Pelinovsky E, Kokoulina M, Epifanova A, Kurkin A, Kurkina O, Tang M, Macau E, Kirillin M. Gompertz model in COVID-19 spreading simulation.
Chaos Solitons Fractals 2022;
154:111699. [PMID:
34898863 PMCID:
PMC8642157 DOI:
10.1016/j.chaos.2021.111699]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/04/2021] [Accepted: 12/01/2021] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
The paper reports on application of the Gompertz model to describe the growth dynamics of COVID-19 cases during the first wave of the pandemic in different countries. Modeling has been performed for 23 countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Great Britain, Germany, Denmark, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Canada, China, the Netherlands, Norway, Serbia, Turkey, France, Czech Republic, Switzerland, South Korea, USA, Mexico, and Japan. The model parameters are determined by regression analysis based on official World Health Organization data available for these countries. The comparison of the predictions given by the Gompertz model and the simple logistic model (i.e., Verhulst model) is performed allowing to conclude on the higher accuracy of the Gompertz model.
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