Predicting the development of liver cirrhosis by simple modelling in patients with chronic hepatitis C

BACKGROUND

Data are scarce on the natural history of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) in patients with mild hepatitis C who did not respond to anti-viral therapy.

AIM

To predict the risk of progression to cirrhosis, identifying patients with the more urgent need for therapy with effective anti-virals.

METHODS

A cohort of 1289 noncirrhotic CHC patients treated with interferon-based therapy between 1990 and 2004 in two referral hospitals were followed up for a median of 12 years.

RESULTS

Overall, SVR was achieved in 46.6% of patients. Data from a randomly split sample (n = 832) was used to estimate a model to predict outcomes. Among nonresponders (n = 444), cirrhosis developed in 123 (28%) patients. In this group, the 3, 5 and 10-year cumulative probabilities of cirrhosis were 4%, 7% and 22%, respectively, compared to <1% in the SVR-group (P < 0.05). Baseline factors independently associated with progression to cirrhosis in nonresponders were: fibrosis ≥F2, age >40 years, AST >100 IU/L, GGT >40 IU/L. Three logistic regression models that combined these simple variables were highly accurate in predicting the individual risk of developing cirrhosis with areas under the receiving operating characteristic curves (AUC) at 5, 7 and 10 years of ~0.80. The reproducibility of the models in the validation cohort (n = 457, nonresponders = 244), was consistently high.

CONCLUSIONS

Modelling based on simple laboratory and clinical data can accurately identify the individual risk of progression to cirrhosis in nonresponder patients with chronic hepatitis C, becoming a very helpful tool to prioritise the start of oral anti-viral therapy in clinical practice.

Association Between Severe Portal Hypertension and Risk of Liver Decompensation in Patients With Hepatitis C, Regardless of Response to Antiviral Therapy

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) is associated with a risk of liver events in patients with chronic hepatitis C. Antiviral therapies that lead to a sustained virologic response (SVR) reduce portal pressure and prevent liver disease progression. However, it is not clear to what extent the progression of hepatitis C is modified once patients develop cirrhosis with severe portal hypertension (CSPH) (HVPG ≥ 10 mm Hg). We assessed the effects of HVPG and SVR on the risk of liver decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma, and/or death in patients with hepatitis C-related cirrhosis.

METHODS

We collected data from 100 patients with hepatitis C and compensated cirrhosis who underwent HVPG measurement 3 months or less before (baseline) and 24 weeks after therapy with pegylated interferon alfa-2a and ribavirin at 4 hospitals in Spain, from 2001 through 2009. SVR was defined as undetectable serum HCV RNA level 24 weeks after treatment ended. Clinical data were collected until death, liver transplantation, or December 2012 (median, 5 y; interquartile range, 1.4-7 y).

RESULTS

Seventy-four patients had CSPH at baseline and 35% of patients achieved an SVR. During the follow-up period, 19 patients developed liver decompensation (ascites, variceal bleeding, or encephalopathy). The actuarial probability values for liver decompensation at 1, 5, and 7 years were 3%, 19% and 22%, respectively. The baseline level of HVPG, but not SVR, was associated independently with the risk of liver decompensation.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with CSPH, regardless of an SVR to therapy for hepatitis C, remain at risk for liver decompensation within the first 5 years after treatment; they should be monitored closely.

Prevalence and clinical relevance of occult hepatitis B in the fibrosis progression and antiviral response to INF therapy in HIV-HCV-coinfected patients

Occult hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is diagnosed when HBc antibodies (HBcAb) and HBV DNA are detectable in serum while hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) is not. This situation has been frequently described in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. The objective of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of occult hepatitis B in HIV-HCV-coinfected patients and its clinical relevance in liver histology and viral response after interferon therapy for HCV. A total of 238 HIV-HCV-infected patients,negative for HBsAg, were included. Serum samples were analyzed for the presence of HBV DNA and HBcAb.HBV DNA quantification was determined with the Cobas TaqMan HBV Test (detection limit 6 IU/ml). Data from liver biopsy and laboratory tests were also analyzed. HBcAb resulted in 142 (60%) patients, being the independent associated factors: male gender, previous history of intravenous drug use, age, CD4 count,and HAV antibody presence. Among 90 HBcAb patients that we could analyze, HBV DNA was positive in 15 (16.7% of occult hepatitis B infection in this group, and 6.3% in the whole HIV-HCV cohort studied). No baseline factors, liver histology, or HCV therapy response were related to the presence of HBV DNA. We found that occult hepatitis B is a frequent condition present in at least 6.3% of our HCV-HIV patients and in more than 16% of those with HBcAb. Despite the high prevalence, this phenomenon does not seem to affect the clinical evolution of chronic hepatitis C or modify the viral response to interferon-based HCV therapies

Long-term follow-up of chronic hepatitis C in patients diagnosed at a tertiary-care center

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The natural history of chronic hepatitis C (HCV) is not completely understood. This study was aimed to evaluate the long-term outcome of the disease over a prolonged period of time and to identify factors associated with progression.

METHODS

One hundred and sixteen patients with non-cirrhotic chronic non-A, non-B hepatitis consecutively diagnosed at a tertiary hospital between 1971 and 1977 were followed until December 1998 or until death. Patients with significant alcohol intake were excluded from the study. Variables obtained at the time of diagnosis, including epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and histological data were recorded to determine risk factors associated with the development of liver cirrhosis and hepatic decompensation.

RESULTS

Based on complete follow-up data, the development of liver cirrhosis and hepatic decompensation was evaluated in 94 and 114 of the 116 patients, respectively. Thirty-seven (39.3%) of 94 patients developed liver cirrhosis; an aspartate aminotransferase (AST) value higher than 70 IU/L was associated with development of cirrhosis (odds ratio (OR) 4.22, 95% CI 1.3-13.8). Hepatic decompensation occurred in 12 (10.5%) of 114 patients, its cumulative probability being 2.8% at 10 years, 5.2% at 15 years and 19.8% at 20 years. The only factor independently associated to the development of hepatic decompensation was the presence of fibrosis (stage 2 or 3) in the initial liver biopsy (OR 4.1, IC 95% 1.22-13.9). Liver-related death occurred only in seven (6%) of 114 patients. In comparison with the 116 patients diagnosed in the 1970's, patients with chronic hepatitis C diagnosed in 1999 were younger, more often asymptomatic, had lower AST and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) values and had significantly lower grade and stage histological scores.

CONCLUSIONS

In summary, chronic hepatitis C had a high rate of progression to liver cirrhosis over a prolonged follow-up. However, this might be related to the fact that two decades ago the diagnosis was made at a significantly more advanced stage of the disease. Patients at high risk of progression can be identified by biochemical and histological variables at the time of diagnosis.

Prevalence and mother-to-infant transmission of hepatitis viruses B, C, and E in Southern Tanzania

Hepatitis B and C markers were tested in 980 pregnant women, in the infants born to infected mothers, and in a random sample of 42 and 50, respectively, children born to uninfected mothers in Tanzania. Sixty-two women (6.3%) were positive for HBsAg and 15 (24%) were HBeAg-seropositive. Anti-HCV was detected in 49 women (5%), 15 (31%) of whom had detectable viremia. HCV RNA serum levels were low and only genotype 4 was identified. Sixty-six women (6.7%) were positive for anti-HIV, six of whom were coinfected with HBV and one with HCV. Anti-HEV was negative in the 180 women tested. At 8 months of age, HBsAg was detected in 8% and 2% of children born to HBV-infected and noninfected mothers, respectively (P = 0.2). Corresponding figures at 18 months of age were 31% and 21% (P = 0.3). When tested at 2 months of age, HCV RNA was not detected in any of the 43 children born to anti-HCV-positive mothers nor in any of 50 children born to anti-HCV-negative mothers. At 18 months, only one child, born to an anti-HCV-positive mother, had detectable HCV RNA. None of the infants born to women with HIV coinfection were infected with hepatitis viruses. This study suggests that exposure to HEV does not occur in southern Tanzania. The prevalence of current HBV infection in pregnant women from rural Tanzania is lower than in other sub-Saharan areas. In early childhood, HBV infection appears to occur by horizontal rather than maternofilial mechanisms of transmission. The prevalence of HCV infection is similar to that in other African countries. The results of this study show for the first time in Africa that mother-to-infant transmission does not play a significant role in the acquisition of HCV infection.

[Pretreatment with prednisolone enhances the effect of human lymphoblastoid interferon in chronic hepatitis B]

Patients (n = 213) with chronic hepatitis B were randomised to prednisolone (two weeks of 0.6 mg/kg/day, one week of 0.45 mg/kg/day and one week of 0.25 mg/kg/day) or placebo followed by two weeks rest, and were then given human lymphoblastoid interferon 10 MU daily for five days followed by 10 MU thrice weekly for 11 weeks. There were statistically significant effects of prednisolone pre-treatment on both HBeAg disappearance and HBeAg to anti-HBe seroconversion (log rank test statistics 5.43; p = 0.02 and 4.75; p = 0.03). HBeAg disappearance and HBeAg to anti-HBe seroconversion rates were 28 vs. 44% and 23 vs. 38% (placebo vs. prednisolone). Fifteen patients (7.5%) lost HBsAg. Three out of 22 cirrhotic patients (14%), one of whom received prednisolone pre-treatment, developed hepatic decompensation with a fatal outcome. Prednisolone pre-treatment, enhances the effect of lymphoblastoid interferon in chronic hepatitis B. Interferon treatment (with and without prednisolone) should be used with caution in patients with cirrhosis and avoided in patients with evidence of hepatic decompensation.

Prednisolone withdrawal therapy enhances the effect of human lymphoblastoid interferon in chronic hepatitis B. INTERPRED Trial Group

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The aim of this multicentre, randomised, controlled, clinical trial was to evaluate the effect of prednisolone followed by lymphoblastoid interferon treatment in chronic hepatitis B.

METHODS

Two hundred and thirteen patients with chronic hepatitis B were randomised to either prednisolone (2 weeks of 0.6 mg/kg/day, 1 week of 0.45 mg/kg/day and 1 week of 0.25 mg/kg/day) or matching placebo followed by a 2-week rest phase and then human lymphoblastoid interferon 10 MU daily for 5 days followed by 10 MU thrice weekly for 11 weeks. Of 200 evaluable patients, 33 (16.5%) were females, and 50 (25%) were male homosexuals. Thirty three patients (16.5%) had chronic persistent hepatitis, 145 (72.5%) had chronic active hepatitis and 22 (11%) had active cirrhosis.

RESULTS

Survival analysis disclosed statistically significant effects of prednisolone pre-treatment on both HBeAg disappearance and HBeAg to anti-HBe seroconversion (log-rank test statistics 5.43; p = 0.02 and 4.75; p = 0.03). Observed HBeAg disappearance and HBeAg to anti-HBe seroconversion rates (placebo vs. prednisolone patients) were 28% vs. 44% and 23% vs. 38%. Six months after stopping interferon, HBV DNA was negative in 51% of prednisolone patients vs. 28% of placebo patients (Chi-square test statistic 6.13; p = 0.013). Prednisolone pre-treatment tended to be more effective in patients with higher transaminase levels and in patients with low levels of HBV DNA. Fifteen patients (7.5%) (13 within 1 year of follow-up) eventually lost HBsAg; 14 of these subsequently developed anti-HBs. Interferon treatment was modified in 102 patients (51%). Three out of 22 patients with cirrhosis (14%), one of whom received prednisolone pre-treatment, developed hepatic decompensation with a fatal outcome while on interferon treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Prednisolone pre-treatment significantly enhanced the treatment effect of lymphoblastoid interferon in terms of HBeAg clearance and seroconversion to anti-HBe. Treatment should be used with caution in patients with cirrhosis and avoided in patients showing signs, or with a history, of decompensated cirrhosis.

Epidemiological, clinical and therapeutic associations of hepatitis C types in western European patients

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Different variants of hepatitis C virus might show different susceptibility to interferon alpha treatment, but it is important to understand whether this difference in sensitivity reflects an association with other factors, such as cirrhosis or age.

METHODS

We have used an enzyme-linked immunosorbent hepatitis C virus typing assay based upon the detection of antibody in patient's era to type-specific NS-4 antigens to investigate the effect of hepatitis C virus type in 610 patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection. The influence of viral types and their interdependency with host factors were separately analyzed to establish which factors executed an independent effect on the probability of sustained response.

RESULTS

There was a marked difference in the distribution of hepatitis C virus types with age: infection with type 3 was more common in younger patients. The distribution of hepatitis C virus type with age is accounted for by differences in risk-factors for infection in different age groups. The frequency of cirrhosis increased markedly with age. Even after standardization for age, center and the presence of cirrhosis, viral type was strongly related to the outcome of infection.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data suggest that enzyme-linked immunosorbent hepatitis C virus typing could assist in patient selection for interferon treatment to improve sustained response rates. Together with measurement of viral load, hepatitis C virus typing may serve to indicate the probability of response in patients with chronic hepatitis C, and to elucidate antiviral mechanisms in the disease. The serotyping assay provides a relatively inexpensive screening method to determine the infecting hepatitis C virus type, which could facilitate therapeutic decisions and strategies in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

Treatment of chronic hepatitis B in children with recombinant alfa interferon. Different response according to age at infection

The objective of this study was to investigate the possibility of predictive factors of response to treatment with interferon in children with chronic hepatitis B virus infection. We analyzed the influence on the response rate of age, sex, mode of acquisition of infection, severity, and duration of disease in 16 children with chronic hepatitis B treated with 3 MU of recombinant alpha-interferon 2b three times a week for 6 months. Six months after the end of treatment, eight patients (50%) had cleared HBV DNA, seroconverted to anti-HBe and normalized serum transaminase values. Response was significantly higher in those whose serum transaminase levels were > 100 IU/liter before treatment (70%) and those infected after birth (72%) compared with those with lower serum transaminase levels (16%) and those infected at birth (7%). Our findings indicate that a 6 month course of low dose interferon (3 MU) is highly effective in children with horizontally transmitted chronic hepatitis B virus infection, but noneffective in children infected at birth.

Incidence and features of liver disease in patients on chronic hemodialysis

We examined the incidence and features of liver disease and the presence of serologic markers of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in 134 patients on hemodialysis for 2 to 14 years. Twenty-three patients (17%) had had a single episode of acute hepatitis while on dialysis and two patients had had two episodes, which were attributed to infection by hepatitis B virus in 7 instances and by hepatitis non-A, non-B virus in 20. Chronicity supervened in 4 cases of hepatitis B (57%) and in 14 cases of hepatitis non-A, non-B (70%). A prolonged rise of serum aminotransferases, which was not preceded by acute hepatitis, was detected in 23 additional patients (17%). Acute hepatitis and prolonged hypertransaminasemia were more frequent in patients dialyzed at a hospital unit than in patients dialyzed outside the hospital or at home. These observations indicate that development of acute and chronic liver disease, mainly hepatitis non-A, non-B, is frequent in patients on chronic hemodialysis, particularly in those dialyzed in hospital. Serologic evidence of current or past infection by HBV was detected in 57 patients (42%) with sustained positivity of HBV serum markers. Transient positivity for anti-HBc, anti-HBs, or both, possibly related to passive transmission of antibodies by blood transfusion, was observed in 20 patients (15%). These findings indicate that periodic, repeated testing for HBV serum markers is necessary only in a minority of patients on long-term hemodialysis.

Prevalence of antibodies to hepatitis C virus in Spanish patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and hepatic cirrhosis

The prevalence of antibodies against hepatitis C virus (HCV) was investigated in 96 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, 106 patients with liver cirrhosis without evidence of cancer, and 177 controls without liver disease. 75% of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma had HCV antibodies (anti-HCV), a significantly higher proportion than that observed in patients with cirrhosis (55.6%), or controls (7.3%). The prevalence of anti-HCV was significantly higher in patients with alcoholic cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (76%) than in patients with alcoholic cirrhosis alone (38.7%) whereas in patients with cryptogenic cirrhosis there was no significant difference between those with and without primary liver cell cancer (81.4% and 77.5%, respectively). These results indicate that HCV infection may have a role in the pathogenesis of hepatocellular carcinoma, even in patients with chronic liver disease apparently related to other agents such as alcohol, and that this recently identified hepatitis virus may be found in a large proportion of patients with cryptogenic cirrhosis.

Influence of HBV replication and delta agent superinfection on T cell subsets and killer (Leu 7+) in chronic hepatitis B virus infection

Peripheral blood T-lymphocyte subsets and cells reacting for Leu 7 antigen, which identifies a subset of killer and natural killer cells, have been examined in 32 patients chronically infected by the hepatitis B or D viruses (HBV, HDV) and in 28 normal subjects. The T8+ lymphocytes were increased and the T4/T8 ratio was decreased in patients with HBV replication (identified by the presence of HBcAg in liver and HBV-DNA in serum) and in patients with HDV infection (HDAg in liver). These patients had more active liver disease than patients without evidence of viral replication, B or D, who showed normal lymphocyte counts. Leu 7+ lymphocytes were also increased in patients with viral replication and active disease and correlated positively with alaninaminotransferase serum levels. These observations suggest the participation of both T8+ and Leu7+ cells in the pathogenesis of liver cell injury in HBsAg-positive chronic liver disease.