Estimating underdiagnosis of COVID-19 with nowcasting and machine learning

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the underdiagnosis of COVID-19 through nowcasting with machine learning in a Southern Brazilian capital city.

METHODS

Observational ecological design and data from 3916 notified cases of COVID-19 from April 14th to June 2nd, 2020 in Florianópolis, Brazil. A machine-learning algorithm was used to classify cases that had no diagnosis, producing the nowcast. To analyze the underdiagnosis, the difference between data without nowcasting and the median of the nowcasted projections for the entire period and for the six days from the date of onset of symptoms were compared.

RESULTS

The number of new cases throughout the entire period without nowcasting was 389. With nowcasting, it was 694 (95%CI 496-897). During the six-day period, the number without nowcasting was 19 and 104 (95%CI 60-142) with nowcasting. The underdiagnosis was 37.29% in the entire period and 81.73% in the six-day period. The underdiagnosis was more critical in the six days from the date of onset of symptoms to diagnosis before the data collection than in the entire period.

CONCLUSION

The use of nowcasting with machine learning techniques can help to estimate the number of new disease cases.

The potential spread of Covid-19 and government decision-making: a retrospective analysis in Florianópolis, Brazil

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the association between the transmission potential of SARS-CoV-2 and the decisions made by the municipal government of Florianópolis (Brazil) regarding social distancing.

METHODS

We analyzed new cases of COVID-19 identified in Florianópolis residents between February 1 and July 14, 2020, using a nowcasting approach. Decrees related to COVID-19 published in the Official Gazette of the Municipality between February 1 and July 14, 2020 were also analyzed. Based on the actions proposed in the decrees, whether they loosened social distancing measures, or increased or maintained existing restrictions, was analyzed, thus creating a Social Distancing Index. Time-dependent reproduction numbers (Rt) for a period of 14 days prior to each decree were calculated. A matrix was constructed associating the classification of each decree and the Rt values, analyzing the consonance or dissonance between the potential dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 and the actions of the decrees.

RESULTS

A total of 5,374 cases of COVID-19 and 26 decrees were analyzed. Nine decrees increased social distancing measures, nine maintained them, and eight loosened them. Of the 26 actions, 9 were consonant and 17 dissonant with the tendency indicated by the Rt. Dissonance was observed in all of the decrees that maintained the distance measures or loosened them. The fastest expansion in the number of new cases and the greatest amount of dissonant decrees was found in the last two months analyzed.

CONCLUSION

There was an important divergence between municipal measures of social distancing with epidemiological indicators at the time of each political decision.

Do family doctors refer less? Impact of FCM training on the rate of PHC referrals

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the impact of family medicine residence on the PHC referral rate.

METHODS

This is a cross-sectional descriptive study on 375.645 visits and 34.776 referrals by 123 PHC physicians in 2016, linking the referral rate to the characteristics of doctors (gender, age, family medicine training), patients (gender and age) and service (general population and working population).

RESULTS

Family and community medicine residency training had a significant reduction in PHC referral rate (2.86%), CI:(1.55;4.17), p < 0,0001. This reduction persisted in the multivariate analysis, after adjusting for all the possible confounding variables. No difference was found between the referral rates of doctors with and without family and community medicine (FCM) degree. Concerning referral to specialties, doctors with FCM residence training had lower rates of referral to gynecology, psychiatry and pediatrics and higher rates of referral to ophthalmology.

CONCLUSION

The study showed that FCM residency significantly reduced PHC referral rates.

ESTRATÉGIA SAÚDE DA FAMÍLIA MEETINGS: AN INDISPENSABLE TOOL FOR LOCAL PLANNING

ABSTRACT Objective: to demonstrate the structure, functioning and contributions of the Estratégia Saúde da Família work meetings regarding local health planning. Method: a single case study with five integrated units of analysis, represented by the coordinator of the Health Centre and four Estratégia Saúde da Família teams. Data collection was performed through semi-structured interviews, non-participant observation and documentary research from October to December 2014. Data were triangulated, organized with MaxQDA®Plus software, and analyzed according to the explanatory construction technique. Results: three analytical categories were identified: Structure and functioning of the Estratégia Saúde da Família work meetings; Participation of professionals in the Estratégia Saúde da Família work meetings for local planning; Processes that contribute to local health planning. Conclusion: work meetings are essential for the construction of local health planning. They provide professional integration through discussions, and facilitate decision-making and information exchange.