Ecological and anthropogenic drivers of waterfowl productivity are synchronous across species, space, and time

Knowledge of interspecific and spatiotemporal variation in demography-environment relationships is key for understanding the population dynamics of sympatric species and developing multispecies conservation strategies. We used hierarchical random-effects models to examine interspecific and spatial variation in annual productivity in six migratory ducks (i.e., American wigeon [Mareca americana], blue-winged teal [Spatula discors], gadwall [Mareca strepera], green-winged teal [Anas crecca], mallard [Anas platyrhynchos] and northern pintail [Anas acuta]) across six distinct ecostrata in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America. We tested whether breeding habitat conditions (seasonal pond counts, agricultural intensification, and grassland acreage) or cross-seasonal effects (indexed by flooded rice acreage in primary wintering areas) better explained variation in the proportion of juveniles captured during late summer banding. The proportion of juveniles (i.e., productivity) was highly variable within species and ecostrata throughout 1961-2019 and generally declined through time in blue-winged teal, gadwall, mallard, pintail, and wigeon, but there was no support for a trend in green-winged teal. Productivity in Canadian ecostrata declined with increasing agricultural intensification and increased with increasing pond counts. We also found a strong cross-seasonal effect, whereby more flooded rice hectares during winter resulted in higher subsequent productivity. Our results suggest highly consistent environmental and anthropogenic effects on waterfowl productivity across species and space. Our study advances our understanding of current year and cross-seasonal effects on duck productivity across a suite of species and at finer spatial scales, which could help managers better target working-lands conservation programs on both breeding and wintering areas. We encourage other researchers to evaluate environmental drivers of population dynamics among species in a single modeling framework for a deeper understanding of whether conservation plans should be generalized or customized given limited financial resources.

Health Assessments of Koalas after Wildfire: A Temporal Comparison of Rehabilitated and Non-Rescued Resident Individuals

Many koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus) required rehabilitation after the 2019/20 Australian megafires. Little is known about how the post-release health of rehabilitated koalas compares to non-rescued resident koalas. We evaluated health parameters in rehabilitated koalas and resident koalas in burnt and unburnt habitat in southern New South Wales, Australia. Health checks were undertaken within six weeks of fire (rehabilitated group), 5-9 months post-fire and 12-16 months post-fire. Body condition improved significantly over time in rehabilitated koalas, with similar condition between all groups at 12-16 months. Rehabilitated koalas therefore gained body condition at similar rates to koalas who remained and survived in the wild. The prevalence of Chlamydia pecorum was also similar between groups and timepoints, suggesting wildfire and rehabilitation did not exacerbate disease in this population. While there was some variation in measured serum biochemistry and haematology parameters between groups and timepoints, most were within normal reference ranges. Our findings show that koalas were generally healthy at the time of release and when recaptured nine months later. Landscapes in the Monaro region exhibiting a mosaic of burn severity can support koalas, and rehabilitated koala health is not compromised by returning them to burnt habitats 4-6 months post-fire.

Spatial variation in the association between agricultural activities and bird communities in Canada

Agriculture is one the main drivers of bird decline in both Europe and North America. While it is clear that agricultural practices and changes in the rural landscape directly and indirectly affect bird communities, we still do not know the extent to which these impacts might change across broad spatial and temporal scales. To address this question, we combined information on agricultural activities with occurrence and abundance of 358 bird species across five time periods spanning 20 years in Canada. As a proxy for agricultural impact, we used a combined index that included different agricultural metrics, such as cropland and tillage area and area treated with pesticides. We found that agriculture impact was negatively associated with bird diversity and evenness across all 20 years studied, but these associations seemed to vary by region. We found good support for an overall negative association between agriculture impact and bird diversity and evenness in the Eastern and Atlantic regions but weaker associations in the Prairies and Pacific. These findings suggest that agricultural activities result in bird communities that are less diverse and disproportionately benefit certain species. The spatial variation in the impact of agriculture on bird diversity and evenness we observed is likely a result of regional differences in the native vegetation, the type of crops and commodities produced, the historical context of agriculture, as well as the native bird community and the extent of their association with open habitat. Thus, our work provides support for the idea that the on-going agricultural impact on bird communities, while largely negative, is not uniform, and can vary across broad geographic regions.

Extensive regional variation in the phenology of insects and their response to temperature across North America

Climate change models often assume similar responses to temperatures across a species range, but local adaptation or phenotypic plasticity can lead plants and animals to respond differently to temperature in different parts of their range. To date, there have been few tests of this assumption at the scale of continents, so it is unclear if this is a large-scale problem. Here, we examined the assumption that insect taxa show similar responses to temperature at 96 sites in grassy habitats across North America. We sampled insects with Malaise traps during 2019-2021 (N = 1041 samples) and examined the biomass of insects in relation to temperature and time of season. Our samples mostly contained Diptera (33%), Lepidoptera (19%), Hymenoptera (18%), and Coleoptera (10%). We found strong regional differences in the phenology of insects and their response to temperature, even within the same taxonomic group, habitat type and time of season. For example, biomass of nematoceran flies increased across the season in the central part of the continent, but it only showed a small increase in the northeast and a seasonal decline in the southeast and west. At a smaller scale, insect biomass at different traps operating on the same days was correlated up to about 75 km apart. Large-scale geographic and phenological variation in insect biomass and abundance has not been studied well, and it is a major source of controversy in previous analyses of insect declines that have aggregated studies from different locations and time periods. Our study illustrates that large-scale predictions about changes in insect populations, and their causes, will need to incorporate regional and taxonomic differences in the response to temperature.

Downer cows: a reanalysis of an old data set

AIMS

To compare the performance of two predictive models for the survival of downer cows.

METHODS

The first model had been developed in 1987 using a dataset containing missing values, while the second, new model was developed on the same dataset but using modern data imputation and analytical methods. Missing data were imputed using multiple imputation by chained equations and a logistic regression model fitted to the imputed data, with survival or not as the outcome variable. The predictive ability of the model built on the imputed data was contrasted with the original prognostic model by testing them both on a second smaller but complete data set, collected contemporaneously with the development of the original model but from a different region of New Zealand. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and cut point for the two models were calculated.

RESULTS

The original 1987 model had a slightly higher accuracy than that of the new one with a sensitivity of 0.85 (95% CI = 0.72-0.94) and a specificity of 0.82 (95% CI = 0.7-0.91), using a cut point for the probability of survival = 0.313.

CONCLUSIONS

The original prognostic formula published by Clark et al. in 1987 performed as well as a modern model built on an imputed data set.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE

The use of a prognostic test based on the Clark model should remain an important part of the clinical examination of downer cows by New Zealand veterinarians.Abbreviations: AUC: Area under the curve; AST: Aspartate transaminase activity; CK: Creatine phosphokinase activity; GAM: Generalised additive model; NSAID: Non-steroidal-anti-inflammatory drugs; PCV: Packed cell volume.

CONSERVING WETLANDS IN AGROECOSYSTEMS CAN SUSTAIN AERIAL INSECTIVORE PRODUCTIVITY AND SURVIVAL

Agricultural intensification simplifies natural landscapes and frequently results in the loss of biodiversity. Wetlands are highly productive and may offset these losses, but the amount of wetland area needed to support declining avian species on farmland is unknown. Using an avian aerial insectivore, the Tree Swallow (Tachycineta bicolor (Vieillot, 1808), we tested whether a gradient of pond area (visible surface water in wetland basins within 500 m of nest boxes; range: 0.2 - 30% pond area) at cropland and grassland sites was related to aquatic insect biomass, reproductive success, and adult female or nestling body condition. Aquatic insect biomass was ~2-8 times higher at the cropland site with intermediate (5.2%) pond area than at sites with the highest (15.6%) and lowest (0.2%) pond area. Swallow clutch initiation date was ~3-4 days earlier and nestling body condition and model-predicted first-year survival were ~10% higher among cropland sites with more pond area and were comparable to birds hatched at grassland sites. Loss of ponds due to agricultural drainage can reduce aquatic insect prey during the breeding season with apparent individual and demographic consequences for insectivorous birds. Overall, results suggest that where wetlands are conserved, intensive croplands may sustain Tree Swallow populations.

Phenotypic differences among wild passerine nestlings in relation to early-life rearing environment

Subtle changes in stress physiology during critical developmental stages have been linked to long-term fitness; however, the biological processes and phenotypic responses to early-life rearing environments, such as anthropogenic land use conditions, have not been fully evaluated in insectivorous birds. We manipulated Tree Swallow (Tachycineta bicolor (Vieillot, 1808)) brood sizes at sites with contrasting agricultural land use to assess phenotypic changes in body condition and genetic and physiological biomarkers of stress during the sensitive nestling growth phase. We predicted that nestling swallows raised on cropland-dominated sites, especially those in enlarged broods, would have lower body condition, shorter telomeres, and higher feather corticosterone than nestlings raised in smaller broods at grassland sites. Body condition was highest among nestlings raised in reduced broods but was unrelated to land use. Telomere lengths tended to be shorter in nestlings from enlarged broods and at cropland sites. Corticosterone was not related to any factor. Locally abundant insect populations associated with wetlands may have dampened the effects and (or) parent swallows assumed higher costs of reproduction rather than passing these costs to nestlings. Results suggest that food or other environmental stressors could reduce fledgling survival via telomere shortening; a hypothesis that requires further investigation due to its potential importance to population viability in multiple declining aerial insectivore species.

Pre-fledging quality and recruitment in an aerial insectivore reflect dynamics of insects, wetlands and climate

Wetland systems, including shallow palustrine ponds, are hotspots for emergent aquatic insects but are globally threatened by land-use practices and climate change. Loss of insects is hypothesized as a key driver of population declines in aerial insectivores, but studies of climate-driven fluctuations in pond abundance during wet-dry periods and aerial insects on nestling quality and apparent recruitment are lacking. Using tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) data spanning 14-28 years we evaluated: (1) whether nestling quality based on pre-fledging (~ 12 days old) body mass changed over the time series; (2) how annual estimates of aerial insect biomass and variability, temperature, and pond abundance influenced nestling mass; and (3) whether the annual number of recruits produced was related to the annual mean mass of nestlings, aerial insects, and pond abundance in their year of hatching. Average nestling body mass varied annually but no long-term temporal trends were detected. Nestlings were heavier when raised during periods of stable insect biomass, warmer temperatures, and higher pond abundance. Pond abundance consistently had strong effects on nestling mass and inter-annual apparent recruitment, suggesting that this metric provides a complementary index of either higher prey abundance or higher-quality aquatic prey. Overall, pre-fledging quality and annual recruitment of nestling tree swallows reflects dynamic interannual changes in climate, pond availability, and aerial insect food supply. Our findings further suggest the abundance of ponds in this semi-arid prairie landscape is likely a strong predictor of regional population stability in tree swallows and possibly other ecologically similar species.

Partial and complete dependency among data sets has minimal consequence on estimates from integrated population models

Integrated population models (IPMs) are widely used to combine disparate data sets in joint analysis to better understand population dynamics and provide guidance for conservation activities. An often-cited assumption of IPMs is independence among component data sets within the combined likelihood. Dependency among data sets should lead to underestimation of variance and bias because individuals contribute data to more than one data set. In practice, studied individuals often occur in multiple data sets in IPMs (i.e., overlap), which is one way for the independence assumption to be violated. Such cases have the potential to dissuade practitioners and limit application of IPMs to solve emerging ecological problems. We assessed precision and bias of demographic rates estimated from IPMs using a complete gradient (0-100%) of overlap among data sets, wide ranges in demographic rates (e.g., survival 0.1-0.8) and sample sizes (100-1,200 individuals) and variable data sources. We compared results from our simulations with those from IPMs constructed using empirical data on tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) where data sets either had complete overlap or included different individuals. Contrary to previous investigators, we found no substantive bias or uncertainty in any demographic rate from IPMs derived from data sets with complete overlap. While variability in demographic rates was greater at low sample sizes (i.e., low capture, recapture, and survey probabilities), there were negligible differences in the posterior mean or root mean square error of demographic rates among IPMs with strong dependence vs. complete independence among data sets. Our simulations suggest IPMs can be designed using only capture-recapture data or harvest and capture-recovery data where population estimates are obtained from the same data as survival and productivity data. While we encourage researchers to carefully consider the modeling approach best suited for their data sets, our results suggest that dependence among data sets does not generally compromise IPM estimates. Thus, violation of the independence assumption should not dissuade researchers from the application of IPMs in ecological research.

Plasticity in timing of avian breeding in response to spring temperature differs between early and late nesting species

Plasticity for breeding dates may influence population vulnerability to climate change via phenological mismatch between an organism’s life cycle requirements and resource availability in occupied environments. Some life history traits may constrain plasticity, however there have been remarkably few comparisons of how closely-related species, differing in key traits, respond to common phenology gradients. We compared population- and individual-level plasticity in clutch initiation dates (CID) in response to spring temperature among five duck species with early- to late-season nesting life histories. Plasticity was strongest in females of the earliest breeding species (common goldeneye [Bucephala clangula], mallard [Anas platyrhynchos], and gadwall [Mareca strepera]), whereas late-nesting lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) and white-winged scoter (Melanitta fusca deglandi) did not respond. These results contrast with previous work in other bird families that suggested late-breeders are generally more flexible. Nevertheless, late-breeding species exhibited annual variation in mean CID, suggesting response to other environmental factors unrelated to spring temperature. Goldeneye and gadwall females varied in their strength of individual plasticity (‘individual × environment’ interactions) and goldeneye and scoter females showed evidence of interannual repeatability of CID. Fitness consequences of CID plasticity in response to spring phenology, including trophic mechanisms and population consequences, warrant investigation.

The relative contribution of individual quality and changing climate as drivers of lifetime reproductive success in a short-lived avian species

Animal populations are influenced strongly by fluctuations in weather conditions, but long-term fitness costs are rarely explored, especially in short-lived avian species. We evaluated the relative contributions of individual characteristics and environmental conditions to lifetime reproductive success (LRS) of female tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) from two populations breeding in contrasting environments and geographies, Saskatchewan and British Columbia, Canada. Female swallows achieved higher LRS by breeding early in the season and producing more fledglings. Other measures of female quality had virtually no influence on LRS. Genetic factors did not predict LRS, as there was no correlation between life-history components for sister pairs nor between mothers and their daughters. Instead, climate variability-indexed by spring pond density (i.e., abundance of wetland basins holding water) during years when females bred-had strong positive effects on female LRS in more arid Saskatchewan but only weak positive effects of moisture conditions were detected in wetter British Columbia. Overall, several life history trait correlates of LRS were similar between populations, but local environmental factors experienced by individuals while breeding produced large differences in LRS. Consequently, variable and extreme environmental conditions associated with changing climate are predicted to influence individual fitness of distinct populations within a species' range.

The distribution and abundance of an unusual resource for koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus) in a sodium-poor environment

Environmentally available sodium tends to decrease with increasing elevation, and sodium resources in these sodium-poor environments are critical for the survival of herbivores. Eucalypt leaves in the subalpine Monaro region of NSW, Australia contain much less sodium than eucalypt leaves at lower elevations, and subalpine koalas obtain this much needed resource by eating the bark from some Eucalyptus mannifera trees. To better understand the availability of salty-barked trees, we searched for evidence of koala bark chewing at 100 randomly generated locations in the region. We found 318 E. mannifera trees with koala chew marks. We also analysed sodium concentrations in the bark of three unchewed E. mannifera trees from each site to determine whether there were trees with high bark sodium content that had not yet been utilized by koalas. Although 90% of unchewed trees had sodium concentrations less than 225.4 mg.kg-1 DM, some unchewed trees contained high sodium concentrations (up to 1213.1 mg.kg-1 DM). From the random survey, we can extrapolate that 11% of trees in this area have bark sodium above 300 mg.kg-1 DM, which is based on the concentration of bark sodium observed in at least moderately chewed trees. We would expect to find 0.24 of these trees per 200 m2, or 720,000 salty-barked trees in the 30 km by 20 km study area. Bark chewing by koalas is widespread in the area, and trees with salty bark are more common than initially thought. We discuss correlations with the occurrence of salty-barked trees and other landscape attributes; however, questions remain about why some E. mannifera trees have much more bark sodium than others. Studies such as this one should be expanded to identify sodium resources and their availability for other herbivorous species, since many are predicted to move to higher elevations in response to climate change.

Reproductive consequences of climate variability in migratory birds: evidence for species-specific responses to spring phenology and cross-seasonal effects

Climate change is altering global temperature and precipitation regimes, and the ability of species to respond to these changes could have serious implications for population dynamics. Flexible species may adjust breeding dates in response to advances in spring phenology. Furthermore, in migratory bird species, conditions experienced during the non-breeding season may have cross-seasonal effects during the subsequent breeding season. We evaluated species-specific responses to antecedent non-breeding (winter) and current breeding (spring) conditions. We used a data set composed of 21,230 duck nests from 164 sites in the Canadian Prairie Pothole Region, 1993-2011, to determine how environmental conditions influenced timing of nesting and subsequent nest survival in eight duck species representing varying life-histories. We tested how species responded in timing of nesting and nest survival, respectively, to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions experienced during the preceding non-breeding season (winter; Dec-Feb), and spring (Mar-Jun) temperature and moisture conditions on the breeding grounds. Ducks tended to nest earlier in warmer springs; however, in El Niño winters, with warmer spring temperatures, nesting tended to be later. We did not find evidence for direct effects of environmental variables on nest survival; however, evidence of indirect effects of winter conditions on nest survival for some species via strong direct effects on timing of nesting provides new insights into mechanisms for cross-seasonal effects on reproductive success.

A range-wide domino effect and resetting of the annual cycle in a migratory songbird

Latitudinal differences in timing of breeding are well documented but how such differences carry over to influence timing of events in the annual cycle of migratory birds is not well understood. We examined geographical variation in timing of events throughout the year using light-level geolocator tracking data from 133 migratory tree swallows ( Tachycineta bicolor) originating from 12 North American breeding populations. A swallow's breeding latitude influenced timing of breeding, which then carried over to affect breeding ground departure. This resulted in subsequent effects on the arrival and departure schedules at autumn stopover locations and timing of arrival at non-breeding locations. This 'domino effect' between timing events was no longer apparent by the time individuals departed for spring migration. Our range-wide analysis demonstrates the lasting impact breeding latitude can have on migration schedules but also highlights how such timing relationships can reset when individuals reside at non-breeding sites for extended periods of time.

Effects of parental and nest-site characteristics on nestling quality in the Tree Swallow (Tachycineta bicolor)

Natal environment and parental quality can influence offspring phenotype, including physiological and morphological traits. We investigated how offspring morphology and feather corticosterone (CORTf; a physiological index of allostatic load) may be related to nest environment and parental characteristics by cross-fostering 3-day-old nestling Tree Swallows (Tachycineta bicolor (Vieillot, 1808)) between quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) and plywood nest boxes that differed in microclimate. We evaluated the relative importance of natal influences, common rearing environment, and nest-box environment on nestling quality. Nestlings raised in quaking aspen boxes tended to have lower CORTf, although this result only approached significance. Nestling body mass was best predicted by the biological mother’s mass and random effects of natal and rearing nest identity, wing length was best predicted by random effects of rearing nest, and head–bill length was best predicted by random effects of natal nest. Therefore, nest microclimate was more important than maternal characteristics in predicting nestling physiology (CORTf), while nestling morphology was influenced by maternal morphology, as well as natal and rearing nest environments. Our study provides important information about how environmental and parental influences affect nestling phenotype and will help future studies interpret similar morphological and physiological indices of nestling quality.

Dynamics of habitat selection in birds: adaptive response to nest predation depends on multiple factors

According to theory, habitat selection by organisms should reflect underlying habitat-specific fitness consequences and, in birds, reproductive success has a strong impact on population growth in many species. Understanding processes affecting habitat selection also is critically important for guiding conservation initiatives. Northern pintails (Anas acuta) are migratory, temperate-nesting birds that breed in greatest concentrations in the prairies of North America and their population remains below conservation goals. Habitat loss and changing land use practices may have decoupled formerly reliable fitness cues with respect to nest habitat choices. We used data from 62 waterfowl nesting study sites across prairie Canada (1997-2009) to examine nest survival, a primary fitness metric, at multiple scales, in combination with estimates of habitat selection (i.e., nests versus random points), to test for evidence of adaptive habitat choices. We used the same habitat covariates in both analyses. Pintail nest survival varied with nest initiation date, nest habitat, pintail breeding pair density, landscape composition and annual moisture. Selection of nesting habitat reflected patterns in nest survival in some cases, indicating adaptive selection, but strength of habitat selection varied seasonally and depended on population density and landscape composition. Adaptive selection was most evident late in the breeding season, at low breeding densities and in cropland-dominated landscapes. Strikingly, at high breeding density, habitat choice appears to become maladaptive relative to nest predation. At larger spatial scales, the relative availability of habitats with low versus high nest survival, and changing land use practices, may limit the reproductive potential of pintails.

Control of microbial sulfide production by limiting sulfate dispersal in a water-injected oil field

Oil production by water injection often involves the use of makeup water to replace produced oil. Sulfate in makeup water is reduced by sulfate-reducing bacteria to sulfide, a process referred to as souring. In the MHGC field souring was caused by using makeup water with 4mM (384ppm) sulfate. Mixing with sulfate-free produced water gave injection water with 0.8mM sulfate. This was amended with nitrate to limit souring and was then distributed fieldwide. The start-up of an enhanced-oil-recovery pilot caused all sulfate-containing makeup water to be used for dissolution of polymer, which was then injected into a limited region of the field. Produced water from this pilot contained 10% of the injected sulfate concentration as sulfide, but was free of sulfate. Its use as makeup water in the main water plant of the field caused injection water sulfate to drop to zero. This in turn strongly decreased produced sulfide concentrations throughout the field and allowed a decreased injection of nitrate. The decreased injection of sulfate and nitrate caused major changes in the microbial community of produced waters. Limiting sulfate dispersal into a reservoir, which acts as a sulfate-removing biofilter, is thus a powerful method to decrease souring.

Integrated population models reveal local weather conditions are the key drivers of population dynamics in an aerial insectivore

Changes to weather patterns under a warming climate are complex: while warmer temperatures are expected virtually worldwide, decreased mean precipitation is expected at mid-latitudes. Migratory birds depend on broad-scale weather patterns to inform timing of movements, but may be more susceptible to local weather patterns during sedentary periods. We constructed Bayesian integrated population models (IPMs) to assess whether continental or local weather effects best explained population dynamics in an environmentally sensitive aerial insectivorous bird, the tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor), along a transcontinental gradient from British Columbia to Saskatchewan to New York, and tested whether population dynamics were synchronous among sites. Little consistency existed among sites in the demographic rates most affecting population growth rate or in correlations among rates. Juvenile apparent survival at all sites was stable over time and greatest in New York, whereas adult apparent survival was more variable among years and sites, and greatest in British Columbia and Saskatchewan. Fledging success was greatest in Saskatchewan. Local weather conditions explained significant variation in adult survival in Saskatchewan and fledging success in New York, corroborating the hypothesis that local more than continental weather drives the population dynamics of this species and, therefore, demographic synchrony measured at three sites was limited. Nonetheless, multi-population IPMs can be a powerful tool for identifying correlated population trajectories caused by synchronous demographic rates, and can pinpoint the scale at which environmental drivers are responsible for changes. We caution against applying uniform conservation actions for populations where synchrony does not occur or is not fully understood.

The ecology of avian influenza viruses in wild dabbling ducks (Anas spp.) in Canada

Avian influenza virus (AIV) occurrence and transmission remain important wildlife and human health issues in much of the world, including in North America. Through Canada’s Inter-Agency Wild Bird Influenza Survey, close to 20,000 apparently healthy, wild dabbling ducks (of seven species) were tested for AIV between 2005 and 2011. We used these data to identify and evaluate ecological and demographic correlates of infection with low pathogenic AIVs in wild dabbling ducks (Anas spp.) across Canada. Generalized linear mixed effects model analyses revealed that risk of AIV infection was higher in hatch-year birds compared to adults, and was positively associated with a high proportion of hatch-year birds in the population. Males were more likely to be infected than females in British Columbia and in Eastern Provinces of Canada, but more complex relationships among age and sex cohorts were found in the Prairie Provinces. A species effect was apparent in Eastern Canada and British Columbia, where teal (A. discors and/or A. carolinensis) were less likely to be infected than mallards (A. platyrhynchos). Risk of AIV infection increased with the density of the breeding population, in both Eastern Canada and the Prairie Provinces, and lower temperatures preceding sampling were associated with a higher probability of AIV infection in Eastern Canada. Our results provide new insights into the ecological and demographic factors associated with AIV infection in waterfowl.

A blended link approach to relative risk regression

A binary health outcome may be regressed on covariates using a log link, rather than more typical link functions such as the logit. This allows the exponentiated regression coefficient for each covariate to be interpreted as a relative risk conditional on the remaining covariates. Relative risks are simpler to interpret than the odds ratios which arise with a logit link. There are practical and conceptual challenges in log-link binary regression, mainly due to the requirement that probabilities are less than or equal to 1. Viable probabilities are now usually achieved by the imposition of a constraint on the parameter space, but the log link function is still more work to apply in practice. We propose instead a new smooth link function which is equal to the log up to a cutoff and a linearly scaled logit function above the cutoff. The new approach is conceptually clearer, simpler to implement and generally less biased, and it retains the relative risk interpretation for all but the highest risk individuals. Alternative binary regressions are compared using a simulation study and a diabetic retinopathy dataset.

Seasonal patterns in reproductive success of temperate-breeding birds: Experimental tests of the date and quality hypotheses

For organisms in seasonal environments, individuals that breed earlier in the season regularly attain higher fitness than their late‐breeding counterparts. Two primary hypotheses have been proposed to explain these patterns: The quality hypothesis contends that early breeders are of better phenotypic quality or breed on higher quality territories, whereas the date hypothesis predicts that seasonally declining reproductive success is a response to a seasonal deterioration in environmental quality. In birds, food availability is thought to drive deteriorating environmental conditions, but few experimental studies have demonstrated its importance while also controlling for parental quality. We tested predictions of the date hypothesis in tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) over two breeding seasons and in two locations within their breeding range in Canada. Nests were paired by clutch initiation date to control for parental quality, and we delayed the hatching date of one nest within each pair. Subsequently, brood sizes were manipulated to mimic changes in per capita food abundance, and we examined the effects of manipulations, as well as indices of environmental and parental quality, on nestling quality, fledging success, and return rates. Reduced reproductive success of late‐breeding individuals was causally related to a seasonal decline in environmental quality. Declining insect biomass and enlarged brood sizes resulted in nestlings that were lighter, in poorer body condition, structurally smaller, had shorter and slower growing flight feathers and were less likely to survive to fledge. Our results provide evidence for the importance of food resources in mediating seasonal declines in offspring quality and survival.

Assessing costs of carrying geolocators using feather corticosterone in two species of aerial insectivore

Despite benefits of using light-sensitive geolocators to track animal movements and describe patterns of migratory connectivity, concerns have been raised about negative effects of these devices, particularly in small species of aerial insectivore. Geolocators may act as handicaps that increase energetic expenditure, which could explain reported effects of geolocators on survival. We tested this 'Energetic Expenditure Hypothesis' in 12 populations of tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) and barn swallows (Hirundo rustica) from North America and Europe, using measurements of corticosterone from feathers (CORTf) grown after deployment of geolocators as a measure of physiology relevant to energetics. Contrary to predictions, neither among- (both species) nor within-individual (tree swallows only) levels of CORTf differed with respect to instrumentation. Thus, to the extent that CORTf reflects energetic expenditure, geolocators apparently were not a strong handicap for birds that returned post-deployment. While this physiological evidence suggests that information about migration obtained from returning geolocator-equipped swallows is unbiased with regard to levels of stress, we cannot discount the possibility that corticosterone played a role in reported effects of geolocators on survival in birds, and suggest that future studies relate corticosterone to antecedent factors, such as reproductive history, and to downstream fitness costs.

Trans-Gulf of Mexico loop migration of tree swallows revealed by solar geolocation

One of the greatest feats of avian migration is the non-stop crossing of extensive areas of inhospitable habitat such as deserts and seas. Differences in spring and autumn migration routes have been reported in species that cross such barriers, and are thought to have evolved in response to seasonal variation in prevailing wind direction. We tested the hypothesis that migration routes vary seasonally with respect to the Gulf of Mexico in the tree swallow Tachycineta bicolor using solar geolocators attached and retrieved at 4 breeding sites in central North America. We found that 100 % of birds (n = 10) made a trans-Gulf flight of >850 km from Louisiana south to their wintering grounds in the Yucatan Peninsula in 12–36 hours, achieving minimum ground speeds as high as 32 m/s. Although most days during autumn migration were characterized by unfavorable headwinds blowing to the northwest, migration over the Gulf mostly occurred on days with strong winds blowing to the south. In contrast, in 8 of 9 (88 %) birds on spring migration returned from the wintering grounds towards Louisiana following a clockwise loop pat tern flying over land to the west around the Gulf. During this spring period there were few days with prevailing winds from the south to assist northward migration. Results suggest that, despite being up to three times further (ca. 2,700 km), a coastal cir- cum-Gulf spring migration represents the less risky route when wind conditions are not favorable. These findings also help to re solve a long-standing dispute in the literature concerning migration patterns between the US Gulf coast and Mexico, and provide insight into the factors shaping migration strategies of small songbirds migrating across large bodies of water.

Experimental relationships between levels of corticosterone in plasma and feathers in a free-living bird

Integrated measures of corticosterone (CORT), such as from feathers (CORTf), have intuitive appeal because they incorporate both the duration and amplitude of glucocorticoid secretion. An association between CORTf and plasma CORT has never been shown in wild birds, and it is unclear as to when and whether these measures should be correlated, given that they are fundamentally different yet related measures of physiology. We hypothesized that CORTf should correlate with instantaneous measurements of plasma CORT when the latter reflect sustained changes in the activity of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis. To test this, we experimentally manipulated levels of plasma CORT in wild nestling tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) using 5 day time-release CORT pellets, and measured plasma CORT and growth parameters before, during and at the end of hormone manipulation (days 7, 9 and 11 post-hatch, respectively). CORTf and plasma CORT were significantly positively related only when the latter was at its highest and most variable among individuals (day 9). A similar relationship was expected at day 11, but plasma CORT had returned to near-original levels. Nestlings with higher CORTf were smaller, lighter and less likely to fledge, but we did not detect seasonal effects on CORTf. Our results clearly demonstrate that CORTf from free-living birds can reflect plasma CORT, but correlations may not always be expected, especially if elevations in plasma CORT are relatively modest and of short duration. Our work suggests that CORTf is best used to study the activity of the HPA axis over relatively long time frames and can be used effectively to advance avian ecology.

Multi-scale habitat selection affects offspring survival in a precocial species

In theory, habitat preferences should be adaptive. Accordingly, fitness is often assumed to be greater in preferred habitats; however, this assumption is rarely tested and, when it is, the results are often equivocal. Habitat preferences may not directly convey fitness advantages if animals are constrained by tradeoffs with other selective pressures like predation or food availability. We address unresolved questions about the survival consequences of habitat choices made during brood-rearing in a precocial species with exclusive maternal care (mallard Anas platyrhynchos, n = 582 radio-marked females on 27 sites over 8 years). We directly linked duckling survival with habitat selection patterns at two spatial scales using logistic regression and model selection techniques. At the landscape scale (55-80 km(2)), females that demonstrated stronger selection of areas with more cover type 4 wetlands and greater total cover type 3 wetland area (wetlands with large expanses of open water surrounded by either a narrow or wide peripheral band of vegetation, respectively) had lower duckling survival rates than did females that demonstrated weaker selection of these habitats. At finer scales (0.32-7.16 km(2)), females selected brood-rearing areas with a greater proportion of wetland habitat with no consequences for duckling survival. However, females that avoided woody perennial habitats composed of trees and shrubs fledged more ducklings. The relationship between habitat selection and survival depended on both spatial scale and habitats considered. Females did not consistently select brood-rearing habitats that conferred the greatest benefits, an unexpected finding, although one that has also been reported in other recent studies of breeding birds.

Hydrogen isotope variability in prairie wetland systems: implications for studies of migratory connectivity

Hydrogen isotopes (delta2H) are often used to infer the origins of migratory animals based on the strong correlation between deuterium content of tissues and long-term patterns of precipitation. However, the extreme flood and drought dynamics of surface waters in prairie wetland systems could mask these expected correlations. We investigated H isotopic variability in an aquatic food web associated with Tree Swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) that rely heavily on wetland-derived aerial insects for food. We evaluated isotopic turnover and incorporation of environmental water into tissue, processes that could affect H isotopic composition. Wetland water and aquatic invertebrates showed intra- and interannual H isotopic variation mainly related to evaporation and the amount and timing of precipitation. Snails showed rapid turnover of tissue deuterium and a large contribution of environmental water to their tissues. Swallow feather deuterium (delta2Hf) was variable but did not clearly follow changes in any of the food web compartments measured. Instead, isotopic variability may have been driven by shifts in the type or relative amounts of grey consumed and types of wetlands used. Nevertheless, despite relatively high variance in delta2Hf, the majority of birds fell within the predicted range of delta2Hf for the study area, revealing that significant trophic averaging occurred. However, both (presumed) diet shifts and variable hydrological conditions have the potential to greatly increase variance that must be considered when assigning origins of migratory animals based on delta2H.

Nestling corticosterone response to microclimate in an altricial bird

Although altricial young are dependent on their parents during early life, they must respond to environmental variation to maintain homeostasis. The hormone corticosterone (CORT) may be an important link between environment and phenotype during early life; however, no previous study has experimentally assessed the sensitivity of CORT to nest microclimate in altricial birds beginning to thermoregulate. We tested the hypothesis that microclimate influences CORT by cross-fostering nestling Tree Swallows (Tachycineta bicolor (Vieillot, 1808)) between thicker-walled “aspen” nest boxes and thinner-walled “plywood” nest boxes. Quantification of CORT in nestling feathers allowed us to consider hormone secreted over days, rather than instantaneously from blood samples. In agreement with our hypothesis, we detected significant positive relationships between feather CORT and increased temperature variability and maximum, but not minimum, nest box temperatures. This could reflect the energetic challenge of warmer temperatures or positive developmental effects on the nestling hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal axis. Feather CORT was significantly lower in chicks hatched in aspen nest boxes compared with plywood ones, but cross-fostering did not influence nestling CORT. This suggests that the influence of natal nest box environment on feather CORT was likely greater than the influence of the foster nest box environment. The relationships we detected highlight the sensitivity of feather CORT to environmental variation and contribute insight into nestling responses to environmental change.

Listeria monocytogenes infection of the alimentary tract (enteric listeriosis) of sheep in New Zealand

A retrospective study of the microscopical lesions of nine cases of enteric listeriosis of sheep was conducted. Lesions were present variably in the abomasum and the small and large intestines. The inflammation was multifocal to extensive, mainly neutrophilic and involved the lamina propria, muscularis mucosa and superficial submucosa, with intense focus on the muscularis mucosa. The mesenteric lymph nodes were also affected and, in some sheep, the liver. Large numbers of gram-positive rods were demonstrated within areas of inflammation in the gastrointestinal tract and mesenteric lymph nodes and Listeria spp. were identified immunohistochemically in these lesions. Ultrastructurally, bacteria were found free within the cytoplasm of myofibres of the muscularis mucosa.