The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator: development and validation of a tool for identifying African surgical patients at risk of severe postoperative complications

BACKGROUND

The African Surgical Outcomes Study (ASOS) showed that surgical patients in Africa have a mortality twice the global average. Existing risk assessment tools are not valid for use in this population because the pattern of risk for poor outcomes differs from high-income countries. The objective of this study was to derive and validate a simple, preoperative risk stratification tool to identify African surgical patients at risk for in-hospital postoperative mortality and severe complications.

METHODS

ASOS was a 7-day prospective cohort study of adult patients undergoing surgery in Africa. The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator was constructed with a multivariable logistic regression model for the outcome of in-hospital mortality and severe postoperative complications. The following preoperative risk factors were entered into the model; age, sex, smoking status, ASA physical status, preoperative chronic comorbid conditions, indication for surgery, urgency, severity, and type of surgery.

RESULTS

The model was derived from 8799 patients from 168 African hospitals. The composite outcome of severe postoperative complications and death occurred in 423/8799 (4.8%) patients. The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator includes the following risk factors: age, ASA physical status, indication for surgery, urgency, severity, and type of surgery. The model showed good discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.805 and good calibration with c-statistic corrected for optimism of 0.784.

CONCLUSIONS

This simple preoperative risk calculator could be used to identify high-risk surgical patients in African hospitals and facilitate increased postoperative surveillance.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT03044899.

A brief bedside visual art intervention decreases anxiety and improves pain and mood in patients with haematologic malignancies

Treatment of cancer-related symptoms represents a major challenge for physicians. The purpose of this pilot study was to determine whether a brief bedside visual art intervention (BVAI) facilitated by art educators improves mood, reduces pain and anxiety in patients with haematological malignancies. Thirty-one patients (21 women and 10 men) were invited to participate in a BVAI where the goal of the session was to teach art technique for ~30 min. Primary outcome measures included the change in visual analog scale, the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory and the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule scale, from baseline prior to and immediately post-BVAI. Total of 21 patients (19 women and two men) participated. A significant improvement in positive mood and pain scores (p = .003 and p = .017 respectively) as well as a decrease in negative mood and anxiety (p = .016 and p = .001 respectively) was observed. Patients perceived BVAI as overall positive (95%) and wished to participate in future art-based interventions (85%). This accessible experience, provided by artists within the community, may be considered as an adjunct to conventional treatments in patients with cancer-related mood symptoms and pain, and future studies with balanced gender participation may support the generalisability of these findings.