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Blake HA, Sharples LD, Boyle JM, Kuryba A, Moonesinghe SR, Murray D, Hill J, Fearnhead NS, van der Meulen JH, Walker K. Improving risk models for patients having emergency bowel cancer surgery using linked electronic health records: a national cohort study. Int J Surg 2024; 110:1564-1576. [PMID: 38285065 PMCID: PMC10942147 DOI: 10.1097/js9.0000000000000966] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/01/2023] [Accepted: 11/21/2023] [Indexed: 01/30/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Life-saving emergency major resection of colorectal cancer (CRC) is a high-risk procedure. Accurate prediction of postoperative mortality for patients undergoing this procedure is essential for both healthcare performance monitoring and preoperative risk assessment. Risk-adjustment models for CRC patients often include patient and tumour characteristics, widely available in cancer registries and audits. The authors investigated to what extent inclusion of additional physiological and surgical measures, available through linkage or additional data collection, improves accuracy of risk models. METHODS Linked, routinely-collected data on patients undergoing emergency CRC surgery in England between December 2016 and November 2019 were used to develop a risk model for 90-day mortality. Backwards selection identified a 'selected model' of physiological and surgical measures in addition to patient and tumour characteristics. Model performance was assessed compared to a 'basic model' including only patient and tumour characteristics. Missing data was multiply imputed. RESULTS Eight hundred forty-six of 10 578 (8.0%) patients died within 90 days of surgery. The selected model included seven preoperative physiological and surgical measures (pulse rate, systolic blood pressure, breathlessness, sodium, urea, albumin, and predicted peritoneal soiling), in addition to the 10 patient and tumour characteristics in the basic model (calendar year of surgery, age, sex, ASA grade, TNM T stage, TNM N stage, TNM M stage, cancer site, number of comorbidities, and emergency admission). The selected model had considerably better discrimination compared to the basic model (C-statistic: 0.824 versus 0.783, respectively). CONCLUSION Linkage of disease-specific and treatment-specific datasets allowed the inclusion of physiological and surgical measures in a risk model alongside patient and tumour characteristics, which improves the accuracy of the prediction of the mortality risk for CRC patients having emergency surgery. This improvement will allow more accurate performance monitoring of healthcare providers and enhance clinical care planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Helen A. Blake
- Department of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
- Clinical Effectiveness Unit, Royal College of Surgeons of England
- Department of Applied Health Research, University College London
| | - Linda D. Sharples
- Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
| | - Jemma M. Boyle
- Clinical Effectiveness Unit, Royal College of Surgeons of England
| | - Angela Kuryba
- Clinical Effectiveness Unit, Royal College of Surgeons of England
| | - Suneetha R. Moonesinghe
- Department of Anaesthesia and Peri-operative Medicine, University College London Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust
| | - Dave Murray
- Anaesthetic Department, South Tees Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust
| | - James Hill
- Division of Surgery, Manchester Royal Infirmary
| | - Nicola S. Fearnhead
- Department of Colorectal Surgery, Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, UK
| | - Jan H. van der Meulen
- Department of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
- Clinical Effectiveness Unit, Royal College of Surgeons of England
| | - Kate Walker
- Department of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
- Clinical Effectiveness Unit, Royal College of Surgeons of England
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Matthews JNS, Bazakou S, Henderson R, Sharples LD. Contrasting principal stratum and hypothetical strategy estimands in multi-period crossover trials with incomplete data. Biometrics 2023; 79:1896-1907. [PMID: 36308035 DOI: 10.1111/biom.13777] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/06/2021] [Accepted: 10/05/2022] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Complete case analyses of complete crossover designs provide an opportunity to make comparisons based on patients who can tolerate all treatments. It is argued that this provides a means of estimating a principal stratum strategy estimand, something which is difficult to do in parallel group trials. While some trial users will consider this a relevant aim, others may be interested in hypothetical strategy estimands, that is, the effect that would be found if all patients completed the trial. Whether these estimands differ importantly is a question of interest to the different users of the trial results. This paper derives the difference between principal stratum strategy and hypothetical strategy estimands, where the former is estimated by a complete-case analysis of the crossover design, and a model for the dropout process is assumed. Complete crossover designs, that is, those where all treatments appear in all sequences, and which compare t treatments over p periods with respect to a continuous outcome are considered. Numerical results are presented for Williams designs with four and six periods. Results from a trial of obstructive sleep apnoea-hypopnoea (TOMADO) are also used for illustration. The results demonstrate that the percentage difference between the estimands is modest, exceeding 5% only when the trial has been severely affected by dropouts or if the within-subject correlation is low.
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Affiliation(s)
- John N S Matthews
- School of Mathematics, Statistics & Physics, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
- Public Health Sciences Institute, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
| | - Sofia Bazakou
- School of Mathematics, Statistics & Physics, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
| | - Robin Henderson
- School of Mathematics, Statistics & Physics, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
| | - Linda D Sharples
- Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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Gale CP, Stocken DD, Aktaa S, Reynolds C, Gilberts R, Brieger D, Carruthers K, Chew DP, Goodman SG, Fernandez C, Sharples LD, Yan AT, Fox K. Effectiveness of GRACE risk score in patients admitted to hospital with non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (UKGRIS): parallel group cluster randomised controlled trial. BMJ 2023; 381:e073843. [PMID: 37315959 PMCID: PMC10265221 DOI: 10.1136/bmj-2022-073843] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 05/10/2023] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To determine the effectiveness of risk stratification using the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score (GRS) for patients presenting to hospital with suspected non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome. DESIGN Parallel group cluster randomised controlled trial. SETTING Patients presenting with suspected non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome to 42 hospitals in England between 9 March 2017 and 30 December 2019. PARTICIPANTS Patients aged ≥18 years with a minimum follow-up of 12 months. INTERVENTION Hospitals were randomised (1:1) to patient management by standard care or according to the GRS and associated guidelines. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Primary outcome measures were use of guideline recommended management and time to the composite of cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, new onset heart failure hospital admission, and readmission for cardiovascular event. Secondary measures included the duration of hospital stay, EQ-5D-5L (five domain, five level version of the EuroQoL index), and the composite endpoint components. RESULTS 3050 participants (1440 GRS, 1610 standard care) were recruited in 38 UK clusters (20 GRS, 18 standard care). The mean age was 65.7 years (standard deviation 12), 69% were male, and the mean baseline GRACE scores were 119.5 (standard deviation 31.4) and 125.7 (34.4) for GRS and standard care, respectively. The uptake of guideline recommended processes was 77.3% for GRS and 75.3% for standard care (odds ratio 1.16, 95% confidence interval 0.70 to 1.92, P=0.56). The time to the first composite cardiac event was not significantly improved by the GRS (hazard ratio 0.89, 95% confidence interval 0.68 to 1.16, P=0.37). Baseline adjusted EQ-5D-5L utility at 12 months (difference -0.01, 95% confidence interval -0.06 to 0.04) and the duration of hospital admission within 12 months (mean 11.2 days, standard deviation 18 days v 11.8 days, 19 days) were similar for GRS and standard care. CONCLUSIONS In adults presenting to hospital with suspected non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome, the GRS did not improve adherence to guideline recommended management or reduce cardiovascular events at 12 months. TRIAL REGISTRATION ISRCTN 29731761.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chris P Gale
- Leeds Institute of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Medicine, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
- Leeds Institute for Data Analytics, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
- Department of Cardiology, Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust, Leeds, UK
| | - Deborah D Stocken
- Leeds Institute of Clinical Trials Research, University of Leeds, UK
| | - Suleman Aktaa
- Leeds Institute of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Medicine, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
- Leeds Institute for Data Analytics, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
- Department of Cardiology, Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust, Leeds, UK
| | - Catherine Reynolds
- Leeds Institute of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Medicine, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
- Leeds Institute of Clinical Trials Research, University of Leeds, UK
| | - Rachael Gilberts
- Leeds Institute of Clinical Trials Research, University of Leeds, UK
| | - David Brieger
- Cardiology Department, Concord Repatriation General Hospital, Sydney, Australia
| | - Kathryn Carruthers
- Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Derek P Chew
- College of Medicine and Public Health of Medicine, Flinders University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Shaun G Goodman
- Canadian VIGOUR Centre, Department of Medicine, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada
| | | | - Linda D Sharples
- Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Andrew T Yan
- St Michael's Hospital, Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Keith Fox
- Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
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Nashef SAM, Sharples LD. Reply to García-Villarreal et al. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg 2022; 63:6965025. [PMID: 36579864 DOI: 10.1093/ejcts/ezac586] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/27/2022] [Revised: 12/21/2023] [Accepted: 12/28/2022] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
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Tanner KT, Daniel RM, Bilton D, Simmonds NJ, Sharples LD, Keogh RH. Mediation of the total effect of cystic fibrosis-related diabetes on mortality: A UK Cystic Fibrosis Registry cohort study. Diabet Med 2022; 39:e14958. [PMID: 36075586 PMCID: PMC9826418 DOI: 10.1111/dme.14958] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/05/2022] [Revised: 08/12/2022] [Accepted: 09/07/2022] [Indexed: 01/11/2023]
Abstract
AIM To investigate whether the effect of cystic fibrosis-related diabetes (CFRD) on the composite outcome of mortality or transplant could act through lung function, pulmonary exacerbations and/or nutritional status. METHODS A retrospective cohort of adult cystic fibrosis (CF) patients who had not been diagnosed with CFRD were identified from the UK Cystic Fibrosis Registry (n = 2750). Rate of death or transplant was compared between patients who did and did not develop CFRD (with insulin use) during follow-up using Poisson regression, separately by sex. Causal mediation methods were used to investigate whether lung function, pulmonary exacerbations and nutritional status lie on the causal pathway between insulin-treated CFRD and mortality/transplant. RESULTS At all ages, the mortality/transplant rate was higher in both men and women diagnosed with CFRD. Pulmonary exacerbations were the strongest mediator of the effect of CFRD on mortality/transplant, with an estimated 15% [95% CI: 7%, 28%] of the effect at 2 years post-CFRD diagnosis attributed to exacerbations, growing to 24% [95% CI: 9%, 46%] at 4 years post-diagnosis. Neither lung function nor nutritional status were found to be significant mediators of this effect. Estimates were similar but with wider confidence intervals in a cohort that additionally included people with CFRD but not using insulin. CONCLUSION There is evidence that pulmonary exacerbations mediate the effect of CFRD on mortality but, as they are estimated to mediate less than one-quarter of the total effect, the mechanism through which CFRD influences survival may involve other factors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kamaryn T. Tanner
- Department of Medical StatisticsThe London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineLondonUK
| | | | - Diana Bilton
- Imperial College London, Faculty of MedicineNational Heart and Lung InstituteLondonUK
- Royal Brompton HospitalLondonUK
| | - Nicholas J. Simmonds
- Imperial College London, Faculty of MedicineNational Heart and Lung InstituteLondonUK
- Royal Brompton HospitalLondonUK
| | - Linda D. Sharples
- Department of Medical StatisticsThe London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineLondonUK
| | - Ruth H. Keogh
- Department of Medical StatisticsThe London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineLondonUK
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6
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Sehjal J, Sharples LD, Keogh RH, Walker K, Prachalias A, Heaton N, Ivanics T, van der Meulen J, Wallace D. Time-varying Comparison of All-cause Mortality After Liver Transplantation Between Recipients With and Without Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Population-based Cohort Study Using the United Kingdom Liver Transplant Registry. Transplantation 2022; 106:e464-e475. [PMID: 36017919 PMCID: PMC9592162 DOI: 10.1097/tp.0000000000004282] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Accurately identifying time-varying differences in the hazard of all-cause mortality after liver transplantation (LT) between recipients with and without hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may inform patient selection and organ allocation policies as well as post-LT surveillance protocols. METHODS A UK population-based study was carried out using 9586 LT recipients. The time-varying association between HCC and post-LT all-cause mortality was estimated using an adjusted flexible parametric model (FPM) and expressed as hazard ratios (HRs). Differences in this association by transplant year were then investigated. Non-cancer-specific mortality was compared between HCC and non-HCC recipients using an adjusted subdistribution hazard model. RESULTS The HR comparing HCC recipients with non-HCC recipients was below one immediately after LT (1-mo HR = 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59-0.99; P = 0.044). The HR then increased sharply to a maximum at 1.3 y (HR = 2.07; 95% CI, 1.70-2.52; P < 0.001) before decreasing. The hazard of death was significantly higher in HCC recipients than in non-HCC recipients between 4 mo and 7.4 y post-LT. There were no notable differences in the association between HCC and the post-LT hazard of death by transplant year. The estimated non-cancer-specific subdistribution HR for HCC was 0.93 (95% CI, 0.80-1.09; P = 0.390) and not found to vary over time. CONCLUSIONS FPMs can provide a more precise comparison of post-LT hazards of mortality between HCC and non-HCC patients. The results provide further evidence that some HCC patients have extra-hepatic spread at the time of LT, which has implications for optimal post-LT surveillance protocols.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jyoti Sehjal
- Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Linda D. Sharples
- Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Ruth H. Keogh
- Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Kate Walker
- Department of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Andreas Prachalias
- Institute of Liver Studies, King’s College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, London, United Kingdom
| | - Nigel Heaton
- Institute of Liver Studies, King’s College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, London, United Kingdom
| | - Tommy Ivanics
- Division of General Surgery, Multi-organ Transplant Program, University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Department of Surgery, Henry Ford Hospital, Detroit, MI
- Department of Surgical Sciences, Akademiska Sjukhuset, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Jan van der Meulen
- Department of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - David Wallace
- Department of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Institute of Liver Studies, King’s College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, London, United Kingdom
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Li SJ, Seedher T, Sharples LD, Benton SC, Mathews C, Gabe R, Sasieni P, Duffy SW. Impact of changes to the interscreening interval and faecal immunochemical test threshold in the national bowel cancer screening programme in England: results from the FIT pilot study. Br J Cancer 2022; 127:1525-1533. [PMID: 35974099 PMCID: PMC9553931 DOI: 10.1038/s41416-022-01919-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2021] [Revised: 06/23/2022] [Accepted: 07/12/2022] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The NHS Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (BCSP) faces endoscopy capacity challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic and plans to lower the screening starting age. This may necessitate modifying the interscreening interval or threshold. METHODS We analysed data from the English Faecal Immunochemical Testing (FIT) pilot, comprising 27,238 individuals aged 59-75, screened for colorectal cancer (CRC) using FIT. We estimated screening sensitivity to CRC, adenomas, advanced adenomas (AA) and mean sojourn time of each pathology by faecal haemoglobin (f-Hb) thresholds, then predicted the detection of these abnormalities by interscreening interval and f-Hb threshold. RESULTS Current 2-yearly screening with a f-Hb threshold of 120 μg/g was estimated to generate 16,092 colonoscopies, prevent 186 CRCs, detect 1142 CRCs, 7086 adenomas and 4259 AAs per 100,000 screened over 15 years. A higher threshold at 180 μg/g would reduce required colonoscopies to 11,500, prevent 131 CRCs, detect 1077 CRCs, 4961 adenomas and 3184 AAs. A longer interscreening interval of 3 years would reduce required colonoscopies to 10,283, prevent 126 and detect 909 CRCs, 4796 adenomas and 2986 AAs. CONCLUSION Increasing the f-Hb threshold was estimated to be more efficient than increasing the interscreening interval regarding overall colonoscopies per screen-benefited cancer. Increasing the interval was more efficient regarding colonoscopies per cancer prevented.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shuping J Li
- Wolfson Institute of Population Health, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK.
| | - Tara Seedher
- Wolfson Institute of Population Health, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK
| | - Linda D Sharples
- Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Sally C Benton
- NHS Bowel Cancer Screening Programme, Southern Hub, Royal County Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Guildford, Surrey, UK
| | - Christopher Mathews
- School of Cancer and Pharmaceutical Sciences, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Rhian Gabe
- Wolfson Institute of Population Health, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK
| | - Peter Sasieni
- School of Cancer and Pharmaceutical Sciences, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Stephen W Duffy
- Wolfson Institute of Population Health, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK
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Tanner KT, Sharples LD, Daniel RM, Keogh RH. Methods of analysis for survival outcomes with time-updated mediators, with application to longitudinal disease registry data. Stat Methods Med Res 2022; 31:1959-1975. [PMID: 35711168 PMCID: PMC9523823 DOI: 10.1177/09622802221107104] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Mediation analysis is a useful tool to illuminate the mechanisms through which an exposure affects an outcome but statistical challenges exist with time-to-event outcomes and longitudinal observational data. Natural direct and indirect effects cannot be identified when there are exposure-induced confounders of the mediator-outcome relationship. Previous measurements of a repeatedly-measured mediator may themselves confound the relationship between the mediator and the outcome. To overcome these obstacles, two recent methods have been proposed, one based on path-specific effects and one based on an additive hazards model and the concept of exposure splitting. We investigate these techniques, focusing on their application to observational datasets. We apply both methods to an analysis of the UK Cystic Fibrosis Registry dataset to identify how much of the relationship between onset of cystic fibrosis-related diabetes and subsequent survival acts through pulmonary function. Statistical properties of the methods are investigated using simulation. Both methods produce unbiased estimates of indirect and direct effects in scenarios consistent with their stated assumptions but, if the data are measured infrequently, estimates may be biased. Findings are used to highlight considerations in the interpretation of the observational data analysis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kamaryn T Tanner
- Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK
- Kamaryn T Tanner, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Dept of Medical Statistics, London WC1E 7HT, UK.
| | - Linda D Sharples
- Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK
| | | | - Ruth H Keogh
- Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK
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Blake HA, Sharples LD, Harron K, van der Meulen JH, Walker K. Linkage of multiple electronic health record datasets using a 'spine linkage' approach compared with all 'pairwise linkages'. Int J Epidemiol 2022; 52:214-226. [PMID: 35748342 PMCID: PMC9908066 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyac130] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2022] [Accepted: 06/13/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Methods for linking records between two datasets are well established. However, guidance is needed for linking more than two datasets. Using all 'pairwise linkages'-linking each dataset to every other dataset-is the most inclusive, but resource-intensive, approach. The 'spine' approach links each dataset to a designated 'spine dataset', reducing the number of linkages, but potentially reducing linkage quality. METHODS We compared the pairwise and spine linkage approaches using real-world data on patients undergoing emergency bowel cancer surgery between 31 October 2013 and 30 April 2018. We linked an administrative hospital dataset (Hospital Episode Statistics; HES) capturing patients admitted to hospitals in England, and two clinical datasets comprising patients diagnosed with bowel cancer and patients undergoing emergency bowel surgery. RESULTS The spine linkage approach, with HES as the spine dataset, created an analysis cohort of 15 826 patients, equating to 98.3% of the 16 100 patients identified using the pairwise linkage approach. There were no systematic differences in patient characteristics between these analysis cohorts. Associations of patient and tumour characteristics with mortality, complications and length of stay were not sensitive to the linkage approach. When eligibility criteria were applied before linkage, spine linkage included 14 509 patients (90.0% compared with pairwise linkage). CONCLUSION Spine linkage can be used as an efficient alternative to pairwise linkage if case ascertainment in the spine dataset and data quality of linkage variables are high. These aspects should be systematically evaluated in the nominated spine dataset before spine linkage is used to create the analysis cohort.
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Affiliation(s)
- Helen A Blake
- Corresponding author. Department of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15–17 Tavistock Place, London, WC1H 9SH, UK. E-mail:
| | - Linda D Sharples
- Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Katie Harron
- Population, Policy & Practice Department, University College London (UCL) Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health, UCL, London, UK
| | - Jan H van der Meulen
- Department of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK,Clinical Effectiveness Unit, Royal College of Surgeons of England, London, UK
| | - Kate Walker
- Department of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK,Clinical Effectiveness Unit, Royal College of Surgeons of England, London, UK
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Sharples LD, Mills C, Chiu YD, Fynn S, Holcombe HM, Nashef SAM. Five-year results of Amaze: a randomized controlled trial of adjunct surgery for atrial fibrillation. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg 2022; 62:6554407. [PMID: 35348642 PMCID: PMC9615434 DOI: 10.1093/ejcts/ezac181] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2021] [Revised: 03/04/2022] [Accepted: 03/23/2022] [Indexed: 01/11/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The Amaze trial showed that adding atrial fibrillation (AF) surgery to cardiac operations increased return to sinus rhythm (SR) without impact on quality of life or survival at 2 years. We report outcomes to 5 years. METHODS In a multicentre, phase III, pragmatic, double-blind, randomized controlled superiority trial, cardiac surgery patients with >3 months of AF were randomized 1:1 to adjunct AF surgery or control. Primary outcomes of 1-year SR restoration and 2-year quality-adjusted survival were already reported. This study reports on rhythm, survival, quality-adjusted survival, stroke, medication and safety to 5 years. RESULTS Between 2009 and 2014, 352 patients were randomized. By 5 years 79 died, 58 withdrew, 34 were lost to follow-up and the remaining 182 provided data. AF surgery significantly increased the odds of remaining in SR at 5 years {odds ratio = 2.98 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.23, 7.17], P = 0.015}. There was a non-significant decrease in stroke incidence [odds ratio = 0.605 (95% CI 0.284, 1.287), P = 0.19], but no improved survival [5-year survival: AF surgery 77.3% (95% CI 71.1%, 83.5%), controls 77.8% (95% CI 71.7%, 84.0%), P = 0.85]. Quality-adjusted survival difference was negligible (-0.03; 95% CI -0.33, 0.27, P = 0.85). The composite of survival free of stroke and AF was better in the AF surgery group [odds ratio = 2.34 (95% CI 1.03, 5.31)]. There were no other differences. CONCLUSIONS Adjunct AF surgery confers a higher rate of SR to 5 years and a better composite outcome of survival free of stroke and AF but has no impact on overall or quality-adjusted survival or other clinical outcomes. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER ISRCTN82731440.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | - Samer A M Nashef
- Royal Papworth Hospital, Cambridge, UK, Corresponding author. Royal Papworth Hospital, Cambridge, CB2 0AY, UK. Tel: +44-1223-639077; e-mail: (S.A.M. Nashef)
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Bojke L, Soares MO, Claxton K, Colson A, Fox A, Jackson C, Jankovic D, Morton A, Sharples LD, Taylor A. Reference Case Methods for Expert Elicitation in Health Care Decision Making. Med Decis Making 2022; 42:182-193. [PMID: 34271832 PMCID: PMC8777312 DOI: 10.1177/0272989x211028236] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2020] [Accepted: 05/26/2021] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The evidence used to inform health care decision making (HCDM) is typically uncertain. In these situations, the experience of experts is essential to help decision makers reach a decision. Structured expert elicitation (referred to as elicitation) is a quantitative process to capture experts' beliefs. There is heterogeneity in the existing elicitation methodology used in HCDM, and it is not clear if existing guidelines are appropriate for use in this context. In this article, we seek to establish reference case methods for elicitation to inform HCDM. METHODS We collated the methods available for elicitation using reviews and critique. In addition, we conducted controlled experiments to test the accuracy of alternative methods. We determined the suitability of the methods choices for use in HCDM according to a predefined set of principles for elicitation in HCDM, which we have also generated. We determined reference case methods for elicitation in HCDM for health technology assessment (HTA). RESULTS In almost all methods choices available for elicitation, we found a lack of empirical evidence supporting recommendations. Despite this, it is possible to define reference case methods for HTA. The reference methods include a focus on gathering experts with substantive knowledge of the quantities being elicited as opposed to those trained in probability and statistics, eliciting quantities that the expert might observe directly, and individual elicitation of beliefs, rather than solely consensus methods. It is likely that there are additional considerations for decision makers in health care outside of HTA. CONCLUSIONS The reference case developed here allows the use of different methods, depending on the decision-making setting. Further applied examples of elicitation methods would be useful. Experimental evidence comparing methods should be generated.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laura Bojke
- Centre for Health Economics, University of
York, York, UK
| | | | - Karl Claxton
- Centre for Health Economics, University of
York, York, UK
| | - Abigail Colson
- The Department of Management Science,
University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK
| | - Aimée Fox
- Centre for Health Economics, University of
York, York, UK
| | - Chris Jackson
- MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of
Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Dina Jankovic
- Centre for Health Economics, University of
York, York, UK
| | - Alec Morton
- The Department of Management Science,
University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK
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12
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Li SJ, Sharples LD, Benton SC, Blyuss O, Mathews C, Sasieni P, Duffy SW. Faecal immunochemical testing in bowel cancer screening: Estimating outcomes for different diagnostic policies. J Med Screen 2021; 28:277-285. [PMID: 33342370 PMCID: PMC8366184 DOI: 10.1177/0969141320980501] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/08/2020] [Revised: 10/28/2020] [Accepted: 11/13/2020] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The National Health Service Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (NHS BCSP) in England has replaced guaiac faecal occult blood testing by faecal immunochemical testing (FIT). There is interest in fully exploiting FIT measures to improve bowel cancer (CRC) screening strategies. In this paper, we estimate the relationship of the quantitative haemoglobin concentration provided by FIT in faecal samples with underlying pathology. From this we estimate thresholds required for given levels of sensitivity to CRC and high-risk adenomas (HRA). METHODS Data were collected from a pilot study of FIT in England in 2014, in which 27,238 participants completed a FIT. Those with a faecal haemoglobin concentration (f-Hb) of at least 20 µg/g were referred for further investigation, usually colonoscopy. Truncated regression models were used to explore the relationship between bowel pathology and FIT results. Regression results were applied to estimate sensitivity to different abnormalities for a number of thresholds. RESULTS Participants with CRC and HRA had significantly higher f-Hb, and this remained unchanged after adjusting for age and sex. While a threshold of 20 μg/g was estimated to capture 82.2% of CRC and 64.0% of HRA, this would refer 7.8% of participants for colonoscopy. The current programme threshold used in England of 120 μg/g was estimated to identify 47.8% of CRC and 25.0% of HRA. CONCLUSIONS Under the current diagnostic policy of dichotomising FIT results, a very low threshold would be required to achieve high sensitivity to CRC and HRA, which would place further strain on colonoscopy resources. The NHS BCSP in England might benefit from a diagnostic policy that makes greater use of the quantitative nature of FIT.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shuping J Li
- Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK
| | - Linda D Sharples
- Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Sally C Benton
- NHS Bowel Cancer Screening Programme, Royal County Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Guildford, Surrey, UK
| | - Oleg Blyuss
- School of Physics, Astronomy and Mathematics, University of Hertfordshire, Hertfordshire, UK
- Department of Paediatrics and Paediatric Infectious Diseases, Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russia
| | - Christopher Mathews
- School of Cancer and Pharmaceutical Sciences, King’s College London, London, UK
| | - Peter Sasieni
- School of Cancer and Pharmaceutical Sciences, King’s College London, London, UK
| | - Stephen W Duffy
- Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK
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13
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Edgar K, Jackson D, Rhodes K, Duffy T, Burman CF, Sharples LD. Frequentist rules for regulatory approval of subgroups in phase III trials: A fresh look at an old problem. Stat Methods Med Res 2021; 30:1725-1743. [PMID: 34077288 PMCID: PMC8411475 DOI: 10.1177/09622802211017574] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
Background The number of Phase III trials that include a biomarker in design and
analysis has increased due to interest in personalised medicine. For genetic
mutations and other predictive biomarkers, the trial sample comprises two
subgroups, one of which, say B+ is known or suspected to achieve a larger treatment effect
than the other B−. Despite treatment effect heterogeneity, trials often draw
patients from both subgroups, since the lower responding B− subgroup may also gain benefit from the intervention. In
this case, regulators/commissioners must decide what constitutes sufficient
evidence to approve the drug in the B− population. Methods and Results Assuming trial analysis can be completed using generalised linear models, we
define and evaluate three frequentist decision rules for approval. For rule
one, the significance of the average treatment effect in B− should exceed a pre-defined minimum value, say
ZB−>L. For rule two, the data from the low-responding group
B− should increase statistical significance. For rule three,
the subgroup-treatment interaction should be non-significant, using type I
error chosen to ensure that estimated difference between the two subgroup
effects is acceptable. Rules are evaluated based on conditional power, given
that there is an overall significant treatment effect. We show how different
rules perform according to the distribution of patients across the two
subgroups and when analyses include additional (stratification) covariates
in the analysis, thereby conferring correlation between subgroup
effects. Conclusions When additional conditions are required for approval of a new treatment in a
lower response subgroup, easily applied rules based on minimum effect sizes
and relaxed interaction tests are available. Choice of rule is influenced by
the proportion of patients sampled from the two subgroups but less so by the
correlation between subgroup effects.
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Affiliation(s)
- K Edgar
- Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - D Jackson
- Statistical Innovation, Oncology R&D, AstraZeneca, AstraZeneca, Cambridge, UK
| | - K Rhodes
- Statistical Innovation, Oncology R&D, AstraZeneca, AstraZeneca, Cambridge, UK
| | - T Duffy
- Statistical Innovation, BioPharmaceutical R&D, AstraZeneca, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - C-F Burman
- Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK
| | - L D Sharples
- Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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14
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Blake HA, Sharples LD, Harron K, van der Meulen JH, Walker K. Probabilistic linkage without personal information successfully linked national clinical datasets. J Clin Epidemiol 2021; 136:136-145. [PMID: 33932483 PMCID: PMC8443839 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2021.04.015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2021] [Revised: 04/20/2021] [Accepted: 04/22/2021] [Indexed: 01/03/2023]
Abstract
Background Probabilistic linkage can link patients from different clinical databases without the need for personal information. If accurate linkage can be achieved, it would accelerate the use of linked datasets to address important clinical and public health questions. Objective We developed a step-by-step process for probabilistic linkage of national clinical and administrative datasets without personal information, and validated it against deterministic linkage using patient identifiers. Study Design and Setting We used electronic health records from the National Bowel Cancer Audit and Hospital Episode Statistics databases for 10,566 bowel cancer patients undergoing emergency surgery in the English National Health Service. Results Probabilistic linkage linked 81.4% of National Bowel Cancer Audit records to Hospital Episode Statistics, vs. 82.8% using deterministic linkage. No systematic differences were seen between patients that were and were not linked, and regression models for mortality and length of hospital stay according to patient and tumour characteristics were not sensitive to the linkage approach. Conclusion Probabilistic linkage was successful in linking national clinical and administrative datasets for patients undergoing a major surgical procedure. It allows analysts outside highly secure data environments to undertake linkage while minimizing costs and delays, protecting data security, and maintaining linkage quality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Helen A Blake
- Department of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London, WC1H 9SH, UK; Clinical Effectiveness Unit, Royal College of Surgeons of England, London WC2A 3PE, UK
| | - Linda D Sharples
- Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT, UK
| | - Katie Harron
- UCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health, 30 Guilford Street, London, WC1N 1EH
| | - Jan H van der Meulen
- Department of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London, WC1H 9SH, UK; Clinical Effectiveness Unit, Royal College of Surgeons of England, London WC2A 3PE, UK
| | - Kate Walker
- Department of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London, WC1H 9SH, UK; Clinical Effectiveness Unit, Royal College of Surgeons of England, London WC2A 3PE, UK
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15
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Cowling TE, Cromwell DA, Sharples LD, van der Meulen J. A novel approach selected small sets of diagnosis codes with high prediction performance in large healthcare datasets. J Clin Epidemiol 2020; 128:20-28. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2020.08.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/15/2020] [Revised: 07/15/2020] [Accepted: 08/05/2020] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
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16
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Cowling TE, Bellot A, Boyle J, Walker K, Kuryba A, Galbraith S, Aggarwal A, Braun M, Sharples LD, van der Meulen J. One-year mortality of colorectal cancer patients: development and validation of a prediction model using linked national electronic data. Br J Cancer 2020; 123:1474-1480. [PMID: 32830202 PMCID: PMC7652941 DOI: 10.1038/s41416-020-01034-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/01/2020] [Revised: 07/29/2020] [Accepted: 08/06/2020] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The existing literature does not provide a prediction model for mortality of all colorectal cancer patients using contemporary national hospital data. We developed and validated such a model to predict colorectal cancer death within 90, 180 and 365 days after diagnosis. Methods Cohort study using linked national cancer and death records. The development population included 27,480 patients diagnosed in England in 2015. The test populations were diagnosed in England in 2016 (n = 26,411) and Wales in 2015–2016 (n = 3814). Predictors were age, gender, socioeconomic status, referral source, performance status, tumour site, TNM stage and treatment intent. Cox regression models were assessed using Brier scores, c-indices and calibration plots. Results In the development population, 7.4, 11.7 and 17.9% of patients died from colorectal cancer within 90, 180 and 365 days after diagnosis. T4 versus T1 tumour stage had the largest adjusted association with the outcome (HR 4.67; 95% CI: 3.59–6.09). C-indices were 0.873–0.890 (England) and 0.856–0.873 (Wales) in the test populations, indicating excellent separation of predicted risks by outcome status. Models were generally well calibrated. Conclusions The model was valid for predicting short-term colorectal cancer mortality. It can provide personalised information to support clinical practice and research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas E Cowling
- Clinical Effectiveness Unit, Royal College of Surgeons of England, London, UK. .,Department of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
| | - Alexis Bellot
- Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.,Alan Turing Institute, London, UK
| | - Jemma Boyle
- Clinical Effectiveness Unit, Royal College of Surgeons of England, London, UK.,Department of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Kate Walker
- Clinical Effectiveness Unit, Royal College of Surgeons of England, London, UK.,Department of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Angela Kuryba
- Clinical Effectiveness Unit, Royal College of Surgeons of England, London, UK
| | - Sarah Galbraith
- Department of Palliative Care, Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Cambridge, UK
| | - Ajay Aggarwal
- Department of Clinical Oncology, Guy's Hospital, Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK
| | - Michael Braun
- Department of Medical Oncology, The Christie NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK
| | - Linda D Sharples
- Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Jan van der Meulen
- Clinical Effectiveness Unit, Royal College of Surgeons of England, London, UK.,Department of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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17
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Everett CC, Reynolds C, Fernandez C, Stocken DD, Sharples LD, Sathyapalan T, Heller S, Storey RF, Ajjan RA. Rationale and design of the LIBERATES trial: Protocol for a randomised controlled trial of flash glucose monitoring for optimisation of glycaemia in individuals with type 2 diabetes and recent myocardial infarction. Diab Vasc Dis Res 2020; 17:1479164120957934. [PMID: 33081502 PMCID: PMC7919208 DOI: 10.1177/1479164120957934] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Hyperglycaemia in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and myocardial infarction (MI) is associated with guarded clinical prognosis. Studies improving glucose levels in T2D following MI relied on HbA1c as the main glycaemic marker, failing to address potential adverse effects of hypoglycaemia and glucose variability. We describe the design of the LIBERATES trial that investigates the role of flash glucose monitoring in optimising glycaemic markers in high vascular risk individuals with T2D. This multicentre trial is designed to recruit up to 150 insulin and/or sulphonylurea-treated T2D patients, within 5 days of a proven MI. Individuals will be randomised 1:1 into intervention and control groups using flash glucose monitoring sensors and traditional self-monitoring of blood glucose, respectively. The control group will also wear a blinded continuous glucose monitoring sensor. The primary outcome is the difference in time spent in euglycaemia (defined as glucose levels between 3.9-10.0 mmol/l), comparing study groups 3 months following recruitment, assessed daily for 14 days and as an average. Secondary and exploratory end points include time spent in hypoglycaemia and hyperglycaemia, HbA1c, quality of life measures, major adverse cardiac events and cost-effectiveness of the intervention. This study will establish the role of flash glucose monitoring in glycaemic management of individuals with T2D sustaining a cardiac event.(Trial Registration: ISRCTN14974233, registered 12th June 2017).
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Affiliation(s)
- Colin C Everett
- Clinical Trials Research Unit, University of Leeds, Leeds, West Yorkshire, UK
| | - Catherine Reynolds
- Clinical Trials Research Unit, University of Leeds, Leeds, West Yorkshire, UK
| | - Catherine Fernandez
- Clinical Trials Research Unit, University of Leeds, Leeds, West Yorkshire, UK
| | - Deborah D Stocken
- Clinical Trials Research Unit, University of Leeds, Leeds, West Yorkshire, UK
| | - Linda D Sharples
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, University of London, Bloomsbury, London, UK
| | | | - Simon Heller
- Department of Oncology and Metabolism, Sheffield Teaching Hospitals Trust, Sheffield, South Yorkshire, UK
| | - Robert F Storey
- Department of Infection, Immunity and Cardiovascular Disease, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, South Yorkshire, UK
| | - Ramzi A Ajjan
- Leeds Institute for Cardiovascular and Metabolic Medicine, University of Leeds, Leeds, West Yorkshire, UK
- Department of Diabetes and Endocirnology, Leeds Teaching Hospitals Trust, Leeds, West Yorkshire, UK
- Ramzi A Ajjan, Leeds Institute for Cardiovascular and Metabolic Medicine, University of Leeds, The LIGHT Laboratories, Clarendon Way, Leeds, West Yorkshire LS2 9JT, UK.
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18
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Matthews C, Freeman C, Sharples LD, Fox-Rushby J, Tod A, Maskell NA, Edwards JG, Coonar AS, Sivasothy P, Hughes V, Rahman NM, Waller DA, Rintoul RC. MesoTRAP: a feasibility study that includes a pilot clinical trial comparing video-assisted thoracoscopic partial pleurectomy decortication with indwelling pleural catheter in patients with trapped lung due to malignant pleural mesothelioma designed to address recruitment and randomisation uncertainties and sample size requirements for a phase III trial. BMJ Open Respir Res 2019; 6:e000368. [PMID: 30687504 PMCID: PMC6326291 DOI: 10.1136/bmjresp-2018-000368] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/08/2018] [Accepted: 10/15/2018] [Indexed: 12/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction One of the most debilitating symptoms of malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is dyspnoea caused by pleural effusion. MPM can be complicated by the presence of tumour on the visceral pleura preventing the lung from re-expanding, known as trapped lung (TL). There is currently no consensus on the best way to manage TL. One approach is insertion of an indwelling pleural catheter (IPC) under local anaesthesia. Another is video-assisted thoracoscopic partial pleurectomy/decortication (VAT-PD). Performed under general anaesthesia, VAT-PD permits surgical removal of the rind of tumour from the visceral pleura thereby allowing the lung to fully re-expand. Methods and analysis MesoTRAP is a feasibility study that includes a pilot multicentre, randomised controlled clinical trial comparing VAT-PD with IPC in patients with TL and pleural effusion due to MPM. The primary objective is to measure the SD of visual analogue scale scores for dyspnoea following randomisation and examine the patterns of change over time in each treatment group. Secondary objectives include documenting survival and adverse events, estimating the incidence and prevalence of TL in patients with MPM, examining completion of alternative forms of data capture for economic evaluation and determining the ability to randomise 38 patients in 18 months. Ethics and dissemination This study was approved by the East of England-Cambridge Central Research Ethics Committee and the Health Research Authority (reference number 16/EE/0370). We aim to publish the outputs of this work in international peer-reviewed journals compliant with an Open Access policy. Trial registration NCT03412357.
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Affiliation(s)
- Claire Matthews
- Papworth Trials Unit Collaboration, Royal Papworth Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Cambridge, UK
| | - Carol Freeman
- Papworth Trials Unit Collaboration, Royal Papworth Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Cambridge, UK
| | - Linda D Sharples
- Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Julia Fox-Rushby
- Department of Primary Care and Public Health Sciences, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Angela Tod
- School of Nursing and Midwifery, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | | | - John G Edwards
- Department of Thoracic Surgery, Sheffield Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Sheffield, UK
| | - Aman S Coonar
- Department of Thoracic Surgery, Royal Papworth Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Cambridge, UK
| | | | - Victoria Hughes
- Papworth Trials Unit Collaboration, Royal Papworth Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Cambridge, UK
| | - Najib M Rahman
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - David A Waller
- Department of Thoracic Surgery, St Bartholomew's Hospital, London, UK
| | - Robert Campbell Rintoul
- Papworth Trials Unit Collaboration, Royal Papworth Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Cambridge, UK.,Department of Oncology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
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19
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Nair SK, Sudarshan CD, Thorpe BS, Singh J, Pillay T, Catarino P, Valchanov K, Codispoti M, Dunning J, Abu-Omar Y, Moorjani N, Matthews C, Freeman CJ, Fox-Rushby JA, Sharples LD. Mini-Stern Trial: A randomized trial comparing mini-sternotomy to full median sternotomy for aortic valve replacement. J Thorac Cardiovasc Surg 2018; 156:2124-2132.e31. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jtcvs.2018.05.057] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/17/2017] [Revised: 04/23/2018] [Accepted: 05/15/2018] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
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20
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Papachristofi O, Klein AA, Mackay J, Nashef S, Fletcher NS, Sharples LD. Does the "Weekend Effect" for Postoperative Mortality Stand Up to Scrutiny? Association for Cardiothoracic Anesthesia and Critical Care Cohort Study of 110,728 Cardiac Surgical Patients. J Cardiothorac Vasc Anesth 2018; 32:2178-2186. [PMID: 29753669 DOI: 10.1053/j.jvca.2018.04.015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/11/2018] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Ongoing debate focuses on whether patients admitted to the hospital on weekends have higher mortality than those admitted on weekdays. Whether this apparent "weekend effect" reflects differing patient risk, care quality differences, or inadequate adjustment for risk during analysis remains unclear. This study aimed to examine the existence of a "weekend effect" for risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality after cardiac surgery. DESIGN Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected cardiac registry data. SETTING Ten UK specialist cardiac centers. PARTICIPANTS A total of 110,728 cases, undertaken by 127 consultant surgeons and 190 consultant anesthetists between April 2002 and March 2012. INTERVENTIONS Major risk-stratified cardiac surgical operations. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS Crude in-hospital mortality rate was 3.1%. Multilevel multivariable models were employed to estimate the effect of operative day on in-hospital mortality, adjusting for center, surgeon, anesthetist, patient risk, and procedure priority. Weekend elective cases had significantly lower mortality risk compared to Monday elective cases (odds ratio [OR] 0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.42, 0.96) following risk adjustment by the logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) and procedure priority; differences between weekend and Monday for urgent and emergency/salvage cases were not significant (OR 1.12, 95% CI 0.73, 1.72, and 1.07, 95% CI 0.79, 1.45 respectively). Considering only the logistic EuroSCORE but not procedure priority yielded 29% higher odds of death for weekend cases compared to Monday operations (OR 1.29, 95% CI 1.08, 1.54). CONCLUSIONS This study suggests that undergoing cardiac surgery during the weekend does not affect negatively patient survival, and highlights the importance of comprehensive risk adjustment to avoid detecting spurious "weekend effects."
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Affiliation(s)
- Olympia Papachristofi
- Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
| | - Andrew A Klein
- Department of Anaesthesia and Intensive Care, Papworth Hospital, Cambridge, UK
| | - John Mackay
- Department of Anaesthesia and Intensive Care, Papworth Hospital, Cambridge, UK
| | - Samer Nashef
- Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Papworth Hospital, Cambridge, UK
| | - Nick S Fletcher
- Department of Anaesthesia and Intensive Care, St George's Hospital, London, UK
| | - Linda D Sharples
- Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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21
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Nashef SAM, Fynn S, Abu-Omar Y, Spyt TJ, Mills C, Everett CC, Fox-Rushby J, Singh J, Dalrymple-Hay M, Sudarshan C, Codispoti M, Braidley P, Wells FC, Sharples LD. Amaze: a randomized controlled trial of adjunct surgery for atrial fibrillation. Eur J Cardiothorac Surg 2018; 54:729-737. [PMID: 29672731 PMCID: PMC6134441 DOI: 10.1093/ejcts/ezy165] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/12/2018] [Revised: 03/01/2018] [Accepted: 03/12/2018] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Atrial fibrillation (AF) reduces survival and quality of life (QoL). It can be treated at the time of major cardiac surgery using ablation procedures ranging from simple pulmonary vein isolation to a full maze procedure. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of adjunct AF surgery as currently performed on sinus rhythm (SR) restoration, survival, QoL and cost-effectiveness. METHODS In a multicentre, Phase III, pragmatic, double-blinded, parallel-armed randomized controlled trial, 352 cardiac surgery patients with >3 months of documented AF were randomized to surgery with or without adjunct maze or similar AF ablation between 2009 and 2014. Primary outcomes were SR restoration at 1 year and quality-adjusted life years at 2 years. Secondary outcomes included SR at 2 years, overall and stroke-free survival, medication, QoL, cost-effectiveness and safety. RESULTS More ablation patients were in SR at 1 year [odds ratio (OR) 2.06, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20-3.54; P = 0.009]. At 2 years, the OR increased to 3.24 (95% CI 1.76-5.96). Quality-adjusted life years were similar at 2 years (ablation - control -0.025, P = 0.6319). Significantly fewer ablation patients were anticoagulated from 6 months postoperatively. Stroke rates were 5.7% (ablation) and 9.1% (control) (P = 0.3083). There was no significant difference in stroke-free survival [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.99, 95% CI 0.64-1.53; P = 0.949] nor in serious adverse events, operative or overall survival, cardioversion, pacemaker implantation, New York Heart Association, EQ-5D-3L and SF-36. The mean additional ablation cost per patient was £3533 (95% CI £1321-£5746). Cost-effectiveness was not demonstrated at 2 years. CONCLUSIONS Adjunct AF surgery is safe and increases SR restoration and costs but not survival or QoL up to 2 years. A continued follow-up will provide information on these outcomes in the longer term. Study registration ISRCTN82731440 (project number 07/01/34).
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Simon Fynn
- Department of Cardiology, Papworth Hospital, Cambridge, UK
| | | | - Tomasz J Spyt
- Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Glenfield Hospital, Leicester, UK
| | | | | | | | - Jeshika Singh
- Department of Health Economics, Brunel University, London, UK
| | - Malcolm Dalrymple-Hay
- Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Plymouth Hospital, Derriford Hospital, Plymouth, UK
| | | | | | - Peter Braidley
- Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Northern General Hospital, Sheffield, UK
| | | | - Linda D Sharples
- Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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22
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Fisher BA, Everett CC, Rout J, O'Dwyer JL, Emery P, Pitzalis C, Ng WF, Carr A, Pease CT, Price EJ, Sutcliffe N, Makdissi J, Tappuni AR, Gendi NST, Hall FC, Ruddock SP, Fernandez C, Hulme CT, Davies KA, Edwards CJ, Lanyon PC, Moots RJ, Roussou E, Richards A, Sharples LD, Bombardieri M, Bowman SJ. Effect of rituximab on a salivary gland ultrasound score in primary Sjögren's syndrome: results of the TRACTISS randomised double-blind multicentre substudy. Ann Rheum Dis 2017; 77:412-416. [PMID: 29275334 PMCID: PMC5867400 DOI: 10.1136/annrheumdis-2017-212268] [Citation(s) in RCA: 64] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/21/2017] [Revised: 12/01/2017] [Accepted: 12/01/2017] [Indexed: 01/24/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To compare the effects of rituximab versus placebo on salivary gland ultrasound (SGUS) in primary Sjögren's syndrome (PSS) in a multicentre, multiobserver phase III trial substudy. METHODS Subjects consenting to SGUS were randomised to rituximab or placebo given at weeks 0, 2, 24 and 26, and scanned at baseline and weeks 16 and 48. Sonographers completed a 0-11 total ultrasound score (TUS) comprising domains of echogenicity, homogeneity, glandular definition, glands involved and hypoechoic foci size. Baseline-adjusted TUS values were analysed over time, modelling change from baseline at each time point. For each TUS domain, we fitted a repeated-measures logistic regression model to model the odds of a response in the rituximab arm (≥1-point improvement) as a function of the baseline score, age category, disease duration and time point. RESULTS 52 patients (n=26 rituximab and n=26 placebo) from nine centres completed baseline and one or more follow-up visits. Estimated between-group differences (rituximab-placebo) in baseline-adjusted TUS were -1.2 (95% CI -2.1 to -0.3; P=0.0099) and -1.2 (95% CI -2.0 to -0.5; P=0.0023) at weeks 16 and 48. Glandular definition improved in the rituximab arm with an OR of 6.8 (95% CI 1.1 to 43.0; P=0.043) at week 16 and 10.3 (95% CI 1.0 to 105.9; P=0.050) at week 48. CONCLUSIONS We demonstrated statistically significant improvement in TUS after rituximab compared with placebo. This encourages further research into both B cell depletion therapies in PSS and SGUS as an imaging biomarker. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER 65360827, 2010-021430-64; Results.
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Affiliation(s)
- Benjamin A Fisher
- National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre, Birmingham, UK.,Rheumatology Research Group, Institute of Inflammation and Ageing, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.,Rheumatology Department, University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, Birmingham, UK
| | - Colin C Everett
- Leeds Institute for Clinical Trials Research, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - John Rout
- Birmingham Dental Hospital, Birmingham, UK
| | - John L O'Dwyer
- Academic Unit of Health Economics, Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Paul Emery
- Biomedical Research Centre, Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust, Leeds, UK.,Leeds Institute of Rheumatic and Musculoskeletal Medicine, University of Leeds, Chapel Allerton Hospital, Leeds, UK
| | - Costantino Pitzalis
- William Harvey Research Institute, Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry, London, UK
| | - Wan-Fai Ng
- Institute of Cellular Medicine, University of Newcastle, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, UK
| | - Andrew Carr
- Newcastle Dental Hospital, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, UK
| | - Colin T Pease
- Biomedical Research Centre, Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust, Leeds, UK.,Leeds Institute of Rheumatic and Musculoskeletal Medicine, University of Leeds, Chapel Allerton Hospital, Leeds, UK
| | | | | | - Jimmy Makdissi
- Institute of Dentistry, Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK
| | - Anwar R Tappuni
- Institute of Dentistry, Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK
| | | | - Frances C Hall
- Department of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge, Addenbrookes Hospital, Cambridge, UK
| | - Sharon P Ruddock
- Leeds Institute for Clinical Trials Research, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Catherine Fernandez
- Leeds Institute for Clinical Trials Research, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Claire T Hulme
- Academic Unit of Health Economics, Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Kevin A Davies
- Brighton and Sussex Medical School, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK
| | - Christopher John Edwards
- NIHR Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Facility, University Hospital Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Peter C Lanyon
- Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, and Nottingham NHS Treatment Centre, Nottingham, UK
| | - Robert J Moots
- Department of Musculoskeletal Biology, Institute of Ageing and Chronic Disease, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Euthalia Roussou
- Barking Havering and Redbridge University Hospitals NHS trust (BHRUT), King George Hospital, Goodmayes, UK
| | | | - Linda D Sharples
- Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Michele Bombardieri
- William Harvey Research Institute, Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry, London, UK
| | - Simon J Bowman
- National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre, Birmingham, UK.,Rheumatology Research Group, Institute of Inflammation and Ageing, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.,Rheumatology Department, University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, Birmingham, UK
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23
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Abu-Omar Y, Thorpe BS, Freeman C, Mills C, Stoneman VE, Gopalan D, Rana B, Spyt TJ, Sharples LD, Nashef SA. Recovery of Left Atrial Contractile Function After Maze Surgery in Persistent Longstanding Atrial Fibrillation. J Am Coll Cardiol 2017; 70:2309-2311. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jacc.2017.08.073] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/09/2017] [Revised: 08/08/2017] [Accepted: 08/21/2017] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
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Papachristofi O, Klein AA, Mackay J, Nashef S, Fletcher N, Sharples LD. Effect of individual patient risk, centre, surgeon and anaesthetist on length of stay in hospital after cardiac surgery: Association of Cardiothoracic Anaesthesia and Critical Care (ACTACC) consecutive cases series study of 10 UK specialist centres. BMJ Open 2017; 7:e016947. [PMID: 28893748 PMCID: PMC5595188 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2017-016947] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To determine the relative contributions of patient risk profile, local and individual clinical practice on length of hospital stay after cardiac surgery. DESIGN Ten-year audit of prospectively collected consecutive cardiac surgical cases. Case-mix adjusted outcomes were analysed in models that included random effects for centre, surgeon and anaesthetist. SETTING UK centres providing adult cardiac surgery. PARTICIPANTS 10 of 36 UK specialist centres agreed to provide outcomes for all major cardiac operations over 10 years. After exclusions (duplicates, cases operated by more than one consultant, deaths and procedures for which the EuroSCORE risk score for cardiac surgery is not appropriate), there were 107 038 cardiac surgical procedures between April 2002 and March 2012, conducted by 127 consultant surgeons and 190 consultant anaesthetists. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Length of stay (LOS) up to 3 months postoperatively. RESULTS The principal component of variation in outcomes was patient risk (represented by the EuroSCORE and remaining patient heterogeneity), accounting for 95.43% of the variation for postoperative LOS. The impact of the surgeon and centre was moderate (intra-class correlation coefficients ICC=2.79% and 1.59%, respectively), whereas the impact of the anaesthetist was negligible (ICC=0.19%). Similarly, 96.05% of the variation for prolonged LOS (>11 days) was attributable to the patient, with surgeon and centre less but still influential components (ICC=2.12% and 1.66%, respectively, 0.17% only for anaesthetists). Adjustment for year of operation resulted in minor reductions in variation attributable to surgeons (ICC=2.52% for LOS and 2.23% for prolonged LOS). CONCLUSIONS Patient risk profile is the primary determinant of variation in LOS, and as a result, current initiatives to reduce hospital stay by modifying consultant performance are unlikely to have a substantial impact. Therefore, substantially reducing hospital stay requires shifting away from a one-size-fits-all approach to cardiac surgery, and seeking alternative treatment options personalised to high-risk patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Olympia Papachristofi
- Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Andrew A Klein
- Department of Anaesthesia and Intensive Care, Papworth Hospital, Cambridge, UK
| | - John Mackay
- Department of Anaesthesia and Intensive Care, Papworth Hospital, Cambridge, UK
| | - Samer Nashef
- Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Papworth Hospital, Cambridge, UK
| | - Nick Fletcher
- Department of Anaesthesia and Intensive Care, St George’s Hospital, London, UK
| | - Linda D Sharples
- Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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25
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Bowman SJ, Everett CC, O'Dwyer JL, Emery P, Pitzalis C, Ng WF, Pease CT, Price EJ, Sutcliffe N, Gendi NST, Hall FC, Ruddock SP, Fernandez C, Reynolds C, Hulme CT, Davies KA, Edwards CJ, Lanyon PC, Moots RJ, Roussou E, Giles IP, Sharples LD, Bombardieri M. Randomized Controlled Trial of Rituximab and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis in Treating Fatigue and Oral Dryness in Primary Sjögren's Syndrome. Arthritis Rheumatol 2017; 69:1440-1450. [PMID: 28296257 DOI: 10.1002/art.40093] [Citation(s) in RCA: 157] [Impact Index Per Article: 22.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/28/2016] [Accepted: 03/07/2017] [Indexed: 01/05/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To investigate whether rituximab, an anti-B cell therapy, improves symptoms of fatigue and oral dryness in patients with primary Sjögren's syndrome (SS). METHODS We conducted a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group trial that included health economic analysis. Anti-Ro-positive patients with primary SS, symptomatic fatigue, and oral dryness were recruited from 25 UK rheumatology clinics from August 2011 to January 2014. Patients were centrally randomized to receive either intravenous (IV) placebo (250 ml saline) or IV rituximab (1,000 mg in 250 ml saline) in 2 courses at weeks 0, 2, 24, and 26, with pre- and postinfusion medication including corticosteroids. The primary end point was the proportion of patients achieving a 30% reduction in either fatigue or oral dryness at 48 weeks, as measured by visual analog scale. Other outcome measures included salivary and lacrimal flow rates, quality of life, scores on the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) Sjögren's Syndrome Patient Reported Index and EULAR Sjögren's Syndrome Disease Activity Index, symptoms of ocular and overall dryness, pain, globally assessed disease activity, and cost-effectiveness. RESULTS All 133 patients who were randomized to receive placebo (n = 66) or rituximab (n = 67) were included in the primary analysis. Among patients with complete data, 21 of 56 placebo-treated patients and 24 of 61 rituximab-treated patients achieved the primary end point. After multiple imputation of missing outcomes, response rates in the placebo and rituximab groups were 36.8% and 39.8%, respectively (adjusted odds ratio 1.13 [95% confidence interval 0.50, 2.55]). There were no significant improvements in any outcome measure except for unstimulated salivary flow. The mean ± SD costs per patient for rituximab and placebo were £10,752 ± 264.75 and £2,672 ± 241.71, respectively. There were slightly more adverse events (AEs) reported in total for rituximab, but there was no difference in serious AEs (10 in each group). CONCLUSION The results of this study indicate that rituximab is neither clinically effective nor cost-effective in this patient population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Simon J Bowman
- University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, Birmingham, UK
| | | | | | | | | | - Wan-Fai Ng
- University of Newcastle, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, UK
| | | | | | | | | | - Frances C Hall
- University of Cambridge, Addenbrookes Hospital, Cambridge, UK
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Christopher J Edwards
- NIHR Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Facility, University Hospital Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Peter C Lanyon
- University of Nottingham and Circle Nottingham, Nottingham NHS Treatment Centre, Nottingham, UK
| | | | - Euthalia Roussou
- King George Hospital, Barking Havering and Redbridge University Hospitals NHS Trust, Essex, UK
| | - Ian P Giles
- University College London Hospital, London, UK
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26
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Ieva F, Jackson CH, Sharples LD. Multi-state modelling of repeated hospitalisation and death in patients with heart failure: The use of large administrative databases in clinical epidemiology. Stat Methods Med Res 2017; 26:1350-1372. [PMID: 25817136 PMCID: PMC4964935 DOI: 10.1177/0962280215578777] [Citation(s) in RCA: 48] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
In chronic diseases like heart failure (HF), the disease course and associated clinical event histories for the patient population vary widely. To improve understanding of the prognosis of patients and enable health care providers to assess and manage resources, we wish to jointly model disease progression, mortality and their relation with patient characteristics. We show how episodes of hospitalisation for disease-related events, obtained from administrative data, can be used as a surrogate for disease status. We propose flexible multi-state models for serial hospital admissions and death in HF patients, that are able to accommodate important features of disease progression, such as multiple ordered events and competing risks. Fully parametric and semi-parametric semi-Markov models are implemented using freely available software in R. The models were applied to a dataset from the administrative data bank of the Lombardia region in Northern Italy, which included 15,298 patients who had a first hospitalisation ending in 2006 and 4 years of follow-up thereafter. This provided estimates of the associations of age and gender with rates of hospital admission and length of stay in hospital, and estimates of the expected total time spent in hospital over five years. For example, older patients and men were readmitted more frequently, though the total time in hospital was roughly constant with age. We also discuss the relative merits of parametric and semi-parametric multi-state models, and model assessment and comparison.
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Affiliation(s)
- Francesca Ieva
- Department of Mathematics “Federigo Enriques”, Universit degli Studi di Milano, Milano, Italy
| | | | - Linda D. Sharples
- Clinical Trials Research Unit, Leeds Institute of Clinical Trials Research, University of Leeds, Leeds (UK)
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27
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Clayton GL, Smith IL, Higgins JPT, Mihaylova B, Thorpe B, Cicero R, Lokuge K, Forman JR, Tierney JF, White IR, Sharples LD, Jones HE. The INVEST project: investigating the use of evidence synthesis in the design and analysis of clinical trials. Trials 2017; 18:219. [PMID: 28506284 PMCID: PMC5433067 DOI: 10.1186/s13063-017-1955-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2017] [Accepted: 04/26/2017] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND When designing and analysing clinical trials, using previous relevant information, perhaps in the form of evidence syntheses, can reduce research waste. We conducted the INVEST (INVestigating the use of Evidence Synthesis in the design and analysis of clinical Trials) survey to summarise the current use of evidence synthesis in trial design and analysis, to capture opinions of trialists and methodologists on such use, and to understand any barriers. METHODS Our sampling frame was all delegates attending the International Clinical Trials Methodology Conference in November 2015. Respondents were asked to indicate (1) their views on the use of evidence synthesis in trial design and analysis, (2) their own use during the past 10 years and (3) the three greatest barriers to use in practice. RESULTS Of approximately 638 attendees of the conference, 106 (17%) completed the survey, half of whom were statisticians. Support was generally high for using a description of previous evidence, a systematic review or a meta-analysis in trial design. Generally, respondents did not seem to be using evidence syntheses as often as they felt they should. For example, only 50% (42/84 relevant respondents) had used a meta-analysis to inform whether a trial is needed compared with 74% (62/84) indicating that this is desirable. Only 6% (5/81 relevant respondents) had used a value of information analysis to inform sample size calculations versus 22% (18/81) indicating support for this. Surprisingly large numbers of participants indicated support for, and previous use of, evidence syntheses in trial analysis. For example, 79% (79/100) of respondents indicated that external information about the treatment effect should be used to inform aspects of the analysis. The greatest perceived barrier to using evidence synthesis methods in trial design or analysis was time constraints, followed by a belief that the new trial was the first in the area. CONCLUSIONS Evidence syntheses can be resource-intensive, but their use in informing the design, conduct and analysis of clinical trials is widely considered desirable. We advocate additional research, training and investment in resources dedicated to ways in which evidence syntheses can be undertaken more efficiently, offering the potential for cost savings in the long term.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gemma L. Clayton
- School of Social and Community Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Canynge Hall, 39 Whatley Road, Bristol, BS8 2PS UK
| | - Isabelle L. Smith
- Leeds Institute of Clinical Trials Research, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Julian P. T. Higgins
- School of Social and Community Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Canynge Hall, 39 Whatley Road, Bristol, BS8 2PS UK
| | - Borislava Mihaylova
- Health Economics Research Centre, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Benjamin Thorpe
- Leeds Institute of Clinical Trials Research, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Robert Cicero
- Leeds Institute of Clinical Trials Research, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Kusal Lokuge
- Health Economics Research Centre, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Julia R. Forman
- Cambridge Clinical Trials Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | | | - Ian R. White
- MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge Institute of Public Health, Cambridge, UK
| | | | - Hayley E. Jones
- School of Social and Community Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Canynge Hall, 39 Whatley Road, Bristol, BS8 2PS UK
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28
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Giraud K, Pontin M, Sharples LD, Fletcher P, Dalgleish T, Eden A, Jenkins DP, Vuylsteke A. Use of a Structured Mirrors Intervention Does Not Reduce Delirium Incidence But May Improve Factual Memory Encoding in Cardiac Surgical ICU Patients Aged Over 70 Years: A Pilot Time-Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial. Front Aging Neurosci 2016; 8:228. [PMID: 27733826 PMCID: PMC5039170 DOI: 10.3389/fnagi.2016.00228] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/22/2015] [Accepted: 09/13/2016] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction: Post-operative delirium remains a significant problem, particularly in the older surgical patient. Previous evidence suggests that the provision of supplementary visual feedback about ones environment via the use of a mirror may positively impact on mental status and attention (core delirium diagnostic domains). We aimed to explore whether use of an evidence-based mirrors intervention could be effective in reducing delirium and improving post-operative outcomes such as factual memory encoding of the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) environment in older cardiac surgical patients. Methods: This was a pilot time-cluster randomized controlled trial at a 32-bed ICU, enrolling 223 patients aged 70 years and over, admitted to ICU after elective or urgent cardiac surgery from October 29, 2012 to June 23, 2013. The Mirrors Group received a structured mirrors intervention at set times (e.g., following change in mental status). The Usual Care Group received the standard care without mirrors. Primary outcome was ICU delirium incidence; secondary outcomes were ICU delirium days, ICU days with altered mental status or inattention, total length of ICU stay, physical mobilization (balance confidence) at ICU discharge, recall of factual and delusional ICU memories at 12 weeks, Health-Related Quality of Life at 12 weeks, and acceptability of the intervention. Results: The intervention was not associated with a significant reduction in ICU delirium incidence [Mirrors: 20/115 (17%); Usual Care: 17/108 (16%)] or duration [Mirrors: 1 (1-3); Usual Care: 2 (1-8)]. Use of the intervention on ICU was predictive of significantly higher recall of factual (but not delusional) items at 12 weeks after surgery (p = 0.003) and acceptability was high, with clinicians using mirrors at 86% of all recorded hourly observations. The intervention did not significantly impact on other secondary outcomes. Conclusion: Use of a structured mirrors intervention on the post-operative ICU does not reduce delirium, but may result in improved factual memory encoding in older cardiac surgical patients. This effect may occur via mechanisms unrelated to delirium, altered mental status, or inattention. The intervention may provide a new means of improving outcomes in patients at risk of post-ICU anxiety and/or Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder. Trial Registration: Clinicaltrials.gov identifier NCT01599689.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kimberly Giraud
- Cognitive Research Unit, Research & Development Department, Papworth Hospital NHS Foundation Trust Cambridge, UK
| | - Megan Pontin
- Critical Care Unit, Papworth Hospital NHS Foundation Trust Cambridge, UK
| | - Linda D Sharples
- Leeds Institute of Clinical Trials Research, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Leeds Leeds, UK
| | - Paul Fletcher
- Department of Psychiatry, School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge Cambridge, UK
| | - Tim Dalgleish
- Cognition, Emotion, and Mental Health Programme, Medical Research Council Cognition and Brain Sciences Unit Cambridge, UK
| | - Allaina Eden
- Physiotherapy Department, Papworth Hospital NHS Foundation Trust Cambridge, UK
| | - David P Jenkins
- Cardiac Services, Papworth Hospital NHS Foundation Trust Cambridge, UK
| | - Alain Vuylsteke
- Department of Cardiothoracic Anaesthesia & Intensive Care, Papworth Hospital NHS Foundation Trust Cambridge, UK
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29
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Greenwood JP, Ripley DP, Berry C, McCann GP, Plein S, Bucciarelli-Ducci C, Dall'Armellina E, Prasad A, Bijsterveld P, Foley JR, Mangion K, Sculpher M, Walker S, Everett CC, Cairns DA, Sharples LD, Brown JM. Effect of Care Guided by Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance, Myocardial Perfusion Scintigraphy, or NICE Guidelines on Subsequent Unnecessary Angiography Rates: The CE-MARC 2 Randomized Clinical Trial. JAMA 2016; 316:1051-60. [PMID: 27570866 DOI: 10.1001/jama.2016.12680] [Citation(s) in RCA: 192] [Impact Index Per Article: 24.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
IMPORTANCE Among patients with suspected coronary heart disease (CHD), rates of invasive angiography are considered too high. OBJECTIVE To test the hypothesis that among patients with suspected CHD, cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR)-guided care is superior to National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines-directed care and myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (MPS)-guided care in reducing unnecessary angiography. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Multicenter, 3-parallel group, randomized clinical trial using a pragmatic comparative effectiveness design. From 6 UK hospitals, 1202 symptomatic patients with suspected CHD and a CHD pretest likelihood of 10% to 90% were recruited. First randomization was November 23, 2012; last 12-month follow-up was March 12, 2016. INTERVENTIONS Patients were randomly assigned (240:481:481) to management according to UK NICE guidelines or to guided care based on the results of CMR or MPS testing. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary end point was protocol-defined unnecessary coronary angiography (normal fractional flow reserve >0.8 or quantitative coronary angiography [QCA] showing no percentage diameter stenosis ≥70% in 1 view or ≥50% in 2 orthogonal views in all coronary vessels ≥2.5 mm diameter) within 12 months. Secondary end points included positive angiography, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), and procedural complications. RESULTS Among 1202 symptomatic patients (mean age, 56.3 years [SD, 9.0]; women, 564 [46.9%] ; mean CHD pretest likelihood, 49.5% [SD, 23.8%]), number of patients with invasive coronary angiography after 12 months was 102 in the NICE guidelines group (42.5% [95% CI, 36.2%-49.0%])], 85 in the CMR group (17.7% [95% CI, 14.4%-21.4%]); and 78 in the MPS group (16.2% [95% CI, 13.0%-19.8%]). Study-defined unnecessary angiography occurred in 69 (28.8%) in the NICE guidelines group, 36 (7.5%) in the CMR group, and 34 (7.1%) in the MPS group; adjusted odds ratio of unnecessary angiography: CMR group vs NICE guidelines group, 0.21 (95% CI, 0.12-0.34, P < .001); CMR group vs the MPS group, 1.27 (95% CI, 0.79-2.03, P = .32). Positive angiography proportions were 12.1% (95% CI, 8.2%-16.9%; 29/240 patients) for the NICE guidelines group, 9.8% (95% CI, 7.3%-12.8%; 47/481 patients) for the CMR group, and 8.7% (95% CI, 6.4%-11.6%; 42/481 patients) for the MPS group. A MACE was reported at a minimum of 12 months in 1.7% of patients in the NICE guidelines group, 2.5% in the CMR group, and 2.5% in the MPS group (adjusted hazard ratios: CMR group vs NICE guidelines group, 1.37 [95% CI, 0.52-3.57]; CMR group vs MPS group, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.46-1.95]). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In patients with suspected angina, investigation by CMR resulted in a lower probability of unnecessary angiography within 12 months than NICE guideline-directed care, with no statistically significant difference between CMR and MPS strategies. There were no statistically significant differences in MACE rates. TRIAL REGISTRATION Clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01664858.
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Affiliation(s)
- John P Greenwood
- Division of Biomedical Imaging, Multidisciplinary Cardiovascular Research Centre, Leeds Institute of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Medicine, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - David P Ripley
- Division of Biomedical Imaging, Multidisciplinary Cardiovascular Research Centre, Leeds Institute of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Medicine, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Colin Berry
- Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences, College of Medical, Veterinary, and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Gerry P McCann
- Department of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, United Kingdom4NIHR Leicester Cardiovascular Biomedical Research Unit, Glenfield Hospital, Leicester, United Kingdom
| | - Sven Plein
- Division of Biomedical Imaging, Multidisciplinary Cardiovascular Research Centre, Leeds Institute of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Medicine, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Chiara Bucciarelli-Ducci
- Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance Unit, National Institute for Health Research Bristol Cardiovascular Biomedical Research Unit, Bristol Heart Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
| | - Erica Dall'Armellina
- Acute Vascular Imaging Centre, Radcliffe Department of Medicine, John Radcliffe Hospital, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Abhiram Prasad
- Cardiovascular Sciences Research Centre, St George's, University of London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Petra Bijsterveld
- Division of Biomedical Imaging, Multidisciplinary Cardiovascular Research Centre, Leeds Institute of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Medicine, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - James R Foley
- Division of Biomedical Imaging, Multidisciplinary Cardiovascular Research Centre, Leeds Institute of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Medicine, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Kenneth Mangion
- Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences, College of Medical, Veterinary, and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Mark Sculpher
- Centre for Health Economics, University of York, York, United Kingdom
| | - Simon Walker
- Centre for Health Economics, University of York, York, United Kingdom
| | - Colin C Everett
- Clinical Trials Research Unit, Leeds Institute of Clinical Trials Research, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - David A Cairns
- Clinical Trials Research Unit, Leeds Institute of Clinical Trials Research, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Linda D Sharples
- Clinical Trials Research Unit, Leeds Institute of Clinical Trials Research, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Julia M Brown
- Clinical Trials Research Unit, Leeds Institute of Clinical Trials Research, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
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30
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Papachristofi O, Jenkins D, Sharples LD. Assessment of learning curves in complex surgical interventions: a consecutive case-series study. Trials 2016; 17:266. [PMID: 27245050 PMCID: PMC4888720 DOI: 10.1186/s13063-016-1383-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/05/2015] [Accepted: 05/05/2016] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Surgical interventions are complex, which complicates their rigorous assessment through randomised clinical trials. An important component of complexity relates to surgeon experience and the rate at which the required level of skill is achieved, known as the learning curve. There is considerable evidence that operator performance for surgical innovations will change with increasing experience. Such learning effects complicate evaluations; the start of the trial might be delayed, resulting in loss of surgeon equipoise or, if an assessment is undertaken before performance has stabilised, the true impact of the intervention may be distorted. Methods Formal estimation of learning parameters is necessary to characterise the learning curve, model its evolution and adjust for its presence during assessment. Current methods are either descriptive or model the learning curve through three main features: the initial skill level, the learning rate and the final skill level achieved. We introduce a fourth characterising feature, the duration of the learning period, which provides an estimate of the point at which learning has stabilised. We propose a two-phase model to estimate formally all four learning curve features. Results We demonstrate that the two-phase model can be used to estimate the end of the learning period by incorporating a parameter for estimating the duration of learning. This is achieved by breaking down the model into a phase describing the learning period and one describing cases after the final skill level is reached, with the break point representing the length of learning. We illustrate the method using cardiac surgery data. Conclusions This modelling extension is useful as it provides a measure of the potential cost of learning an intervention and enables statisticians to accommodate cases undertaken during the learning phase and assess the intervention after the optimal skill level is reached. The limitations of the method and implications for the optimal timing of a definitive randomised controlled trial are also discussed. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13063-016-1383-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
- Olympia Papachristofi
- MRC Biostatistics Unit, Robinson Way, CB4 3EU, Cambridge, UK. .,Comprehensive Health Research Division, Leeds Institute of Clinical Trials Research, University of Leeds, 71-75 Clarendon Road, LS2 9PH, Leeds, UK.
| | - David Jenkins
- Departments of Surgery, Anaesthesia and Clinical Audit, Papworth Hospital, CB23 8RE,, Cambridge, UK
| | - Linda D Sharples
- Comprehensive Health Research Division, Leeds Institute of Clinical Trials Research, University of Leeds, 71-75 Clarendon Road, LS2 9PH, Leeds, UK
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Barr AJ, Dube B, Hensor EMA, Kingsbury SR, Peat G, Bowes MA, Sharples LD, Conaghan PG. The relationship between three-dimensional knee MRI bone shape and total knee replacement-a case control study: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative. Rheumatology (Oxford) 2016; 55:1585-93. [PMID: 27185958 PMCID: PMC4993955 DOI: 10.1093/rheumatology/kew191] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2015] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective. There is growing understanding of the importance of bone in OA. Our aim was to determine the relationship between 3D MRI bone shape and total knee replacement (TKR). Methods. A nested case-control study within the Osteoarthritis Initiative cohort identified case knees with confirmed TKR for OA and controls that were matched using propensity scores. Active appearance modelling quantification of the bone shape of all knee bones identified vectors between knees having or not having OA. Vectors were scaled such that −1 and +1 represented the mean non-OA and mean OA shapes. Results. Compared to controls (n = 310), TKR cases (n = 310) had a more positive mean baseline 3D bone shape vector, indicating more advanced structural OA, for the femur [mean 0.98 vs −0.11; difference (95% CI) 1.10 (0.88, 1.31)], tibia [mean 0.86 vs −0.07; difference (95% CI) 0.94 (0.72, 1.16)] and patella [mean 0.95 vs 0.03; difference (95% CI) 0.92 (0.65, 1.20)]. Odds ratios (95% CI) for TKR per normalized unit of 3D bone shape vector for the femur, tibia and patella were: 1.85 (1.59, 2.16), 1.64 (1.42, 1.89) and 1.36 (1.22, 1.50), respectively, all P < 0.001. After including Kellgren–Lawrence grade in a multivariable analysis, only the femur 3D shape vector remained significantly associated with TKR [odds ratio 1.24 (1.02, 1.51)]. Conclusion. 3D bone shape was associated with the endpoint of this study, TKR, with femoral shape being most associated. This study contributes to the validation of quantitative MRI bone biomarkers for OA structure-modification trials.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrew J Barr
- Leeds Institute of Rheumatic and Musculoskeletal Medicine, University of Leeds and NIHR Leeds Musculoskeletal Biomedical Research Unit, Leeds, UK
| | - Bright Dube
- Leeds Institute of Rheumatic and Musculoskeletal Medicine, University of Leeds and NIHR Leeds Musculoskeletal Biomedical Research Unit, Leeds, UK
| | - Elizabeth M A Hensor
- Leeds Institute of Rheumatic and Musculoskeletal Medicine, University of Leeds and NIHR Leeds Musculoskeletal Biomedical Research Unit, Leeds, UK
| | - Sarah R Kingsbury
- Leeds Institute of Rheumatic and Musculoskeletal Medicine, University of Leeds and NIHR Leeds Musculoskeletal Biomedical Research Unit, Leeds, UK
| | - George Peat
- Arthritis Research UK Primary Care Centre, Research Institute for Primary Care & Health Sciences, Keele University
| | | | - Linda D Sharples
- Leeds Institute of Clinical Trials Research, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Philip G Conaghan
- Leeds Institute of Rheumatic and Musculoskeletal Medicine, University of Leeds and NIHR Leeds Musculoskeletal Biomedical Research Unit, Leeds, UK
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Dobson LE, Fairbairn TA, Musa TA, Uddin A, Mundie CA, Swoboda PP, Ripley DP, McDiarmid AK, Erhayiem B, Garg P, Malkin CJ, Blackman DJ, Sharples LD, Plein S, Greenwood JP. Sex-related differences in left ventricular remodeling in severe aortic stenosis and reverse remodeling after aortic valve replacement: A cardiovascular magnetic resonance study. Am Heart J 2016; 175:101-11. [PMID: 27179729 DOI: 10.1016/j.ahj.2016.02.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 47] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/18/2015] [Accepted: 02/10/2016] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Cardiac adaptation to aortic stenosis (AS) appears to differ according to sex, but reverse remodeling after aortic valve replacement has not been extensively described. The aim of the study was to determine using cardiac magnetic resonance imaging whether any sex-related differences exist in AS in terms of left ventricular (LV) remodeling, myocardial fibrosis, and reverse remodeling after valve replacement. METHODS One hundred patients (men, n = 60) with severe AS undergoing either transcatheter or surgical aortic valve replacement underwent cardiac magnetic resonance scans at baseline and 6 months after valve replacement. RESULTS Despite similar baseline comorbidity and severity of AS, women had a lower indexed LV mass than did men (65.3 ± 18.4 vs 81.5 ± 21.3 g/m(2), P < .001) and a smaller indexed LV end-diastolic volume (87.3 ± 17.5 vs 101.2 ± 28.6 mL/m(2), P = .002) with a similar LV ejection fraction (58.6% ± 10.2% vs 54.8% ± 12.9%, P = .178). Total myocardial fibrosis mass was similar between sexes (2.3 ± 4.1 vs 1.3 ± 1.1 g, P = .714), albeit with a differing distribution according to sex. After aortic valve replacement, men had more absolute LV mass regression than did women (18.3 ± 10.6 vs 12.7 ± 8.8 g/m(2), P = .007). When expressed as a percentage reduction of baseline indexed LV mass, mass regression was similar between the sexes (men 21.7% ± 10.1% vs women 18.4% ± 11.0%, P = .121). There was no sex-related difference in postprocedural LV ejection fraction or aortic regurgitation. Sex was not found to be a predictor of LV reverse remodeling on multiple regression analysis. CONCLUSIONS There are significant differences in the way that male and female hearts adapt to AS. Six months after aortic valve replacement, there are no sex-related differences in reverse remodeling, but superior reverse remodeling in men as a result of their more adverse remodeling profile at baseline.
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Mackay JH, Nashef SAM, Klein AA, Papachristofi O, Sharples LD, Fletcher SN. Anaesthetist contribution to mortality after cardiac surgery - a reply. Anaesthesia 2016; 71:599-601. [PMID: 27072767 DOI: 10.1111/anae.13475] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
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34
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Barr AJ, Dube B, Hensor EMA, Kingsbury SR, Peat G, Bowes MA, Sharples LD, Conaghan PG. A5.01 The relationship between total knee replacement and 3D MRI knee bone shape: Data from the osteoarthritis initiative. Ann Rheum Dis 2016. [DOI: 10.1136/annrheumdis-2016-209124.99] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
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35
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Papachristofi O, Sharples LD, Mackay JH, Nashef SAM, Fletcher SN, Klein AA. The contribution of the anaesthetist to risk-adjusted mortality after cardiac surgery. Anaesthesia 2015; 71:138-46. [PMID: 26511481 PMCID: PMC4949638 DOI: 10.1111/anae.13291] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 09/18/2015] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
It is widely accepted that the performance of the operating surgeon affects outcomes, and this has led to the publication of surgical results in the public domain. However, the effect of other members of the multidisciplinary team is unknown. We studied the effect of the anaesthetist on mortality after cardiac surgery by analysing data collected prospectively over ten years of consecutive cardiac surgical cases from ten UK centres. Casemix‐adjusted outcomes were analysed in models that included random‐effects for centre, surgeon and anaesthetist. All cardiac surgical operations for which the EuroSCORE model is appropriate were included, and the primary outcome was in‐hospital death up to three months postoperatively. A total of 110 769 cardiac surgical procedures conducted between April 2002 and March 2012 were studied, which included 127 consultant surgeons and 190 consultant anaesthetists. The overwhelming factor associated with outcome was patient risk, accounting for 95.75% of the variation for in‐hospital mortality. The impact of the surgeon was moderate (intra‐class correlation coefficient 4.00% for mortality), and the impact of the anaesthetist was negligible (0.25%). There was no significant effect of anaesthetist volume above ten cases per year. We conclude that mortality after cardiac surgery is primarily determined by the patient, with small but significant differences between surgeons. Anaesthetists did not appear to affect mortality. These findings do not support public disclosure of cardiac anaesthetists' results, but substantially validate current UK cardiac anaesthetic training and practice. Further research is required to establish the potential effects of very low anaesthetic caseloads and the effect of cardiac anaesthetists on patient morbidity.
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Affiliation(s)
- O Papachristofi
- MRC Biostatistics Unit, Institute of Public Health, Cambridge, UK
| | - L D Sharples
- Clinical Trials Research Unit, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - J H Mackay
- Department of Anaesthesia and Intensive Care, Papworth Hospital, Cambridge, UK
| | - S A M Nashef
- Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Papworth Hospital, Cambridge, UK
| | - S N Fletcher
- Departments of Anaesthesia and Critical Care, St Georges University Hospital, London, UK
| | - A A Klein
- Department of Anaesthesia and Intensive Care, Papworth Hospital, Cambridge, UK
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36
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Sharples LD, Quinnell TG. Response to comments on "Meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials of oral mandibular advancement devices and continuous positive airway pressure for obstructive sleep apnoea-hypopnoea". Sleep Med Rev 2015; 27:41-2. [PMID: 26447848 DOI: 10.1016/j.smrv.2015.08.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/05/2015] [Accepted: 08/05/2015] [Indexed: 10/23/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Linda D Sharples
- University of Leeds, Clinical Trials Research Unit, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom; Papworth Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Papworth Everard, Cambridge, CB3 8RE, United Kingdom.
| | - Timothy G Quinnell
- University of Leeds, Clinical Trials Research Unit, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom; Papworth Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Papworth Everard, Cambridge, CB3 8RE, United Kingdom
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37
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Blencowe NS, Brown JM, Cook JA, Metcalfe C, Morton DG, Nicholl J, Sharples LD, Treweek S, Blazeby JM. Interventions in randomised controlled trials in surgery: issues to consider during trial design. Trials 2015; 16:392. [PMID: 26337522 PMCID: PMC4558964 DOI: 10.1186/s13063-015-0918-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/02/2015] [Accepted: 08/20/2015] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Until recently, insufficient attention has been paid to the fact that surgical interventions are complex. This complexity has several implications, including the way in which surgical interventions are described and delivered in trials. In order for surgeons to adopt trial findings, interventions need to be described in sufficient detail to enable accurate replication; however, it may be permissible to allow some aspects to be delivered according to local practice. Accumulating work in this area has identified the need for general guidance on the design of surgical interventions in trial protocols and reports. Key issues to consider when designing surgical interventions include the identification of each surgical intervention and their components, who will deliver the interventions, and where and how the interventions will be standardised and monitored during the trial. The trial design (pragmatic and explanatory), comparator and stage of innovation may also influence the extent of detail required. Thoughtful consideration of surgical interventions in this way may help with the interpretation of trial results and the adoption of successful interventions into clinical practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Natalie S Blencowe
- Centre for Surgical Research, School of Social and Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Canynge Hall, 39 Whatley Road, Clifton, Bristol, BS8 2PS, UK.
- Division of Surgery, Head & Neck, University Hospitals Bristol NHS Foundation Trust, Bristol, UK.
| | - Julia M Brown
- Leeds Institute for Clinical Trials Research, University of Leeds, Clarendon Road, Leeds, UK.
| | - Jonathan A Cook
- Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
| | - Chris Metcalfe
- Centre for Surgical Research, School of Social and Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Canynge Hall, 39 Whatley Road, Clifton, Bristol, BS8 2PS, UK.
| | - Dion G Morton
- Academic Department of Surgery, School of Cancer Sciences, Queen Elizabeth Hospital University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, UK.
| | - Jon Nicholl
- School of Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield, Regent Court, 30 Regent Street, Sheffield, UK.
| | - Linda D Sharples
- Leeds Institute for Clinical Trials Research, University of Leeds, Clarendon Road, Leeds, UK.
| | - Shaun Treweek
- Health Services Research Unit, University of Aberdeen, 3rd Floor, Health Sciences Building, Foresterhill, Aberdeen, UK.
| | - Jane M Blazeby
- Centre for Surgical Research, School of Social and Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Canynge Hall, 39 Whatley Road, Clifton, Bristol, BS8 2PS, UK.
- Division of Surgery, Head & Neck, University Hospitals Bristol NHS Foundation Trust, Bristol, UK.
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Abstract
Clinical registries are established as tools for auditing clinical standards and benchmarking quality improvement initiatives. They also have an emerging role (as electronic health records) in cardiovascular research and, in particular, the conduct of RCTs. While the RCT is accepted as the most robust experimental design, observational data from clinical registries has become increasingly valuable for RCTs. Data from clinical registries may be used to augment results from RCTs, identify patients for recruitment and as an alternative when randomization is not practically possible or ethically desirable. Here the authors appraise the advantages and disadvantages of both methodologies, with the aim of clarifying when their joint use may be successful.
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Affiliation(s)
- Francesca Ieva
- Department of Mathematics, Università degli Studi di Milano, via Saldini 50, 20133 Milano, Italy
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39
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Ortmann E, Besser MW, Sharples LD, Gerrard C, Berman M, Jenkins DP, Klein AA. An Exploratory Cohort Study Comparing Prothrombin Complex Concentrate and Fresh Frozen Plasma for the Treatment of Coagulopathy After Complex Cardiac Surgery. Anesth Analg 2015; 121:26-33. [DOI: 10.1213/ane.0000000000000689] [Citation(s) in RCA: 58] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
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40
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Sharples LD, Clutterbuck-James AL, Glover MJ, Bennett MS, Chadwick R, Pittman MA, Quinnell TG. Meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials of oral mandibular advancement devices and continuous positive airway pressure for obstructive sleep apnoea-hypopnoea. Sleep Med Rev 2015; 27:108-24. [PMID: 26163056 PMCID: PMC5378304 DOI: 10.1016/j.smrv.2015.05.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 129] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/04/2014] [Revised: 04/17/2015] [Accepted: 05/15/2015] [Indexed: 02/01/2023]
Abstract
Obstructive sleep apnoea-hypopnoea (OSAH) causes excessive daytime sleepiness, impairs quality-of-life, and increases cardiovascular disease and road traffic accident risks. Continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) treatment and mandibular advancement devices (MAD) have been shown to be effective in individual trials but their effectiveness particularly relative to disease severity is unclear. A MEDLINE, Embase and Science Citation Index search updating two systematic reviews to August 2013 identified 77 RCTs in adult OSAH patients comparing: MAD with conservative management (CM); MAD with CPAP; or CPAP with CM. Overall MAD and CPAP significantly improved apnoea-hypopnoea index (AHI) (MAD −9.3/hr (p < 0.001), CPAP −25.4 (p < 0.001)). In direct comparisons mean AHI and Epworth sleepiness scale score were lower (7.0/hr (p < 0.001) and 0.67 (p = 0.093) respectively) for CPAP. There were no CPAP vs. MAD trials in mild OSAH but in comparisons with CM, MAD and CPAP reduced ESS similarly (MAD 2.01 (p < 0.001); CPAP 1.23 (p = 0.012). Both MAD and CPAP are clinically effective in the treatment of OSAH. Although CPAP has a greater treatment effect, MAD is an appropriate treatment for patients who are intolerant of CPAP and may be comparable to CPAP in mild disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Linda D Sharples
- University of Leeds Clinical Trials Research Unit, Leeds, United Kingdom; Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
| | | | - Matthew J Glover
- Health Economics Research Unit, Brunel University, Uxbridge, Middlesex, United Kingdom
| | - Maxine S Bennett
- Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Rebecca Chadwick
- University Hospitals Coventry and Warwickshire NHS Trust, Coventry, United Kingdom
| | - Marcus A Pittman
- Papworth Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Papworth Everard, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Timothy G Quinnell
- Papworth Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Papworth Everard, Cambridge, United Kingdom
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Abstract
Recent studies of (cost-) effectiveness in cardiothoracic transplantation have required estimation of mean survival over the lifetime of the recipients. In order to calculate mean survival, the complete survivor curve is required but is often not fully observed, so that survival extrapolation is necessary. After transplantation, the hazard function is bathtub-shaped, reflecting latent competing risks which operate additively in overlapping time periods. The poly-Weibull distribution is a flexible parametric model that may be used to extrapolate survival and has a natural competing risks interpretation. In addition, treatment effects and subgroups can be modelled separately for each component of risk. We describe the model and develop inference procedures using freely available software. The methods are applied to two problems from cardiothoracic transplantation.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - David Lunn
- Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge, UK
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42
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Geneletti S, O'Keeffe AG, Sharples LD, Richardson S, Baio G. Bayesian regression discontinuity designs: incorporating clinical knowledge in the causal analysis of primary care data. Stat Med 2015; 34:2334-52. [PMID: 25809691 PMCID: PMC4856212 DOI: 10.1002/sim.6486] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2014] [Revised: 01/22/2015] [Accepted: 03/02/2015] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Abstract
The regression discontinuity (RD) design is a quasi-experimental design that estimates the causal effects of a treatment by exploiting naturally occurring treatment rules. It can be applied in any context where a particular treatment or intervention is administered according to a pre-specified rule linked to a continuous variable. Such thresholds are common in primary care drug prescription where the RD design can be used to estimate the causal effect of medication in the general population. Such results can then be contrasted to those obtained from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and inform prescription policy and guidelines based on a more realistic and less expensive context. In this paper, we focus on statins, a class of cholesterol-lowering drugs, however, the methodology can be applied to many other drugs provided these are prescribed in accordance to pre-determined guidelines. Current guidelines in the UK state that statins should be prescribed to patients with 10-year cardiovascular disease risk scores in excess of 20%. If we consider patients whose risk scores are close to the 20% risk score threshold, we find that there is an element of random variation in both the risk score itself and its measurement. We can therefore consider the threshold as a randomising device that assigns statin prescription to individuals just above the threshold and withholds it from those just below. Thus, we are effectively replicating the conditions of an RCT in the area around the threshold, removing or at least mitigating confounding. We frame the RD design in the language of conditional independence, which clarifies the assumptions necessary to apply an RD design to data, and which makes the links with instrumental variables clear. We also have context-specific knowledge about the expected sizes of the effects of statin prescription and are thus able to incorporate this into Bayesian models by formulating informative priors on our causal parameters.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sara Geneletti
- Department of Statistics, London School of Economics, LondonU.K
| | - Aidan G O'Keeffe
- Department of Statistical Science, University College London, LondonU.K
| | - Linda D Sharples
- Leeds Institute of Clinical Trials Research, University of Leeds, LeedsU.K
| | | | - Gianluca Baio
- Department of Statistical Science, University College London, LondonU.K
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Thom HHZ, Jackson CH, Commenges D, Sharples LD. State selection in Markov models for panel data with application to psoriatic arthritis. Stat Med 2015; 34:2456-75. [PMID: 25739994 DOI: 10.1002/sim.6460] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/14/2014] [Revised: 01/17/2015] [Accepted: 02/11/2015] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Markov multistate models in continuous-time are commonly used to understand the progression over time of disease or the effect of treatments and covariates on patient outcomes. The states in multistate models are related to categorisations of the disease status, but there is often uncertainty about the number of categories to use and how to define them. Many categorisations, and therefore multistate models with different states, may be possible. Different multistate models can show differences in the effects of covariates or in the time to events, such as death, hospitalisation, or disease progression. Furthermore, different categorisations contain different quantities of information, so that the corresponding likelihoods are on different scales, and standard, likelihood-based model comparison is not applicable. We adapt a recently developed modification of Akaike's criterion, and a cross-validatory criterion, to compare the predictive ability of multistate models on the information which they share. All the models we consider are fitted to data consisting of observations of the process at arbitrary times, often called 'panel' data. We develop an implementation of these criteria through Hidden Markov models and apply them to the comparison of multistate models for the Health Assessment Questionnaire score in psoriatic arthritis. This procedure is straightforward to implement in the R package 'msm'.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Daniel Commenges
- Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, Bordeaux, France
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Navarro Coy NC, Brown S, Bosworth A, Davies CT, Emery P, Everett CC, Fernandez C, Gray JC, Hartley S, Hulme C, Keenan AM, McCabe C, Redmond A, Reynolds C, Scott D, Sharples LD, Pavitt S, Buch MH. The 'Switch' study protocol: a randomised-controlled trial of switching to an alternative tumour-necrosis factor (TNF)-inhibitor drug or abatacept or rituximab in patients with rheumatoid arthritis who have failed an initial TNF-inhibitor drug. BMC Musculoskelet Disord 2014; 15:452. [PMID: 25539805 PMCID: PMC4391115 DOI: 10.1186/1471-2474-15-452] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/09/2014] [Accepted: 12/17/2014] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) is one of the most common autoimmune diseases, affecting approximately 1% of the UK adult population. Patients suffer considerable pain, stiffness and swelling and can sustain various degrees of joint destruction, deformity, and significant functional decline. In addition, the economic burden due to hospitalisation and loss of employment is considerable, with over 50% of patients being work-disabled within 10 years of diagnosis. Despite several biologic disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (bDMARD) now available, there is a lack of data to guide biologic sequencing. In the UK, second-line biologic treatment is restricted to a single option, rituximab. The aim of the SWITCH trial is to establish whether an alternative-mechanism-TNF-inhibitor (TNFi) or abatacept are as effective as rituximab in patients with RA who have failed an initial TNFi drug. METHODS/DESIGN SWITCH is a pragmatic, phase IV, multi-centre, parallel-group design, open-label, randomised, controlled trial (RCT) comparing alternative-mechanism-TNFi and abatacept with rituximab in patients with RA who have failed an initial TNFi drug. Participants are randomised in a 1:1:1 ratio to receive alternative mechanism TNFi, (monoclonal antibodies: infliximab, adalimumab, certolizumab or golimumab or the receptor fusion protein, etanercept), abatacept or rituximab during the interventional phase (from randomisation up to week 48). Participants are subsequently followed up to a maximum of 96 weeks, which constitutes the observational phase. The primary objective is to establish whether an alternative-mechanism-TNFi or abatacept are non-inferior to rituximab in terms of disease response at 24 weeks post randomisation. The secondary objectives include the comparison of alternative-mechanism-TNFi and abatacept to rituximab in terms of disease response, quality of life, toxicity, safety and structural and bone density outcomes over a 12-month period (48 weeks) and to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of switching patients to alternative active therapies compared to current practice. DISCUSSION SWITCH is a well-designed trial in this therapeutic area that aims to develop a rational treatment algorithm to potentially inform personalised treatment regimens (as opposed to switching all patients to only one available (and possibly unsuccessful) therapy), which may lead to long-term improved patient outcomes and gains in population health. TRIAL REGISTRATION UKCRN Portfolio ID: 12343; ISRCTN89222125 ; NCT01295151.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nuria C Navarro Coy
- Leeds Institute of Rheumatic and Musculoskeletal Medicine, University of Leeds, 2nd Floor, Chapel Allerton Hospital, Leeds, LS7 4SA, UK.
- NIHR Leeds Musculoskeletal Biomedical Research Unit, Chapel Allerton Hospital, Leeds Teaching Hospitals Trust, Leeds, LS7 4SA, UK.
| | - Sarah Brown
- Clinical Trials Research Unit, Leeds Institute of Clinical Trials Research, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK.
| | - Ailsa Bosworth
- National Rheumatoid Arthritis Society (NRAS), Maidenhead, Berkshire, SL6 3RT, UK.
| | - Claire T Davies
- Clinical Trials Research Unit, Leeds Institute of Clinical Trials Research, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK.
| | - Paul Emery
- Leeds Institute of Rheumatic and Musculoskeletal Medicine, University of Leeds, 2nd Floor, Chapel Allerton Hospital, Leeds, LS7 4SA, UK.
- NIHR Leeds Musculoskeletal Biomedical Research Unit, Chapel Allerton Hospital, Leeds Teaching Hospitals Trust, Leeds, LS7 4SA, UK.
| | - Colin C Everett
- Clinical Trials Research Unit, Leeds Institute of Clinical Trials Research, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK.
| | - Catherine Fernandez
- Clinical Trials Research Unit, Leeds Institute of Clinical Trials Research, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK.
| | - Janine C Gray
- Clinical Trials Research Unit, Leeds Institute of Clinical Trials Research, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK.
| | - Suzanne Hartley
- Clinical Trials Research Unit, Leeds Institute of Clinical Trials Research, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK.
| | - Claire Hulme
- Academic Unit of Health Economics, Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9LJ, UK.
| | - Anne-Maree Keenan
- Leeds Institute of Rheumatic and Musculoskeletal Medicine, University of Leeds, 2nd Floor, Chapel Allerton Hospital, Leeds, LS7 4SA, UK.
- NIHR Leeds Musculoskeletal Biomedical Research Unit, Chapel Allerton Hospital, Leeds Teaching Hospitals Trust, Leeds, LS7 4SA, UK.
| | | | - Anthony Redmond
- Leeds Institute of Rheumatic and Musculoskeletal Medicine, University of Leeds, 2nd Floor, Chapel Allerton Hospital, Leeds, LS7 4SA, UK.
- NIHR Leeds Musculoskeletal Biomedical Research Unit, Chapel Allerton Hospital, Leeds Teaching Hospitals Trust, Leeds, LS7 4SA, UK.
| | - Catherine Reynolds
- Clinical Trials Research Unit, Leeds Institute of Clinical Trials Research, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK.
| | - David Scott
- School of Medicine, University of East Anglia, Norfolk, NR4 7QN, UK.
| | - Linda D Sharples
- Clinical Trials Research Unit, Leeds Institute of Clinical Trials Research, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK.
| | - Sue Pavitt
- Centre for Health Sciences Research, Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9LJ, UK.
| | - Maya H Buch
- Leeds Institute of Rheumatic and Musculoskeletal Medicine, University of Leeds, 2nd Floor, Chapel Allerton Hospital, Leeds, LS7 4SA, UK.
- NIHR Leeds Musculoskeletal Biomedical Research Unit, Chapel Allerton Hospital, Leeds Teaching Hospitals Trust, Leeds, LS7 4SA, UK.
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45
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Benaglia T, Jackson CH, Sharples LD. Survival extrapolation in the presence of cause specific hazards. Stat Med 2014; 34:796-811. [PMID: 25413028 PMCID: PMC4847642 DOI: 10.1002/sim.6375] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/03/2013] [Revised: 06/27/2014] [Accepted: 10/20/2014] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Abstract
Health economic evaluations require estimates of expected survival from patients receiving different interventions, often over a lifetime. However, data on the patients of interest are typically only available for a much shorter follow‐up time, from randomised trials or cohorts. Previous work showed how to use general population mortality to improve extrapolations of the short‐term data, assuming a constant additive or multiplicative effect on the hazards for all‐cause mortality for study patients relative to the general population. A more plausible assumption may be a constant effect on the hazard for the specific cause of death targeted by the treatments. To address this problem, we use independent parametric survival models for cause‐specific mortality among the general population. Because causes of death are unobserved for the patients of interest, a polyhazard model is used to express their all‐cause mortality as a sum of latent cause‐specific hazards. Assuming proportional cause‐specific hazards between the general and study populations then allows us to extrapolate mortality of the patients of interest to the long term. A Bayesian framework is used to jointly model all sources of data. By simulation, we show that ignoring cause‐specific hazards leads to biased estimates of mean survival when the proportion of deaths due to the cause of interest changes through time. The methods are applied to an evaluation of implantable cardioverter defibrillators for the prevention of sudden cardiac death among patients with cardiac arrhythmia. After accounting for cause‐specific mortality, substantial differences are seen in estimates of life years gained from implantable cardioverter defibrillators. © 2014 The Authors Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tatiana Benaglia
- Department of Statistics, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Sao Paulo, Brazil
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46
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Rintoul RC, Ritchie AJ, Edwards JG, Waller DA, Coonar AS, Bennett M, Lovato E, Hughes V, Fox-Rushby JA, Sharples LD. Efficacy and cost of video-assisted thoracoscopic partial pleurectomy versus talc pleurodesis in patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma (MesoVATS): an open-label, randomised, controlled trial. Lancet 2014; 384:1118-27. [PMID: 24942631 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(14)60418-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 141] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Malignant pleural mesothelioma incidence continues to rise, with few available evidence-based therapeutic options. Results of previous non-randomised studies suggested that video-assisted thoracoscopic partial pleurectomy (VAT-PP) might improve symptom control and survival. We aimed to compare efficacy in terms of overall survival, and cost, of VAT-PP and talc pleurodesis in patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma. METHODS We undertook an open-label, parallel-group, randomised, controlled trial in patients aged 18 years or older with any subtype of confirmed or suspected mesothelioma with pleural effusion, recruited from 12 hospitals in the UK. Eligible patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to either VAT-PP or talc pleurodesis by computer-generated random numbers, stratified by European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer risk category (high vs low). The primary outcome was overall survival at 1 year, analysed by intention to treat (all patients randomly assigned to a treatment group with a final diagnosis of mesothelioma). This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00821860. FINDINGS Between Oct 24, 2003, and Jan 24, 2012, we randomly assigned 196 patients, of whom 175 (88 assigned to talc pleurodesis, 87 assigned to VAT-PP) had confirmed mesothelioma. Overall survival at 1 year was 52% (95% CI 41-62) in the VAT-PP group and 57% (46-66) in the talc pleurodesis group (hazard ratio 1·04 [95% CI 0·76-1·42]; p=0·81). Surgical complications were significantly more common after VAT-PP than after talc pleurodesis, occurring in 24 (31%) of 78 patients who completed VAT-PP versus ten (14%) of 73 patients who completed talc pleurodesis (p=0·019), as were respiratory complications (19 [24%] vs 11 [15%]; p=0·22) and air-leak beyond 10 days (five [6%] vs one [1%]; p=0·21), although not significantly so. Median hospital stay was longer at 7 days (IQR 5-11) in patients who received VAT-PP compared with 3 days (2-5) for those who received talc pleurodesis (p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION VAT-PP is not recommended to improve overall survival in patients with pleural effusion due to malignant pleural mesothelioma, and talc pleurodesis might be preferable considering the fewer complications and shorter hospital stay associated with this treatment. FUNDING BUPA Foundation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robert C Rintoul
- Department of Thoracic Oncology, Papworth Hospital, Cambridge, UK
| | | | - John G Edwards
- Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Northern General Hospital, Sheffield, UK
| | - David A Waller
- Department of Thoracic Surgery, Glenfield Hospital, Leicester, UK
| | - Aman S Coonar
- Department of Thoracic Surgery, Papworth Hospital, Cambridge, UK
| | | | - Eleonora Lovato
- Health Economics Research Group, Brunel University, Uxbridge, UK
| | - Victoria Hughes
- Department of Thoracic Oncology, Papworth Hospital, Cambridge, UK
| | | | - Linda D Sharples
- Department of Thoracic Oncology, Papworth Hospital, Cambridge, UK; MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge, UK; Clinical Trials Research Unit, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
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47
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O'Keeffe AG, Geneletti S, Baio G, Sharples LD, Nazareth I, Petersen I. Regression discontinuity designs: an approach to the evaluation of treatment efficacy in primary care using observational data. BMJ 2014; 349:g5293. [PMID: 25199521 DOI: 10.1136/bmj.g5293] [Citation(s) in RCA: 96] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Aidan G O'Keeffe
- Department of Statistical Science, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK a.o'
| | - Sara Geneletti
- Department of Statistics, Columbia House, London School of Economics, London WC2A 2AE, UK
| | - Gianluca Baio
- Department of Statistical Science, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK
| | - Linda D Sharples
- Leeds Clinical Trials Research Unit, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
| | - Irwin Nazareth
- Department of Primary Care and Population Health, University College London, UCL Royal Free Campus, London NW3 2PF, UK
| | - Irene Petersen
- Department of Primary Care and Population Health, University College London, UCL Royal Free Campus, London NW3 2PF, UK
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48
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Quinnell TG, Bennett M, Jordan J, Clutterbuck-James AL, Davies MG, Smith IE, Oscroft N, Pittman MA, Cameron M, Chadwick R, Morrell MJ, Glover MJ, Fox-Rushby JA, Sharples LD. A crossover randomised controlled trial of oral mandibular advancement devices for obstructive sleep apnoea-hypopnoea (TOMADO). Thorax 2014; 69:938-45. [PMID: 25035126 DOI: 10.1136/thoraxjnl-2014-205464] [Citation(s) in RCA: 60] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Abstract
RATIONALE Mandibular advancement devices (MADs) are used to treat obstructive sleep apnoea-hypopnoea syndrome (OSAHS) but evidence is lacking regarding their clinical and cost-effectiveness in less severe disease. OBJECTIVES To compare clinical- and cost-effectiveness of a range of MADs against no treatment in mild to moderate OSAHS. MEASUREMENTS AND METHODS This open-label, randomised, controlled, crossover trial was undertaken at a UK sleep centre. Adults with Apnoea-Hypopnoea Index (AHI) 5-<30/h and Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) score ≥9 underwent 6 weeks of treatment with three non-adjustable MADs: self-moulded (SleepPro 1; SP1); semi-bespoke (SleepPro 2; SP2); fully-bespoke MAD (bMAD); and 4 weeks no treatment. Primary outcome was AHI scored by a polysomnographer blinded to treatment. Secondary outcomes included ESS, quality of life, resource use and cost. MAIN RESULTS 90 patients were randomised and 83 were analysed. All devices reduced AHI compared with no treatment by 26% (95% CI 11% to 38%, p=0.001) for SP1, 33% (95% CI 24% to 41%) for SP2 and 36% (95% CI 24% to 45%, p<0.001) for bMAD. ESS was 1.51 (95% CI 0.73 to 2.29, p<0.001, SP1) to 2.37 (95% CI 1.53 to 3.22, p<0.001, bMAD) lower than no treatment (p<0.001 for all). Compliance was lower for SP1, which was the least preferred treatment at trial exit. All devices were cost-effective compared with no treatment at a £20,000/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) threshold. SP2 was the most cost-effective up to £39,800/QALY. CONCLUSIONS Non-adjustable MADs achieve clinically important improvements in mild to moderate OSAHS and are cost-effective. Of those trialled, the semi-bespoke MAD is an appropriate first choice. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER ISRCTN02309506.
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Affiliation(s)
- Timothy G Quinnell
- Respiratory Support and Sleep Centre, Papworth Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Cambridge, UK
| | - Maxine Bennett
- Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit, Institute of Public Health, University Forvie Site, Cambridge, UK
| | - Jake Jordan
- Health Economics Research Group, Brunel University, Uxbridge, Middlesex, UK
| | | | - Michael G Davies
- Respiratory Support and Sleep Centre, Papworth Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Cambridge, UK
| | - Ian E Smith
- Respiratory Support and Sleep Centre, Papworth Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Cambridge, UK
| | - Nicholas Oscroft
- Respiratory Support and Sleep Centre, Papworth Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Cambridge, UK
| | - Marcus A Pittman
- Respiratory Support and Sleep Centre, Papworth Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Cambridge, UK
| | - Malcolm Cameron
- Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Addenbrooke's NHS Foundation Trust, Cambridge, UK
| | - Rebecca Chadwick
- Respiratory Support and Sleep Centre, Papworth Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Cambridge, UK
| | - Mary J Morrell
- National Heart & Lung Institute, Royal Brompton Campus, Imperial College, London, UK
| | - Matthew J Glover
- Health Economics Research Group, Brunel University, Uxbridge, Middlesex, UK
| | - Julia A Fox-Rushby
- Health Economics Research Group, Brunel University, Uxbridge, Middlesex, UK
| | - Linda D Sharples
- Respiratory Support and Sleep Centre, Papworth Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Cambridge, UK Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit, Institute of Public Health, University Forvie Site, Cambridge, UK Clinical Trials Research Unit, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
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49
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Rintoul RC, Ritchie AJ, Edwards JG, Waller DA, Coonar AS, Bennett M, Lovato E, Hughes V, Fox-Rushby JA, Sharples LD. Efficacy and cost of video-assisted thoracoscopic partial pleurectomy versus talc pleurodesis in patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma (MesoVATS): an open-label, randomised, controlled trial. Lancet 2014. [PMID: 24942631 DOI: 10.1016/sd140-6736(14)60418-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Malignant pleural mesothelioma incidence continues to rise, with few available evidence-based therapeutic options. Results of previous non-randomised studies suggested that video-assisted thoracoscopic partial pleurectomy (VAT-PP) might improve symptom control and survival. We aimed to compare efficacy in terms of overall survival, and cost, of VAT-PP and talc pleurodesis in patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma. METHODS We undertook an open-label, parallel-group, randomised, controlled trial in patients aged 18 years or older with any subtype of confirmed or suspected mesothelioma with pleural effusion, recruited from 12 hospitals in the UK. Eligible patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to either VAT-PP or talc pleurodesis by computer-generated random numbers, stratified by European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer risk category (high vs low). The primary outcome was overall survival at 1 year, analysed by intention to treat (all patients randomly assigned to a treatment group with a final diagnosis of mesothelioma). This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00821860. FINDINGS Between Oct 24, 2003, and Jan 24, 2012, we randomly assigned 196 patients, of whom 175 (88 assigned to talc pleurodesis, 87 assigned to VAT-PP) had confirmed mesothelioma. Overall survival at 1 year was 52% (95% CI 41-62) in the VAT-PP group and 57% (46-66) in the talc pleurodesis group (hazard ratio 1·04 [95% CI 0·76-1·42]; p=0·81). Surgical complications were significantly more common after VAT-PP than after talc pleurodesis, occurring in 24 (31%) of 78 patients who completed VAT-PP versus ten (14%) of 73 patients who completed talc pleurodesis (p=0·019), as were respiratory complications (19 [24%] vs 11 [15%]; p=0·22) and air-leak beyond 10 days (five [6%] vs one [1%]; p=0·21), although not significantly so. Median hospital stay was longer at 7 days (IQR 5-11) in patients who received VAT-PP compared with 3 days (2-5) for those who received talc pleurodesis (p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION VAT-PP is not recommended to improve overall survival in patients with pleural effusion due to malignant pleural mesothelioma, and talc pleurodesis might be preferable considering the fewer complications and shorter hospital stay associated with this treatment. FUNDING BUPA Foundation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robert C Rintoul
- Department of Thoracic Oncology, Papworth Hospital, Cambridge, UK
| | | | - John G Edwards
- Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Northern General Hospital, Sheffield, UK
| | - David A Waller
- Department of Thoracic Surgery, Glenfield Hospital, Leicester, UK
| | - Aman S Coonar
- Department of Thoracic Surgery, Papworth Hospital, Cambridge, UK
| | | | - Eleonora Lovato
- Health Economics Research Group, Brunel University, Uxbridge, UK
| | - Victoria Hughes
- Department of Thoracic Oncology, Papworth Hospital, Cambridge, UK
| | | | - Linda D Sharples
- Department of Thoracic Oncology, Papworth Hospital, Cambridge, UK; MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge, UK; Clinical Trials Research Unit, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
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50
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Kosmoliaptsis V, Gjorgjimajkoska O, Sharples LD, Chaudhry AN, Chatzizacharias N, Peacock S, Torpey N, Bolton EM, Taylor CJ, Bradley JA. Impact of donor mismatches at individual HLA-A, -B, -C, -DR, and -DQ loci on the development of HLA-specific antibodies in patients listed for repeat renal transplantation. Kidney Int 2014; 86:1039-48. [PMID: 24717292 DOI: 10.1038/ki.2014.106] [Citation(s) in RCA: 52] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/05/2013] [Revised: 01/31/2014] [Accepted: 02/13/2014] [Indexed: 12/22/2022]
Abstract
We have analyzed the relationship between donor mismatches at each HLA locus and development of HLA locus-specific antibodies in patients listed for repeat transplantation. HLA antibody screening was undertaken using single-antigen beads in 131 kidney transplant recipients returning to the transplant waiting list following first graft failure. The number of HLA mismatches and the calculated reaction frequency of antibody reactivity against 10,000 consecutive deceased organ donors were determined for each HLA locus. Two-thirds of patients awaiting repeat transplantation were sensitized (calculated reaction frequency over 15%) and half were highly sensitized (calculated reaction frequency of 85% and greater). Antibody levels peaked after re-listing for repeat transplantation, were independent of graft nephrectomy and were associated with length of time on the waiting list (odds ratio 8.4) and with maintenance on dual immunosuppression (odds ratio 0.2). Sensitization was independently associated with increasing number of donor HLA mismatches (odds ratio 1.4). All mismatched HLA loci contributed to the development of HLA locus-specific antibodies (HLA-A: odds ratio 3.2, HLA-B: odds ratio 3.4, HLA-C: odds ratio 2.5, HLA-DRB1: odds ratio 3.5, HLA-DRB3/4/5: odds ratio 3.9, and HLA-DQ: odds ratio 3.0 (all significant)). Thus, the risk of allosensitization following failure of a first renal transplant increases incrementally with the number of mismatches at all HLA loci assessed. Maintenance of re-listed patients on dual immunosuppression was associated with a reduced risk of sensitization.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vasilios Kosmoliaptsis
- Department of Surgery, University of Cambridge, Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge, UK
| | - Olivera Gjorgjimajkoska
- Department of Surgery, University of Cambridge, Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge, UK
| | - Linda D Sharples
- MRC Biostatistics Unit, Institute of Public Health, Cambridge, UK
| | - Afzal N Chaudhry
- Department of Renal Medicine, Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge, UK
| | - Nikolaos Chatzizacharias
- Department of Surgery, University of Cambridge, Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge, UK
| | - Sarah Peacock
- Histocompatibility and Immunogenetics Laboratory, Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge, UK
| | - Nicholas Torpey
- Department of Renal Medicine, Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge, UK
| | - Eleanor M Bolton
- Department of Surgery, University of Cambridge, Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge, UK
| | - Craig J Taylor
- Histocompatibility and Immunogenetics Laboratory, Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge, UK
| | - J Andrew Bradley
- Department of Surgery, University of Cambridge, Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge, UK
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