Prediction of disease severity in young children presenting with acute febrile illness in resource-limited settings: a protocol for a prospective observational study

INTRODUCTION

In rural and difficult-to-access settings, early and accurate recognition of febrile children at risk of progressing to serious illness could contribute to improved patient outcomes and better resource allocation. This study aims to develop a prognostic clinical prediction tool to assist community healthcare providers identify febrile children who might benefit from referral or admission for facility-based medical care.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This prospective observational study will recruit at least 4900 paediatric inpatients and outpatients under the age of 5 years presenting with an acute febrile illness to seven hospitals in six countries across Asia. A venous blood sample and nasopharyngeal swab is collected from each participant and detailed clinical data recorded at presentation, and each day for the first 48 hours of admission for inpatients. Multianalyte assays are performed at reference laboratories to measure a panel of host biomarkers, as well as targeted aetiological investigations for common bacterial and viral pathogens. Clinical outcome is ascertained on day 2 and day 28.Presenting syndromes, clinical outcomes and aetiology of acute febrile illness will be described and compared across sites. Following the latest guidance in prediction model building, a prognostic clinical prediction model, combining simple clinical features and measurements of host biomarkers, will be derived and geographically externally validated. The performance of the model will be evaluated in specific presenting clinical syndromes and fever aetiologies.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study has received approval from all relevant international, national and institutional ethics committees. Written informed consent is provided by the caretaker of all participants. Results will be shared with local and national stakeholders, and disseminated via peer-reviewed open-access journals and scientific meetings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04285021.

Sustained Reduction in Sexual Behavior that May Pose a Risk of HIV Transmission Following Diagnosis During Early HIV Infection Among Gay Men in Vancouver, British Columbia

Increased viral load during early HIV infection (EHI) disproportionately contributes to HIV transmission among gay men. We examined changes in sexual behavior that may pose a risk of HIV transmission (condomless anal sex (AS) with a serodiscordant or unknown status partner, CAS-SDU) in a cohort of 25 gay men newly diagnosed during EHI who provided information on 241 sexual partners at six time points following diagnosis. Twenty-two (88%) participants reported ≥1 AS partner (median time to first AS 80 days) and 12 (55%) reported ≥1 partnership involving CAS-SDU (median 116 days). In hierarchical generalized linear mixed effects models, AS was significantly less likely in all time periods following diagnosis and more likely with serodiscordant partners. The likelihood of CAS-SDU decreased three months after diagnosis and was higher in recently versus acutely infected participants. Most men in our study abstained from sex immediately after diagnosis with sustained longer-term reduction in CAS-SDU, confirming the importance of timely diagnosis during EHI.

Diagnostic technologies in practice: gay men's narratives of acute or recent HIV infection diagnosis

Diagnosing HIV-positive gay men through enhanced testing technologies that detect acute HIV infection (AHI) or recent HIV infection provides opportunities for individual and population health benefits. We recruited 25 men in British Columbia who received an acute (n = 13) or recent (n = 12) HIV diagnosis to engage in a longitudinal multiple-methods study over one year or longer. Our thematic analysis of baseline qualitative interviews revealed insights within men's accounts of technologically mediated processes of HIV discovery and diagnosis. Our analysis illuminated the dialectic of new HIV technologies in practice by considering the relationship between advances in diagnostics (e.g., nucleic acid amplification tests) and the users of these medical technologies in clinical settings (e.g., clients and practitioners). Technological innovations and testing protocols have shifted experiences of learning of one's HIV-positive status; these innovations have created new diagnostic categories that require successful interpretation and translation to be rendered meaningful, to alleviate uncertainty, and to support public health objectives.

Pooled nucleic acid testing increases the diagnostic yield of acute HIV infections in a high-risk population compared to 3rd and 4th generation HIV enzyme immunoassays

OBJECTIVES

We compared a 3rd generation (gen) and two 4th gen HIV enzyme immunoassays (EIA) to pooled nucleic acid testing (PNAT) for the identification of pre- and early seroconversion acute HIV infection (AHI).

STUDY DESIGN

9550 specimens from males >18 year from clinics attended by men who have sex with men were tested by Siemens ADVIA Centaur(®) HIV 1/O/2 (3rd gen) and HIV Combo (4th gen), as well as by Abbott ARCHITECT(®) HIV Ag/Ab Combo (4th gen). Third gen non-reactive specimens were also tested by Roche COBAS(®) Ampliprep/COBAS® TaqMan HIV-1 Test v.2 in pools of 24 samples. Sensitivity and specificity of the three EIAs for AHI detection were compared.

RESULTS

7348 persons contributed 9435 specimens and had no evidence of HIV infection, 79 (94 specimens) had established HIV infection, 6 (9 specimens) had pre-seroconversion AHI and 9 (12 specimens) had early seroconversion AHI. Pre-seroconversion AHI cases were not detected by 3rd gen EIA, whereas 2/6 (33.3%) were detected by Siemens 4th gen, 4/6 (66.7%) by Abbott 4th gen and 6/6 (100%) by PNAT. All three EIAs and PNAT detected all individuals with early seroconversion AHI. Overall sensitivity/specificity for the EIAs relative to WB or NAT resolved infection status was 93.6%/99.9% for Siemens 3rd gen, 95.7%/99.7% for Siemens 4th gen and 97.9%/99.2% for Abbott 4th gen.

CONCLUSIONS

While both 4th gen EIAs demonstrated improved sensitivity for AHI compared to 3rd gen EIA, PNAT identified more AHI cases than either 4th gen assay. PNAT is likely to remain a useful strategy to identify AHI in high-risk populations.

HIV-negative gay men's accounts of using context-dependent sero-adaptive strategies

We enrolled 166 gay and bisexual men who tested HIV-negative at a community sexual health clinic in Vancouver, British Columbia, into a year-long mixed-methods study. A subsample of participants who reported recent condomless anal sex (n = 33) were purposively recruited into an embedded qualitative study and completed two in-depth qualitative interviews. Analysis of baseline interviews elicited three narratives relevant to men's use of context- or relationally-dependent HIV-risk management strategies: (1) seroadaptive behaviours such as partner testing and negotiated safety agreements used with primary sexual partners, (2) serosorting and seroguessing when having sex with new partners and first-time hookups and (3) seroadaptive behaviours, including one or more of seropositioning/strategic positioning, condom serosorting and viral load sorting, used by participants who knowingly had sex with a serodiscordant partner. Within men's talk about sex, we found complex and frequently biomedically-informed rationale for seroadaptation in men's decisions to have what they understood to be various forms of safe or protected condomless anal sex. Our findings support the need for gay men's research and health promotion to meaningfully account for the multiple rationalities and seroadaptive strategies used for having condomless sex in order to be relevant to gay men's everyday sexual decision-making.

Feasibility of self-collection of specimens for human papillomavirus testing in hard-to-reach women

To study the feasibility of self-collected specimens for testing human papillomavirus (HPV) status among hard-to-reach women, outreach nurses recruited women in women's centres, shelters and alleys in Vancouver's Downtown Eastside. Of the 151 participants for whom samples were available, 43 (28.5%) tested positive for high-risk HPV. Outreach nurses were able to recontact 81.4% of the participants who tested positive and referred them for further testing. About 14% (21/151) of participants had never received a Papanicolaou smear in British Columbia, as compared with 8.3% (608/7336) of women in the BC general population (p < 0.05). This difference suggests that self-collection of specimens for HPV testing is a feasible method to reach women who have not previously participated in cervical cancer screening programs.

STD and HIV counseling practices of British Columbia primary care physicians

This study evaluated British Columbian primary care physicians' use of sexually transmitted disease (STD) and HIV counseling guidelines. The authors sought to assess barriers to integrated HIV and STD testing and counseling, with the objective of developing and revising practice guidelines to meet the needs of primary care physicians in diverse settings. The BC College of Physicians and Surgeons membership of general practice/family medicine practitioners was stratified by practitioner location; 1200 physicians were randomly selected to receive a mailed self-administered questionnaire. Four hundred seven completed questionnaires were returned. Female physicians reported better adherence to practice guidelines on many items than their male counterparts. A minority of primary care physicians routinely integrated HIV and STD testing and counseling. Physicians in nonurban areas were more likely to report that they lacked sufficient information on HIV and STD risk and prevention. Although male primary care physicians in British Columbia were more likely to provide care for people with HIV infection, female physicians were more likely to undertake ongoing screening for sexual risk behavior and sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among their HIV-positive patients. Clinical practice guidelines are theoretically equally available to all physicians, but they are not universally used. Physicians may not receive adequate training in sexual health during their medical education; continuing education opportunities may be limited to physicians outside of urban centres. Accessible and relevant continuing medical education in novel formats are needed to address the gap between ideal and actual practice in HIV and STD prevention, treatment, and care in Canada.

Use of incentives to increase compliance for TB screening in a population of intravenous drug users. Vancouver Injection Drug Use Study Group

SETTING

Intravenous drug users (IDUs) represent a high risk group for dual human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and tuberculosis (TB) infection. Screening with TB skin testing has therefore been suggested in this group. Subjects' compliance for returning to have TB skin test results read is a major problem. In the setting of a needle exchange program we evaluated the role of financial incentives to increase compliance.

METHODS

We evaluated the role of giving a small financial incentive of Can $5 to subjects if they returned to have their purified protein derivative (PPD) skin test read. IDUs who had previously been skin-tested were compared with IDUs drawn from a similar population who, prospectively, were offered a financial incentive.

RESULTS

During the initial period 558 subjects were evaluated and no incentive was offered. During the second phase of the study 549 IDUs were assessed but were also offered Can $5 if they returned to have their skin test read. Use of incentives increased compliance from 43% to 78% (P = 0.001). During the same period three active cases of TB were also diagnosed.

CONCLUSIONS

We suggest that use of financial incentives can increase the return of IDUs to have their skin tests read. Further studies are required to assess the efficacy of follow-up interventions, especially the use of isoniazid chemoprophylaxis.

Social determinants predict needle-sharing behaviour among injection drug users in Vancouver, Canada

Despite the fact that needle exchange was introduced in Vancouver as early as 1988, needle sharing remains common. An analysis was conducted to identify determinants of borrowing used needles among subjects participating in a case-control study. IDUs had a documented HIV seroconversion after 1 January, 1994 (n = 89), or repeatedly tested HIV-seronegative after this date (n = 192). Interviewer-administered questionnaires focused on drug use, sexual behaviours, source of needles and depression. Subjects were asked if they had "ever been forced to have sex" as a child, youth or adult. Logistic regression identified determinants of borrowing needles. After controlling for HIV serostatus, factors independently associated with borrowing were injecting > 4 times/day, polydrug use, and ever experiencing non-consensual sex (AOR = 3.4, 95% CI: 1.8, 6.5). Depression was associated with borrowing, although not independently so. Homosexual activity was independently associated with borrowing among males, whereas living with a sexual partner was an independent predictor for females. Access or barriers to clean needle use were not associated with borrowing. Social determinants, particularly a history of sexual abuse, are among the most significant predictors of needle borrowing among Vancouver's IDUs. Early identification of these factors should be a component of HIV prevention programmes.

Accuracy of a saliva test for HIV antibody

The accuracy of a saliva collection and testing protocol for determination of HIV-1 antibody status was assessed under realistic field conditions. The 1,256 study participants came from two lower-prevalence settings--a self-referral testing clinic (478) and a street-based outreach program (431)--and two high-prevalence clinics--an HIV/AIDS treatment clinic (337) and a hemophilia clinic (10). Saliva was collected using the Omni-Sal collection device and was tested by technicians blind to serum status using a modified protocol that employed the Recombigen HIV-1 EIA. Serum was tested using standard methods. A single saliva enzyme immunoassay (EIA) correctly identified 358 of 368 seropositive individuals, for a sensitivity of 97.3% (95% CI: 95.1%-98.7), and 888 of 888 seronegative individuals, for a specificity of 100% (95% CI: 99.6-100). Confirmation of saliva EIA positives with a repeat saliva EIA and an in-house saliva radioimmunoprecipitation assay resulted in a substantial drop in sensitivity to 85.3% (95% CI: 81.0-89.0). We conclude that a single saliva EIA using the modified test protocol described is sufficiently accurate for surveillance purposes, but we do not recommend it for diagnostic purposes or screening.

Prevalence of hemagglutination inhibition antibody to current strains of the H3N2 and H1N1 subtypes of influenza A virus in sera collected from the elderly in 1976

Sera were collected in 1976 from 182 individuals born between 1876-1935, who included patients in a large local nursing home in Orange County, California, and patients and staff at the University of California, Irvine Medical Center. Sera were treated with receptor-destroying enzyme and assayed for hemagglutination inhibition (HI) antibody to recent strains of influenza A virus. The antigens tested were: A/Victoria/3/76 and A/Texas/1/77 for subtype H3N2; A/New Jersey/8/76, A/X53 and A/Swine/1976 for the A/swine influenza virus-like strains of subtype H1N1; and A/Brazil/11/78, A/Fort Monmouth/1/47 and A/Francis Warren/1/50 for the A/Fort Monmouth/47 virus-like strains of subtype H1N1. For individuals grouped by five- and 10-year intervals of the year of birth, the geometric mean and standard error for HI antibody to each antigen were calculated and plotted vs. date of birth. The results indicate that for a majority of individuals born between 1876-1900, the level of HI antibody would be protective against H3N2 but not against the strains of H1N1. In addition, a majority of individuals born between 1900-1925 had levels of antibody that should be protective against both H3N2 and the A/swine influenza virus-like strains of H1N1 but not against the A/Fort Monmouth/47 virus-like strains of H1N1. These findings could be important when deciding on the antigenic composition of vaccines to be used in those age groups that are most vulnerable to the complications of influenza. In addition, data were obtained that suggest that the A/Fort Monmouth/47 virus-like strains of H1N1 recycle in 35-40 years rather than in 65-70 years as has been demonstrated previously for H2N2 and H3N2.