Patient flow in emergency departments: a comprehensive umbrella review of solutions and challenges across the health system

BACKGROUND

Globally, emergency departments (EDs) are overcrowded and unable to meet an ever-increasing demand for care. The aim of this study is to comprehensively review and synthesise literature on potential solutions and challenges throughout the entire health system, focusing on ED patient flow.

METHODS

An umbrella review was conducted to comprehensively summarise and synthesise the available evidence from multiple research syntheses. A comprehensive search strategy was employed in four databases alongside government or organisational websites in March 2023. Gray literature and reports were also searched. Quality was assessed using the JBI critical appraisal checklist for systematic reviews and research syntheses. We summarised and classified findings using qualitative synthesis, the Population-Capacity-Process (PCP) model, and the input/throughput/output (I/T/O) model of ED patient flow and synthesised intervention outcomes based on the Quadruple Aim framework.

RESULTS

The search strategy yielded 1263 articles, of which 39 were included in the umbrella review. Patient flow interventions were categorised into human factors, management-organisation interventions, and infrastructure and mapped to the relevant component of the patient journey from pre-ED to post-ED interventions. Most interventions had mixed or quadruple nonsignificant outcomes. The majority of interventions for enhancing ED patient flow were primarily related to the 'within-ED' phase of the patient journey. Fewer interventions were identified for the 'post-ED' phase (acute inpatient transfer, subacute inpatient transfer, hospital at home, discharge home, or residential care) and the 'pre-ED' phase. The intervention outcomes were aligned with the aim (QAIM), which aims to improve patient care experience, enhance population health, optimise efficiency, and enhance staff satisfaction.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found that there was a wide range of interventions used to address patient flow, but the effectiveness of these interventions varied, and most interventions were focused on the ED. Interventions for the remainder of the patient journey were largely neglected. The metrics reported were mainly focused on efficiency measures rather than addressing all quadrants of the quadruple aim. Further research is needed to investigate and enhance the effectiveness of interventions outside the ED in improving ED patient flow. It is essential to develop interventions that relate to all three phases of patient flow: pre-ED, within-ED, and post-ED.

Emergency Department Demand and the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic

We present a retrospective analysis of Emergency Department daily patient flow across 84 hospitals in Queensland, Australia over a four-year period from 2017 - 2020, leading up to and including the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Daily ED demand significantly increased year-on-year over the study period, though significant increases in 2020 were likely attributed to ED fever screening clinics. Compliance against a four-hour ED Length of Stay target had been slightly decreasing since 2017, and the first year of the pandemic showed significant improvements in target compliance compared to previous years for all patients including the cohort admitted from ED. The length of stay for ED patients was also significantly less in 2020 (mean = 3.1 hours) compared to previous years. As an area of topical interest, a special focus on influenza-like illness presentations to ED helps quantify changes in volume of this cohort. This knowledge assists hospitals in planning and responding to variations in hospital demand.

Linking initial microstructure and local response during quasistatic granular compaction

We performed experiments combining three-dimensional x-ray diffraction and x-ray computed tomography to explore the relationship between microstructure and local force and strain during quasistatic granular compaction. We found that initial void space around a grain and contact coordination number before compaction can be used to predict regions vulnerable to above-average local force and strain at later stages of compaction. We also found correlations between void space around a grain and coordination number, and between grain stress and maximum interparticle force, at all stages of compaction. Finally, we observed grains that fracture to have an above-average initial local void space and a below-average initial coordination number. Our findings provide (1) a detailed description of microstructure evolution during quasistatic granular compaction, (2) an approach for identifying regions vulnerable to large values of strain and interparticle force, and (3) methods for identifying regions of a material with large interparticle forces and coordination numbers from measurements of grain stress and local porosity.

Ambulance Arrivals and ED Flow - A Queensland Perspective

While it is widely accepted that whole of hospital solutions are necessary to reduce the ever-increasing burden on the public health system, little research has focussed on understanding the relationship between ambulance arrival related flow metrics and emergency department (ED) crowding. Queensland Ambulance Service (QAS) shares patient load across multiple hospitals, and receiving facilities strive to meet a Patient Off Stretcher Time (POST) target of 30 minutes. We examine ambulance arrival data from the QAS and ED patient arrival data from 15 major metropolitan hospitals across Queensland, to understand temporal variations in POST performance and examine the relationship between POST performance and ED crowding. The findings suggest a relationship between ED occupancy levels and both ambulances waiting at the ED door and average POST at larger hospitals. No relationship between POST and ED length of stay was found, perhaps due to competing ED National Emergency Access Targets (NEAT). Further modelling is recommended to formally test these observations.

The futures of pastoralism in the Horn of Africa: pathways of growth and change

This paper reviews pastoralism in the Horn of Africa region with reference to the basic socio-economics of pastoralism, and the use of mobile livestock production to generate income and food for human consumption. The paper also examines long-term trends in pastoralist areas which, at first sight, appear to be contradictory. The first trend is the growth of a substantial domestic and export trade in livestock and meat across the region, driven largely by supplies from pastoralist areas and local and international demand. This trend indicates robust and responsive livestock production and marketing in pastoralist areas, despite recurrent drought, conflict and weak governance. In contrast, the second trend sees increasing levels of poverty and destitution in pastoralist areas, and continued high levels of human malnutrition. The co-existence of economic growth and increasing poverty in 'high-export' areas is explained by human population growth, drought, and the private control of pastures and water by wealthier producers. All of these factors combine to push poorer producers out of pastoralism. In areas with lower market orientation, other forms of declining land access are often evident, including the appropriation of land for mechanised farming, hydroelectric schemes, and bush encroachment. These changes, plus population growth and drought, also push people out of pastoralism. In all areas, pastoralism will continue to be the main economic activity but, at the same time, increasing numbers of people are seeking other livelihoods.

Improved Prediction of Procedure Duration for Elective Surgery

Accurate surgery duration estimation is essential for efficient use of hospital operating theatres and the scheduling of elective patients. This study focuses on analysing the performance of previously developed surgery duration prediction algorithms at a specialty level to gain further insight on their performance. We also evaluate algorithm performance after applying filtering to exclude unreliable data from modelling, and develop and validate new ensemble approaches for prediction. These are shown to significantly improve the prediction accuracy of the algorithms. Employing filtered data delivers a reduction in overall prediction error of 44% (Mean Absolute Percentage Error from 0.68 to 0.38) employing the Random Forests algorithm, while using the newly developed ensemble approach delivers a Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 0.31, a reduction of 55% when compared to the original error, and a reduction of 18% when compared to the Random Forests performance on filtered data.

Brain microbiota disruption within inflammatory demyelinating lesions in multiple sclerosis

Microbial communities reside in healthy tissues but are often disrupted during disease. Bacterial genomes and proteins are detected in brains from humans, nonhuman primates, rodents and other species in the absence of neurological disease. We investigated the composition and abundance of microbiota in frozen and fixed autopsied brain samples from patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) and age- and sex-matched nonMS patients as controls, using neuropathological, molecular and bioinformatics tools. 16s rRNA sequencing revealed Proteobacteria to be the dominant phylum with restricted diversity in cerebral white matter (WM) from MS compared to nonMS patients. Both clinical groups displayed 1,200–1,400 bacterial genomes/cm³ and low bacterial rRNA:rDNA ratios in WM. RNAseq analyses showed a predominance of Proteobacteria in progressive MS patients’ WM, associated with increased inflammatory gene expression, relative to a broader range of bacterial phyla in relapsing-remitting MS patients’ WM. Although bacterial peptidoglycan (PGN) and RNA polymerase beta subunit immunoreactivities were observed in all patients, PGN immunodetection was correlated with demyelination and neuroinflammation in MS brains. Principal component analysis revealed that demyelination, PGN and inflammatory gene expression accounted for 86% of the observed variance. Thus, inflammatory demyelination is linked to an organ-specific dysbiosis in MS that could contribute to underlying disease mechanisms.

Analysing the emergency department patient journey: Discovery of bottlenecks to emergency department patient flow

OBJECTIVE

Despite significant workflow reform to comply with the federally mandated National Emergency Access Target (NEAT), Australian public hospitals continue to face significant barriers in achieving good ED patient flow. This study was undertaken to identify and analyse the impact of individual waypoints on an ED patient's journey and identify which waypoints act as bottlenecks to a hospital's 4 h ED disposition performance.

METHODS

This study involves retrospective analysis and simulation employing 2 years of ED administrative data from a sample of two major and two large metropolitan hospitals in Queensland, Australia. The main outcome measures included waypoint wait times (Treatment Delay and Departure Delay), ED length of stay (EDLOS) and compliance with the NEAT target, measured for all (overall NEAT) and admitted (Admitted NEAT) patients. Variations in outcome measures were analysed as functions of hour of day, day of week, departure status and triage category. Simulations identified the impact of potential ED workflow changes in the context of NEAT performance.

RESULTS

Departure Delay accounted for 60 and 20% of EDLOS across large and major metropolitan hospitals, respectively. Higher gains in NEAT compliance are associated with improvements in departure delay rather than treatment delay. Simulation identified that halving Departure Delay improves Admitted NEAT by up to 22 and 4% at large and major metropolitan hospitals, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The results reinforces the need for a whole-of-hospital effort to address flow bottlenecks, and identify moving a patient from emergency to inpatient care as the critical bottleneck in ED system performance.

Dynamic Behavior of Engineered Lattice Materials

Additive manufacturing (AM) is enabling the fabrication of materials with engineered lattice structures at the micron scale. These mesoscopic structures fall between the length scale associated with the organization of atoms and the scale at which macroscopic structures are constructed. Dynamic compression experiments were performed to study the emergence of behavior owing to the lattice periodicity in AM materials on length scales that approach a single unit cell. For the lattice structures, both bend and stretch dominated, elastic deflection of the structure was observed ahead of the compaction of the lattice, while no elastic deformation was observed to precede the compaction in a stochastic, random structure. The material showed lattice characteristics in the elastic response of the material, while the compaction was consistent with a model for compression of porous media. The experimental observations made on arrays of 4 × 4 × 6 lattice unit cells show excellent agreement with elastic wave velocity calculations for an infinite periodic lattice, as determined by Bloch wave analysis, and finite element simulations.

Improved outcomes for emergency department patients whose ambulance off-stretcher time is not delayed

OBJECTIVE

To describe and compare characteristics and outcomes of patients who arrive by ambulance to the ED. We aimed to (i) compare patients with a delayed ambulance offload time (AOT) >30 min with those who were not delayed; and (ii) identify predictors of an ED length of stay (LOS) of >4 h for ambulance-arriving patients.

METHODS

A retrospective, multi-site cohort study was undertaken in Australia using 12 months of linked health data (September 2007-2008). Outcomes of AOT delayed and non-delayed presentations were compared. Logistic regression analysis was undertaken to identify predictors of an ED LOS of >4 h.

RESULTS

Of the 40 783 linked, analysable ambulance presentations, AOT delay of >30 min was experienced by 15%, and 63% had an ED LOS of >4 h. Patients with an AOT <30 min had better outcomes for: time to triage; ambulance time at hospital; time to see healthcare professional; proportion seen within recommended triage time frame; and ED LOS for both admitted and non-admitted patients. In-hospital mortality did not differ. Strong predictors of an ED LOS >4 h included: hospital admission, older age, triage category, and offload delay >30 min.

CONCLUSION

Patients arriving to the ED via ambulance and offloaded within 30 min experience better outcomes than those delayed. Given that offload delay is a modifiable predictor of an ED LOS of >4 h, targeted improvements in the ED arrival process for ambulance patients might be useful.

Users' experiences of an emergency department patient admission predictive tool: A qualitative evaluation

Emergency department overcrowding is an increasing issue impacting patients, staff and quality of care, resulting in poor patient and system outcomes. In order to facilitate better management of emergency department resources, a patient admission predictive tool was developed and implemented. Evaluation of the tool's accuracy and efficacy was complemented with a qualitative component that explicated the experiences of users and its impact upon their management strategies, and is the focus of this article. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 15 pertinent users, including bed managers, after-hours managers, specialty department heads, nurse unit managers and hospital executives. Analysis realised dynamics of accuracy, facilitating communication and enabling group decision-making Users generally welcomed the enhanced potential to predict and plan following the incorporation of the patient admission predictive tool into their daily and weekly decision-making processes. They offered astute feedback with regard to their responses when faced with issues of capacity and communication. Participants reported an growing confidence in making informed decisions in a cultural context that is continually moving from reactive to proactive. This information will inform further patient admission predictive tool development specifically and implementation processes generally.

Impact of opening a new emergency department on healthcare service and patient outcomes: analyses based on linking ambulance, emergency and hospital databases

BACKGROUND

Emergency department (ED) crowding caused by access block is an increasing public health issue and has been associated with impaired healthcare delivery, negative patient outcomes and increased staff workload.

AIM

To investigate the impact of opening a new ED on patient and healthcare service outcomes.

METHODS

A 24-month time series analysis was employed using deterministically linked data from the ambulance service and three ED and hospital admission databases in Queensland, Australia.

RESULTS

Total volume of ED presentations increased 18%, while local population growth increased by 3%. Healthcare service and patient outcomes at the two pre-existing hospitals did not improve. These outcomes included ambulance offload time: (Hospital A PRE: 10 min, POST: 10 min, P < 0.001; Hospital B PRE: 10 min, POST: 15 min, P < 0.001); ED length of stay: (Hospital A PRE: 242 min, POST: 246 min, P < 0.001; Hospital B PRE: 182 min, POST: 210 min, P < 0.001); and access block: (Hospital A PRE: 41%, POST: 46%, P < 0.001; Hospital B PRE: 23%, POST: 40%, P < 0.001). Time series modelling indicated that the effect was worst at the hospital furthest away from the new ED.

CONCLUSIONS

An additional ED within the region saw an increase in the total volume of presentations at a rate far greater than local population growth, suggesting it either provided an unmet need or a shifting of activity from one sector to another. Future studies should examine patient decision making regarding reasons for presenting to a new or pre-existing ED. There is an inherent need to take a 'whole of health service area' approach to solve crowding issues.

Chronic nicotine improves short-term memory selectively in a G72 mouse model of schizophrenia

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The prevalence of smoking in schizophrenia patients is exceptionally high; it is not known why but many researchers suggest that smoking constitutes a form of self-medication. Among the symptoms of schizophrenia that may be improved by nicotine are cognitive deficits. Hence, we studied the effects of long-term nicotine administration on cognition in a genetic animal model of schizophrenia susceptibility, G72-transgenic (G72Tg) mice.

EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH

The effect of long-term nicotine or saline, administered by osmotic minipumps, on different cognitive domains was assessed in G72Tg mice and controls using a battery of behavioural tests. To investigate the mechanism underlying phenotypic differences, quantitative autoradiographic mapping of nACh receptor subtypes was performed in forebrain structures to explore effects of chronic nicotine exposure on nACh receptor density in wild-type (WT) and G72Tg mice.

KEY RESULTS

Genotype significantly affected the cognitive effects of chronic nicotine administration. Whereas chronic nicotine disrupted cognitive performance in WT mice, it was effective at restoring impaired prepulse inhibition, working memory and social recognition in G72Tg mice. However, long-term spatial learning was further impaired by nicotine in transgenic animals. In contrast, associative learning was protected by G72-expression against the adverse nicotine effects seen in WT animals. G72-expression did not decisively influence nicotine-induced up-regulation of the α4β2*subtype, whereas α7nACh receptor density was differentially altered by genotype or by a genotype·treatment interaction in specific brain areas, most notably hippocampal subregions.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Our data support the hypothesis that nicotine self-medication of schizophrenics improves cognitive symptoms, possibly by facilitating nicotine-induced α7nACh receptor activation in the hippocampus.

Mid-term NEAT review: analysing the improvements in hospital ED performance

Introduced with a promise to reduce overcrowding in the Emergency Department (ED) and the associated morbidity and mortality linked to bed access difficulties, the National Emergency Access Target (NEAT) is now over halfway through transitionary arrangements towards a target of 90% of patients that visit a hospital ED being admitted or discharged within 4 hours. Facilitation and reward funding has ensured hospitals around the country are remodelling workflows to ensure compliance. Recent reports however show that the majority of hospitals are still far from being able to meet this target. We investigate the NEAT journey of 30 Queensland hospitals over the past two years and compare this performance to a previous study that investigated the 4 hour ED discharge performance of these hospitals at various times of day and under varying occupancy conditions. Our findings reveal that, while most hospitals have made significant improvements to their 4 hour discharge performance in 2013, the underlying flow patterns and periods of poor NEAT compliance remain largely unchanged. The work identifies areas for targeted improvement to inform system redesign and workflow planning.

Time based clustering for analyzing acute hospital patient flow

This paper describes a novel approach employing time based clustering of health data for visualization and analysis of patient flow. Clustering inpatient and emergency department patient episodes into hourly slots based on recorded timestamps, and then grouping them on required parameters, the technique provides a powerful tool for visualizing and analyzing interactions and interdependencies between hospital patient flow parameters. To demonstrate the efficacy of the approach, we employ time based clustering to address some typical patient flow related queries and discuss the findings.

Middle cerebral artery stenosis: transcranial color-coded sonography based on continuity equation versus CT-angiography

PURPOSE

Transcranial color-coded sonography (TCCS) and CT-angiography (CTA) are reliable tools for detection of intracranial stenosis. Current ultrasonographic criteria for middle cerebral artery (MCA) stenosis are usually limited to a dichotomized grading (< or ≥ 50 %). As for carotid arteries, continuity equation might provide a more accurate evaluation of degree of MCA stenosis. We aimed to apply continuity equation to calculate degree of MCA stenosis with TCCS and to compare these results with CTA.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

All patients admitted to our Neurovascular Center with ischemic stroke or TIA underwent TCCS examination. Degree of MCA stenosis was calculated based on continuity equation as (1 - [PSVprestenotic/PSVintrastenotic] × 100) %. CTA was performed when TCCS detected MCA stenosis, and degree of stenosis was calculated by diameter (D) as: (1 - [Dprestenotic/Dintrastenotic] × 100) %. Correlation between TCCS and CTA results was tested. Continuity equation method was compared to cut-off velocity method for detection of ≥ 50 % MCA stenosis. To assess TCCS inter-observer agreement, evaluation of MCA stenosis was repeated by another neurosonographer in a subgroup of patients.

RESULTS

The overall correlation coefficient between TCCS and CTA was 0.85 (p < 0.0001). Correlation coefficient for stenosis defined with CTA as ≥ 50 % was 0.94 (p < 0.0001). TCCS inter-observer agreement on degree of stenosis was 0.85 (p = 0.001). In detection of ≥ 50 % MCA stenosis, continuity equation method showed a sensitivity of 78 % (14/18) and a specificity of 86 % (19/22), while the cut-off velocity method showed a sensitivity of 67 % (12/18) and a specificity of 86 % (19/22).

CONCLUSION

This study shows that ultrasonographic evaluation of MCA stenosis applying the continuity equation provides reproducible and accurate results, and is more sensitive in detection of ≥ 50 % MCA stenosis than cut-off velocity method.

Three-dimensional plastic response in polycrystalline coppervianear-field high-energy X-ray diffraction microscopy

The evolution of the crystallographic orientation field in a polycrystalline sample of copper is mapped in three dimensions as tensile strain is applied. Using forward-modeling analysis of high-energy X-ray diffraction microscopy data collected at the Advanced Photon Source, the ability to track intragranular orientation variations is demonstrated on an ∼2 µm length scale with ∼0.1° orientation precision. Lattice rotations within grains are tracked between states with ∼1° precision. Detailed analysis is presented for a sample cross section before and after ∼6% strain. The voxel-based (0.625 µm triangular mesh) reconstructed structure is used to calculate kernel-averaged misorientation maps, which exhibit complex patterns. Simulated scattering from the reconstructed orientation field is shown to reproduce complex scattering patterns generated by the defected microstructure. Spatial variation of a goodness-of-fit or confidence metric associated with the optimized orientation field indicates regions of relatively high or low orientational disorder. An alignment procedure is used to match sample cross sections in the different strain states. The data and analysis methods point toward the ability to perform detailed comparisons between polycrystal plasticity computational model predictions and experimental observations of macroscopic volumes of material.

Early discharge and its effect on ED length of stay and access block

Effecting early discharge is a widely recommended strategy for improving patient flow in acute hospitals. This paper analyses the impact of inpatient discharge timing on Emergency Department (ED) flow parameters such as access block and length of stay, while comparing this to the effect on hospital occupancy, to arrive at an understanding of a 'whole of hospital' response to discharge timing. The impact of hospital size is also investigated. The analysis reveals that, on days when the discharge peak lags the peak in inpatient admissions, hospitals of all sizes exhibit increased levels of occupancy, inpatient and ED length of stay, and access block. The findings corroborate the efficacy of early discharge initiatives and 'whole of hospital' flow improvement initiatives for addressing overcrowding and efficiency issues in hospitals.

Impact of influenza across 27 public emergency departments in Australia: a 5-year descriptive study

OBJECTIVE

To describe the incidence, characteristics and outcomes of patients with influenza-like symptoms presenting to 27 public hospital emergency departments (EDs) in Queensland, Australia.

METHODS

A descriptive retrospective study covering 5 years (2005-9) of historical data from 27 hospital EDs was undertaken. State-wide hospital ED Information System data were analysed. Annual comparisons between influenza and non-influenza cases were made across the southern hemisphere influenza season (June-September) each year.

RESULTS

Influenza-related presentations increased significantly over the 5 years from 3.4% in 2005 to 9.4% in 2009, reflecting a 276% relative increase. Differences over time regarding characteristics of patients with influenza-like symptoms, based on the influenza season, occurred for admission rate (decreased over time from 28% in 2005 to 18% in 2009), length of stay (decreased over time from a median of 210 min in 2005 to 164 min in 2009) and access block (increased over time from 33% to 41%). Also, every year there was a significantly (p<0.001) higher percentage of access block in the influenza cohort than in the non-influenza cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Although there was a large increase over time in influenza-related ED presentations, most patients were discharged home from the ED. Special consideration of health service delivery management (eg, establishing an 'influenza clinic border protection and public rollout of vaccination, beginning with those most at risk') for this group of patients is warranted but requires evaluation. These results may inform planning for service delivery models during the influenza season.

Predicting emergency department admissions

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate models to predict emergency department (ED) presentations and hospital admissions for time and day of the year.

METHODS

Initial model development and validation was based on 5 years of historical data from two dissimilar hospitals, followed by subsequent validation on 27 hospitals representing 95% of the ED presentations across the state. Forecast accuracy was assessed using the mean average percentage error (MAPE) between forecasts and observed data. The study also determined a daily sample size threshold for forecasting subgroups within the data.

RESULTS

Presentations to the ED and subsequent admissions to hospital beds are not random and can be predicted. Forecast accuracy worsened as the forecast time intervals became smaller: when forecasting monthly admissions, the best MAPE was approximately 2%, for daily admissions, 11%; for 4-hourly admissions, 38%; and for hourly admissions, 50%. Presentations were more easily forecast than admissions (daily MAPE ∼7%). When validating accuracy at additional hospitals, forecasts for urban facilities were generally more accurate than regional forecasts (accuracy is related to sample size). Subgroups within the data with more than 10 admissions or presentations per day had forecast errors statistically similar to the entire dataset. The study also included a software implementation of the models, resulting in a data dashboard for bed managers.

CONCLUSIONS

Valid ED prediction tools can be generated from access to de-identified historic data, which may be used to assist elective surgery scheduling and bed management. The paper provides forecasting performance levels to guide similar studies.

Phenotypic variation in a large family with autosomal dominant hypocalcaemia

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Autosomal dominant hypocalcaemia (ADH) is caused by activating mutations in the calcium- sensing receptor (CASR). We aimed to describe the phenotypic variation within a large family with ADH, especially kidney and cerebral basal ganglia calcifications.

METHODS

Fifteen related subjects carrying the CASR mutation T151M participated in a cross-sectional study of calcium homeostasis, renal ultrasonography, cerebral CT, bone mineral density, and health-related quality of life (HRQoL).

RESULTS

Eight subjects had received vitamin D treatment (mean duration 15.3 years; range 11-20 years). Urinary calcium excretion was elevated in 5/8 vitamin-D-treated and in 3/7 untreated subjects. Serum magnesium, calcium and parathyroid hormone remained at the lower reference limit or below. Renal calcifications were found in 12 of 14 (86%) and basal ganglia calcifications in 5 of 11 (46%) subjects, independently of vitamin D therapy. The glomerular filtration rate was moderately reduced in 3 subjects. Mean bone mineral density and bone markers were normal. HRQoL was impaired in the vitamin-D-treated group despite correction of the hypocalcaemia.

CONCLUSIONS

The impact of the CASR mutation on calcium homeostasis varied greatly. Kidney and basal ganglia calcifications are common in ADH independently of vitamin D treatment, which, however, increases urinary calcium excretion and may promote urolithiasis.

Impact of admission and discharge peak times on hospital overcrowding

The ability of hospital staff to get a patient to the right bed at the right time is dependent on bed occupancy, and is a key issue in all acute hospitals. This paper seeks to identify the impact of admission and discharge timing on hospital occupancy with reference to the peak in daily admissions and discharges. Patient admissions data from 23 Queensland public hospitals was classified into categories based on the relative timing of daily admission and discharge curves. We found statistically significant differences in mean and peak occupancy and patient length of stay between categories (one-way univariate ANOVA p&lt;0.0001). The results support early patient discharge initiatives to reduce hospital occupancy rates.

Manic episodes are associated with grey matter volume reduction - a voxel-based morphometry brain analysis

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether the lifetime number of affective episodes or illness duration is associated with changes in local grey matter volume, in patients with bipolar I disorder without comorbid conditions.

METHOD

Magnetic resonance imaging scans of 55 patients with bipolar I disorder were analysed using VBM.

RESULTS

Smaller grey matter volume in the inferior frontal gyri of the dorsolateral prefrontal cortices (DLPFC) correlated significantly to the lifetime number of manic episodes. No association between local grey matter volume and the lifetime number of depression episodes or illness duration was found.

CONCLUSION

We found strong evidence for a linear correlation between a decrease in DLPFC volume and the lifetime number of manic episodes in patients with bipolar I disorder. Interestingly, DLPFC is known to be important for executive functions and the findings in this study might hence be linked to the executive cognitive deficits associated with bipolar disorder.

Implementing an emergency department patient admission predictive tool: insights from practice

PURPOSE

This paper aims to show that identification of expectations and software functional requirements via consultation with potential users is an integral component of the development of an emergency department patient admissions prediction tool.

DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH

Thematic analysis of semi-structured interviews with 14 key health staff delivered rich data regarding existing practice and future needs. Participants included emergency department staff, bed managers, nurse unit managers, directors of nursing, and personnel from health administration.

FINDINGS

Participants contributed contextual insights on the current system of admissions, revealing a culture of crisis, imbued with misplayed communication. Their expectations and requirements of a potential predictive tool provided strategic data that moderated the development of the Emergency Department Patient Admissions Prediction Tool, based on their insistence that it feature availability, reliability and relevance. In order to deliver these stipulations, participants stressed that it should be incorporated, validated, defined and timely.

RESEARCH LIMITATIONS/IMPLICATIONS

Participants were envisaging a concept and use of a tool that was somewhat hypothetical. However, further research will evaluate the tool in practice.

PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS

Participants' unsolicited recommendations regarding implementation will not only inform a subsequent phase of the tool evaluation, but are eminently applicable to any process of implementation in a healthcare setting.

ORIGINALITY/VALUE

The consultative process engaged clinicians and the paper delivers an insider view of an overburdened system, rather than an outsider's observations.

Haemodynamic stability is maintained during extended daily diafiltration in critically ill septic patients

BACKGROUND

Extended daily diafiltration (EDDf) is a prolonged intermittent dialysis technique introduced as an alternative to continuous renal replacement therapy in critically ill patients. Although EDDf has the advantages of ease of use, low cost and patient tolerability, there is concern that the high blood and dialysate flow rates used with EDDf may precipitate haemodynamic instability.

OBJECTIVE

To identify whether haemodynamic changes occur during the course of EDDf therapy in adult patients who are admitted to the intensive care unit with sepsis and require dialysis.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

A prospective observational study of patients fitting the inclusion criteria who were admitted to the ICU of the Gold Coast Hospital, Queensland, during the period 1 January 2002 to 31 December 2005.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Mean arterial pressure (MAP) and heart rate (HR) before, during and after EDDf treatment.

RESULTS

178 EDDf treatments were administered to 44 patients. Haemodynamic parameters remained stable during EDDf, despite median blood flow rates of 265 mL/min and dialysate flow rates of 300 mL/min: MAP was 81.2 mmHg before EDDf v 82.7 mmHg after EDDf (P = 0.13); HR was 100.4 beats/min before EDDf v 98.9 beats/ min after EDDf (P = 0.23). For treatments in which vasopressive support was required (n = 75), no increase in dose requirement was observed. Patient mortality at the time of hospital discharge (41%) was less than the rate predicted by APACHE III scores (52%).

CONCLUSION

EDDf did not significantly worsen haemodynamic stability in patients with sepsis during their treatment.

How would Australian hospital staff react to an avian influenza admission, or an influenza pandemic?

Objective:  To estimate the expected staff absentee rates and work attitudes in an Australian tertiary hospital workforce in two hypothetical scenarios: (i) a single admission of avian influenza; and (ii) multiple admissions of human pandemic influenza.

Methods:  A survey conducted at hospital staff meetings between May and August 2006.

Results:  Out of 570 questionnaires distributed, 560 were completed. For scenario one, 72 (13%) indicated that they would not attend work, and an additional 136 (25%) would only work provided that immunizations and/or antiviral medications were immediately available, so that up to 208 (38%) would not attend work. For scenario two, 196 (36%) would not attend work, and an additional 95 (17%) would work only if immunizations and/or antiviral medications were immediately available, so that up to 291 (53%) staff would not attend work. Staff whose work required them to be in the ED (odds ratios 2.2 and 1.6 for each scenario respectively) or on acute medical wards (odds ratios 2.2 and 2.0 respectively) were more likely to work.

Conclusion:  High absenteeism among hospital staff should be anticipated if patients are admitted with either avian or pandemic influenza, particularly if specific antiviral preventative measures are not immediately available. Measures to maximize the safety of staff and their families would be important incentives to attend work. Education on realistic level of risk from avian and pandemic influenza, as well as the effectiveness of basic infection control procedures and personal protective equipment, would be useful in improving willingness to work.

Regression forecasting of patient admission data

Forecasting is an important aid in many areas of hospital management, including elective surgery scheduling, bed management, and staff resourcing. This paper describes our work in analyzing patient admission data and forecasting this data using regression techniques. Five years of Emergency Department admissions data were obtained from two hospitals with different demographic techniques. Forecasts made from regression models were compared with observed admission data over a 6-month horizon. The best method was linear regression using 11 dummy variables to model monthly variation (MAPE=1.79%). Similar performance was achieved with a 2-year average, supporting further investigation at finer time scales.

The relationship between blood glucose level and QTc duration in the critically ill

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether hyperglycaemia is associated with prolongation of the corrected QT (QTc) interval on the electrocardiogram (ECG) in critically ill patients.

DESIGN

Single-centre, prospective observational study.

PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING

197 consecutive patients admitted to the adult intensive care unit of a 570-bed teaching hospital over 10 weeks from November 2004.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Correlation between QT interval (on standard 12-lead ECG taken on ICU admission, corrected with Bazett's formula) and serum glucose level (BGL) in blood collected at time of ECG; comparison of variables, including BGL, by QTc category (< or = 0.44 s or > 0.44 s); explained variance (R(2)) of QTc, determined by multivariate regression analysis.

RESULTS

Mean patient age was 53.4 years. A moderate, positive correlation was found between QTc and BGL (Pearson's correlation coefficient, r = 0.277, P < 0.001). A standard multivariate regression model explained 32.9% (R(2)) of QTc variance, and revealed four significant, independent predictors of QTc duration: heart rate (explaining 11.4% of QTc variance), use of inotropes (10.1%), BGL (7.3%) and serum magnesium level (4.6%). In the cohort with QTc > 0.44 s, BGL was significantly higher, as were the need for inotropes, APACHE II scores and mortality. QTc was significantly longer in patients with BGL > 8 mmol/L than in those with lower BGL (0.471 v 0.442 s, P < 0.001). The only independent predictors of mortality were APACHE II score and mean arterial pressure.

CONCLUSIONS

There was a moderate, significant correlation between QTc and BGL. Patients with a QTc > 0.44 s had higher BGL, APACHE II score and mortality. BGL was an independent predictor of QTc duration, but neither BGL nor QTc were independent predictors of mortality in this study.

[Termination of pregnancy after the 20-week ultrasonographic examination: haste and caution]

The recently introduced ultrasonographic screening programme for the detection of fetal structural anomalies at 20 weeks' gestation is leading to a growing number of cases with an unclear prognosis. This article presents the decision-making process which followed the screening of two women: one aged 36 years, where a post-screening work-up was conducted and swiftly led to well-balanced decision making to abort a fetus with trisomy 21, and one woman aged 30 years, in whom repeated non-decisive results of further diagnostic tests ultimately led to a hasty decision to abort the pregnancy. Up to 24 weeks, current Dutch law allows the couple to decide to have a termination of pregnancy; thereafter the legal possibility of having a termination is very limited. This may lead to rushed decision-making. It is argued that careful decisions in these matters are more important than staying within the 24-week limit. The national central committee ofexperts which is responsible for the evaluation of all abortions after 24 weeks gestation in the so-called category 2 cases (conditions which will lead to serious and irreparable functional disorders, such as severe spina bifida and hydrocephalus, but which are compatible with life) should take account of this dilemma ofhaste and caution.

[Assessment of late pregnancy terminations, 2004-2007]

OBJECTIVE

To provide an inventory of the reported late terminations of pregnancy because ofa severe anomaly of the unborn child, i.e. termination after 24 weeks of pregnancy, in The Netherlands for the period 2004-2007.

DESIGN

Inventory and descriptive.

METHOD

A description is given of the various assessment procedures for the termination of pregnancy after 24 weeks. A distinction is made between abortion for lethal foetal abnormalities (category 1) and severe functional impairments with a limited chance for survival of the unborn (category 2). The level of caution exercised in decision making and performing category 1 terminations is assessed by the professional group, namely by the assessment committee for Late Pregnancy Termination of the Dutch Association for Gynaecology and Obstetrics. Since 15 March 2007, late pregnancy terminations that fall under category 2 have by law been assessed by a national central committee of experts. An overview of the reported cases of late terminations of pregnancy in the Netherlands for the period 2004-2007 is given.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

The number of reported terminations of pregnancy after 24 weeks (n = 72) has declined considerably since the early 1990s. A possible explanation is that due to increasing technological improvements and the implementation of prenatal screening in early preg-nancy, an abortion can be performed before the 24th week of pregnancy if any severe abnormalities are observed.

Preoperative smoking cessation: a questionnaire study

BACKGROUND

Preoperative smoking cessation has been shown to improve postoperative outcomes.

METHODS

A total of 120 anonymous questionnaires were distributed to non-vascular surgeons practising in four centres in the UK asking about their smoking cessation advice practices, and whether they appreciated both the benefits of preoperative smoking cessation, and the efficacy of smoking cessation interventions.

RESULTS

Eighty-three questionnaires were returned (response rate 69%). Twenty-three gastrointestinal surgeons, 11 orthopaedic surgeons, 9 breast surgeons, 12 plastic surgeons, 13 neurosurgeons and 15 urologists took part in this study. Eighty-eight per cent of respondents had not referred any elective patients to smoking cessation services in the previous month. Most non-vascular surgeons underestimated both the benefits of preoperative smoking cessation on outcome, and the efficacy of smoking cessation interventions.

CONCLUSIONS

This survey demonstrates that non-vascular surgeons underestimate the fact that preoperative smoking cessation can improve postoperative outcome, and that smoking cessation interventions are successful in helping patients to quit smoking. They largely do not refer patients to smoking cessation services. In order for patients to benefit postoperatively from this intervention it would be necessary to educate surgeons about the scale of the benefit, and the efficacy of smoking cessation interventions or to set up systematic frameworks to offer smoking cessation advice to preoperative patients who smoke.

Altered brain white matter integrity in healthy carriers of the APOE ε4 allele

Background: Previous research has shown that polymorphisms of apolipoprotein E (APOE) represent genetic risk factors for dementia and for cognitive impairment in the elderly. The neural mechanisms by which these genetic variations influence behavioral performance or clinical severity are not well understood.

Methods: The authors used diffusion tensor imaging to investigate ultrastructural properties in brain white matter to detect pathologic processes that modify tissue integrity. Sixty participants were included in the study of which 30 were homozygous for the APOE ε3 allele, 10 were homozygous for the APOE ε4 allele, and 20 had the APOE ε34 allele combination. All individuals were non-demented, and the groups were matched on demographic variables and cognitive performance.

Results: The results showed a decline in fractional anisotropy, a marker for white matter integrity, in the posterior corpus callosum of ε4 carriers compared to non-carriers. Additional sites of altered white matter integrity included the medial temporal lobe.

Conclusions: Although the mechanism underlying vulnerability of white matter tracts in APOE ε4 carriers is still unknown, these findings suggest that increased genetic risk for developing Alzheimer disease is associated with changes in microscopic white matter integrity well before the onset of dementia.