Maternal vascular indices at 36 weeks' gestation in small and growth restricted fetuses

OBJECTIVE

To compare maternal vascular indices and hemodynamic parameters at 35-37 weeks' gestation, in pregnancies complicated by small for gestational age (SGA) fetuses and those with fetal growth restriction (FGR).

METHODS

This was a prospective observational non-intervention study in women with singleton pregnancies attending for a routine hospital visit at 35+0 to 36+6 weeks' gestation. The visit included recording of maternal demographic characteristics and medical history, vascular indices and hemodynamic parameters obtained by a non-invasive operator independent device, including pulse wave velocity, augmention index, cardiac output, stroke volume, central systolic and diastolic blood pressure, total peripheral resistance and fetal heart rate. Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy were excluded and the values in the SGA and FGR groups were compared between them and with unaffected pregnancies. Diagnosis of SGA was based on the birth of a baby with birthweight below the 10th percentile for gestational age. In FGR, in addition to a birthweight below the 10th percentile, at the 35-37 weeks scan Doppler studies had shown that the uterine artery or umbilical artery pulsatility index (PI) was above the 95th percentile for gestational age or the fetal middle cerebral artery PI was below the 5th percentile.

RESULTS

In the 6,413 women included in the study there were 605 (9.4%) cases of SGA, 133 (2.1%) of FGR and 5,675 (88.5%) unaffected by SGA or FGR. Women with SGA or FGR, compared to unaffected pregnancies, had increased peripheral vascular resistance and reduced cardiac output. Central systolic and diastolic blood pressure were also increased, whereas aortic stiffness assessed by pulse wave velocity and augmentation index did not differ between affected and unaffected pregnancies. In the FGR, compared to the SGA group, central systolic and diastolic blood pressure were higher, whereas, heart rate was lower.

CONCLUSIONS

In SGA and FGR pregnancies there are deranged maternal hemodynamic responses when these are compared to normal pregnancies. Mothers with FGR babies have higher central blood pressure compared to SGA ones, but it remains unclear whether these differences are driven by the size of the fetus or pathological fetal growth. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Comparison of competing-risks model with angiogenic factors in midgestation screening for preterm growth-related neonatal morbidity

OBJECTIVES

First, to evaluate the predictive performance for preterm growth-related neonatal morbidity of a high soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1)/placental growth factor (PlGF) ratio or low PlGF at midgestation and, second, to compare the performance of a high sFlt-1/PlGF ratio or low PlGF with that of the competing-risks model for small-for-gestational age (SGA), utilizing a combination of maternal risk factors, sonographic estimated fetal weight and uterine artery pulsatility index.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study in women attending for a routine hospital visit at 19-24 weeks' gestation in two maternity hospitals in England. The visit included recording of maternal demographic characteristics and medical history, carrying out an ultrasound scan and measuring serum PlGF and sFlt-1. The primary outcome was delivery < 32 and < 37 weeks' gestation of a SGA neonate with birth weight < 10th or < 3rd percentile, combined with neonatal unit (NNU) admission for ≥ 48 h or a composite of major neonatal morbidity. The detection rates in screening by PlGF < 10th percentile, sFlt-1/PlGF ratio > 90th percentile and the competing-risks model for SGA were estimated and then compared using McNemar's test.

RESULTS

In the study population of 40 241 women, prediction of preterm growth-related neonatal morbidity provided by the competing-risks model for SGA was superior to that of screening by low PlGF concentration or high sFlt-1/PlGF ratio. For example, at a screen-positive rate of 10.0%, as defined by the sFlt-1/PlGF ratio > 90th percentile, the competing-risks model predicted 70.1% (95% CI, 61.0-79.2%) of SGA < 10th percentile and 76.9% (95% CI, 67.6-86.3%) of SGA < 3rd percentile with NNU admission for ≥ 48 h delivered < 32 weeks' gestation. The respective values for SGA with major neonatal morbidity were 73.8% (95% CI, 64.4-83.2%) and 77.9% (95% CI, 68.0-87.8%). These were significantly higher than the respective values of 35.1% (95% CI, 25.6-44.6%), 35.9% (95% CI, 25.3-46.5%), 38.1% (95% CI, 27.7-48.5%) and 39.7% (95% CI, 28.1-51.3%) achieved by the application of the sFlt-1/PlGF ratio > 90th percentile (all P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

At midgestation, the prediction of growth-related neonatal morbidity by the competing-risks model for SGA is superior to that of a high sFlt-1/PlGF ratio or low PlGF. © 2023 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Evaluation of angiogenic factors in prediction of growth-related neonatal morbidity at term and comparison with competing-risks model

OBJECTIVES

First, to describe the distribution of biomarkers of impaired placentation in small-for-gestational-age (SGA) pregnancies with neonatal morbidity; second, to examine the predictive performance for growth-related neonatal morbidity of a high soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1)/placental growth factor (PlGF) ratio or low PlGF; and, third, to compare the performance of a high sFlt-1/PlGF ratio or low PlGF with that of the competing-risks model for SGA in predicting growth-related neonatal morbidity.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study of women attending for a routine hospital visit at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation in two maternity hospitals in England. The visit included recording of maternal demographic characteristics and medical history, an ultrasound scan and measurement of serum PlGF and sFlt-1. The primary outcome was delivery within 4 weeks after assessment and at < 42 weeks' gestation of a SGA neonate with birth weight < 10th or < 3rd percentile, combined with neonatal unit (NNU) admission for ≥ 48 h or a composite of major neonatal morbidity. The detection rates in screening by PlGF < 10th percentile, sFlt-1/PlGF ratio > 90th percentile, sFlt-1/PlGF ratio > 38 and the competing-risks model for SGA, using combinations of maternal risk factors and Z-scores of estimated fetal weight (EFW) with multiples of the median values of uterine artery pulsatility index, PlGF and sFlt-1, were estimated. The detection rates by the different methods of screening were compared using McNemar's test.

RESULTS

In the study population of 29 035 women, prediction of growth-related neonatal morbidity at term provided by the competing-risks model was superior to that of screening by low PlGF concentration or a high sFlt-1/PlGF concentration ratio. For example, at a screen-positive rate (SPR) of 13.1%, as defined by the sFlt-1/PlGF ratio > 38, the competing-risks model using maternal risk factors and EFW predicted 77.5% (95% CI, 71.7-83.3%) of SGA < 10th percentile and 89.3% (95% CI, 83.7-94.8%) of SGA < 3rd percentile with NNU admission for ≥ 48 h delivered within 4 weeks after assessment. The respective values for SGA with major neonatal morbidity were 71.4% (95% CI, 56.5-86.4%) and 90.0% (95% CI, 76.9-100%). These were significantly higher than the respective values of 41.0% (95% CI, 34.2-47.8%) (P < 0.0001), 48.8% (95% CI, 39.9-57.7%) (P < 0.0001), 37.1% (95% CI, 21.1-53.2%) (P = 0.003) and 55.0% (95% CI, 33.2-76.8%) (P = 0.035) achieved by the application of the sFlt-1/PlGF ratio > 38. At a SPR of 10.0%, as defined by PlGF < 10th percentile, the competing-risks model using maternal factors and EFW predicted 71.5% (95% CI, 65.2-77.8%) of SGA < 10th percentile and 84.3% (95% CI, 77.8-90.8%) of SGA < 3rd percentile with NNU admission for ≥ 48 h delivered within 4 weeks after assessment. The respective values for SGA with major neonatal morbidity were 68.6% (95% CI, 53.1-83.9%) and 85.0% (95% CI, 69.4-100%). These were significantly higher than the respective values of 36.5% (95% CI, 29.8-43.2%) (P < 0.0001), 46.3% (95% CI, 37.4-55.2%) (P < 0.0001), 37.1% (95% CI, 21.1-53.2%) (P = 0.003) and 55.0% (95% CI, 33.2-76.8%) (P = 0.021) achieved by the application of PlGF < 10th percentile.

CONCLUSION

At 36 weeks' gestation, the prediction of growth-related neonatal morbidity by the competing-risks model for SGA, using maternal risk factors and EFW, is superior to that of a high sFlt-1/PlGF ratio or low PlGF. © 2023 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Validation of Fetal Medicine Foundation competing-risks model for small-for-gestational-age neonate in early third trimester

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the new 36-week Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) competing-risks model for the prediction of small-for-gestational age (SGA) at an earlier gestation of 30 + 0 to 34 + 0 weeks.

METHODS

This was a retrospective multicenter cohort study of prospectively collected data on 3012 women with a singleton pregnancy undergoing ultrasound examination at 30 + 0 to 34 + 0 weeks' gestation as part of a universal screening program. We used the default FMF competing-risks model for prediction of SGA at 36 weeks' gestation combining maternal factors (age, obstetric and medical history, weight, height, smoking status, race, mode of conception), estimated fetal weight (EFW) and uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) to calculate risks for different cut-offs of birth-weight percentile and gestational age at delivery. We examined the accuracy of the model by means of discrimination and calibration.

RESULTS

The prediction of SGA < 3rd percentile improved with the addition of UtA-PI and with a shorter examination-to-delivery interval. For a 10% false-positive rate, maternal factors, EFW and UtA-PI predicted 88.0%, 74.4% and 72.8% of SGA < 3rd percentile delivered at < 37, < 40 and < 42 weeks' gestation, respectively. The respective values for SGA < 10th percentile were 86.1%, 69.3% and 66.2%. In terms of population stratification, if the biomarkers used are EFW and UtA-PI and the aim is to detect 90% of SGA < 10th percentile, then 10.8% of the population should be scanned within 2 weeks after the initial assessment, an additional 7.2% (total screen-positive rate (SPR), 18.0%) should be scanned within 2-4 weeks after the initial assessment and an additional 11.7% (total SPR, 29.7%) should be examined within 4-6 weeks after the initial assessment. The new model was well calibrated.

CONCLUSIONS

The 36-week FMF competing-risks model for SGA is also applicable and accurate at 30 + 0 to 34 + 0 weeks and provides effective risk stratification, especially for cases leading to delivery < 37 weeks of gestation. © 2023 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Long-term cardiovascular assessment of women who had a pregnancy complicated by a hypertensive disorder

BACKGROUND

Women with hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) are at increased risk of developing hypertension and cardiovascular disease later in life. However, from studies so far, it is difficult to define whether this association reflects preexisting maternal cardiovascular risk or merely reflect a potentially causal relationship between HDP and later cardiovascular risk.

OBJECTIVES

We performed detailed cardiovascular assessment in women at mid-gestation, prior to development of a HDP and at 2 years post-partum aiming to identify cardiovascular changes prior to development of HDP and to assess persistent cardiovascular alterations long after the HDP event.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study in which we performed detailed cardiovascular assessment at mid-gestation and at median of 2.3 years (interquartile range 2.1 to 2.4 years) post-partum. We examined 112 women who developed a HDP and 451 women whose pregnancy was not complicated by hypertension. We used conventional and more advanced echocardiographic techniques, i.e. speckle tracking, to accurately determine left ventricular systolic and diastolic function. We used M-mode measurements to determine left ventricular remodeling and estimate left ventricular mass. Maternal vascular status was assessed using ophthalmic artery Doppler and by calculating peak systolic velocity (PSV) ratio, as a marker of peripheral vascular resistance.

RESULTS

At mid-gestation, women who subsequently developed HDP had increased ophthalmic artery PSV ratio. These women also had mild cardiac functional and morphological alterations which were mostly accounted for by maternal cardiovascular risk factors. At 2 years post-partum, women who experienced HDP, compared to those who did not, had cardiovascular abnormalities with reduction in left ventricular systolic and diastolic function which remained after multivariable analysis. Longitudinal analysis demonstrated that the evolution of cardiovascular changes in the HDP and non-HDP groups was similar.

CONCLUSION

Mild cardiac functional and morphological alterations precede the development of HDP and such changes persist for at least 2 years postpartum. The cardiac changes are likely to be the consequence of preexisting maternal cardiovascular risk factors rather than an adverse consequence of HDP. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Impact of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy on offspring cardiovascular function. Study from fetal life to early childhood

OBJECTIVE

Epidemiological studies suggest that children following in utero exposure to hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) may be at increased long term cardiovascular risk. However, data in early childhood are lacking. We aimed to investigate the independent influence of HDP on childhood heart after accounting for differences in childhood risk factor profile.

METHODS

We performed detailed cardiovascular assessment in fetuses at mid-gestation and at a median of 2.3 years (IQR: 2.1, 2.4 years) postnatally in 71 cases where the mothers had HDP and 304 who did not have HDP.

RESULTS

There were no differences in demographic characteristics between groups but in the HDP group delivery was earlier and birthweight was lower. In fetal life, there were no significant differences in cardiac function or structure between the HDP and non-HDP groups. In early childhood, in the HDP compared to the non-HDP group, there was greater relative wall thickness (0.7 SD 0.3 vs. 0.6 SD 0.3 mm, p=0.047) and increased left ventricular mass (80.9 SD 20.4 vs. 75.7 SD 16.5, p=0.024); however, these differences were abolished following multivariable analysis. Longitudinal analysis revealed that in HDP, compared to the non-HDP group, there was no difference in the change of cardiac functional indices from fetal life to early childhood.

CONCLUSION

Epidemiological studies suggest that HDP have an adverse impact on offspring cardiovascular health, but such an effect is not apparent in fetal life or in early childhood. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of screening performance of first-trimester competing-risks prediction model for small-for-gestational age in Asian population

OBJECTIVE

To examine the external validity of the Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) competing-risks model for the prediction of small-for-gestational age (SGA) at 11-14 weeks' gestation in an Asian population.

METHODS

This was a secondary analysis of a multicenter prospective cohort study in 10 120 women with a singleton pregnancy undergoing routine assessment at 11-14 weeks' gestation. We applied the FMF competing-risks model for the first-trimester prediction of SGA, combining maternal characteristics and medical history with measurements of mean arterial pressure (MAP), uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) and serum placental growth factor (PlGF) concentration. We calculated risks for different cut-offs of birth-weight percentile (< 10th , < 5th or < 3rd percentile) and gestational age at delivery (< 37 weeks (preterm SGA) or SGA at any gestational age). Predictive performance was examined in terms of discrimination and calibration.

RESULTS

The predictive performance of the competing-risks model for SGA was similar to that reported in the original FMF study. Specifically, the combination of maternal factors with MAP, UtA-PI and PlGF yielded the best performance for the prediction of preterm SGA with birth weight < 10th percentile (SGA < 10th ) and preterm SGA with birth weight < 5th percentile (SGA < 5th ), with areas under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve (AUCs) of 0.765 (95% CI, 0.720-0.809) and 0.789 (95% CI, 0.736-0.841), respectively. Combining maternal factors with MAP and PlGF yielded the best model for predicting preterm SGA with birth weight < 3rd percentile (SGA < 3rd ) (AUC, 0.797 (95% CI, 0.744-0.850)). After excluding cases with pre-eclampsia, the combination of maternal factors with MAP, UtA-PI and PlGF yielded the best performance for the prediction of preterm SGA < 10th and preterm SGA < 5th , with AUCs of 0.743 (95% CI, 0.691-0.795) and 0.762 (95% CI, 0.700-0.824), respectively. However, the best model for predicting preterm SGA < 3rd without pre-eclampsia was the combination of maternal factors and PlGF (AUC, 0.786 (95% CI, 0.723-0.849)). The FMF competing-risks model including maternal factors, MAP, UtA-PI and PlGF achieved detection rates of 42.2%, 47.3% and 48.1%, at a fixed false-positive rate of 10%, for the prediction of preterm SGA < 10th , preterm SGA < 5th and preterm SGA < 3rd , respectively. The calibration of the model was satisfactory.

CONCLUSION

The screening performance of the FMF first-trimester competing-risks model for SGA in a large, independent cohort of Asian women is comparable with that reported in the original FMF study in a mixed European population. © 2023 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Maternal cardiovascular function at mid-gestation is related to placental angiogenesis

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether placental function, reflected in the levels of angiogenic factors, is associated with maternal cardiac function and hemodynamic responses at 19 to 24 weeks' gestation after adjustment for maternal risk factors and pregnancy complications.

METHODS

Prospective study on women with singleton pregnancies attending Kings' College Hospital, London, UK for a routine hospital visit at 19-24 weeks' gestation. We recorded maternal characteristics and measured mean arterial pressure, maternal heart rate, serum placental growth factor and soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 (sFLT-1). We also performed maternal echocardiogram to assess cardiac output and peripheral vascular resistance as well as indices of diastolic and systolic function.

RESULTS

Our cohort included 4006 women. Lower placental growth factor (PlGF) values were significantly associated with higher mean arterial pressure (MAP) (p<0.001), lower maternal heart rate (p<0.001), lower mitral valve s' velocity (p= 0.027) and higher left atrial volume (p=0.022) after adjustment for maternal characteristics and pregnancy complications. sFLT-1 was positively related to relative wall thickness (p= 0.012), whereas sFLT-1/ PlGF ratio was negatively associated with mitral valve A (p= 0.006) and positively associated with left atrial volume (p= 0.015) and MAP (p= 0.004). The magnitude of these associations was similar in the subgroup of women without any risk factors from their obstetric and medical history.

CONCLUSION

A continuous link of moderate strength between angiogenic factors and subclinical maternal cardiac function alterations is present at mid-gestation, independently of preexisting maternal risk factors and pregnancy complications. Impaired placental function appears to be related to a mild systolic and diastolic dysfunction and cardiac remodeling. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Prediction of adverse perinatal outcome at midgestation

OBJECTIVES

First, to investigate the association between adverse neonatal outcomes and birth weight and gestational age at delivery. Second, to describe the distribution of adverse neonatal outcomes within different risk strata derived by a population stratification scheme based on the midgestation risk assessment for small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonates using a competing-risks model.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational cohort study in women with a singleton pregnancy attending a routine hospital visit at 19 + 0 to 23 + 6 weeks' gestation. The incidence of neonatal unit (NNU) admission for ≥ 48 h was evaluated within different birth-weight-percentile subgroups. The pregnancy-specific risk of delivery with SGA < 10th percentile at < 37 weeks was estimated by the competing-risks model for SGA, combining maternal factors and the likelihood functions of Z-score of sonographically estimated fetal weight and uterine artery pulsatility index multiples of the median. The population was stratified into six risk categories: > 1 in 4, > 1 in 10 to ≤ 1 in 4, > 1 in 30 to ≤ 1 in 10, > 1 in 50 to ≤ 1 in 30, > 1 in 100 to ≤ 1 in 50 and ≤ 1 in 100. The outcome measures were admission to the NNU for a minimum of 48 h, perinatal death and major neonatal morbidity. The incidence of each adverse outcome was estimated in each risk stratum.

RESULTS

In the study population of 40 241 women, 0.8%, 2.5%, 10.8%, 10.2%, 19.0% and 56.7% were in the risk strata > 1 in 4, > 1 in 10 to ≤ 1 in 4, > 1 in 30 to ≤ 1 in 10, > 1 in 50 to ≤ 1 in 30, > 1 in 100 to ≤ 1 in 50 and ≤ 1 in 100, respectively. Women in higher-risk strata were more likely to deliver a baby that suffered an adverse outcome. The incidence of NNU admission for ≥ 48 h was highest in the > 1 in 4 risk stratum (31.9% (95% CI, 26.9-36.9%)) and it gradually decreased until the ≤ 1 in 100 risk stratum (5.6% (95% CI, 5.3-5.9%)). The mean gestational age at delivery in SGA cases with NNU admission for ≥ 48 h was 32.9 (95% CI, 32.2-33.7) weeks for risk stratum > 1 in 4 and progressively increased to 37.5 (95% CI, 36.8-38.2) weeks for risk stratum ≤ 1 in 100. The incidence of NNU admission for ≥ 48 h was highest for neonates with birth weight below the 1st percentile (25.7% (95% CI, 23.0-28.5%)) and decreased progressively until the 25th to < 75th percentile interval (5.4% (95% CI, 5.1-5.7%)). Preterm SGA neonates < 10th percentile had significantly higher incidence of NNU admission for ≥ 48 h compared with preterm non-SGA neonates (48.7% (95% CI, 45.0-52.4%) vs 40.9% (95% CI, 38.5-43.3%); P < 0.001). Similarly, term SGA neonates < 10th percentile had significantly higher incidence of NNU admission for ≥ 48 h compared with term non-SGA neonates (5.8% (95% CI, 5.1-6.5%) vs 4.2% (95% CI, 4.0-4.4%); P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Birth weight has a continuous association with the incidence of adverse neonatal outcomes, which is affected by gestational age. Pregnancies at high risk of SGA, estimated at midgestation, are also at increased risk for adverse neonatal outcomes. © 2023 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

External validation of Fetal Medicine Foundation competing-risks model for midgestation prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonates in Spanish population

OBJECTIVE

To examine the external validity of the new Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) competing-risks model for prediction in midgestation of small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonates.

METHODS

This was a single-center prospective cohort study of 25 484 women with a singleton pregnancy undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 19 + 0 to 23 + 6 weeks' gestation. The FMF competing-risks model for the prediction of SGA combining maternal factors and midgestation estimated fetal weight by ultrasound scan (EFW) and uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) was used to calculate risks for different cut-offs of birth-weight percentile and gestational age at delivery. The predictive performance was evaluated in terms of discrimination and calibration.

RESULTS

The validation cohort was significantly different in composition compared with the FMF cohort in which the model was developed. In the validation cohort, at a 10% false-positive rate (FPR), maternal factors, EFW and UtA-PI yielded detection rates of 69.6%, 38.7% and 31.7% for SGA < 10th percentile with delivery at < 32, < 37 and ≥ 37 weeks' gestation, respectively. The respective values for SGA < 3rd percentile were 75.7%, 48.2% and 38.1%. Detection rates in the validation cohort were similar to those reported in the FMF study for SGA with delivery at < 32 weeks but lower for SGA with delivery at < 37 and ≥ 37 weeks. Predictive performance in the validation cohort was similar to that reported in a subgroup of the FMF cohort consisting of nulliparous and Caucasian women. Detection rates in the validation cohort at a 15% FPR were 77.4%, 50.0% and 41.5% for SGA < 10th percentile with delivery at < 32, < 37 and ≥ 37 weeks, respectively, which were similar to the respective values reported in the FMF study at a 10% FPR. The model had satisfactory calibration.

CONCLUSION

The new competing-risks model for midgestation prediction of SGA developed by the FMF performs well in a large independent Spanish population. © 2023 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Competing-risks model for prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonate at 36 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVES

To develop further a competing-risks model for the prediction of a small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonate by including sonographically estimated fetal weight (EFW) and biomarkers of impaired placentation at 36 weeks' gestation, and to compare the performance of the new model with that of the traditional EFW < 10^th percentile cut-off.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study in 29 035 women with a singleton pregnancy undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation. A competing-risks model for the prediction of a SGA neonate was used. The parameters included in the prior-history model were provided in previous studies. An interaction continuous model was used for the EFW likelihood. A folded plane regression model was fitted to describe likelihoods of biomarkers of impaired placentation. Stratification plans were also developed. The new model was evaluated and compared with EFW percentile cut-offs.

RESULTS

The performance of the model was better for predicting SGA neonates delivered closer to the point of assessment. The prediction provided by maternal factors alone was improved significantly by the addition of EFW, uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) and placental growth factor (PlGF) but not by mean arterial pressure or soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1. At a 10% false-positive rate, maternal factors and EFW predicted 77.6% and 65.8% of SGA neonates < 10^th percentile delivered before 38 and 42 weeks, respectively. The respective figures for SGA < 3^rd percentile were 85.5% and 74.2%. Addition of UtA-PI and PlGF resulted in marginal improvement in prediction of SGA < 3^rd percentile requiring imminent delivery. A competing-risks approach that combines maternal factors and EFW performed better when compared with fixed EFW percentile cut-offs at predicting a SGA neonate, especially with increasing time interval between assessment and delivery. The new model was well-calibrated.

CONCLUSIONS

A competing-risks model provides effective risk stratification for a SGA neonate at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation and is superior to EFW percentile cut-offs. The use of biomarkers of impaired placentation in addition to maternal factors and fetal biometry results in small improvement of the predictive performance for a neonate with severe SGA. © 2022 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Second-trimester contingent screening for small-for-gestational-age neonate

OBJECTIVES

First, to investigate the additive value of second-trimester placental growth factor (PlGF) for the prediction of a small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonate. Second, to examine second-trimester contingent screening strategies.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study in women with singleton pregnancy undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 19-24 weeks' gestation. We used the competing-risks model for prediction of SGA. The parameters for the prior model and the likelihoods for estimated fetal weight (EFW) and uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) were those presented in previous studies. A folded-plane regression model was fitted in the dataset of this study to describe the likelihood of PlGF. We compared the prediction of screening by maternal risk factors against the prediction provided by a combination of maternal risk factors, EFW, UtA-PI and PlGF. We also examined the additive value of PlGF in a policy that uses maternal risk factors, EFW and UtA-PI.

RESULTS

The study population included 40 241 singleton pregnancies. Overall, the prediction of SGA improved with increasing degree of prematurity, with increasing severity of smallness and in the presence of coexisting pre-eclampsia. The combination of maternal risk factors, EFW, UtA-PI and PlGF improved significantly the prediction provided by maternal risk factors alone for all the examined cut-offs of birth weight and gestational age at delivery. Screening by a combination of maternal risk factors and serum PlGF improved the prediction of SGA when compared to screening by maternal risk factors alone. However, the incremental improvement in prediction was decreased when PlGF was added to screening by a combination of maternal risk factors, EFW and UtA-PI. If first-line screening for a SGA neonate with birth weight < 10^th percentile delivered at < 37 weeks' gestation was by maternal risk factors and EFW, the same detection rate of 90%, at an overall false-positive rate (FPR) of 50%, as that achieved by screening with maternal risk factors, EFW, UtA-PI and PlGF in the whole population can be achieved by reserving measurements of UtA-PI and PlGF for only 80% of the population. Similarly, in screening for a SGA neonate with birth weight < 10^th percentile delivered at < 30 weeks, the same detection rate of 90%, at an overall FPR of 14%, as that achieved by screening with maternal risk factors, EFW, UtA-PI and PlGF in the whole population can be achieved by reserving measurements of UtA-PI and PlGF for only 70% of the population. The additive value of PlGF in reducing the FPR to about 10% with a simultaneous detection rate of 90% for a SGA neonate with birth weight < 3^rd percentile born < 30 weeks, is gained by measuring PlGF in only 50% of the population when first-line screening is by maternal factors, EFW and UtA-PI.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of maternal risk factors, EFW, UtA-PI and PlGF provides effective second-trimester prediction of SGA. Serum PlGF is useful for predicting a SGA neonate with birth weight < 3^rd percentile born < 30 weeks after an inclusive assessment by maternal risk factors and biophysical markers. Similar detection rates and FPRs can be achieved by application of contingent screening strategies. © 2021 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Development and validation of model for prediction of placental dysfunction-related stillbirth from maternal factors, fetal weight and uterine artery Doppler at mid-gestation

OBJECTIVE

To examine the performance of a model combining maternal risk factors, uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) and estimated fetal weight (EFW) at 19-24 weeks' gestation, for predicting all antepartum stillbirths and those due to impaired placentation, in a training dataset used for development of the model and in a validation dataset.

METHODS

The data for this study were derived from prospective screening for adverse obstetric outcome in women with singleton pregnancy attending for routine pregnancy care at 19 + 0 to 24 + 6 weeks' gestation. The study population was divided into a training dataset used to develop prediction models for placental dysfunction-related antepartum stillbirth and a validation dataset to which the models were then applied. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to develop a model based on a combination of maternal risk factors, EFW Z-score and UtA-PI multiples of the normal median. We examined the predictive performance of the model by, first, the ability of the model to discriminate between the stillbirth and live-birth groups, using the area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve (AUC) and the detection rate (DR) at a fixed false-positive rate (FPR) of 10%, and, second, calibration by measurements of calibration slope and intercept.

RESULTS

The study population of 131 514 pregnancies included 131 037 live births and 477 (0.36%) stillbirths. There are four main findings of this study. First, 92.5% (441/477) of stillbirths were antepartum and 7.5% (36/477) were intrapartum, and 59.2% (261/441) of antepartum stillbirths were observed in association with placental dysfunction and 40.8% (180/441) were unexplained or due to other causes. Second, placental dysfunction accounted for 80.1% (161/201) of antepartum stillbirths at < 32 weeks' gestation, 54.2% (52/96) at 32 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks and 33.3% (48/144) at ≥ 37 weeks. Third, the risk of placental dysfunction-related antepartum stillbirth increased with increasing maternal weight and decreasing maternal height, was 3-fold higher in black than in white women, was 5.5-fold higher in parous women with previous stillbirth than in those with previous live birth, and was increased in smokers, in women with chronic hypertension and in parous women with a previous pregnancy complicated by pre-eclampsia and/or birth of a small-for-gestational-age baby. Fourth, in screening for placental dysfunction-related antepartum stillbirth by a combination of maternal risk factors, EFW and UtA-PI in the validation dataset, the DR at a 10% FPR was 62.3% (95% CI, 57.2-67.4%) and the AUC was 0.838 (95% CI, 0.799-0.878); these results were consistent with those in the dataset used for developing the algorithm and demonstrate high discrimination between affected and unaffected pregnancies. Similarly, the calibration slope was 1.029 and the intercept was -0.009, demonstrating good agreement between the predicted risk and observed incidence of placental dysfunction-related antepartum stillbirth. The performance of screening was better for placental dysfunction-related antepartum stillbirth at < 37 weeks' gestation compared to at term (DR at a 10% FPR, 69.8% vs 29.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

Screening at mid-gestation by a combination of maternal risk factors, EFW and UtA-PI can predict a high proportion of placental dysfunction-related stillbirths and, in particular, those that occur preterm. Such screening provides poor prediction of unexplained stillbirth or stillbirth due to other causes. © 2021 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Evaluation of the RCOG guideline for the prediction of neonates that are small for gestational age and comparison with the competing risks model

OBJECTIVE

To examine the predictive performance of the relevant guideline by the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists (RCOG) for neonates that are small for gestational age (SGA), and to compare the performance of the RCOG guideline with that of our competing risks model for SGA.

DESIGN

Prospective observational study.

SETTING

Obstetric ultrasound departments in two UK maternity hospitals.

POPULATION

A total of 96 678 women with singleton pregnancies attending for routine ultrasound examination at 19-24 weeks of gestation.

METHODS

Risks for SGA for different thresholds were computed, according to the competing risks model using maternal history, second-trimester estimated fetal weight, uterine artery pulsatility index and mean arterial pressure. The detection rates by the RCOG guideline scoring system and the competing risks model for SGA were compared, at the screen positive rate (SPR) derived from the RCOG guideline.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Small for gestational age (SGA), <10th or <3rd percentile, for different gestational age thresholds.

RESULTS

At an SPR of 22.5%, as defined by the RCOG guideline, the competing risks model predicted 56, 72 and 81% of cases of neonates that are SGA, with birthweights of <10th percentile, delivered at ≥37, <37 and <32 weeks of gestation, respectively, which were significantly higher than the respective figures of 36, 44 and 45% achieved by the application of the RCOG guideline. The respective figures for neonates that were SGA with birthweights of <3rd percentile were 66, 79, 85 and 41, 45, 44%.

CONCLUSION

The detection rate for neonates that were SGA with the competing risk approach is almost double than that obtained with the RCOG guideline.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

The competing risks approach for the prediction of SGA performs better than the existing RCOG guideline.

Competing-risks model for prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonate from estimated fetal weight at 19-24 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVE

To develop further a new competing-risks model for the prediction of a small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonate, by including second-trimester ultrasonographic estimated fetal weight (EFW).

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study in 96 678 women with singleton pregnancy undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 19-24 weeks' gestation. All pregnancies had ultrasound biometry assessment, and EFW was calculated according to the Hadlock formula. We refitted in this large dataset a previously described competing-risks model for the joint distribution of gestational age (GA) at delivery and birth-weight Z-score, according to maternal demographic characteristics and medical history, to obtain the prior distribution. The continuous likelihood of the EFW was fitted conditionally to GA at delivery and birth-weight Z-score and modified the prior distribution, according to Bayes' theorem, to obtain individualized distributions for GA at delivery and birth-weight Z-score and therefore patient-specific risks for any cut-offs for GA at delivery and birth-weight Z-score. We assessed the discriminative ability of the model for predicting SGA with, without or independently of pre-eclampsia occurrence. A calibration study was carried out. Performance of screening was evaluated for SGA defined according to the Fetal Medicine Foundation birth-weight charts.

RESULTS

The distribution of EFW, conditional to both GA at delivery and birth-weight Z-score, was best described by a regression model. For earlier gestations, the association between EFW and birth weight was steeper. The prediction of SGA by maternal factors and EFW improved for increasing degree of prematurity and greater severity of smallness but not for coexistence of pre-eclampsia. Screening by maternal factors predicted 31%, 34% and 39% of SGA neonates with birth weight < 10^th percentile delivered at ≥ 37, < 37 and < 30 weeks' gestation, respectively, at a 10% false-positive rate, and, after addition of EFW, these rates increased to 38%, 43% and 59%, respectively; the respective rates for birth weight < 3^rd percentile were 43%, 50% and 64%. The addition of EFW improved the calibration of the model.

CONCLUSION

In the competing-risks model for prediction of SGA, the performance of screening by maternal characteristics and medical history is improved by the addition of second-trimester EFW. © 2021 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Competing-risks model for prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonate from maternal characteristics, serum pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A and placental growth factor at 11-13 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVES

To expand a new competing-risks model for prediction of a small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonate, by the addition of pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and placental growth factor (PlGF), and to evaluate and compare PAPP-A and PlGF in predicting SGA.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study of 60 875 women with singleton pregnancy undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks' gestation. We fitted a folded-plane regression model for the PAPP-A and PlGF likelihoods. A previously developed maternal history model and the likelihood models were combined, according to Bayes' theorem, to obtain individualized distributions for gestational age (GA) at delivery and birth-weight Z-score. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of the model. McNemar's test was used to compare the detection rates for SGA with, without or independently of pre-eclampsia (PE) occurrence, of different combinations of maternal history, PAPP-A and PlGF, for a fixed false-positive rate.

RESULTS

The distributions of PAPP-A and PlGF depend on both GA at delivery and birth-weight Z-score, in the same continuous likelihood, according to a folded-plane regression model. The new approach offers the capability for risk computation for any desired birth-weight Z-score and GA at delivery cut-off. PlGF was consistently and significantly better than PAPP-A in predicting SGA delivered before 37 weeks, especially in cases with co-existence of PE. PAPP-A had similar performance to PlGF for the prediction of SGA without PE. At a fixed false-positive rate of 10%, the combination of maternal history, PlGF and PAPP-A predicted 33.8%, 43.8% and 48.4% of all cases of a SGA neonate with birth weight < 10^th percentile delivered at ≥ 37, < 37 and < 32 weeks' gestation, respectively. The respective values for birth weight < 3^rd percentile were 38.6%, 48.7% and 51.0%. The new model performed well in terms of risk calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of PAPP-A and PlGF values with maternal characteristics, according to Bayes' theorem, improves prediction of SGA. PlGF is a better predictor of SGA than PAPP-A, especially when PE is present. The new competing-risks model for SGA can be tailored to each pregnancy and to the relevant clinical requirements. © 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Competing-risks model for prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonate from biophysical and biochemical markers at 11-13 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVE

To develop a new competing-risks model for the prediction of a small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonate, based on maternal factors and biophysical and biochemical markers at 11-13 weeks' gestation.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study in 60 875 women with singleton pregnancy undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks' gestation. All pregnancies had pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A and placental growth factor (PlGF) measurements, 59 001 had uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) measurements and 58 479 had mean arterial pressure measurements; 57 131 cases had complete data for all biomarkers. We used a previously developed competing-risks model for the joint distribution of gestational age (GA) at delivery and birth-weight Z-score, according to maternal demographic characteristics and medical history. The likelihoods of the biophysical markers were developed by fitting folded-plane regression models, a technique that has already been used in previous studies for the likelihoods of biochemical markers. The next step was to modify the prior distribution by the likelihood, according to Bayes' theorem, to obtain individualized distributions for GA at delivery and birth-weight Z-score. We used the 57 131 cases with complete data to assess the discrimination and calibration of the model for predicting SGA with, without or independently of pre-eclampsia, by different combinations of maternal factors and biomarkers.

RESULTS

The distribution of biomarkers, conditional to both GA at delivery and birth-weight Z-score, was best described by folded-plane regression models. These continuous two-dimensional likelihoods update the joint distribution of birth-weight Z-score and GA at delivery that has resulted from a competing-risks approach; this method allows application of user-defined cut-offs. The best biophysical predictor of preterm SGA was UtA-PI and the best biochemical marker was PlGF. The prediction of SGA was consistently better for increasing degree of prematurity, greater severity of smallness, coexistence of PE and increasing number of biomarkers. The combination of maternal factors with all biomarkers predicted 34.3%, 48.6% and 59.1% of all cases of a SGA neonate with birth weight < 10^th percentile delivered at ≥ 37, < 37 and < 32 weeks' gestation, at a 10% false-positive rate. The respective values for birth weight < 3^rd percentile were 39.9%, 53.2% and 64.4%, and for birth weight < 3^rd percentile with pre-eclampsia they were 46.3%, 66.8% and 80.4%. The new model was well calibrated.

CONCLUSIONS

This study has presented a single continuous two-dimensional model for prediction of SGA for any desired cut-offs of smallness and GA at delivery, laying the ground for a personalized antenatal plan for predicting and managing SGA, in the milieu of a new inverted pyramid of prenatal care. © 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Competing-risks model for prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonate from maternal characteristics and serum pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A at 11-13 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVES

To develop a continuous likelihood model for pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A), in the context of a new competing-risks model for prediction of a small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonate, and to compare the predictive performance of the new model for SGA to that of previous methods.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study of 60 875 women with singleton pregnancy undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks' gestation. The dataset was divided randomly into a training dataset and a test dataset. The training dataset was used for PAPP-A likelihood model development. We used Bayes' theorem to combine the previously developed prior model for the joint Gaussian distribution of gestational age (GA) at delivery and birth-weight Z-score with the PAPP-A likelihood to obtain a posterior distribution. This patient-specific posterior joint Gaussian distribution of GA at delivery and birth-weight Z-score allows risk calculation for SGA defined in terms of different birth-weight percentiles and GA. The new model was validated internally in the test dataset and we compared its predictive performance to that of the risk-scoring system of the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) and that of logistic regression models for different SGA definitions.

RESULTS

PAPP-A has a continuous association with both birth-weight Z-score and GA at delivery according to a folded-plane regression. The new model, with the addition of PAPP-A, was equal or superior to several logistic regression models. The new model performed well in terms of risk calibration and consistency across different GAs and birth-weight percentiles. In the test dataset, at a false-positive rate of about 30% using the criteria defined by NICE, the new model predicted 62.7%, 66.5%, 68.1% and 75.3% of cases of a SGA neonate with birth weight < 10^th percentile delivered at < 42, < 37, < 34 and < 30 weeks' gestation, respectively, which were significantly higher than the respective values of 46.7%, 55.0%, 55.9% and 52.8% achieved by application of the NICE guidelines.

CONCLUSIONS

Using Bayes' theorem to combine PAPP-A measurement data with maternal characteristics improves the prediction of SGA and performs better than logistic regression or NICE guidelines, in the context of a new competing-risks model for the joint distribution of birth-weight Z-score and GA at delivery. © 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Competing-risks model for prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonate from maternal characteristics and medical history

BACKGROUND

The established method of identifying a group of women at high risk of delivering a small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonate, requiring increased surveillance, is use of risk scoring systems based on maternal demographic characteristics and medical history. Although this approach is relatively simple to perform, it does not provide patient-specific risks and has an uncertain performance in predicting SGA. Another approach to predict delivery of a SGA neonate is to use logistic regression models that combine maternal factors with first-trimester biomarkers. These models provide patient-specific risks for different prespecified cut-offs of birth-weight percentile and gestational age (GA) at delivery.

OBJECTIVES

First, to develop a competing-risks model for prediction of SGA based on maternal demographic characteristics and medical history, in which GA at the time of delivery and birth-weight Z-score are treated as continuous variables. Second, to compare the predictive performance of the new model for SGA neonates to that of previous methods.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study in 124 443 women with singleton pregnancy undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks' gestation. The dataset was divided randomly into a training and a test dataset. The training dataset was used to develop a model for the joint distribution of GA at delivery and birth-weight Z-score from variables of maternal characteristics and medical history. This patient-specific joint Gaussian distribution of GA at delivery and birth-weight Z-score allows risk calculation for SGA defined in terms of different birth-weight percentiles and GA. The new model was then validated in the test dataset to assess performance of screening and we compared its predictive performance to that of logistic regression models for different SGA definitions.

RESULTS

In the new model, the joint Gaussian distribution of GA at delivery and birth-weight Z-score is shifted to lower GA at delivery and birth-weight Z-score values, resulting in an increased risk for SGA, by lower maternal weight and height, black, East Asian, South Asian and mixed racial origin, medical history of chronic hypertension, diabetes mellitus and systemic lupus erythematosus and/or antiphospholipid syndrome, conception by in-vitro fertilization and smoking. In parous women, variables from the last pregnancy that increased the risk for SGA were history of pre-eclampsia or stillbirth, decreasing birth-weight Z-score and decreasing GA at delivery of the last pregnancy and interpregnancy interval < 0.5 years. In the test dataset, at a false-positive rate of 10%, the new model predicted 30.1%, 32.1%, 32.2% and 37.8% of cases of a SGA neonate with birth weight < 10^th percentile delivered at < 42, < 37, < 34 and < 30 weeks' gestation, respectively, which were similar or higher than the respective values achieved by a series of logistic regression models. The calibration study demonstrated good agreement between the predicted risks and the observed incidence of SGA in both the training and test datasets.

CONCLUSIONS

A new competing-risks model, based on maternal characteristics and medical history, provides estimation of patient-specific risks for SGA in which GA at delivery and birth-weight Z-score are treated as continuous variables. Such estimation of the a-priori risk for SGA is an essential first step in the use of Bayes' theorem to combine maternal factors with biomarkers for the continuing development of more effective methods of screening for SGA. Copyright © 2020 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Longitudinal maternal hemodynamics in pregnancies affected by fetal growth restriction

OBJECTIVE

Fetal growth restriction (FGR) is a powerful determinant of poor perinatal outcome. From our previous work in pregnancies at high risk of development of hypertension we found impaired cardiovascular adaptation early in gestation in those destined to deliver growth-restricted infants. In this study, we monitored serially maternal hemodynamics from the first to third trimester in a similar high-risk cohort, in order to determine whether this distinct hemodynamic profile found at presentation persisted throughout pregnancy in those complicated by FGR.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study based at a specialist antenatal hypertension clinic at a tertiary hospital in London. Maternal hemodynamics were evaluated serially using a non-invasive bioreactance method in pregnant women referred to the clinic with a history of chronic hypertension or a history of hypertensive disorder in a previous pregnancy. Differences in maternal hemodynamic parameters were compared between women who delivered a baby with a birth weight ≥ 10^th vs < 10^th percentile and ≥ 5^th vs < 5^th percentile.

RESULTS

Eighty-four pregnant women were included in the study. Mean gestational age at presentation was 14.3 weeks. Sixteen women delivered babies with a birth weight < 10^th percentile and 11 with a birth weight < 5^th percentile. In pregnancies with a birth weight ≥ 10^th percentile, longitudinal maternal hemodynamics showed a pattern consistent with well-established physiological changes in pregnancy, i.e. a reduction in vascular resistance and an increase in cardiac output with advancing gestation until mid-pregnancy. However, women who delivered babies with a birth weight < 10^th percentile showed a static pattern with no change during gestation and lower cardiac output and higher peripheral vascular resistance. Similar differences were seen when the 5^th percentile was used to discriminate between appropriately-grown and growth-restricted babies.

CONCLUSION

Serial assessment of maternal hemodynamics in high-risk women identifies distinctive trends associated with pregnancies destined to deliver babies with birth weights < 10^th and < 5^th percentiles. These pregnancies have a suppressed and static maternal cardiac output and stroke volume, and have consistently raised peripheral vascular resistance. This suggests that, in women with chronic hypertension or a history of hypertensive disorder in a previous pregnancy, FGR is associated with a primary and persistent failure of maternal cardiovascular adaptation in pregnancy. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Longitudinal hemodynamics in acute phase of treatment with labetalol in hypertensive pregnant women to predict need for vasodilatory therapy

OBJECTIVE

Hypertensive pregnant women who do not respond to treatment with labetalol to control blood pressure (BP), but require vasodilatory therapy, progress rapidly to severe hypertension. This could be delayed by early recognition and individualized treatment. In this study, we sought to create prediction models from data at presentation and at 1 h and 24 h after commencement of treatment to identify patients who will not have a sustained response to labetalol and therefore need vasodilatory therapy.

METHODS

The study population comprised 134 women presenting with hypertension at a UK hospital. Treatment with oral labetalol was administered when BP was > 150/100 mmHg or > 140/90 mmHg with systemic disease. BP and hemodynamic parameters were recorded at presentation and at 1 h and 24 h after commencement of treatment. Labetalol doses were titrated to maintain BP around 135/85 mmHg. Women with unresponsive BP, despite labetalol dose maximization (2400 mg/day), received additional vasodilatory therapy with nifedipine. Binary logistic and longitudinal (mixed-model) data analyses were performed to create prediction models anticipating the likelihood of hypertensive women needing vasodilatory therapy. The prediction models were created from data at presentation and at 1 h and 24 h after treatment, to assess the value of central hemodynamics relative to the predictive power of BP, heart rate and demographic variables at these intervals.

RESULTS

Twenty-two percent of our cohort required additional vasodilatory therapy antenatally. These women had higher rates of severe hypertension and delivered smaller babies at earlier gestational ages. The unresponsive women were more likely to be of black ethnicity, had higher BP and peripheral vascular resistance (PVR), and lower heart rate and cardiac output (CO) at presentation. Those who needed vasodilatory therapy showed an initial decrease in BP and PVR, which rebounded at 24 h, whereas BP and PVR in those who responded to labetalol showed a sustained decrease at 1 h and 24 h. Stroke volume and CO did not decrease during the acute phase of treatment in either group. The best model for prediction of the need for vasodilators was provided at 24 h by combining ethnicity and longitudinal BP and heart rate changes. The model achieved a detection rate of 100% for a false-positive rate of 20% and an area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve of 0.97.

CONCLUSION

Maternal demographics and hemodynamic changes in the acute phase of labetalol monotherapy provide a powerful tool to identify hypertensive pregnant patients who are unlikely to have their BP controlled by this therapy and will consequently need additional vasodilatory therapy. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

RESUMEN OBJETIVO

Las embarazadas hipertensas que no responden al tratamiento con labetalol para el control de la presión arterial (PA), pero que requieren terapia vasodilatadora, evolucionan rápidamente hacia una hipertensión severa. Ésta se puede retrasar mediante un diagnóstico precoz y un tratamiento individual. En este estudio se ha tratado de crear modelos de predicción a partir de datos al inicio del tratamiento y al cabo de 1 hora y de 24 horas después del mismo, para identificar a las pacientes que no mostrarán una respuesta constante al labetalol y que por lo tanto necesitarán terapia vasodilatadora. MÉTODOS: La población de estudio incluyó 134 mujeres con hipertensión en un hospital del Reino Unido. El tratamiento con labetalol por vía oral se administró cuando la PA fue >150/100 mm de Hg o >140/90 mm de Hg con enfermedad multisistémica. Se registró la PA y los parámetros hemodinámicos tanto al inicio como al cabo de 1 h y de 24 h después del inicio del tratamiento. Las dosis de Labetalol se ajustaron para mantener la PA en torno a los 135/85 mm de Hg. Las mujeres cuya PA no produjo respuesta, a pesar de haberles administrado la dosis máxima de labetalol (2400 mg/día), recibieron terapia vasodilatadora adicional con nifedipino. Se realizaron análisis de datos mediante logística binaria y longitudinal (modelo mixto), para crear modelos de predicción con los que pronosticar la probabilidad de la necesidad de terapia vasodilatadora en mujeres hipertensas. Los modelos de predicción se crearon a partir de datos al inicio y al cabo de 1 hora y 24 horas del tratamiento, para evaluar el valor de los parámetros hemodinámicos principales con respecto a la capacidad predictiva de la PA, la frecuencia cardíaca y las variables demográficas en estos intervalos.

RESULTADOS

El 22 % de la cohorte necesitó terapia vasodilatadora adicional antes del parto. Estas mujeres tuvieron tasas más altas de hipertensión grave y neonatos más pequeños en edades gestacionales más tempranas. Las mujeres que no respondieron al tratamiento fueron con más frecuencia de raza negra, tuvieron la PA y la resistencia vascular periférica (RVP) más alta, y la frecuencia cardíaca y el gasto cardíaco (GC) más bajos al inicio del tratamiento. Aquellas que necesitaron terapia vasodilatadora mostraron un descenso inicial de la PA y la RVP, que se recuperó al cabo de 24 h, mientras que la PA y la RVP en las que respondieron al labetalol mostraron una disminución constante al cabo de 1 h y de 24 h. El volumen sistólico y el GC no disminuyeron durante la fase aguda del tratamiento en ninguno de los grupos. El mejor modelo para la predicción de la necesidad de vasodilatadores se obtuvo a las 24 h mediante la combinación de la etnia con los cambios longitudinales de la PA y la frecuencia cardíaca. El modelo alcanzó una tasa de detección del 100% para una tasa de falsos positivos del 20% y un área bajo la curva de características operativas del receptor de 0,97. CONCLUSIÓN: Los datos demográficos maternos y los cambios hemodinámicos en la fase aguda de la monoterapia con labetalol constituyen una herramienta poderosa para identificar a las pacientes embarazadas hipertensas con pocas probabilidades de que se les pueda controlar su PA mediante esta terapia y que por lo tanto necesitarán terapia vasodilatadora adicional. : 、(blood pressure,BP),。。,1 h24 h,。 : 134。BP>150/100 mmHgBP>140/90 mmHg。1 h24 hBP。,BP135/85 mmHg。BP,()。logistic(),。1 h24 h,,BP、。 : 22%。。,BP(peripheral vascular resistance,PVR),(cardiac output,CO)。BPPVR,24 h,1 h24 hBPPVR。CO。24hBP。100%,20%,0.97。 : ,BP。.

Serial hemodynamic monitoring to guide treatment of maternal hypertension leads to reduction in severe hypertension

OBJECTIVES

To examine whether treatment for hypertension in pregnancy that is guided by serial monitoring of maternal central hemodynamics leads to a reduction in the rate of severe hypertension, defined as blood pressure ≥ 160/110 mmHg; and to assess the distinct longitudinal hemodynamic profiles associated with beta-blocker monotherapy, vasodilator monotherapy and dual agent therapy, and their relationships with outcomes, including fetal growth restriction.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study at a dedicated antenatal hypertension clinic in a tertiary UK hospital. Fifty-two untreated women presenting with hypertension were recruited consecutively and started on treatment, either with a beta-blocker or a vasodilator. The choice of initial antihypertensive agent was determined according to a model constructed previously to predict the response to the beta-blocker labetalol in pregnant women needing antihypertensive treatment. At presentation, the demographic and maternal hemodynamic variables associated with a therapeutic response to labetalol, defined as blood pressure control < 140/90 mmHg with labetalol monotherapy throughout pregnancy, were ascertained and analyzed with logistic regression to create a model to predict sustained blood pressure control as described above. The women were reviewed regularly until delivery and underwent serial hemodynamic monitoring throughout pregnancy. If their blood pressure was elevated, the prediction model was referred to again to determine if alternative antihypertensive therapy, either with additional beta-blocker or a vasodilator, should be added.

RESULTS

Treatment by referring to results of serial hemodynamic monitoring reduced the rate of severe antenatal hypertension from 18% to 3.8%. Seventy-seven percent of women were initially prescribed a beta-blocker and 23% a vasodilator. The group that maintained good blood pressure control with beta-blocker monotherapy had the best fetal and maternal outcomes. They had lower blood pressures at presentation and throughout gestation, demonstrated well-maintained cardiac output and had the lowest rates of fetal growth restriction. The groups that required dual therapy to control their blood pressure had persistently higher blood pressure and rate of fetal growth restriction. The groups that required vasodilator therapy due to high levels of peripheral vascular resistance, either at presentation or later in pregnancy, accounted for 81% of cases with fetal growth restriction.

CONCLUSION

Using serial hemodynamic monitoring in pregnancy to guide treatment of hypertension significantly reduces the rate of severe hypertension and allows identification of high-resistance, low-output hypertensive pregnancies that are associated with an increased rate of fetal growth restriction. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

RESUMEN OBJETIVOS

Examinar si el tratamiento para la hipertensión en el embarazo guiado por un seguimiento en serie de las principales constantes hemodinámicas de la madre conduce a una reducción en la tasa de hipertensión grave, definida como presión arterial ≥ 160/110 mmHg; y evaluar los diferentes perfiles hemodinámicos longitudinales asociados a la monoterapia con beta-bloqueantes, la monoterapia con vasodilatadores y la terapia dual, y su relación con los resultados, como la restricción del crecimiento fetal. MÉTODOS: Se realizó un estudio observacional prospectivo en una clínica especializada en hipertensión prenatal de un hospital de atención terciaria del Reino Unido. Se reclutaron consecutivamente a cincuenta y dos mujeres no tratadas que presentaban hipertensión y se comenzó a tratarlas, bien con un beta-bloqueante o bien con un vasodilatador. La elección del agente antihipertensivo inicial se determinó de acuerdo con un modelo elaborado previamente para predecir la respuesta al beta-bloqueante labetalol en mujeres embarazadas que necesitaban tratamiento antihipertensivo. Al inicio se registraron las características demográficas y las variables hemodinámicas maternas asociadas con una respuesta terapéutica al labetalol, definida como un control de la presión arterial < 140/90 mmHg con monoterapia de labetalol durante todo el embarazo que se analizó mediante regresión logística para crear un modelo con el que pronosticar un control sostenido de la presión arterial, como se describe arriba. Las mujeres fueron sometidas a revisiones regulares hasta el momento del parto y se les hizo un seguimiento hemodinámico en serie durante todo el embarazo. Si la presión arterial era elevada, se empleó de nuevo el modelo de predicción para determinar si se debería añadir un tratamiento antihipertensivo alternativo, ya sea con un beta-bloqueante adicional o con un vasodilatador.

RESULTADOS

El tratamiento que tuvo en cuenta los resultados del seguimiento hemodinámico en serie redujo la tasa de hipertensión prenatal grave del 18% al 3,8%. Al 77% de las mujeres se les recetó inicialmente un y al 23% un vasodilatador. El grupo que mantuvo un buen control de la presión arterial con monoterapia de beta-bloqueantes logró mejores resultados fetales y maternos. Este grupo tuvo menor presión arterial al inicio y durante toda la gestación, mostró un gasto cardíaco en buen estado y tuvo las tasas más bajas de restricción del crecimiento fetal. Los grupos que requirieron terapia dual para controlar su presión arterial mostraron persistentemente una mayor presión arterial y un mayor ritmo de restricción del crecimiento fetal. Los grupos que requirieron tratamiento vasodilatador debido a los altos niveles de resistencia vascular periférica, tanto al inicio como durante el embarazo, representaron el 81% de los casos con restricción del crecimiento fetal. CONCLUSIÓN: El uso de un seguimiento hemodinámico en serie en el embarazo como guía para el tratamiento de la hipertensión reduce significativamente la tasa de hipertensión severa y permite la identificación de embarazos con hipertensión de alta resistencia y malos resultados, asociados con una mayor tasa de restricción del crecimiento fetal. : (≥ 160/110 mmHg);β、,()。 : 。52、,β。β。,(<140/90 mmHg),logistic,。,。,(β)。 : ,18%3.8%。77%β,23%。β。,,。,。,81%。 : ,,、。.

Maternal ethnicity and its impact on the haemodynamic and blood pressure response to labetalol for the treatment of antenatal hypertension

Objective

Blood pressure (BP) control outside pregnancy is associated with a reduction in adverse cardiovascular events, and in pregnancy with improved outcomes. Outside pregnancy, there is evidence β-blockers are less effective in controlling BP in black populations. However, in pregnancy, labetalol is recommended as a universal first-line treatment, without evidence for the impact of ethnicity on its efficacy. We sought to compare haemodynamic responses to labetalol in black and white pregnant patients.

Methods

This was a prospective observational cohort study in a London teaching hospital. Maternal haemodynamics were assessed in 120 pregnant women treated with labetalol monotherapy. Measurements were taken at presentation, 1 and 24 h after treatment. Participants were monitored regularly until delivery. Statistical analysis was performed by multilevel modelling.

Results

Both groups exhibited similar temporal trends in haemodynamic changes over the first 24 h following labetalol. Both showed a reduction in BP and peripheral vascular resistance within 1 h and in heart rate after 24 h. There was no change in cardiac output and stroke volume in either group. BP control (<140/90) was achieved at 1 h in 79.7% of the white and 77% of the black cohort. At 24 h, control was achieved among 83.1% and 63.9%, and up to the immediate intrapartum period control was achieved in 89.8% and 70.4% of white and black patients, respectively.

Conclusions

There is no difference in the acute haemodynamic changes and hypertension can be controlled throughout pregnancy with labetalol monotherapy in excess of 70% pregnant black and white patients.

Increased Maternal Serum Interleukin-6 Concentrations at 11 to 14 Weeks of Gestation in Low Risk Pregnancies Complicated with Gestational Diabetes Mellitus: Development of a Prediction Model

The aim of the study was to examine interleukin-6 (IL-6) maternal serum concentration at 11 to 14 gestational weeks in normal pregnancies and pregnancies complicated by gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and to create first trimester prediction models for GDM. Case-control study conducted in a Fetal Medicine Unit. Study population included 40 GDM cases and 94 controls. Maternal characteristics, first trimester ultrasound markers, biochemical indices, and IL-6 levels were used for our analysis. IL-6 was related to maternal weight among the maternal characteristics, (R(2)=0.0679, p=0.01). IL-6 was increased (p=0.001) in the GDM group (median=2 pg/ml) compared to the control group (median=1.5 pg/ml) even after adjustment for maternal weight. IL-6 was inversely related to birth weight adjusted for gestational age at delivery (r=-0.3382, p<0.001) and glucose levels at oral glucose test. Maternal weight and age were the only predictors of GDM among the maternal characteristics [Detection Rate (DR)=59.4%; for 25% False Positive Rate (FPR); Area Under the Curve (AUC)=0.7291; Model R(2)=0.1096, p<0.001]. IL-6 alone was a significant predictor of GDM (DR=51.3%; for 25% FPR; AUC=0.6731; Model R(2)=0.0616, p<0.001). Combination of maternal characteristics with IL-6 yielded an improved prediction (DR=67.5%; for 25% FPR; AUC=0.7586; Model R(2)=0.1521, p<0.001). IL-6 concentrations are increased at 11-14 weeks in pregnancies with GDM. Combination of maternal characteristics and maternal serum IL-6 levels may provide effective first trimester screening for GDM.

Cervical length in late second and third trimesters: a mixture model for predicting delivery

OBJECTIVES

To examine the distribution of cervical length (CL) in the late second and third trimesters of pregnancy and construct survival models for spontaneous delivery.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study included 647 women with a singleton pregnancy who had routine CL measurements taken by transvaginal ultrasonography between 24 and 40 weeks' gestation. Only one measurement per patient was included in the analysis. Exploratory data analysis revealed that the distribution of CL measurements was a mixture of two Gaussian distributions, and subsequently a mixture model was applied to describe the distribution of CL. Changes in CL in relation to gestational age were examined by regression analysis and measurements were converted to Z-scores. Survival analysis was applied to the subgroups identified, to describe the probability of delivery throughout gestation.

RESULTS

CL was best described by a mixture model of two subgroups with Gaussian distribution, one including women with a long cervix (73.85% of the study population, mean CL of 28.2 ± 4.45 mm) and the other including women with a short cervix (26.15% of the study population, mean CL of 12.3 ± 5.14 mm). CL was dependent on gestational age (GA), therefore conversion to Z-scores was employed in the analysis. Women with a short cervix had a higher probability for spontaneous delivery (hazard ratio (HR), 1.807; P < 0.001) than did women with a long cervix, after adjustment for GA at the time of measurement (GA HR, 1.115; P < 0.001). In both subgroups, the probability of spontaneous delivery was predicted by the GA and CL Z-scores. Survival models for the prediction of spontaneous delivery were constructed separately for the short-cervix subgroup (GA HR, 1.085; P < 0.001 and CL Z-score HR, 0.819; P = 0.003) and the long-cervix subgroup (GA HR, 1.130; P < 0.001 and CL Z-score HR, 0.864; P = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

CL follows a mixture of two Gaussian distributions, one for a short and one for a long cervix. Late second-trimester/third-trimester CL measurement may be of value in estimating the probability for spontaneous delivery at any given gestational age.

Increased Maternal Serum Interleukin-6 Concentrations at 11 to 14 Weeks of Gestation in Low Risk Pregnancies Complicated with Gestational Diabetes Mellitus: Development of a Prediction Model

The aim of the study was to examine interleukin-6 (IL-6) maternal serum concentration at 11 to 14 gestational weeks in normal pregnancies and pregnancies complicated by gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and to create first trimester prediction models for GDM. Case-control study conducted in a Fetal Medicine Unit. Study population included 40 GDM cases and 94 controls. Maternal characteristics, first trimester ultrasound markers, biochemical indices, and IL-6 levels were used for our analysis. IL-6 was related to maternal weight among the maternal characteristics, (R(2)=0.0679, p=0.01). IL-6 was increased (p=0.001) in the GDM group (median=2 pg/ml) compared to the control group (median=1.5 pg/ml) even after adjustment for maternal weight. IL-6 was inversely related to birth weight adjusted for gestational age at delivery (r=-0.3382, p<0.001) and glucose levels at oral glucose test. Maternal weight and age were the only predictors of GDM among the maternal characteristics [Detection Rate (DR)=59.4%; for 25% False Positive Rate (FPR); Area Under the Curve (AUC)=0.7291; Model R(2)=0.1096, p<0.001]. IL-6 alone was a significant predictor of GDM (DR=51.3%; for 25% FPR; AUC=0.6731; Model R(2)=0.0616, p<0.001). Combination of maternal characteristics with IL-6 yielded an improved prediction (DR=67.5%; for 25% FPR; AUC=0.7586; Model R(2)=0.1521, p<0.001). IL-6 concentrations are increased at 11-14 weeks in pregnancies with GDM. Combination of maternal characteristics and maternal serum IL-6 levels may provide effective first trimester screening for GDM.

Performance of third-trimester ultrasound for prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonates and evaluation of contingency screening policies

OBJECTIVES

To assess the performance of third-trimester fetal biometry and fetal Doppler studies for the prediction of small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonates, and to explore contingency strategies using a first-trimester prediction model based on maternal and fetal parameters and third-trimester ultrasound.

METHODS

This was an observational cross-sectional study of uncomplicated singleton pregnancies. Risk assessment for chromosomal abnormality was carried out in 4702 pregnancies using a combination of ultrasound markers (fetal nuchal translucency thickness (NT) and nasal bone assessment) and biochemistry (free beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A)) at 11 to 13 + 6 weeks. Maternal demographic characteristics and method of conception were recorded. Third-trimester (30-34 weeks) fetal biometry (biparietal diameter (BPD), head circumference (HC), abdominal circumference (AC) and femur length (FL)) and umbilical artery (UA) and middle cerebral artery Doppler studies were performed routinely in a subgroup (n = 2310). Reference ranges for birth weight were constructed using the cohort of 4702 women, and neonates were classified as small (SGA, ≤ 5th centile) or appropriate (AGA) for gestational age. First-trimester, third-trimester and integrated first- and third-trimester prediction models for SGA were constructed using regression analysis and three different contingency strategies of rescanning in the third trimester were investigated.

RESULTS

According to the areas under the receiver-operating characteristics curves (AUCs), AC (AUC = 0.85) and ultrasound-estimated fetal weight (EFW, AUC = 0.87) were equally good predictors of SGA. The model was marginally improved by the addition of UA Doppler, smoking status and first-trimester indices (free β-hCG and PAPP-A multiples of the median) (combined model, AUC = 0.88), but the difference was not statistically significant. A contingency strategy of rescanning 50% of the population in the third trimester according to the risk estimated by a first-trimester prediction model yielded a detection rate of 79% for a 25% screen-positive rate.

CONCLUSION

Third-trimester ultrasound is effective in screening for SGA in uncomplicated pregnancies. The use of a contingency screening policy can reduce the need for unnecessary examinations.

Minimal deviation adenocarcinoma of the cervix in a patient with a high-grade cervical squamous intraepithelial lesion: case report and review of the literature

Minimal deviation cervical adenocarcinoma, otherwise known as adenoma malignum, is a rare and particularly well differentiated type of cervical adenocarcinoma, and is often misdiagnosed because of its benign-looking histological features. Adenoma malignum represents only 1-3% of all cervical adenocarcinomas. The Papanicolaou smear as well as punch biopsies can fail in the detection of adenoma malignum. We present the case of a 55-year-old woman diagnosed as having microinvasive minimal deviation of the adenocarcinoma cervix, after conisation for a high-grade cervical squamous intraepithelial lesion. The patient was referred for an abnormal pap smear to our colposcopy clinic where the punch biopsies performed failed to diagnose the disease. The consequent cone biopsy because of CIN3, provided us with a definite diagnosis of adenoma malignum. Subsequently, the patient underwent a radical hysterectomy and pelvic lymph node dissection. The histologic examination was normal. Coexistence of a squamous intraepithelial lesion with adenoma malignum is extremely uncommon.

Primary melanoma of the vagina: a case report

Primary malignant vaginal melanoma is a rare vaginal tumour accompanied by an extremely high risk of local recurrence, distant metastasis and a small survival rate. Due to the fact that vaginal melanoma is quite uncommon there is lack of powerful prospective studies in the literature, thus the treatment choice remains controversial. An 85-year-old woman with a primary malignant vaginal melanoma located on the left lateral aspect of the distal vagina, with the greatest diameter almost 5 cm, was referred to our clinic. There was not any sign of local or distant metastasis identified. According to the most recently published data in the international literature, we decided along with the patient to perform conservative dissection of the tumor with free surgical margins as the appropriate mode of therapy. Radiotherapy, chemotherapy or radical extirpation cannot increase the survival time, even if there is a local or distant spread of melanoma.