Predictions of PFAS regional-scale atmospheric deposition and ambient air exposure

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are a large class of human-made compounds that have contaminated the global environment. One environmental entry point for PFAS is via atmospheric emission. Air releases can impact human health through multiple routes, including direct inhalation and contamination of drinking water following air deposition. In this work, we convert the reference dose (RfD) underlying the United States Environmental Protection Agency's GenX drinking water Health Advisory to an inhalation screening level and compare to predicted PFAS and GenX air concentrations from a fluorochemical manufacturing facility in Eastern North Carolina. We find that the area around the facility experiences ~15 days per year of GenX concentrations above the inhalation screening level we derive. We investigate the sensitivity of model predictions to assumptions regarding model spatial resolution, emissions temporal profiles, and knowledge of air emission chemical composition. Decreasing the chemical specificity of PFAS emissions has the largest impact on deposition predictions with domain-wide total deposition varying by as much as 250 % for total PFAS. However, predicted domain-wide mean and median air concentrations varied by <18 % over all scenarios tested for total PFAS. Other model features like emission temporal variability and model spatial resolution had weaker impacts on predicted PFAS deposition.

An Analysis of CMAQ Gas Phase Dry Deposition over North America Through Grid-Scale and Land-Use Specific Diagnostics in the Context of AQMEII4

The fourth phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII4) is conducting a diagnostic intercomparison and evaluation of deposition simulated by regional-scale air quality models over North America and Europe. In this study, we analyze annual AQMEII4 simulations performed with the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) version 5.3.1 over North America. These simulations were configured with both the M3Dry and Surface Tiled Aerosol and Gas Exchange (STAGE) dry deposition schemes available in CMAQ. A comparison of observed and modeled concentrations and wet deposition fluxes shows that the AQMEII4 CMAQ simulations perform similarly to other contemporary regional-scale modeling studies. During summer, M3Dry has higher ozone (O3) deposition velocities (Vd) and lower mixing ratios than STAGE for much of the eastern U.S. while the reverse is the case over eastern Canada and along the West Coast. In contrast, during winter STAGE has higher O3 Vd and lower mixing ratios than M3Dry over most of the southern half of the modeling domain while the reverse is the case for much of the northern U.S. and southern Canada. Analysis of the diagnostic variables defined for the AQMEII4 project, i.e. grid-scale and land-use (LU) specific effective conductances and deposition fluxes for the major dry deposition pathways, reveals generally higher summertime stomatal and wintertime cuticular grid-scale effective conductances for M3Dry and generally higher soil grid-scale effective conductances (for both vegetated and bare soil) for STAGE in both summer and winter. On a domain-wide basis, the stomatal grid-scale effective conductances account for about half of the total O3 Vd during daytime hours in summer for both schemes. Employing LU-specific diagnostics, results show that daytime Vd varies by a factor of 2 between LU categories. Furthermore, M3Dry vs. STAGE differences are most pronounced for the stomatal and vegetated soil pathway for the forest LU categories, with M3Dry estimating larger effective conductances for the stomatal pathway and STAGE estimating larger effective conductances for the vegetated soil pathway for these LU categories. Annual domain total O3 deposition fluxes differ only slightly between M3Dry (74.4 Tg/year) and STAGE (76.2 Tg/yr), but pathway-specific fluxes to individual LU types can vary more substantially on both annual and seasonal scales which would affect estimates of O3 damages to sensitive vegetation. A comparison of two simulations differing only in their LU classification scheme shows that the differences in LU cause seasonal mean O3 mixing ratio differences on the order of 1 ppb across large portions of the domain, with the differences generally largest during summer and in areas characterized by the largest differences in the fractional coverages of the forest, planted/cultivated, and grassland LU categories. These differences are generally smaller than the M3Dry vs. STAGE differences outside the summer season but have a similar magnitude during summer. Results indicate that the deposition impacts of LU differences are caused both by differences in the fractional coverages and spatial distributions of different LU categories as well as the characterization of these categories through variables like surface roughness and vegetation fraction in look-up tables used in the land-surface model and deposition schemes. Overall, the analyses and results presented in this study illustrate how the diagnostic grid-scale and LU-specific dry deposition variables adopted for AQMEII4 can provide insights into similarities and differences between the CMAQ M3Dry and STAGE dry deposition schemes that affect simulated pollutant budgets and ecosystem impacts from atmospheric pollution.

2002-2017 anthropogenic emissions data for air quality modeling over the United States

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) has developed a set of annual North American emissions data for multiple air pollutants across 18 broad source categories for 2002 through 2017. The sixteen new annual emissions inventories were developed using consistent input data and methods across all years. When a consistent method or tool was not available for a source category, emissions were estimated by scaling data from the EPA's 2017 National Emissions Inventory with scaling factors based on activity data and/or emissions control information. The emissions datasets are designed to support regional air quality modeling for a wide variety of human health and ecological applications. The data were developed to support simulations of the EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality model but can also be used by other regional scale air quality models. The emissions data are one component of EPA's Air Quality Time Series Project which also includes air quality modeling inputs (meteorology, initial conditions, boundary conditions) and outputs (e.g., ozone, PM_2.5 and constituent species, wet and dry deposition) for the Conterminous US at a 12 km horizontal grid spacing.

Development and evaluation of an advanced National Air Quality Forecasting Capability using the NOAA Global Forecast System version 16

A new dynamical core, known as the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) and developed at both NASA and NOAA, is used in NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and in limited-area models for regional weather and air quality applications. NOAA has also upgraded the operational FV3GFS to version 16 (GFSv16), which includes a number of significant developmental advances to the model configuration, data assimilation, and underlying model physics, particularly for atmospheric composition to weather feedback. Concurrent with the GFSv16 upgrade, we couple the GFSv16 with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to form an advanced version of the National Air Quality Forecasting Capability (NAQFC) that will continue to protect human and ecosystem health in the US. Here we describe the development of the FV3GFSv16 coupling with a "state-of-the-science" CMAQ model version 5.3.1. The GFS-CMAQ coupling is made possible by the seminal version of the NOAA-EPA Atmosphere-Chemistry Coupler (NACC), which became a major piece of the next operational NAQFC system (i.e., NACC-CMAQ) on 20 July 2021. NACC-CMAQ has a number of scientific advancements that include satellite-based data acquisition technology to improve land cover and soil characteristics and inline wildfire smoke and dust predictions that are vital to predictions of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations during hazardous events affecting society, ecosystems, and human health. The GFS-driven NACC-CMAQ model has significantly different meteorological and chemical predictions compared to the previous operational NAQFC, where evaluation of NACC-CMAQ shows generally improved near-surface ozone and PM_2.5 predictions and diurnal patterns, both of which are extended to a 72 h (3 d) forecast with this system.

Establishing the Suitability of the Model for Prediction Across Scales for Global Retrospective Air Quality Modeling

The U.S. EPA is leveraging recent advances in meteorological modeling to construct an air quality modeling system to allow consistency from global to local scales. The Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A or MPAS) has been developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) as a global complement to the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). Patterned after a regional coupled system with WRF, the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system has been coupled within MPAS to explore global-to-local chemical transport modeling. Several options were implemented into MPAS for retrospective applications. Nudging-based data assimilation was added to support continuous simulations of past weather to minimize error growth that exists with a weather forecast configuration. The Pleim-Xiu land-surface model, the Asymmetric Convective Model 2 boundary layer scheme, and the Pleim surface layer scheme were added as the preferred options for retrospective air quality applications with WRF. Annual simulations were conducted using this EPA-enhanced MPAS configuration on two different mesh structures and compared against WRF. MPAS generally compares well with WRF over the conterminous United States. Errors in MPAS surface meteorology are comparable to WRF throughout the year. Precipitation statistics indicate MPAS performs slightly better than WRF. Solar radiation in MPAS is higher than WRF and measurements, suggesting fewer clouds in MPAS than WRF. Upper-air meteorology is well-simulated by MPAS, but errors are slightly higher than WRF. These comparisons lend confidence to use MPAS for retrospective air quality modeling and suggest ways it can be further improved in the future.

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model versions 5.3 and 5.3.1: system updates and evaluation

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 5.3 (CMAQ53), released to the public in August 2019 and followed by version 5.3.1 (CMAQ531) in December 2019, contains numerous science updates, enhanced functionality, and improved computation efficiency relative to the previous version of the model, 5.2.1 (CMAQ521). Major science advances in the new model include a new aerosol module (AERO7) with significant updates to secondary organic aerosol (SOA) chemistry, updated chlorine chemistry, updated detailed bromine and iodine chemistry, updated simple halogen chemistry, the addition of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) chemistry in the CB6r3 chemical mechanism, updated M3Dry bidirectional deposition model, and the new Surface Tiled Aerosol and Gaseous Exchange (STAGE) bidirectional deposition model. In addition, support for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model's hybrid vertical coordinate (HVC) was added to CMAQ53 and the Meteorology-Chemistry Interface Processor (MCIP) version 5.0 (MCIP50). Enhanced functionality in CMAQ53 includes the new Detailed Emissions Scaling, Isolation and Diagnostic (DESID) system for scaling incoming emissions to CMAQ and reading multiple gridded input emission files. Evaluation of CMAQ531 was performed by comparing monthly and seasonal mean daily 8 h average (MDA8) O₃ and daily PM_2.5 values from several CMAQ531 simulations to a similarly configured CMAQ521 simulation encompassing 2016. For MDA8 O₃, CMAQ531 has higher O₃ in the winter versus CMAQ521, due primarily to reduced dry deposition to snow, which strongly reduces wintertime O₃ bias (2-4 ppbv monthly average). MDA8 O₃ is lower with CMAQ531 throughout the rest of the year, particularly in spring, due in part to reduced O₃ from the lateral boundary conditions (BCs), which generally increases MDA8 O₃ bias in spring and fall ( 0.5 μg m^-3). For daily 24 h average PM_2.5, CMAQ531 has lower concentrations on average in spring and fall, higher concentrations in summer, and similar concentrations in winter to CMAQ521, which slightly increases bias in spring and fall and reduces bias in summer. Comparisons were also performed to isolate updates to several specific aspects of the modeling system, namely the lateral BCs, meteorology model version, and the deposition model used. Transitioning from a hemispheric CMAQ (HCMAQ) version 5.2.1 simulation to a HCMAQ version 5.3 simulation to provide lateral BCs contributes to higher O₃ mixing ratios in the regional CMAQ simulation in higher latitudes during winter (due to the decreased O₃ dry deposition to snow in CMAQ53) and lower O₃ mixing ratios in middle and lower latitudes year-round (due to reduced O₃ over the ocean with CMAQ53). Transitioning from WRF version 3.8 to WRF version 4.1.1 with the HVC resulted in consistently higher (1.0-1.5 ppbv) MDA8 O₃ mixing ratios and higher PM_2.5 concentrations (0.1-0.25 μg m^-3) throughout the year. Finally, comparisons of the M3Dry and STAGE deposition models showed that MDA8 O₃ is generally higher with M3Dry outside of summer, while PM_2.5 is consistently higher with STAGE due to differences in the assumptions of particle deposition velocities to non-vegetated surfaces and land use with short vegetation (e.g., grasslands) between the two models. For ambient NH₃, STAGE has slightly higher concentrations and smaller bias in the winter, spring, and fall, while M3Dry has higher concentrations and smaller bias but larger error and lower correlation in the summer.

Characterizing the Air Emissions, Transport, and Deposition of Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances from a Fluoropolymer Manufacturing Facility

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) have been released into the environment for decades, yet contributions of air emissions to total human exposure, from inhalation and drinking water contamination via deposition, are poorly constrained. The atmospheric transport and fate of a PFAS mixture from a fluoropolymer manufacturing facility in North Carolina were investigated with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model applied at high resolution (1 km) and extending ∼150 km from the facility. Twenty-six explicit PFAS compounds, including GenX, were added to CMAQ using current best estimates of air emissions and relevant physicochemical properties. The new model, CMAQ-PFAS, predicts that 5% by mass of total emitted PFAS and 2.5% of total GenX are deposited within ∼150 km of the facility, with the remainder transported out. Modeled air concentrations of total GenX and total PFAS around the facility can reach 24.6 and 8500 ng m-3 but decrease to ∼0.1 and ∼10 ng m-3 at 35 km downwind, respectively. We find that compounds with acid functionality have higher deposition due to enhanced water solubility and pH-driven partitioning to aqueous media. To our knowledge, this is the first modeling study of the fate of a comprehensive, chemically resolved suite of PFAS air emissions from a major manufacturing source.

Impacts of tiled land cover characterization in the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A)

Parameterization of subgrid-scale variability of land cover characterization (LCC) is an active area of research, and can improve model performance compared to the dominant (i.e., most abundant tile) approach. The "Noah" land surface model implementation in the global Model for Predictions Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A), however, only uses the dominant LCC approach that leads to oversimplification in regions of highly heterogeneous LCC (e.g., urban/suburban settings). Thus, in this work we implement a subgrid tiled approach as an option in MPAS-A, version 6.0, and assess the impacts of tiled LCC on meteorological predictions for two gradually refining meshes (92-25 and 46-12 km) focused on the conterminous U.S for January and July 2016. Compared to the dominant approach, results show that using the tiled LCC leads to pronounced global changes in 2-m temperature (July global average change ~ -0.4 K), 2-m moisture, and 10-m wind speed for the 92-25 km mesh. The tiled LCC reduces mean biases in 2-m temperature (July U.S. average bias reduction ~ factor of 4) and specific humidity in the central and western U.S. for the 92-25 km mesh, improves the agreement of vertical profiles (e.g., temperature, humidity, and wind speed) with observed radiosondes; however, there is increased bias and error for incoming solar radiation at the surface. The inclusion of subgrid LCC has implications for reducing systematic temperature biases found in numerical weather prediction models, particularly those that employ a dominant LCC approach.

Significant ground-level ozone attributed to lightning-induced nitrogen oxides during summertime over the Mountain West States

Using lightning flash data from the National Lightning Detection Network with an updated lightning nitrogen oxides (NOx) emission estimation algorithm in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, we estimate the hourly variations in lightning NOx emissions for the summer of 2011 and simulate its impact on distributions of tropospheric ozone (O3) across the continental United States. We find that typical summer-time lightning activity across the U.S. Mountain West States (MWS) injects NOx emissions comparable to those from anthropogenic sources into the troposphere over the region. Comparison of two model simulation cases with and without lightning NOx emissions show that significant amount of ground-level O3 in the MWS during the summer can be attributed to the lightning NOX emissions. The simulated surface-level O3 from a model configuration incorporating lightning NOx emissions showed better agreement with the observed values than the model configuration without lightning NOx emissions. The time periods of significant reduction in bias in simulated O3 between these two cases strongly correlate with the time periods when lightning activity occurred in the region. The inclusion of lightning NOx increased daily maximum 8 h O3 by up to 17 ppb and improved model performance relative to measured surface O3 mixing ratios in the MWS region. Analysis of model results in conjunction with lidar measurements at Boulder, Colorado during July 2014 corroborated similar impacts of lightning NOx emissions on O3 emissions estimated for other summers is comparable to the 2011 air quality. The magnitude of lightning NOx estimates suggesting that summertime surface-level O3 levels in the MWS region could be significantly influenced by lightning NOx.

Adding four-dimensional data assimilation by analysis nudging to the Model for Prediction Across Scales - Atmosphere (version 4.0)

The Model for Prediction Across Scales - Atmosphere (MPAS-A) has been modified to allow four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) by the nudging of temperature, humidity, and wind toward target values predefined on the MPAS-A computational mesh. The addition of nudging allows MPAS-A to be used as a global-scale meteorological driver for retrospective air quality modeling. The technique of "analysis nudging" developed for the Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Mesoscale Model, and later applied in the Weather Research and Forecasting model, is implemented in MPAS-A with adaptations for its polygonal Voronoi mesh. Reference fields generated from 1°×1° National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) FNL (Final) Operational Global Analysis data were used to constrain MPAS-A simulations on a 92-25km variable-resolution mesh with refinement centered over the contiguous United States. Test simulations were conducted for January and July 2013 with and without FDDA, and compared to reference fields and near-surface meteorological observations. The results demonstrate that MPAS-A with analysis nudging has high fidelity to the reference data while still maintaining conservation of mass as in the unmodified model. The results also show that application of FDDA constrains model errors relative to 2m temperature, 2m water vapor mixing ratio, and 10m wind speed such that they continue to be at or below the magnitudes found at the start of each test period.

Description and evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system version 5.1

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a comprehensive multipollutant air quality modeling system developed and maintained by the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Office of Research and Development (ORD). Recently, version 5.1 of the CMAQ model (v5.1) was released to the public, incorporating a large number of science updates and extended capabilities over the previous release version of the model (v5.0.2). These updates include the following: improvements in the meteorological calculations in both CMAQ and the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model used to provide meteorological fields to CMAQ, updates to the gas and aerosol chemistry, revisions to the calculations of clouds and photolysis, and improvements to the dry and wet deposition in the model. Sensitivity simulations isolating several of the major updates to the modeling system show that changes to the meteorological calculations result in enhanced afternoon and early evening mixing in the model, periods when the model historically underestimates mixing. This enhanced mixing results in higher ozone (O₃) mixing ratios on average due to reduced NO titration, and lower fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations due to greater dilution of primary pollutants (e.g., elemental and organic carbon). Updates to the clouds and photolysis calculations greatly improve consistency between the WRF and CMAQ models and result in generally higher O₃ mixing ratios, primarily due to reduced cloudiness and attenuation of photolysis in the model. Updates to the aerosol chemistry result in higher secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentrations in the summer, thereby reducing summertime PM_2.5 bias (PM_2.5 is typically underestimated by CMAQ in the summer), while updates to the gas chemistry result in slightly higher O₃ and PM_2.5 on average in January and July. Overall, the seasonal variation in simulated PM_2.5 generally improves in CMAQv5.1 (when considering all model updates), as simulated PM_2.5 concentrations decrease in the winter (when PM_2.5 is generally overestimated by CMAQ) and increase in the summer (when PM_2.5 is generally underestimated by CMAQ). Ozone mixing ratios are higher on average with v5.1 vs. v5.0.2, resulting in higher O₃ mean bias, as O₃ tends to be overestimated by CMAQ throughout most of the year (especially at locations where the observed O₃ is low); however, O₃ correlation is largely improved with v5.1. Sensitivity simulations for several hypothetical emission reduction scenarios show that v5.1 tends to be slightly more responsive to reductions in NO _x (NO + NO₂), VOC and SO _x (SO₂ + SO₄) emissions than v5.0.2, representing an improvement as previous studies have shown CMAQ to underestimate the observed reduction in O₃ due to large, widespread reductions in observed emissions.

Description and evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system version 5.1

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a comprehensive multipollutant air quality modeling system developed and maintained by the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Office of Research and Development (ORD). Recently, version 5.1 of the CMAQ model (v5.1) was released to the public, incorporating a large number of science updates and extended capabilities over the previous release version of the model (v5.0.2). These updates include the following: improvements in the meteorological calculations in both CMAQ and the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model used to provide meteorological fields to CMAQ, updates to the gas and aerosol chemistry, revisions to the calculations of clouds and photolysis, and improvements to the dry and wet deposition in the model. Sensitivity simulations isolating several of the major updates to the modeling system show that changes to the meteorological calculations result in enhanced afternoon and early evening mixing in the model, periods when the model historically underestimates mixing. This enhanced mixing results in higher ozone (O₃) mixing ratios on average due to reduced NO titration, and lower fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations due to greater dilution of primary pollutants (e.g., elemental and organic carbon). Updates to the clouds and photolysis calculations greatly improve consistency between the WRF and CMAQ models and result in generally higher O₃ mixing ratios, primarily due to reduced cloudiness and attenuation of photolysis in the model. Updates to the aerosol chemistry result in higher secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentrations in the summer, thereby reducing summertime PM_2.5 bias (PM_2.5 is typically underestimated by CMAQ in the summer), while updates to the gas chemistry result in slightly higher O₃ and PM_2.5 on average in January and July. Overall, the seasonal variation in simulated PM_2.5 generally improves in CMAQv5.1 (when considering all model updates), as simulated PM_2.5 concentrations decrease in the winter (when PM_2.5 is generally overestimated by CMAQ) and increase in the summer (when PM_2.5 is generally underestimated by CMAQ). Ozone mixing ratios are higher on average with v5.1 vs. v5.0.2, resulting in higher O₃ mean bias, as O₃ tends to be overestimated by CMAQ throughout most of the year (especially at locations where the observed O₃ is low); however, O₃ correlation is largely improved with v5.1. Sensitivity simulations for several hypothetical emission reduction scenarios show that v5.1 tends to be slightly more responsive to reductions in NO _x (NO + NO₂), VOC and SO _x (SO₂ + SO₄) emissions than v5.0.2, representing an improvement as previous studies have shown CMAQ to underestimate the observed reduction in O₃ due to large, widespread reductions in observed emissions.

Description and evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system version 5.1

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a comprehensive multipollutant air quality modeling system developed and maintained by the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Office of Research and Development (ORD). Recently, version 5.1 of the CMAQ model (v5.1) was released to the public, incorporating a large number of science updates and extended capabilities over the previous release version of the model (v5.0.2). These updates include the following: improvements in the meteorological calculations in both CMAQ and the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model used to provide meteorological fields to CMAQ, updates to the gas and aerosol chemistry, revisions to the calculations of clouds and photolysis, and improvements to the dry and wet deposition in the model. Sensitivity simulations isolating several of the major updates to the modeling system show that changes to the meteorological calculations result in enhanced afternoon and early evening mixing in the model, periods when the model historically underestimates mixing. This enhanced mixing results in higher ozone (O₃) mixing ratios on average due to reduced NO titration, and lower fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations due to greater dilution of primary pollutants (e.g., elemental and organic carbon). Updates to the clouds and photolysis calculations greatly improve consistency between the WRF and CMAQ models and result in generally higher O₃ mixing ratios, primarily due to reduced cloudiness and attenuation of photolysis in the model. Updates to the aerosol chemistry result in higher secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentrations in the summer, thereby reducing summertime PM_2.5 bias (PM_2.5 is typically underestimated by CMAQ in the summer), while updates to the gas chemistry result in slightly higher O₃ and PM_2.5 on average in January and July. Overall, the seasonal variation in simulated PM_2.5 generally improves in CMAQv5.1 (when considering all model updates), as simulated PM_2.5 concentrations decrease in the winter (when PM_2.5 is generally overestimated by CMAQ) and increase in the summer (when PM_2.5 is generally underestimated by CMAQ). Ozone mixing ratios are higher on average with v5.1 vs. v5.0.2, resulting in higher O₃ mean bias, as O₃ tends to be overestimated by CMAQ throughout most of the year (especially at locations where the observed O₃ is low); however, O₃ correlation is largely improved with v5.1. Sensitivity simulations for several hypothetical emission reduction scenarios show that v5.1 tends to be slightly more responsive to reductions in NO _x (NO + NO₂), VOC and SO _x (SO₂ + SO₄) emissions than v5.0.2, representing an improvement as previous studies have shown CMAQ to underestimate the observed reduction in O₃ due to large, widespread reductions in observed emissions.

Description and evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system version 5.1

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a comprehensive multipollutant air quality modeling system developed and maintained by the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Office of Research and Development (ORD). Recently, version 5.1 of the CMAQ model (v5.1) was released to the public, incorporating a large number of science updates and extended capabilities over the previous release version of the model (v5.0.2). These updates include the following: improvements in the meteorological calculations in both CMAQ and the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model used to provide meteorological fields to CMAQ, updates to the gas and aerosol chemistry, revisions to the calculations of clouds and photolysis, and improvements to the dry and wet deposition in the model. Sensitivity simulations isolating several of the major updates to the modeling system show that changes to the meteorological calculations result in enhanced afternoon and early evening mixing in the model, periods when the model historically underestimates mixing. This enhanced mixing results in higher ozone (O3) mixing ratios on average due to reduced NO titration, and lower fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations due to greater dilution of primary pollutants (e.g., elemental and organic carbon). Updates to the clouds and photolysis calculations greatly improve consistency between the WRF and CMAQ models and result in generally higher O3 mixing ratios, primarily due to reduced cloudiness and attenuation of photolysis in the model. Updates to the aerosol chemistry result in higher secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentrations in the summer, thereby reducing summertime PM2.5 bias (PM2.5 is typically underestimated by CMAQ in the summer), while updates to the gas chemistry result in slightly higher O3 and PM2.5 on average in January and July. Overall, the seasonal variation in simulated PM2.5 generally improves in CMAQv5.1 (when considering all model updates), as simulated PM2.5 concentrations decrease in the winter (when PM2.5 is generally overestimated by CMAQ) and increase in the summer (when PM2.5 is generally underestimated by CMAQ). Ozone mixing ratios are higher on average with v5.1 vs. v5.0.2, resulting in higher O3 mean bias, as O3 tends to be overestimated by CMAQ throughout most of the year (especially at locations where the observed O3 is low); however, O3 correlation is largely improved with v5.1. Sensitivity simulations for several hypothetical emission reduction scenarios show that v5.1 tends to be slightly more responsive to reductions in NO x (NO + NO2), VOC and SO x (SO2 + SO4) emissions than v5.0.2, representing an improvement as previous studies have shown CMAQ to underestimate the observed reduction in O3 due to large, widespread reductions in observed emissions.

A simple lightning assimilation technique for improving retrospective WRF simulations

Convective rainfall is often a large source of error in retrospective modeling applications. In particular, positive rainfall biases commonly exist during summer months due to overactive convective parameterizations. In this study, lightning assimilation was applied in the Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective scheme to improve retrospective simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The assimilation method has a straightforward approach: force KF deep convection where lightning is observed and, optionally, suppress deep convection where lightning is absent. WRF simulations were made with and without lightning assimilation over the continental United States for July 2012, July 2013, and January 2013. The simulations were evaluated against NCEP stage-IV precipitation data and MADIS near-surface meteorological observations. In general, the use of lightning assimilation considerably improves the simulation of summertime rainfall. For example, the July 2012 monthly averaged bias of 6 h accumulated rainfall is reduced from 0.54 to 0.07 mm and the spatial correlation is increased from 0.21 to 0.43 when lightning assimilation is used. Statistical measures of near-surface meteorological variables also are improved. Consistent improvements also are seen for the July 2013 case. These results suggest that this lightning assimilation technique has the potential to substantially improve simulation of warm-season rainfall in retrospective WRF applications.

Relationship between PM2.5 collected at residential outdoor locations and a central site

Regression models are developed to describe the relationship between ambient PM2.5 (particulate matter [PM] < or = 2.5 microm in aerodynamic diameter) mass concentrations measured at a central-site monitor with those at residential outdoor monitors. Understanding the determinants and magnitude of variability and uncertainty in this relationship is critical for understanding personal exposures in the evaluation of epidemiological data. The repeated measures regression models presented here address temporal and spatial characteristics of data measured in the 2004-2007 Detroit Exposure and Aerosol Research Study, and they take into account missing data and other data features. The models incorporate turbulence kinetic energy and planetary boundary layer height, meteorological data that are not routinely considered in models that relate central-site concentrations to exposure to health effects. It was found that turbulence kinetic energy was highly statistically significant in explaining the relationship of PM2.5 measured at a particular stationary outdoor air monitoring site with PM2.5 measured outside nearby residences for the temporal coverage of the data.

Efficient probabilistic estimates of surface ozone concentration using an ensemble of model configurations and direct sensitivity calculations

Because all models are a simplification of the phenomenon they aim to represent, it is often more useful to estimate the probability of an event rather than a single "best" model result. Previous air quality ensemble approaches have used computationally expensive simulations of separately developed modeling systems. We present an efficient method to generate ensembles with hundreds of members based on several structural configurations of a single air quality modeling system. We use the Decoupled Direct Method in three dimensions to directly calculate how ozone concentrations change as a result of changes in input parameters. The modeled probability estimate is compared to observations and is shown to have a high level of skill and improved resolution and sharpness. This approach can help resolve the practical limits of incorporating uncertainty estimation into deterministic air quality management modeling applications.