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Dorigatti I, Lavezzo E, Manuto L, Ciavarella C, Pacenti M, Boldrin C, Cattai M, Saluzzo F, Franchin E, Del Vecchio C, Caldart F, Castelli G, Nicoletti M, Nieddu E, Salvadoretti E, Labella B, Fava L, Guglielmo S, Fascina M, Grazioli M, Alvisi G, Vanuzzo MC, Zupo T, Calandrin R, Lisi V, Rossi L, Castagliuolo I, Merigliano S, Unwin HJT, Plebani M, Padoan A, Brazzale AR, Toppo S, Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, Crisanti A. SARS-CoV-2 antibody dynamics and transmission from community-wide serological testing in the Italian municipality of Vo'. Nat Commun 2021; 12:4383. [PMID: 34282139 PMCID: PMC8289856 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24622-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/03/2021] [Accepted: 06/21/2021] [Indexed: 01/04/2023] Open
Abstract
In February and March 2020, two mass swab testing campaigns were conducted in Vo', Italy. In May 2020, we tested 86% of the Vo' population with three immuno-assays detecting antibodies against the spike and nucleocapsid antigens, a neutralisation assay and Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR). Subjects testing positive to PCR in February/March or a serological assay in May were tested again in November. Here we report on the results of the analysis of the May and November surveys. We estimate a seroprevalence of 3.5% (95% Credible Interval (CrI): 2.8-4.3%) in May. In November, 98.8% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 93.7-100.0%) of sera which tested positive in May still reacted against at least one antigen; 18.6% (95% CI: 11.0-28.5%) showed an increase of antibody or neutralisation reactivity from May. Analysis of the serostatus of the members of 1,118 households indicates a 26.0% (95% CrI: 17.2-36.9%) Susceptible-Infectious Transmission Probability. Contact tracing had limited impact on epidemic suppression.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ilaria Dorigatti
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
| | - Enrico Lavezzo
- Department of Molecular Medicine, University of Padova, Padova, Italy.
| | - Laura Manuto
- Department of Molecular Medicine, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | - Constanze Ciavarella
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | | | | | | | - Francesca Saluzzo
- Department of Molecular Medicine, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | - Elisa Franchin
- Department of Molecular Medicine, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | | | - Federico Caldart
- Department of Molecular Medicine, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | - Gioele Castelli
- Department of Molecular Medicine, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | - Michele Nicoletti
- Department of Molecular Medicine, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | - Eleonora Nieddu
- Department of Molecular Medicine, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | | | - Beatrice Labella
- Department of Molecular Medicine, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | - Ludovico Fava
- Department of Molecular Medicine, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | - Simone Guglielmo
- Department of Molecular Medicine, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | | | - Marco Grazioli
- Department of Molecular Medicine, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | - Gualtiero Alvisi
- Department of Molecular Medicine, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Stefano Merigliano
- Department of Surgery, Oncology and Gastroenterology, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | - H Juliette T Unwin
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Mario Plebani
- Department of Medicine, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | - Andrea Padoan
- Department of Medicine, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | | | - Stefano Toppo
- Department of Molecular Medicine, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
- CRIBI Biotech Centre, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | - Neil M Ferguson
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Christl A Donnelly
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Andrea Crisanti
- Department of Molecular Medicine, University of Padova, Padova, Italy.
- Azienda Ospedale Padova, Padova, Italy.
- Department of Life Science Imperial College London, Exhibition Road, London, UK.
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