Characteristics of patients with a regular source of care

This study was designed to describe patient characteristics associated with having a regular source of care among all patients who received care from large urban clinics in Manitoba over a three-year period (N = 298,222). Using administrative data, patients were classified as having a regular source of care if they made 75% or more of their total ambulatory visits to the same clinic. Overall, 44.2% of patients had a regular source of care. A logistic regression showed that children and adults aged 45 and older were more likely to have a regular source of care than patients aged 18-44. Moreover, patients with a regular source of care tended to live in more affluent neighbourhoods and were healthier than individuals with no regular source of care. Systemic changes might be needed to enhance continuity of care (e.g., mechanisms to enhance access) among vulnerable segments of the population like the poor.

How many surgeons does a province need, and how do we determine appropriate numbers?

The study compared each province's supply of surgeons in three specialities (ophthalmologists--orthopedic--surgeons, and cardiac and thoracic surgeons) with the rates of key procedures (cataract removal, hip and knee replacement, and coronary artery bypass) that residents received. We found little or no relationship between the supply of surgeons and a population's surgery rate. We conclude that the supply of surgical specialists is the wrong focus for health care resource planning.

Monitoring health reform: a report card approach

During the past several years, budget cuts have forced hospitals in several countries to change the way they deliver care. Gilson (Gilson, L. (1998).

DISCUSSION

In defence and pursuit of equity. Social Science & Medicine, 47(12), 1891-1896) has argued that, while health reforms are designed to improve efficiency, they have considerable potential to harm equity in the delivery of health care services. It is essential to monitor the impact of health reforms, not only to ensure the balance between equity and efficiency, but also to determine the effect of reforms on such things as access to care and the quality of care delivered. This paper proposes a framework for monitoring these and other indicators that may be affected by health care reform. Application of this framework is illustrated with data from Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. Despite the closure of almost 24% of the hospital beds in Winnipeg between 1992 and 1996, access to care and quality of care remained generally unchanged. Improvements in efficiency occurred without harming the equitable delivery of health care services. Given our increasing understanding of the weak links between health care and health, improving efficiency within the health care system may actually be a prerequisite for addressing equity issues in health.

What is right about the Canadian health care system?

Canadians tend to dwell on problems in their health care system, looking to the United States for magical fixes. Evidence on comparative system performance, which rarely surfaces in public debate, indicates that Canadians are healthier, not only because the social environment is more benign, but also because health care is allocated by need rather than ability to pay. Expenditures are much lower, but Canadians receive equivalent care because their system is more efficient. Although Canadian "waiting lists" are highly publicized, the United States avoids the issue by excluding those who cannot pay. Why, then, do American notions keep pushing north? All expenditures are someone's income. There is a great deal of money to be made by wrecking Canadian Medicare.

Monitoring the impact of hospital downsizing on access to care and quality of care

The most recent data used for monitoring the potential effects of bed closures in Winnipeg hospitals since 1992/93 found that despite downsizing, access to care was by no means compromised. Just as many patients were cared for in 1995/96 as in 1991/92. Changes in patterns of care included more outpatient and fewer inpatient surgeries, and a decrease in the number of hospital days. The number of high-profile surgical procedures, such as angioplasty, bypass, and cataract surgery, performed increased dramatically during downsizing. Quality of care delivered to patients, measured by mortality and readmission rates, was unaffected by bed closures. Of particular concern was the impact of downsizing on the two most vulnerable health groups--the elderly and Manitobans in the lowest income group. Access and quality of care for these groups also remained unchanged. However, those in the lowest income group spent almost 43% more days in hospital than those in the middle income group, and research demonstrates that these variations in hospital use across socioeconomic groups reflect real and important health differences and are not driven by social reasons for admissions. Finally, a large decrease in waiting time for nursing home placement underlines the relationship between downsizing and availability of alternatives to hospitalization.

Standard cost lists for healthcare in Canada. Issues in validity and inter-provincial consolidation

A standard cost list is a listing of recommended costs for a selected group of services. Standard costs are used in economic evaluation studies to eliminate that proportion of cost differences between interventions that are due to cost differences between providers. In this article we provide a summary of cost lists for pharmaceutical economic evaluation purposes which have been developed in 2 provinces in Canada-Alberta and Manitoba. We then assess these 2 lists from 2 different viewpoints. First, we developed criteria for the internal and external validity of costs and, in light of these validity criteria, we assessed how the 2 standard cost lists compared with the 'ideal' measure of long run marginal costs. Second, we identified the criteria for the inter-provincial consolidation of standard cost measures (in order to develop a single, consolidated cost list); in light of these criteria, we assessed whether the degree to which the 2 separate lists could be consolidated. The lists achieved a considerable degree of external validity, but fared less well in terms of internal validity. However, these results depend on the 'ideal' measure of cost which is used. The lists, in the forms which were developed, are not easily consolidated into a single list. Further refined cost data would be needed in order to achieve consolidation.

The unintended and unexpected impact of downsizing: costly hospitals become more costly

OBJECTIVES

In this project we assessed the impact of 1992 budget cuts ($50 million, or approximately 7% of urban hospitals' budgets) on the relative costliness of Manitoba's hospitals. The cuts targeted the teaching hospitals, those institutions we had found to be particularly costly in a previous Manitoba Centre for Health Policy and Evaluation study.

RESULTS

Unexpectedly, we found that because budget cuts were smaller proportionately than the number of beds closed, the care at the teaching hospitals (as well as at several other hospitals) became relatively more, not less, costly. Also quite contrary to public perceptions, once other expenditures such as new hospital programs and expansions were accounted for, the actual change in urban hospital expenditures over the years compared was less than 1%.

CONCLUSIONS

The study highlighted the importance of monitoring program outcomes.

Establishing a population data-based policy unit

The Manitoba Centre for Health Policy and Evaluation (MCHPE) developed POPULIS, a population-based health information system, as a vehicle for changing the way we think about the role of health care as a determinant of health. Serving as a bridge between analysts who produce research and politicians and policymakers who use it, MCHPE has developed a research infrastructure that can transform routinely collected administrative data into policy-relevant information. This paper provides a description of Manitoba and its health care system, as well as how MCHPE was started and how it functions. It describes how we at the Centre work with various databases, from the acquisition process through developing concepts and capabilities to the final validity and sensitivity testing of results. We detail the role of a population-based conceptual framework in challenging those who suggest more spending on medical care is self-evidently desirable.

Issues in planning for specialist physicians

OBJECTIVES

The Manitoba Centre for Health Policy and Evaluation worked in support of a provincial Physician Resource Committee to address questions pertinent to assessing Manitoba's supply of specialist physicians.

RESEARCH DESIGN

Because there was no direct method of determining whether the province's supply of specialists was adequate, three types of evidence were reviewed: the supply of specialists relative to recommended population/physician ratios; the supply of specialists relative to other Canadian provinces; and the level of care delivered by specialists in Manitoba relative to other provinces. Four additional questions were addressed: is a problem developing from the aging of Manitoba's specialist physicians? and will the supply of specialists be sufficient to keep up with the aging of the population? How well do specialists serve as a provincial resource? and how well do specialists serve high-need populations?

Managing health services: how the Population Health Information System (POPULIS) works for policymakers

OBJECTIVES

University-based researchers in Manitoba, Canada, have used administrative data routinely collected as part of the national health insurance plan to design an integrated database and population-based health information system. This information system is proving useful to policymakers for answering such questions as: Which populations need more physician services? Which need fewer? Are high-risk populations poorly served? or do they have poor health outcomes despite being well served? Does high utilization represent overuse? or is it related to high need? More specifically, this system provides decision makers with the capability to make critical comparisons across regions and subregions of residents' health status, socioeconomic risk characteristics and use of hospitals, nursing homes, and physicians. The system permits analyses of demographic changes, expenditure patterns, and hospital performance in relation to the population served. The integrated database has also facilitated outcomes research across hospitals and countries, utilization review within a single hospital, and longitudinal research on health reform. The discussion highlights the strengths of integrated population-based information in analyzing the health care system and raising important questions about the relationship between health care and health.

A comparative study of the costliness of Manitoba hospitals

OBJECTIVES

In light of ongoing discussions about health care policy, this study offered a method of calculating costs at Manitoba hospitals that compared relative costliness of inpatient care provided in each hospital.

RESEARCH DESIGN

This methodology also allowed comparisons across types of hospitals-teaching, community, major rural, intermediate and small rural, as well as northern isolated facilities.

MEASURES

Data used in this project include basic hospital information, both financial and statistical, for each of the Manitoba hospitals, hospital charge information by case from the State of Maryland, and hospital discharge abstract information for Manitoba. The data from Maryland were used to create relative cost weights (RCWs) for refined diagnostic related groups (RDRGs) and were subsequently adjusted for Manitoba length of stay. These case weights were then applied to cases in Manitoba hospitals, and several other adjustments were made for nontypical cases. This case mix system allows cost comparisons across hospitals.

RESULTS

In general, hospital case mix costing demonstrated variability in hospital costliness, not only across types of hospitals but also within hospitals of the same type and size.

CONCLUSIONS

Costs at the teaching hospitals were found to be considerably higher than the average, even after accounting for acuity and case mix.

From research to policy: what have we learned?

The Manitoba Centre for Health Policy and Evaluation has now had eight years of experience as an academic research unit interfacing with policymakers. Most of our research has focused on the determinants of health and on the delivery of health care from a population perspective. Each project that we have undertaken has made its own contribution and reinforced or built on the contribution of others. By communicating closely with policymakers at all levels, while maintaining an arm's-length relationship and the right of publication, MCHPE acts as a knowledgeable non-stakeholder with a commitment to inform the broader public.

Needs-based planning for generalist physicians

OBJECTIVES

The Manitoba Centre for Health Policy and Evaluation (MCHPE) collaborated with a provincially-appointed Physician Resource Committee in an assessment of provincial physician resources.

RESEARCH DESIGN

Beginning with map-based analyses of physician supply and contacts across the province, compared with the health and socioeconomic characteristics of local populations, the study moved to a needs-based, regression-based approach to physician resource planning.

RESULTS

The results challenged the popular belief that Manitoba suffers from an increasing shortage of physicians. A handful of high-need, low-supply and low-use areas are identified, as is the expensive surplus of generalist physicians in Winnipeg. (Generalist physicians include general and family practitioners as well as general internists and pediatricians.) No relationship between physician supply and health characteristics of populations, or between high physician supply and low hospital use patterns were found. Given the Committee's interest in what drives high physician contact rates, analyses of visit patterns of hypertensive patients were undertaken. We found that patients who had more complex medical conditions made more contacts, but that after controlling for this and other key patient characteristics, the patient's primary care physician's patient recall rate was a strong influence on how frequently visits were made.

Factors influencing the frequency of visits by hypertensive patients to primary care physicians in Winnipeg

BACKGROUND

As part of a recent project focused on needs-based planning for generalist physicians, the authors documented the variety of practice styles of primary care physicians for managing patients with hypertension. They investigated the validity of various explanations for these different styles and the relative contributions of physician and patient characteristics to the rates at which hypertensive patients contact physicians.

METHODS

Retrospective descriptive study using regression analyses to simultaneously adjust for the influence of key patient and physician characteristics. Hypertensive patients in Winnipeg were identified using Manitoba physician claims data for fiscal years 1993/94 and 1994/95. Patients were included if they were 25 years of age or more and had at least one physician contact in both 1993/94 and 1994/95 during which hypertension was diagnosed. In addition, the primary care physician had to be the physician that the patient contacted most frequently in 1993/94 and 1994/95 and with whom she or he had at least 2 visits during this period. Only patients of family practitioners whose practice included at least 50 hypertensive patients were included.

RESULTS

To control for the effects of large samples and to validate the results, the authors conducted all analyses for half (6282) the sample of hypertensive patients who met the study criteria (12,563). A total of 132 primary care physicians who met the study criteria were identified. The patients made on average 9.3 ambulatory visits to physicians (both general practitioners and specialists) in 1994/95. Those who had more complex medical conditions (i.e., were formally referred to a specialist), those who had 3 or more serious medical problems and those who had been admitted to hospital made more visits to their primary care physician than those without these characteristics. After these and other key patient characteristics were controlled for, a primary care physician's patient recall rate in 1993/94 was strongly related to the number of visits his or her hypertensive patients made to all doctors for any reason in 1994/95. Physicians with high patient recall rates (i.e., who saw their hypertensive patients on average 8 or more times) in 1993/94 also had high recall rates in 1994/95.

INTERPRETATION

Because patient characteristics most strongly associated with high visit rates were those reflecting patient illness, policy measures aimed at patients (e.g., user fees and deinsurance) do not appear to be the appropriate policy tool for dealing with high visit rates. Given the influence of a physician's patient recall rate on patient visit patterns, physician profiling and feedback may prove more appropriate.

How many physicians does Canada need to care for our aging population?

BACKGROUND

There is concern that the aging of Canada's population will strain our health care system. The authors address this concern by examining changes in the physician supply between 1986 and 1994 and by assessing the availability of physicians in 1994 relative to population growth and aging, and relative to supply levels in the benchmark province of Alberta.

METHODS

Physician numbers were obtained from the Canadian Institute for Health Information. The amount of services provided by each specialty to each patient age group was analysed using Manitoba physician claims data. Population growth statistics were obtained from Statistics Canada. Age- and specialty-specific utilization data and age-specific population growth patterns were used to estimate the number and type of physicians that would have been required in each province to keep up with population growth between 1986 and 1994, in comparison with actual changes in the physician numbers. Physician supply in Alberta was used as a benchmark against which other provinces were measured.

RESULTS

Overall, Canada's physician supply between 1986 and 1994 kept pace with population growth and aging. Some specialties grew much faster than population changes warranted, whereas others grew more slowly. By province, the supply of general practitioners (GPs) grew much faster than the population served in New Brunswick (16.6%), Alberta (6.5%) and Quebec (5.3%); the GP supply lagged behind in Prince Edward Island (-5.4%). Specialist supply outpaced population growth substantially in Nova Scotia (10.4%), Newfoundland (8.5%), New Brunswick (7.3%) and Saskatchewan (6.8%); it lagged behind in British Columbia (-9.2%). Using Alberta as the benchmark resulted in a different assessment: Newfoundland (15.5%) and BC (11.7%) had large surpluses of GPs by 1994, whereas PEI (-21.1%), New Brunswick (-14.8%) and Manitoba (-11.1%) had substantial deficits; Quebec (37.3%), Ontario (24.0%), Nova Scotia (11.6%), Manitoba (8.2%) and BC (7.6%) had large surpluses of specialists by 1994, whereas PEI (-28.6%), New Brunswick (-25.9%) and Newfoundland (-23.8%) had large deficits.

INTERPRETATION

The aging of Canada's population poses no threat of shortage to the Canadian physician supply in general, nor to most specialist groups. The marked deviations in provincial physician supply from that of the benchmark province challenge us to understand the costs and benefits of variations in physician resources across Canada and to achieve a more equitable needs-based availability of physicians within provinces and across the country.

Managing health services: how administrative data and population-based analyses can focus the agenda

University-based researchers in Manitoba, Canada, have used administrative data routinely collected as part of the national health insurance plan to design an integrated database and population-based health information system. This information system is proving useful to policymakers for providing answers to such questions as: which populations need more physician services? Which need fewer? Are high-risk populations poorly served or do they have poor health outcomes despite being well served? Does high utilization represent overuse or utilization related to high need? More specifically, this system provides decision-makers with the capability to make critical comparisons across regions and subregions of residents' health status, socioeconomic risk characteristics, and use of hospitals, nursing homes, and physicians. The system permits analyses of demographic changes, expenditure patterns, and hospital performance in relation to the population served. The integrated database has also facilitated outcomes research across hospitals and counties, utilization review within a single hospital, and longitudinal research on health reform. A particularly interesting application to planning physician supply and distribution is discussed. The discussion highlights the strengths of integrated population-based information in analyzing the health care system and raising important questions about the relationship between health care and health.

A comparison of ambulatory care and selected procedure rates in the health care systems of the Province of Manitoba, Canada; Kaiser Permanente Health Maintenance Organization; and the United States

To determine if there are differences in physician services in different health care systems, we compared ambulatory visit rates and procedure rates for three surgical procedures in the province of Manitoba, Canada; Kaiser Permanente Health Maintenance Organization; and the United States. The KP system, with its single payer and low financial barriers, is not unlike the Canadian system. But, for most of the United States, the primary payment mechanism is fee-for-service, with the patient paying a significant amount, thereby militating against preventive and early primary care. Manitoba and KP data were extracted from computerized administrative records. U.S. data were obtained from publicly available reports. Manitoba provides 1.8 times and KP 1.2 times (1.4 when allied health visits are included) as many primary care physician visits as the United States. For the surgical procedures studied, U.S. rates were higher than those in either the KP HMO or in Manitoba. We conclude that (1) the U.S. system leads to more surgical intervention, and (2) removal of financial barriers leads to higher use of primary care services where more preventive and ameliorative care can occur.

Needs-based planning: the case of Manitoba

OBJECTIVE

To illustrate the use of needs-based planning in the identification of physician surpluses and deficits and of resource misallocations within a provincial medical system at a time when provincial governments and medical associations across the country are faced with funding constraints for physician services.

DESIGN

For each of 4 regions in Manitoba, the authors analysed residents' rates of physician visits (whether within the resident's own or another region). Residents' need for physician contact was estimated by means of a statistical analysis of the data on contacts in relation to age, sex and health-related indicators, and the rates of visits needed and actually made were compared.

PARTICIPANTS

All Manitoba residents.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Numbers of generalist physicians (general practitioners, family physicians, general internists and general pediatricians) needed to serve each region, and the extent of physician surplus and deficit in each region.

RESULTS

There appeared to be a surplus of physicians in most of urban Manitoba but deficits in northern Manitoba and some parts of the rural south. General internists and general pediatricians in Winnipeg provide a significant part of the ambulatory care that is provided by general practitioners in other parts of the province. The provincial government currently spends more per resident to provide physician services in areas of physician surplus than in areas of physician deficit, although the patterns are inconsistent.

CONCLUSIONS

Needs-based planning is possible. If provinces are intent on controlling physician numbers and expenditures, it makes sense to manage the implications of doing so.

Inappropriate hospital use by patients receiving care for medical conditions: targeting utilization review

OBJECTIVE

To describe characteristics associated with inappropriate hospital use by patients in Manitoba in order to help target concurrent utilization review. Utilization review was developed to reduce inappropriate hospital use but can be a very resource-intensive process.

DESIGN

Retrospective chart review of a sample of adult patients who received care for medical conditions in a sample of Manitoba hospitals during the fiscal year 1993-94; assessment of patients at admission and for each day of stay with the use of a standardized set of objective, nondiagnosis-based criteria (InterQual).

PATIENTS

A total of 3904 patients receiving care at 26 hospitals.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Acute (appropriate) and nonacute (inappropriate) admissions and days of stay for adult patients receiving care for medical conditions.

RESULTS

After 1 week, 53.2% of patients assessed as needing acute care at admission no longer required acute care. Patients 75 years of age or older consumed more than 50% of the days of stay, and 74.8% of these days of stay were inappropriate. Four diagnostic categories accounted for almost 60% of admissions and days, and more than 50% of those days of stay were inappropriate. Patients admitted through the emergency department were more likely to require acute care (60.9%) than others (41.7%). Patients who were Treaty Indians had a higher proportion of days of stay requiring acute care than others (45.9% v. 32.8%). Patients' income and day of the week on admission (weekday v. weekend) were not predictive factors of inappropriate use.

CONCLUSION

Rather than conducting a utilization review for every patient, hospitals might garner more information by targeting patients receiving care for medical conditions with stays longer than 1 week, patients with nervous system, circulatory, respiratory or digestive diagnoses, elderly patients and patients not admitted through the emergency department.

Variation in health and health care use by socioeconomic status in Winnipeg, Canada: does the system work well? Yes and no

Health varies with socioeconomic status; those with higher incomes or who are better educated can expect to have better health. The success of the Canadian universal health care system in delivering care according to need was assessed. Consistent gradients in all-cause and cause-specific mortality according to neighborhood income characteristics are evident among Winnipeg residents. Poorer, less healthy groups receive more acute hospital care and have more contacts with general practitioners. Surgical rates and contacts with specialist physicians however, show less variation by socioeconomic status. One reason may be that members of higher socioeconomic groups have the skills required to negotiate for surgery when they develop conditions, like joint pain, that are less critical. The move toward organized priority lists in Canada may remedy this situation. As access to health care is more equalized, improvement in the health of lower and middle socioeconomic groups will occur through changes in social policy like improvement of educational opportunities.

A population-based health information system

The authors introduce the Population Health Information System, its conceptual framework, and the data elements required to implement such a system in other jurisdictions. Among other innovations, the Population Health Information System distinguishes between indicators of health status (outcomes measures) and indicators of need for health care (socioeconomic measures of risk for poor health). The system also can be used to perform needs-based planning and challenge delivery patterns.

Utilization of nursing home resources

The total use and cost of nursing homes in Manitoba, for the fiscal year 1991/1992 were analyzed using a population-based health information system. The use of hospital beds by elderly patients for stays of 60 days or more was also analyzed to see if long hospital stays were substituting for nursing home beds. More than one in ten Manitobans 75 years of age and older and one in three who were 85 years and older resided in a nursing home for some time during the study period. The nursing home sector is characterized by none of the marked differences previously found in hospital use across the southern regions of the province, whose residents are similar in health and need characteristics. A single entry system, combined with a population-based planning approach, appears to provide equitable access to care across the province.

Utilization of hospital resources

A population-based approach was used to analyze the utilization patterns of hospital care by Manitoba residents during the fiscal year 1991/1992. Patterns were analyzed for eight administrative regions, with use assigned to the patient's region of residence, regardless of the location of the hospitalization. Regional boundaries consistent with those used for presentation of data on health status and socioeconomic risk permitted integration of findings across the Population Health Information System. Marked differences in acute hospital use were found. Residents of the urban Winnipeg ("good health") region had the lowest rates of use of acute care overall, and northern rural ("poor health") regions had significantly higher rates of use. However, almost one half of hospital days by Winnipeg residents were used in long-stay care (60+ days), while rural residents were more likely to use short-stay hospital care. Despite a concentration of surgical specialists in Winnipeg, there were only small regional differences in overall rates of surgery.

Using the information system to assess change: the impact of downsizing the acute sector

A population-based approach was used to monitor impact of hospital bed closures in Winnipeg, Manitoba. Four years of administrative data were analyzed. Access to hospital services was not adversely affected: The reduction in beds resulted in increases in outpatient surgery and earlier discharges. In addition, access favored the admission of persons with more health care needs. Quality of care, as measured by mortality within 3 months of admission, readmission rates within 30 days of discharge, and increased contact with physicians within 30 days of discharge, did not change. The health status of the Winnipeg population, measured by premature mortality, did not change. However, health status and hospital use was found to be strongly related to socioeconomic status. In light of this gradient, the authors conclude that well designed and evaluated experiments that focus on the determinants of health, rather than on providing more health care services, could help identify ways of reducing hospital use.

Utilization of physician resources for ambulatory care

This article describes the utilization of ambulatory physician services by Manitoba residents during the fiscal year 1991/1992. Care was assigned to the patient's residence in one of eight administrative regions, whether the care was received in or out of the region of residence. Disparities in physician supply across regions did not correspond with differences in the use of services: the Winnipeg region had twice as many physicians per 1000 residents as the largely rural non-Winnipeg regions and was home to most specialists. With their rich supply of physicians, particularly specialists, Winnipeg residents had somewhat higher contact rates (16%), and the province spent 26% more per resident providing physician services, despite the fact that our indicators of health status and socioeconomic risk suggest no increased need for physician services among Winnipeg residents. Despite the concentration of physicians in Winnipeg, there was remarkably good access to physicians across the province, with 78% or more of the residents in every region making at least one contact with a physician during the year. The differences in use between Winnipeg and non-Winnipeg residents were almost entirely accounted for by intensive users, (individuals making eight or more visits per year). Although residents 75 years of age and older (6% of the population) made twice as many visits per capita compared to younger adults, their actual demand on the system was small, accounting for just less than 10% of expenditures on physician services. Population-based health information provides important insight for needs-based planning of physician services.

From research to policy: what have we learned from designing the Population Health Information System?

This article discusses the lessons learned from the experience of designing and using a population health information system and the policy implications of information generated. A useful system must include measures of the population's health status and socioeconomic risk when analyzing health care use. The strong gradient that can be demonstrated in service use across income groups where these indicators are included challenges policymakers and health care managers to rethink fundamental beliefs about the role of medical care. Given the size of health care expenditures in western economies, the author argues for redirecting some of these resources toward other means of improving the health of populations. Outcomes research should be expanded to assess the efficacy of non-medical and medical interventions. A population-based health information system can help identify opportunities for shifting expenditures toward meliorating the determinants of health, while monitoring the health care system to ensure that adverse effects do not occur.

Stability and trends over 3 years of data

Because the health status of a population does not usually respond immediately to interventions, whether social or medical, the ability to analyze change over time is important. Therefore, patterns of change and stability in health status and health care use of Manitoba residents during a 3-year period from 1990 to 1992 were analyzed using the Population-based Health Information System. This article presents summary findings and discusses methodological and policy issues arising from the analyses. A small but significant decrease in premature mortality (the primary health status indicator) was observed in most regions of the province, but two remote, northern regions, those whose residents scored at high socioeconomic risk, remained distinguished for their poor health status. These "poor health" regions also had the highest contact rates with primary caregivers, raising questions about the role of the health care system in improving the health of the population. A persistent increase in surgery was observed in several regions, led by increases in outpatient surgery over and above increases in the elderly population and beyond substitution for inpatient procedures. This trend (not obvious before these analyses) is important as hospitals move to expand their outpatient facilities in response to restraints on inpatient care.

Discharging patients earlier from Winnipeg hospitals: does it adversely affect quality of care?

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether decreasing lengths of stay over time for selected diagnostic categories were associated with increased hospital readmission rates and mean number of physician visits after discharge.

DESIGN

Retrospective descriptive study.

SETTING

The seven large (125 beds or more) acute care hospitals in Winnipeg.

PATIENTS

Manitoba residents admitted to any one of the seven hospitals because acute myocardial infarction (AMI), bronchitis or asthma, transurethral prostatectomy (TURP) and uterine or adnexal procedures for nonmalignant disease during the fiscal years 1989-90 to 1992-93. Patients from out of province, those who died in hospital, those with excessively long stays (more than 60 days) and those who were transferred to or from another institution were excluded.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Length of hospital stay, and rate of readmission within 30 days after discharge for all four categories and mean number of physician visits within 30 days after discharge for two categories (AMI and bronchitis or asthma.

RESULTS

The length of stay decreased significantly over the 4 years for all of the four categories, the smallest change being observed for patients with AMI (11.1%) and the largest for those with bronchitis or asthma (22.0%). The readmission rates for AMI, bronchitis or asthma, and TURP showed no consistent change over the 4 years. The readmission rate for uterine or adnexal procedures increased significantly between the first and second year (chi 2 = 4.28, p = 0.04) but then remained constant over the next 3 years. The mean number of physician visits increased slightly for AMI in the first year (1.92 to 2.01) and then remained virtually the same. It decreased slightly for bronchitis or asthma over the 4 years. There was no significant correlation between length of stay and readmission rates for individual hospitals in 1992-93 in any of the four categories. Also, no correlation was observed between length of stay and mean number of physician visits for individual hospitals in 1992-93 in the categories AMI and bronchitis or asthma.

CONCLUSIONS

Improving hospital efficiency by shortening length of stay does not appear to result in increased rates of readmission or numbers of physician visits within 30 days after discharge from hospital. Research is needed to identify optimal lengths of stay and expected readmission rates.

Variation in length of stay as a measure of efficiency in Manitoba hospitals

OBJECTIVE

To examine the efficiency of Manitoba hospitals by analysing variations in length of stay for patients with similar characteristics.

DESIGN

Retrospective study. Multiple regression analyses were used to adjust for patient (case-mix) characteristics and to identify differences in length of stay attributable to the hospital of admission for 14 specific, frequently encountered diagnostic categories and for all acute admissions.

SETTING

The eight major acute care hospitals in Manitoba.

PARTICIPANTS

Manitoba residents admitted to any one of the eight hospitals during the fiscal year 1989-90, 1990-91 or 1991-92. Patients transferred to or from another institution, those with atypically long stays and those who died in hospital were excluded.

OUTCOME MEASURE

Length of hospital stay.

RESULTS

The length of stay was strongly influenced by hospital of admission, even after adjustment for key patient characteristics. Excluding the most seriously ill patients and those with the longest stays, approximately 186 beds could potentially have been saved if each hospital had discharged its patients as efficiently as the hospital with the shortest overall length of stay.

CONCLUSIONS

A substantial proportion of days currently invested in treating acute care patients could be eliminated. At least some bed closures in Manitoba hospitals could be accommodated simply through more efficient treatment of patients in the remaining beds, without decreasing access to hospital care.

Introducing data into the health policy process: developing a report on the efficiency of bed use in Manitoba

The Manitoba Centre for Health Policy and Evaluation (MCHPE) is a university-based centre funded by the provincial government to provide analyses for use in policy development and management of the health care system. At the government's request, the MCHPE undertook an analysis of bed use in the major hospitals in the province. This article reviews the formulation, execution and delivery of the project to illustrate how health services researchers, administrative data and key actors in the health care system can interact in the policy process.

A population-based approach to monitoring adverse outcomes of medical care

A population-based approach to monitoring quality of care combining small-area analysis and outcomes assessment is proposed. While adverse outcomes due to poor surgical technique have long been targeted for quality-of-care review, in this study, giving similar attention to adverse outcomes produced by high rates of interventions is proposed. A population-based approach will strengthen traditional review efforts that currently begin and end at the hospital door. Excluded from these reviews have been questions such as the following: Should the procedure have been performed in the first place? Did the benefits outweigh the risks? Were there other patients not operated on who might have benefited more? Traditional approaches can identify less competent hospitals or practitioners: population-based approaches can identify the surgical enthusiasts who may pose equal risks to the populations of the areas they serve. Applying a population-based approach to review of coronary artery bypass graft surgery for Medicare patients in five cities in the United States demonstrates that at least as many deaths could have been prevented by decreasing surgical rates to the U.S. average as by improving the technical quality of care with which the procedure was performed. A similar population-based analysis of complications (as judged by re-admissions within 30 days of surgery) associated with hysterectomy across regions of Manitoba, Canada, is presented. In summary, negligent acts in the delivery of health care in institutions are rare and are difficult to detect because medicine is an inexact science and because adverse outcomes are more likely in high-risk patients, regardless of the quality of care. However, from a population perspective, adverse events are predictable, occur relatively frequently, and are directly related to the frequency of a population's exposure to surgical intervention. Efforts to improve quality of care could be made more effective by including the rates at which populations are exposed to treatments and the technical quality of care delivered.

Manitoba's population-based databases and long-term planning: beyond the hospital databases

The Manitoba Centre for Health Policy and Evaluation (MCHPE) conducts health services research focusing on Manitoba's administrative databases. Administrative databases contain information which is routinely and systematically collected for administrative purposes such as hospital and physician claims and funding requirements. This article describes the MCHPE's five major databases, their strengths and limitations, and the development of the Population Health Information System (PHIS). Four modules from PHIS illustrate how the data are used to provide useful information for health care planners, administrators and policy analysts. Finally, future projects and directions for using administrative databases are explored.

The relationship of prenatal care and pregnancy complications to birthweight in Winnipeg, Canada

OBJECTIVES

Prenatal care is commonly understood to have a beneficial impact on birthweight. This study describes socioeconomic differences in utilization of prenatal medical care and birthweight in a population with universal health insurance.

METHODS

Measures of prenatal care utilization, incidence of pregnancy complications, and birthweight were obtained from physician reimbursement claims and hospital separation abstracts for 12,646 pregnant women. Maternal socioeconomic status was derived from small-area census data.

RESULTS

Infants born to women in the poorest income quintile had lower birthweights than infants born to wealthier women. Much of the difference was associated with a higher prevalence of complications, smoking, unmarried status, and inadequate prenatal care among low-income women. The difference in birthweight between adequate and less than adequate care groups was small, and the benefit associated with prenatal care was no greater among women with pregnancy complications.

CONCLUSIONS

The lower utilization of prenatal care by poorer women accounted for a small proportion of the difference in birthweight. Socioeconomic differences in birthweight are primarily attributable to factors not directly influenced by early prenatal medical care.

Linking patients to hospitals. Defining urban hospital service populations

Small area analysis is a widely used approach for identifying variations in the delivery of health services across geographically defined populations. There is growing consensus that, to a significant degree, these variations reflect the practice style of different physicians at area hospitals. However, to date, small area analysis has not been appropriate for studying the practice style of physicians at individual urban hospitals. This occurs, at least in part, because urban residents have easy geographic access to several hospitals, and no clear method of assigning small geographic areas to a single hospital is available. This study addresses this issue by taking a new approach to defining urban hospital service areas. As gate keepers to hospitals, physicians tend to admit their patients to one or two institutions. Therefore, urban hospital service areas are defined by ignoring geographic boundaries and linking patients to a single hospital on the basis of the admitting patterns of the physicians the patient contacts. The sensitivity of the assignment rules is tested; the results of the proposed technique are compared with those using a traditional geographic approach. The findings of the study reported here suggest that this is a feasible method, which yields stable sensitivity results and is generalizable to a variety of urban settings.

Living longer but doing worse: assessing health status in elderly persons at two points in time in Manitoba, Canada, 1971 and 1983

Comparisons of the health status of 1971 and 1983 samples of elderly persons in Manitoba, Canada suggest that while elderly individuals were living longer in 1983, their health was poorer. This was true in both age- and sex-specific comparisons and in comparisons made of individuals in the two samples who were relatively close to death. 'Compression of morbidity' has not taken place. Elderly individuals in the 1983 sample were in poorer health whether judged by functional status (ability to perform activities of daily living), number of different health problems reported, mental status or the rate of hospitalization for serious co-morbid disease. We estimate a 29% increase in the number of elderly persons resident in Manitoba over the 12 year period studied, but a 73% increase in the number of elderly who were in poor health.

Hospitalization style of physicians in Manitoba: the disturbing lack of logic in medical practice

Variations in hospital admission rates across small areas are ubiquitous, and it is increasingly assumed that high rates result from physicians' discretionary decisions. Data for elderly patients from the health insurance system of Manitoba were used to construct an index that divided physicians into four groups based on their propensity to admit patients to the hospital. I then determined whether physicians who are more prone to admit patients use hospitals for more discretionary purposes and admit patients who are less ill. Although the differences between physicians with different practice styles were in the expected direction, the most compelling finding was the similarity in characteristics of patients admitted by physicians with markedly different practice styles. Such findings suggest a very wide latitude in physicians' decisions to admit patients; this latitude is not well captured by a model that posits a logical relationship between physician treatment patterns and patient need.

Assessing physicians' compliance with guidelines for Papanicolaou testing

In this study, population-based data were used to examine the appropriateness of Papanicolaou (Pap) testing from the perspective of the women being tested and their physicians. The approach used is unique in its assessment of overtesting and undertesting in the primary care setting. From the data base of the province of Manitoba's universal health insurance plan, 4-year health histories (1981 to 1984) were constructed for each woman from a random sample of the population of women who, in 1982, were between the ages of 25 to 64 years (n = 22,287). At the last visit to a general practitioner, gynecologist, or general surgeon in 1984 (termed the current visit), the authors determined whether a Pap test was given for each woman. Using decision rules from a Canadian task force report on cervical screening and previous health history, the authors evaluated the appropriateness of screening by determining whether a Pap test was given and was needed, or whether a women who had not received a Pap test required one. Overall, 55.7% of women were tested appropriately. Of the 5352 women who received a Pap test at the current visit, 62.8% were overtested. Of the 16,935 women not tested at the current visit, 38.5% required screening (i.e. were undertested). Characteristics of a physician's practice that were significantly related to compliance with the guidelines included having a high proportion of patients visiting for obstetric or gynecologic reasons. Variables that were associated with negative compliance were 1) being a gynecologist; and 2) having a high proportion of patients who lived in inner city or rural areas. Because physicians are paid a fee for every Pap smear taken and the guidelines were well disseminated, these results should be reasonably representative of fee-for-service practice in North America, where preventive care is not subject to user charges. This study supports previous findings that a passive approach to dissemination of guidelines is insufficient to effect practice.

Estimated burden of diabetes mellitus in Manitoba according to health insurance claims: a pilot study

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the burden of diabetes mellitus in Manitoba from 1980 to 1984.

DESIGN

Review of the Manitoba Health Services Commission (MHSC) database. The validity of the MHSC data was established through two substudies: one involved self-reports from a survey of elderly Manitobans, and the other involved people with confirmed diabetes enrolled in the provincial diabetes education program.

SUBJECTS

Sample of 100,000 people stratified by age, sex and MHSC health region: 50,000 were aged 25 to 64 years, and 50,000 were aged 65 or more. All MHSC claims containing the ICD-9-CM code for diabetes mellitus or gestational diabetes were identified.

MAIN RESULTS

Of the sample 7627 people were found to have a diagnosis of diabetes, the annual prevalence being 0.8% among those 25 to 44 years of age, 3.5% among those 45 to 64 and 7.6% among those 65 or older. The annual incidence rate among those over 25 years of age was 7.8 per 1000. Of the 4556 pregnant women 25 to 44 years old 85 (1.9%) had diabetes; 23 were believed to have gestational diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence and prevalence rates were similar to those determined on the basis of self-reports in Canadian and US national surveys. The use of an administrative database such as that of the MHSC will provide key information for planning health services for diabetic patients and will permit the monitoring of long-term trends in the incidence and prevalence of the disease.

Predictors of successful aging: a twelve-year study of Manitoba elderly

In Manitoba, Canada, a representative cohort of elderly individuals ages 65 to 84 (n = 3,573) were interviewed in 1971 and the survivors of this cohort were reinterviewed in 1983. This analysis assesses the determinants of successful aging--whether or not an individual will live to an advanced age, continue to function well at home, and remain mentally alert. Over 100 separate indicators of demographic and socio-economic status, social supports, health and mental status in 1971 were available as potential predictors of successful aging. Indicators of access to health care over the period 1970-82 and indicators of diseases over this period were also available as predictors. Those who aged successfully were shown to have greater satisfaction with life in 1983 and to have made fewer demands on the health care system than those who aged less well. Despite the large number of potential predictors of successful aging which were examined, only age, four measures of health status, two measures of mental status, and not having one's spouse die or enter a nursing home were shown to be predictive of successful aging.

Technology assessment using insurance claims. Example of prostatectomy

This article describes the findings of an ongoing assessment of prostatectomy that relied on the use of administrative data bases. Examples of the use of claims data for monitoring outcomes and treatment comparisons are provided, as well as a discussion of the strengths and limitations of administrative data for technology assessment.