Key challenges and priorities for modelling European grasslands under climate change

Grassland-based ruminant production systems are integral to sustainable food production in Europe, converting plant materials indigestible to humans into nutritious food, while providing a range of environmental and cultural benefits. Climate change poses significant challenges for such systems, their productivity and the wider benefits they supply. In this context, grassland models have an important role in predicting and understanding the impacts of climate change on grassland systems, and assessing the efficacy of potential adaptation and mitigation strategies. In order to identify the key challenges for European grassland modelling under climate change, modellers and researchers from across Europe were consulted via workshop and questionnaire. Participants identified fifteen challenges and considered the current state of modelling and priorities for future research in relation to each. A review of literature was undertaken to corroborate and enrich the information provided during the horizon scanning activities. Challenges were in four categories relating to: 1) the direct and indirect effects of climate change on the sward 2) climate change effects on grassland systems outputs 3) mediation of climate change impacts by site, system and management and 4) cross-cutting methodological issues. While research priorities differed between challenges, an underlying theme was the need for accessible, shared inventories of models, approaches and data, as a resource for stakeholders and to stimulate new research. Developing grassland models to effectively support efforts to tackle climate change impacts, while increasing productivity and enhancing ecosystem services, will require engagement with stakeholders and policy-makers, as well as modellers and experimental researchers across many disciplines. The challenges and priorities identified are intended to be a resource 1) for grassland modellers and experimental researchers, to stimulate the development of new research directions and collaborative opportunities, and 2) for policy-makers involved in shaping the research agenda for European grassland modelling under climate change.

A Simple Dynamic Model of Soil Test Phosphorus Responses to Phosphorus Balances

Soil test P (STP) concentration indicates whether annual P applications can be expected to give yield increases and can also indicate an elevated risk of P mobilization and potential for P transfer to surface waters and groundwater from a particular field. Changes in STP with time thus project agronomic benefits and environmental risks of different P use strategies. To predict STP changes with time, we constructed a simple dynamic model for which the input variables are P balance and initial STP. The model parameters (soil type-specific constants) were fitted using data originating from 44 P fertilizer experiments with different P rates. Model performance was evaluated using independent data sets that either had reasonably accurate input values ( = 103) or were obtained from farmers through interviews ( = 638). The simulations were in agreement with measured STP changes for both evaluation data sets when fittings were performed separately for four main soil types (clays, silts, coarse mineral soils, and organic soils). Statistical analysis confirmed that the model captured the trends in STP (NHOAc test) with acceptable accuracy and precision, with of 0.83 and 0.66 for the data with more accurate input and for farmer interview data, respectively; the corresponding model efficiency statistics were 0.88 and 0.66. The model is not restricted to use with one soil test, as fittings for several different types of soil tests can be generated. In this study, we fitted the model for Olsen P data retrieved from the literature. Agronomic use of the model includes evaluation of P use strategies, e.g., when a certain STP level is targeted or when long-term economy of P use is calculated. In an environmental context, the model can be used to predict STP changes with time under variable P balance regimes, which is essential for realistic assessment of changes in the potential for dissolved P losses.

Soil test phosphorus and cumulative phosphorus budgets in fertilized grassland

We analyzed the linearity of relationships between soil test P (STP) and cumulative phosphorus (P) budget using data from six long-term fertilized grassland sites in four countries: France (Ercé and Gramond), Switzerland (Les Verrières), Canada (Lévis), and Finland (Maaninka and Siikajoki). STP was determined according to existing national guidelines. A linear-plateau model was used to determine the presence of deflection points in the relationships. Deflection points with (x, y) coordinates were observed everywhere but Maaninka. Above the deflection point, a significant linear relationship was obtained (0.33 < r (2) < 0.72) at four sites, while below the deflection point, the relationship was not significant, with a negligible rate of STP decrease. The relationship was not linear over the range of STP encountered at most sites, suggesting a need for caution when using the P budget approach to predict STP changes in grasslands, particularly in situations of very low P fertilization. Our study provides insights and description of a tool to improve global P strategies aimed at maintaining STP at levels adequate for grassland production while reducing the risk of P pollution of water.

Vernalization, gibberellic acid and photo period are important signals of yield formation in timothy (Phleum pratense)

Timothy (Phleum pratense) is a widely grown perennial forage grass in the Nordic region. The canopy consists of three tiller types, of which the stem forming vegetative elongating (ELONG) tiller and generative (GEN) tillers contribute the most to dry matter yield. In this study, the regulation of tiller formation by vernalization, day length (DL) [12 h, short day length (SD); 16 h, long day length (LD)] and gibberellic acid (GA) was investigated in two timothy cultivars. Vernalization resulted in a shift of ELONG to GEN tillers. No vernalization was required for the development of ELONG tillers but SD strictly arrested stem elongation. Vernalization is an important regulator of tiller development but it seemed to be upstream regulated by DL. LD was essential for floral transition and could not be substituted by GA and/or vernalization treatments. Genotypic variation was found in the development of GEN tillers. The ability to produce GEN tillers was associated with significant upregulation of PpVRN3. PpVRN1 expression peaked at the time of vegetative/generative transition, and PpVRN3 after the transfer to LD, suggesting them to have similar functions with cereal vernalization genes. PpVRN1 alone was not sufficient to activate flowering, and upregulation of PpVRN3 possibly together with PpPpd1 was required. Although vernalization downregulated PpMADS10, this gene did not act as a clear flowering repressor. Our results show that flowering signals alter the tiller composition, so they have important effects on yield formation of timothy.

Effect of lignin content and subunit composition on digestibility in clones of timothy (Phleum pratense L.)

Lignin amount and subunit composition were analyzed from stems and leaf sheaths of timothy (Phleum pratense L.) clones of different in vitro digestibility. Lignin concentration in stems and leaf sheaths was higher in clones of low digestibility than those of high digestibility. No change in lignin concentration occurred in stems as digestibility decreased. Intriguingly, the lignin concentration was lower and the syringyl/guaiacyl (S/G) ratio was higher in stems compared to leaf sheaths at all developmental stages studied. The developmental-associated decrease in digestibility correlated with the increase in S units in lignin in stems and leaf sheaths and in the amounts of p-coumaric acid and ferulic acid residues in the cell wall of stems. Yields of copper oxidation products increased in stems during maturation indicating qualitative changes in the lignin structure. This correlated strongly with the developmentally linked decrease in digestibility. The information obtained is valuable for breeding and for DNA marker development.

Vernalization response of Phleum pratense and its relationships to stem lignification and floral transition

BACKGROUND

Timothy is a long-day grass species well adapted for cultivation in northern latitudes. It produces elongating tillers not only in spring growth but also later in summer. As the quantity and quality of harvested biomass is dictated by canopy architecture and the proportion of stem-forming flowering tillers, the regulation of flowering is of great interest in forage grass production.

METHODS

Canopy architecture, stem morphology and freezing tolerance of vernalized timothy were investigated in greenhouse and field experiments. The molecular control of development was examined by analysing the relationship between apex development and expression of timothy homologues of the floral inducer VRN1 and repressor VRN2.

KEY RESULTS

True stem formation and lignification of the sclerenchyma ring occur in both vernalized and regrowing stems irrespective of the developmental stage of the apex. The stems had, however, divergent morphology. Vernalization enhanced flowering, and the expression of the VRN1 homologue was elevated when the apex had passed into the reproductive stage. High VRN1 homologue expression was not associated with reduction in freezing tolerance and the expression coincided with increased levels of the floral repressor VRN2 homologue. Field experiments supported the observed linkage between the upregulation of the VRN1 homologue and the transition to the reproductive stage in vernalized tillers. The upregulation of putative VRN1 or VRN2 genes was restricted to vernalized tillers in the spring yield and, thus, not detected in non-vernalized tillers of the second yield; so-called regrowth.

CONCLUSIONS

The formation of a lignified sclerenchyma ring that efficiently reduces the digestibility of the stem was not related to apex development but rather to a requirement for mechanical support. The observed good freezing tolerance of reproductive timothy tillers could be one important adaptation mechanism ensuring high yields in northern conditions. Both VRN1 and VRN2 homologues required a vernalization signal for expression so the development of yield-forming tillers in regrowth was regulated independently of the studied genes.