Observation of Seven Astrophysical Tau Neutrino Candidates with IceCube

We report on a measurement of astrophysical tau neutrinos with 9.7 yr of IceCube data. Using convolutional neural networks trained on images derived from simulated events, seven candidate ν_{τ} events were found with visible energies ranging from roughly 20 TeV to 1 PeV and a median expected parent ν_{τ} energy of about 200 TeV. Considering backgrounds from astrophysical and atmospheric neutrinos, and muons from π^{±}/K^{±} decays in atmospheric air showers, we obtain a total estimated background of about 0.5 events, dominated by non-ν_{τ} astrophysical neutrinos. Thus, we rule out the absence of astrophysical ν_{τ} at the 5σ level. The measured astrophysical ν_{τ} flux is consistent with expectations based on previously published IceCube astrophysical neutrino flux measurements and neutrino oscillations.

Retention of Antibiotic Cement Delivery Implants in Orthopedic Infection Associated With United Fractures Does Not Increase Recurrence Risk

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate whether retention of antibiotic cement delivery devices after resolution of orthopaedic infection is associated with recurrence.

METHODS

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort.

SETTING

Academic medical center.

PATIENT SELECTION CRITERIA

Patients with a fracture definitively treated with internal fixation that went on to unite and develop a confirmed fracture-related infection or osteomyelitis after a remote fracture surgery and had implantation of antibiotic-impregnated cement for infection management.

OUTCOME MEASURES AND COMPARISONS

Patients were divided into whom the antibiotic implants were retained (Retained Cohort) and whom the antibiotic implants were removed (Removed Cohort). Outcome measures included clinical infection resolution, infection recurrence, time to resolution of infection signs, symptoms and laboratory values, reoperation and readmission rates, and need for soft tissue coverage (local flap vs. free tissue transfer) because of recurrence.

RESULTS

Of 98 patients treated for fracture-related infection in united fractures or osteomyelitis after a remote fracture surgery, 39 (39.8%) underwent implantation of antibiotic-impregnated cement delivery devices: 21 (21.4%) beads, 7 (7.1%) rods, and 11 (11.2%) blocks. Twenty patients (51.3%) comprised the Retained Cohort and 19 patients (48.7%) comprised the Removed Cohort. There were few differences in demographics ([American Society of Anesthesiology Score, P = 0.026] and [diabetes, P = 0.047]), infection location, and pathogenic profiles. The cohorts demonstrated no difference in eventual resolution of infection (100% in the Retained Cohort, 95% in the Removed Cohort, P = 0.487) and experienced similar time to clinical infection resolution, based on signs, symptoms, and laboratory values ( P = 0.360). There was no difference in incidence of subsequent infection recurrence after clinical infection resolution (1 recurrence Retained vs. 2 recurrences Removed, P = 0.605) for those considered "cured." Compared with the Retained Cohort, the Removed Cohort underwent more reoperations (0.40 vs. 1.84 reoperations, P < 0.001) and admissions after implantation ( P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Retention of antibiotic-impregnated cement delivery devices in patients with orthopaedic infection after fractured bones that have healed was not associated with infection recurrence. Additional surgical intervention with the sole purpose of removing antibiotic delivery devices may not be warranted.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Achievement of Target Gain Larger than Unity in an Inertial Fusion Experiment

On December 5, 2022, an indirect drive fusion implosion on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) achieved a target gain G_{target} of 1.5. This is the first laboratory demonstration of exceeding "scientific breakeven" (or G_{target}>1) where 2.05 MJ of 351 nm laser light produced 3.1 MJ of total fusion yield, a result which significantly exceeds the Lawson criterion for fusion ignition as reported in a previous NIF implosion [H. Abu-Shawareb et al. (Indirect Drive ICF Collaboration), Phys. Rev. Lett. 129, 075001 (2022)PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.129.075001]. This achievement is the culmination of more than five decades of research and gives proof that laboratory fusion, based on fundamental physics principles, is possible. This Letter reports on the target, laser, design, and experimental advancements that led to this result.

Midregional proatrial naturetic peptide (MRproANP) and copeptin (COPAVP) as predictors of all-cause mortality in recently diagnosed mild to moderate COPD-results from COSYCONET

BACKGROUND

MRproANP and COPAVP are prognostic markers for mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Furthermore, these biomarkers predict mortality due to cardiovascular diseases, which are important prognostically determining comorbidities in patients with COPD. However, less is known about these biomarkers in recently diagnosed mild to moderate COPD. Therefore, we analyzed these biomarkers as potential predictors of mortality in recently diagnosed mild to moderate COPD.

METHODS

The blood biomarkers considered were copeptin (COPAVP), midregional adrenomedullin (MRproADM), midregional proatrial naturetic peptide (MRproANP), and fibrinogen. Analyses were performed in patients with stable "recently diagnosed mild to moderate COPD" defined by GOLD grades 0-2 and diagnosis of COPD ≤ 5 years prior to inclusion into the COSYCONET cohort (COPD and Systemic Consequences-Comorbidities Network), using Cox regression analysis with stepwise adjustment for multiple COPD characteristics, comorbidities, troponin and NT-proBNP.

RESULTS

655 patients with recently diagnosed mild to moderate COPD were included. In the initial regression model, 43 of 655 patients died during the 6-year follow-up, in the final model 27 of 487. Regression analyses with adjustment for confounders identified COPAVP and MRproANP as statistically robust biomarkers (p < 0.05 each) of all-cause mortality, while MRproADM and fibrinogen were not. The fourth quartile of MRproANP (97 pmol/L) was associated with a hazard ratio of 4.5 (95%CI: 1.6; 12.8), and the fourth quartile of COPAVP (9.2 pmol/L) with 3.0 (1.1; 8.0). The results for MRproANP were confirmed in the total cohort of grade 0-4 (n = 1470 finally).

CONCLUSION

In patients with recently diagnosed mild to moderate COPD, elevated values of COPVP and in particular MRproANP were robust, independent biomarkers for all-cause mortality risk after adjustment for multiple other factors. This suggests that these markers might be considered in the risk assessment of early COPD.

Extra-mandibular Osteoradionecrosis after the Treatment of Head and Neck Cancer

AIMS

Osteoradionecrosis (ORN) is a serious toxicity of head and neck radiotherapy. It predominantly affects the mandible. Extra-mandibular ORN is rare. The aim of this study was to report the incidence and outcomes of extra-mandibular ORNs from a large institutional database.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In total, 2303 head and neck cancer patients were treated with radical or adjuvant radiotherapy. Of these, extra-mandibular ORN developed in 13 patients (0.5%).

RESULTS

Maxillary ORNs (n = 8) were a consequence of the treatment of various primaries (oropharynx = 3, sinonasal = 2, maxilla = 2, parotid = 1). The median interval from the end of radiotherapy to the development of ORN was 7.5 months (range 3-42 months). The median radiotherapy dose in the centre of the ORN was 48.5 Gy (range 22-66.5 Gy). Four patients (50%) healed in 7, 14, 20 and 41 months. All temporal bone ORNs (n = 5) developed after treatment to the parotid gland (of a total of 115 patients who received radiotherapy for parotid gland malignancy). The median interval from the end of radiotherapy to the development of ORN was 41 months (range 20-68 months). The median total dose in the centre of the ORN was 63.5 Gy (range 60.2-65.3 Gy). ORN healed in only one patient after 32 months of treatment with repeated debridement and topical betamethasone cream.

CONCLUSION

Extra-mandibular ORN is a rare late toxicity and this current study provides useful information on its incidence and outcome. The risk of temporal bone ORN should be considered in the treatment of parotid malignancies and patients should be counselled. More research is required to determine the optimal management of extra-mandibular ORN, particularly on the role of the PENTOCLO regimen.

Four-Month High-Dose Rifampicin Regimens for Pulmonary Tuberculosis

High-Dose Rifampicin Regimen for Pulmonary TuberculosisThis randomized, controlled trial tested the efficacy and safety of high-dose rifampicin (1200 or 1800 mg/d) as part of the treatment regimen for pulmonary tuberculosis. Four-month high-dose rifampicin regimens had no dose-limiting side effects but failed to meet noninferiority criteria compared with the standard 6-month control regimen.

Observation of high-energy neutrinos from the Galactic plane

The origin of high-energy cosmic rays, atomic nuclei that continuously impact Earth's atmosphere, is unknown. Because of deflection by interstellar magnetic fields, cosmic rays produced within the Milky Way arrive at Earth from random directions. However, cosmic rays interact with matter near their sources and during propagation, which produces high-energy neutrinos. We searched for neutrino emission using machine learning techniques applied to 10 years of data from the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. By comparing diffuse emission models to a background-only hypothesis, we identified neutrino emission from the Galactic plane at the 4.5σ level of significance. The signal is consistent with diffuse emission of neutrinos from the Milky Way but could also arise from a population of unresolved point sources.

Expert consensus on neurodevelopmental outcomes in pregnancy pharmacovigilance studies

Background: Exposure in utero to certain medications can disrupt processes of fetal development, including brain development, leading to a continuum of neurodevelopmental difficulties. Recognizing the deficiency of neurodevelopmental investigations within pregnancy pharmacovigilance, an international Neurodevelopmental Expert Working Group was convened to achieve consensus regarding the core neurodevelopmental outcomes, optimization of methodological approaches and barriers to conducting pregnancy pharmacovigilance studies with neurodevelopmental outcomes. Methods: A modified Delphi study was undertaken based on stakeholder and expert input. Stakeholders (patient, pharmaceutical, academic and regulatory) were invited to define topics, pertaining to neurodevelopmental investigations in medication-exposed pregnancies. Experts were identified for their experience regarding neurodevelopmental outcomes following medicinal, substances of misuse or environmental exposures in utero. Two questionnaire rounds and a virtual discussion meeting were used to explore expert opinion on the topics identified by the stakeholders. Results: Twenty-five experts, from 13 countries and professionally diverse backgrounds took part in the development of 11 recommendations. The recommendations focus on the importance of neurodevelopment as a core feature of pregnancy pharmacovigilance, the timing of study initiation and a core set of distinct but interrelated neurodevelopmental skills or diagnoses which require investigation. Studies should start in infancy with an extended period of investigation into adolescence, with more frequent sampling during rapid periods of development. Additionally, recommendations are made regarding optimal approach to neurodevelopmental outcome measurement, comparator groups, exposure factors, a core set of confounding and mediating variables, attrition, reporting of results and the required improvements in funding for potential later emerging effects. Different study designs will be required depending on the specific neurodevelopmental outcome type under investigation and whether the medicine in question is newly approved or already in widespread use. Conclusion: An improved focus on neurodevelopmental outcomes is required within pregnancy pharmacovigilance. These expert recommendations should be met across a complementary set of studies which converge to form a comprehensive set of evidence regarding neurodevelopmental outcomes in pregnancy pharmacovigilance.

Exploring views of members of the public and policymakers on the acceptability of population level dietary and active-travel policies: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

There is limited evidence on what shapes the acceptability of population level dietary and active-travel policies in England. This information would be useful in the decision-making process about which policies should be implemented and how to increase their effectiveness and sustainability. To fill this gap, we explored public and policymakers' views about factors that influence public acceptability of dietary and active-travel policies and how to increase public acceptability for these policies.

METHODS

We conducted online, semi-structured interviews with 20 members of the public and 20 policymakers in England. A purposive sampling frame was used to recruit members of the public via a recruitment agency, based on age, sex, socioeconomic status and ethnicity. Policymakers were recruited from existing contacts within our research collaborations and via snowball sampling. We explored different dietary and active-travel policies that varied in their scope and focus. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and analysed using thematic reflexive analysis with both inductive and deductive coding.

RESULTS

We identified four themes that informed public acceptability of dietary and active-travel policies: (1) perceived policy effectiveness, i.e., policies that included believable mechanisms of action, addressed valued co-benefits and barriers to engage in the behaviour; (2) perceived policy fairness, i.e., policies that provided everyone with an opportunity to benefit (mentioned only by the public), equally considered the needs of various population subgroups and rewarded 'healthy' behaviours rather than only penalising 'unhealthy' behaviours; (3) communication of policies, i.e., policies that were visible and had consistent and positive messages from the media (mentioned only by policymakers) and (4) how to improve policy support, with the main suggestion being an integrated strategy addressing multiple aspects of these behaviours, inclusive policies that consider everyone's needs and use of appropriate channels and messages in policy communication.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings highlight that members' of the public and policymakers' support for dietary and active-travel policies can be shaped by the perceived effectiveness, fairness and communication of policies and provide suggestions on how to improve policy support. This information can inform the design of acceptable policies but can also be used to help communicate existing and future policies to maximise their adoption and sustainability.

The effect of polyphenols in post stroke adults: A systematic review of randomised controlled trials

BACKGROUND

After a stroke, survivors are often left with significant disabilities and are at a greater risk of recurrent strokes. It is vital stroke survivors receive effective treatments to assist with rehabilitation and reduce risk factors for secondary stroke. Observational and preclinical studies have highlighted the promising role of polyphenols in these regards.

METHODS

A systematic review of original research which assessed the role of polyphenols on health outcomes in post stroke adults was conducted. PROQUEST, SCOPUS (Elsevier), MEDLINE (EBSCO), Embase and Cochrane Library databases were searched up to the 29th of October 2021.

RESULTS

A total of 9 studies met the full inclusion criteria and were included in this review. Several classes of polyphenols were assessed including hydroxybenzoic acids, stilbenes and flavonoids. Numerous health outcomes were assessed including vascular function, stroke disability, blood pressure, blood glucose and c-reactive protein. The majority of the studies included in this review (n = 8) note improvements in the polyphenol groups for at least one outcome measure. However, small sample sizes, short trial length and reporting bias prevent firm conclusions from being drawn.

CONCLUSION

This review provides promising preliminary evidence that polyphenols may be beneficial for post stroke adults, however, more research is required. To ensure reliable methodology and replication of results, future studies should include outcome statistics and effect sizes. Trials with a longer duration and large sample size should also be considered.

Primary Versus Conversion Reverse Total Shoulder Arthroplasty for Complex Proximal Humerus Fractures in the Elderly: A Retrospective Comparative Study

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study was to compare clinical, implant related and patient reported outcomes of shoulders converted to reverse total shoulder arthroplasty (rTSA) following a previous ORIF to when rTSA is used as a primary treatment modality for an acute proximal humerus fracture (PHF) in patients ≥65 years of age.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was performed on a prospectively collected cohort of patients who underwent primary-rTSA for PHF versus a cohort who underwent conversion arthroplasty with rTSA following fracture repair between 2009-2020. Outcomes were assessed preoperatively and at the latest follow-up. Demographics and outcomes between cohorts were analyzed using conventional statistics as well as stratification by MCID and SCB thresholds where applicable.

RESULTS

406 patients met criteria, 322 primary-rTSA for PHF versus 84 conversion-rTSA after failed PHF ORIF. The conversion-rTSA cohort was on average seven years younger (65±10 vs 72±9, p<0.001). Follow-up was similar between cohorts, average 47.1 months (range:24-138 months). The percentage of Neer 3-(41.9%vs45.2%) and 4-part (49.1%vs46.4%) PHFs were similar (p>0.99). The primary-rTSA cohort achieved higher forward elevation (FE), external rotation, PROMs including simple shoulder test (SST), American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons (ASES) Score, University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) score, Constant Score, Shoulder Arthroplasty Smart (SAS) Score and Shoulder Pain and Disability Index (SPADI) score at a minimum of 24-months postop (p<0.05 for all). Patient satisfaction was higher in the primary-rTSA group compared to the conversion-rTSA cohort (p=0.002). Patient reported outcome measures uniformly favored the primary-rTSA cohort, rising to the level of statistical significance for FE, ASES and SPADI (p<0.05) relative to SCB. The AE rate and revision rate in the conversion-rTSA cohort was higher than the primary-rTSA cohort [(26.2% vs. 2.5%, p<0.001) and (8.3% vs. 1.6%, p=0.001)]. At 10-years postop revision free implant survival rates are significantly lower in the conversion cohort compared to the primary cohort, 66% vs 94% (p=0.012). Lastly, the hazard ratio of revision was 3.69 in the conversion cohort compared to only 1.0 in the primary-rTSA cohort.

CONCLUSION

The current study demonstrates that elderly patients who undergo rTSA as a conversion procedure following previous osteosynthesis do not fare as well as those treated with rTSA for an acute displaced PHF. Conversion patients report lower patient satisfaction, have significantly restricted range of shoulder motion, higher risk of complications, higher risk of revision, poorer patient reported outcomes, and shorter implant survival at 10 years compared to those undergoing acute rTSA.

Direct observation of electric field-induced magnetism in a molecular magnet

We report the direct observation of an electrically-induced magnetic susceptibility in the molecular nano- magnet [Fe₃O(O₂CPh)₆(py)₃]ClO₄·py, an Fe₃ trimer. This magnetoelectric effect results from the breaking of spatial inversion symmetry due to the spin configurations of the antiferromagnetic trimer. Both static and very low frequency electric fields were used. Fractional changes of the magnetic susceptibility of 11 ppb[Formula: see text] per kVm^-1 for the temperature range 8.5 < T < 13.5 K were observed for applied electric fields up to 62 kV m^-1. The changes in susceptibility were measured using a tunnel diode oscillator operating at liquid helium temperatures while the sample is held at a higher regulated temperature.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on cross-country runners: changes in training, sleep, diet, and mental health

Objective: Determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the changes in training, sleep, diet, and mental health of cross-country runners. Participants: Cross-country runners from NCAA Division II institutes. Methods: Wilcoxon signed-rank test was performed to analyze survey responses to ordinal questions on the survey while Spearman's rank correlation analysis (ρ) was used to calculate correlation between after the start of pandemic questions. Data was marked significant at p < 0.05. Results: Analysis of the survey responses revealed that cross-country runners were more likely to experience feelings of depression (p < 0.001), lack of motivation (p < 0.001), and higher daily stress (p < 0.001) after the start of the pandemic. After the start of the pandemic, runners running less days per week were more likely to report an increased feeling of depression (ρ=-0.315, p = 0.008) and lack of motivation (ρ=-0.458, p < 0.001). Conclusions: The present study underscores the importance of training, sleep, diet, and mental health amongst cross-country runners.

DDDR-25. CO-INHIBITION OF KINASE SIGNALING PATHWAYS AND EPIGENETIC REGULATORS OVERCOMES COMPENSATORY EFFECTS IN PEDIATRIC HIGH-GRADE GLIOMAS

Pediatric high-grade gliomas (pHGG) confer poor survival outcomes with minimal treatment options due to a high rate of therapeutic resistance and few surgical options. One subgroup of pHGG is diffuse intrinsic pontine glioma (DIPG). Patient-derived cell lines, such as SU-DIPG-XIII, SU-DIPG-VI, and SU-DIPG-IV, recapitulate epigenetic mutations seen in patients. In these lines, lysine-specific demethylase 1 (LSD1) is overexpressed and knockdown/inhibition slows growth, therefore, optimizing LSD1 inhibitor treatment regimens is promising. In other models, MEK kinase activation acts as a mechanism of resistance to LSD1 inhibitors. This is relevant to DIPG due to the frequency of dysregulated and mutated upstream kinase pathways. Thus, we sought to identify the connection between LSD1 and kinase signaling as a therapeutic co-inhibition strategy in DIPG. Pharmacologically relevant catalytic LSD1 inhibitors were assessed using the alamarBlue viability assay and demonstrated wide ranges of IC₅₀ values with ORY-1001(19 μM to &gt; 150 μM), ORY-2001( &gt; 50 μM), GSK-LSD1(134 μM to &gt; 500 μM), and IMG-7289(1.6 μM-179 μM) in the SU-DIPG lines. Resistance mechanisms from kinase modulation were investigated via Western Blot to determine if kinase inhibition could sensitize these cells to LSD1 inhibition. We discovered that LSD1 inhibition caused an unexpected increase in pAKT and pERK, suggesting enhanced activity of protumorigenic kinases. To overcome kinase activation from LSD1 inhibition, MEK or PI3K inhibitors, including selumetinib, trametinib, and BKM120, were tested. A novel dual kinase inhibitor directed against EGFR and PI3K, MTX-241F, was also assessed. Several combinations caused a significant increase in efficacy measured by cell viability. We further observed that the addition of kinase inhibitors with LSD1 inhibition decreased phosphorylated kinases. Overall, the combination enhanced in vitro efficacy in contrast to single-agent inhibition supporting an interplay between LSD1 and kinase signaling in pHGG. Future studies will assess this combination utilizing orthotopic xenograft models of DIPG

Evidence for neutrino emission from the nearby active galaxy NGC 1068

A supermassive black hole, obscured by cosmic dust, powers the nearby active galaxy NGC 1068. Neutrinos, which rarely interact with matter, could provide information on the galaxy’s active core. We searched for neutrino emission from astrophysical objects using data recorded with the IceCube neutrino detector between 2011 and 2020. The positions of 110 known gamma-ray sources were individually searched for neutrino detections above atmospheric and cosmic backgrounds. We found that NGC 1068 has an excess of 79 − 20 + 22 neutrinos at tera–electron volt energies, with a global significance of 4.2σ, which we interpret as associated with the active galaxy. The flux of high-energy neutrinos that we measured from NGC 1068 is more than an order of magnitude higher than the upper limit on emissions of tera–electron volt gamma rays from this source.

High throughput screen of small molecules as potential countermeasures to galactic cosmic radiation induced cellular dysfunction

Space travel increases galactic cosmic ray exposure to flight crews and this is significantly elevated once travel moves beyond low Earth orbit. This includes combinations of high energy protons and heavy ions such as ⁵⁶Fe or ¹⁶O. There are distinct differences in the biological response to low-energy transfer (x-rays) or high-energy transfer (High-LET). However, given the relatively low fluence rate of exposure during flight operations, it might be possible to manage these deleterious effects using small molecules currently available. Virtually all reports to date examining small molecule management of radiation exposure are based on low-LET challenges. To that end an FDA approved drug library (725 drugs) was used to perform a high throughput screen of cultured cells following exposure to galactic cosmic radiation. The H9c2 myoblasts, ES-D3 pluripotent cells, and Hy926 endothelial cell lines were exposed to a single exposure (75 cGy) using the 5-ion GCRsim protocol developed at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL). Following GCR exposure cells were maintained for up to two weeks. For each drug (@10µM), a hierarchical cumulative score was developed incorporating measures of mitochondrial and cellular function, oxidant stress and cell senescence. The top 160 scores were retested following a similar protocol using 1µM of each drug. Within the 160 drugs, 33 are considered to have an anti-inflammatory capacity, while others also indirectly suppressed pro-inflammatory pathways or had noted antioxidant capacity. Lead candidates came from different drug classes that included angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors or AT1 antagonists, COX2 inhibitors, as well as drugs mediated by histamine receptors. Surprisingly, different classes of anti-diabetic medications were observed to be useful including sulfonylureas and metformin. Using a hierarchical decision structure, we have identified several lead candidates. That no one drug or even drug class was completely successful across all parameters tested suggests the complexity of managing the consequences of galactic cosmic radiation exposure.

Search for Unstable Sterile Neutrinos with the IceCube Neutrino Observatory

We present a search for an unstable sterile neutrino by looking for a resonant signal in eight years of atmospheric ν_{μ} data collected from 2011 to 2019 at the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. Both the (stable) three-neutrino and the 3+1 sterile neutrino models are disfavored relative to the unstable sterile neutrino model, though with p values of 2.8% and 0.81%, respectively, we do not observe evidence for 3+1 neutrinos with neutrino decay. The best-fit parameters for the sterile neutrino with decay model from this study are Δm_{41}^{2}=6.7_{-2.5}^{+3.9}  eV^{2}, sin^{2}2θ_{24}=0.33_{-0.17}^{+0.20}, and g^{2}=2.5π±1.5π, where g is the decay-mediating coupling. The preferred regions of the 3+1+decay model from short-baseline oscillation searches are excluded at 90% C.L.

Making integration foundational in population health intervention research: why we need 'Work Package Zero'

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to identify when and how integration should take place within evaluations of complex population health interventions (PHIs).

STUDY DESIGN

Descriptive analytical approach.

METHODS

We draw on conceptual insights that emerged through (1) a working group on integration and (2) a diverse range of literature on case studies, small-n evaluations and mixed methods evaluation studies.

RESULTS

We initially sought techniques to integrate analyses at the end of a complex PHI evaluation. However, this conceptualization of integration proved limiting. Instead, we found value in conceptualizing integration as a process that commences at the beginning of an evaluation and continues throughout. Many methods can be used for this type of integration, including process tracing, realist evaluation, congruence analysis, general elimination methodology/modus operandi, pattern matching and contribution analysis. Clearly signposting when integrative methods should commence within an evaluation should be of value to the PHI evaluation community, as well as to funders and related stakeholders.

CONCLUSIONS

Rather than being a tool used at the end of an evaluation, we propose that integration is more usefully conceived as a process that commences at the start of an evaluation and continues throughout. To emphasize the importance of this timing, integration can be described as comprising 'Work Package Zero' within evaluations of complex PHIs.

Lawson Criterion for Ignition Exceeded in an Inertial Fusion Experiment

For more than half a century, researchers around the world have been engaged in attempts to achieve fusion ignition as a proof of principle of various fusion concepts. Following the Lawson criterion, an ignited plasma is one where the fusion heating power is high enough to overcome all the physical processes that cool the fusion plasma, creating a positive thermodynamic feedback loop with rapidly increasing temperature. In inertially confined fusion, ignition is a state where the fusion plasma can begin "burn propagation" into surrounding cold fuel, enabling the possibility of high energy gain. While "scientific breakeven" (i.e., unity target gain) has not yet been achieved (here target gain is 0.72, 1.37 MJ of fusion for 1.92 MJ of laser energy), this Letter reports the first controlled fusion experiment, using laser indirect drive, on the National Ignition Facility to produce capsule gain (here 5.8) and reach ignition by nine different formulations of the Lawson criterion.

Safety and efficacy considerations amongst the elderly population in the updated treatment of heart failure: a review

INTRODUCTION

Heart failure is one of the cardiovascular diseases that impacts the geriatric population. As new clinical trials investigating heart failure are conducted, groundbreaking information is assessable to further evolve the treatment. To correctly improve the quality of life of elderly patients, it is critical to evaluate the safety and efficacy of new and improved therapy regimens.

AREAS COVERED

In reviewal of the 2021 and 2022 updated guidelines, the safety and efficacy of the newly indicated medications will be addressed. The new indications cover sacubitril/valsartan and two SGLT2 inhibitors: dapagliflozin and empagliflozin. An introduction to the medications discussed covers the pharmacology before addressing the efficacy and safety considerations in the elderly population. Furthermore, prime drug-drug interactions associated with the two classes of medications will be considered as well as providing possible solutions to further create the safest drug therapy for geriatric patients with common comorbidities.

EXPERT OPINION

The two classes of medications, the ARNI and SGLT2 inhibitors, are well-tolerated amongst the elderly population. With the release of new guidelines, the updated medications will provide safer and better therapy in this disease state for geriatrics. One major limitation includes the high cost of these brand-named medications.

Strong Constraints on Neutrino Nonstandard Interactions from TeV-Scale ν_{μ} Disappearance at IceCube

We report a search for nonstandard neutrino interactions (NSI) using eight years of TeV-scale atmospheric muon neutrino data from the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. By reconstructing incident energies and zenith angles for atmospheric neutrino events, this analysis presents unified confidence intervals for the NSI parameter ε_{μτ}. The best-fit value is consistent with no NSI at a p value of 25.2%. With a 90% confidence interval of -0.0041≤ε_{μτ}≤0.0031 along the real axis and similar strength in the complex plane, this result is the strongest constraint on any NSI parameter from any oscillation channel to date.

Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study

BACKGROUND

Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC).

FINDINGS

In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≥0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683-0·717]).

INTERPRETATION

In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required.

FUNDING

British Journal of Surgery Society.

Social support and prenatal mental health problems: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

Pregnancy is a time of profound physical and emotional change as well as an increased risk of mental health problems. Providing social support is vital to reduce such risk.

Objectives

This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed at examining the relationship between social support and depression, anxiety and self-harm during pregnancy.

Methods

We searched observational studies from PubMed, Psych Info, MIDIRS, SCOPUS, and CINAHL databases. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale tool was used for quality appraisal. The Q and the I² statistics were used to evaluate heterogeneity. A random-effects model was used to pool estimates. Publication bias was assessed using a funnel plot and Egger’s regression test and adjusted using trim and Fill analysis. All the analysis was conducted using STATA.

Results

Sixty-seven studies with 64,449 pregnant women were part of the current review. Of the total 67 studies, 22 and 45 studies were included in the narrative analysis and meta-analysis, respectively. From the studies included in the narrative analysis, 20(91%) of them reported a significant association between social support and the risk of mental health problems (i.e. depression, anxiety, and self-harm). After adjusting for publication bias, the results of the random-effect model revealed low social support was significantly associated with antenatal depression (AOR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.41) and antenatal anxiety (AOR: 1.97, 95% CI: 1.34, 2.92).

Conclusions

Low social support was significantly associated with depression, anxiety, and self-harm during pregnancy. Policy-makers and those working on maternity care should consider the development of targeted social support programs to help reduce mental health problems amongst pregnant women.

Disclosure

No significant relationships.

The association between social support and antenatal depressive and anxiety symptoms among Australian women

Introduction

Antenatal depression and antenatal anxiety adversely affect several obstetric and foetal outcomes, and increase the rate of postnatal mental illness. Thus, to tackle these challenges the need for social support during pregnancy is vital.

Objectives

This study examined the association between domains of social support and antenatal depressive and anxiety symptoms among Australian women.

Methods

Our study used data obtained from the 1973–78 cohort of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health (ALSWH), focusing upon women who reported being pregnant (n=493). Depression and anxiety were assessed using the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression (CES-D-10) scale, and the 9-item Goldberg Anxiety and Depression scale (GADS) respectively. The 19 item-Medical Outcomes Study Social Support index (MOSS) was used to assess social support. A binary logistic regression model was used to examine the associations between domains of social support and antenatal depressive and anxiety symptoms.

Results

After adjusting for potential confounders, our study found that the odds of antenatal depressive symptoms was about four and threefold higher among pregnant women who reported low emotional/informational support (AOR=4.75; 95% CI: 1.45, 15.66; p=0.010) and low social support (overall support) (AOR: 3.26, 95%CI: 1.05, 10.10, p=0.040) respectively compared with their counterpart. In addition, the odds of antenatal anxiety symptoms was seven times higher among pregnant women who reported low affectionate support/positive social interaction (AOR=7.43; 95%CI: 1.75, 31.55; p=0.006).

Conclusions

Low emotional support and low affectionate support have a significant association with antenatal depressive and anxiety symptoms respectively. As such, targeted screening of expectant women for social support is essential.

Disclosure

No significant relationships.

Predicted Global Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha Variant of Concern via Air Travel

Purpose

To predict the global spread of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha Variant of Concern (VoC) from England via air travel and compare against observed importation.

Methods & Materials

Risk models were used to estimate a country's likelihood of importing at least one traveller infected with the Alpha VoC from England by January 19, 2021.

First, the prior 60-day incidence of Alpha VoC associated with each English airport was estimated using cumulative Alpha VoC cases reported by Public Health England between September 20, 2020 – January 4, 2021 proportionately allocated to each airport. Each airport's catchment population was derived from a probabilistic Huff model. Next, the prevalence of the Alpha VoC for each airport was derived from the estimated incidence to represent the probability that at least one departing traveller was infected with the Alpha VoC for each English airport. The prevalence and forecasted flight volumes were used to estimate the likelihood of each destination airport receiving at least one infected traveller from England. Forecasted flight volumes were based on historical passenger volumes data from the International Air Transport Association and prospective flight schedules from CIRIUM. All airport-level likelihoods were aggregated to the country-level.

Each country's predicted likelihood was compared against observed cases of Alpha VoC by January 25, 2021, collected by cov-lineages.org and a manual search of online sources.

Results

Among 211 countries, the median likelihood was 1.6% (interquartile range: 17.5%) and the mean was 13.9% (SD: 23.5%). In total, 28.9% (n=55) of countries had observed importation of the Alpha VoC by January 25^th. Fifteen of 16 countries with a predicted likelihood of importation greater than 50% had reported at least one case (kappa = 0.88), while 31 of 39 countries with a predicted likelihood lower than 1% did not detect a case (kappa = 0.92).

Conclusion

Risk models based on air travel to inform public health preparedness accurately identified most potential destinations at highest risk of importing the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha VoC.

Search for Relativistic Magnetic Monopoles with Eight Years of IceCube Data

We present an all-sky 90% confidence level upper limit on the cosmic flux of relativistic magnetic monopoles using 2886 days of IceCube data. The analysis was optimized for monopole speeds between 0.750c and 0.995c, without any explicit restriction on the monopole mass. We constrain the flux of relativistic cosmic magnetic monopoles to a level below 2.0×10^{-19}  cm^{-2} s^{-1} sr^{-1} over the majority of the targeted speed range. This result constitutes the most strict upper limit to date for magnetic monopoles with β≳0.8 and up to β∼0.995 and fills the gap between existing limits on the cosmic flux of nonrelativistic and ultrarelativistic magnetic monopoles.

Insulin Secretion Predicts the Response to Antidiabetic Therapy in Patients With New-onset Diabetes

CONTEXT

The results of the present study demonstrate that beta cell function in newly diagnosed T2DM patients is the key predictor of response to glucose lowering medications and provides a practical tool (C-Pep120 /C-Pep0) to guide the choice of glucose lowering agent.

OBJECTIVE

This work aims to identify predictors for individualization of antidiabetic therapy in patients with new-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

METHODS

A total of 261 drug-naive participants in the Efficacy and Durability of Initial Combination Therapy for Type 2 Diabetes (EDICT) study, with new-onset diabetes, were randomly assigned in a single-center study to receive 1) metformin followed by glipizide and then insulin glargine on failure to achieve glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) less than 6.5%, or 2) initial triple therapy with metformin/pioglitazone/exenatide. Each patient received a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) prior to start of therapy. Factors that predicted response to therapy were identified using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve method.

RESULTS

Thirty-nine patients started and maintained the treatment goal (HbA1c < 6.5%) on metformin only, and did not require intensification of antihyperglycemic therapy; 54 patients required addition of glipizide to metformin; and 47 patients required insulin addition to metformin plus glipizide for glucose control. The plasma C-peptide concentration (C-Pep)120/C-Pep0 ratio during the OGTT was the strongest predictor of response to therapy. Patients with a ratio less than 1.78 were more likely to require insulin for glucose control, whereas patients with a ratio greater than 2.65 were more likely to achieve glucose control with metformin monotherapy. In patients started on initial triple therapy, the HbA1c decreased independently of the C-Pep120/C-Pep0 ratio.

CONCLUSION

The increase in C-Pep above fasting following glucose load predicts the response to antihyperglycemic therapy in patients with new-onset diabetes. C-Pep120/C-Pep0 provides a useful tool for the individualization of antihyperglycemic therapy in patients with new-onset T2DM.

The impact of psychiatric diagnoses on two-year outcomes in patients with ventricular assist devices

Background

A multi-specialty approach is required during patient selection for left ventricular assist device (LVAD) implantation. In addition to a comprehensive medical evaluation, patients undergo an extensive psychiatric work up to ensure their candidacy when pursuing durable support devices. We aim to analyze the impact of psychiatric illnesses on 2-year outcomes after VAD implantation.

Methods

This study was a single center, retrospective analysis of 263 patients who underwent durable LVAD implantation between 2015 and 2017. All patients were evaluated by a single specialist during their work up for LVAD implantation. Patients who had a pre-existing diagnosis defined by criteria outlined in Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-5) were assigned to the History of Psychiatric Diagnosis group. Statistical analysis was performed using Chi-Square and Student's t-tests, wherein p&lt;0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Results

Of the 263 patients, 68 patients were found to have a history of psychiatric illness compared to 195 who had no previous diagnosis. Of those with a psychiatric history, 30.8% had Depression, 1.5% had Bipolar disorder, 22.1% had Anxiety, 1.5% had PTSD, and 16.2% had more than one diagnosis. 19.5% of patients with no history went on to be transplanted compared to 22.1% of patients with a psychiatric history (p=0.65). No significant difference was found between length of stay, days to readmission, 30-day survival, and 2-year survival. Patients without a psychiatric history were found to have fewer number of readmissions over 2 years (p&lt;0.01) (See Table). No significant difference was seen in complications including driveline infections, bacteremia, cerebrovascular accidents, pump thromboses, pump hemolysis, or major bleeding events (See Table).

Conclusion

Psychosocial characteristics play a significant role in determining a patient's candidacy for LVAD implantation. Although patients with a history of psychiatric illness were found to have a greater number of readmissions, this did not correlate to poorer outcomes or increased morbidity and mortality over 2 years. This study highlights the importance of taking a multi-faceted approach when determining patient eligibility for mechanical support devices. Future studies with larger population models should be conducted.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Erratum: Azimuthal Anisotropy at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider: The First and Fourth Harmonics [Phys. Rev. Lett. 92, 062301 (2004)]

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.92.062301.

Role of inpatient coronary CT angiography on clinical decision making during COVID- 19 pandemic

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: None.

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound effect on healthcare delivery. Here we describe the effect of repurposing of a research Computed Tomography scanner on clinical care of cardiology patients in an urban academic medical centre which did not have routine access to CCTA prior to the pandemic. 

Patients requiring invasive coronary angiography require transfer to a regional cardiac centre (no ICA available on site).

Purpose

We investigated the effect of CCTA on i) diagnostic certainty ii) avoidance of clinician defined unnecessary invasive angiography in hospitalised patients.

Methods

This was a prospective, longitudinal cohort study involving hospitalized patients admitted to an urban academic medical centre (catchment population 650 000) between March 29 and September 21, 2020. Routinely collected (usual care) data were gathered by clinicians who were members of the usual care medical team and ethics approval or explicit patient consent was not required. High-sensitivity Troponin-I was measured on admission and 3- and 6– hours after if mandated (Abbott Architect TnI assay).

A 320-detector scanner (Aquilon ONE, Canon) was used. Intravenous metoprolol was used where required to control the heart rate (target 60 b.p.m.) and sublingual glyceryl trinitrate will be given to all patients immediately before the scan acquisition.

Results

Forty-three patients underwent inpatient CCTA, mean age: 61 ± 13 years (range 30-88y), 54% female. The presenting complaint was typical chest pain in 28 (65%), atypical chest pain in 10 (23%), and a variety of symptoms in 5 (12%) including palpitations, syncope, breathlessness.

Thirty-six (84%) of patients had a detectable TnI above the 99% centile. Median(IQR) peak TnI was 127 (33-635)ng/L.

CCTA was carried out on average 1 day post request. 

CCTA resulted in an improvement in clinician diagnostic certainty (Initial review: 21% yes, 79% probable, post-CCTA review: 84% yes, 16% probable) in providing a diagnosis.

21 (49%) of invasive coronary angiograms were avoided due to CCTA, whilst an inpatient invasive coronary angiogram (ICA) was performed in 4(9%) due to CCTA demonstrating significant disease, and in 2(%) the ICA was changed from out-patient to in-patient. Three ICA tests were requested as OP due to CCTA findings. CCTA did not overestimate disease severity in this cohort. 

We saved 21 inter hospital transfers for ICA during this time period. 

Using NHS England cost tariffs, a cost saving of &gt;£36,000 was made for using CCTA instead of ICA in these 21 patients who would have required ICA.

Conclusion

Inpatient CCTA resulted in greater clinician diagnostic confidence, avoidance of unnecessary invasive angiograms and a significant cost saving. This also reduced the duration of patient stay, reducing the potential exposure of patients to COVID-19.

Scanning Thermal Microscopy and Ballistic Phonon Transport in Lateral Spin Valves

Using scanning thermal microscopy, we have mapped the spatial distribution of temperatures in an operating nanoscale device formed from a magnetic injector, an Ag connecting wire, and a magnetic detector. An analytical model explained the thermal diffusion over the measured temperature range (2-300 K) and injector-detector separation (400-3000 nm). The characteristic diffusion lengths of the Peltier and Joule heat differ remarkably below 60 K, a fact that can be explained by the onset of ballistic phonon heat transfer in the substrate.

Physical activity recommendations for cancer survivors living with bony metastases: views of oncologic healthcare providers

PURPOSE

The potential of physical activity to improve function and quality of life of an individual with advanced cancer is now established. The purpose of this survey of oncologic healthcare providers (OHPs) is to understand their attitude towards physical activity for individuals living with bony metastases and to assess requirements to confidently provide physical activity recommendations.

METHODS

A web-based survey administered through Qualtrics™ included questions on participant demographics and attitude questions ranked on a Likert scale. Eligibility was a physician or nurse practitioner currently providing care in the cancer care system of a public healthcare system in Canada. 338 participants were identified and invited to participate in this survey.

RESULTS

The response rate was 34.6%. The majority of OHPs believed physical activity is important (89%) and safe (82%) in individuals living with bony metastases. OHPs agreed that these individuals looked to them for physical activity recommendations (74%) and that these recommendations would be followed (58%). Yet, 86% of OHPs felt they required more information before they could recommend physical activity to individuals living with bony metastases, and less than half (43%) of OHPs felt confident enough to prescribe physical activity.

CONCLUSIONS

OHPs agree that physical activity for individuals living with bony metastatic cancer is beneficial and safe. However, OHPs are not confident in their ability to recommend physical activity to this population.

IMPLICATIONS FOR CANCER SURVIVORS

There is a need to create physical activity guidelines for individuals living with bony metastases and improve access to rehabilitation services.

Characteristics of global naturopathic education, regulation, and practice frameworks: results from an international survey

BACKGROUND

This descriptive study provides the first examination of global naturopathic education, regulation and practice frameworks that have potential to constrain or assist professional formation and integration in global health systems. Despite increasing public use, a significant workforce, and World Health Organization calls for national policy development to support integration of services, existent frameworks as potential barriers to integration have not been examined.

METHODS

This cross-sectional survey utilized purposive sampling of 65 naturopathic organisations (educational institutions, professional associations, and regulatory bodies) from 29 countries. Organizational representatives completed an on-line survey, conducted between Nov 2016 - Aug 2019. Frequencies and cross-tabulation statistics were analyzed using SPSSv.25. Qualitative responses were hand-coded and thematically analysed where appropriate.

RESULTS

Sixty-five of 228 naturopathic organizations completed the survey (29% response rate) from 29 of 46 countries (63% country response rate). Most education programs (68%) were delivered via a national framework. Higher education qualifications (60%) predominated. Organizations influential in education were professional associations (75.4%), particularly where naturopathy was unregulated, and accreditation bodies (41.5%) and regulatory boards (33.8%) where regulated. Full access to controlled acts, and to health insurance rebates were more commonly reported where regulated. Attitude of decision-makers, opinions of other health professions and existing legislation were perceived to most impact regulation, which was globally heterogeneous.

CONCLUSION

Education and regulation of the naturopathic profession has significant heterogeneity, even in the face of global calls for consistent regulation that recognizes naturopathy as a medical system. Standards are highest and consistency more apparent in countries with regulatory frameworks.

One-year Mortality Outcomes From the Advancing Cryptococcal Meningitis Treatment for Africa Trial of Cryptococcal Meningitis Treatment in Malawi

In Malawi, 236 participants from the Advancing Cryptococcal Meningitis Treatment for Africa trial were followed for 12 months. The trial outcomes reported at 10 weeks were sustained to 1 year. One-week amphotericin B plus flucytosine was associated with the lowest 1 year mortality (27.5% [95% confidence interval, 16.3 to 44.1]).

Efficacy of novel aqueous photo-chlorine dioxide against a human norovirus surrogate, bacteriophage MS2 and Clostridium difficile endospores, in suspension, on stainless steel and under greenhouse conditions

AIMS

The efficacy of a novel photochemical method for generating chlorine dioxide (photoClO₂ ) was evaluated against human noroviruses (HuNoV) surrogate, bacteriophage MS2, and Clostridium difficile endospores.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Chlorine dioxide was generated by mixing 1% sodium chlorite with 10 parts-per-million (ppm) Eosin Y and irradiating with a photo-activator-excitable light. PhotoClO₂ efficacy was assessed against bacteriophage MS2 and C. difficile endospores in suspension, on hard surfaces and greenhouse conditions under soiled and unsoiled conditions. The estimated effective photoClO₂ produced and consumed was 20·39 ± 0·16 ppm at a rate of 8·16 ppm per min in a 1% sodium chlorite solution. In suspension, MS2 phage was reduced by 3·35 and >5·10 log₁₀ PFU per ml in 120 and 90 min, with and without soil, respectively. At the same time, when dried on stainless steel surface, MS2 phage was reduced by >4·53 log₁₀ PFU per carrier in 30 min under both conditions. On the other hand, C. difficile endospores in suspension were reduced by 2·26 and 3·65 log₁₀ CFU per ml in 120 min with and without soiling, respectively. However, on stainless steel surface, maximal reductions of the C. difficile endospores were 0·8 and 1·5 log₁₀ CFU per carrier with and without soiling, respectively, and a maximal reduction of 2·97 log₁₀ CFU per carrier under greenhouse conditions at 24 h.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, photoClO₂ showed promise as a technology to control HuNoV contamination on environmental surfaces but requires further optimization and testing against C. difficile endospores.

SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY

Results from this investigation will serve as a model for how to generate and quantify photoClO₂ and how to appropriately evaluate this new class of disinfectants against environmentally resilient pathogens: viruses and bacterial endospores.

eV-Scale Sterile Neutrino Search Using Eight Years of Atmospheric Muon Neutrino Data from the IceCube Neutrino Observatory

The results of a 3+1 sterile neutrino search using eight years of data from the IceCube Neutrino Observatory are presented. A total of 305 735 muon neutrino events are analyzed in reconstructed energy-zenith space to test for signatures of a matter-enhanced oscillation that would occur given a sterile neutrino state with a mass-squared differences between 0.01 and 100  eV^{2}. The best-fit point is found to be at sin^{2}(2θ_{24})=0.10 and Δm_{41}^{2}=4.5  eV^{2}, which is consistent with the no sterile neutrino hypothesis with a p value of 8.0%.

Estimating effectiveness of speed reduction measures for decreasing whale-strike mortality in a high-risk region

Recent estimates of blue (Balaenoptera musculus) and humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae) whale ship-strike deaths on the US west coast are above the Potential Biological Removal limit determined by the National Marine Fisheries Service. Beginning in 2015, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration requested voluntary Vessel Speed Reductions (VSR) in the designated shipping routes off San Francisco, California, USA, in order to decrease whale mortality from ship strikes. We applied a ship strike model based on whale density and Automatic Identification System (AIS) vessel data. We bootstrapped speeds from vessels that transited when no VSR was in place to assess the effect of the VSR on strike mortality rates. Finally, we calculated the expected mortality for hypothetical compliance scenarios by programmatically imposing speed caps. Average predicted mortality for the region was 2.7 blue whales and 7.0 humpback whales in a 4 month period. Compared to years prior to the VSR (2012-2014), vessel speeds during the VSR were slower. This lowered blue whale deaths within the shipping lanes by 11-13% and humpback whale deaths by 9-10% in 2016-2017. If 95% of mariners adhered to recommended 10 knot (kn) limits in the shipping lanes alone, we predicted twice as many blue whale and 3 times as many humpback whale deaths would be avoided relative to current adherence. Adding a 10 kn speed limit (with 95% cooperation) at the ends of each of the lanes would result in about 5- and 4-fold reductions in blue whale and humpback whale mortality, respectively, relative to current practices. Our approach can evaluate ship strikes and mitigation measures for whale populations around the globe.

Characteristics of the Diffuse Astrophysical Electron and Tau Neutrino Flux with Six Years of IceCube High Energy Cascade Data

We report on the first measurement of the astrophysical neutrino flux using particle showers (cascades) in IceCube data from 2010-2015. Assuming standard oscillations, the astrophysical neutrinos in this dedicated cascade sample are dominated (∼90%) by electron and tau flavors. The flux, observed in the sensitive energy range from 16 TeV to 2.6 PeV, is consistent with a single power-law model as expected from Fermi-type acceleration of high energy particles at astrophysical sources. We find the flux spectral index to be γ=2.53±0.07 and a flux normalization for each neutrino flavor of ϕ_{astro}=1.66_{-0.27}^{+0.25} at E_{0}=100  TeV, in agreement with IceCube's complementary muon neutrino results and with all-neutrino flavor fit results. In the measured energy range we reject spectral indices γ≤2.28 at ≥3σ significance level. Because of high neutrino energy resolution and low atmospheric neutrino backgrounds, this analysis provides the most detailed characterization of the neutrino flux at energies below ∼100  TeV compared to previous IceCube results. Results from fits assuming more complex neutrino flux models suggest a flux softening at high energies and a flux hardening at low energies (p value ≥0.06). The sizable and smooth flux measured below ∼100  TeV remains a puzzle. In order to not violate the isotropic diffuse gamma-ray background as measured by the Fermi Large Area Telescope, it suggests the existence of astrophysical neutrino sources characterized by dense environments which are opaque to gamma rays.

Post-release survival of fallout Newell’s shearwater fledglings from a rescue and rehabilitation program on Kaua‘i, Hawai‘i

Light attraction impacts nocturnally active fledgling seabirds worldwide and is a particularly acute problem on Kaua‘i (the northern-most island in the main Hawaiian Island archipelago) for the Critically Endangered Newell’s shearwaterPuffinus newelli. The Save Our Shearwaters (SOS) program was created in 1979 to address this issue and to date has recovered and released to sea more than 30500 fledglings. Although the value of the program for animal welfare is clear, as birds cannot simply be left to die, no evaluation exists to inform post-release survival. We used satellite transmitters to track 38 fledglings released by SOS and compared their survival rates (assessed by tag transmission duration) to those of 12 chicks that fledged naturally from the mountains of Kaua‘i. Wild fledglings transmitted longer than SOS birds, and SOS birds with longer rehabilitation periods transmitted for a shorter duration than birds released immediately or rehabilitated for only 1 d. Although transmitter durations from grounded fledglings were shorter (indicating impacts to survivorship), some SOS birds did survive and dispersed out to sea. All surviving birds (wild and SOS) traveled more than 2000 km to the southwest of Kaua‘i, where they concentrated mostly in the North Pacific Equatorial Countercurrent Province, revealing a large-scale annual post-breeding aggregation zone for fledgling Newell’s shearwaters. While there was reduced survival among birds undergoing rehabilitation, SOS remains an important contribution toward the conservation of Newell’s shearwater because a proportion of released birds do indeed survive. However, light attraction, the root cause of fallout, remains a serious unresolved issue on Kaua’i.

How to increase the value of self-reported health service data by using data linkage: a case study

Background

This is a case study for recurrent stroke prevention. Lifestyle factors account for about 80% of the risk of recurrent stroke. Most health services studies examining stroke prevention rely on stroke survivors' self-reported lifestyle behaviour data. How can researchers increase the value of collected self-reported data to provide additional information for more comprehensive assessments?

Methods

45 and Up Study is the largest ongoing study in the Southern Hemisphere focusing on the health of people aged 45 years and older living in NSW, Australia. This case study linked self-reported longitudinal lifestyle data in the 45 and Up Study, with corresponding mortality data (i.e. NSW Registry of Births, Deaths and Marriages & NSW Cause of Death Unit Record File) and hospital data (i.e. NSW Admitted Patient Data Collection) via the Centre for Health Record Linkage (CHeReL). The main outcome measures are health services, clinical outcomes, and mortality rates for stroke care. The analyses will include descriptive analysis, multivariate regression analysis, and survival analysis.

Results

A total of 8410 stroke survivors who participated in the 45 and Up Study were included in this data linkage study. From January 2006 to December 2015, 99249 hospital claims (mean: 13 times admission to hospital per person) and 2656 death registration records have been linked to these participants. The mean age of the stroke survivors was 72 (SD = 11) years, with 56% being males. These results are preliminary and more analyses will be conducted by using quality of life status, clinical diagnosis, comorbidities, and procedures.

Conclusions

Data linkage enables researchers to generate comprehensive findings on health services studies and gain a more holistic understanding of the determinants and outcomes of stroke prevention with lower data collection costs and less burden on participants.

Key messages

Data linkage brings about a new opportunity for self-reported data on health services utilisation. It is a cost-effective way to enhance existing self-reported data via the data linkage approach to increase its usefulness for informing health service planning.