Uncertainty about predation risk: a conceptual review

Uncertainty has long been of interest to economists and psychologists and has more recently gained attention among ecologists. In the ecological world, animals must regularly make decisions related to finding resources and avoiding threats. Here, we describe uncertainty as a perceptual phenomenon of decision-makers, and we focus specifically on the functional ecology of such uncertainty regarding predation risk. Like all uncertainty, uncertainty about predation risk reflects informational limitations. When cues are available, they may be novel (i.e. unknown information), incomplete, unreliable, overly abundant and complex, or conflicting. We review recent studies that have used these informational limitations to induce uncertainty of predation risk. These studies have typically used either over-responses to novelty (i.e. neophobia) or memory attenuation as proxies for measuring uncertainty. Because changes in the environment, particularly unpredictable changes, drive informational limitations, we describe studies assessing unpredictable variance in spatio-temporal predation risk, intensity of predation risk, predator encounter rate, and predator diversity. We also highlight anthropogenic changes within habitats that are likely to have dramatic impacts on information availability and thus uncertainty in antipredator decisions in the modern world.

Microhabitat conditions drive uncertainty of risk and shape neophobic responses in Trinidadian guppies, Poecilia reticulata

In response to uncertain risks, prey may rely on neophobic phenotypes to reduce the costs associated with the lack of information regarding local conditions. Neophobia has been shown to be driven by information reliability, ambient risk and predator diversity, all of which shape uncertainty of risk. We similarly expect environmental conditions to shape uncertainty by interfering with information availability. In order to test how environmental variables might shape neophobic responses in Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata), we conducted an in situ field experiment of two high-predation risk guppy populations designed to determine how the 'average' and 'variance' of several environmental factors might influence the neophobic response to novel predator models and/or novel foraging patches. Our results suggest neophobia is shaped by water velocity, microhabitat complexity, pool width and depth, as well as substrate diversity and heterogeneity. Moreover, we found differential effects of the 'average' and 'variance' environmental variables on food- and predator-related neophobia. Our study highlights that assessment of neophobic drivers should consider predation risk, various microhabitat conditions and neophobia being tested. Neophobic phenotypes are expected to increase the probability of prey survival and reproductive success (i.e. fitness), and are therefore likely linked to population health and species survival. Understanding the drivers and consequences of uncertainty of risk is an increasingly pressing issue, as ecological uncertainty increases with the combined effects of climate change, anthropogenic disturbances and invasive species.

Assessing effects of predator density and diversity on neophobia in Trinidadian guppies

Neophobic predator avoidance, where prey actively avoid novel stimuli, is thought to allow prey to cope with the inability to predict predation risk (i.e. uncertainty) while reducing the costs associated with learning. Recent studies suggest that neophobia is elicited as a response to unpredictable and elevated mean predation risk, and is linked to experience with diverse novel cues. However, no research has disentangled the effects of predator density and diversity on neophobia. We conditioned Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata) to high- or low-diversity predator model treatments paired with high, intermediate, or low concentrations of conspecific alarm cues as a proxy for predator density. We tested behavioural responses to a novel stimulus vs. a water control to determine differences in neophobia among treatments. We found that neophobic shoaling behaviour was shaped by mean risk (predator density). However both density and diversity shaped neophobic freezing, and to a weaker extent, neophobic area use. Our research suggests that predator diversity might elicit neophobic responses in guppies, but only when mean risk is high enough. The relationship between neophobia and components of predation risk is becoming increasingly relevant as ecological uncertainty becomes more prevalent with increasing climate change, anthropogenic impacts, and invasive species.

Exploratory decisions of Trinidadian guppies when uncertain about predation risk

Animals can reduce their uncertainty of predation risk by gathering new information via exploration behaviour. However, a decision to explore may also be costly due to increased predator exposure. Here, we found contextual effects of predation risk on the exploratory activity of Trinidadian guppies Poecilia reticulata in a novel environment. First, guppies were exposed to a 3-day period of either high or low background predation risk in the form of repeated exposure to either injured conspecific cues (i.e. alarm cues) or control water, respectively. A day later, guppies were moved into a testing arena with limited visual information due to structural barriers and were then presented with an acute chemical stimulus, either alarm cues (a known and reliable indicator of risk), a novel odour (an ambiguous cue), or control water. In the presence of control water, guppies from high and low background risk showed a similar willingness to explore the arena. However, high-risk individuals significantly reduced their spatial evenness, although not their movement latency, in the presence of both the alarm and novel cues. When these high-risk individuals were a member of a shoal, they became willing to explore the environment more evenly in the presence of alarm cues while remaining cautious toward the novel cue, indicating an effect of the greater uncertainty associated with the novel cue. In contrast, low-risk guppies showed a willingness to explore the arena regardless of acute threat or social context. Such contextual effects of background risk and social context highlight the complexity of exploratory decisions when uncertain.

Predation risk shapes the use of conflicting personal risk and social safety information in guppies

When faced with uncertainty, animals can benefit from using multiple sources of information in order to make an optimal decision. However, information sources (e.g., social and personal cues) may conflict, while also varying in acquisition cost and reliability. Here, we assessed behavioral decisions of Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata), in situ, when presented with conflicting social and personal information about predation risk. We positioned foraging arenas within high- and low-predation streams, where guppies were exposed to a personal cue in the form of conspecific alarm cues (a known indicator of risk), a novel cue, or a control. At the same time, a conspecific shoal (a social safety cue) was either present or absent. When social safety was absent, guppies in both populations showed typical avoidance responses towards alarm cues, and high-predation guppies showed their typical avoidance of novel cues (i.e., neophobia). However, the presence of social safety cues was persuasive, overriding the neophobia of high-predation guppies and emboldening low-predation guppies to ignore alarm cues. Our experiment is one of the first to empirically assess the use of safety and risk cues in prey and suggests a threshold level of ambient risk which dictates the use of conflicting social and personal information.

Disturbance cue communication is shaped by emitter diet and receiver background risk in Trinidadian guppies

In animal communication systems, individuals that detect a cue (i.e., “receivers”) are often influenced by characteristics of the cue emitter. For instance, in many species, receivers avoid chemical cues that are released by emitters experiencing disturbance. These chemical “disturbance cues” appear to benefit receivers by warning them about nearby danger, such as a predator’s approach. While the active ingredients in disturbance cues have been largely unexplored, by-products of metabolized protein are thought to play a role for some species. If so, the content (quality) and volume (quantity) of the emitter’s diet should affect their disturbance cues, thus altering how receivers perceive the cues and respond. Guppies Poecilia reticulata are a species known to discriminate among disturbance cues from different types of donors, but dietary variation has yet to be explored. In this study, we found evidence that diet quality and quantity can affect disturbance cues released by guppy emitters (i.e., experimental “donors”). Receivers discriminated between donor cue treatments, responding more strongly to cues from donors fed a protein-rich bloodworm diet (Experiment 1), as well as an overall larger diet (Experiment 2). We also found that receivers exposed to higher background risk were more sensitive to disturbance cue variation, with the strongest avoidance responses displayed by high-risk receivers toward disturbance cues from donors fed the high-quality diet. Therefore, diet, and perhaps protein specifically, affects either the concentration or composition of disturbance cues released by guppies. Such variation may be important in information signaling in social species like the guppy.

Sender and receiver experience alters the response of fish to disturbance cues

Predation is a pervasive selection pressure, shaping morphological, physiological, and behavioral phenotypes of prey species. Recent studies have begun to examine how the effects of individual experience with predation risk shapes the use of publicly available risk assessment cues. Here, we investigated the effects of prior predation risk experience on disturbance cue production and use by Trinidadian guppies Poecilia reticulata under laboratory conditions. In our first experiment, we demonstrate that the response of guppies from a high predation population (Lopinot River) was dependent upon the source of disturbance cue senders (high vs. low predation populations). However, guppies collected from a low predation site (Upper Aripo River) exhibited similar responses to disturbance cues, regardless of the sender population. In our second experiment, we used laboratory strain guppies exposed to high versus low background risk conditions. Our results show an analogous response patterns as shown for our first experiment. Guppies exposed to high background risk conditions exhibited stronger responses to the disturbance cues collected from senders exposed to high (vs. low) risk conditions and guppies exposed to low risk conditions were not influenced by sender experience. Combined, our results suggest that experience with background predation risk significantly impacts both the production of and response to disturbance cues in guppies.