Nature-based solutions are critical for putting Brazil on track towards net-zero emissions by 2050

Most of the world's nations (around 130) have committed to reaching net-zero carbon dioxide or greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, yet robust policies rarely underpin these ambitions. To investigate whether existing and expected national policies will allow Brazil to meet its net-zero GHG emissions pledge by 2050, we applied a detailed regional integrated assessment modelling approach. This included quantifying the role of nature-based solutions, such as the protection and restoration of ecosystems, and engineered solutions, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Our results highlight ecosystem protection as the most critical cost-effective climate mitigation measure for Brazil, whereas relying heavily on costly and not-mature-yet engineered solutions will jeopardise Brazil's chances of achieving its net-zero pledge by mid-century. We show that the full implementation of Brazil's Forest Code (FC), a key policy for emission reduction in Brazil, would be enough for the country to achieve its short-term climate targets up to 2030. However, it would reduce the gap to net-zero GHG emissions by 38% by 2050. The FC, combined with zero legal deforestation and additional large-scale ecosystem restoration, would reduce this gap by 62% by mid-century, keeping Brazil on a clear path towards net-zero GHG emissions by around 2040. While some level of deployment of negative emissions technologies will be needed for Brazil to achieve and sustain its net-zero pledge, we show that the more mitigation measures from the land-use sector, the less costly engineered solutions from the energy sector will be required. Our analysis underlines the urgent need for Brazil to go beyond existing policies to help fight climate emergency, to align its short- and long-term climate targets, and to build climate resilience while curbing biodiversity loss.

Trophic dynamics of methylmercury and trace elements in a remote Amazonian Lake

Information on pollutant trophodynamics can be crucial for public health, as contaminated food consumption may lead to deleterious effects. This study was performed in Puruzinho Lake, a remote body of water in the Brazilian Amazon from which a riparian human population obtains an important part of its animal protein intake. Samples from 92 individuals, comprising 13 species and four trophic guilds (iliophagous, planktivorous, omnivorous, and piscivorous fish) were analysed for the determination of trace elements (Fe, Cr, Mn, Ni, Zn, Ca, Sr, Cd, Sn, Tl and Pb) and methylmercury concentrations. Samples from the same individuals had already been analysed for stable isotope (SI) measurements (δ13C and δ15N) in a previous investigation and the SI data have been statistically treated with those generated in this study for the evaluation of trophic dynamics of contaminants. Methylmercury was the only analyte that biomagnified, presenting TMF values of 4.65 and 4.55 for total and resident ichthyofauna, respectively. Trace elements presented either trophic dilution or independence from the trophic position, constituting a behaviour that was coherent with that found in the scientific literature. The similarity between Ni behaviour through the trophic web to that of essential elements contributes to the discussion on the essentiality of this metal to fish. Considering the Non-cancer Risk Assessment, the calculated Target Hazard Quotient (THQ) values were higher than 1.0 for all analysed individuals for methylmercury, as well as for only one individual for nickel. No other analyte rendered THQ values higher than 1.0.

More than 10,000 pre-Columbian earthworks are still hidden throughout Amazonia

Indigenous societies are known to have occupied the Amazon basin for more than 12,000 years, but the scale of their influence on Amazonian forests remains uncertain. We report the discovery, using LIDAR (light detection and ranging) information from across the basin, of 24 previously undetected pre-Columbian earthworks beneath the forest canopy. Modeled distribution and abundance of large-scale archaeological sites across Amazonia suggest that between 10,272 and 23,648 sites remain to be discovered and that most will be found in the southwest. We also identified 53 domesticated tree species significantly associated with earthwork occurrence probability, likely suggesting past management practices. Closed-canopy forests across Amazonia are likely to contain thousands of undiscovered archaeological sites around which pre-Columbian societies actively modified forests, a discovery that opens opportunities for better understanding the magnitude of ancient human influence on Amazonia and its current state.

Large-scale variations in the dynamics of Amazon forest canopy gaps from airborne lidar data and opportunities for tree mortality estimates

We report large-scale estimates of Amazonian gap dynamics using a novel approach with large datasets of airborne light detection and ranging (lidar), including five multi-temporal and 610 single-date lidar datasets. Specifically, we (1) compared the fixed height and relative height methods for gap delineation and established a relationship between static and dynamic gaps (newly created gaps); (2) explored potential environmental/climate drivers explaining gap occurrence using generalized linear models; and (3) cross-related our findings to mortality estimates from 181 field plots. Our findings suggest that static gaps are significantly correlated to dynamic gaps and can inform about structural changes in the forest canopy. Moreover, the relative height outperformed the fixed height method for gap delineation. Well-defined and consistent spatial patterns of dynamic gaps were found over the Amazon, while also revealing the dynamics of areas never sampled in the field. The predominant pattern indicates 20-35% higher gap dynamics at the west and southeast than at the central-east and north. These estimates were notably consistent with field mortality patterns, but they showed 60% lower magnitude likely due to the predominant detection of the broken/uprooted mode of death. While topographic predictors did not explain gap occurrence, the water deficit, soil fertility, forest flooding and degradation were key drivers of gap variability at the regional scale. These findings highlight the importance of lidar in providing opportunities for large-scale gap dynamics and tree mortality monitoring over the Amazon.

A climate-change vulnerability and adaptation assessment for Brazil's protected areas

Brazil hosts the largest expanse of tropical ecosystems within protected areas (PAs), which shelter biodiversity and support traditional human populations. We assessed the vulnerability to climate change of 993 terrestrial and coastal-marine Brazilian PAs by combining indicators of climatic-change hazard with indicators of PA resilience (size, native vegetation cover, and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition). This combination of indicators allows the identification of broad climate-change adaptation pathways. Seventeen PAs (20,611 km² ) were highly vulnerable and located mainly in the Atlantic Forest (7 PAs), Cerrado (6), and the Amazon (4). Two hundred fifty-eight PAs (756,569 km² ), located primarily in Amazonia, had a medium vulnerability. In the Amazon and western Cerrado, the projected severe climatic change and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition drove vulnerability up, despite the generally good conservation status of PAs. Over 80% of PAs of high or moderate vulnerability are managed by indigenous populations. Hence, besides the potential risks to biodiversity, the traditional knowledge and livelihoods of the people inhabiting these PAs may be threatened. In at least 870 PAs, primarily in the Atlantic Forest and Amazon, adaptation could happen with little or no intervention due to low climate-change hazard, high resilience status, or both. At least 20 PAs in the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, and Amazonia should be targeted for stronger interventions (e.g., improvement of ecological connectivity), given their low resilience status. Despite being a first attempt to link vulnerability and adaptation in Brazilian PAs, we suggest that some of the PAs identified as highly or moderately vulnerable should be prioritized for testing potential adaptation strategies in the near future.

Mercury biomagnification and the trophic structure of the ichthyofauna from a remote lake in the Brazilian Amazon

The present study assesses mercury biomagnification and the trophic structure of the ichthyofauna from the Puruzinho Lake, Brazilian Amazon. In addition to mercury determination, the investigation comprised the calculation of Trophic Magnification Factor (TMF) and Trophic Magnification Slope (TMS), through the measurements of stable isotopes of carbon (δ¹³C) and nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) in fish samples. These assessments were executed in two different scenarios, i.e., considering (1) all fish species or (2) only the resident fish (excluding the migratory species). Bottom litter, superficial sediment and seston were the sources used for generating the trophic position (TP) data used in the calculation of the TMF. Samples from 84 fish were analysed, comprising 13 species, which were categorized into four trophic guilds: iliophagous, planktivorous, omnivorous and piscivorous fish. The δ¹³C values pointed to the separation of the ichthyofauna into two groups. One group comprised iliophagous and planktivorous species, which are linked to the food chains of phytoplankton and detritus. The other group was composed by omnivorous and piscivorous fish, which are associated to the trophic webs of phytoplankton, bottom litter, detritus, periphyton, as well as to food chains of igapó (blackwater-flooded Amazonian forests). The TP values suggest that the ichthyofauna from the Puruzinho Lake is part of a short food web, with three well-characterized trophic levels. Mercury concentrations and δ¹³C values point to multiple sources for Hg input and transfer. The similarity in Hg levels and TP values between piscivorous and planktivorous fish suggests a comparable efficiency for the transfer of this metal through pelagic and littoral food chains. Regarding the two abovementioned scenarios, i.e., considering (1) the entire ichthyofauna and (2) only the resident species, the TMF values were 5.25 and 4.49, as well as the TMS values were 0.21 and 0.19, respectively. These findings confirm that Hg biomagnifies through the food web of Puruzinho Lake ichthyofauna. The migratory species did not significantly change mercury biomagnification rate in Puruzinho Lake; however, they may play a relevant role in Hg transport. The biomagnification rate (TMS value) in Puruzinho Lake was higher than the average values for its latitude, being comparable to TMS values of temperate and polar systems (marine and freshwater environments).

Evolution and challenges of dynamic global vegetation models for some aspects of plant physiology and elevated atmospheric CO2

Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) simulate surface processes such as the transfer of energy, water, CO2, and momentum between the terrestrial surface and the atmosphere, biogeochemical cycles, carbon assimilation by vegetation, phenology, and land use change in scenarios of varying atmospheric CO2 concentrations. DGVMs increase the complexity and the Earth system representation when they are coupled with atmospheric global circulation models (AGCMs) or climate models. However, plant physiological processes are still a major source of uncertainty in DGVMs. The maximum velocity of carboxylation (Vcmax), for example, has a direct impact over productivity in the models. This parameter is often underestimated or imprecisely defined for the various plant functional types (PFTs) and ecosystems. Vcmax is directly related to photosynthesis acclimation (loss of response to elevated CO2), a widely known phenomenon that usually occurs when plants are subjected to elevated atmospheric CO2 and might affect productivity estimation in DGVMs. Despite this, current models have improved substantially, compared to earlier models which had a rudimentary and very simple representation of vegetation-atmosphere interactions. In this paper, we describe this evolution through generations of models and the main events that contributed to their improvements until the current state-of-the-art class of models. Also, we describe some main challenges for further improvements to DGVMs.

Toward an integrated monitoring framework to assess the effects of tropical forest degradation and recovery on carbon stocks and biodiversity

Tropical forests harbor a significant portion of global biodiversity and are a critical component of the climate system. Reducing deforestation and forest degradation contributes to global climate-change mitigation efforts, yet emissions and removals from forest dynamics are still poorly quantified. We reviewed the main challenges to estimate changes in carbon stocks and biodiversity due to degradation and recovery of tropical forests, focusing on three main areas: (1) the combination of field surveys and remote sensing; (2) evaluation of biodiversity and carbon values under a unified strategy; and (3) research efforts needed to understand and quantify forest degradation and recovery. The improvement of models and estimates of changes of forest carbon can foster process-oriented monitoring of forest dynamics, including different variables and using spatially explicit algorithms that account for regional and local differences, such as variation in climate, soil, nutrient content, topography, biodiversity, disturbance history, recovery pathways, and socioeconomic factors. Generating the data for these models requires affordable large-scale remote-sensing tools associated with a robust network of field plots that can generate spatially explicit information on a range of variables through time. By combining ecosystem models, multiscale remote sensing, and networks of field plots, we will be able to evaluate forest degradation and recovery and their interactions with biodiversity and carbon cycling. Improving monitoring strategies will allow a better understanding of the role of forest dynamics in climate-change mitigation, adaptation, and carbon cycle feedbacks, thereby reducing uncertainties in models of the key processes in the carbon cycle, including their impacts on biodiversity, which are fundamental to support forest governance policies, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation.

Climate change in Brazil: perspective on the biogeochemistry of inland waters

Although only a small amount of the Earth's water exists as continental surface water bodies, this compartment plays an important role in the biogeochemical cycles connecting the land to the atmosphere. The territory of Brazil encompasses a dense river net and enormous number of shallow lakes. Human actions have been heavily influenced by the inland waters across the country. Both biodiversity and processes in the water are strongly driven by seasonal fluvial forces and/or precipitation. These macro drivers are sensitive to climate changes. In addition to their crucial importance to humans, inland waters are extremely rich ecosystems, harboring high biodiversity, promoting landscape equilibrium (connecting ecosystems, maintaining animal and plant flows in the landscape, and transferring mass, nutrients and inocula), and controlling regional climates through hydrological-cycle feedback. In this contribution, we describe the aquatic ecological responses to climate change in a conceptual perspective, and we then analyze the possible climate-change scenarios in different regions in Brazil. We also indentify some potential biogeochemical signals in running waters, natural lakes and man-made impoundments. The possible future changes in climate and aquatic ecosystems in Brazil are highly uncertain. Inland waters are pressured by local environmental changes because of land uses, landscape fragmentation, damming and diversion of water bodies, urbanization, wastewater load, and level of pollutants can alter biogeochemical patterns in inland waters over a shorter term than can climate changes. In fact, many intense environmental changes may enhance the effects of changes in climate. Therefore, the maintenance of key elements within the landscape and avoiding extreme perturbation in the systems are urgent to maintain the sustainability of Brazilian inland waters, in order to prevent more catastrophic future events.

Nitrogen mass balance in the Brazilian Amazon: an update

The main purpose of this study is to perform a nitrogen budget survey for the entire Brazilian Amazon region. The main inputs of nitrogen to the region are biological nitrogen fixation occurring in tropical forests (7.7 Tg.yr-1), and biological nitrogen fixation in agricultural lands mainly due to the cultivation of a large area with soybean, which is an important nitrogen-fixing crop (1.68 Tg.yr-1). The input due to the use of N fertilizers (0.48 Tg.yr-1) is still incipient compared to the other two inputs mentioned above. The major output flux is the riverine flux, equal to 2.80 Tg.yr-1 and export related to foodstuff, mainly the transport of soybean and beef to other parts of the country. The continuous population growth and high rate of urbanization may pose new threats to the nitrogen cycle of the region through the burning of fossil fuel and dumping of raw domestic sewage in rivers and streams of the region.

Geographical patterns of human diet derived from stable-isotope analysis of fingernails

Carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios of human fingernails were measured in 490 individuals in the western US and 273 individuals in southeastern Brazil living in urban areas, and 53 individuals living in a moderately isolated area in the central Amazon region of Brazil and consuming mostly locally grown foods. In addition, we measured the carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios of common food items to assess the extent to which these isotopic signatures remain distinct for people eating both omnivorous and vegetarian diets and living in different parts of the world, and the extent to which dietary information can be interpreted from these analyses. Fingernail delta13C values (mean +/- standard deviation) were -15.4 +/- 1.0 and -18.8 +/- 0.8 per thousand and delta15N values were 10.4 +/- 0.7 and 9.4 +/- 0.6 per thousand for southeastern Brazil and western US populations, respectively. Despite opportunities for a "global supermarket" effect to swamp out carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios in these two urbanized regions of the world, differences in the fingernail isotope ratios between southeastern Brazil and western US populations persisted, and appeared to be more associated with regional agricultural and animal production practices. Omnivores and vegetarians from Brazil and the US were isotopically distinct, both within and between regions. In a comparison of fingernails of individuals from an urban city and isolated communities in the Amazonian region, the urban region was similar to southeastern Brazil, whereas individuals from isolated nonurban communities showed distinctive isotopic values consistent with their diets and with the isotopic values of local foods. Although there is a tendency for a "global supermarket" diet, carbon and nitrogen isotopes of human fingernails hold dietary information directly related to both food sources and dietary practices in a region.

The Piracicaba River basin: isotope hydrology of a tropical river basin under anthropogenic stress

The stable isotope content of samples of precipitation and of the river water throughout the Piracicaba basin in Brazil was measured over a two-year period. The isotope values of precipitation follow a consistent pattern of relatively depleted values of both deuterium and oxygen 18 during the rainy summers and enriched ones during the dry winters, with all values aligned slightly above the Global Meteoric Water Line. The isotopic composition of the river water throughout the basin shows a remarkable spatial coherence and much smaller scatter of data than those of the precipitation. The isotope composition of river water is close to that of the precipitation in the rainy season, however, with a consistent lower d-excess value by 1/1000-2/1000. This is attributed to evaporative water loss in the basin, in part an expression of the recycling of water due to the anthropogenic activity in the region. The more divergent values are recorded during high-water stages in the rivers. In many cases, the floods during the beginning of the rainy season are characterized by an enrichment of the heavy isotopes and lower d-excess values when compared to the precipitation, with the opposite situation later in the rainy season. This is interpreted as resulting from the watershed/riverflow interaction pattern, and it thus suggests that the isotope composition can monitor the hydrologic situation in the basin and its changes.

Stable carbon isotopic composition of the wine and CO2 bubbles of sparkling wines: detecting C4 sugar additions

Sparkling wines have become a popular beverage in recent years, and the production of these wines is subject to adulteration during fermentation. This study investigated the stable carbon isotopic composition (expressed as delta(13)C) of the wine and of the CO(2) bubbles produced during the second fermentation for a number of sparkling wines produced in different countries around the world. Carbon isotope ratio analyses were used to estimate the addition of sugar obtained from C(4) plants (sugar cane or corn). The average delta(13)C values of the Brazilian brut, demi-sec, and doux sparkling wines were -20.5 +/- 1.2 per thousand (n = 18), -18.1 +/- 1.3 per thousand (n = 9), and -15.8 per thousand (n = 1), respectively. These values were statistically heavier (more positive carbon isotope ratio values) than the average delta(13)C of sparkling wines produced in other parts of South America (Argentina and Chile, -26.1 +/- 1.6 per thousand, n = 5) and Europe (France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, and Spain, -25.5 +/- 1.2 per thousand, n = 12), but not statistically different from sparkling wines produced in the United States or Australia. The most likely explanation for differences in the carbon isotope ratios of wines from these different regions is the addition of C(4) sugar during the production of some sparkling wines from Australia, Brazil, and the United States. The isotopic composition of the CO(2) bubbles (delta(13)C-CO(2)) followed similar trends. The average delta(13)C-CO(2) of most of the Brazilian and Argentine sparkling wines was -10.8 +/- 1.2 per thousand (n = 23), indicating that the likely source of carbon for the second fermentation was sugar cane. Conversely, the average delta(13)C-CO(2) of most of the sparkling wines produced in Chile and Europe was -22.0 +/- 1.2 per thousand (n = 13), suggesting that a different sugar (most likely sugar beet) was most used in the second fermentation. It was concluded that in many cases, the carbon isotope ratios of sparkling wine and CO(2) bubbles can provide valuable information about the sugar sources.