Neutral evolution test of the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 and its implications in the binding to ACE2

As the SARS-CoV-2 has spread and the pandemic has dragged on, the virus continued to evolve rapidly resulting in the emergence of new highly transmissible variants that can be of public health concern. The evolutionary mechanisms that drove this rapid diversity are not well understood but neutral evolution should open the first insight. The neutral theory of evolution states that most mutations in the nucleic acid sequences are random and they can be fixed or disappear by purifying selection. Herein, we performed a neutrality test to better understand the selective pressures exerted over SARS-CoV-2 spike protein from homologue proteins of Betacoronavirus, as well as to the spikes from human clinical isolates of the virus. Specifically, Tyr and Asn have higher occurrence rates on the Receptor Binding Domain (RBD) and in the overall sequence of spike proteins of Betacoronavirus, whereas His and Arg have lower occurrence rates. The in vivo evolutionary phenomenon of SARS-CoV-2 shows that Glu, Lys, Phe, and Val have the highest probability of occurrence in the emergent viral particles. Amino acids that have higher occurrence than the expected by the neutral control, are favorable and are fixed in the sequence while the ones that have lower occurrence than expected, influence the stability and/or functionality of the protein. Our results show that most unique mutations either for SARS-CoV-2 or its variants of health concern are under selective pressures, which could be related either to the evasion of the immune system, increasing the virus' fitness or altering protein - protein interactions with host proteins. We explored the consequences of those selected mutations in the structure and protein - protein interaction with the receptor. Altogether all these forces have shaped the spike protein and the continually evolving variants.