Land-based measures to mitigate climate change: Potential and feasibility by country

Land-based climate mitigation measures have gained significant attention and importance in public and private sector climate policies. Building on previous studies, we refine and update the mitigation potentials for 20 land-based measures in >200 countries and five regions, comparing "bottom-up" sectoral estimates with integrated assessment models (IAMs). We also assess implementation feasibility at the country level. Cost-effective (available up to $100/tCO₂ eq) land-based mitigation is 8-13.8 GtCO₂ eq yr^-1 between 2020 and 2050, with the bottom end of this range representing the IAM median and the upper end representing the sectoral estimate. The cost-effective sectoral estimate is about 40% of available technical potential and is in line with achieving a 1.5°C pathway in 2050. Compared to technical potentials, cost-effective estimates represent a more realistic and actionable target for policy. The cost-effective potential is approximately 50% from forests and other ecosystems, 35% from agriculture, and 15% from demand-side measures. The potential varies sixfold across the five regions assessed (0.75-4.8 GtCO2eq yr^-1 ) and the top 15 countries account for about 60% of the global potential. Protection of forests and other ecosystems and demand-side measures present particularly high mitigation efficiency, high provision of co-benefits, and relatively lower costs. The feasibility assessment suggests that governance, economic investment, and socio-cultural conditions influence the likelihood that land-based mitigation potentials are realized. A substantial portion of potential (80%) is in developing countries and LDCs, where feasibility barriers are of greatest concern. Assisting countries to overcome barriers may result in significant quantities of near-term, low-cost mitigation while locally achieving important climate adaptation and development benefits. Opportunities among countries vary widely depending on types of land-based measures available, their potential co-benefits and risks, and their feasibility. Enhanced investments and country-specific plans that accommodate this complexity are urgently needed to realize the large global potential from improved land stewardship.

Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time

Electrification of passenger road transport and household heating features prominently in current and planned policy frameworks to achieve greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets. However, since electricity generation involves using fossil fuels, it is not established where and when the replacement of fossil fuel-based technologies by electric cars and heat pumps can effectively reduce overall emissions. Could electrification policy backfire by promoting their diffusion before electricity is decarbonised? Here, we analyse current and future emissions trade-offs in 59 world regions with heterogeneous households, by combining forward-looking integrated assessment model simulations with bottom-up life-cycle assessment. We show that already under current carbon intensities of electricity generation, electric cars and heat pumps are less emission-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives in 53 world regions, representing 95% of global transport and heating demand. Even if future end-use electrification is not matched by rapid power sector decarbonisation, it likely avoids emissions in almost all world regions.

[Practice assistant sometimes misses urgent request for help: telephone triage in general practice]

OBJECTIVE

To assess the organisation and appropriateness of telephone triage in general practices in the Netherlands.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional observational study.

METHODS

Via e-mail we invited all members of the Dutch Association of practice assistants to complete an online survey. The questionnaire included questions about practice assistants' background characteristics and the practices' triage organisation. Furthermore, they were asked to assess the indicated type of care for a number of fictive case scenarios involving a variety of health problems and levels of urgency. To determine the appropriateness of the respondents' assessments, each was compared to a reference standard agreed by experts. In addition, the association between practice assistants' background characteristics and organizational setup of the triage organisation with the appropriateness of triage was examined.

RESULTS

The response rate was 41.1% (N=973). The required care was assessed appropriately in 63.6% of the cases, over-estimated in 19.3% and under-estimated in 17.1% of cases. The sensitivity of identifying patients with a highly urgent problem was 76.7%, whereas the specificity was 94.0%. The appropriateness of the assessments of the required care was higher for more experienced assistants and assistants with regular daily work meetings with the GP. Triage training, use of a triage tool and authorization of advice provision were not associated with appropriateness of triage.

CONCLUSION

Triage by practice assistants in general practices is efficient, but potentially unsafe in highly urgent cases. It is therefore important to train practice assistants in the identification of highly urgent cases.