Dynamic updating of clinical survival prediction models in a changing environment

BACKGROUND

Over time, the performance of clinical prediction models may deteriorate due to changes in clinical management, data quality, disease risk and/or patient mix. Such prediction models must be updated in order to remain useful. In this study, we investigate dynamic model updating of clinical survival prediction models. In contrast to discrete or one-time updating, dynamic updating refers to a repeated process for updating a prediction model with new data. We aim to extend previous research which focused largely on binary outcome prediction models by concentrating on time-to-event outcomes. We were motivated by the rapidly changing environment seen during the COVID-19 pandemic where mortality rates changed over time and new treatments and vaccines were introduced.

METHODS

We illustrate three methods for dynamic model updating: Bayesian dynamic updating, recalibration, and full refitting. We use a simulation study to compare performance in a range of scenarios including changing mortality rates, predictors with low prevalence and the introduction of a new treatment. Next, the updating strategies were applied to a model for predicting 70-day COVID-19-related mortality using patient data from QResearch, an electronic health records database from general practices in the UK.

RESULTS

In simulated scenarios with mortality rates changing over time, all updating methods resulted in better calibration than not updating. Moreover, dynamic updating outperformed ad hoc updating. In the simulation scenario with a new predictor and a small updating dataset, Bayesian updating improved the C-index over not updating and refitting. In the motivating example with a rare outcome, no single updating method offered the best performance.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that a dynamic updating process outperformed one-time discrete updating in the simulations. Bayesian updating offered good performance overall, even in scenarios with new predictors and few events. Intercept recalibration was effective in scenarios with smaller sample size and changing baseline hazard. Refitting performance depended on sample size and produced abrupt changes in hazard ratio estimates between periods.

Mediation of the total effect of cystic fibrosis-related diabetes on mortality: A UK Cystic Fibrosis Registry cohort study

AIM

To investigate whether the effect of cystic fibrosis-related diabetes (CFRD) on the composite outcome of mortality or transplant could act through lung function, pulmonary exacerbations and/or nutritional status.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort of adult cystic fibrosis (CF) patients who had not been diagnosed with CFRD were identified from the UK Cystic Fibrosis Registry (n = 2750). Rate of death or transplant was compared between patients who did and did not develop CFRD (with insulin use) during follow-up using Poisson regression, separately by sex. Causal mediation methods were used to investigate whether lung function, pulmonary exacerbations and nutritional status lie on the causal pathway between insulin-treated CFRD and mortality/transplant.

RESULTS

At all ages, the mortality/transplant rate was higher in both men and women diagnosed with CFRD. Pulmonary exacerbations were the strongest mediator of the effect of CFRD on mortality/transplant, with an estimated 15% [95% CI: 7%, 28%] of the effect at 2 years post-CFRD diagnosis attributed to exacerbations, growing to 24% [95% CI: 9%, 46%] at 4 years post-diagnosis. Neither lung function nor nutritional status were found to be significant mediators of this effect. Estimates were similar but with wider confidence intervals in a cohort that additionally included people with CFRD but not using insulin.

CONCLUSION

There is evidence that pulmonary exacerbations mediate the effect of CFRD on mortality but, as they are estimated to mediate less than one-quarter of the total effect, the mechanism through which CFRD influences survival may involve other factors.

Methods of analysis for survival outcomes with time-updated mediators, with application to longitudinal disease registry data

Mediation analysis is a useful tool to illuminate the mechanisms through which an exposure affects an outcome but statistical challenges exist with time-to-event outcomes and longitudinal observational data. Natural direct and indirect effects cannot be identified when there are exposure-induced confounders of the mediator-outcome relationship. Previous measurements of a repeatedly-measured mediator may themselves confound the relationship between the mediator and the outcome. To overcome these obstacles, two recent methods have been proposed, one based on path-specific effects and one based on an additive hazards model and the concept of exposure splitting. We investigate these techniques, focusing on their application to observational datasets. We apply both methods to an analysis of the UK Cystic Fibrosis Registry dataset to identify how much of the relationship between onset of cystic fibrosis-related diabetes and subsequent survival acts through pulmonary function. Statistical properties of the methods are investigated using simulation. Both methods produce unbiased estimates of indirect and direct effects in scenarios consistent with their stated assumptions but, if the data are measured infrequently, estimates may be biased. Findings are used to highlight considerations in the interpretation of the observational data analysis.

Polymethylmethacrylate particles enhance DNA and protein synthesis of human fibroblasts in vitro

Aseptic loosening of polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) fixed prosthesis is characterized by formation of a radiolucent fibrous membrane, accumulation of inflammatory cells and osteolysis. Since this membrane is produced by fibroblasts, it is likely that these connective tissue cells play a critical role in the loosening process. Whether fibroblasts form the radiolucent membrane in response to stimulation by PMMA has not yet been established, nor is it known whether fibroblasts play a role in attracting inflammatory cells to the bone-cement interface by secreting chemical mediators. To address this question, we analyzed the in vitro response of normal human fibroblasts to PMMA. Cells were plated with 10(5)/mL Dulbecco minimal essential medium and were incubated 4 h later with PMMA particles, polystyrene (PS) particles, or medium alone. Proliferative capacity monitored by incorporation of 3H-thymidine was significantly increased following a 48 h exposure to PMMA. Protein synthesis determined by incorporation of 14C-leucine and 14C-proline was also increased. In contrast, levels of secreted prostaglandin (PG) E2 assayed immunoenzymatically was not altered by PMMA. Fibroblasts exposed to control PS did not change their proliferative or protein synthetic activity. Fibroblasts internalized PMMA and PS particles without detectable ultrastructural damage. PMMA enhancement of fibroblast proliferative capacity and protein synthetic ability observed in our in vitro assay system suggests similar effects on fibroblasts in vivo.