Multimodal predictions of treatment outcome in major depression: A comparison of data-driven predictors with importance ratings by clinicians

BACKGROUND

Reliable prediction models of treatment outcome in Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) are currently lacking in clinical practice. Data-driven outcome definitions, combining data from multiple modalities and incorporating clinician expertise might improve predictions.

METHODS

We used unsupervised machine learning to identify treatment outcome classes in 1060 MDD inpatients. Subsequently, classification models were created on clinical and biological baseline information to predict treatment outcome classes and compared to the performance of two widely used classical outcome definitions. We also related the findings to results from an online survey that assessed which information clinicians use for outcome prognosis.

RESULTS

Three and four outcome classes were identified by unsupervised learning. However, data-driven outcome classes did not result in more accurate prediction models. The best prediction model was targeting treatment response in its standard definition and reached accuracies of 63.9 % in the test sample, and 59.5 % and 56.9 % in the validation samples. Top predictors included sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, while biological parameters did not improve prediction accuracies. Treatment history, personality factors, prior course of the disorder, and patient attitude towards treatment were ranked as most important indicators by clinicians.

LIMITATIONS

Missing data limited the power to identify biological predictors of treatment outcome from certain modalities.

CONCLUSIONS

So far, the inclusion of available biological measures in addition to psychometric and clinical information did not improve predictive value of the models, which was overall low. Optimized biomarkers, stratified predictions and the inclusion of clinical expertise may improve future prediction models.

Predicting treatment outcome in depression: an introduction into current concepts and challenges

Improving response and remission rates in major depressive disorder (MDD) remains an important challenge. Matching patients to the treatment they will most likely respond to should be the ultimate goal. Even though numerous studies have investigated patient-specific indicators of treatment efficacy, no (bio)markers or empirical tests for use in clinical practice have resulted as of now. Therefore, clinical decisions regarding the treatment of MDD still have to be made on the basis of questionnaire- or interview-based assessments and general guidelines without the support of a (laboratory) test. We conducted a narrative review of current approaches to characterize and predict outcome to pharmacological treatments in MDD. We particularly focused on findings from newer computational studies using machine learning and on the resulting implementation into clinical decision support systems. The main issues seem to rest upon the unavailability of robust predictive variables and the lacking application of empirical findings and predictive models in clinical practice. We outline several challenges that need to be tackled on different stages of the translational process, from current concepts and definitions to generalizable prediction models and their successful implementation into digital support systems. By bridging the addressed gaps in translational psychiatric research, advances in data quantity and new technologies may enable the next steps toward precision psychiatry.

Effects of Pharmacokinetic Gene Variation on Therapeutic Drug Levels and Antidepressant Treatment Response

Introduction Pharmacogenetic testing is proposed to minimize adverse effects when considered in combination with pharmacological knowledge of the drug. As yet, limited studies in clinical settings have investigated the predictive value of pharmacokinetic (pk) gene variation on therapeutic drug levels as a probable mechanism of adverse effects, nor considered the combined effect of pk gene variation and drug level on antidepressant treatment response.

Methods Two depression cohorts were investigated for the relationship between pk gene variation and antidepressant serum concentrations of amitriptyline, venlafaxine, mirtazapine and quetiapine, as well as treatment response. For the analysis, 519 patients (49% females; 46.6±14.1 years) were included.

Results Serum concentration of amitriptyline was associated with CYP2D6 (higher concentrations in poor metabolizers compared to normal metabolizers), of venlafaxine with CYP2C19 (higher concentrations in intermediate metabolizers compared to rapid/ultrarapid metabolizers) and CYP2D6 (lower metabolite-to-parent ratio in poor compared to intermediate and normal metabolizers, and intermediate compared to normal and ultrarapid metabolizers). Pk gene variation did not affect treatment response.

Discussion The present data support previous recommendations to reduce starting doses of amitriptyline and to guide dose-adjustments via therapeutic drug monitoring in CYP2D6 poor metabolizers. In addition, we propose including CYP2C19 in routine testing in venlafaxine-treated patients to improve therapy by raising awareness of the risk of low serum concentrations in CYP2C19 rapid/ultrarapid metabolizers. In summary, pk gene variation can predict serum concentrations, and thus the combination of pharmacogenetic testing and therapeutic drug monitoring is a useful tool in a personalized therapy approach for depression.

Creating sparser prediction models of treatment outcome in depression: a proof-of-concept study using simultaneous feature selection and hyperparameter tuning

Background

Predicting treatment outcome in major depressive disorder (MDD) remains an essential challenge for precision psychiatry. Clinical prediction models (CPMs) based on supervised machine learning have been a promising approach for this endeavor. However, only few CPMs have focused on model sparsity even though sparser models might facilitate the translation into clinical practice and lower the expenses of their application.

Methods

In this study, we developed a predictive modeling pipeline that combines hyperparameter tuning and recursive feature elimination in a nested cross-validation framework. We applied this pipeline to a real-world clinical data set on MDD treatment response and to a second simulated data set using three different classification algorithms. Performance was evaluated by permutation testing and comparison to a reference pipeline without nested feature selection.

Results

Across all models, the proposed pipeline led to sparser CPMs compared to the reference pipeline. Except for one comparison, the proposed pipeline resulted in equally or more accurate predictions. For MDD treatment response, balanced accuracy scores ranged between 61 and 71% when models were applied to hold-out validation data.

Conclusions

The resulting models might be particularly interesting for clinical applications as they could reduce expenses for clinical institutions and stress for patients.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12911-022-01926-2.

Polygenic risk for immuno-metabolic markers and specific depressive symptoms: A multi-sample network analysis study

BACKGROUND

About every fourth patient with major depressive disorder (MDD) shows evidence of systemic inflammation. Previous studies have shown inflammation-depression associations of multiple serum inflammatory markers and multiple specific depressive symptoms. It remains unclear, however, if these associations extend to genetic/lifetime predisposition to higher inflammatory marker levels and what role metabolic factors such as Body Mass Index (BMI) play. It is also unclear whether inflammation-symptom associations reflect direct or indirect associations, which can be disentangled using network analysis.

METHODS

This study examined associations of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for immuno-metabolic markers (C-reactive protein [CRP], interleukin [IL]-6, IL-10, tumour necrosis factor [TNF]-α, BMI) with seven depressive symptoms in one general population sample, the UK Biobank study (n = 110,010), and two patient samples, the Munich Antidepressant Response Signature (MARS, n = 1058) and Sequenced Treatment Alternatives to Relieve Depression (STAR*D, n = 1143) studies. Network analysis was applied jointly for these samples using fused graphical least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (FGL) estimation as primary analysis and, individually, using unregularized model search estimation. Stability of results was assessed using bootstrapping and three consistency criteria were defined to appraise robustness and replicability of results across estimation methods, network bootstrapping, and samples.

RESULTS

Network analysis results displayed to-be-expected PRS-PRS and symptom-symptom associations (termed edges), respectively, that were mostly positive. Using FGL estimation, results further suggested 28, 29, and six PRS-symptom edges in MARS, STAR*D, and UK Biobank samples, respectively. Unregularized model search estimation suggested three PRS-symptom edges in the UK Biobank sample. Applying our consistency criteria to these associations indicated that only the association of higher CRP PRS with greater changes in appetite fulfilled all three criteria. Four additional associations fulfilled at least two consistency criteria; specifically, higher CRP PRS was associated with greater fatigue and reduced anhedonia, higher TNF-α PRS was associated with greater fatigue, and higher BMI PRS with greater changes in appetite and anhedonia. Associations of the BMI PRS with anhedonia, however, showed an inconsistent valence across estimation methods.

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic predisposition to higher systemic inflammatory markers are primarily associated with somatic/neurovegetative symptoms of depression such as changes in appetite and fatigue, consistent with previous studies based on circulating levels of inflammatory markers. We extend these findings by providing evidence that associations are direct (using network analysis) and extend to genetic predisposition to immuno-metabolic markers (using PRSs). Our findings can inform selection of patients with inflammation-related symptoms into clinical trials of immune-modulating drugs for MDD.

Dissecting the Association Between Inflammation, Metabolic Dysregulation, and Specific Depressive Symptoms: A Genetic Correlation and 2-Sample Mendelian Randomization Study

IMPORTANCE

Observational studies highlight associations of C-reactive protein (CRP), a general marker of inflammation, and interleukin 6 (IL-6), a cytokine-stimulating CRP production, with individual depressive symptoms. However, it is unclear whether inflammatory activity is associated with individual depressive symptoms and to what extent metabolic dysregulation underlies the reported associations.

OBJECTIVE

To explore the genetic overlap and associations between inflammatory activity, metabolic dysregulation, and individual depressive symptoms.

GWAS DATA SOURCES

Genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary data of European individuals, including the following: CRP levels (204 402 individuals); 9 individual depressive symptoms (3 of which did not differentiate between underlying diametrically opposite symptoms [eg, insomnia and hypersomnia]) as measured with the Patient Health Questionnaire 9 (up to 117 907 individuals); summary statistics for major depression, including and excluding UK Biobank participants, resulting in sample sizes of 500 199 and up to 230 214 individuals, respectively; insomnia (up to 386 533 individuals); body mass index (BMI) (up to 322 154 individuals); and height (up to 253 280 individuals).

DESIGN

In this genetic correlation and 2-sample mendelian randomization (MR) study, linkage disequilibrium score (LDSC) regression was applied to infer single-nucleotide variant-based heritability and genetic correlation estimates. Two-sample MR tested potential causal associations of genetic variants associated with CRP levels, IL-6 signaling, and BMI with depressive symptoms. The study dates were November 2019 to April 2020.

RESULTS

Based on large GWAS data sources, genetic correlation analyses revealed consistent false discovery rate (FDR)-controlled associations (genetic correlation range, 0.152-0.362; FDR P = .006 to P < .001) between CRP levels and depressive symptoms that were similar in size to genetic correlations of BMI with depressive symptoms. Two-sample MR analyses suggested that genetic upregulation of IL-6 signaling was associated with suicidality (estimate [SE], 0.035 [0.010]; FDR plus Bonferroni correction P = .01), a finding that remained stable across statistical models and sensitivity analyses using alternative instrument selection strategies. Mendelian randomization analyses did not consistently show associations of higher CRP levels or IL-6 signaling with other depressive symptoms, but higher BMI was associated with anhedonia, tiredness, changes in appetite, and feelings of inadequacy.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study reports coheritability between CRP levels and individual depressive symptoms, which may result from the potentially causal association of metabolic dysregulation with anhedonia, tiredness, changes in appetite, and feelings of inadequacy. The study also found that IL-6 signaling is associated with suicidality. These findings may have clinical implications, highlighting the potential of anti-inflammatory approaches, especially IL-6 blockade, as a putative strategy for suicide prevention.

Single-cell molecular profiling of all three components of the HPA axis reveals adrenal ABCB1 as a regulator of stress adaptation

Chronic activation and dysregulation of the neuroendocrine stress response have severe physiological and psychological consequences, including the development of metabolic and stress-related psychiatric disorders. We provide the first unbiased, cell type-specific, molecular characterization of all three components of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis, under baseline and chronic stress conditions. Among others, we identified a previously unreported subpopulation of Abcb1b+ cells involved in stress adaptation in the adrenal gland. We validated our findings in a mouse stress model, adrenal tissues from patients with Cushing's syndrome, adrenocortical cell lines, and peripheral cortisol and genotyping data from depressed patients. This extensive dataset provides a valuable resource for researchers and clinicians interested in the organism's nervous and endocrine responses to stress and the interplay between these tissues. Our findings raise the possibility that modulating ABCB1 function may be important in the development of treatment strategies for patients suffering from metabolic and stress-related psychiatric disorders.

Sharing the filmic experience - The physiology of socio-emotional processes in the cinema

As we identify with characters on screen, we simulate their emotions and thoughts. This is accompanied by physiological changes such as galvanic skin response (GSR), an indicator for emotional arousal, and respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA), referring to vagal activity. We investigated whether the presence of a cinema audience affects these psychophysiological processes. The study was conducted in a real cinema in Berlin. Participants came twice to watch previously rated emotional film scenes eliciting amusement, anger, tenderness or fear. Once they watched the scenes alone, once in a group. We tested whether the vagal modulation in response to the mere presence of others influences explicit (reported) and implicit markers (RSA, heart rate (HR) and GSR) of emotional processes in function of solitary or collective enjoyment of movie scenes. On the physiological level, we found a mediating effect of vagal flexibility to the mere presence of others. Individuals showing a high baseline difference (alone vs. social) prior to the presentation of film, maintained higher RSA in the alone compared to the social condition. The opposite pattern emerged for low baseline difference individuals. Emotional arousal as reflected in GSR was significantly more pronounced during scenes eliciting anger independent of the social condition. On the behavioural level, we found evidence for emotion-specific effects on reported empathy, emotional intensity and Theory of Mind. Furthermore, people who decrease their RSA in response to others' company are those who felt themselves more empathically engaged with the characters. Our data speaks in favour of a specific role of vagal regulation in response to the mere presence of others in terms of explicit empathic engagement with characters during shared filmic experience.

Telestroke—the promise and the challenge. Part two—expansion and horizons

Acute ischemic stroke remains a major public health concern, with low national treatment rates for the condition, demonstrating a disconnection between the evidence of treatment benefit and delivery of this treatment. Intravenous thrombolysis and endovascular thrombectomy are both strongly evidence supported and exquisitely time sensitive therapies. The mismatch between the distribution and incidence of stroke presentations and the availability of specialist care significantly affects access to care. Telestroke, the use of telemedicine for stroke, aims to surmount this hurdle by distributing stroke expertise more effectively, through video consultation with and examination of patients in locations removed from specialist care. This is the second of a two part review, and is focused on the challenges telestroke faces for wider adoption. It further details the anticipated evolution of this novel therapeutic platform, and the potential roles it holds in stroke prevention, ambulance based care, rehabilitation, and research.

Telestroke-the promise and the challenge. Part one: growth and current practice

Acute ischemic stroke remains a major public health concern, with low national treatment rates for the condition, demonstrating a disconnection between the evidence of treatment benefit and delivery of this treatment. Intravenous thrombolysis and endovascular thrombectomy are both strongly evidence supported and exquisitely time sensitive therapies. The mismatch between the distribution and incidence of stroke presentations and the availability of specialist care significantly affects access to care. Telestroke, the use of telemedicine for stroke, aims to surmount this hurdle by distributing stroke expertise more effectively, through video consultation with and examination of patients in locations removed from specialist care. This is the first of a detailed two part review, and explores the growth and current practice of telestroke, including the specific role it plays in the assessment and management of patients after emergent large vessel occlusion.

Aspirin and recurrent intracerebral hemorrhage in cerebral amyloid angiopathy

OBJECTIVE

To identify and compare clinical and neuroimaging predictors of primary lobar intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) recurrence, assessing their relative contributions to recurrent ICH.

METHODS

Subjects were consecutive survivors of primary ICH drawn from a single-center prospective cohort study. Baseline clinical, imaging, and laboratory data were collected. Survivors were followed prospectively for recurrent ICH and intercurrent aspirin and warfarin use, including duration of exposure. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify predictors of recurrence stratified by ICH location, with aspirin and warfarin exposures as time-dependent variables adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

A total of 104 primary lobar ICH survivors were enrolled. Recurrence of lobar ICH was associated with previous ICH before index event (hazard ratio [HR] 7.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.4-15.7), number of lobar microbleeds (HR 2.93 with 2-4 microbleeds present, 95% CI 1.3-4.0; HR = 4.12 when >or=5 microbleeds present, 95% CI 1.6-9.3), and presence of CT-defined white matter hypodensity in the posterior region (HR 4.11, 95% CI 1.01-12.2). Although aspirin after ICH was not associated with lobar ICH recurrence in univariate analyses, in multivariate analyses adjusting for baseline clinical predictors, it independently increased the risk of ICH recurrence (HR 3.95, 95% CI 1.6-8.3, p = 0.021).

CONCLUSIONS

Recurrence of lobar ICH is associated with previous microbleeds or macrobleeds and posterior CT white matter hypodensity, which may be markers of severity for underlying cerebral amyloid angiopathy. Use of an antiplatelet agent following lobar ICH may also increase recurrence risk.

Pergolide monotherapy in the treatment of early PD: a randomized, controlled study. Pergolide Monotherapy Study Group

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether pergolide monotherapy provides symptomatic relief in early PD.

BACKGROUND

Early treatment with dopamine agonists may reduce the risk of motor fluctuations, which are most likely linked to levodopa therapy. Pergolide, a D1-D2 dopamine agonist, has been studied as "add on" therapy in PD, but no controlled clinical trial studying the efficacy of pergolide monotherapy is available.

METHODS

The efficacy and tolerability of pergolide were evaluated in a multicenter, double-blind, randomized, parallel-group, 3-month trial versus placebo. Patients with a diagnosis of idiopathic PD, a modified Hoehn & Yahr score of 1 to 3, and a score greater than 14 points on the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) part III at baseline were enrolled in the study (pergolide, n = 53; placebo, n = 52).

RESULTS

Patient characteristics at study entry were comparable in the two study groups. The pergolide group showed a significantly greater percent of responders (defined as a -30% decrease in UPDRS part III score at end point) compared with placebo (57% versus 17%; p < 0.001). Pergolide-treated patients experienced a significantly greater improvement than placebo-treated patients (p < 0.001) in UPDRS (overall, part II, and part III) score, Schwab & England score, and Clinical Global Impression improvement score. By the study end the mean dose of pergolide was 2.06 mg/day. Six patients in the pergolide group versus two patients in the placebo group discontinued the study because of treatment emergent side effects.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that pergolide monotherapy may be an efficacious and well-tolerated first-line treatment in patients with early-stage PD.

EGF receptor amplification and expression in human brain tumours

Human epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFr) gene amplification, rearrangements and expression were studied in tumours of the human nervous system. EGFr gene amplification was studied in 46 brain tumours. Gene expression was analysed by northern blot in 37 tumours and binding of its protein to EGF in 27 tumours. The EGFr gene was simultaneously amplified (with arrangements in 12.5% of gliomas) and overexpressed in 53% (9/17) of malignant gliomas, but never in meningiomas. In five high grade gliomas, amplification was always associated with a high level of receptors. However, since high amounts of EGF receptors found in one glioma were not the result of gene amplification, several systems of deregulation in EGFr production may exist and could be located at translational and/or post-translational levels.

Expression of the preproenkephalin A gene in tumor cells and brain glioma: a northern and in situ hybridization study

Preproenkephalin A (PPA) mRNA expression was studied by Northern blot and in situ hybridization in cell lines (rat glioma C6, rat hepatoma HTC, human neuroblastoma IMR32, mouse neuroblastoma NS20Y, rat fibroblast FR3T3, human bladder carcinoma EJ, human vulva carcinoma A431, myelocytic leukemia HL60, rat adrenal carcinoma Y1) and in brain tumours (implanted C6 cells). C6 glioma in cell culture, as well as in brain tumours, expressed high levels of PPA mRNA as compared to the caudate nucleus of the rat brain. EJ and FR3T3 cell lines also expressed the PPA mRNA, which was not detectable in A431, Y1, NS20Y, IMR32, HTC, HL60 cell lines as well as in the rat liver. This observation provides an interesting model to study the mechanisms by which the malignant transformation can induce in glial cells the derepression of a gene which is usually expressed in neurons or in neuron-like cells.