaborative research was undertaken to help inform planning of surveillance to demonstrate freedom after M. bovis is believed eradicated. Scenario tree modelling (STM) involves assimilating multiple surveillance system components to determine whether disease is absent. STM has infrequently been used to plan appropriate surveillance but this was the approach used here. A stochastic simulation model was implemented in R. The model represented the NZ commercial dairy and non-dairy cattle industries and the current surveillance components that are also planned to be used to gather evidence of absence of M. bovis once it is eradicated. Different surveillance intensities and risk based versus random surveillance were simulated and compared for probability of freedom, financial cost of sampling and testing and the time to demonstrate freedom. The results indicate that the current surveillance components will enable demonstration of freedom. Surveillance components included bulk tank milk testing, herd testing and testing at meat processing plants, predominantly using an imperfect ELISA. Several combinations of surveillance components appeared most efficient achieving >95 % confidence of freedom over 2-4 years, whilst sampling 4-7 % of the non-dairy herds and less than 25 % of dairy herds annually. The results indicate that surveillance intensity can be lower than is currently occurring to support the delimiting phase, thereby saving significant resources in the post eradication phase (proof of freedom phases). Further consideration is required to enable the assumption of 100 % herd specificity made in the model to be achieved. The ELISA used is very specific, but will yield some false positives that must be resolved to their true status. This may occur for example through modified diagnostic test interpretation (e.g. cut point optimisation at individual and herd level) or resolution of putative false positive herds with epidemiological investigation. In conclusion this research demonstrates the utility of STM for planning surveillance programs, and in this instance has highlighted efficient and effective surveillance components for demonstrating freedom from M. bovis in NZ. It also highlights the need to achieve 100 % specificity for M. bovis in herds tested during the proof of freedom phases.

Comparison of the current abattoir surveillance system for detection of paratuberculosis in Australian sheep with quantitative PCR tissue strategies using simulation modelling

Abattoir surveillance for Johne's disease monitoring in Australia has provided valuable feedback to producers about their flock's disease status since its commencement in 1999. The current surveillance system relies on the identification of gross lesions in sheep carcases at an abattoir, followed by sampling and histopathology testing. This manual inspection system has not been adapted to meet the changing disease situation, as infection prevalence levels have declined over time due to vaccination. This simulation study compares the current system with two alternative approaches utilising a validated quantitative (q)PCR method for the detection of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in tissues, with random systematic sampling either alone or in conjunction with sampling of a single carcass presenting gross lesions. Consigned sheep were randomly simulated as either infected or uninfected according to defined prevalence levels of infection, with varying histopathological lesion severity and the presence or absence of gross lesions. These sheep were then allocated into multiple 'lines' (group of sheep slaughtered together) within each consignment, with each line subjected to testing with the three sampling strategies for the estimation of line and flock (consignment) sensitivity. The line sensitivity described the proportion of infected lines that tested positive, whereas the flock sensitivity was the proportion of consignments from the simulated infected flocks that had one or more lines test positive for paratuberculosis infection. The tissue qPCR strategy with gross lesion detection achieved marginally higher line sensitivity than the current abattoir surveillance strategy. The simulation of unvaccinated infected flocks with low to moderate prevalence levels demonstrated similar flock sensitivity for all three sampling models. However, the current strategy had very low line sensitivity for the simulated vaccinated infected flocks when the infection prevalence level was <2%. There were substantial differences in flock sensitivity between the two tissue qPCR approaches and the current abattoir surveillance strategy for vaccinated infected flocks, whereas, only marginal differences in flock sensitivity were evident between the two tissue qPCR models. Our results demonstrate that the current strategy is not effective at identifying infected animals at very low infection prevalence levels. The tissue qPCR approach investigated in this study is better as it removes the reliance on meat inspectors to identify gross lesions and can also assist in identifying flocks that have subclinical infected sheep not displaying gross lesions. Therefore, the sheep industry may benefit from incorporating tissue qPCR for Johne's disease surveillance, however the logistics and costs of conducting this type of testing would need to be considered prior to implementing any changes.

Simulation modelling to estimate the herd-sensitivity of various pool sizes to test beef herds for Johne's disease in Australia

Johne's disease is a chronic intestinal disease affecting livestock. It leads to the shedding of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) in the faeces, wasting and eventually death, with animal welfare, economic, and trade implications. The Johne's Beef Assurance Scheme, used in Australia to determine the risk of Johne's disease on beef properties and facilitate trade, is based on testing a subset of the herd with pooled faecal quantitative PCR. This study aimed to model the herd-sensitivity of pooled faecal testing under different Australian farming scenarios. Animals from simulated herds were randomly sampled and allocated into their respective pools. Each tested pool was provided a test outcome, with herd-sensitivity estimated as the probability of detecting a truly infected herd. The models simulated the test performance for the 'Sample' and 'Check' tests used in the assurance schemes (recommended sample sizes of 300 and 50, respectively) for a range of herd sizes, infection prevalence and MAP faecal shedding levels for the pool sizes of 5, 10, 15 and 20. Sensitivity and specificity input values of each pool size were obtained from a previous laboratory investigation. The herd-sensitivity estimate increased with herd size and infection prevalence levels, regardless of the pool size. Higher herd-sensitivity was also achieved for testing scenarios involving larger sample sizes. A pool size of 10 achieved similar herd-sensitivity to that of the current pool size for the majority of the Sample test and Check test scenarios. This was particularly evident when pool-specificity was assumed to be perfect. The overall herd-sensitivity of the Check test was very low for all infection prevalence levels and pool sizes, but it more than doubled, when the sample size increased from 50 to 100 animals (11% versus 26% for a herd size of 500 cattle with a 2% infection prevalence). The results show that the majority of beef producers participating in the assurance scheme can benefit from using a larger pool size for the pooled faecal quantitative PCR testing of their herd, in comparison to the pool size currently used.

Johne's disease in Irish dairy herds: considerations for an effective national control programme

The Irish dairy industry has established a reputation for the production of safe and healthy dairy products and is seeking to further expand its export market for high value dairy products. To support its reputation, stakeholders aim to control Johne’s disease. To assist decision-makers determine the most appropriate design for an Irish programme, a narrative review of the scientific literature on the epidemiology of Johne’s disease, and selected control programmes throughout the world was undertaken. Two modelling studies specifically commissioned by Animal Health Ireland to assess testing methods used to demonstrate confidence of freedom in herds and to evaluate a range of possible surveillance strategies provided additional information. The majority of control programmes tend to be voluntary, because of the unique epidemiology of Johne’s disease and limited support for traditional regulatory approaches. While acknowledging that test performance and sub-clinical sero-negative shedders contributes to the spread of infection, a range of socio-political issues also exist that influence programme activities. The paper provides a rationale for the inclusion of a Veterinary Risk Assessment and Management Plan (VRAMP), including voluntary whole herd testing to identify infected herds and to support assurance-based trading through repeated rounds of negative testing, national surveillance for herd-level case-detection, and improved understanding of biosecurity management practices. Identification and promotion of drivers for industry and producer engagement in Ireland is likely to guide the future evolution of the Irish Johne’s Control Programme (IJCP) and further enhance its success. The provision of training, education and extension activities may encourage farmers to adopt relevant farm management practices and help them recognize that they are ultimately responsible for their herd’s health and biosecurity.

Determining an optimal pool size for testing beef herds for Johne's disease in Australia

Bovine Johne's disease (JD) is a chronic debilitating disease affecting cattle breeds worldwide. Pooled faecal samples are routinely tested by culture to detect Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Mptb) infection. More recently, a direct high throughput molecular test has been introduced in Australia for the detection of Mptb in faeces to circumvent the long culture times, however, the optimal pool size for beef cattle faeces is not known. This study aimed to determine the optimal pool size to achieve the highest test sensitivity and specificity for beef cattle. Individual archived faecal samples with low, medium and high quantities of Mptb (n = 30) were pooled with faecal samples from confirmed JD negative animals to create pool sizes of 5, 10, 15 and 20, to assess the diagnostic sensitivity relative to individual faecal qPCR. Samples from JD-free cattle (n = 10) were similarly evaluated for diagnostic specificity. Overall, 160 pools were created, with Mptb DNA extracted using magnetic bead isolation method prior to Mptb-specific IS900 quantitative PCR (qPCR). The pool size of 10 yielded the highest sensitivity 73% (95% CI: 54-88%), regardless of the quantity of Mptb DNA present in the faeces. There was no significant differences between the four different pool sizes for positive pool detection, however, there was statistical significance between low, medium and high quantities of Mptb. Diagnostic specificity was determined to be 100%. The increase in pool size greater than 10 increased the chances of PCR inhibition, which was successfully relieved with the process of DNA dilution. The results of this study demonstrate that the pool size of 10 performed optimally in the direct faecal qPCR. The results from this study can be applied in future simulation modelling studies to provide suggestions on the cost-effective testing for JD in beef cattle.

Evaluation of national surveillance methods for detection of Irish dairy herds infected with Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis

The aim of this study was to evaluate the utility and cost-effectiveness of a range of national surveillance methods for paratuberculosis in Irish dairy herds. We simulated alternative surveillance strategies applied to dairy cattle herds for the detection of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP)-infected herds (case-detection) or for estimation of confidence of herd freedom from infection (assurance testing). Strategies simulated included whole-herd milk or serum serology, serology on cull cows at slaughter, bulk milk tank serology, environmental testing, and pooled fecal testing. None of the strategies evaluated were ideal for widespread national case-detection surveillance. Herd testing with milk or serum ELISA or pooled fecal testing were the most effective methods currently available for detection of MAP-infected herds, with median herd sensitivity >60% and 100% herd specificity, although they are relatively expensive for widespread use. Environmental sampling shows promise as an alternative, with median herd sensitivity of 69%, but is also expensive unless samples can be pooled and requires further validation under Irish conditions. Bulk tank milk testing is the lowest cost option and may be useful for detecting high-prevalence herds but had median herd sensitivity <10% and positive predictive value of 85%. Cull cow sampling strategies were also lower cost but had median herd sensitivity <40% and herd positive predictive values of <50%, resulting in an increased number of test-positive herds, each of which requires follow-up herd testing to clarify status. Possible false-positive herd testing results associated with prior tuberculosis testing also presented logistical issues for both cull cow and bulk milk testing. Whole-herd milk or serum ELISA testing are currently the preferred testing strategies to estimate confidence of herd freedom from MAP in dairy herds due to the good technical performance and moderate cost of these strategies for individual herd testing. Cull cow serology and bulk tank milk sampling provide only minimal assurance value, with confidence of herd freedom increasing only minimally above the prior estimate. Different testing strategies should be considered when deciding on cost-effective approaches for case-detection compared with those used for building confidence of herd freedom (assurance testing) as part of a national program.

Modeling of alternative testing strategies to demonstrate freedom from Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis infection in test-negative dairy herds in the Republic of Ireland

In light of the various adverse effects of Johne's disease on animal productivity and the debate on the role of its causative organism, Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis, in the etiology of Crohn's disease, major dairy-producing countries around the world have implemented national control programs aimed at reducing the prevalence of this infection in cattle. A pilot control program was initiated in Ireland in 2013, with a key objective to provide farmers with test-negative dairy herds with tools and knowledge to increase their confidence of freedom over time. The aim of this study was to estimate the confidence of freedom obtained in test-negative Irish dairy herds over time with various sampling scenarios and to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of alternative scenarios for achieving an acceptable level of confidence of freedom in herds with no evidence of infection. A stochastic model was developed to simulate repeated annual testing of individual animals using ELISA and confirmatory assays over a period of 20 yr. Two scenarios modeled the current herd-screening options, whereas 14 alternative scenarios explored the effect of varying parameters from the current testing strategies, such as the frequency of testing, the eligibility criteria for selecting animals, the type of assay, the probability of introduction, and the assay sensitivity. Results showed that the current testing strategy with milk twice a year or serum once a year in all animals over 2 yr old provided the highest annual herd sensitivity, with a median value of 55%. Although the median confidence of freedom increased over time for all scenarios, the time required to reach 90 and 95% confidence of freedom was highly variable between scenarios. Under the testing scenario where serum tests were used once a year, the confidence of freedom reached 90% after 4 yr and 95% after 7 yr of testing. Some of the alternative scenarios achieved an acceptable level of confidence of freedom in a reasonable timeframe and at lesser cost than the current testing strategies. The results of this work are used to provide recommendations for the next phases of the program.

Assessing the delay to detection and the size of the outbreak at the time of detection of incursions of foot and mouth disease in Australia

The time delay to detection of an outbreak of an emergency animal disease directly affects the size of the outbreak at detection and the likelihood that the disease can be eradicated. This time delay is a direct function of the efficacy of the surveillance system in the country involved. Australia has recently completed a comprehensive review of its general surveillance system examining regional variation in both the behaviour of modelled outbreaks of foot and mouth disease and the likelihood that each outbreak will be detected and reported to government veterinary services. The size of the outbreak and the time delay from introduction to the point where 95% confidence of detection was reached showed significant (p < 0.05) regional variation with the more remote northern areas experiencing smaller outbreaks that are less likely to spread and less likely to be reported to government services than outbreaks in the more developed southern areas of Australia. Outbreaks in the more densely populated areas may take up to 43 days until a 95% confidence of detection is achieved and at that time, the outbreak may involve up to 53 farms.

Structure, dynamics and movement patterns of the Australian pig industry

OBJECTIVE

To assess management practices and movement patterns that could influence the establishment and spread of exotic animal diseases (EAD) in pigs in Australia.

METHODS

A literature review of published information and a telephone survey of 370 pig producers owning >10 pigs who were registered with the PigPass national vendor declaration scheme.

RESULTS

The movement and marketing patterns of Australian pig producers interviewed were divided into two groups based predominantly on the size of the herd. Major pig producers maintain closed herds, use artificial insemination and market direct to abattoirs. Smaller producers continue to purchase from saleyards and market to other farms, abattoirs and through saleyards in an apparently opportunistic fashion. The role of saleyards in the Australian pig industry continues to decline, with 92% of all pigs marketed directly from farm to abattoir.

CONCLUSIONS

This survey described movement patterns that will assist in modelling the potential spread of EAD in the Australian pig industry. Continued movement towards vertical integration and closed herds in the Australian pig industry effectively divides the industry into a number of compartments that mitigate against the widespread dissemination of disease to farms adopting these practices.

Risk of an equine influenza virus reservoir establishing in wild horses in New South Wales during the Australian epidemic

Australia has the world's largest population of wild equids and equine influenza (EI) was confirmed on several properties in New South Wales (NSW) close to uncontrolled areas of land during the 2007 outbreak. Likelihood and risk management assessments were carried out to determine the risk of EI infection of the wild horse populations. The likelihood of spread to the wild horse population was determined to be extremely low, but the likelihood of spread from an established wild horse reservoir back to domestic horses was considered high. The most effective mechanism of control was determined to be prevention of the spread of EI into the wild horse population through a vaccination buffer zone between EI infection foci and known wild horse populations.

Assessment of the proportion of under-reporting during the 2007 equine influenza outbreak in New South Wales, Australia

During the 2007 equine influenza (EI) outbreak in Australia, there was no objective information about the possible under-reporting of cases by horse owners either so that they would avoid movement restrictions or because of their inability to detect infection. This investigation aimed to estimate the proportion of under-reporting during the outbreak based on the results of surveillance undertaken in conjunction with vaccination. The results provided improved estimates of morbidity during the outbreak and indicated the level of under-reporting likely to occur in future outbreaks of other infectious diseases in horses in Australia.

Significant features of the epidemiology of equine influenza in New South Wales, Australia, 2007

Equine influenza (EI) was first diagnosed in the Australian horse population on 24 August 2007 at Centennial Park Equestrian Centre (CPEC) in Sydney, New South Wales (NSW), Australia. By then, the virus had already spread to many properties in NSW and southern Queensland. The outbreak in NSW affected approximately 6000 premises populated by approximately 47,000 horses. Analyses undertaken by the epidemiology section, a distinct unit within the planning section of the State Disease Control Headquarters, included the attack risk on affected properties, the level of under-reporting of affected properties and a risk assessment of the movement of horses out of the Special Restricted Area. We describe the epidemiological features and the lessons learned from the outbreak in NSW.

Quantitative analysis of the risk of spread of equine influenza associated with movements of vaccinated horses from infected areas during the Australian outbreak

Simulation models were developed to quantify the likelihood of equine influenza virus infection entering pre-movement isolation, persisting through pre- and post-movement isolation periods without being detected by scheduled laboratory testing, and escaping to infect susceptible horses at a destination. The mean probability of escape ranged from 1 in 1,200,000 to 1 in 600,000 depending on lot size. For 95% of iterations the probability of escape was less than 1 in 200,000, regardless of lot size. For a large group of 600 horses processed as multiple separate lots, the mean probability of escape ranged from 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 56,000 depending on lot size. As a result of this analysis, a modified protocol, with two tests during pre-movement isolation and an additional test during post-movement isolation at the Chief Veterinary Officer's discretion, was implemented.

Attack risk on infected properties during the 2007 equine influenza outbreak in New South Wales, Australia

The aim of this preliminary study was to estimate the proportions of seropositive horses on infected premises (IPs) in order to assess the attack risk of the disease. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to evaluate the differences in attack risks between enterprise sizes and predefined spatial clusters/regions. The average attack risk experienced during the outbreak was 96.88% (median 100%), but it differed according to the size of the enterprise and other geographic and demographic conditions. The highest attack risks were observed in the Dubbo cluster/region and the lowest in the Narrabri-Northern cluster. Properties with fewer horses were generally more likely to have higher attack risks than larger enterprises, though this was not true for all cluster/regions.

Evaluation of test-strategies for estimating probability of low prevalence of paratuberculosis in Danish dairy herds

Paratuberculosis is a chronic infection affecting cattle and other ruminants. In the dairy industry, losses due to paratuberculosis can be substantial in infected herds and several countries have implemented national programmes based on herd-classification to manage the disease. The aim of this study was to develop a method to estimate the probability of low within-herd prevalence of paratuberculosis for Danish dairy herds. A stochastic simulation model was developed using the R programming environment. Features of this model included: use of age-specific estimates of test-sensitivity and specificity; use of a distribution of observed values (rather than a fixed, low value) for design prevalence; and estimates of the probability of low prevalence (PrLow) based on a specific number of test-positive animals, rather than for a result less than or equal to a specified cut-point number of reactors. Using this model, five herd-testing strategies were evaluated: (1) milk-ELISA on all lactating cows; (2) milk-ELISA on lactating cows<or=4 years old; (3) milk-ELISA on lactating cows>4 years old; (4) faecal culture on all lactating cows; and (5) milk-ELISA plus faecal culture in series on all lactating cows. The five testing strategies were evaluated using observed milk-ELISA results from 19 Danish dairy herds as well as for simulated results from the same herds assuming that they were uninfected. Whole-herd milk-ELISA was the preferred strategy, and considered the most cost-effective strategy of the five alternatives. The five strategies were all efficient in detecting infection, i.e. estimating a low PrLow in infected herds, however, PrLow estimates for milk-ELISA on age-cohorts were too low in simulated uninfected herds and the strategies involving faecal culture were too expensive to be of practical interest. For simulated uninfected herds, whole-herd milk-ELISA resulted in median PrLow values>0.9 for most herds, depending on herd size and age-structure. None of the strategies provided enough power to establish a high PrLow in smaller herds, or herds with a younger age-structure. Despite this, it appears as if the method is a useful approach for herd-classification for most herds in the Danish dairy industry.

A comparison of methods to estimate the prevalence of ovine Johne's infection from pooled faecal samples

OBJECTIVE

To compare estimates of ovine Johne's infection prevalence produced by several alternate methods based on pooled faecal culture (PFC) results with prevalence estimates based on individual faecal culture (IFC).

PROCEDURE

Seven methods for estimating prevalence of infection based on PFC results were incorporated in a computer program, including methods for imperfect test sensitivity and specificity, for variable pool size and a Bayesian method that incorporates prior knowledge about test performance and prevalence. These methods were then used to analyse PFC data at one observation 30 months post-vaccination in a field trial of a killed vaccine for the control of OJD, undertaken on three farms in New South Wales.

RESULTS

Prevalence estimates, for three methods that assume a perfect test, were close to the IFC estimate, whereas for three other methods that assume an imperfect test, the estimated prevalence was generally higher than the IFC estimate. In comparison, the Bayesian approach produced more variable estimates that were substantially higher than the IFC estimate when an inappropriately high prior estimate of prevalence was used.

CONCLUSION

Despite the limitations of each method, two methods provided accurate and reasonable estimates of the prevalence assessed by IFC in all instances, and are appropriate for the analysis of data from this vaccine trial. One of these methods also has the advantage of allowing for variable pool size. However, further research is needed to develop a method that will simultaneously account for variation in pool size and in test sensitivity and specificity.

Demonstrating freedom from disease using multiple complex data sources 2: case study--classical swine fever in Denmark

A method for quantitative evaluation of surveillance for disease freedom has been presented in the accompanying paper (Martin et al., 2007). This paper presents an application of the methods, using as an example surveillance for classical swine fever (CSF) in Denmark in 2005. A scenario tree model is presented for the abattoir-based serology component of the Danish CSF surveillance system, in which blood samples are collected in an ad hoc abattoir sampling process, from adult pigs originating in breeding herds in Denmark. The model incorporates effects of targeting (differential risk of seropositivity) associated with age and location (county), and disease clustering within herds. A surveillance time period of one month was used in the analysis. Records for the year 2005 were analysed, representing 25,332 samples from 3528 herds; all were negative for CSF-specific antibodies. Design prevalences of 0.1-1% of herds and 5% of animals within an infected herd were used. The estimated mean surveillance system component (SSC) sensitivities (probability that the SSC would give a positive outcome given the animals processed and that the country is infected at the design prevalences) per month were 0.18, 0.63 and 0.86, for among-herd design prevalences of 0.001, 0.005 and 0.01. The probabilities that the population was free from CSF at each of these design prevalences, after a year of accumulated negative surveillance data, were 0.91, 1.00 and 1.00. Targeting adults and herds from South Jutland was estimated to give approximately 1.9, 1.6 and 1.4 times the surveillance sensitivity of a proportionally representative sampling program for these three among-herd design prevalences.

Estimate of the sensitivity of an ELISA used to detect Johne's disease in Victorian dairy cattle herds

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the sensitivity of the ELISA used in dairy cattle herds participating in the Victorian Bovine Johne's Disease Test and Control Program (TCP).

PROCEDURE

The percentage of ELISA reactors in age and test cohorts was estimated from age-specific test data derived from TCP herds with long testing histories. Age-distribution data from production-tested herds enabled estimation of reactor rates in animals that were culled or died.

RESULTS

ELISA sensitivities at the first test round in herds achieving five, six and seven annual herd tests were 16.1, 14.9 and 13.5% respectively. The ELISA sensitivity in 2, 3 and 4-year-old animals at the first test round in herds testing seven times was 1.2, 8.9 and 11.6% respectively but remained between 20 and 30% in older age-groups.

CONCLUSION

The sensitivity of the ELISA is considerably lower than previous estimates, probably because previous estimates were predominantly measured against faecal culture, which has subsequently been shown to have low sensitivity itself, and did not appreciate the long period that appears to precede detectable faecal excretion in most animals.

Evaluation of an absorbed ELISA and an agar-gel immuno-diffusion test for ovine paratuberculosis in sheep in Australia

The sensitivities and specificities of an absorbed enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and an agar-gel immuno-diffusion (AGID) test for the detection of Johne's disease in sheep were estimated using data from six known infected and 12 assumed uninfected sheep flocks. Sensitivities were estimated for all histologically positive sheep, as well as by histological lesion score, lesion type (paucibacillary or multibacillary) and sheep body-condition score, with ELISA sensitivities estimated at 95 and 99% specificity. Logistic-regression analysis was used to test for significant effects of lesion score and condition score, with flock included in the model as a random effect. Estimated specificities were 95% (95% CI: 93.4, 95.6%) and 99% (98.4, 99.4%) for ELISA cut-point ratios of 2.4 and 3.6, respectively, and 100% (99.7, 100.0%) for the AGID. Estimated sensitivities for all infected sheep were 41.5% (35.0, 48.3%), 21.9% (16.6, 27.9%) and 24.6% (19.1, 30.7%) for ELISA cut-point ratios of 2.4 and 3.6 and for AGID, respectively. Sensitivities of all tests and cut-points varied significantly between flocks and between categories of lesion score and condition score. Sensitivity ranged from 25 to 73, 10 to 47 and 9.2 to 63% between flocks, for the ELISA with cut-points of 2.4 and 3.6, and for the AGID, respectively. Sensitivity was highest in thin sheep and in sheep with multibacillary lesions. The effects of lesion type and condition score on test sensitivity were significant in the logistic regressions for the AGID and ELISA at both cut-points and the flock effect was significant for the AGID but not for the ELISA at either cut-point.

The estimated prevalence of Johne's disease infected sheep flocks in Australia

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the likely geographical distribution and flock-prevalence of ovine Johne's disease (OJD) in Australia.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional study design was used.

PROCEDURE

The results of abattoir surveillance for OJD carried out during 2000 were analysed to estimate the prevalence of infected flocks in three regions of New South Wales and in other States. A Bayesian approach was used to adjust apparent prevalence estimates for the assumed flock-sensitivity and flock-specificity of abattoir surveillance, and to allow for uncertainty about the true values of these measures.

RESULTS

The 95% probability limits for flock-prevalence at 31 December 2000 were 0.04%-1.5%, 8%-15% and 29%-39% for low, moderate and high prevalence regions of New South Wales respectively. The other States generally had an upper 97.5% probability limit of about 1% or less. Based on these estimates about 6 to 10% of flocks in New South Wales and 2.4 to 4.4% of flocks Australia-wide are likely to be infected.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that OJD has a highly clustered distribution in Australia, and provides estimates of the prevalence of infected flocks by State or region. Based on this analysis there were probably between 2000 and 3700 infected flocks in Australia at 31 December 2000, with more than 80% of these in a relatively small geographic area of central and southern New South Wales. Some States, such as Queensland and Western Australia, may have a prevalence equal or close to 0%, however the technique used was unable to demonstrate the absence of infection in these States with the intensity of surveillance undertaken to date.

Sensitivity and specificity of pooled faecal culture and serology as flock-screening tests for detection of ovine paratuberculosis in Australia

The flock-level sensitivity of pooled faecal culture and serological testing using AGID for the detection of ovine Johne's disease-infected flocks were estimated using non-gold-standard methods. The two tests were compared in an extensive field trial in 296 flocks in New South Wales during 1998. In each flock, a sample of sheep was selected and tested for ovine Johne's disease using both the AGID and pooled faecal culture. The flock-specificity of pooled faecal culture also was estimated from results of surveillance and market-assurance testing in New South Wales. The overall flock-sensitivity of pooled faecal culture was 92% (95% CI: 82.4 and 97.4%) compared to 61% (50.5 and 70.9%) for serology (assuming that both tests were 100% specific). In low-prevalence flocks (estimated prevalence <2%), the flock-sensitivities of pooled faecal culture and serology were 82% (57 and 96%) and 33% (19 and 49%), respectively, compared to 96% (85 and 99.5%) and 85% (72 and 93%), respectively, in higher-prevalence flocks (estimated prevalence > or =2%). A Bayesian approach incorporating prior knowledge on flock-specificity of pooled culture produced similar estimates and probability intervals. These estimates assume conditional independence of the two tests, and therefore might have over-estimated the true flock-sensitivities of the tests if the flock-sensitivities of pooled faecal culture and serology were correlated. The estimated minimum flock-specificity of pooled culture when used for surveillance and assurance testing was 99.1% (96.9 and 99.9%). Surveillance and assurance programs in Australia are designed to provide a flock-sensitivity of 95% for an assumed prevalence of 2%. Pooled faecal culture is performing at close to this level--whereas the flock-sensitivity of serology appears to be lower than expected, particularly in lower prevalence flocks.