1
|
Muratori M, Smith SJ, Kyle P, Link R, Mignone BK, Kheshgi HS. Role of the Freight Sector in Future Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios. Environ Sci Technol 2017; 51:3526-3533. [PMID: 28240022 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.6b04515] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
The freight sector's role is examined using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) for a range of climate change mitigation scenarios and future freight demand assumptions. Energy usage and CO2 emissions from freight have historically grown with a correlation to GDP, and there is limited evidence of near-term global decoupling of freight demand from GDP. Over the 21st century, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from freight are projected to grow faster than passenger transportation or other major end-use sectors, with the magnitude of growth dependent on the assumed extent of long-term decoupling. In climate change mitigation scenarios that apply a price to GHG emissions, mitigation of freight emissions (including the effects of demand elasticity, mode and technology shifting, and fuel substitution) is more limited than for other demand sectors. In such scenarios, shifting to less-emitting transportation modes and technologies is projected to play a relatively small role in reducing freight emissions in GCAM. By contrast, changes in the supply chain of liquid fuels that reduce the fuel carbon intensity, especially deriving from large-scale use of biofuels coupled to carbon capture and storage technologies, are responsible for the majority of freight emissions mitigation, followed by price-induced reduction in freight demand services.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Matteo Muratori
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory , Joint Global Change Research Institute, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, Maryland 20740, United States
- National Renewable Energy Laboratory , 15013 Denver West Parkway, Golden, Colorado 80401, United States
| | - Steven J Smith
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory , Joint Global Change Research Institute, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, Maryland 20740, United States
| | - Page Kyle
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory , Joint Global Change Research Institute, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, Maryland 20740, United States
| | - Robert Link
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory , Joint Global Change Research Institute, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, Maryland 20740, United States
| | - Bryan K Mignone
- ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company , Corporate Strategic Research, 1545 U.S. 22, Annandale, New Jersey 08801, United States
| | - Haroon S Kheshgi
- ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company , Corporate Strategic Research, 1545 U.S. 22, Annandale, New Jersey 08801, United States
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Song Y, Cervarich M, Jain AK, Kheshgi HS, Landuyt W, Cai X. The Interplay Between Bioenergy Grass Production and Water Resources in the United States of America. Environ Sci Technol 2016; 50:3010-3019. [PMID: 26866460 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.5b05239] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
We apply a land surface model to evaluate the interplay between potential bioenergy grass (Miscanthus, Cave-in-Rock, and Alamo) production, water quantity, and nitrogen leaching (NL) in the Central and Eastern U.S. Water use intensity tends to be lower where grass yields are modeled to be high, for example in the Midwest for Miscanthus and Cave-in-Rock and the upper southeastern U.S. for Alamo. However, most of these regions are already occupied by crops and forests and substitution of these biome types for ethanol production implies trade-offs. In general, growing Miscanthus consumes more water, Alamo consumes less water, and Cave-in-Rock consumes approximately the same amount of water as existing vegetation. Bioenergy grasses can maintain high productivity over time, even in water limited regions, because their roots can grow deeper and extract the water from the deep, moist soil layers. However, this may not hold where there are frequent and intense drought events, particularly in regions with shallow soil depths. One advantage of bioenergy grasses is that they mitigate nitrogen leaching relative to row crops and herbaceous plants when grown without applying N fertilizer; and bioenergy grasses, especially Miscanthus, generally require less N fertilizer application than row crops and herbaceous plants.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Yang Song
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Illinois , Urbana, Illinois 61801, United States
| | - Matthew Cervarich
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Illinois , Urbana, Illinois 61801, United States
| | - Atul K Jain
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Illinois , Urbana, Illinois 61801, United States
| | - Haroon S Kheshgi
- ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company, Annandale, New Jersey 08801, United States
| | - William Landuyt
- ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company, Annandale, New Jersey 08801, United States
| | - Ximing Cai
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois , Urbana, Illinois 61801, United States
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
|
4
|
Abstract
Photosynthetic microorganisms can produce hydrogen when illuminated, and there has been considerable interest in developing this to a commercially viable process. Its appealing aspects include the fact that the hydrogen would come from water, and that the process might be more energetically efficient than growing, harvesting, and processing crops. We review current knowledge about photobiological hydrogen production, and identify and discuss some of the areas where scientific and technical breakthroughs are essential for commercialization. First we describe the underlying biochemistry of the process, and identify some opportunities for improving photobiological hydrogen production at the molecular level. Then we address the fundamental quantum efficiency of the various processes that have been suggested, technological issues surrounding large-scale growth of hydrogen-producing microorganisms, and the scale and efficiency on which this would have to be practiced to make a significant contribution to current energy use.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Roger C Prince
- ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Co., Annandale, New Jersey 08801, USA.
| | | |
Collapse
|
5
|
|
6
|
Hoffert MI, Caldeira K, Benford G, Criswell DR, Green C, Herzog H, Jain AK, Kheshgi HS, Lackner KS, Lewis JS, Lightfoot HD, Manheimer W, Mankins JC, Mauel ME, Perkins LJ, Schlesinger ME, Volk T, Wigley TML. Advanced technology paths to global climate stability: energy for a greenhouse planet. Science 2002; 298:981-7. [PMID: 12411695 DOI: 10.1126/science.1072357] [Citation(s) in RCA: 336] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
Stabilizing the carbon dioxide-induced component of climate change is an energy problem. Establishment of a course toward such stabilization will require the development within the coming decades of primary energy sources that do not emit carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, in addition to efforts to reduce end-use energy demand. Mid-century primary power requirements that are free of carbon dioxide emissions could be several times what we now derive from fossil fuels (approximately 10(13) watts), even with improvements in energy efficiency. Here we survey possible future energy sources, evaluated for their capability to supply massive amounts of carbon emission-free energy and for their potential for large-scale commercialization. Possible candidates for primary energy sources include terrestrial solar and wind energy, solar power satellites, biomass, nuclear fission, nuclear fusion, fission-fusion hybrids, and fossil fuels from which carbon has been sequestered. Non-primary power technologies that could contribute to climate stabilization include efficiency improvements, hydrogen production, storage and transport, superconducting global electric grids, and geoengineering. All of these approaches currently have severe deficiencies that limit their ability to stabilize global climate. We conclude that a broad range of intensive research and development is urgently needed to produce technological options that can allow both climate stabilization and economic development.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Martin I Hoffert
- Department of Physics, New York University, New York, NY 10003, USA.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
7
|
Abstract
Equity is of fundamental concern in the quest for international cooperation to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations by the reduction of emissions. By modeling the carbon cycle, we estimate the global CO(2) emissions that would be required to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of CO(2) at levels ranging from 450 to 1,000 ppm. These are compared, on both an absolute and a per-capita basis, to scenarios for emissions from the developed and developing worlds generated by socio-economic models under the assumption that actions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions are not taken. Need and equity have provided strong arguments for developing countries to request that the developed world takes the lead in controlling its emissions, while permitting the developing countries in the meantime to use primarily fossil fuels for their development. Even with major and early control of CO(2) emissions by the developed world, limiting concentration to 450 ppm implies that the developing world also would need to control its emissions within decades, given that we expect developing world emissions would otherwise double over this time. Scenarios leading to CO(2) concentrations of 550 ppm exhibit a reduction of the developed world's per-capita emission by about 50% over the next 50 years. Even for the higher stabilization levels considered, the developing world would not be able to use fossil fuels for their development in the manner that the developed world has used them.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- B Bolin
- Stockholm Environmental Institute, Lilla Nygatan 1, Box 2142, 10314 Stockholm, Sweden
| | | |
Collapse
|
8
|
Affiliation(s)
- Haroon S. Kheshgi
- ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company, Annandale, New Jersey 08801; e-mail:
- Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-6335; e-mail:
| | - Roger C. Prince
- ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company, Annandale, New Jersey 08801; e-mail:
- Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-6335; e-mail:
| | - Gregg Marland
- ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company, Annandale, New Jersey 08801; e-mail:
- Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-6335; e-mail:
| |
Collapse
|
9
|
Kheshgi HS, Jain AK, Wuebbles DJ. Model-based estimation of the global carbon budget and its uncertainty from carbon dioxide and carbon isotope records. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 1999. [DOI: 10.1029/1999jd900992] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
|
10
|
Kheshgi HS, Jain AK, Kotamarthi VR, Wuebbles DJ. Future atmospheric methane concentrations in the context of the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 1999. [DOI: 10.1029/1999jd900367] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
|
11
|
|
12
|
Prince RC, Kheshgi HS. Longevity in the deep. Trends Ecol Evol 1996; 11:280. [DOI: 10.1016/0169-5347(96)30028-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
|
13
|
|
14
|
|
15
|
|
16
|
|
17
|
|