The Role of Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Associated Vasculopathy in the Etiology of Stroke

Background

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is a recognized risk factor for stroke among young populations, but the exact mechanisms are poorly understood. We studied the clinical, radiologic, and histologic features of HIV-related ischemic stroke to gain insight into the disease mechanisms.

Methods

We conducted a prospective, in-depth analysis of adult ischemic stroke patients presenting to Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, Malawi, in 2011.

Results

We recruited 64 HIV-infected and 107 HIV-uninfected patients. Those with HIV were significantly younger (P < .001) and less likely to have established vascular risk factors. Patients with HIV were more likely to have large artery disease (21% vs 10%; P < .001). The commonest etiology was HIV-associated vasculopathy (24 [38%]), followed by opportunistic infections (16 [25%]). Sixteen of 64 (25%) had a stroke soon after starting antiretroviral therapy (ART), suggesting an immune reconstitution-like syndrome. In this group, CD4+ T-lymphocyte count was low, despite a significantly lower HIV viral load in those recently started on treatment (P < .001).

Conclusions

HIV-associated vasculopathy and opportunistic infections are common causes of HIV-related ischemic stroke. Furthermore, subtypes of HIV-associated vasculopathy may manifest as a result of an immune reconstitution-like syndrome after starting ART. A better understanding of this mechanism may point toward new treatments.

Arterial ischemic stroke in HIV: Defining and classifying etiology for research studies

HIV infection, and potentially its treatment, increases the risk of an arterial ischemic stroke. Multiple etiologies and lack of clear case definitions inhibit progress in this field. Several etiologies, many treatable, are relevant to HIV-related stroke. To fully understand the mechanisms and the terminology used, a robust classification algorithm to help ascribe the various etiologies is needed. This consensus paper considers the strengths and limitations of current case definitions in the context of HIV infection. The case definitions for the major etiologies in HIV-related strokes were refined (e.g., varicella zoster vasculopathy and antiphospholipid syndrome) and in some instances new case definitions were described (e.g., HIV-associated vasculopathy). These case definitions provided a framework for an algorithm to help assign a final diagnosis, and help classify the subtypes of HIV etiology in ischemic stroke.

HIV, antiretroviral treatment, hypertension, and stroke in Malawian adults: A case-control study

Objective:

To investigate HIV, its treatment, and hypertension as stroke risk factors in Malawian adults.

Methods:

We performed a case-control study of 222 adults with acute stroke, confirmed by MRI in 86%, and 503 population controls, frequency-matched for age, sex, and place of residence, using Global Positioning System for random selection. Multivariate logistic regression models were used for case-control comparisons.

Results:

HIV infection (population attributable fraction [PAF] 15%) and hypertension (PAF 46%) were strongly linked to stroke. HIV was the predominant risk factor for young stroke (≤45 years), with a prevalence of 67% and an adjusted odds ratio (aOR) (95% confidence interval) of 5.57 (2.43–12.8) (PAF 42%). There was an increased risk of a stroke in patients with untreated HIV infection (aOR 4.48 [2.44–8.24], p < 0.001), but the highest risk was in the first 6 months after starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) (aOR 15.6 [4.21–46.6], p < 0.001); this group had a lower median CD4⁺ T-lymphocyte count (92 vs 375 cells/mm³, p = 0.004). In older participants (HIV prevalence 17%), HIV was associated with stroke, but with a lower PAF than hypertension (5% vs 68%). There was no interaction between HIV and hypertension on stroke risk.

Conclusions:

In a population with high HIV prevalence, where stroke incidence is increasing, we have shown that HIV is an important risk factor. Early ART use in immunosuppressed patients poses an additional and potentially treatable stroke risk. Immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome may be contributing to the disease mechanisms.

Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND

Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries.

METHODS

We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions.

FINDINGS

Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100,000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions.

INTERPRETATION

For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Prevalence and risk factors for active convulsive epilepsy in rural northeast South Africa

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Epilepsy is prevalent in rural South Africa, but less than other parts of Africa.

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Most epilepsy starts in childhood.

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Poor obstetric history and snoring were associated with active convulsive epilepsy.

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HIV and parasitic infection were not associated with active convulsive epilepsy.

Rationale

Epilepsy is among the most common neurological disorders worldwide. However, there are few large, population-based studies of the prevalence and risk factors for epilepsy in southern Africa.

Methods

From August 2008 to February 2009, as part of a multi-site study, we undertook a three-stage, population-based study, embedded within the Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance system, to estimate the prevalence and identify risk factors of active convulsive epilepsy (ACE) in a rural South African population.

Results

The crude prevalence of ACE, after adjusting for non-response and the sensitivity of the screening method, was 7.0/1,000 individuals (95%CI 6.4–7.6) with significant geographic heterogeneity across the study area. Being male (OR = 2.3; 95%CI 1.6–3.2), family history of seizures (OR = 4.0; 95%CI 2.0–8.1), a sibling with seizures (OR = 7.0; 95%CI 1.6–31.7), problems after delivery (OR = 5.9; 95%CI 1.2–24.6), and history of snoring (OR = 6.5; 95%CI 4.5–9.5) were significantly associated with ACE. For children, their mother's exposure to some formal schooling was protective (OR = 0.30; 95%CI 0.11–0.84) after controlling for age and sex. Human immunodeficiency virus was not found to be associated with ACE.

Conclusions

ACE is less frequent in this part of rural South Africa than other parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Improving obstetric services could prevent epilepsy. The relationship between snoring and ACE requires further investigation, as does the relative contribution of genetic and environmental factors to examine the increased risk in those with a family history of epilepsy.

Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Reliable and timely information on the leading causes of death in populations, and how these are changing, is a crucial input into health policy debates. In the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), we aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex.

METHODS

We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries. We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death. We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data. For 133 causes and three special aggregates we used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach, which uses four families of statistical models testing a large set of different models using different permutations of covariates. Model ensembles were developed from these component models. We assessed model performance with rigorous out-of-sample testing of prediction error and the validity of 95% UIs. For 13 causes with low observed numbers of deaths, we developed negative binomial models with plausible covariates. For 27 causes for which death is rare, we modelled the higher level cause in the cause hierarchy of the GBD 2010 and then allocated deaths across component causes proportionately, estimated from all available data in the database. For selected causes (African trypanosomiasis, congenital syphilis, whooping cough, measles, typhoid and parathyroid, leishmaniasis, acute hepatitis E, and HIV/AIDS), we used natural history models based on information on incidence, prevalence, and case-fatality. We separately estimated cause fractions by aetiology for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and meningitis, as well as disaggregations by subcause for chronic kidney disease, maternal disorders, cirrhosis, and liver cancer. For deaths due to collective violence and natural disasters, we used mortality shock regressions. For every cause, we estimated 95% UIs that captured both parameter estimation uncertainty and uncertainty due to model specification where CODEm was used. We constrained cause-specific fractions within every age-sex group to sum to total mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions.

FINDINGS

In 2010, there were 52·8 million deaths globally. At the most aggregate level, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes were 24·9% of deaths worldwide in 2010, down from 15·9 million (34·1%) of 46·5 million in 1990. This decrease was largely due to decreases in mortality from diarrhoeal disease (from 2·5 to 1·4 million), lower respiratory infections (from 3·4 to 2·8 million), neonatal disorders (from 3·1 to 2·2 million), measles (from 0·63 to 0·13 million), and tetanus (from 0·27 to 0·06 million). Deaths from HIV/AIDS increased from 0·30 million in 1990 to 1·5 million in 2010, reaching a peak of 1·7 million in 2006. Malaria mortality also rose by an estimated 19·9% since 1990 to 1·17 million deaths in 2010. Tuberculosis killed 1·2 million people in 2010. Deaths from non-communicable diseases rose by just under 8 million between 1990 and 2010, accounting for two of every three deaths (34·5 million) worldwide by 2010. 8 million people died from cancer in 2010, 38% more than two decades ago; of these, 1·5 million (19%) were from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer. Ischaemic heart disease and stroke collectively killed 12·9 million people in 2010, or one in four deaths worldwide, compared with one in five in 1990; 1·3 million deaths were due to diabetes, twice as many as in 1990. The fraction of global deaths due to injuries (5·1 million deaths) was marginally higher in 2010 (9·6%) compared with two decades earlier (8·8%). This was driven by a 46% rise in deaths worldwide due to road traffic accidents (1·3 million in 2010) and a rise in deaths from falls. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lower respiratory infections, lung cancer, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of death in 2010. Ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, stroke, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) in 2010, similar to what was estimated for 1990, except for HIV/AIDS and preterm birth complications. YLLs from lower respiratory infections and diarrhoea decreased by 45-54% since 1990; ischaemic heart disease and stroke YLLs increased by 17-28%. Regional variations in leading causes of death were substantial. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes still accounted for 76% of premature mortality in sub-Saharan Africa in 2010. Age standardised death rates from some key disorders rose (HIV/AIDS, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease in particular), but for most diseases, death rates fell in the past two decades; including major vascular diseases, COPD, most forms of cancer, liver cirrhosis, and maternal disorders. For other conditions, notably malaria, prostate cancer, and injuries, little change was noted.

INTERPRETATION

Population growth, increased average age of the world's population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases. Nevertheless, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes remain the dominant causes of YLLs in sub-Saharan Africa. Overlaid on this general pattern of the epidemiological transition, marked regional variation exists in many causes, such as interpersonal violence, suicide, liver cancer, diabetes, cirrhosis, Chagas disease, African trypanosomiasis, melanoma, and others. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of sound epidemiological assessments of the causes of death on a regular basis.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Reliable and timely information on the leading causes of death in populations, and how these are changing, is a crucial input into health policy debates. In the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), we aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex.

METHODS

We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries. We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death. We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data. For 133 causes and three special aggregates we used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach, which uses four families of statistical models testing a large set of different models using different permutations of covariates. Model ensembles were developed from these component models. We assessed model performance with rigorous out-of-sample testing of prediction error and the validity of 95% UIs. For 13 causes with low observed numbers of deaths, we developed negative binomial models with plausible covariates. For 27 causes for which death is rare, we modelled the higher level cause in the cause hierarchy of the GBD 2010 and then allocated deaths across component causes proportionately, estimated from all available data in the database. For selected causes (African trypanosomiasis, congenital syphilis, whooping cough, measles, typhoid and parathyroid, leishmaniasis, acute hepatitis E, and HIV/AIDS), we used natural history models based on information on incidence, prevalence, and case-fatality. We separately estimated cause fractions by aetiology for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and meningitis, as well as disaggregations by subcause for chronic kidney disease, maternal disorders, cirrhosis, and liver cancer. For deaths due to collective violence and natural disasters, we used mortality shock regressions. For every cause, we estimated 95% UIs that captured both parameter estimation uncertainty and uncertainty due to model specification where CODEm was used. We constrained cause-specific fractions within every age-sex group to sum to total mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions.

FINDINGS

In 2010, there were 52·8 million deaths globally. At the most aggregate level, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes were 24·9% of deaths worldwide in 2010, down from 15·9 million (34·1%) of 46·5 million in 1990. This decrease was largely due to decreases in mortality from diarrhoeal disease (from 2·5 to 1·4 million), lower respiratory infections (from 3·4 to 2·8 million), neonatal disorders (from 3·1 to 2·2 million), measles (from 0·63 to 0·13 million), and tetanus (from 0·27 to 0·06 million). Deaths from HIV/AIDS increased from 0·30 million in 1990 to 1·5 million in 2010, reaching a peak of 1·7 million in 2006. Malaria mortality also rose by an estimated 19·9% since 1990 to 1·17 million deaths in 2010. Tuberculosis killed 1·2 million people in 2010. Deaths from non-communicable diseases rose by just under 8 million between 1990 and 2010, accounting for two of every three deaths (34·5 million) worldwide by 2010. 8 million people died from cancer in 2010, 38% more than two decades ago; of these, 1·5 million (19%) were from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer. Ischaemic heart disease and stroke collectively killed 12·9 million people in 2010, or one in four deaths worldwide, compared with one in five in 1990; 1·3 million deaths were due to diabetes, twice as many as in 1990. The fraction of global deaths due to injuries (5·1 million deaths) was marginally higher in 2010 (9·6%) compared with two decades earlier (8·8%). This was driven by a 46% rise in deaths worldwide due to road traffic accidents (1·3 million in 2010) and a rise in deaths from falls. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lower respiratory infections, lung cancer, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of death in 2010. Ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, stroke, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) in 2010, similar to what was estimated for 1990, except for HIV/AIDS and preterm birth complications. YLLs from lower respiratory infections and diarrhoea decreased by 45-54% since 1990; ischaemic heart disease and stroke YLLs increased by 17-28%. Regional variations in leading causes of death were substantial. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes still accounted for 76% of premature mortality in sub-Saharan Africa in 2010. Age standardised death rates from some key disorders rose (HIV/AIDS, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease in particular), but for most diseases, death rates fell in the past two decades; including major vascular diseases, COPD, most forms of cancer, liver cirrhosis, and maternal disorders. For other conditions, notably malaria, prostate cancer, and injuries, little change was noted.

INTERPRETATION

Population growth, increased average age of the world's population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases. Nevertheless, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes remain the dominant causes of YLLs in sub-Saharan Africa. Overlaid on this general pattern of the epidemiological transition, marked regional variation exists in many causes, such as interpersonal violence, suicide, liver cancer, diabetes, cirrhosis, Chagas disease, African trypanosomiasis, melanoma, and others. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of sound epidemiological assessments of the causes of death on a regular basis.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs).

METHODS

Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis.

FINDINGS

Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350,000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient -0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Rates of YLDs per 100,000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time.

METHODS

We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions.

INTERPRETATION

Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

Reliable and timely information on the leading causes of death in populations, and how these are changing, is a crucial input into health policy debates. In the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), we aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex.

METHODS

We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries. We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death. We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data. For 133 causes and three special aggregates we used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach, which uses four families of statistical models testing a large set of different models using different permutations of covariates. Model ensembles were developed from these component models. We assessed model performance with rigorous out-of-sample testing of prediction error and the validity of 95% UIs. For 13 causes with low observed numbers of deaths, we developed negative binomial models with plausible covariates. For 27 causes for which death is rare, we modelled the higher level cause in the cause hierarchy of the GBD 2010 and then allocated deaths across component causes proportionately, estimated from all available data in the database. For selected causes (African trypanosomiasis, congenital syphilis, whooping cough, measles, typhoid and parathyroid, leishmaniasis, acute hepatitis E, and HIV/AIDS), we used natural history models based on information on incidence, prevalence, and case-fatality. We separately estimated cause fractions by aetiology for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and meningitis, as well as disaggregations by subcause for chronic kidney disease, maternal disorders, cirrhosis, and liver cancer. For deaths due to collective violence and natural disasters, we used mortality shock regressions. For every cause, we estimated 95% UIs that captured both parameter estimation uncertainty and uncertainty due to model specification where CODEm was used. We constrained cause-specific fractions within every age-sex group to sum to total mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions.

FINDINGS

In 2010, there were 52·8 million deaths globally. At the most aggregate level, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes were 24·9% of deaths worldwide in 2010, down from 15·9 million (34·1%) of 46·5 million in 1990. This decrease was largely due to decreases in mortality from diarrhoeal disease (from 2·5 to 1·4 million), lower respiratory infections (from 3·4 to 2·8 million), neonatal disorders (from 3·1 to 2·2 million), measles (from 0·63 to 0·13 million), and tetanus (from 0·27 to 0·06 million). Deaths from HIV/AIDS increased from 0·30 million in 1990 to 1·5 million in 2010, reaching a peak of 1·7 million in 2006. Malaria mortality also rose by an estimated 19·9% since 1990 to 1·17 million deaths in 2010. Tuberculosis killed 1·2 million people in 2010. Deaths from non-communicable diseases rose by just under 8 million between 1990 and 2010, accounting for two of every three deaths (34·5 million) worldwide by 2010. 8 million people died from cancer in 2010, 38% more than two decades ago; of these, 1·5 million (19%) were from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer. Ischaemic heart disease and stroke collectively killed 12·9 million people in 2010, or one in four deaths worldwide, compared with one in five in 1990; 1·3 million deaths were due to diabetes, twice as many as in 1990. The fraction of global deaths due to injuries (5·1 million deaths) was marginally higher in 2010 (9·6%) compared with two decades earlier (8·8%). This was driven by a 46% rise in deaths worldwide due to road traffic accidents (1·3 million in 2010) and a rise in deaths from falls. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lower respiratory infections, lung cancer, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of death in 2010. Ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, stroke, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) in 2010, similar to what was estimated for 1990, except for HIV/AIDS and preterm birth complications. YLLs from lower respiratory infections and diarrhoea decreased by 45-54% since 1990; ischaemic heart disease and stroke YLLs increased by 17-28%. Regional variations in leading causes of death were substantial. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes still accounted for 76% of premature mortality in sub-Saharan Africa in 2010. Age standardised death rates from some key disorders rose (HIV/AIDS, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease in particular), but for most diseases, death rates fell in the past two decades; including major vascular diseases, COPD, most forms of cancer, liver cirrhosis, and maternal disorders. For other conditions, notably malaria, prostate cancer, and injuries, little change was noted.

INTERPRETATION

Population growth, increased average age of the world's population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases. Nevertheless, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes remain the dominant causes of YLLs in sub-Saharan Africa. Overlaid on this general pattern of the epidemiological transition, marked regional variation exists in many causes, such as interpersonal violence, suicide, liver cancer, diabetes, cirrhosis, Chagas disease, African trypanosomiasis, melanoma, and others. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of sound epidemiological assessments of the causes of death on a regular basis.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

HIV infection and stroke: current perspectives and future directions

HIV infection can result in stroke via several mechanisms, including opportunistic infection, vasculopathy, cardioembolism, and coagulopathy. However, the occurrence of stroke and HIV infection might often be coincidental. HIV-associated vasculopathy describes various cerebrovascular changes, including stenosis and aneurysm formation, vasculitis, and accelerated atherosclerosis, and might be caused directly or indirectly by HIV infection, although the mechanisms are controversial. HIV and associated infections contribute to chronic inflammation. Combination antiretroviral therapies (cART) are clearly beneficial, but can be atherogenic and could increase stroke risk. cART can prolong life, increasing the size of the ageing population at risk of stroke. Stroke management and prevention should include identification and treatment of the specific cause of stroke and stroke risk factors, and judicious adjustment of the cART regimen. Epidemiological, clinical, biological, and autopsy studies of risk, the pathogenesis of HIV-associated vasculopathy (particularly of arterial endothelial damage), the long-term effects of cART, and ideal stroke treatment in patients with HIV are needed, as are antiretrovirals that are without vascular risk.

Understanding and managing hypertension in an African sub-district: a multidisciplinary approach

AIMS

To use a multidisciplinary approach to describe the prevalence, lay beliefs, health impact, and treatment of hypertension in the Agincourt sub-district.

METHODS

A multidisciplinary team used a range of methods including a cross-sectional random sample survey of vascular risk factors in adults aged 35 years and older, and rapid ethnographic assessment. People who had suffered a stroke were identified by a screening questionnaire followed by a detailed history and examination by a clinician to confirm the likely diagnosis of stroke. Workshops were held for nurses working in the local clinics and an audit of blood pressure measuring devices was carried out.

RESULTS

Some 43% of the population 35 and over had hypertension. There was no relationship with gender but a strong positive relationship with age. Illnesses were classified by the population as being either African, with personal or social causes, or White/Western, with physical causes. The causes of hypertension were stated to be both physical and social. Main sources of treatment were the clinics and hospitals but people also sought help from churches and traditional healers. Some 84% of stroke survivors had evidence of hypertension. Few people received treatment for hypertension, although good levels of control were achieved in some. Barriers to providing effective treatment included unreliable drug supply and unreliable equipment to measure blood pressure.

CONCLUSIONS

Hypertension is a major problem among older people in Agincourt. There is potential for effective secondary prevention. The potential for primary prevention is less clear. Further information on diet is required.

Burden of stroke in black populations in sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa is undergoing epidemiological transition. Stroke and other vascular diseases increasingly contribute to the burden of disease. There are no systematic reviews of stroke mortality, prevalence, incidence, and case fatality. We combined a thorough search and critical assessment of the published research. Stroke mortality is as high, perhaps higher, than in high-income regions and increases with age in sub-Saharan Africa as in high-income countries, but the absolute number of stroke deaths remains low. There are no adequate community-based stroke incidence studies. Hospital-based incidence is lower than in high-income regions, but higher in young people, possibly due to hospital admission bias. There are no community-based data on case fatality, but hospital-based case fatality is higher than elsewhere. The prevalence of stroke is lower than in high-income regions, but disabling stroke is as prevalent. As the region develops economically, the incidence of stroke and other vascular diseases will increase unless interventions are implemented. Only community-based incidence studies will accurately reveal the burden of stroke.

Accuracy of the Siriraj and Guy’s Hospital Stroke Scores in Urban South Africans

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The burden of stroke in sub-Saharan Africa is already high and likely to increase, but few patients with stroke have access to brain imaging. Distinguishing pathologic stroke types is relevant both for clinical management and epidemiologic studies. We assessed the accuracy of two stroke scores in distinguishing stroke types in a population known to have a high prevalence of intracranial hemorrhage but low prevalence of atherosclerosis and compared them with the clinicians' assessment of stroke type with computed tomography brain scanning as the "gold standard."

METHODS

We assessed the stroke scores and the clinicians' blind assessment of pathologic stroke type in consecutive black patients with stroke included in the Johannesburg Hospital Stroke Register over 23 months. We calculated the accuracy of the scores and clinicians compared with computed tomography brain scan (sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, likelihood ratio, kappa statistic).

RESULTS

Two hundred twenty-two patients were scanned and assessed within 15 days. Sixty-two (28%) had cerebral hemorrhage and nine (4%) subarachnoid hemorrhage. Neither the Siriraj (sub-Saharan Africa) nor Guy's Hospital score was accurate or offered much advantage over clinician assessment (sensitivity 0.60 and 0.34, specificity 0.88 and 0.95 for intracranial hemorrhage in the Siriraj Stroke Score and Guy's Hospital Stroke Score, respectively; sensitivity 0.70 and 0.71, specificity 0.84 and 0.74, respectively, for ischemic stroke). Although the scores were more accurate when we used new cutoff points, they then failed to diagnose over 80% of stroke types.

CONCLUSIONS

The Siriraj Stroke Score and Guy's Hospital Stroke Score are not sufficiently accurate for use in either epidemiologic studies or to guide clinical management in sub-Saharan Africa at present.

Distribution of a subclinical marker of cardiovascular risk, the ankle brachial index, in a rural African population: SASPI study

BACKGROUND

In sub-Saharan Africa, hypertension and stroke are emerging as an important cause of death and disability, whereas coronary heart disease appears still to be uncommon. The aim of our study was to measure for the first time in an African population the ankle brachial index (ABI), which is known to be a good marker of subclinical atheroma and of the risk of future cardiovascular events.

METHODS

The study was part of the Southern African Stroke Prevention Initiative (SASPI). It comprised a cross-sectional survey conducted in rural north-east South Africa in the sub-district of Agincourt, in which the demography of the population has been closely monitored. A stratified sample of 10 villages were selected and within these a random sample was chosen of 526 men and women aged 35 years and older. Subjects were visited on up to three occasions to be interviewed and have a clinical examination by specially trained nurses. This included an assessment of cardiovascular risk factors and measurement of the ABI (ratio of ankle : brachial systolic pressure) using a Doppler ultrasound machine.

RESULTS

The sample comprised 322 subjects in whom the mean ABI (lower of either leg) was 1.05 in both men and women. The distribution of ABI was negatively skewed and a low ABI of 0.9 or less, indicative of significant atheroma and higher cardiovascular risk, increased with age from 3.9% in 40-49 year olds to 39.7% in those aged 70 years and older. Lower ABI was related to current cigarette smoking (P=0.02) and higher systolic and diastolic blood pressure (P<0.01, P=0.02, respectively) but not total cholesterol levels, which were relatively low in this population (mean 4.47 mmol/l).

CONCLUSION

The distribution of the ABI in this rural African population was very similar to that reported in western populations, and suggests that this population has subclinical peripheral atheroma and is at an increased risk of future cardiovascular events, thus providing further evidence of an epidemiological transition towards cardiovascular disease.

Blood pressure-measuring devices in rural South Africa: an audit conducted by the SASPI team in the Agincourt field site

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in South Africa. The Southern Africa Stroke Prevention Initiative (SASPI) found a high prevalence of stroke in the rural Agincourt subdistrict, Limpopo province. Hypertension is the commonest vascular risk factor in our population and it is essential that primary care services be adequately equipped to detect and treat hypertension. The aim of this study was to assess the number, accuracy and working condition of blood pressure measuring devices (BMD) in the clinics that serve the field site, and to assess the clinic sisters' perceptions of the availability of antihypertensive medication and aspirin.

METHODS

In each of the clinics serving the site we assessed the BMDs and cuffs using the following criteria: general condition, bladder size, state of rubber components, operation of the inlet valve and control of valve operation. The legibility of the gauge, level and condition of the mercury, and the condition of the glass tube were checked when relevant. The performance of the BMD was then assessed both with the cuff used in the clinic and with a new functioning cuff, against an accurate mercury sphygmomanometer. By interviewing the clinic sister we could assess the availability of antihypertensive medication and aspirin, as well as the state of the drug delivery system.

RESULTS

All BMDs were mercury sphygmomanometers. Four clinics had one BMD each, one clinic had two, and one clinic had four. In one clinic the device was not functional at all until the study cuff was used. None of the clinics had spare cuffs and only one clinic had access to a large cuff. Nine out of 10 (90%) cuffs tested had unsatisfactory valve function, and none was of the size recommended by the guidelines. Although the condition of the mercury was only considered satisfactory in 40% of BMDs, once a new cuff had been fitted to the BMDs all of them were accurate to within 4 mmHg between 50 and 250 mmHg. Fifty per cent of clinic sisters felt they always had sufficient stock of hydrochlorothiazide and alpha-methyldopa, but the supply of more expensive medication was less reliable. Only one clinic always had sufficient aspirin.

CONCLUSION

Although none of the primary care clinics had fully functioning BMDs, almost all the defects related to malfunctioning and inappropriately sized cuffs, which would be inexpensive to repair or replace. A procedure for routine servicing or replacement of both BMDs and cuffs is needed, as well as optimisation of medication delivery to remote areas.

Erythrocyte sedimentation rate as a marker of inflammation and ongoing coagulation in stroke and transient ischaemic attack

OBJECTIVE

Systemic infection and inflammation have been implicated in the aetiology of thrombotic cerebral events, particularly in younger patients. We decided to determine whether those patients with raised D-dimer levels, indicating continuing thrombosis and fibrinolysis, had evidence of concurrent infection or inflammation as manifested by a raised erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) measured after an ischaemic stroke/transient ischaemic attack (TIA).

METHODS

One hundred and forty-eight patients who had suffered either single or recurrent cerebrovascular episodes were analysed. The patients were referred to the thrombosis and haemostasis unit at Johannesburg Hospital for evaluation of their thrombotic profiles, including D-dimer levels. Concurrent infection was assessed by measurement of white cell count (WCC) and ESR. The variable time interval between the date of the most recent cerebrovascular event and the date of venesection was determined. A history was taken, a physical and neurological examination was performed, and a cardiology assessment and neuroimaging studies were done.

RESULTS

Raised D-dimer levels correlated significantly with ESR levels (p = 0.0094) in all patients. This was particularly evident when comparing the 70 younger patients (aged less than 45 years) with the 78 older patients (> 45 years) with raised D-dimers (p = 0.0070). When analysing other markers of inflammation/infection in association with raised D-dimer levels and ESR, mean fibrinogen levels were significantly raised at 6.56 g/l (p = 0.0122). An elevated WCC, as a categorical variable, was significantly associated with an elevated ESR (p = 0.0092).

CONCLUSION

There is a significant correlation between elevated D-dimer levels (indicating abnormalities of coagulation and fibrinolysis) and markers of inflammatory and/or infective processes. This is particularly evident in black patients below the age of 45 years. These patients are believed to be at decreased risk for generalised atheromatous disease compared with older white patients. The ramifications of these findings are potentially important with regard to thrombotic cerebrovascular disease aetiology, investigation, management and prevention.

Secondary prevention of stroke--results from the Southern Africa Stroke Prevention Initiative (SASPI) study

OBJECTIVE

To describe the prevalence of risk factors and experience of preventive interventions in stroke survivors, and identilfy barriers to secondary prevention in rural South Africa.

METHODS

A clinician visited individuals in the Agincourt field site (in South Africa's rural north east) who were identified in a census as possible stroke victims to confirm the diagnosis of stroke. We explored the impact of stroke on the individual's family, and health-seeking behaviour following stroke by conducting in-depth interviews in the households of 35 stroke survivors. We held two workshops to understand the knowledge, experience, and views of primary care nurses, who provide the bulk of professional health care.

FINDINGS

We identified 103 stroke survivors (37 men), 73 (71%) of whom had hypertension, but only 8 (8%) were taking anti-hypertensive treatment. Smoking was uncommon; 8 men and 1 woman smoked a maximum of ten cigarettes daily. 94 (91%) stroke survivors had sought help, which involved allopathic health care for most of them (81; 79%). 42 had also sought help from traditional healers and churches, while another 13 people had sought help only from those sources. Of the 35 survivors who were interviewed, 29 reported having been prescribed anti-hypertensive pills after their stroke. Barriers to secondary prevention included cost of treatment, reluctance to use pills, difficulties with access to drugs, and lack of equipment to measure blood pressure. A negative attitude to allopathic care was not an important factor.

CONCLUSION

In this rural area hypertension is the most important modifiable risk factor in stroke survivors. Effective secondary prevention may reduce the incidence of recurrent strokes, but there is no system to deliver such care. New strategies for care are needed involving both allopathic and non-allopathic-health care providers.

Prevalence of stroke survivors in rural South Africa: results from the Southern Africa Stroke Prevention Initiative (SASPI) Agincourt field site

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The importance of stroke in low-income regions such as sub-Saharan Africa has recently been emphasized. However, little is known about the burden of stroke in sub-Saharan Africa. We investigated the prevalence of stroke survivors in the Agincourt Health and Population Unit, a demographic surveillance site in the rural northeast of South Africa.

METHODS

Census workers asked household informants 2 screening questions for stroke during the annual census. If either question was answered positively, a clinician visited individuals aged > or =15 years to confirm the likely diagnosis of stroke. We performed a detailed assessment and defined stroke according to the World Health Organization criteria.

RESULTS

A total of 42 378 individuals were aged > or =15 years. There were 982 positive responses to the questionnaire, and we examined 724 individuals (74%). We identified 103 strokes (crude prevalence, 243/100 000). After adjustment for those we did not examine, the prevalence was 300/100 000 (95% CI, 250 to 357). Sixty-six percent of stroke survivors needed help with at least 1 activity of daily living (Segi age-standardized prevalence, 200/100 000).

CONCLUSIONS

Stroke prevalence in rural South Africa is higher than previously documented in Africa but lower than in high-income countries. However, the prevalence of stroke survivors requiring help with at least 1 activity of daily living is already at high-income country levels. South Africa suffers from a huge burden of HIV/AIDS and diseases of poverty and violence and now faces the challenge of adapting its health systems to face the coming epidemic of vascular disease.

Cerebral infarction in adult AIDS patients: observations from the Edinburgh HIV Autopsy Cohort

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Autopsy series of patients with AIDS have found a 4% to 29% prevalence of cerebral infarction. Little is known of the prevalence of cerebral infarction when not associated with non-HIV central nervous system (CNS) infection, lymphoma, or cardioembolic sources. Clinical correlation has seldom been available. We describe the pathological and clinical features of patients from the Edinburgh HIV Cohort Study found to have had cerebral infarcts without evidence of non-HIV CNS infection, CNS lymphoma, or cardioembolic sources at autopsy.

METHODS

From 183 autopsy cases, 26 without evidence of opportunistic cerebral infection or lymphoma were selected. These 26 cases went through a second selection process in which the presence of cerebral infarction, in the absence of the conditions mentioned, was verified. Histology and clinical records for the remaining patients were reviewed.

RESULTS

Ten (5.5%) cases fulfilled the inclusion criteria and demonstrated similar hypoxic-ischemic lesions. Small-vessel thickening was seen in all cases, and perivascular space dilatation, rarefaction, and pigment deposition, with vessel wall mineralization and perivascular inflammatory cell infiltrates, were seen in some cases. Vasculitis was not found. One patient had had a transient ischemic attack, and no patient had had a stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

Cerebral infarcts in HIV-infected patients are not common in the absence of cerebral non-HIV infection, lymphoma, or embolic sources. We found an HIV-associated vasculopathy with similar features in all risk groups. In AIDS patients presenting with stroke or transient ischemic attack, potentially treatable causes, such as cerebral coinfection or tumor, should be sought.

Evaluating the effectiveness of the utilization management program

The cost of health care continues to be a matter of great concern to purchasers of service. In an effort to control their expenditures, many employers, insur ers, health maintenance organizations, and preferred provider organizations are assessing the effectiveness of their current cost-containment programs and im plementing more stringent approaches where indi cated. To respond to this situation, hospitals must develop effective utilization management programs that are designed to identify and resolve problems before they come to the attention of outside organi zations. Every aspect of the program should be eval uated periodically to assure that it is effective and continues to meet the needs of the hospital, its medical staff, and its patients. This paper describes the factors that make effective utilization management manda tory today and outlines a methodology for assessing effectiveness.