Tracking unaccounted greenhouse gas emissions due to the war in Ukraine since 2022

Accounting and reporting of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are mandatory for Parties under the Paris Agreement. Emissions reporting is important for understanding the global carbon cycle and for addressing global climate change. However, in a period of open conflict or war, military emissions increase significantly and the accounting system is not currently designed to account adequately for this source. In this paper we analyze how, during the first 18 months of the 2022/2023 full-scale war in Ukraine, GHG national inventory reporting to the UNFCCC was affected. We estimated the decrease of emissions due to a reduction in traditional human activities. We identified major, war-related, emission processes from the territory of Ukraine not covered by current GHG inventory guidelines and that are not likely to be included in national inventory reports. If these emissions are included, they will likely be incorporated in a way that is not transparent with potentially high uncertainty. We analyze publicly available data and use expert judgment to estimate such emissions from (1) the use of bombs, missiles, barrel artillery, and mines; (2) the consumption of oil products for military operations; (3) fires at petroleum storage depots and refineries; (4) fires in buildings and infrastructure facilities; (5) fires on forest and agricultural lands; and (6) the decomposition of war-related garbage/waste. Our estimate of these war-related emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide for the first 18 months of the war in Ukraine is 77 MtCO2-eq. with a relative uncertainty of +/-22 % (95 % confidence interval).

Optimizing sequestered carbon in forest offset programs: balancing accounting stringency and participation

BACKGROUND

Although there is broad agreement that negative carbon emissions may be required in order to meet the global climate change targets specified in the Paris Agreement and that carbon sequestration in the terrestrial biosphere can be an important contributor, there are important accounting issues that often discourage forest carbon sequestration projects. The legislation establishing the California forest offset program, for example, requires that offsets be "real, additional, quantifiable, permanent, verifiable, and enforceable". While these are all clearly desirable attributes, their implementation has been a great challenge in balancing complexity, expense, and risk. Most forest offset protocols carry similar accounting objectives, but often with different details, (e.g. Richards and Huebner in Carbon Manag 3(4):393-410, 2012 and Galik et al. in Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 14:677-690, 2009). The result is that the complexity, expense, and risk of participation discourage participation and make it more difficult to achieve climate mitigation goals. We focus on the requirements for accounting and permanence to illustrate that current requirements disproportionately disadvantage small landowners.

RESULTS

The simplified 1040EZ filing system for U.S. income taxes may provide insight for a protocol model that balances reward, effort, and risk, while still achieving the overall objectives of standardized offset protocols. In this paper, we present initial ideas and lay the groundwork behind a "2050EZ" protocol for forest carbon sequestration as a complement to existing protocols.

CONCLUSION

The Paris Agreement states that "Parties should take action to conserve and enhance, as appropriate, sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases." The Paris Agreement also refers to issues such as equity, sustainable development, and other non-carbon benefits. The challenge is to provide incentives for maintaining and increasing the amount of carbon sequestered in the biosphere. Monitoring and verification of carbon storage need to be sufficient to demonstrate sequestration from the atmosphere while providing clear incentives and simple accounting approaches that encourage participation by diverse participants, including small land holders.

Additionality and permanence standards in California's Forest Offset Protocol: A review of project and program level implications

A key component of California's cap-and-trade program is the use of carbon offsets as compliance instruments for reducing statewide GHG emissions. Under this program, offsets are tradable credits representing real, verifiable, quantifiable, enforceable, permanent, and additional reductions or removals of GHG emissions. This paper focuses on the permanence and additionality standards for offset credits as defined and operationalized in California's Compliance Offset Protocol for U.S. Forest Projects. Drawing on a review of the protocol, interviews, current offset projects, and existing literature, we discuss how additionality and permanence standards relate to project participation and overall program effectiveness. Specifically, we provide an overview of offset credits as compliance instruments in California's cap-and-trade program, the timeline for a forest offset project, and the factors shaping participation in offset projects. We then discuss the implications of permanence and additionality at both the project and program levels. Largely consistent with previous work, we find that stringent standards for permanent and additional project activities can present barriers to participation, but also, that there may be a trade-off between project quality and quantity (i.e. levels of participation) when considering overall program effectiveness. We summarize what this implies for California's forest offset program and provide suggestions for improvements in light of potential program diffusion and policy learning.

Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China

Nearly three-quarters of the growth in global carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and cement production between 2010 and 2012 occurred in China. Yet estimates of Chinese emissions remain subject to large uncertainty; inventories of China's total fossil fuel carbon emissions in 2008 differ by 0.3 gigatonnes of carbon, or 15 per cent. The primary sources of this uncertainty are conflicting estimates of energy consumption and emission factors, the latter being uncertain because of very few actual measurements representative of the mix of Chinese fuels. Here we re-evaluate China's carbon emissions using updated and harmonized energy consumption and clinker production data and two new and comprehensive sets of measured emission factors for Chinese coal. We find that total energy consumption in China was 10 per cent higher in 2000-2012 than the value reported by China's national statistics, that emission factors for Chinese coal are on average 40 per cent lower than the default values recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and that emissions from China's cement production are 45 per cent less than recent estimates. Altogether, our revised estimate of China's CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production is 2.49 gigatonnes of carbon (2 standard deviations = ±7.3 per cent) in 2013, which is 14 per cent lower than the emissions reported by other prominent inventories. Over the full period 2000 to 2013, our revised estimates are 2.9 gigatonnes of carbon less than previous estimates of China's cumulative carbon emissions. Our findings suggest that overestimation of China's emissions in 2000-2013 may be larger than China's estimated total forest sink in 1990-2007 (2.66 gigatonnes of carbon) or China's land carbon sink in 2000-2009 (2.6 gigatonnes of carbon).

Using timelines as part of recovery-focused practice in psychosis

The value of timelines is discussed with regard to the promotion of recovery, particularly emphasizing relapse signature and concordance in medicine-taking. Recovery approaches in contemporary mental health care rely on understanding motivations, aspirations and decision making. In the authors' experience timelines are a useful way of working together with people to make sense of experiences, of which they may only have partial or intermittent awareness. The mental health workers' philosophical approach, the tools available to them and their skills and attributes, shape the therapeutic relationship. Timelines are a useful tool in helping reach the kind of joint understanding within a therapeutic relationship which characterizes concordance. As this relationship develops, decision making including that around medicine-taking and relapse signature, can be based on this shared understanding. Timeline examples (Tables 2 and 3) based on the fictitious experiences of Philip, a young man diagnosed with schizophrenia, show their application in recovery-focused practice. Further research is needed to enhance the limited evidence base underpinning timelines as a method of facilitating concordance.

The enigma of post-natal depression: an update

This paper aims to provide a critical analysis of key concepts associated with post-natal depression (PND) to facilitate healthcare professionals with improving standards of care. Post-natal depression is often inadequately understood by healthcare professionals. The objective was to clarify and present understandings of PND. Post-natal depression may result in referral to Community Mental Health Teams and although initial contact and management is usually through Primary Care, increasingly there is involvement of liaison mental health nurses. A literature review and synthesis of research papers on PND was conducted. Using the keywords post-natal depression, post-partum, puerperium, perinatal, therapy, trial, review, systematic, 135 articles were yielded and limited to 57, which were critically reviewed and categorized into key concepts and themes. Synthesis of literature in relation to PND has facilitated construction of an evidence-based contemporary picture of clinical manifestation, aetiology, methods of screening, preventing, treating and managing PND. The veracity of the evidence surrounding the aetiology and treatment of PND is variable. Interventions are often ineffective and a vacuum in the evidence base exists leaving a dynamic environment for researchers to identify more successful ways of predicting, detecting, treating and managing PND.

Cropland carbon fluxes in the United States: increasing geospatial resolution of inventory-based carbon accounting

Net annual soil carbon change, fossil fuel emissions from cropland production, and cropland net primary production were estimated and spatially distributed using land cover defined by NASA's moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) and by the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) cropland data layer (CDL). Spatially resolved estimates of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) were developed. The purpose of generating spatial estimates of carbon fluxes, and the primary objective of this research, was to develop a method of carbon accounting that is consistent from field to national scales. NEE represents net on-site vertical fluxes of carbon. NECB represents all on-site and off-site carbon fluxes associated with crop production. Estimates of cropland NEE using moderate resolution (approximately 1 km2) land cover data were generated for the conterminous United States and compared with higher resolution (30-m) estimates of NEE and with direct measurements of CO2 flux from croplands in Illinois and Nebraska, USA. Estimates of NEE using the CDL (30-m resolution) had a higher correlation with eddy covariance flux tower estimates compared with estimates of NEE using MODIS. Estimates of NECB are primarily driven by net soil carbon change, fossil fuel emissions associated with crop production, and CO2 emissions from the application of agricultural lime. NEE and NECB for U.S. croplands were -274 and 7 Tg C/yr for 2004, respectively. Use of moderate- to high-resolution satellite-based land cover data enables improved estimates of cropland carbon dynamics.

Energy use and carbon dioxide emissions from cropland production in the United States, 1990-2004

Changes in cropland production and management influence energy consumption and emissions of CO(2) from fossil-fuel combustion. A method was developed to calculate on-site and off-site energy and CO(2) emissions for cropping practices in the United States at the county scale. Energy consumption and emissions occur on-site from the operation of farm machinery and occur off-site from the manufacture and transport of cropland production inputs, such as fertilizers, pesticides, and agricultural lime. Estimates of fossil-fuel consumption and associated CO(2) emissions for cropping practices enable (i) the monitoring of energy and emissions with changes in land management and (ii) the calculation and balancing of regional and national carbon budgets. Results indicate on-site energy use and total energy use (i.e., the sum of on-site and off-site) on U.S. croplands in 2004 ranged from 1.6 to 7.9 GJ ha(-1) yr(-1) and from 5.5 to 20.5 GJ ha(-1) yr(-1), respectively. On-site and total CO(2) emissions in 2004 ranged from 23 to 176 kg C ha(-1) yr(-1) and from 91 to 365 kg C ha(-1) yr(-1), respectively. During the period of this analysis (1990-2004), national total energy consumption for crop production ranged from 1204 to 1297 PJ yr(-1) (Petajoule = 1 x 10(15) Joule) with associated total fossil CO(2) emissions ranging from 21.5 to 23.2 Tg C yr(-1) (Teragram = 1 x 10(12) gram). The annual proportion of on-site CO(2) to total CO(2) emissions changed depending on the diversity of crops planted. Adoption of reduced tillage practices in the United States from 1990 to 2004 resulted in a net fossil emissions reduction of 2.4 Tg C.

Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions

CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel burning and industrial processes have been accelerating at a global scale, with their growth rate increasing from 1.1% y(-1) for 1990-1999 to >3% y(-1) for 2000-2004. The emissions growth rate since 2000 was greater than for the most fossil-fuel intensive of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios developed in the late 1990s. Global emissions growth since 2000 was driven by a cessation or reversal of earlier declining trends in the energy intensity of gross domestic product (GDP) (energy/GDP) and the carbon intensity of energy (emissions/energy), coupled with continuing increases in population and per-capita GDP. Nearly constant or slightly increasing trends in the carbon intensity of energy have been recently observed in both developed and developing regions. No region is decarbonizing its energy supply. The growth rate in emissions is strongest in rapidly developing economies, particularly China. Together, the developing and least-developed economies (forming 80% of the world's population) accounted for 73% of global emissions growth in 2004 but only 41% of global emissions and only 23% of global cumulative emissions since the mid-18th century. The results have implications for global equity.

Carbon Management Response curves: estimates of temporal soil carbon dynamics

Measurement of the change in soil carbon that accompanies a change in land use (e.g., forest to agriculture) or management (e.g., conventional tillage to no-till) can be complex and expensive, may require reference plots, and is subject to the variability of statistical sampling and short-term variability in weather. In this paper, we develop Carbon Management Response (CMR) curves that could be used as an alternative to in situ measurements. The CMR curves developed here are based on quantitative reviews of existing global analyses and field observations of changes in soil carbon. The curves show mean annual rates of soil carbon change, estimated time to maximum rates of change, and estimated time to a new soil carbon steady state following the initial change in management. We illustrate how CMR curves could be used in a carbon accounting framework while effectively addressing a number of potential policy issues commonly associated with carbon accounting. We find that CMR curves provide a transparent means to account for changes in soil carbon accumulation and loss rates over time, and also provide empirical relationships that might be used in the development or validation of ecological or Earth systems models.

Carbon management and biodiversity

International efforts to mitigate human-caused changes in the Earth's climate are considering a system of incentives (debits and credits) that would encourage specific changes in land use that can help to reduce the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. The two primary land-based activities that would help to minimize atmospheric carbon dioxide are carbon storage in the terrestrial biosphere and the efficient substitution of biomass fuels and bio-based products for fossil fuels and energy-intensive products. These two activities have very different land requirements and different implications for the preservation of biodiversity and the maintenance of other ecosystem services. Carbon sequestration in living forests can be pursued on lands with low productivity, i.e. on lands that are least suitable for agriculture or intensive forestry, and are compatible with the preservation of biodiversity over large areas. In contrast, intensive harvest-and-use systems for biomass fuels and products generally need more productive land to be economically viable. Intensive harvest-and-use systems may compete with agriculture or they may shift intensive land uses onto the less productive lands that currently harbor most of the Earth's biodiversity. Win-win solutions for carbon dioxide control and biodiversity are possible, but careful evaluation and planning are needed to avoid practices that reduce biodiversity with little net decrease in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Planning is more complex on a politically subdivided Earth where issues of local interest, national sovereignty, and equity come into play.

The influence of land-use change and landscape dynamics on the climate system: relevance to climate-change policy beyond the radiative effect of greenhouse gases

Our paper documents that land-use change impacts regional and global climate through the surface-energy budget, as well as through the carbon cycle. The surface-energy budget effects may be more important than the carbon-cycle effects. However, land-use impacts on climate cannot be adequately quantified with the usual metric of 'global warming potential'. A new metric is needed to quantify the human disturbance of the Earth's surface-energy budget. This 'regional climate change potential' could offer a new metric for developing a more inclusive climate protocol. This concept would also implicitly provide a mechanism to monitor potential local-scale environmental changes that could influence biodiversity.

Net carbon flux from agricultural ecosystems: methodology for full carbon cycle analyses

Agricultural ecosystems have the potential to sequester carbon in soils by altering agricultural management practices (i.e. tillage practice, cover crops, and crop rotation) and using agricultural inputs (i.e. fertilizers and irrigation) more efficiently. Changes in agricultural practices can also cause changes in CO2 emissions associated with these practices. In order to account for changes in net CO2 emissions, and thereby estimate the overall impact of carbon sequestration initiatives on the atmospheric CO2 pool, we use a methodology for full carbon cycle analysis of agricultural ecosystems. The analysis accounts for changes in carbon sequestration and emission rates with time, and results in values representing a change in net carbon flux. Comparison among values of net carbon flux for two or more systems, using the initial system as a baseline value, results in a value for relative net carbon flux. Some results from using the full carbon cycle methodology, along with US national average values for agricultural inputs, indicate that the net carbon flux averaged over all crops following conversion from conventional tillage to no-till is -189 kg C ha(-1) year(-1) (a negative value indicates net transfer of carbon from the atmosphere). The relative net carbon flux, using conventional tillage as the baseline, is -371 kg C ha(-1) year(-1), which represents the total atmospheric CO2 reduction caused by changing tillage practices. The methodology used here illustrates the importance of (1) delineating system boundaries, (2) including CO2 emissions associated with sequestration initiatives in the accounting process, and (3) comparing the new management practices associated with sequestration initiatives with the original management practices to obtain the true impact of sequestration projects on the atmospheric CO2 pool.

The reflective diary: an aid to practice-based learning

This article explores the use of reflective learning diaries in conjunction with a modified form of the Benner assessment tool (Benner 1984). The authors describe a practicum, based on the findings of a small action research study for the development and use of reflective diaries during clinical placement. The results suggest that students, preceptors, reflective diaries and assessment tools can be combined to create a positive learning environment.

A dendritic-cell-derived C-C chemokine that preferentially attracts naive T cells

Dendritic cells form a system of highly efficient antigen-presenting cells. After capturing antigen in the periphery, they migrate to lymphoid organs where they present the antigen to T cells. Their seemingly unique ability to interact with and sensitize naive T cells gives dendritic cells a central role in the initiation of immune responses and allows them to be used in therapeutic strategies against cancer, viral infection and other diseases. How they interact preferentially with naive rather than activated T lymphocytes is still poorly understood. Chemokines direct the transport of white blood cells in immune surveillance. Here we report the identification and characterization of a C-C chemokine (DC-CK1) that is specifically expressed by human dendritic cells at high levels. Tissue distribution analysis demonstrates that dendritic cells present in germinal centres and T-cell areas of secondary lymphoid organs express this chemokine. We show that DC-CK1, in contrast to RANTES, MIP-1alpha and interleukin-8, preferentially attracts naive T cells (CD45RA+). The specific expression of DC-CK1 by dendritic cells at the site of initiation of an immune response, combined with its chemotactic activity for naive T cells, suggests that DC-CK1 has an important rule in the induction of immune responses.

Analysis of dendritic cells at the genetic level

To increase our understanding of dendritic cell (DC) function we have used two approaches to search at the genetic level for molecules which are specifically expressed by these cells. First, we have performed random sequencing of cDNA libraries prepared from DC. Second, we have employed differential display PCR (DD-PCR). DD-PCR is a powerful technique for the identification at the RNA level of molecules which are expressed in a cell type-specific manner. In our study, we have compared RNA from DC with RNA from a panel of leukocyte cell lines. Here we present a summary of our findings using these two approaches, and show that both methods are complementary and can be used to identify molecules that are specific to DC.

Dendritic cells in immune response induction

The study of dendritic cells (DCs) has seen a rapid expansion in recent years, and their importance within the immune system is now widely recognized. Along with B lymphocytes and mononuclear phagocytes, DCs make up what are known as the professional antigen-presenting cells (APCs). These are cells which are capable of highly efficiently presenting antigens to the immune system in the context of both major histocompatibility complex class I and class II molecules. What makes DCs stand out from other professional APCs, however, is their seemingly unique ability to present antigen to T lymphocytes which have had no previous contact with antigen. This gives DCs central role in the initiation of immune responses, and creates possibilities for their exploitation in the development of therapeutic strategies against tumors and other diseases. What are the characteristics of DCs which enable them to carry out their specialized function? This is a question which is currently gaining much interest. While higher expression levels of the antigen-presentation machinery may account for this, there may also be as yet unidentified mechanisms at work. In this review, we will discuss the evidence for DC-mediated priming of both CD4+ and CD8+ naive T cells, both in vitro and in vivo, current ideas on how DCs achieve their potent function and the implications for the design and execution of immunotherapeutic strategies.

Generation of antimelanoma cytotoxic T lymphocytes from healthy donors after presentation of melanoma-associated antigen-derived epitopes by dendritic cells in vitro

MHC class I-restricted CTLs specific for antigens expressed by malignant cells are an important component of immune responses against human cancer. Recently, in melanoma a number of melanocyte differentiation antigens have been identified as potential tumor rejection antigens. In the present study, we show that by applying peptide-loaded dendritic cells, induced by granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor and interleukin 4 from peripheral blood monocytes of healthy donors, we were able to elicit melanoma-associated antigen-specific CTL in vitro. We demonstrate the induction of CTLs directed against HLA-A2.1 presented epitopes derived from tyrosinase, gp100, and Melan A/MART-1. Apart from lysis of peptide-loaded target cells, these CTLs displayed reactivity with HLA-A2.1+ melanoma tumor cell lines and cultured normal melanocytes endogenously expressing the target antigen. These data indicate that these CTLs recognize naturally processed and presented epitopes and that precursor CTLs against melanocyte differentiation antigens are present in healthy individuals. The ability to generate tumor-specific CTLs in vitro, using granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor/interleukin 4-induced dendritic cells, illustrates the potential use of this type of antigen-presenting cells for vaccination protocols in human cancer.

Mutation of aspartate 82 of the human C5a receptor abolishes the secretory response to human C5a in transfected rat basophilic leukemia cells

C5a is a potent chemoattractant for monocytes, neutrophils and other leukocytes. The receptor for human C5a is a member of the rhodopsin superfamily of G protein-coupled receptors and contains an aspartate residue (Asp82) within the putative second transmembrane domain conserved in all other G protein-linked receptors. We investigated the role of this residue and also the carboxy-terminal 23 residues of the C5a receptor in ligand binding and signal transduction by expressing wild-type and mutant receptors in the rat basophilic leukemia cell line RBL-2H3. Wild-type and truncated receptors coupled efficiently to effector systems, resulting in the C5a-dependent discharge of granule contents. In contrast RBL cells transfected with receptors in which Asp82 had been mutated to asparagine did not respond to human C5a by secretion despite binding human C5a with high affinity. We conclude therefore that Asp82 is not involved in the interaction with ligand but is essential for the proper transduction of the ligand binding signal.