Cyanotoxin mixture models: Relating environmental variables and toxin co-occurrence to human exposure risk

Toxic cyanobacterial blooms, often containing multiple toxins, are a serious public health issue. However, there are no known models that predict a cyanotoxin mixture (anatoxin-a, microcystin, saxitoxin). This paper presents two cyanotoxin mixture models (MIX) and compares them to two microcystin (MC) models from data collected in 2016-2017 from three recurring cyanobacterial bloom locations in Kabetogama Lake, Voyageurs National Park (Minnesota, USA). Models include those using near-real-time environmental variables (readily available) and those using additional comprehensive variables (based on laboratory analyses). Comprehensive models (R² = 0.87 MC; R² = 0.86 MIX) explained more variability than the environmental models (R² = 0.58 MC; R² = 0.57 MIX). Although neither MIX model was a better fit than the MC models, the MIX models produced no false negatives in the calibration dataset, indicating that all observations above regulatory guidelines were simulated by the MIX models. This is the first known use of Virtual Beach software for a cyanotoxin mixture model, and the methods used in this paper may be applicable to other lakes or beaches.

Phytoplankton community and algal toxicity at a recurring bloom in Sullivan Bay, Kabetogama Lake, Minnesota, USA

Kabetogama Lake in Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota, USA suffers from recurring late summer algal blooms that often contain toxin-producing cyanobacteria. Previous research identified the toxin microcystin in blooms, but we wanted to better understand how the algal and cyanobacterial community changed throughout an open water season and how changes in community structure were related to toxin production. Therefore, we sampled one recurring bloom location throughout the entire open water season. The uniqueness of this study is the absence of urban and agricultural nutrient sources, the remote location, and the collection of samples before any visible blooms were present. Through quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR), we discovered that toxin-forming cyanobacteria were present before visible blooms and toxins not previously detected in this region (anatoxin-a and saxitoxin) were present, indicating that sampling for additional toxins and sampling earlier in the season may be necessary to assess ecosystems and human health risk.

Can mercury in fish be reduced by water level management? Evaluating the effects of water level fluctuation on mercury accumulation in yellow perch (Perca flavescens)

Mercury (Hg) contamination of fisheries is a major concern for resource managers of many temperate lakes. Anthropogenic Hg contamination is largely derived from atmospheric deposition within a lake's watershed, but its incorporation into the food web is facilitated by bacterial activity in sediments. Temporal variation in Hg content of fish (young-of-year yellow perch) in the regulated lakes of the Rainy-Namakan complex (on the border of the United States and Canada) has been linked to water level (WL) fluctuations, presumably through variation in sediment inundation. As a result, Hg contamination of fish has been linked to international regulations of WL fluctuation. Here we assess the relationship between WL fluctuations and fish Hg content using a 10-year dataset covering six lakes. Within-year WL rise did not appear in strongly supported models of fish Hg, but year-to-year variation in maximum water levels (∆maxWL) was positively associated with fish Hg content. This WL effect varied in magnitude among lakes: In Crane Lake, a 1 m increase in ∆maxWL from the previous year was associated with a 108 ng increase in fish Hg content (per gram wet weight), while the same WL change in Kabetogama was associated with only a 5 ng increase in fish Hg content. In half the lakes sampled here, effect sizes could not be distinguished from zero. Given the persistent and wide-ranging extent of Hg contamination and the large number of regulated waterways, future research is needed to identify the conditions in which WL fluctuations influence fish Hg content.

Lacustrine responses to decreasing wet mercury deposition rates--results from a case study in northern Minnesota

We present a case study comparing metrics of methylmercury (MeHg) contamination for four undeveloped lakes in Voyageurs National Park to wet atmospheric deposition of mercury (Hg), sulfate (SO4(-2)), and hydrogen ion (H+) in northern Minnesota. Annual wet Hg, SO4(-2), and H+ deposition rates at two nearby precipitation monitoring sites indicate considerable decreases from 1998 to 2012 (mean decreases of 32, 48, and 66%, respectively). Consistent with decreases in the atmospheric pollutants, epilimnetic aqueous methylmercury (MeHgaq) and mercury in small yellow perch (Hgfish) decreased in two of four lakes (mean decreases of 46.5% and 34.5%, respectively, between 2001 and 2012). Counter to decreases in the atmospheric pollutants, MeHgaq increased by 85% in a third lake, whereas Hgfish increased by 80%. The fourth lake had two disturbances in its watershed during the study period (forest fire; changes in shoreline inundation due to beaver activity); this lake lacked overall trends in MeHgaq and Hgfish. The diverging responses among the study lakes exemplify the complexity of ecosystem responses to decreased loads of atmospheric pollutants.

Back-pumping of agricultural runoff into a large shallow lake and concurrent changes in the macroinvertebrate assemblage

Macroinvertebrates were monitored during the summer of 2001 at two paired reference and impact sites, to assess potential effects of agricultural runoff, which was back-pumped upstream into Lake Okeechobee, USA. Monitoring was conducted prior to back-pumping (Pre, April-May), during back-pumping (BP, June-September) and during the following year (Post, April-September, 2002, impact sites only). Prior to back-pumping, the macroinvertebrate communities at both impact sites differed from those at their respective reference sites. During back-pumping, differences in the macroinvertebrate communities were slightly less pronounced among the eastern pair of sites but were more pronounced at the western sites than they were prior to back-pumping. There also were marginal differences in the macroinvertebrate communities at both impact sites between the Pre and BP periods, while very little change was observed in the communities among the same periods at both reference sites. For the Post-Pre and Post-BP period comparisons, there were clear differences between the macroinvertebrate communities at the western impact site, while less pronounced differences were observed at the eastern impact site. This suggests that the Post back-pumping assemblage did not return to that observed prior to back-pumping activity. During BP, several water-quality variables appeared to be different among each of the paired sites and the correlation between water-quality variables and macroinvertebrate community structure was strong at the western sites but weaker at the eastern sites. This suggests that a combination of abiotic variables may have been influencing the community structure at the western sites while back-pumping was occurring. Macroinvertebrates at all sites reflected poor water quality, but more taxonomic changes during back-pumping were observed at the impact sites than at the reference sites. It is not known if these taxonomic changes resulted in impacts among the macroinvertebrate community or to higher-trophic-level predators such as fish. If lake restoration activities result in a shift to a less pollution-tolerant macroinvertebrate community, and the anticipated reduction in future back-pumping activity does not occur, the macroinvertebrate community may return to one that is dominated by pollution-tolerant taxa in affected portions of the lake.

A comparison of three methods to collect submerged aquatic vegetation in a shallow lake

Two boat-based and one in-water sampling method have been used to collect submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) as part of a long-term monitoring program in Lake Okeechobee, Florida, USA. The boat-based methods consisted of collecting SAV with a ponar dredge, used only to collect Chara, and an oyster tongs-like rake apparatus, used to collect all SAV. The in-water method involved use of a 0.5 m2 PVC quadrat frame deployed by a diver. During summer 2002, SAV biomass samples were collected using all three methods at various sites in the lake to compare between-methods sampling precision. Sites used for these comparisons were selected based on plant type, plant density and sediment type. Statistical comparisons indicated that there were significant (p < or = 0.05) biomass differences in 8 of 15 possible pairwise comparisons between sampling method biomass means. In four of the eight comparisons, significantly higher biomass mean values were obtained using the quadrat frame. In three of the remaining four comparisons, significantly higher biomass mean values were obtained with the rake apparatus. For the fourth comparison, a significantly higher biomass mean value was obtained with the ponar dredge. Three of the four relationships between SAV biomass collected by the rake and the quadrat and the rake and the quadrat/ponar dredge were statistically significant, linear and explained between 67 and 78% of the biomass variability. There were no significant differences between regression coefficients or elevations for these relationships, therefore these regressions estimated the same population regression. The population regression coefficient was 0.95, suggesting that the quadrat and ponar over-sampled relative to the rake, but the amount of this over-sampling was very small. Since there was no consistent pattern in the sampling method which yielded the significantly different biomass values and there were no significant differences in sampling precision across a range of plant species, plant densities and two sediment types, the boat-based rake method appears to be a suitable replacement for the previously used ponar dredge and quadrat methods, when in-lake measurements are not practical.

Salmonella typhimurium survival and viability is unaltered by suspended particles in freshwater

Rolling microcosm experiments were conducted to determine whether suspended particles affect the survival and viability of a model pathogen, Salmonella choleraesuis, serotype typhimurium (American Type Culture Collection no. 23567), in a freshwater microbial community. Water from the Duluth, MN harbor of Lake Superior (including native microorganisms) was inoculated with clay, silt, or flocculent organic particles in a range of concentrations and a streptomycin-resistant strain of S. typhimurium. Microcosms (incubated at 20 degrees C) were rolled horizontally (3 rpm) and sampled periodically for total bacteria and total, viable, and culturable S. typhimurium. Total S. typhimurium abundance decreased rapidly in all experiments (8.5-73.1% d-1). Total bacteria did not decrease as rapidly as the S. typhimurium population in any experiment, suggesting that a microcosm effect was not responsible for the decline in S. typhimurium populations. Loss rates of attached and free cells were similar, indicating that attachment to particles did not enhance the persistence of Salmonella cells beyond our minimum detectable differences. After eight days, only 0.1 to 11.9% of the initial S. typhimurium inocula were detected by direct counts. Suspended particles had a minimal effect on the survival and viability of S. typhimurium; the losses of total, viable, or culturable Salmonella were generally the same across particle treatments and concentrations. Silt and flocculent particles affected loss rates of total and viable S. typhimurium similarly to inorganic particles (clay). It appears unlikely that suspended particles would provide a means for S. typhimurium to persist at hazardous levels in freshwater.

Large-scale mapping and predictive modeling of submerged aquatic vegetation in a shallow eutrophic lake

A spatially intensive sampling program was developed for mapping the submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) over an area of approximately 20,000 ha in a large, shallow lake in Florida, U.S. The sampling program integrates Geographic Information System (GIS) technology with traditional field sampling of SAV and has the capability of producing robust vegetation maps under a wide range of conditions, including high turbidity, variable depth (0 to 2 m), and variable sediment types. Based on sampling carried out in August-September 2000, we measured 1,050 to 4,300 ha of vascular SAV species and approximately 14,000 ha of the macroalga Chara spp. The results were similar to those reported in the early 1990s, when the last large-scale SAV sampling occurred. Occurrence of Chara was strongly associated with peat sediments, and maximal depths of occurrence varied between sediment types (mud, sand, rock, and peat). A simple model of Chara occurrence, based only on water depth, had an accuracy of 55%. It predicted occurrence of Chara over large areas where the plant actually was not found. A model based on sediment type and depth had an accuracy of 75% and produced a spatial map very similar to that based on observations. While this approach needs to be validated with independent data in order to test its general utility, we believe it may have application elsewhere. The simple modeling approach could serve as a coarse-scale tool for evaluating effects of water level management on Chara populations.