Mathematical Modelling of Trachoma Transmission, Control and Elimination

The World Health Organization has targeted the elimination of blinding trachoma by the year 2020. To this end, the Global Elimination of Blinding Trachoma (GET, 2020) alliance relies on a four-pronged approach, known as the SAFE strategy (S for trichiasis surgery; A for antibiotic treatment; F for facial cleanliness and E for environmental improvement). Well-constructed and parameterized mathematical models provide useful tools that can be used in policy making and forecasting in order to help to control trachoma and understand the feasibility of this large-scale elimination effort. As we approach this goal, the need to understand the transmission dynamics of infection within areas of different endemicities, to optimize available resources and to identify which strategies are the most cost-effective becomes more pressing. In this study, we conducted a review of the modelling literature for trachoma and identified 23 articles that included a mechanistic or statistical model of the transmission, dynamics and/or control of (ocular) Chlamydia trachomatis. Insights into the dynamics of trachoma transmission have been generated through both deterministic and stochastic models. A large body of the modelling work conducted to date has shown that, to varying degrees of effectiveness, antibiotic administration can reduce or interrupt trachoma transmission. However, very little analysis has been conducted to consider the effect of nonpharmaceutical interventions (and particularly the F and E components of the SAFE strategy) in helping to reduce transmission. Furthermore, very few of the models identified in the literature review included a structure that permitted tracking of the prevalence of active disease (in the absence of active infection) and the subsequent progression to disease sequelae (the morbidity associated with trachoma and ultimately the target of GET 2020 goals). This represents a critical gap in the current trachoma modelling literature, which makes it difficult to reliably link infection and disease. In addition, it hinders the application of modelling to assist the public health community in understanding whether trachoma programmes are on track to reach the GET goals by 2020. Another gap identified in this review was that of the 23 articles examined, only one considered the cost-effectiveness of the interventions implemented. We conclude that although good progress has been made towards the development of modelling frameworks for trachoma transmission, key components of disease sequelae representation and economic evaluation of interventions are currently missing from the available literature. We recommend that rapid advances in these areas should be urgently made to ensure that mathematical models for trachoma transmission can robustly guide elimination efforts and quantify progress towards GET 2020.

A parasitological survey, in rural Zanzibar, of pre-school children and their mothers for urinary schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases and malaria, with observations on the prevalence of anaemia

'Kick-out-Kichocho' is an integrated helminth-control initiative that is aimed at reducing the burden of urinary schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH) on Zanzibar Island (Unguja), in Tanzania. Like other initiatives based on preventive chemotherapy, the programme is mainly school-based and, consequently, pre-school children (aged < or =6 years) are not targeted specifically. To assess the importance of urinary schistosomiasis, STH and malaria, as well as the occurrence of anaemia and growth retardation among these younger children, an epidemiological survey has been undertaken, in a rural area of Unguja, among 152 pre-school children and their 113 mothers. In the pre-school children investigated, urinary schistosomiasis was rare because of the children's lack of contact with environmental water. Malaria was also rare in the children, probably as a consequence of the study season, the widespread use of insecticide-treated bednets and the good access to first-line antimalarial drugs. In contrast, the prevalences of infection with at least one soil-transmitted helminth and of anaemia were alarmingly high among the pre-school children, at 50.0% [95% confidence interval (CI)=40.4%-59.6%) and 73.4% (CI=?65.2%-80.5%), respectively; the corresponding values in the children's mothers were 35.2% (CI=25.4%-45.9%) and 25.9% (CI=18.0%-35.3%). In the rural study area, Kandwi was identified as a hamlet with particularly high levels of transmission of soil-transmitted helminths, and household aggregations of STH were common. To reduce the present health inequities, the future integration of pre-school children within ongoing anthelmintic-control programmes in schools is strongly recommended.

An analysis of the population genetics of potential multi-drug resistance in Wuchereria bancrofti due to combination chemotherapy

Currently, annual mass treatments with albendazole (ABZ) plus ivermectin (IVM) or diethylcarbamazine (DEC) are administered under the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF). Drug resistance against both ABZ and IVM is prevalent in nematodes of veterinary importance, raising awareness that if anthelmintic resistance were to develop among Wuchereria bancrofti populations, this would jeopardize GPELF's goals. Genetic structure was incorporated into an existing transmission dynamics model for lymphatic filariasis (LF) to investigate the potential development of concurrent resistance to ABZ and IVM. The resultant models explore the impact of different inheritance modes of resistance to ABZ and IVM on the likely risk of treatment failure under our model assumptions. Results indicate that under ABZ+IVM combination, selection for resistance to one drug is enhanced if resistance to the other drug is already present. Excess parasite homozygosity may increase selection for dominant IVM resistance via enhancing the frequency of recessive ABZ resistance. The model predicts that if multiple resistance genes are associated with different efficacy properties of a drug combination, then examining changes at single loci may be misleading. Sampling schemes in genetic epidemiological surveys investigating the frequency of an allele under selection should consider host age, as individuals of different ages may acquire parasites at different rates.

Microfilarial distribution of Loa loa in the human host: population dynamics and epidemiological implications

Severe adverse events (SAEs) following ivermectin treatment may occur in people harbouring high Loa loa microfilarial (mf) densities. In the context of mass ivermectin distribution for onchocerciasis control in Africa, it is crucial to define precisely the geographical distribution of L. loa in relation to that of Onchocerca volvulus and predict the prevalence of heavy infections. To this end, we analysed the distribution of mf loads in 4183 individuals living in 36 villages of central Cameroon. Mf loads were assessed quantitatively by calibrated blood smears, collected prior to ivermectin distribution. We explored the pattern of L. loa mf aggregation by fitting the (zero-truncated) negative binomial distribution and estimating its overdispersion parameter k by maximum likelihood. The value of k varied around 0.3 independently of mf intensity, host age, village and endemicity level. Based on these results, we developed a semi-empirical model to predict the prevalence of heavy L. loa mf loads in a community given its overall mf prevalence. If validated at the continental scale and linked to predictive spatial models of loiasis distribution, this approach would be particularly useful for optimizing the identification of areas at risk of SAEs and providing estimates of populations at risk in localities where L. loa and O. volvulus are co-endemic.

Population genetics of concurrent selection with albendazole and ivermectin or diethylcarbamazine on the possible spread of albendazole resistance in Wuchereria bancrofti

The Global Program for the Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) intends to achieve its aims through yearly mass treatments with albendazole (ABZ) combined with ivermectin (IVM) or diethylcarbamazine (DEC). The use of ABZ and IVM separately to combat parasites of veterinary importance has, on many occasions, resulted in widespread drug resistance. In order to help predict the spread of potential ABZ resistance alleles through a population of Wuchereria bancrofti, we have developed a mathematical model that incorporates population genetics into EPIFIL, a model which examines the transmission dynamics of the parasite. Our model considers the effect of the combined treatments on the frequency of a recessive allele, which confers ABZ resistance. The model predicts that after 10 yearly treatments with ALB and DEC, 85% coverage and an initial resistance allele frequency of 5%, the frequency of the resistance genotype will increase from 0.25 to 12.7%. If non-random mating is assumed, the initial genotype frequency will be 2.34% and will increase to 62.7%. ABZ and IVM combination treatment may lead to weaker selection for this genotype. Treatment coverage, initial allele frequencies and number of treatments also affect the rate of selection.

Co-infection withOnchocerca volvulusandLoa loamicrofilariae in central Cameroon: are these two species interacting?

Ivermectin treatment may induce severe adverse reactions in some individuals heavily infected withLoa loa. This hampers the implementation of mass ivermectin treatment against onchocerciasis in areas whereOnchocerca volvulusandL. loaare co-endemic. In order to identify factors, including co-infections, which may explain the presence of highL. loamicrofilaraemia in some individuals, we analysed data collected in 19 villages of central Cameroon. Two standardized skin snips and 30 μl of blood were obtained from each of 3190 participants and the microfilarial (mf) loads of bothO. volvulusandL. loawere quantified. The data were analysed using multivariate hierarchical models. Individual-level variables were: age, sex, mf presence, and mf load; village-related variables included the endemicity levels for each infection. The two species show a certain degree of ecological separation in the study area. However, for a given individual host, the presence of microfilariae of one species was positively associated with the presence of microfilariae of the other (OR=1·79, 95% CI [1·43–2·24]). Among individuals harbouringLoamicrofilariae, there was a slight positive relationship between theL. loaandO. volvulusmf loads which corresponded to an 11% increase inL. loamf load per 100O. volvulusmicrofilariae. Co-infection withO. volvulusis not sufficient to explain the very highL. loamf loads harboured by some individuals.

Density dependence and overdispersion in the transmission of helminth parasites

The influence of density-dependent processes on the transmission of parasitic helminths is determined by both the severity of the regulatory constraints and the degree of parasite overdispersion among the host population. We investigate how overdispersed parasite distributions among humans influence transmission levels in both directly- and indirectly-transmitted nematodes (Ascaris lumbricoides and Onchocerca volvulus). While past work has assumed, for simplicity, that density dependence acts on the average worm load, here we model density-dependence as acting on individual parasite burdens before averaging across hosts. A composite parameter, which we call the effective transmission contribution, is devised to measure the number of transmission stages contributed by a given worm burden after incorporating over-dispersion in adult worm mating probabilities and other density-dependent mechanisms. Results indicate that the more overdispersed the parasite population, the greater the effect of density dependence upon its transmission dynamics. Strong regulation and parasite overdispersion make the relationship between mean worm burden and its effective contribution to transmission highly non-linear. Consequently, lowering the intensity of infection in a host population using chemotherapy may produce only a small decline in transmission (relative to its initial endemic level). Our analysis indicates that when parasite burden is low, intermediate levels of parasite clustering maximize transmission. Implications are discussed in relation to existing control programmes and the spread of anthelmintic resistance.

Population biology of multispecies helminth infection: interspecific interactions and parasite distribution

Despite evidence for the existence of interspecific interactions between helminth species, there has been no theoretical exploration of their effect on the distribution of the parasite species in a host population. We use a deterministic model for the accumulation and loss of adult worms of 2 interacting helminth species to motivate an individual-based stochastic model. The mean worm burden and variance[ratio ]mean ratio (VMR) of each species, and the correlation between the two species are used to describe the distribution within different host age classes. We find that interspecific interactions can produce convex age-intensity profiles and will impact the level of aggregation (as measured by the VMR). In the absence of correlated exposure, the correlation in older age classes may be close to zero when either intra- or interspecific synergistic effects are strong. We therefore suggest examining the correlation between species in young hosts as a possible means of identifying interspecific interaction. The presence of correlation between the rates of exposure makes the interpretation of correlations between species more difficult. Finally we show that in the absence of interaction, strong positive correlations are generated by averaging across most age classes.

Diurnal biting periodicity of parous Simulium (Diptera: Simuliidae) vectors in the onchocerciasis Amazonian focus

We describe the hourly patterns of parous biting activity of the three main simuliid vectors of human onchocerciasis in the Amazonian focus straddling between Venezuela and Brazil, namely, Simulium guianense s.l. Wise; S. incrustatum Lutz, and S. oyapockense s.l. Floch and Abonnenc. Time series of the hourly numbers of host-seeking parous flies caught in five Yanomami villages during dry, rainy, and their transition periods from 1995 to 2001 were investigated using harmonic analysis (assuming an underlying circadian rhythm) and periodic correlation (based on Spearman's r). Parous S guianense s.l. showed a bimodal activity pattern, with a minor peak in mid-morning and a major peak at 16:00 h. S. incrustatum exhibited mainly unimodal activity during either early morning or midday according to locality. S. oyapockense s.l. bit humans throughout the day mainly between 10:00 and 16:00 h but also showed bimodal periodicity in some localities. Superimposed on the endogenous, species-specific daily cycles, parous activity showed variation according to locality, season, air temperature and relative humidity, with biting being promoted by warmer and drier hours during wet seasons/periods and reduced during hotter times in dry seasons or transitions. The results are discussed in terms of their implications for blackfly biology and ecology as well as onchocerciasis epidemiology and control.

Spatial and temporal variation in biting rates and parasite transmission potentials of onchocerciasis vectors in Ecuador

The influence of spatial and temporal factors on onchocerciasis transmission by Simulium exiguum s.l. and S. quadrivittatum in Ecuador was investigated to help develop sampling protocols for entomological surveillance of ivermectin programmes. Flies were collected in alternate months (November 1995-November 1996) at four sites each in the hyperendemic communities of San Miguel and El Tigre. A fixed-effects analysis of variance was used to explore the influence on vector abundance of locality, site, month and hour. Infectivity rates detected by dissection and PCR assays were compared. Simulium exiguum s.l. predominated at El Tigre (75%) whereas S. quadrivittatum prevailed at San Miguel (62%). Vector abundance was highest on river banks and outside houses. Biting and infection rates peaked from March to July. Hourly activity patterns were bimodal in S. exiguum but unimodal in S. quadrivittatum. Annual transmission potentials (ATP) for both species combined were 385 and 733 third stage larvae/person in San Miguel and El Tigre respectively, with S. exiguum accounting for 80% of the combined ATP at both localities. We recommend protocols that may maximize detection of parasite transmission. Infection rates thus obtained must be linked with vector density estimates to assess meaningfully host exposure as treatment progresses.

Association between microfilarial load and excess mortality in onchocerciasis: an epidemiological study

BACKGROUND

Infection with the parasitic filarial nematode Onchocerca volvulus can lead to severe visual impairment and ultimately blindness. Excess mortality has been noted among people with onchocerciasis, but it is not clear whether this effect is entirely due to blindness, or mediated by some more direct effects of the infection.

METHODS

We assessed the relations between infection with O volvulus, visual acuity, and host mortality with data obtained by the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa from 2315 villages in 11 countries.

FINDINGS

297,756 people were eligible for follow-up, and accumulated 2,579449 person-years of follow-up from 1971 through 2001. 24,517 people died during this period; 1283 (5.2%) of these deaths were due to onchocerciasis. Mortality of the human host was significantly and positively associated with increasing microfilarial burden (p<0.00001), but not with blindness after adjustment for microfilarial load and other variables. Overall, after adjustment for microfilarial load and other variables, female individuals had a risk of death about 7.5% lower than males (p<0.00001). Rates of mortality peaked in the mid 1980s but generally decreased thereafter.

INTERPRETATION

We have shown a direct relation between O volvulus microfilarial load and host mortality in a comprehensive dataset and in both sexes.

Experimental studies on the transmission of Onchocerca volvulus by its vector in the Sanaga valley (Cameroon): Simulium squamosum B. Intake of microfilariae and their migration to the haemocoel of the vector

As large-scale ivermectin distribution is becoming the mainstay of onchocerciasis control in Africa, the issue of its impact on local transmission is increasing in importance. The vector competence of Simulium squamosum B in the severe focus of the Sanaga valley, Cameroon, was therefore investigated, by feeding 1320 flies on 14 carriers of Onchocerca volvulus microfilariae (mff). The results enabled the relationships between skin microfilarial load, microfilarial intake by the flies, the proportion and mean number of ingested mff that succeed in reaching the fly's haemocoel, and the frequency distribution of the ingested mff to be described, as functions of time post-engorgement (p.e.) and parasite density (while taking account of possible measurement error in the predictor variable). The proportion of flies with haemocoelic mff and the mean number of mff/fly increased up to 3 h p.e. The proportion of flies with ingested mff was non-linearly related to mean intake, via the negative-binomial distribution, with the overdispersion parameter k best described as an increasing (power) function of the mean. Approximately one in every three ingested mff escaped imprisonment by the peritrophic matrix, irrespective of the skin microfilarial load or the intake of mff. The relationship between successful and input mff is nearly linear (indicating proportionality) in S. squamosum B. These results are compared with those from O. volvulus-S. damnosum s.l. combinations in other West African foci.

Models for the population biology and control of human onchocerciasis

The absence of animal models in which to reproduce successfully the complete life cycle of Onchocerca volvulus has hindered progress towards unravelling the processes involved in the regulation of parasite abundance in the vertebrate host. Mathematical frameworks have been developed to explore the consequences of such processes in determining parasite population dynamics and the effect on these of control interventions. Post-control predictions are strongly influenced by the assumptions concerning the reproductive life span of the adult female worm (the longest-lived parasite stage) and the distribution of its survival times, and this notion is important to all frameworks. Here, we review the development of models concerning onchocerciasis and discuss the various approaches that have been used, presenting a deterministic framework with parameter values estimated from the Mexican onchocerciasis control programme. This model is used to evaluate interventions combining the removal of adult worms (nodulectomy) and the microfilaricidal and possibly sterilizing effect of ivermectin.

Human onchocerciasis in the Amazonian area of southern Venezuela: spatial and temporal variations in biting and parity rates of black fly (Diptera: Simuliidae) vectors

We investigated some entomological factors underlying altitudinal prevalence variation in the Venezuelan Amazonia human onchocerciasis focus. Spatial and temporal variation in relative abundance, daily biting rate, proportion of parous flies, and monthly parous biting rate were studied for the three main simuliid vectors (based on their vectorial competence: Simulium oyapockense s.l. Floch & Abonnenc approximately = S. incrustatum Lutz << S. guianense s.l. Wise). Yanomami villages were selected among sentinel communities of the ivermectin control program, representing hypo- to hyperendemicity conditions of infection. Spatial variation was explored via increasing village altitude on two river systems (A: Ocamo-Putaco and B: Orinoco-Orinoquito). Temporal variation was studied between 1995 and 1999 by sampling the biting population during dry and rainy mouths. Environmental variables included monthly rainfall and maximum river height. Simuliid species composition itself varied along the altitudinal and prevalence gradient. S. oyapockense s.l. prevailed below 150 m. Above this altitude and up to 240 m, S. incrustatum and S. guianense s.l. became more frequently and evenly collected along A but not along B, where S. incrustatum remained absent. The daily biting rate of S. oyapockense s.l. was higher during the dry season along A, whereas the converse took place along B. Daily biting rate of S. incrustatum was lowest during early rains. By contrast, the daily biting rate of S. guianense s.l. was highest during this period. There was a significant negative cross-correlation between proportion of parous of S. oyapockense s.l. and river height (2 and 3 mo lagged), whereas this variable (1 and 2 mo lagged) was positively correlated with the proportion of parous flies for S. incrustatum. Monthly parous biting rate values suggest that the months contributing most to onchocerciasis transmission in the area are likely to be the dry season and the transition periods between seasons.

Amazonian onchocerciasis: parasitological profiles by host-age, sex, and endemicity in southern Venezuela

This paper describes, for the human onchocerciasis focus of southern Venezuela, the age profiles of Onchocerca volvulus microfilarial (mf) and nodule prevalence, mf intensity, and mf aggregation for the whole examined population (836 Yanomami people) living in 20 villages, and for these communities classified according to endemicity levels (hypoendemic: < or = 20 %; mesoendemic: 21-59 %; hyperendemic: < or = 60 % infected). Mf prevalence and intensity increased with age, particularly in the hyperendemic areas, and there were no marked differences between the sexes. The prevalence of nodules followed the same age pattern. Fifty percent mf prevalence was reached in the 15-19 year age-class when the population was taken as a whole; nearly in the 10 to 14-year-olds for the hyperendemic level, in those aged 20-29 years in mesoendemic areas, and not reached at all in hypoendemic villages. The degree of mf aggregation was measured by the k value of the negative binomial distribution and by the variance to mean ratio (VMR). The relationship between the standard deviation (S.D.) of mf counts and the mean mf density was also explored. These 3 indices (k, VMR, and S.D.) showed a tendency to increase with both mean mf load and host age. Since infection intensity and host age were themselves positively related, it was not possible to draw definite conclusions about age-specific changes of parasite aggregation. There was not a significant decrease of mf intensity after an earlier peak neither was there a shift towards younger ages of the maximum no. of mf/mg reached as the endemicity level increased. These results are discussed in relation to detection of density dependence in the human host, selection of an indicator age-group for rapid epidemiological assessment (REA) methods, and strategies of ivermectin distribution in the Amazonian focus. It is recommended that, for the Amazonian onchocerciasis focus, the indicator group for REA consists of all those aged 15 years and over.

Parasitological indicators of onchocerciasis relevant to ivermectin control programmes in the Amazonian focus of Southern Venezuela

In the previous paper it was concluded that those aged > or = 15 years of both sexes could comprise the indicator group for rapid epidemiological assessment (REA) of onchocerciasis in the Amazonian focus. This paper explores relationships between community microfilarial (mf) prevalence, intensity, and nodule prevalence in 20 Yanomami communities, that would allow identification of REA methods in the region. The mean nodule ratio (prevalence of nodules/prevalence of mf) was 0.54 when onchocercomata in the indicator group were considered. The Spearman correlation coefficient between mf and nodule prevalence was 0.686 (P = 0.001). Palpation of nodules had 92 % specificity and 32 % sensitivity when compared to skin-snipping for the diagnosis of onchocerciasis. The predictive value positive increased from 75 % to 81 % when the indicator group was used. A microfilarial prevalence > 75 % in this group would be indicative of hyperendemic status in the village, between 30 and 75 % of mesoendemicity, and < 30 % of hypoendemicity. For the assessment of infection intensity, biopsies may be taken from the iliac crest for all endemicity levels. Five of the hyperendemic villages surveyed in this work had a community microfilarial load (CMFL) greater than 10 mf/skin snip; the remaining 5 had a CMFL between 5 and 9. These levels of infection merit high priority ivermectin treatment. In Latin America, communities at both moderate and severe risk are included in mass chemotherapy programmes (i.e. when mf prevalence is over 20 %). Roughly, a nodule prevalence in the indicator group > 10 % would suggest a community mf prevalence > 20 % with a sensitivity of 85 % and a specificity of 71 %. A multiple linear regression model of the arc-sine transformed mf prevalence in the village (all ages) on nodule prevalence in those aged > or = 15 years and altitude of the village explained 72 % of the variance. The model combining nodule and altitudinal information had a sensitivity of 92 % and a specificity of 71 % in comparison to an estimated mf prevalence of 21 % or more. It is suggested that the usefulness of the REA methods proposed be assessed in other areas of the Amazonian onchocerciasis focus.

Phosphoglucomutase and trehalase isoenzymes of Venezuelan simulium vectors of Onchocerca volvulus

Phosphoglucomutase (PGM) and trehalase (Tre) isoenzymes of five species of Simulium blackflies (Diptera: Simuliidae), vectors of onchocerciasis in Venezuela, were investigated by means of a portable electrophoresis field kit. Tre differed between S. incrustatum and S. oyapockense s.l. Electrophoretic variation of Tre in other members of the S. amazonicum and S. incrustatum groups merit further investigation. PGM appears to be more useful for separating populations within species complexes. Multiple populations and/or seasonal changes in population structure of S. guianense s.l., S. exiguum s.l. and S. metallicum s.l. were inferred from elecrophoretic variation of PGM.

Onchocerca-Simulium complexes in Venezuela: can human onchocerciasis spread outside its present endemic areas?

The compatibility between sympatric and allopatric combinations of Onchocerca volvulus-anthropophilic species of Simulium was studied in the north-eastern focus of human onchocerciasis as well as in a densely populated locality of the Amazonas State in Venezuela. The objectives were to test the conjecture that local adaptation exists between the parasite and its vectors (the Onchocerca-Simulium complex hypothesis), and assess the possibility of the infection spreading from its present distributional range. For the homologous combination, O. volvulus-S. metallicum cytospecies E in Anzoátegui State (north-eastern focus), parasite yield was 45% in contrast to 1% for the heterologous, southern parasite-S. metallicum infection. This was significantly lower than the parasite yield (4-10%) expected after allowing for the effect of density-dependent limitation of infective larval output described in this paper for S. metallicum. The population of S. exiguum s.l. from southern Venezuela allowed no larval development beyond the L1 stage of either northern or southern parasites. Mechanisms for such refractoriness probably operate at the level of the thoracic muscles, not affecting microfilarial uptake or migration out of the bloodmeal. The parasite yield of southern O. volvulus in S. oyapockense s.l. flies biting man at Puerto Ayacucho (Amazonas) was about 1%, in agreement with the figures recorded for highly compatible sympatric combinations such as O. volvulus-S. ochraceum s.l. in Guatemala. No infective larval development of the northern parasite was observed in southern S. oyapockense. These results, together with considerations of typical worm burdens in the human host, presence/absence of armed cibaria in the simuliids, parasite-induced vector mortality, and fly biting rates, suggest a lower potential for onchocerciasis to spread between the northern and southern endemic areas of Venezuela than that between Amazonian hyperendemic locations and settlements outside this focus with high densities of S. oyapockense s.l.

Population biology of human onchocerciasis

Human onchocerciasis (river blindness) is the filarial infection caused by Onchocerca volvulus and transmitted among people through the bites of the Simulium vector. Some 86 million people around the world are at risk of acquiring the nematode, with 18 million people infected and 600,000 visually impaired, half of them partially or totally blind. 99% of cases occur in tropical Africa; scattered foci exist in Latin America. Until recently control programmes, in operation since 1975, have consisted of antivectorial measures. With the introduction of ivermectin in 1988, safe and effective chemotherapy is now available. With the original Onchocerciasis Control Programme of West Africa coming to an end, both the new African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control and the Onchocerciasis Elimination Programme for the Americas, rely heavily on ivermectin self-sustained mass delivery. In consequence, the need for understanding the processes regulating parasite abundance in human and simuliid populations is of utmost importance. We present a simple mathematical framework built around recent analyses of exposure- and density-dependent processes operating, respectively, within the human and vector hosts. An expression for the basic reproductive ratio, R0, is derived and related to the minimum vector density required for parasite persistence in localities of West Africa in general and northern Cameroon in particular. Model outputs suggest that constraints acting against parasite establishment in both humans and vectors are necessary to reproduce field observations, but those in humans may not fully protect against reinfection. Analyses of host age-profiles of infection prevalence, intensity, and aggregation for increasing levels of endemicity and intensity of transmission in the Vina valley of northern Cameroon are in agreement with these results and discussed in light of novel work on onchocerciasis immunology.

Onchocerciasis hyperendemic in the Unturán Mountains: the value of recombinant antigens in describing a new transmission area in southern Venezuela

A recently described hyperendemic onchocerciasis area, located in the Unturán Mountains (between the Siapa and Orinoco basins) of southern Venezuela was studied using a cocktail of 3 low molecular weight onchocercal recombinant antigens (OvMBP/10, OvMBP/11, and OvMBP/29). The resulting seroepidemiological data were compared with those from a hypoendemic community (Altamira) situated in the northern coastal mountain range. Parasitological (skin biopsy) and serological (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, ELISA) methods for the specific diagnosis of Onchocerca volvulus in these 2 very different endemic areas were, respectively, 88% and 96% sensitive in Unturán, and 57% and 91% sensitive in Altamira. The mean microfilarial load, the mean optical density (OD), and the seropositivity rates all increased significantly with age in both communities. The serological variables (mean OD and prevalence of anti-O. volvulus antibodies) were both significantly higher in Unturán than in Altamira for children and young adults (aged < 25 years), although above this age no differences between communities were detected. Seroprevalence had already reached 50% in the under 15 year-olds examined at Unturán but was just 5% at Altamira for the same age-class. The prevalence of specific antibodies (mainly a marker of exposure to risk of infection) exceeded 85% in the remaining age-categories at the hyperendemic area. This is in agreement with the high community microfilarial load recorded in Unturán (> 20 mf/mg) and the presence of sclerosing keratitis and hanging groin, suggesting that onchocerciasis is a public health problem in this community. The ELISA test used here, based on a cocktail of 3 low molecular weight onchocercal recombinant antigens, appears, therefore, to constitute a practical tool for the description of endemicity levels in remote areas, particularly given the fact that finger-prick blood samples are routinely taken from children in the Upper Orinoco region for surveys of malaria incidence. Such studies could aid in defining the true extent of the Amazon focus (still unknown) and providing priority indicators for the selection of communities where onchocerciasis control programmes should be implemented.

Onchocerciasis in the Amazonian focus of southern Venezuela: altitude and blackfly species composition as predictors of endemicity to select communities for ivermectin control programmes

In preparation for an ivermectin distribution programme, the prevalence and intensity of infection due to Onchocerca volvulus as well as the species composition and abundance of Simulium vectors were investigated in 22 Yanomami communities situated along 2 altitudinal transects in the southern Venezuelan onchocerciasis focus. These transects corresponded to the Ocamo-Putaco and Orinoco-Orinoquito river systems, covering a range of elevation between 50 m and 740 m above sea level (asl). A total of 831 people underwent parasitological examination in this survey and an additional 196 patients from a previous study, at an altitude of 950 m, were included in the analysis. A total of 92,659 man-biting blackflies were collected and identified to morphospecies. S. oyapockense s.l. was the predominant simuliid up to 150 m asl, whereas S. guianense s.l. and S. incrustatum s.l. prevailed above 150 m. Communities located below 150 m were found to range from hypo- to mesoendemic; all villages above 150 m proved to be hyperendemic (> 60% microfilarial prevalence) and mass ivermectin treatment should be implemented. Age above 10-14 years, altitude of the village and biting rate of S. guianense s.l. up to 200 m asl were found to be statistically significant independent predictors of infection by multivariate logistic regression using a spline model. There were no differences in infection status according to sex. Above 200 m, microfilarial rate and density remained approximately constant, prevalence averaging 79% regardless of blackfly abundance. For the implementation of ivermectin-based onchocerciasis control programmes in the Amazonian focus, altitude and species composition of the blackfly population might be adopted as useful indicators aiding selection of the most affected communities. However, below 200 m additional parasitological indicators may also be necessary. As a direct result of this study, regular mass-ivermectin delivery to meso- and hyperendemic communities is now in progress.

Determination of sample sizes for the estimation of Onchocerca volvulus (Filarioidea: Onchocercidae) infection rates in biting populations of Simulium ochraceum s.l. (Diptera: Simuliidae) and its application to ivermectin control programs

Monthly samples of biting Simulium ochraceum s.l. Walker were collected before and after ivermectin treatment in southern Mexico and analyzed for Onchocerca volvulus Leuckart infection rates, infection intensity, and the characteristics of larval distribution among parous flies. The variance over mean ratio (VMR) indicated that in all cases this distribution departed from Poisson and was strongly aggregated (VMR > 1). The negative binomial was found to be an adequate model with a small value of the aggregation parameter k, but the degree of larval overdispersion increased as the mean larval load decreased, invalidating the use of a common kc value. A linear relationship between k and the mean (mu) was established, k(mu) = k1 mu, which permitted exploration of the relationship between the observed proportion of infected flies, p, and the estimated mean larval burden per fly, m (all larval stages in parous flies). This would allow mean numbers of larvae per parous fly to be predicted from presence-absence data (e.g., from infection rates provided by polymerase chain reaction methods applied to pools of flies), assuming that k1 is a known parameter. Given that both p and m are naturally low in S. ochraceum, their relationship was practically linear within the range of observed values. Predictions were tested with the Mexican data from which the clumping parameter was estimated as well as for Guatemalan data for which this information was not available. Results showed a highly satisfactory degree of agreement between predictions and observations. The sample sizes required to estimate mean larval loads from prevalence data for fixed levels of precision (defined as the ratio between SE[m] and m) were calculated for realistic S. ochraceum infection rates (those found in published pre- and postcontrol field surveys as well as in this work). For the special case in which the relationship between k and the mean is linear and goes through the origin, k(mu) = k1 mu, the number of flies to be examined for O. volvulus infections does not explicitly depend on the aggregation parameter, but rather on the unknown proportion of infected flies. Practical recommendations for the calculation of sample sizes are discussed. For infection levels < 0.2%, a minimum number between 6,000 and 13,000 parous flies would have to be examined to estimate the mean larval load with a precision between 0.20 and 0.30. The linearity between onchocercal infection rate and infection intensity in the fly population indicates that relationships between the former and onchocerciasis patterns in the human population should be further explored for the purposes of monitoring the impact of ivermectin control programs through entomological evaluations.

Density-dependent processes in the transmission of human onchocerciasis: relationship between microfilarial intake and mortality of the simuliid vector

In order to construct an analytical model of onchocerciasis transmission, it is necessary to elucidate the functional relationships of the various population rate processes taking place within the human and vector hosts. Two previous papers have explored the evidence for density-dependent regulation in relation to microfilarial intake by, and larval development within, the Simulium host. This paper investigates the survivorship of wild-caught blackfly samples fed on subjects with different intensities of Onchocerca volvulus microfilarial infection. Analyses were based on data for Guatemalan S. ochraceum s.l. (possessing a well-developed cibarial armature), West African S. damnosum s.l. (forest species), and South Venezuelan S. guianense (the latter two lacking a toothed cibarium). The mean survival times of samples of the 3 species, kept under laboratory conditions, decreased as parasite intake increased, the rate of mortality being dependent on the fly's age (measured as time post-feeding) and on the worm load acquired. An empirical, time-dependent hazard function was fitted to observed death rates/fly/day which rose very shortly after engorgement, declined subsequently, and rose again throughout the extrinsic incubation period of the parasite. The parameters of this hazard model were all positively correlated with the density of microfilariae in the bloodmeal. Expressions of survivorship and life-expectancy as explicit functions of time post-feeding and mean parasite intake were derived. The average expectation of life at engorgement for uninfected flies in the laboratory was estimated to be around 1 week for both, armed and unarmed blackflies. Residual life-expectancy decreased with time post-feeding and microfilarial load in both categories of vectors. This decline (resulting from age- and parasite-dependent mortality rates) was much more pronounced in those species lacking a toothed fore-gut. Whilst a fraction of heavily infected S. ochraceum was able to survive the latent period of the parasite, being therefore potentially capable of transmitting the infection, equivalent worm loads in S. guianense resulted in a drastic reduction of the expectation of infective life. These results provide additional evidence to support the hypothesis that, in the case of intrinsically susceptible vectors, unarmed simuliids are more efficient at low microfilarial loads, when the transmission rate from human to vector host is higher, and parasite-induced fly mortality is negligible. The opposite takes place in armed flies, which perform poorly at low parasite burdens and better at heavier loads, with little parasite-induced vector death.

Density-dependent processes in the transmission of human onchocerciasis: relationship between the numbers of microfilariae ingested and successful larval development in the simuliid vector

A previous paper reported that the intake of Onchocerca volvulus microfilariae (mff) by different species of Simulium is essentially proportional to the parasite load in the skin of infected carriers. This paper examines the fate of the ingested mff in susceptible vectors to assess the relationship between parasite intake and infective larval output in blackfly species with and without well-developed cibarial armatures. Analysis is based on data from 3 onchocerciasis endemic areas: Guatemala (S. ochraceum s.l.), West Africa (S. damnosum s.l./S. sirbanum) and the Amazonian focus between South Venezuela and Northern Brazil (S. guianense and S. oyapockense s.l.). The data, which include published and unedited information collected in the field, record experimental studies of parasite uptake by wild flies maintained in captivity until the completion of the extrinsic incubation period. The relationship between L3 output (measured as the mean number of successful larvae/fly or, as the proportion of flies with infective larvae) and average microfilarial intake, was strongly non-linear. This non-linearity was best represented by a sigmoid function in case of armed simuliids (S. ochraceum s.l., S. oyapockense s.l.), or by a hyperbolic expression in that of unarmed flies (S. damnosum s.l., S. guianense). These results are compatible, respectively, with the patterns of 'initial facilitation' and 'limitation' described in culicid vectors of lymphatic filariases. A maximum mean number of 1-3 L3/fly was observed in all 4 vectors. It is concluded that O. volvulus larval development to the infective stage is regulated by density-dependent mechanisms acting at the early phase of microfilarial migration out of the blackfly's bloodmeal. Damage by the bucco-pharyngeal armature may also be density dependent. A hypothesis, based on this density dependence is forwarded to explain initial facilitation, so far only recorded in vectors with well-developed cibarial teeth. Our results provide quantitative support for the conjecture that chemotherapy alone is likely to have a greater impact on reducing onchocerciasis transmission in endemic areas where the main vector has a toothed fore-gut than in foci where the vectors have unarmed cibaria.

Density-dependent processes in the transmission of human onchocerciasis: intensity of microfilariae in the skin and their uptake by the simuliid host

The transmission success of Onchocerca volvulus is thought to be influenced by a variety of regulatory or density-dependent processes that act at various points in the two-host life-cycle. This paper examines one component of the life-cycle, namely, the ingestion of microfilariae by the simuliid vector, to assess the relationship between intake of larvae and the density of parasites in the skin of the human host. Analysis is based on data from three areas in which onchocerciasis is endemic and includes published information as well as new data collected in field studies. The three areas are: Guatemala (Simulium ochraceum s.l.), West and Central Africa (savanna members of the S. damnosum complex), and South Venezuela (S. guianense). The data record experimental studies of parasite uptake by flies captured in the field and fed to repletion on locally infected subjects who harboured varying intensities of dermal microfilarial infection. Regression analyses of log transformed counts of parasite burdens ingested by the flies plotted against log transformed counts of microfilariae per mg of skin revealed little evidence for saturation in parasite uptake by the flies as the intensity in the human host increased. There was a positive and highly significant rank correlation between both variables for the three blackfly species. In an alternative analysis a model was fitted to data on prevalence of flies with ingested microfilariae (mff) versus dermal mean intensities. The model assumed an overdispersed distribution of the number of mff/fly and a given functional relationship between intake and skin load. The results of both approaches were consistent. It is concluded that parasite ingestion by the vector host is not strongly density dependent in the three geographical areas and ranges of dermal loads examined. It therefore appears that this transmission process is of reduced importance as a regulatory mechanism in the dynamics of parasite population growth.

The vectoral role of several blackfly species (Diptera: Simuliidae) in relation to human onchocerciasis in the Sierra Parima and Upper Orinoco regions of Venezuela

Experimental and natural infections with Onchocerca volvulus were studied in several anthropophilic blackfly species present in the endemic area of the Upper Orinoco region of Venezuela. When fed on four different Yanomami volunteers in the Sierra Parima, the total infection rate was 31.4% for Simulium guianense in comparison with 7.5% for S. limbatum. The proportion of ingested microfilariae that entered the thorax during the first 24 hours and completed development to the infective stage was also much lower in the latter than in the former species. There was no larval development of O. volvulus in S. antillarum, but one female harboured in its head six infective larvae of a zoonotic filaria. When S. oyapokense s.l. was fed on an infected volunteer in the Upper Orinoco most flies ingested few microfilariae, and further development reached only the L1 stage. Natural infection and infectivity rates for S. guianense in two localities of the Sierra Parima were 0.2-4.0% and 1.3-10.2%, respectively, more than 50% of the L3 larvae being in the head. The corresponding data for S. oyapockense s.l. in the Upper Orinoco were 0.1-0.5%, although the only L3 larva found did not correspond to O. volvulus. It is suggested that S. guianense is the main vector of onchocerciasis in the Sierra Parima and that S. limbatum could play a secondary role. Simulium oyapockense s.l. replaces them in the Upper Orinoco and may maintain a degree of transmission, but its epidemiological importance remains to be assessed.

Experimental and natural infection of Simulium sanchezi by Mansonella ozzardi in the Middle Orinoco region of Venezuela

Experimental and natural infections of Simulium sanchezi by Mansonella ozzardi were studied in the area of Síquita, Territorio Federal Amazonas, Venezuela. The microfilariae developed synchronously in the blackflies, reaching stage L3 in seven to eight days at temperatures between 23 degrees and 27 degrees C. Larvae in different stages of development, including infective forms, were found in 0.6% of 662 unfed wild-caught females. These results confirm that simuliids are the main vectors of M. ozzardi in the American continent.

Development of Onchocerca volvulus larvae in Simulium pintoi in the Amazonas region of Venezuela

The intake and development of Onchocerca volvulus in Simulium pintoi from the Parima mountain region of the Federal Territory of Amazonas in Venezuela, were studied experimentally. When wild females fed on the lower half of the legs and lower third of the back of an onchocerciasis patient harboring 23 and 264 microfilariae per skin snip, respectively, at each site, an average (median) of 14 (range, 1-77) and 245 (range, 58-495) microfilariae was ingested. However, within 24 hours of microfilarial ingestion a mortality of 47% (16/34 flies) was observed in the group of flies which fed on the back, as compared with 2% (2/101 flies) in the other group which fed on the legs. At a temperature varying between 16 degrees C and 24 degrees C, the development of O. volvulus larvae in S. pintoi was synchronous and orderly; no abnormal nor deformed larvae were observed. Third-stage larvae were first seen in the head of flies dying between 8 and 9 days after microfilarial ingestion, and 98 of 100 larvae recovered from days 10-16 were in the third stage. The proportions of females harboring third-stage larvae among flies which lived through day 8 in the two groups which fed on the legs and back, respectively, were 55% (21/38 flies) and 63% (5/8 flies). Although only two of five positive flies in the latter group contained third-stage larvae in the head (1 and 12, respectively), 71% (15/21 positive flies) of the former group had an average of 2.7 third-stage larvae in the head (range, 1-10).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)