Marburg virus disease outbreaks, mathematical models, and disease parameters: a systematic review

The 2023 Marburg virus disease outbreaks in Equatorial Guinea and Tanzania highlighted the importance of better understanding this lethal pathogen. We did a systematic review (PROSPERO CRD42023393345) of peer-reviewed articles reporting historical outbreaks, modelling studies, and epidemiological parameters focused on Marburg virus disease. We searched PubMed and Web of Science from database inception to March 31, 2023. Two reviewers evaluated all titles and abstracts with consensus-based decision making. To ensure agreement, 13 (31%) of 42 studies were double-extracted and a custom-designed quality assessment questionnaire was used for risk of bias assessment. We present detailed information on 478 reported cases and 385 deaths from Marburg virus disease. Analysis of historical outbreaks and seroprevalence estimates suggests the possibility of undetected Marburg virus disease outbreaks, asymptomatic transmission, or cross-reactivity with other pathogens, or a combination of these. Only one study presented a mathematical model of Marburg virus transmission. We estimate an unadjusted, pooled total random effect case fatality ratio of 61·9% (95% CI 38·8-80·6; I2=93%). We identify epidemiological parameters relating to transmission and natural history, for which there are few estimates. This systematic review and the accompanying database provide a comprehensive overview of Marburg virus disease epidemiology and identify key knowledge gaps, contributing crucial information for mathematical models to support future Marburg virus disease epidemic responses.

Urinary metabolic characterization of advanced tuberculous meningitis cases in a South African paediatric population

Tuberculous meningitis (TBM) is a severe form of tuberculosis with high neuro-morbidity and mortality, especially among the paediatric population (aged ≤12 years). Little is known of the associated metabolic changes. This study aimed to identify characteristic metabolic markers that differentiate severe cases of paediatric TBM from controls, through non-invasive urine collection. Urine samples selected for this study were from two paediatric groups. Group 1: controls (n = 44): children without meningitis, no neurological symptoms and from the same geographical region as group 2. Group 2: TBM cases (n = 13): collected from paediatric patients that were admitted to Tygerberg Hospital in South Africa on the suspicion of TBM, mostly severely ill; with a later confirmation of TBM. Untargeted 1H NMR-based metabolomics data of urine were generated, followed by statistical analyses via MetaboAnalyst (v5.0), and the identification of important metabolites. Twenty nine urinary metabolites were identified as characteristic of advanced TBM and categorized in terms of six dysregulated metabolic pathways: 1) upregulated tryptophan catabolism linked to an altered vitamin B metabolism; 2) perturbation of amino acid metabolism; 3) increased energy production-metabolic burst; 4) disrupted gut microbiota metabolism; 5) ketoacidosis; 6) increased nitrogen excretion. We also provide original biological insights into this biosignature of urinary metabolites that can be used to characterize paediatric TBM patients in a South African cohort.

Urinary markers of Mycobacterium tuberculosis and dysbiosis in paediatric tuberculous meningitis cases undergoing treatment

BACKGROUND

The pathogenesis of tuberculous meningitis (TBM) involves infection by Mycobacterium tuberculosis in the meninges and brain. However, recent studies have shown that the immune response and inflammatory processes triggered by TBM can have significant effects on gut microbiota. Disruptions in the gut microbiome have been linked to various systemic consequences, including altered immunity and metabolic dysregulation. Inflammation caused by TBM, antibiotic treatment, and changes in host immunity can all influence the composition of gut microbes. This complex relationship between TBM and the gut microbiome is of great importance in clinical settings. To gain a deeper understanding of the intricate interactions between TBM and the gut microbiome, we report innovative insights into the development of the disease in response to treatment. Ultimately, this could lead to improved outcomes, management strategies and quality of life for individuals affected by TBM.

METHOD

We used a targeted liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) approach to investigate metabolites associated with gut metabolism in paediatric participants by analysing the urine samples collected from a control group (n = 40), and an experimental group (n = 35) with confirmed TBM, which were subdivided into TBM stage 1 (n = 8), stage 2 (n = 11) and stage 3 (n = 16).

FINDINGS

Our metabolomics investigation showed that, of the 78 initially selected compounds of microbiome origin, eight unique urinary metabolites were identified: 2-methylbutyrlglycine, 3-hydroxypropionic acid, 3-methylcrotonylglycine, 4-hydroxyhippuric acid, 5-hydroxyindoleacetic acid, 5-hydroxyhexanoic acid, isobutyrylglycine, and phenylacetylglutamine as urinary markers of dysbiosis in TBM.

CONCLUSION

These results - which are supported by previous urinary studies of tuberculosis - highlight the importance of gut metabolism and of identifying corresponding microbial metabolites as novel points for the foundation of improved management of TBM patients.

Improving modelling for epidemic responses: reflections from members of the UK infectious disease modelling community on their experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic both relied and placed significant burdens on the experts involved from research and public health sectors. The sustained high pressure of a pandemic on responders, such as healthcare workers, can lead to lasting psychological impacts including acute stress disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder, burnout, and moral injury, which can impact individual wellbeing and productivity.

Methods

As members of the infectious disease modelling community, we convened a reflective workshop to understand the professional and personal impacts of response work on our community and to propose recommendations for future epidemic responses. The attendees represented a range of career stages, institutions, and disciplines. This piece was collectively produced by those present at the session based on our collective experiences.

Results

Key issues we identified at the workshop were lack of institutional support, insecure contracts, unequal credit and recognition, and mental health impacts. Our recommendations include rewarding impactful work, fostering academia-public health collaboration, decreasing dependence on key individuals by developing teams, increasing transparency in decision-making, and implementing sustainable work practices.

Conclusions

Despite limitations in representation, this workshop provided valuable insights into the UK COVID-19 modelling experience and guidance for future public health crises. Recognising and addressing the issues highlighted is crucial, in our view, for ensuring the effectiveness of epidemic response work in the future.

Survey of the use of traditional and complementary medicine among children with cancer at three hospitals in Cameroon

INTRODUCTION

There is lack of diagnostic and treatment resources with variable access to childhood cancer treatment in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), which may lead to subsequent poor survival. The primary aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and types of traditional and complementary medicine (T&CM) used in Cameroon. Secondarily, we explored determinants of T&CM use, associated costs, perceived benefits and harm, and disclosure of T&CM use to medical team.

METHODS

A prospective, cross-sectional survey among parents and carers of children younger than 15 years of age who had a cancer diagnosis and received cancer treatment at three Baptist Mission hospitals between November 2017 and February 2019.

RESULTS

Eighty participants completed the survey. Median patient age was 8.1 years (IQR4.1-11.1). There was significant availability (90%) and use (67.5%) of T&CM, whereas 24% thought T&CM would be good for cancer treatment. Common T&CM remedies included herbs and other plant remedies or teas taken by mouth, prayer for healing purposes and skin cutting. Living more than five hours away from the treatment center (P = 0.030), anticipated costs (0.028), and a habit of consulting a traditional healer when sick (P = 0.006) were associated with the use of T&CM. T&CM was mostly paid for in cash (53.7%) or provided free of charge (29.6%). Of importance was the fact that nearly half (44%) did not want to disclose the use of TM to their doctor.

CONCLUSION

Pediatric oncology patients used T&CM before and during treatment but were unlikely to disclose its use to the child's health care team.

Three-dimensional visualizations from a dataset of immunohistochemical stained serial sections of human brain tissue containing tuberculosis related granulomas

This data article presents datasets associated with the research article entitled “The immunological architecture of granulomatous inflammation in central nervous system tuberculosis’’ (Zaharie et al., 2020). The morphology of tuberculosis related granulomas within the central nervous system of human patients was visualized in six different three-dimensional (3D) models. Post-mortem, formalin fixed and paraffin embedded specimens from deceased tuberculous meningitis patients were immunohistochemically stained and 800 serial histologically stained sections were acquired. Images from all sections were obtained with an Olympus BX43 light microscope and structures were identified, labeled and made three-dimensional. The interactive 3D-models allows the user to directly visualize the morphology of the granulomas and to understand the localization of the granulomas. The 3D-models can be used for multiple purposes and provide both an educational source as a gold standard for further animal studies, human research and the development of in silico models on the topic of central nervous system tuberculosis.

The immunological architecture of granulomatous inflammation in central nervous system tuberculosis

Of all tuberculosis (TB) cases, 1% affects the central nervous system (CNS), with a mortality rate of up to 60%. Our aim is to fill the 'key gap' in TBM research by analyzing brain specimens in a unique historical cohort of 84 patients, focusing on granuloma formation. We describe three different types: non-necrotizing, necrotizing gummatous, and necrotizing abscess type granuloma. Our hypothesis is that these different types of granuloma are developmental stages of the same pathological process. All types were present in each patient and were mainly localized in the leptomeninges. Intra-parenchymal granulomas were less abundant than the leptomeningeal ones and mainly located close to the cerebrospinal fluid (subpial and subependymal). We found that most of the intraparenchymal granulomas are an extension of leptomeningeal lesions which is the opposite of the classical Rich focus theory. We present a 3D-model to facilitate further understanding of the topographic relation of granulomas with leptomeninges, brain parenchyma and blood vessels. We describe innate and adaptive immune responses during granuloma formation including the cytokine profiles. We emphasize the presence of leptomeningeal B-cell aggregates as tertiary lymphoid structures. Our study forms a basis for further research in neuroinflammation and infectious diseases of the CNS, especially TB.

Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis

BACKGROUND

In the face of rapidly changing data, a range of case fatality ratio estimates for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been produced that differ substantially in magnitude. We aimed to provide robust estimates, accounting for censoring and ascertainment biases.

METHODS

We collected individual-case data for patients who died from COVID-19 in Hubei, mainland China (reported by national and provincial health commissions to Feb 8, 2020), and for cases outside of mainland China (from government or ministry of health websites and media reports for 37 countries, as well as Hong Kong and Macau, until Feb 25, 2020). These individual-case data were used to estimate the time between onset of symptoms and outcome (death or discharge from hospital). We next obtained age-stratified estimates of the case fatality ratio by relating the aggregate distribution of cases to the observed cumulative deaths in China, assuming a constant attack rate by age and adjusting for demography and age-based and location-based under-ascertainment. We also estimated the case fatality ratio from individual line-list data on 1334 cases identified outside of mainland China. Using data on the prevalence of PCR-confirmed cases in international residents repatriated from China, we obtained age-stratified estimates of the infection fatality ratio. Furthermore, data on age-stratified severity in a subset of 3665 cases from China were used to estimate the proportion of infected individuals who are likely to require hospitalisation.

FINDINGS

Using data on 24 deaths that occurred in mainland China and 165 recoveries outside of China, we estimated the mean duration from onset of symptoms to death to be 17·8 days (95% credible interval [CrI] 16·9-19·2) and to hospital discharge to be 24·7 days (22·9-28·1). In all laboratory confirmed and clinically diagnosed cases from mainland China (n=70 117), we estimated a crude case fatality ratio (adjusted for censoring) of 3·67% (95% CrI 3·56-3·80). However, after further adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment, we obtained a best estimate of the case fatality ratio in China of 1·38% (1·23-1·53), with substantially higher ratios in older age groups (0·32% [0·27-0·38] in those aged <60 years vs 6·4% [5·7-7·2] in those aged ≥60 years), up to 13·4% (11·2-15·9) in those aged 80 years or older. Estimates of case fatality ratio from international cases stratified by age were consistent with those from China (parametric estimate 1·4% [0·4-3·5] in those aged <60 years [n=360] and 4·5% [1·8-11·1] in those aged ≥60 years [n=151]). Our estimated overall infection fatality ratio for China was 0·66% (0·39-1·33), with an increasing profile with age. Similarly, estimates of the proportion of infected individuals likely to be hospitalised increased with age up to a maximum of 18·4% (11·0-37·6) in those aged 80 years or older.

INTERPRETATION

These early estimates give an indication of the fatality ratio across the spectrum of COVID-19 disease and show a strong age gradient in risk of death.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council.

Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis

BACKGROUND

In the face of rapidly changing data, a range of case fatality ratio estimates for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been produced that differ substantially in magnitude. We aimed to provide robust estimates, accounting for censoring and ascertainment biases.

METHODS

We collected individual-case data for patients who died from COVID-19 in Hubei, mainland China (reported by national and provincial health commissions to Feb 8, 2020), and for cases outside of mainland China (from government or ministry of health websites and media reports for 37 countries, as well as Hong Kong and Macau, until Feb 25, 2020). These individual-case data were used to estimate the time between onset of symptoms and outcome (death or discharge from hospital). We next obtained age-stratified estimates of the case fatality ratio by relating the aggregate distribution of cases to the observed cumulative deaths in China, assuming a constant attack rate by age and adjusting for demography and age-based and location-based under-ascertainment. We also estimated the case fatality ratio from individual line-list data on 1334 cases identified outside of mainland China. Using data on the prevalence of PCR-confirmed cases in international residents repatriated from China, we obtained age-stratified estimates of the infection fatality ratio. Furthermore, data on age-stratified severity in a subset of 3665 cases from China were used to estimate the proportion of infected individuals who are likely to require hospitalisation.

FINDINGS

Using data on 24 deaths that occurred in mainland China and 165 recoveries outside of China, we estimated the mean duration from onset of symptoms to death to be 17·8 days (95% credible interval [CrI] 16·9-19·2) and to hospital discharge to be 24·7 days (22·9-28·1). In all laboratory confirmed and clinically diagnosed cases from mainland China (n=70 117), we estimated a crude case fatality ratio (adjusted for censoring) of 3·67% (95% CrI 3·56-3·80). However, after further adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment, we obtained a best estimate of the case fatality ratio in China of 1·38% (1·23-1·53), with substantially higher ratios in older age groups (0·32% [0·27-0·38] in those aged <60 years vs 6·4% [5·7-7·2] in those aged ≥60 years), up to 13·4% (11·2-15·9) in those aged 80 years or older. Estimates of case fatality ratio from international cases stratified by age were consistent with those from China (parametric estimate 1·4% [0·4-3·5] in those aged <60 years [n=360] and 4·5% [1·8-11·1] in those aged ≥60 years [n=151]). Our estimated overall infection fatality ratio for China was 0·66% (0·39-1·33), with an increasing profile with age. Similarly, estimates of the proportion of infected individuals likely to be hospitalised increased with age up to a maximum of 18·4% (11·0-37·6) in those aged 80 years or older.

INTERPRETATION

These early estimates give an indication of the fatality ratio across the spectrum of COVID-19 disease and show a strong age gradient in risk of death.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council.

Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis

BACKGROUND

In the face of rapidly changing data, a range of case fatality ratio estimates for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been produced that differ substantially in magnitude. We aimed to provide robust estimates, accounting for censoring and ascertainment biases.

METHODS

We collected individual-case data for patients who died from COVID-19 in Hubei, mainland China (reported by national and provincial health commissions to Feb 8, 2020), and for cases outside of mainland China (from government or ministry of health websites and media reports for 37 countries, as well as Hong Kong and Macau, until Feb 25, 2020). These individual-case data were used to estimate the time between onset of symptoms and outcome (death or discharge from hospital). We next obtained age-stratified estimates of the case fatality ratio by relating the aggregate distribution of cases to the observed cumulative deaths in China, assuming a constant attack rate by age and adjusting for demography and age-based and location-based under-ascertainment. We also estimated the case fatality ratio from individual line-list data on 1334 cases identified outside of mainland China. Using data on the prevalence of PCR-confirmed cases in international residents repatriated from China, we obtained age-stratified estimates of the infection fatality ratio. Furthermore, data on age-stratified severity in a subset of 3665 cases from China were used to estimate the proportion of infected individuals who are likely to require hospitalisation.

FINDINGS

Using data on 24 deaths that occurred in mainland China and 165 recoveries outside of China, we estimated the mean duration from onset of symptoms to death to be 17·8 days (95% credible interval [CrI] 16·9-19·2) and to hospital discharge to be 24·7 days (22·9-28·1). In all laboratory confirmed and clinically diagnosed cases from mainland China (n=70 117), we estimated a crude case fatality ratio (adjusted for censoring) of 3·67% (95% CrI 3·56-3·80). However, after further adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment, we obtained a best estimate of the case fatality ratio in China of 1·38% (1·23-1·53), with substantially higher ratios in older age groups (0·32% [0·27-0·38] in those aged <60 years vs 6·4% [5·7-7·2] in those aged ≥60 years), up to 13·4% (11·2-15·9) in those aged 80 years or older. Estimates of case fatality ratio from international cases stratified by age were consistent with those from China (parametric estimate 1·4% [0·4-3·5] in those aged <60 years [n=360] and 4·5% [1·8-11·1] in those aged ≥60 years [n=151]). Our estimated overall infection fatality ratio for China was 0·66% (0·39-1·33), with an increasing profile with age. Similarly, estimates of the proportion of infected individuals likely to be hospitalised increased with age up to a maximum of 18·4% (11·0-37·6) in those aged 80 years or older.

INTERPRETATION

These early estimates give an indication of the fatality ratio across the spectrum of COVID-19 disease and show a strong age gradient in risk of death.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council.

Adoption and impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19

Background: Several non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been implemented across the world to control the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Social distancing (SD) interventions applied so far have included school closures, remote working and quarantine. These measures have been shown to have large impacts on pandemic influenza transmission. However, there has been comparatively little examination of such measures for COVID-19. Methods: We examined the existing literature, and collated data, on implementation of NPIs to examine their effects on the COVID-19 pandemic so far. Data on NPIs were collected from official government websites as well as from media sources. Results: Measures such as travel restrictions have been implemented in multiple countries and appears to have slowed the geographic spread of COVID-19 and reduced initial case numbers. We find that, due to the relatively sparse information on the differences with and without interventions, it is difficult to quantitatively assess the efficacy of many interventions. Similarly, whilst the comparison to other pandemic diseases such as influenza can be helpful, there are key differences that could affect the efficacy of similar NPIs. Conclusions: The timely implementation of control measures is key to their success and must strike a balance between early enough application to reduce the peak of the epidemic and ensuring that they can be feasibly maintained for an appropriate duration. Such measures can have large societal impacts and they need to be appropriately justified to the population. As the pandemic of COVID-19 progresses, quantifying the impact of interventions will be a vital consideration for the appropriate use of mitigation strategies.

Estimating the number of undetected COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China

Background: As of August 2021, every region of the world has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 196,000,000 cases worldwide. Methods: We analysed COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China to different regions and countries, comparing the region- and country-specific rates of detected and confirmed cases per flight volume to estimate the relative sensitivity of surveillance in different regions and countries. Results: Although travel restrictions from Wuhan City and other cities across China may have reduced the absolute number of travellers to and from China, we estimated that up to 70% (95% CI: 54% - 80%) of imported cases could remain undetected relative to the sensitivity of surveillance in Singapore. The percentage of undetected imported cases rises to 75% (95% CI 66% - 82%) when comparing to the surveillance sensitivity in multiple countries. Conclusions: Our analysis shows that a large number of COVID-19 cases remain undetected across the world.  These undetected cases potentially resulted in multiple chains of human-to-human transmission outside mainland China.

Estimating the number of undetected COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China

Background: As of August 2021, every region of the world has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 196,000,000 cases worldwide. Methods: We analysed COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China to different regions and countries, comparing the region- and country-specific rates of detected and confirmed cases per flight volume to estimate the relative sensitivity of surveillance in different regions and countries. Results: Although travel restrictions from Wuhan City and other cities across China may have reduced the absolute number of travellers to and from China, we estimated that up to 70% (95% CI: 54% - 80%) of imported cases could remain undetected relative to the sensitivity of surveillance in Singapore. The percentage of undetected imported cases rises to 75% (95% CI 66% - 82%) when comparing to the surveillance sensitivity in multiple countries. Conclusions: Our analysis shows that a large number of COVID-19 cases remain undetected across the world.  These undetected cases potentially resulted in multiple chains of human-to-human transmission outside mainland China.

Estimating the number of undetected COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China

Background: Since the start of the COVID-19 epidemic in late 2019, there have been more than 152 affected regions and countries with over 110,000 confirmed cases outside mainland China. Methods: We analysed COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China to different regions and countries, comparing the region- and country-specific rates of detected and confirmed cases per flight volume to estimate the relative sensitivity of surveillance in different regions and countries. Results: Although travel restrictions from Wuhan City and other cities across China may have reduced the absolute number of travellers to and from China, we estimated that more than two thirds (70%, 95% CI: 54% - 80%, compared to Singapore; 75%, 95% CI: 66% - 82%, compared to multiple countries) of cases exported from mainland China have remained undetected. Conclusions: These undetected cases potentially resulted in multiple chains of human-to-human transmission outside mainland China.