Age- & sex-specific infection fatality ratios for COVID-19 estimated from two serially conducted community-based serosurveys, Chennai, India, 2020

Background & objectives

Infection fatality ratio (IFR) is considered a more robust and reliable indicator than case fatality ratio for severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Age- and sex-stratified IFRs are crucial to guide public health response. Infections estimated through representative community-based serosurveys would gauge more accurate IFRs than through modelling studies. We describe age- and sex-stratified IFR for COVID-19 estimated through serosurveys conducted in Chennai, India.

Methods

Two community-based serosurveys were conducted among individuals aged ≥10 yr during July and October 2020 in 51 of the 200 wards spread across 15 zones of Chennai. Total number of SARS-CoV-2 infections were estimated by multiplying the total population of the city aged ≥10 yr with the weighted seroprevalence and IFR was calculated by dividing the number of deaths with the estimated number of infections.

Results

IFR was 17.3 [95% confidence interval (CI): 14.1-21.6] and 16.6 (95% CI: 13.8-20.2) deaths/10,000 infections during July and October 2020, respectively. Individuals aged 10-19 years had the lowest IFR [first serosurvey (R1): 0.2/10,000, 95% CI: 0.2-0.3 and second serosurvey (R2): 0.2/10,000, 95% CI: 0.1-0.2], and it increased with age and was highest among individuals aged above 60 yr (R1: 140.0/10,000, 95% CI: 107.0-183.8 and R2: 111.2/10,000, 95% CI: 89.2-142.0).

Interpretation & conclusions

Our findings suggested that the IFR increased with age and was high among the elderly. Therefore, elderly population need to be prioritized for public health interventions including vaccination, frequent testing in long-term care facilities and old age homes, close clinical monitoring of the infected and promoting strict adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions.

OUP accepted manuscript

Background

The first serosurvey conducted in Chennai, India in July 2020 reported sudden acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) prevalence of 18.4%. The aim of this study was to estimate the seroprevalence in the month of October 2020.

Methods

We conducted a survey in 153 streets covering 51 wards and all 15 zones of the city and enrolled from each street 40 individuals ≥10 y of age. We collected 3–5 ml of venous blood and tested for anti-nucleocapsid (N) immunoglobulin (IgG) antibodies using a SARS-CoV-2 IgG assay. We estimated the weighted seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and adjusted for test characteristics.

Results

Of the 6366 sera tested, 2052 were positive for anti-N IgG antibodies. The weighted seroprevalence after adjusting for test characteristics was 30.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 24.7 to 36.1). There was wide variation in the seroprevalence between wards, ranging from 11.0% (95% CI 5.6 to 16.4) to 48.1% (95% CI 39.5 to 56.7).

Conclusions

The seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Chennai nearly doubled between July and October 2020.