Predicting mortality within 1 year of ART initiation in children and adolescents living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa: a retrospective observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

Differentiated service delivery (DSD) for children and adolescents living with HIV can improve targeted resource use. We derived a mortality prediction score to guide clinical decision making for children and adolescents living with HIV.

METHODS

Data for this retrospective observational cohort study were evaluated for all children and adolescents living with HIV and initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART); aged 0-19 years; and enrolled at Baylor clinics in Eswatini, Malawi, Lesotho, Tanzania, and Uganda between 2005 and 2020. Data for clinical prediction, including anthropometric values, physical examination, ART, WHO stage, and laboratory tests were captured at ART initiation. Backward stepwise variable selection and logistic regression were performed to develop predictive models for mortality within 1 year of ART initiation. Probabilities of mortality were generated, compared with true outcomes, internally validated, and evaluated against WHO advanced HIV criteria.

FINDINGS

The study population included 16 958 children and adolescents living with HIV and initiated on ART between May 18, 2005, and Dec 18, 2020. Predictive variables for the most accurate model included: age, CD4 percentage, white blood cell count, haemoglobin concentration, platelet count, and BMI Z score as continuous variables, and WHO clinical stage and oedema, abnormal muscle tone and respiratory distress on examination as categorical variables. The area under the curve (AUC) of the predictive model was 0·851 (95% CI 0·839-0·863) in the training set and 0·822 (0·800-0·845) in the test set, compared with 0·606 (0·595-0·617) for the WHO advanced HIV criteria (p<0·0001).

INTERPRETATION

This study evaluated a large, multinational population to derive a mortality prediction tool for children and adolescents living with HIV. The model more accurately predicted clinical outcomes than the WHO advanced HIV criteria and has the potential to improve DSD for children and adolescents living with HIV in high-burden settings.

FUNDING

National Institute of Health Fogarty International Center.

Factors associated with the acceptability of Lopinavir/Ritonavir formulations among children living with HIV/AIDS attending care and treatment clinics in Mbeya and Mwanza, Tanzania

INTRODUCTION

Children living with chronic illnesses are offered formulations based on manufacturer and distributor research. The aim of this study is to better understand the perspectives of children and their caregivers in accepting Lopinavir/ritonavir (LPV/r) formulations.

METHODS

362 participants were recruited from two pediatric HIV/AIDS clinics in Mbeya and Mwanza, Tanzania, from December 2021 to May 2022. A translated questionnaire was piloted and validated at both clinics, followed by the implementation of a cross-sectional study.

RESULTS

169 participants (47.1%) reported general difficulties in swallowing, regardless of formulation, while 34.3% and 38.5% reported vomiting tablets and syrups, respectively. Statistical significance is shown to support that children can swallow medications if they can eat stiffened porridge (Ugali). This correlated with the lower incidence of younger children being able to swallow compared to older children (above six years of age). Children older than six years preferred taking tablets (independent of daily dosage) better than other formulations. Significantly, older children who attend school were associated with high odds of swallowing medicine (AOR = 3.06, 95%CI; 1.32-7.05); however, age was not found to be statistically related to ease of administration for Lopinavir/Ritonavir in this study.

CONCLUSIONS

Lopinavir/Ritonavir tablets remain the most accepted formulation among children and adolescents with HIV/AIDS. This study highlights the impact of various factors affecting the acceptability of pediatric formulation, suggesting that children younger than six years, unable to eat Ugali and not attending schools may be most vulnerable regarding their ability to accept Lopinavir/Ritonavir formulations. Further studies are needed to assess the acceptability of other medications in chronically ill children.

Growth and CD4 patterns of adolescents living with perinatally acquired HIV worldwide, a CIPHER cohort collaboration analysis

INTRODUCTION

Adolescents living with HIV are subject to multiple co-morbidities, including growth retardation and immunodeficiency. We describe growth and CD4 evolution during adolescence using data from the Collaborative Initiative for Paediatric HIV Education and Research (CIPHER) global project.

METHODS

Data were collected between 1994 and 2015 from 11 CIPHER networks worldwide. Adolescents with perinatally acquired HIV infection (APH) who initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) before age 10 years, with at least one height or CD4 count measurement while aged 10-17 years, were included. Growth was measured using height-for-age Z-scores (HAZ, stunting if <-2 SD, WHO growth charts). Linear mixed-effects models were used to study the evolution of each outcome between ages 10 and 17. For growth, sex-specific models with fractional polynomials were used to model non-linear relationships for age at ART initiation, HAZ at age 10 and time, defined as current age from 10 to 17 years of age.

RESULTS

A total of 20,939 and 19,557 APH were included for the growth and CD4 analyses, respectively. Half were females, two-thirds lived in East and Southern Africa, and median age at ART initiation ranged from <3 years in North America and Europe to >7 years in sub-Saharan African regions. At age 10, stunting ranged from 6% in North America and Europe to 39% in the Asia-Pacific; 19% overall had CD4 counts <500 cells/mm3 . Across adolescence, higher HAZ was observed in females and among those in high-income countries. APH with stunting at age 10 and those with late ART initiation (after age 5) had the largest HAZ gains during adolescence, but these gains were insufficient to catch-up with non-stunted, early ART-treated adolescents. From age 10 to 16 years, mean CD4 counts declined from 768 to 607 cells/mm3 . This decline was observed across all regions, in males and females.

CONCLUSIONS

Growth patterns during adolescence differed substantially by sex and region, while CD4 patterns were similar, with an observed CD4 decline that needs further investigation. Early diagnosis and timely initiation of treatment in early childhood to prevent growth retardation and immunodeficiency are critical to improving APH growth and CD4 outcomes by the time they reach adulthood.

Association between Antiretroviral Therapy and Cancers among Children Living with HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa

Simple Summary

Most children infected with HIV live in Sub-Sahara Africa (SSA). These children are at risk of cancers related to HIV infection, but the degree of this risk and how it is influenced by antiretroviral therapy (ART) is unknown. In this study, we determined the subtypes, incidence, and risk factors of cancers in children with HIV in SSA and receiving ART with the goal of learning how we may prevent these cancers. We found that Kaposi sarcoma and lymphoma are the most common, comprising about 77% and 19% of cancers in these children, respectively. For every 100,000 person-years, 47.6 children developed cancer. Waiting to start ART until after 2 years old and having had severe immunosuppression were the two biggest risk factors for cancer that we identified. The findings justify the recommendations to start children on ART as soon as they are diagnosed with HIV regardless of their CD4 immune status.

Abstract

Approximately 91% of the world’s children living with HIV (CLWH) are in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Living with HIV confers a risk of developing HIV-associated cancers. To determine the incidence and risk factors for cancer among CLWH, we conducted a nested case-control study of children 0–18 years from 2004–2014 at five centers in four SSA countries. Incident cases of cancer and HIV were frequency-matched to controls with HIV and no cancer. We calculated the incidence density by cancer type, logistic regression, and relative risk to evaluate risk factors of cancer. The adjusted incidence density of all cancers, Kaposi sarcoma, and lymphoma were 47.6, 36.6, and 8.94 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. Delayed ART until after 2 years of age was associated with cancer (OR = 2.71, 95% CI 1.51, 4.89) even after adjusting for World Health Organization clinical stage at the time of enrolment for HIV care (OR = 2.85, 95% CI 1.57, 5.13). The relative risk of cancer associated with severe CD4 suppression was 6.19 (p = 0.0002), 2.33 (p = 0.0042), and 1.77 (p = 0.0305) at 1, 5, and 10 years of ART, respectively. The study demonstrates the high risk of cancers in CLWH and the potential benefit of reducing this risk by the early initiation of ART.