A decadal inversion of CO2 using the Global Eulerian-Lagrangian Coupled Atmospheric model (GELCA): sensitivity to the ground-based observation network

We present an assimilation system for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) using a Global Eulerian-Lagrangian Coupled Atmospheric model (GELCA), and demonstrate its capability to capture the observed atmospheric CO₂ mixing ratios and to estimate CO₂ fluxes. With the efficient data handling scheme in GELCA, our system assimilates non-smoothed CO₂ data from observational data products such as the Observation Package (ObsPack) data products as constraints on surface fluxes. We conducted sensitivity tests to examine the impact of the site selections and the prior uncertainty settings of observation on the inversion results. For these sensitivity tests, we made five different site/data selections from the ObsPack product. In all cases, the time series of the global net CO₂ flux to the atmosphere stayed close to values calculated from the growth rate of the observed global mean atmospheric CO₂ mixing ratio. At regional scales, estimated seasonal CO₂ fluxes were altered, depending on the CO₂ data selected for assimilation. Uncertainty reductions (URs) were determined at the regional scale and compared among cases. As measures of the model-data mismatch, we used the model-data bias, root-mean-square error, and the linear correlation. For most observation sites, the model-data mismatch was reasonably small. Regarding regional flux estimates, tropical Asia was one of the regions that showed a significant impact from the observation network settings. We found that the surface fluxes in tropical Asia were the most sensitive to the use of aircraft measurements over the Pacific, and the seasonal cycle agreed better with the results of bottom-up studies when the aircraft measurements were assimilated. These results confirm the importance of these aircraft observations, especially for constraining surface fluxes in the tropics.

Top-down assessment of the Asian carbon budget since the mid 1990s

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) is the principal driver of anthropogenic climate change. Asia is an important region for the global carbon budget, with 4 of the world's 10 largest national emitters of CO₂. Using an ensemble of seven atmospheric inverse systems, we estimated land biosphere fluxes (natural, land-use change and fires) based on atmospheric observations of CO₂ concentration. The Asian land biosphere was a net sink of −0.46 (−0.70–0.24) PgC per year (median and range) for 1996–2012 and was mostly located in East Asia, while in South and Southeast Asia the land biosphere was close to carbon neutral. In East Asia, the annual CO₂ sink increased between 1996–2001 and 2008–2012 by 0.56 (0.30–0.81) PgC, accounting for ∼35% of the increase in the global land biosphere sink. Uncertainty in the fossil fuel emissions contributes significantly (32%) to the uncertainty in land biosphere sink change.

Land biosphere uptake of carbon is important in mitigating the anthropogenic increase in atmospheric CO₂ and its climate forcing. Here, the authors show that land biosphere uptake of carbon in Asia has increased substantially since the mid 1990s, likely owing to reforestation and regional climate change.