Validation and development of models using clinical, biochemical and ultrasound markers for predicting pre-eclampsia: an individual participant data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Pre-eclampsia is a leading cause of maternal and perinatal mortality and morbidity. Early identification of women at risk is needed to plan management.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the performance of existing pre-eclampsia prediction models and to develop and validate models for pre-eclampsia using individual participant data meta-analysis. We also estimated the prognostic value of individual markers.

DESIGN

This was an individual participant data meta-analysis of cohort studies.

SETTING

Source data from secondary and tertiary care.

PREDICTORS

We identified predictors from systematic reviews, and prioritised for importance in an international survey.

PRIMARY OUTCOMES

Early-onset (delivery at < 34 weeks' gestation), late-onset (delivery at ≥ 34 weeks' gestation) and any-onset pre-eclampsia.

ANALYSIS

We externally validated existing prediction models in UK cohorts and reported their performance in terms of discrimination and calibration. We developed and validated 12 new models based on clinical characteristics, clinical characteristics and biochemical markers, and clinical characteristics and ultrasound markers in the first and second trimesters. We summarised the data set-specific performance of each model using a random-effects meta-analysis. Discrimination was considered promising for C-statistics of ≥ 0.7, and calibration was considered good if the slope was near 1 and calibration-in-the-large was near 0. Heterogeneity was quantified using I ² and τ². A decision curve analysis was undertaken to determine the clinical utility (net benefit) of the models. We reported the unadjusted prognostic value of individual predictors for pre-eclampsia as odds ratios with 95% confidence and prediction intervals.

RESULTS

The International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications network comprised 78 studies (3,570,993 singleton pregnancies) identified from systematic reviews of tests to predict pre-eclampsia. Twenty-four of the 131 published prediction models could be validated in 11 UK cohorts. Summary C-statistics were between 0.6 and 0.7 for most models, and calibration was generally poor owing to large between-study heterogeneity, suggesting model overfitting. The clinical utility of the models varied between showing net harm to showing minimal or no net benefit. The average discrimination for IPPIC models ranged between 0.68 and 0.83. This was highest for the second-trimester clinical characteristics and biochemical markers model to predict early-onset pre-eclampsia, and lowest for the first-trimester clinical characteristics models to predict any pre-eclampsia. Calibration performance was heterogeneous across studies. Net benefit was observed for International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications first and second-trimester clinical characteristics and clinical characteristics and biochemical markers models predicting any pre-eclampsia, when validated in singleton nulliparous women managed in the UK NHS. History of hypertension, parity, smoking, mode of conception, placental growth factor and uterine artery pulsatility index had the strongest unadjusted associations with pre-eclampsia.

LIMITATIONS

Variations in study population characteristics, type of predictors reported, too few events in some validation cohorts and the type of measurements contributed to heterogeneity in performance of the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications models. Some published models were not validated because model predictors were unavailable in the individual participant data.

CONCLUSION

For models that could be validated, predictive performance was generally poor across data sets. Although the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications models show good predictive performance on average, and in the singleton nulliparous population, heterogeneity in calibration performance is likely across settings.

FUTURE WORK

Recalibration of model parameters within populations may improve calibration performance. Additional strong predictors need to be identified to improve model performance and consistency. Validation, including examination of calibration heterogeneity, is required for the models we could not validate.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42015029349.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 72. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Pilot Study of French-Canadian Lifestyle Redesign® for Chronic Pain Management

As chronic pain (CP) interferes with an individual's lifestyle by limiting meaningful activities and health-related quality of life (HRQoL), occupational therapy (OT) plays an important role in CP management interventions. This pilot study aimed to explore the influence of a 13-week French-Canadian Lifestyle Redesign^® for CP. A mixed-methods research design including a preexperimental quantitative component pre-/posttest was used with 15 participants with fibromyalgia. Although pain remained unchanged after the intervention, improvements were observed in participants' engagement in meaningful activities (p < .01), life balance (p < .01), mental components of HRQoL (p < .01), depressive symptoms (p = .047), and pain self-efficacy (p < .01). After the intervention, phone interviews (n = 6) highlighted the participants' appreciation of the focus being placed on their daily routines and the development of a sense of belonging throughout the intervention. This study suggests the potential feasibility and benefits of an occupation-based approach in CP management.

External validation of prognostic models predicting pre-eclampsia: individual participant data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Pre-eclampsia is a leading cause of maternal and perinatal mortality and morbidity. Early identification of women at risk during pregnancy is required to plan management. Although there are many published prediction models for pre-eclampsia, few have been validated in external data. Our objective was to externally validate published prediction models for pre-eclampsia using individual participant data (IPD) from UK studies, to evaluate whether any of the models can accurately predict the condition when used within the UK healthcare setting.

METHODS

IPD from 11 UK cohort studies (217,415 pregnant women) within the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications (IPPIC) pre-eclampsia network contributed to external validation of published prediction models, identified by systematic review. Cohorts that measured all predictor variables in at least one of the identified models and reported pre-eclampsia as an outcome were included for validation. We reported the model predictive performance as discrimination (C-statistic), calibration (calibration plots, calibration slope, calibration-in-the-large), and net benefit. Performance measures were estimated separately in each available study and then, where possible, combined across studies in a random-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Of 131 published models, 67 provided the full model equation and 24 could be validated in 11 UK cohorts. Most of the models showed modest discrimination with summary C-statistics between 0.6 and 0.7. The calibration of the predicted compared to observed risk was generally poor for most models with observed calibration slopes less than 1, indicating that predictions were generally too extreme, although confidence intervals were wide. There was large between-study heterogeneity in each model's calibration-in-the-large, suggesting poor calibration of the predicted overall risk across populations. In a subset of models, the net benefit of using the models to inform clinical decisions appeared small and limited to probability thresholds between 5 and 7%.

CONCLUSIONS

The evaluated models had modest predictive performance, with key limitations such as poor calibration (likely due to overfitting in the original development datasets), substantial heterogeneity, and small net benefit across settings. The evidence to support the use of these prediction models for pre-eclampsia in clinical decision-making is limited. Any models that we could not validate should be examined in terms of their predictive performance, net benefit, and heterogeneity across multiple UK settings before consideration for use in practice.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO ID: CRD42015029349 .

0566 Assessment of Soft Palate Muscle Fatigue and its Effect on Velopharyngeal Upper Airway (UA) Mechanical Properties

Introduction

Soft palate muscles are crucial in the maintenance of UA patency. This study aimed to investigate the fatigability of soft palate muscles and to quantify its effects on velopharyngeal UA dynamic properties in OSA patients and control subjects.

Methods

8 control (AHI ≤ 10 /h), 21 OSA patients (13 with mild/moderate disease: 10 /h &lt; AHI ≤ 20 /h and 8 with moderate/severe: AHI &gt; 20/h) were included in the study. Subjects were asked to develop repetitive intra-oral positive pressure during cheek-bulging maneuvers while wearing a mouth piece to keep the jaw opened. Subjects were asked to develop sustained maximal bulging pressure for 5 sec every 10 sec until the peak pressure could not reach 85% of baseline maximal pressure for 2 consecutive times. UA dynamic properties were assessed by measuring instantaneous airflow and velopharyngeal pressure in response to phrenic nerve magnetic stimulation (PNMS) performed before, immediately and every 3 minutes after the fatiguing protocol for a maximum of 30 minutes’ recovery time. UA closing pressure (Pcrit) was estimated by modeling the flow/pressure relationship in response to PNMS.

Results

The sex, age, BMI and the soft palate mechanical properties (including the baseline strength, endurance time, total muscle work) did not significantly differ between the 3 groups. Maximal peak bulging pressure measured using cheek-bulging maneuver significantly changed following the fatigue task (p &lt; 0.05). Baseline velopharyngeal Pcrit were less negative in moderate/severe OSA group compared to mild/moderate OSA (-6.5±2.6 vs. -11.9±3.2, p &lt; 0.05). In mild/moderate OSA patients, PNMS-induced drop in maximal instantaneous airflow tend to increase 3 mins after the fatiguing trial compared to baseline (22.7±21.1 l.s-1vs. 9.6±5.8 l.s-1, p &lt; 0.1), and their Velopharyngeal linear resistance 3 mins after the fatiguing trial tend to be higher than the moderate/severe OSA group (3.9 ± 5.0 cmH2O·l−1·s−1 vs. 1.8 ± 1.1 cmH2O·l−1·s−1, p&lt; 0.1).

Conclusion

The cheek-bulging maneuver could induce soft palate muscle fatigue, with no difference observed in soft palate mechanical performances among patients with different OSA severity. The fatiguing maneuver could further alter velopharyngeal UA mechanical properties in patients with mild/moderate OSA.

Support

SBD from IUCPQ Foundation

Data on soil physicochemical properties and chemical composition of rainfall and of throughfall and stemflow generated by Turkey oak trees (Quercus cerris L.) in acid and sub-alkaline soils

We report data on the physicochemical properties of soils collected in two adjacent areas, one acid and one sub-alkaline, both developed on sequential beds of Plio-pleistocene marine sediments, and on the chemical composition of ecological solutions (rainfall, throughfall and stemflow) separately collected in the two areas. Throughfall and stemflow were generated by Turkey oak trees (Quercus cerris L.), which was the dominant tree species in both study areas. These data are related to the original article "Soil affects throughfall and stemflow under Turkey oak (Quercus cerris L.)" (Corti et al., 2019) [1].

Three months of chronic ethanol administration and the behavioral outcome of rats after lateral fluid percussion brain injury

This study examined the effects of 3 months of chronic ethanol administration (CEAn) on the behavioral outcome in rats after lateral fluid percussion (FP) brain injury. Rats were given either an ethanol liquid diet (ethanol diet groups) or a pair-fed isocaloric sucrose control diet (control diet groups) for 3 months. Then, rats from both diet groups were subjected to either lateral FP brain injury of moderate severity (1.8 atm) or to sham operation. Postinjury behavioral measurements revealed that brain injury caused significant spatial learning disability in both diet groups. There were no significant differences in spatial learning ability in the sham or brain-injured animals between the control and ethanol diets. However, a trend towards cognitive impairment in the sham animals and a trend towards reduced deficits in the brain-injured animals were observed in the ethanol diet group. Histologic analysis of injured animals from both diet groups revealed similar extents of ipsilateral cortical and hippocampal CA3 damage. These results, in general, suggest that 3 months of CEAn does not significantly alter the behavioral and morphologic outcome of experimental brain injury.

An investigation of FB interactions with poly(ethylene glycol) 6000, poly(ethylene glycol) 4000, and poly-epsilon-caprolactone by thermoanalytical and spectroscopic methods and modeling

The interactions between flurbiprofen (FB) and different polymers are studied in order to improve the bioavailability of FB. FB-polymer phase diagrams [poly(ethylene glycol) (PEG) 4000, PEG 6000, and poly-epsilon-caprolactone] were constructed and compared with the modeling diagrams. Thermoanalytical methods (differential scanning calorimetry, thermomicroscopy) were used to construct the phase diagrams. Thermodynamic data were used to model the FB-polymer systems. The construction of the FB-polymer phase diagrams showed the existence of a stable invariant called "eutectic" characterized by (XE)exp, (TfE)exp, and (DeltaHfE)exp, the experimental eutectic composition, the experimental temperature, and the enthalpy of eutectic melting, respectively. Modeling confirmed the values for these parameters and was used to evaluate the different Flory-Huggins parameters chi for each FB-polymer mixture. chi values and the infrared spectra confirm that the interactions due to hydrogen bonds between FB and PEG 4000 are more numerous than between FB and PEG 6000 and also more numerous than between FB and poly-epsilon-caprolactone.

Characterization of Polymorphs and Solvates of 3-Amino-1-(m-trifluoromethylphenyl)-6-methyl-1H-pyridazin-4-one

The characterization of two polymorphs of the title compound (F2692; 1) by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), microanalysis, proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, thermogravimetry, thermomicroscopy, infrared spectroscopy, and X-ray diffractometry is described. Both polymorphs are crystalline, with form II being more stable at temperatures less than 160 degrees C. The thermal behavior was studied at different rates of heating, and the enthalpies of transition were calculated from DSC data. The transformation of aqueous suspensions of form I to the water-stable form II is described, and the heats of solution and intrinsic aqueous dissolution rates of both polymorphs were determined. 1 also formed solvates with dimethyl sulfoxide and 1-methyl-2-pyrrolidinone. The solvates were studied by thermogravimetry, DSC, and infrared spectroscopy.

[Not Available]

The authors have determined by differential scanning calorimetry the degree of purity of some organic psychotherapeutic and analgesic drugs. The influence of parameters such as type of cup, heating rate, sensitivity, time-base is discussed and the utility and reproducibility illustrated by five determinations, under the same conditions, on each drug.