Potential impacts of climate change on the productivity and soil carbon stocks of managed grasslands

Rain-fed pastoral systems are tightly connected to meteorological conditions. It is, therefore, likely that climate change, including changing atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, precipitation and patterns of climate extremes, will greatly affect pastoral systems. However, exact impacts on the productivity and carbon dynamics of these systems are still poorly understood, particularly over longtime scales. The present study assesses the potential effects of future climatic conditions on productivity and soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks of mowed and rotationally grazed grasslands in France. We used the CenW ecosystem model to simulate carbon, water, and nitrogen cycles in response to changes in environmental drivers and management practices. We first evaluated model responses to individual changes in each key meteorological variable to get better insights into the role and importance of each individual variable. Then, we used 3 sets of meteorological variables corresponding to 3 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for long-term model runs from 1975 to 2100. Finally, we used the same three RCPs to analyze the responses of modelled grasslands to extreme climate events. We found that increasing temperature slightly increased grasslands productivities but strongly reduced SOC stocks. A reduction in precipitation led to reductions of biomass and milk production but increased SOC. Conversely, doubling CO2 concentration strongly increased biomass and milk production and marginally reduced SOC. These SOC trends were unexpected. They arose because both increasing precipitation and CO2 increased photosynthetic carbon gain, but they had an even greater effect on the proportion of biomass that could be grazed. The amount of carbon remaining on site and able to contribute to SOC formation was actually reduced under both higher precipitation and CO2. The simulations under the three RCPs indicated that grassland productivity was increased, but that required higher N fertilizer application rates and also led to substantial SOC losses. We thus conclude that, while milk productivity may continue at current rates under climate change, or even increase slightly, there could be some soil C losses over the 21st century. In addition, under the highest-emission scenario, the increasing importance of extreme climate conditions (heat waves and droughts) might render conditions at our site in some years as unsuitable for milk production. It highlights the importance of tailoring farming practices to achieve the dual goals of maintaining agricultural production while safeguarding soil C stocks.

Combining eddy covariance measurements with process-based modelling to enhance understanding of carbon exchange rates of dairy pastures

Many temperate grasslands are used for dairying, and ongoing research aims to better understand these systems in order to increase animal production and soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. However, it is difficult to fully understand management effects on SOC because most changes are slow and difficult to distinguish from natural variability, even if changes are important over years to decades. Eddy covariance (EC) measurements can overcome this problem by continuously measuring net carbon exchange from pastures, but net balances are very sensitive to even small systematic measurement errors. Combining EC measurements with detailed process-based modelling can reduce the risks inherent in total reliance on EC measurements. Modelling can also reveal information about the underlying processes that drive observed fluxes. Here, we describe carbon exchange patterns of five paddocks situated at four different locations in New Zealand and France where EC data and detailed physiological modelling were available. The work showed that respiration by grazing animals was often only incompletely captured in EC measurements. This was most problematic when fluxes were based on gap-filling, which could have estimated incorrect fluxes during grazing periods based on observations from periods without grazing. We then aimed to extract plant physiological insights from these studies. We found appreciable carbon uptake rates even at temperatures below 0 °C. After grazing, carbon uptake was reduced for up to 2 weeks. This reduction was larger than expected from reduced leaf area after grazing, but the factors contributing to that difference have not yet been identified. Detailed physiological models can also extrapolate findings to new management regimes, environmental conditions or plant attributes. This overcomes the limitation of experimental studies, which are necessarily restricted to actual site and weather conditions allowing models to make further progress on predicting management effects on SOC.

The trade-offs between milk production and soil organic carbon storage in dairy systems under different management and environmental factors

A possible agricultural climate change mitigation option is to increase the amount of soil organic carbon (SOC). Conversely, some factors might lead to inadvertent losses of SOC. Here, we explore the effect of various management options and environmental changes on SOC storage and milk production of dairy pastures in New Zealand. We used CenW 4.1, a process-based ecophysiological model, to run a range of scenarios to assess the effects of changes in management options, plant properties and environmental factors on SOC and milk production. We tested the model by using 2years of observations of the exchanges of water and CO₂ measured with an eddy covariance system on a dairy farm in New Zealand's Waikato region. We obtained excellent agreement between the model and observations, especially for evapotranspiration and net photosynthesis. For the scenario analysis, we found that SOC could be increased through supplying supplemental feed, increasing fertiliser application, or increasing water availability through irrigation on very dry sites, but SOC decreased again for larger increases in water availability. Soil warming strongly reduced SOC. For other changes in key properties, such as changes in soil water-holding capacity and plant root:shoot ratios, SOC changes were often negatively correlated with changes in milk production. The work showed that changes in SOC were determined by the complex interplay between (1) changes in net primary production; (2) the carbon fraction taken off-site through grazing; (3) carbon allocation within the system between labile and stabilised SOC; and (4) changes in SOC decomposition rates. There is a particularly important trade-off between carbon either being removed by grazing or remaining on site and available for SOC formation. Changes in SOC cannot be fully understood unless all four factors are considered together in an overall assessment.