Association between the proportion of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infections detected by passive surveillance and the magnitude of the asymptomatic reservoir in the community: a pooled analysis of paired health facility and community data

BACKGROUND

Passively collected malaria case data are the foundation for public health decision making. However, because of population-level immunity, infections might not always be sufficiently symptomatic to prompt individuals to seek care. Understanding the proportion of all Plasmodium spp infections expected to be detected by the health system becomes particularly paramount in elimination settings. The aim of this study was to determine the association between the proportion of infections detected and transmission intensity for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax in several global endemic settings.

METHODS

The proportion of infections detected in routine malaria data, P(Detect), was derived from paired household cross-sectional survey and routinely collected malaria data within health facilities. P(Detect) was estimated using a Bayesian model in 431 clusters spanning the Americas, Africa, and Asia. The association between P(Detect) and malaria prevalence was assessed using log-linear regression models. Changes in P(Detect) over time were evaluated using data from 13 timepoints over 2 years from The Gambia.

FINDINGS

The median estimated P(Detect) across all clusters was 12·5% (IQR 5·3-25·0) for P falciparum and 10·1% (5·0-18·3) for P vivax and decreased as the estimated log-PCR community prevalence increased (adjusted odds ratio [OR] for P falciparum 0·63, 95% CI 0·57-0·69; adjusted OR for P vivax 0·52, 0·47-0·57). Factors associated with increasing P(Detect) included smaller catchment population size, high transmission season, improved care-seeking behaviour by infected individuals, and recent increases (within the previous year) in transmission intensity.

INTERPRETATION

The proportion of all infections detected within health systems increases once transmission intensity is sufficiently low. The likely explanation for P falciparum is that reduced exposure to infection leads to lower levels of protective immunity in the population, increasing the likelihood that infected individuals will become symptomatic and seek care. These factors might also be true for P vivax but a better understanding of the transmission biology is needed to attribute likely reasons for the observed trend. In low transmission and pre-elimination settings, enhancing access to care and improvements in care-seeking behaviour of infected individuals will lead to an increased proportion of infections detected in the community and might contribute to accelerating the interruption of transmission.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust.

Assessment of subpatent Plasmodium infection in northwestern Ethiopia

Background

Ethiopia has set a goal for malaria elimination by 2030. Low parasite density infections may go undetected by conventional diagnostic methods (microscopy and rapid diagnostic tests) and their contribution to malaria transmission varies by transmission settings. This study quantified the burden of subpatent infections from samples collected from three regions of northwest Ethiopia.

Methods

Sub-samples of dried blood spots from the Ethiopian Malaria Indicator Survey 2015 (EMIS-2015) were tested and compared using microscopy, rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), and nested polymerase chain reaction (nPCR) to determine the prevalence of subpatent infection. Paired seroprevalence results previously reported along with gender, age, and elevation of residence were explored as risk factors for Plasmodium infection.

Results

Of the 2608 samples collected, the highest positive rate for Plasmodium infection was found with nPCR 3.3% (95% CI 2.7–4.1) compared with RDT 2.8% (95% CI 2.2–3.5) and microscopy 1.2% (95% CI 0.8–1.7). Of the nPCR positive cases, Plasmodium falciparum accounted for 3.1% (95% CI 2.5–3.8), Plasmodium vivax 0.4% (95% CI 0.2–0.7), mixed P. falciparum and P. vivax 0.1% (95% CI 0.0–0.4), and mixed P. falciparum and Plasmodium malariae 0.1% (95% CI 0.0–0.3). nPCR detected an additional 30 samples that had not been detected by conventional methods. The majority of the nPCR positive cases (61% (53/87)) were from the Benishangul-Gumuz Region. Malaria seropositivity had significant association with nPCR positivity [adjusted OR 10.0 (95% CI 3.2–29.4), P < 0.001].

Conclusion

Using nPCR the detection rate of malaria parasites increased by nearly threefold over rates based on microscopy in samples collected during a national cross-sectional survey in 2015 in Ethiopia. Such subpatent infections might contribute to malaria transmission. In addition to strengthening routine surveillance systems, malaria programmes may need to consider low-density, subpatent infections in order to accelerate malaria elimination efforts.

Seasonal malaria chemoprevention: successes and missed opportunities

Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) was recommended in 2012 for young children in the Sahel during the peak malaria transmission season. Children are given a single dose of sulfadoxine/pyrimethamine combined with a 3-day course of amodiaquine, once a month for up to 4 months. Roll-out and scale-up of SMC has been impressive, with 12 million children receiving the intervention in 2016. There is evidence of its overall benefit in routine implementation settings, and a meta-analysis of clinical trial data showed a 75% decrease in clinical malaria compared to placebo. SMC is not free of shortcomings. Its target zone includes many hard-to-reach areas, both because of poor infrastructure and because of political instability. Treatment adherence to a 3-day course of preventive treatment has not been fully documented, and could prove challenging. As SMC is scaled up, integration into a broader, community-based paradigm which includes other preventive and curative activities may prove beneficial, both for health systems and for recipients.

Enteric fever burden in North Jakarta, Indonesia: a prospective, community-based study

Introduction: We undertook a prospective community-based study in North Jakarta, Indonesia, to determine the incidence, clinical characteristics, seasonality, etiologic agent, and antimicrobial susceptibility pattern of enteric fever. Methodology: Following a census, treatment centre-based surveillance for febrile illness was conducted for two-years. Clinical data and a blood culture were obtained from each patient. Results: In a population of 160,261, we detected 296 laboratory-confirmed enteric fever cases during the surveillance period, of which 221 (75%) were typhoid fever and 75 (25%)  were paratyphoid fever.  The overall incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid cases was 1.4, and 0.5 per thousand populations per year, respectively. Although the incidence of febrile episodes evaluated was highest among children under 5 years of age at 92.6 per thousand persons per year, we found that the burden of typhoid fever was greatest among children between 5 and 20 years of age. Paratyphoid fever occurred most commonly in children and was infrequent in adults. Conclusion: Enteric fever is a public health problem in North Jakarta with a substantial proportion due to paratyphoid fever. The results highlight the need for control strategies against enteric fever.

G6PD testing in support of treatment and elimination of malaria: recommendations for evaluation of G6PD tests

Malaria elimination will be possible only with serious attempts to address asymptomatic infection and chronic infection by both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax. Currently available drugs that can completely clear a human of P. vivax (known as "radical cure"), and that can reduce transmission of malaria parasites, are those in the 8-aminoquinoline drug family, such as primaquine. Unfortunately, people with glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency risk having severe adverse reactions if exposed to these drugs at certain doses. G6PD deficiency is the most common human enzyme defect, affecting approximately 400 million people worldwide.Scaling up radical cure regimens will require testing for G6PD deficiency, at two levels: 1) the individual level to ensure safe case management, and 2) the population level to understand the risk in the local population to guide Plasmodium vivax treatment policy. Several technical and operational knowledge gaps must be addressed to expand access to G6PD deficiency testing and to ensure that a patient's G6PD status is known before deciding to administer an 8-aminoquinoline-based drug.In this report from a stakeholder meeting held in Thailand on October 4 and 5, 2012, G6PD testing in support of radical cure is discussed in detail. The focus is on challenges to the development and evaluation of G6PD diagnostic tests, and on challenges related to the operational aspects of implementing G6PD testing in support of radical cure. The report also describes recommendations for evaluation of diagnostic tests for G6PD deficiency in support of radical cure.

Epidemiology, clinical presentation, and patterns of drug resistance of Salmonella Typhi in Karachi, Pakistan

Introduction: Enteric fever remains a major public health problem in Asia. Planning appropriate preventive measures such as immunization requires a clear understanding of disease burden. We conducted a community-based surveillance for Salmonella Typhi infection in children in Karachi, Pakistan. Methodology: A de jure household census was conducted at baseline in the study setting to enumerate all individuals. A health-care facility-based passive surveillance system was used to capture episodes of fever lasting three or more 3 days in children 2 to 16 years old. Results: A total of 7,401 blood samples were collected for microbiological confirmation, out of which 189 S. Typhi and 32 S. Paratyphi A isolates were identified with estimated annual incidences of 451/100,000 (95% CI: 446 – 457) and 76/100,000 (95% CI: 74 – 78) respectively. At the time of presentation, after adjusting for age, there was an association between the duration of fever and temperature at presentation, and being infected with multidrug-resistant S. Typhi. Of 189 isolates 83 were found to be resistant to first-line antimicrobial therapy. There was no statistically significant difference in clinical presentation of blood culture sensitive and resistant S. Typhi isolates. Conclusion: Incidence of S. Typhi in children is high in urban squatter settlements of Karachi, Pakistan. Findings from this study identified duration of fever and temperature at the time of presentation as important symptoms associated with blood culture-confirmed typhoid fever. Preventive strategies such as immunization and improvements in water and sanitation conditions should be the focus of typhoid control in urban settlements of Pakistan.

Challenges in malaria control in sub-Saharan Africa: the vaccine perspective

Malaria is a life-threatening disease of public health importance, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. It is estimated that about 500 million cases of malaria occur annually and among these 1 million die annually. Children below five years and pregnant women are the most vulnerable groups. Several malaria control measures have been applied such as environmental improvements, use of insecticide impregnated nets, residual indoor spraying, early case detection and treatment with effective antimalarial drugs. However, the adaptation of vector and parasite has so far limited the effect of these interventions. The emergence of resistance against drugs and insecticides requires in response a steady stream of new interventions. Up to the beginning of this millennium, most sub-Saharan African countries have been using chloroquine (CQ) as the first-line antimalarial drug, which had to be replaced with sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) after resistant parasites had rendered CQ ineffective. Currently the first line treatment of malaria consists of combination therapy which includes an artemisinin derivative. The current approach appears robust but history has taught us to be alert and to expect resistance to emerge. There is a pressing need to develop and deploy complimentary strategies. Adding a protective vaccine to the existing control tools for malaria holds great promise yet no malaria vaccine has ever been licensed despite a large number of attempts. The complexity of malaria parasites and the ability of the parasite to suppress and evade immune responses are formidable challenges. Fortunately, there are several promising antimalarial vaccine candidates in the development pipeline. The most promising vaccine candidate is RTSS which is currently tested in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa, including two sites in Tanzania. There is a hope that malaria vaccines could be developed and deployed in malaria endemic communities. This article highlights the challenges of developing and deploying malaria vaccines.

Evaluation of new-generation serologic tests for the diagnosis of typhoid fever: data from a community-based surveillance in Calcutta, India

Although typhoid fever is confirmed by culture of Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi, rapid and simple diagnostic serologic tests would be useful in developing countries. We examined the performance of Widal test in a community field site and compared it with Typhidot and Tubex tests for diagnosis of typhoid fever. Blood samples were collected from 6697 patients with fever for > or =3 days for microscopy, culture, and serologic testing and from randomly selected 172 consenting healthy individuals to assess the baseline Widal anti-Typhi O lipopolysaccharide antibody (anti-TO) and anti-Typhi H flagellar antibody (anti-TH) titers. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of the 3 serologic tests were calculated using culture-confirmed typhoid fever cases as "true positives" and paratyphoid fever and malaria cases as "true negatives". Comparing cutoff values for the Widal test, an anti-TO titer of 1/80 was optimal with 58% sensitivity, 85% specificity, 69% PPV, and 77% NPV. Sensitivity was increased to 67% when the Widal test was done on the 5th day of illness and thereafter. The sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of Typhidot and Tubex were not better than Widal test. There is a need for more efficient rapid diagnostic test for typhoid fever especially during the acute stage of the disease. Until then, culture remains the method of choice.

Health care utilization for diarrhea and fever in 4 urban slums in Karachi

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the fraction of fever and diarrhea patients making use of private practitioners, self-treatment, hospital care, drug vendors, community health centers and traditional healers.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional survey.

PLACE AND DURATION OF STUDY

Four slums in and around Karachi during October and November, 2001.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A sample of 1842 households was selected with probability proportional to size of the slum. The household head or a representative was asked regarding the treatment providers for diarrhea and cases of fever persistent for 3 days or more. Only households with an actual case of fever and/or diarrhea were included in the analysis.

RESULTS

The study found that more than half of diarrhea and fever cases are seen by private practitioners. Self medication with medicines available in the home or specifically purchased for the disease episode from a drug vendor combined provides 13% to 18% of health care. Only between 11% and 13% of patients are seen by the public sector, hospitals and community health centers. There was no significant difference between the choice of health care provider for diarrhea and fever cases.

CONCLUSION

In this survey, the majority of fever and diarrhea patients presented first to private practitioners and not to drug vendors or the public sector. Successful passive surveillance of febrile or diarrheal illness in these communities has to integrate private practitioners.

Occurrence of shigellosis in the young and elderly in rural China: results of a 12-month population-based surveillance study

In 2002, population- and treatment center-based surveillance was used to study the disease burden of shigellosis in rural Hebei Province in the People's Republic of China. A total of 10,105 children with diarrhea or dysentery were enrolled. Infants were treated most frequently for diarrhea (1,388/1,000/year) followed by children < or = 5 years old (618/1,000/year). Shigellosis was treated most often in children 3-4 years old (32/1,000/year) and people > 60 years of age (7/1,000/year). Fifty-six percent (184 of 331) Shigella isolates were detected in patients who had non-bloody diarrhea. Shigella flexneri was identified in 93% of 306 isolates. The most common S. flexneri serotypes were 1a (34%), X (33%), and 2a (28%). More than 90% of the Shigella isolates were resistant to cotrimoxazole and nalidixic acid, but remained susceptible to ciprofloxacin, norfloxacin, and gentamicin. Widespread resistance to antibiotics adds urgency to the development and use of vaccines to control shigellosis.

Detection of Shigella by a PCR assay targeting the ipaH gene suggests increased prevalence of shigellosis in Nha Trang, Vietnam

Shigella spp. are exquisitely fastidious gram-negative organisms which frequently escape detection by traditional culture methods. To get a more complete understanding of the disease burden caused by Shigella in Nha Trang, Vietnam, real-time PCR was used to detect Shigella DNA. Randomly selected rectal swab specimens from 60 Shigella culture-positive patients and 500 Shigella culture-negative patients detected by population-based surveillance of patients seeking care for diarrhea were processed by real-time PCR. The target of the primer pair is the invasion plasmid antigen H gene sequence (ipaH), carried by all four Shigella species and enteroinvasive Escherichia coli. Shigella spp. could be isolated from the rectal swabs of 547 of 19,206 (3%) patients with diarrhea. IpaH was detected in 55 of 60 (93%) Shigella culture-positive specimens, whereas it was detected in 87 of 245 (36%) culture-negative patients free of dysentery (P < 0.001). The number of PCR cycles required to detect a PCR product was highest for culture-negative, nonbloody diarrheal specimens (mean number of cycles to detection, 36.6) and was lowest for children with culture-positive, bloody diarrheal specimens (mean number of cycles, 25.3) (P < 0.001). The data from real-time PCR amplification indicate that the culture-proven prevalence of Shigella among patients with diarrhea may underestimate the prevalence of Shigella infections. The clinical presentation of shigellosis may be directly related to the bacterial load.

Clinical, epidemiological, and socioeconomic analysis of an outbreak of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Khanh Hoa Province, Vietnam

From 1996 onward, a pandemic spread of Vibrio parahaemolyticus infections due to one clone has been reported in several Asian countries. During a population-based study that relied on passive surveillance, 548 cases of V. parahaemolyticus infection were detected between 1997 and 1999 in the Khanh Hoa province of Vietnam. Detection of cases of V. parahaemolyticus infection abruptly stopped in November 1999, although Vibrio species other than V. parahaemolyticus continued to be isolated throughout 2000. Of the infections, 90% occurred in individuals >5 years old; 53% of the patients presented with watery stools, and 6% reported blood in their stools. All patients had recovered by the time of discharge. A surprising risk factor for V. parahaemolyticus infections was high socioeconomic status. Like the interruption of the transmission of V. cholerae infections that had been observed earlier, the transmission of V. parahaemolyticus came to a halt without meteorological changes or changes in water supply and sanitation.