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Le Polain De Waroux O, Edmunds WJ, Takahashi K, Ariyoshi K, Mulholland EK, Goldblatt D, Choi YH, Anh DD, Yoshida LM, Flasche S. Predicting the impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine programme options in Vietnam. Hum Vaccin Immunother 2018; 14:1939-1947. [PMID: 29781740 PMCID: PMC6149911 DOI: 10.1080/21645515.2018.1467201] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Although catch-up campaigns (CCs) at the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) may accelerate their impact, supply constraints may limit their benefit if the need for additional PCV doses results in introduction delay. We studied the impact of PCV13 introduction with and without CC in Nha Trang, Vietnam – a country that has not yet introduced PCV – through a dynamic transmission model. We modelled the impact on carriage and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) of routine vaccination (RV) only and that of RV with CCs targeting <1y olds (CC1), <2y olds (CC2) and <5y olds (CC5). The model was fitted to nasopharyngeal carriage data, and post-PCV predictions were based on best estimates of parameters governing post-PCV dynamics. With RV only, elimination in carriage of vaccine-type (VT) serotypes is predicted to occur across all age groups within 10 years after introduction, with near-complete replacement by non-VT. Most of the benefit of CCs is predicted to occur within the first 3 years with the highest impact at one year, when IPD incidence is predicted to be 11% (95%CrI 9 – 14%) lower than RV with CC1, 25% (21 – 30 %) lower with CC2 and 38% (32 – 46%) lower with CC5. However, CCs would only prevent more cases of IPD insofar as such campaigns do not delay introduction by more than about 6, 12 and 18 months for CC1, CC2 and CC5. Those findings are important to help guide vaccine introduction in countries that have not yet introduced PCV, particularly in Asia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Olivier Le Polain De Waroux
- a Centre for the mathematical modelling of infectious diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology , London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , London , UK
| | - W John Edmunds
- a Centre for the mathematical modelling of infectious diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology , London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , London , UK
| | - Kensuke Takahashi
- b Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University , Nagasaki , Japan
| | - Koya Ariyoshi
- b Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University , Nagasaki , Japan
| | - E Kim Mulholland
- a Centre for the mathematical modelling of infectious diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology , London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , London , UK.,c Menzies School of Health Research, Charles Darwin University , Darwin , Australia
| | - David Goldblatt
- d Institute of Child Health, University College London , London , UK
| | - Yoon Hong Choi
- e Immunisation, Hepatitis and Blood Safety Department , Public Health England , London , UK.,f Modelling and Economics Unit, Public Health England , London , UK
| | - Dang Duc Anh
- g National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology , Hanoi , Vietnam
| | - Lay Myint Yoshida
- b Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University , Nagasaki , Japan
| | - Stefan Flasche
- a Centre for the mathematical modelling of infectious diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology , London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , London , UK
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