Suicide rates in the UK Armed Forces, compared with the general workforce and merchant shipping during peacetime years since 1900

INTRODUCTION

The main objective was to compare suicide rates and their trends across the three UK Armed forces (Royal Navy, Army and Royal Air Force) from 1900 to 2020. Further objectives were to compare suicide rates with those in the corresponding general population and in UK merchant shipping and to discuss preventative measures.

METHODS

Examination of annual mortality reports and returns, death inquiry files and official statistics. The main outcome measure was the suicide rate per 100 000 population employed.

RESULTS

Since 1990, there have been significant reductions in suicide rates in each of the Armed Forces, although a non-significant increase in the Army since 2010. Compared with the corresponding general population, during the most recent decade from 2010 up to 2020, suicide rates were 73% lower in the Royal Air Force, 56% lower in the Royal Navy and 43% lower in the Army. Suicide rates have been significantly decreased in the Royal Air Force since the 1950s, in the Royal Navy since the 1970s and in the Army since the 1980s (comparisons for the Royal Navy and the Army were not available from the late 1940s to the 1960s).During the earliest decades from 1900 to the 1930s, suicide rates in the Armed Forces were mostly quite similar or moderately increased compared with the general population, but far lower than in merchant shipping. Following legislative changes in the last 30 years, suicide rates through poisoning by gases and through firearms or explosives have fallen sharply.

CONCLUSIONS

The study shows that suicide rates in the Armed Forces have been lower than in the general population over many decades. The sharp reductions in suicide rates over the last 30 years suggest the effectiveness of recent preventative measures, including reductions in access to a method of suicide and well-being initiatives.

Incidence and prevalence of eosinophilic oesophagitis across Europe: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Several studies have reported large increases in the incidence of eosinophilic oesophagitis (EoE) in the last 20 years. We aimed to systematically review the incidence and prevalence of EoE, focused on all European countries.

METHODS

Systematic review and meta-analysis up to 31 December 2022, based on PubMed, CINAHL and extensive hand searching of reference lists. Twenty-five eligible studies were identified and included.

RESULTS

For both adults and children, the highest EoE incidence and prevalence have been reported from regional studies in Spain. EoE incidence for both adults and children was significantly lower (p < 0.001) in nationwide studies (meta-analysis = 3.64 per 100,000 person-years overall) compared with regional or centre-based studies (7.16). EoE incidence and prevalence were significantly higher (p < 0.001) in adults than children. All studies that reported on longitudinal trends in EoE incidence showed increases over time, more markedly during more recent years. Larger increases in incidence tend to refer to regional rather than nationwide studies; from Spain, Switzerland and Denmark, both for paediatric and adult age groups. Increases in EoE incidence 100,000 person-years were larger than for incidence per number of diagnostic endoscopies. The most frequently reported co-morbidities in adults were rhinitis, followed by asthma, food allergy and gastroesophageal reflux disease, and in children, erosive oesophagitis, asthma, food allergy and rhinitis.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of EoE has increased in Europe over the last 30 years, exceeding increases in the volume of oesophago-gastro-duodenoscopies performed. The patchy and low incidence and prevalence of EoE generally in Europe and compared with North America, may reflect a lack of clinical awareness and research focus rather than a genuinely low incidence of EoE. A co-ordinated Europe-wide study that uses standardised methodology is urgently needed to provide a comprehensive picture of EoE incidence and prevalence across Europe.

Forgotten fatalities: British military, mining and maritime accidents since 1900

Background

Comparative long-term trends in fatal accident rates in the UK’s most hazardous occupations have not been reported.

Aims

To compare trends in fatal accident rates in six of the most hazardous occupations (the three armed forces, merchant shipping, sea fishing and coal mining) and the general British workforce during peacetime years since 1900.

Methods

Examinations of annual mortality reports, returns, inquiry files and statistics. The main outcome measure was the fatal accident rate per 100 000 population employed.

Results

These six occupations accounted for ~40% of all fatal accidents in the British workforce. Fatal accident rates were highest in merchant shipping to 1914 (400–600 per 100 000) and in the Royal Air Force and sea fishing by the early 1920s (around 300 per 100 000). Since the 1950s sea fishing has remained the most hazardous occupation (50–200). Widespread reductions in fatal accident rates for each occupation have been greatest in recent years in the three armed forces and merchant shipping. Compared with the general workforce, relative risks of fatalities have increased in recent decades in all these occupations except shipping.

Conclusions

All six occupations still have high fatal accident rates. The greatly increased fatalities in sea fishing generally and in the Royal Air Force during its early years reflect, for different reasons, cultures of extreme risk-taking in these two sectors. Reductions in fatality rates in the armed forces over the last 20 years are due largely to decreases in land transport accidents.

Systematic review and meta-analysis: the incidence and prevalence of paediatric coeliac disease across Europe

BACKGROUND

Coeliac disease is one of the most prevalent immune-mediated gastrointestinal disorders in children.

AIM

To review the incidence and prevalence of paediatric coeliac disease, and their trends, regionally across Europe, overall and according to age at diagnosis.

METHODS

Systematic review and meta-analysis from January 1, 1950 to December 31, 2019, based on PubMed, CINAHL and the Cochrane Library, searches of grey literature and websites and hand searching of reference lists. A total of 127 eligible studies were included.

RESULTS

The prevalence of previously undiagnosed coeliac disease from screening surveys (histology based) ranged from 0.10% to 3.03% (median = 0.70%), with a significantly increasing annual trend (P = 0.029). Prevalence since 2000 was significantly higher in northern Europe (1.60%) than in eastern (0.98%), southern (0.69%) and western (0.60%) Europe. Large increases in the incidence of diagnosed coeliac disease across Europe have reached 50 per 100 000 person-years in Scandinavia, Finland and Spain. The median age at diagnosis increased from 1.9 years before 1990 to 7.6 since 2000. Larger increases in incidence were found in older age groups than in infants and ages <5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Paediatric coeliac disease incidence and prevalence have risen across Europe and appear highest in Scandinavia, Finland and Spain. The most recent evidence shows large increases in incidence in most regions, but stabilisation in some (notably Sweden and Finland). Sharp increases in the age at diagnosis may reflect increases in milder and asymptomatic cases diagnosed since reliable serology testing became widely used, through endomysial antibodies after 1990 and tissue transglutaminase antibodies around 2000.

A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Paediatric Inflammatory Bowel Disease Incidence and Prevalence Across Europe

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Inflammatory bowel disease [IBD] is often one of the most devastating and debilitating chronic gastrointestinal disorders in children and adolescents. The main objectives here were to systematically review the incidence and prevalence of paediatric IBD across all 51 European states.

METHODS

We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis based on PubMed, CINAHL, the Cochrane Library, searches of reference lists, grey literature and websites, covering the period from 1970 to 2018.

RESULTS

Incidence rates for both paediatric Crohn's disease [CD] and ulcerative colitis [UC] were higher in northern Europe than in other European regions. There have been large increases in the incidence of both paediatric CD and UC over the last 50 years, which appear widespread across Europe. The largest increases for CD have been reported from Sweden, Wales, England, the Czech Republic, Denmark and Hungary, and for UC from the Czech Republic, Ireland, Sweden and Hungary. Incidence rates for paediatric CD have increased up to 9 or 10 per 100 000 population in parts of Europe, including Scandinavia, while rates for paediatric UC are often slightly lower than for CD. Prevalence reported for CD ranged from 8.2 per 100 000 to approximately 60 and, for UC, from 8.3 to approximately 30.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of paediatric IBD continues to increase throughout Europe. There is stronger evidence of a north-south than an east-west gradient in incidence across Europe. Further prospective studies are needed, preferably multinational and based on IBD registries, using standardized definitions, methodology and timescales.

Suicide, fatal injuries and drowning among the crews of United Kingdom and Bermuda registered cruise and passenger ships from 1976 to 2018

BACKGROUND

Little has been reported about mortality among crews in passenger shipping. The aim of the study was to determine the detailed causes and circumstances of deaths from unnatural causes among crews employed in United Kingdom (UK) and Bermudan registered passenger shipping, their trends, how they relate to the type of passenger ship and crew rank and to discuss preventative measures.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A longitudinal study from 1976 to 2018, based on reviews of marine accident investigation reports, death inquiry files, cruise shipping websites and online searches.

RESULTS

One hundred and forty crew fatalities in UK (127) and Bermudan (13) passenger ships were identified: from accidents and drowning (91), suicides and disappearances at sea (38), homicide, other and unexplained causes (11). Over the 43-year study period, a reduction in mortality (per 1000 ship-years) from accidents and drowning was identified (mean annual reduction: 4.3%; 95% confidence interval: 2.1-6.5%) but no significant reduction for suicides and disappearances at sea (annual reduction: 1.2% confidence interval: -1.3% to +3.7%). Most suicides and disappearances (70%) were among customer service Staff and, of 19 employed on large cruise ships, most (79%) were non-Europeans.

CONCLUSIONS

The number of suicides and probable suicides is a cause for concern, especially among customer service staff on cruise ships. These findings indicate the need for interventions to reduce suicide risks. Further studies are needed to improve the targeting of interventions. These will need both to analyse the circumstances of individual deaths and derive suicide rates according to rank, department and nationality, based on reliable population denominators.

Suicide, fatal injuries and drowning among the crews of United Kingdom and Bermuda registered cruise and passenger ships from 1976 to 2018

BACKGROUND

Little has been reported about mortality among crews in passenger shipping. The aim of the study was to determine the detailed causes and circumstances of deaths from unnatural causes among crews employed in United Kingdom (UK) and Bermudan registered passenger shipping, their trends, how they relate to the type of passenger ship and crew rank and to discuss preventative measures.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A longitudinal study from 1976 to 2018, based on reviews of marine accident investigation reports, death inquiry files, cruise shipping websites and online searches.

RESULTS

One hundred and forty crew fatalities in UK (127) and Bermudan (13) passenger ships were identified: from accidents and drowning (91), suicides and disappearances at sea (38), homicide, other and unexplained causes (11). Over the 43-year study period, a reduction in mortality (per 1000 ship-years) from accidents and drowning was identified (mean annual reduction: 4.3%; 95% confidence interval: 2.1-6.5%) but no significant reduction for suicides and disappearances at sea (annual reduction: 1.2% confidence interval: -1.3% to +3.7%). Most suicides and disappearances (70%) were among customer service Staff and, of 19 employed on large cruise ships, most (79%) were non-Europeans.

CONCLUSIONS

The number of suicides and probable suicides is a cause for concern, especially among customer service staff on cruise ships. These findings indicate the need for interventions to reduce suicide risks. Further studies are needed to improve the targeting of interventions. These will need both to analyse the circumstances of individual deaths and derive suicide rates according to rank, department and nationality, based on reliable population denominators.

Weekend admissions and mortality for major acute disorders across England and Wales: record linkage cohort studies

Background

To establish which major disorders are susceptible to increased mortality following acute admissions on weekends, compared with week days, and how this may be explained.

Methods

Cohorts based on national administrative inpatient and mortality data for 14,168,443 hospitalised patients in England and 913,068 in Wales who were admitted for 66 disorders that were associated with at least 200 deaths within 30 days of acute admission. The main outcome measure was the weekend mortality effect (defined as the conventional mortality odds ratio for admissions on weekends compared with week days).

Results

There were large, statistically significant weekend mortality effects (> 20%) in England for 22 of the 66 conditions and in both countries for 14. These 14 were 4 of 13 cancers (oesophageal, colorectal, lung and lymphomas); 4 of 13 circulatory disorders (angina, abdominal aortic aneurysm, peripheral vascular disease and arterial embolism & thrombosis); one of 8 respiratory disorders (pleural effusion); 2 of 12 gastrointestinal disorders (alcoholic and other liver disease); 2 of 3 ageing-related disorders (Alzheimer’s disease and dementia); none of 7 trauma conditions; and one of 10 other disorders (acute renal failure). Across the disorders, 64% of the variation in weekend mortality effects in England and Wales was explained by reductions in admission rates at weekends and the medical disease category.

Conclusions

The effect of weekend admission on 30 day mortality is seen mainly for cancers, some circulatory disorders, liver disease and a few other conditions which are mainly ageing- or cancer-related. Most of the increased mortality is associated with reduced admission rates at weekends and the medical disease category.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12913-019-4286-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Crew and passenger deaths from vessel accidents in United Kingdom passenger ships since 1900

BACKGROUND

There is very limited systematic analysis of the causes and consequences of maritime accidents across the whole passenger sector during the twentieth century either in United Kingdom (UK) or in other maritime nations, but some of the larger events have been the subject of detailed investigations that led to improved safety measures. In recent years, there has been increased attention to the analysis of passenger ship accidents, especially in relation to the two now dominant markets: vehicle/passenger ferries and cruise ships.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Long-term trends since 1900 in passenger and crew deaths on UK seagoing pas- senger ships that have sustained a maritime accident, as defined by Lloyds Register, have been collated and analysed.

RESULTS

Over the course of the 20th century, there has been a continuous fall in the number of incidents and in their severity. This may be a reflection of improved vessel safety, however the scale and nature of UK passenger shipping has also changed markedly over the period.

CONCLUSIONS

In addition to the reducing frequency of deaths it is apparent that the majority of fatalities in both crew and passengers came from a very small number of major events during the study period. Altho- ugh there has been no major disaster involving a UK passenger ship in the last 30 years, major casualties with heavy loss of life continue in the world passenger fleet, in recent years involving flags such as Greece, Indonesia, Italy, Panama and The Philippines.

Early and late mortality following unscheduled admissions for severe liver disease across England and Wales

BACKGROUND

There is a known shortfall in hepatology service resources across England and Wales.

AIM

To investigate early and late mortality following unscheduled admissions for severe liver disease, overall and by cause of death, and to determine how mortality is related to admissions to transplant centres, transplant surgery, hospital size, consultant specialty, patient socio-demographics, seasonal and geographical factors.

METHODS

Cohorts of people with a first unscheduled admission for severe liver disease across England and Wales from 2004, based on record linkage of national inpatient and mortality data.

FINDINGS

Mortality for alcoholic liver disease and hepatic failure was 23.4% and 35.4% respectively at 60 days and 61.8% and 57.1% at 5 years. Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were extremely high at 60 days (184 and 117 respectively) and remained highly increased at 5 years (16.7 and 6.3). Mortality at 5 years was most elevated from liver disease, viral hepatitis and varices. The 60-day mortality was significantly lower for patients seen by consultant hepatologists and gastroenterologists. Both early and late mortality were significantly reduced for patients admitted to transplant centres or larger hospitals, who received a liver transplant, or were resident in London. Early mortality was significantly higher for patients admitted in winter and autumn, while elevated mortality among the most vs least deprived quintile increased with longer follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

The study shows a very poor prognosis for people with unscheduled hospitalisation for severe liver disease. The findings suggest that access to specialist expertise and services improves survival, both in the short and long term.

Suicide following acute admissions for physical illnesses across England and Wales

BACKGROUND

The study aim was to establish and quantify suicide risk following acute admissions for all major physical illnesses, for confirmatory purposes, from two independent information sources from different countries.

METHODS

Record linkage of inpatient and death certificate data for 11 004 389 acute admissions for physical illnesses in England and 713 496 in Wales. The main outcome measure was standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) for suicide at 1 year following discharge from hospital.

RESULTS

There were 1781 suicides within 1 year of discharge in England (SMR = 1.7; 95% = 1.6-1.8) and 131 in Wales (SMR = 2.0; 1.7-2.3). Of 48 major physical illnesses that were associated with at least eight suicides in either country, there was high consistent suicide mortality (significant SMR >3) in both countries for constipation (SMR = 4.1 in England, 7.5 in Wales), gastritis (4.4 and 4.9) and upper gastrointestinal bleeding (3.4 and 4.5). There was high suicide mortality in one country for alcoholic liver disease, other liver disease and chronic pancreatitis; for epilepsy and Parkinson's disease; for diabetes, hypoglycaemia and hypo-osmolality & hyponatraemia; and for pneumonia, back pain and urinary tract infections.

CONCLUSIONS

There is little or no increased suicide mortality following acute admissions for most physical illnesses. Much of the increased suicide mortality relates to gastrointestinal disorders that are often alcohol related or specific chronic conditions, which may be linked to side effects from certain therapeutic medications. Acute hospital admissions for physical illnesses may therefore provide an opportunity for targeted suicide prevention among people with certain conditions, particularly alcohol related disorders.

Weekend admission and mortality for gastrointestinal disorders across England and Wales

BACKGROUND

Little has been reported on mortality following admissions at weekends for many gastrointestinal (GI) disorders. The aim was to establish whether GI disorders are susceptible to increased mortality following unscheduled admission on weekends compared with weekdays.

METHODS

Record linkage was undertaken of national administrative inpatient and mortality data for people in England and Wales who were hospitalized as an emergency for one of 19 major GI disorders.

RESULTS

The study included 2 254 701 people in England and 155 464 in Wales. For 11 general surgical and medical GI disorders there were little, or no, significant weekend effects on mortality at 30 days in either country. There were large consistent weekend effects in both countries for severe liver disease (England: 26·2 (95 per cent c.i. 21·1 to 31·6) per cent; Wales: 32·0 (12·4 to 55·1 per cent) and GI cancer (England: 21·8 (19·1 to 24·5) per cent; Wales: 25·0 (15·0 to 35·9) per cent), which were lower in patients managed by surgeons. Admission rates were lower at weekends than on weekdays, most strongly for severe liver disease (by 43·3 per cent in England and 51·4 per cent in Wales) and GI cancer (by 44·6 and 52·8 per cent respectively). Both mortality and the weekend mortality effect for GI cancer were lower for patients managed by surgeons.

DISCUSSION

There is little, or no, evidence of a weekend mortality effect for most major general surgical or medical GI disorders, but large weekend effects for GI cancer and severe liver disease. Lower admission rates at weekends indicate more severe cases. The findings for severe liver disease may suggest a lack of specialist hepatological resources. For cancers, reduced availability of end-of-life care in the community at weekends may be the cause.

Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomised Trials to Ascertain Fatal Gastrointestinal Bleeding Events Attributable to Preventive Low-Dose Aspirin: No Evidence of Increased Risk

BACKGROUND

Aspirin has been shown to lower the incidence and the mortality of vascular disease and cancer but its wider adoption appears to be seriously impeded by concerns about gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding. Unlike heart attacks, stroke and cancer, GI bleeding is an acute event, usually followed by complete recovery. We propose therefore that a more appropriate evaluation of the risk-benefit balance would be based on fatal adverse events, rather than on the incidence of bleeding. We therefore present a literature search and meta-analysis to ascertain fatal events attributable to low-dose aspirin.

METHODS

In a systematic literature review we identified reports of randomised controlled trials of aspirin in which both total GI bleeding events and bleeds that led to death had been reported. Principal investigators of studies in which fatal events had not been adequately described were contacted via email and asked for further details. A meta-analyses was then performed to estimate the risk of fatal gastrointestinal bleeding attributable to low-dose aspirin.

RESULTS

Eleven randomised trials were identified in the literature search. In these the relative risk (RR) of 'major' incident GI bleeding in subjects who had been randomised to low-dose aspirin was 1.55 (95% CI 1.33, 1.83), and the risk of a bleed attributable to aspirin being fatal was 0.45 (95% CI 0.25, 0.80). In all the subjects randomised to aspirin, compared with those randomised not to receive aspirin, there was no significant increase in the risk of a fatal bleed (RR 0.77; 95% CI 0.41, 1.43).

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of the adverse events caused by aspirin are GI bleeds, and there appears to be no valid evidence that the overall frequency of fatal GI bleeds is increased by aspirin. The substantive risk for prophylactic aspirin is therefore cerebral haemorrhage which can be fatal or severely disabling, with an estimated risk of one death and one disabling stroke for every 1,000 people taking aspirin for ten years. These adverse effects of aspirin should be weighed against the reductions in vascular disease and cancer.

The impact of social deprivation on mortality following hip fracture in England and Wales: a record linkage study

We used routine hospital data to investigate whether socially deprived patients had an increased risk of dying following hip fracture compared with affluent patients. We found that the most deprived patients had a significantly increased risk of dying at 30, 90 and 365 days compared with the most affluent patients.

INTRODUCTION

To identify whether social deprivation has any effect on mortality risk after emergency admission with hip fracture and to determine whether any increased mortality observed among deprived groups was associated with patient and hospital-related factors.

METHODS

We used routine, linked hospital inpatient and mortality data for emergency admissions with a hip fracture in both England and Wales between 2004 and 2011. Mortality rates at 30, 90 and 365 days were reported. Logistic regression was used to identify any significant increases in mortality with higher levels of social deprivation and the influence of other risk factors on any increased mortality among the most deprived group.

RESULTS

Mortality rates at 30, 90 and 365 days were 9.3, 17.4 and 29.0 % in England and 8.3, 16.1 and 27.9 % in Wales. Social deprivation was significantly associated with increased mortality in the most deprived quintile compared with the least deprived quintile at 30, 90 and 365 days in England (OR = 1.187, 1.185 and 1.154, respectively) and at 90 and 365 days in Wales (1.135 and 1.203). There was a little interaction between deprivation and other risk factors influencing 30- and 365-day mortality except for patient age, pre-fracture residence and hospital size.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrated a positive association between social deprivation and increased mortality at 30 days post-admission for hip fracture in both England and Wales that was still evident at 90 and 365 days. We found little influence of other factors on social inequalities in mortality risk at 30 and 365 days post-admission.

British merchant seafarers 1900-2010: A history of extreme risks of mortality from infectious disease

BACKGROUND

This study established trends in major infectious disease mortality in British merchant shipping from 1900 to 2010 as compared with the British male working population and the Royal Navy.

METHODS

A population mortality study of six infectious diseases using annual government mortality returns and death inquiry files for British merchant shipping and the Royal Navy, and official mortality data for the general male working aged population.

FINDINGS

Relative mortality risks for each disease were increased significantly in British merchant shipping when compared with the general population; malaria by 58.2 fold, yellow fever (6276), typhoid (9.5), cholera (1734), dysentery (20.6) and smallpox (142). For all six diseases combined, relative mortality risks were 21.5 compared with the general population and 3.5 compared with the Royal Navy. Mortality trend patterns varied between diseases, but reductions in mortality in British merchant shipping consistently lagged many years behind those in both the British general population and the Royal Navy.

CONCLUSIONS

Merchant seamen were at far higher risk of death than probably any other occupational group of the population. Much of these excess risks came from exposure to infection in unhygienic and tropical ports, although some was a result of neglect of feasible preventative measures.

Review article: the prevalence of Helicobacter pylori and the incidence of gastric cancer across Europe

BACKGROUND

There is little up-to-date review evidence on the prevalence of Helicobacter pylori across Europe.

AIM

To establish regional and national patterns in H. pylori prevalence across Europe. Secondly, to establish trends over time in H. pylori prevalence and gastric cancer incidence and, thirdly, to report on the relationship between H. pylori prevalence and age group across Europe.

METHODS

A review of H. pylori prevalence from unselected surveys of adult or general populations across 35 European countries and four European regions since 1990. Secondly, an analysis of trends over time in H. pylori prevalence and in gastric cancer incidence from cancer registry data.

RESULTS

Helicobacter pylori prevalence was lower in northern and western Europe than in eastern and southern Europe (P < 0.001). In 11 of 12 European studies that reported on trends, there were sharp reductions in H. pylori prevalence (mean annual reduction = 3.1%). The mean annual reduction in the incidence of gastric cancer across Europe from 1993 to 2007 was 2.1% with little variation regionally across Europe (north 2.2%, west 2.3%, east 1.9% and south 2.0%). Sharp increases in age-related prevalence of H. pylori often levelled off for middle age groups of about 50 years onwards, especially in areas with high prevalence.

CONCLUSIONS

This review shows that H. pylori prevalence is much higher in less affluent regions of Europe and that age-related increases in prevalence are confined to younger age groups in some areas. There were sharp reductions in both H. pylori prevalence and gastric cancer incidence throughout Europe.

The impact of social deprivation on mortality following acute myocardial infarction, stroke or subarachnoid haemorrhage: a record linkage study

Background

The impact of social deprivation on mortality following acute myocardial infarction (AMI), stroke and subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) is unclear. Our objectives were, firstly, to determine, for each condition, whether there was higher mortality following admission according to social deprivation and secondly, to determine how any higher mortality for deprived groups may be correlated with factors including patient demographics, timing of admission and hospital size.

Methods

Routinely collected, linked hospital inpatient, mortality and primary care data were analysed for patients admitted as an emergency to hospitals in Wales between 2004 and 2011 with AMI (n = 30,663), stroke (37,888) and SAH (1753). Logistic regression with Bonferroni correction was used to examine, firstly, any significant increases in mortality with social deprivation quintile and, secondly, the influence of patient demographics, timing of admission and hospital characteristics on any higher mortality among the most socially deprived groups.

Results

Mortality was 14.3 % at 30 days for AMI, 21.4 % for stroke and 35.6 % for SAH. Social deprivation was significantly associated with higher mortality for AMI (25 %; 95 % CI = 12 %, 40 %) higher for quintile V compared with I), stroke (24 %; 14 %, 34 %), and non-significantly for SAH (32 %; −7 %, 87 %).

The higher mortality at 30 days with increased social deprivation varied significantly according to patient age for AMI patients and time period for SAH. It was also highest for both AMI and stroke patients, although not significantly for female patients, for admissions on weekdays and during autumn months.

Conclusions

We have demonstrated a positive association between social deprivation and higher mortality following emergency admissions for both AMI and stroke. The study findings also suggest that the influence of patient demographics, timing of admission and hospital size on social inequalities in mortality are quite similar for AMI and stroke.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12872-015-0045-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Mortality following acute pancreatitis: social deprivation, hospital size and time of admission: record linkage study

Background

Very little is known about whether mortality following acute pancreatitis may be influenced by the following five factors: social deprivation, week day of admission, recruitment of junior doctors in August each year, European Working Time Directives (EWTDs) for junior doctors’ working hours and hospital size. The aim of this study was to establish how mortality following acute pancreatitis may be influenced by these five factors in a large cohort study.

Methods

Systematic record linkage of inpatient, mortality and primary care data for 10 589 cases of acute pancreatitis in Wales, UK (population 3.0 million), from 1999 to 2010. The main study outcome measure was mortality at 60 days following the date of admission.

Results

Mortality was 6.4% at 60 days. There was no significant variation in mortality according to social deprivation or the week day of admission. There was also no significant variation according to calendar month for acute pancreatitis overall or for gallstone aetiology, but for alcoholic acute pancreatitis, mortality was increased significantly by 93% for admissions during the months of August and September and 102% from August to October when compared with all other calendar months. Mortality was increased significantly for alcoholic aetiology in August 2004, the official month that the first EWTD was implemented, but there were no other increases following the first or second EWTDs. There were also indications of increased mortality in large hospitals when compared with small hospitals, for acute pancreatitis overall and for gallstone aetiology but not for alcoholic acute pancreatitis, although these increases in mortality were of quite marginal significance.

Conclusions

Although we found some evidence of increased mortality for patients admitted with alcoholic acute pancreatitis during August to October, in August 2004, and in large hospitals for acute pancreatitis overall and for gallstone aetiology, the study factors had limited impact on mortality following acute pancreatitis and no significant impact when adjusted for multiple comparisons.

Randomised controlled trial. Comparison Of iNfliximab and ciclosporin in STeroid Resistant Ulcerative Colitis: Trial design and protocol (CONSTRUCT)

INTRODUCTION

Many patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) present with acute exacerbations needing hospital admission. Treatment includes intravenous steroids but up to 40% of patients do not respond and require emergency colectomy. Mortality following emergency colectomy has fallen, but 10% of patients still die within 3 months of surgery. Infliximab and ciclosporin, both immunosuppressive drugs, offer hope for treating steroid-resistant UC as there is evidence of their short-term effectiveness. As there is little long-term evidence, this pragmatic randomised trial, known as Comparison Of iNfliximab and ciclosporin in STeroid Resistant Ulcerative Colitis: a Trial (CONSTRUCT), aims to compare the clinical and cost-effectiveness of infliximab and ciclosporin for steroid-resistant UC.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Between May 2010 and February 2013, 52 UK centres recruited 270 patients admitted with acute severe UC who failed to respond to intravenous steroids but did not need surgery. We allocated them at random in equal proportions between infliximab and ciclosporin.The primary clinical outcome measure is quality-adjusted survival, that is survival weighted by Crohn's and Colitis Questionnaire (CCQ) participants' scores, analysed by Cox regression. Secondary outcome measures include: the CCQ-an extension of the validated but community-focused UK Inflammatory Bowel Disease Questionnaire (IBDQ) to include patients with acute severe colitis and stoma; two general quality of life measures-EQ-5D and SF-12; mortality; survival weighted by EQ-5D; emergency and planned colectomies; readmissions; incidence of adverse events including malignancies, serious infections and renal disorders; disease activity; National Health Service (NHS) costs and patient-borne costs. Interviews investigate participants' views on therapies for acute severe UC and healthcare professionals' views on the two drugs and their administration.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The Research Ethics Committee for Wales has given ethical approval (Ref. 08/MRE09/42); each participating Trust or Health Board has given NHS Reseach & Development approval. We plan to present trial findings at international and national conferences and publish in high-impact peer-reviewed journals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER ISRCTN

22663589; EudraCT number: 2008-001968-36.

Fatal accidents and injuries among merchant seafarers worldwide

BACKGROUND

The British merchant fleet has expanded in recent years but it is not known whether this expansion has led to proportionate changes in mortality.

AIMS

To investigate mortality from accidents and injuries in British merchant shipping, to determine whether this has increased in recent years, to compare fatal accident rates across British industries and to review fatal accident rates in merchant shipping worldwide over the last 70 years.

METHODS

Examinations of marine accident investigation files, death registers and death inquiry files, national mortality statistics, worldwide surveys and review methodology. The main outcome measure was the fatal accident rate per 100 000 worker-years.

RESULTS

Of 66 deaths in British shipping from 2003 to 2012, 49 were caused by accidents, which largely affected deck ratings. The fatal accident rate in British shipping increased by 4.7% per annum from 2003, although this was not significant (95% confidence interval: -5.1 to 15.6%). During 2003-12, the fatal accident rate in shipping (14.5 per 100 000) was 21 times that in the general British workforce, 4.7 times that in the construction industry and 13 times that in manufacturing. Of 20 merchant fleets worldwide with population-based fatal accident rates, most have shown large reductions over time.

CONCLUSIONS

The expansion of the British merchant fleet in recent years does not appear to have had a major impact on fatal accidents. Further preventive measures should target fatalities during mooring and towing operations. Internationally, most shipping fleets have over time experienced large decreases in fatal accident rates.

The incidence of acute pancreatitis: impact of social deprivation, alcohol consumption, seasonal and demographic factors

BACKGROUND

The incidence of acute pancreatitis has increased sharply in many European countries and the USA in recent years.

AIM

To establish trends in incidence and mortality for acute pancreatitis in Wales, UK, and to assess how incidence may be linked to factors including social deprivation, seasonal effects and alcohol consumption.

METHODS

Use of record linked inpatient, mortality and primary care data for 10,589 hospitalised cases of acute pancreatitis between 1999 and 2010.

RESULTS

The incidence of acute pancreatitis was 30.0 per 100,000 population overall, mortality was 6.4% at 60 days. Incidence increased significantly from 27.6 per 100,000 in 1999 to 36.4 in 2010 (average annual increase = 2.7% per year), there was little trend in mortality (0.2% average annual reduction). The largest increases in incidence were among women aged <35 years (7.9% per year) and men aged 35-44 (5.7%) and 45-54 (5.3%). Incidence was 1.9 times higher among the most deprived quintile of patients compared with the most affluent (3.9 times higher for alcoholic acute pancreatitis and 1.5 for gallstone acute pancreatitis). Acute pancreatitis was increased significantly during the Christmas and New Year weeks by 48% (95% CI = 24-77%) for alcoholic aetiology, but not for gallstone aetiology (9%). Alcoholic admissions were increased with higher consumption of spirits and beer, but not wine.

CONCLUSIONS

The study shows an elevated rate of alcoholic acute pancreatitis during the Christmas and New Year period. Acute pancreatitis continues to rise, most rapidly for young women, while alcoholic acute pancreatitis is linked strongly with social deprivation.

High-risk occupations for suicide

BACKGROUND

High occupational suicide rates are often linked to easy occupational access to a method of suicide. This study aimed to compare suicide rates across all occupations in Britain, how they have changed over the past 30 years, and how they may vary by occupational socio-economic group. Method We used national occupational mortality statistics, census-based occupational populations and death inquiry files (for the years 1979-1980, 1982-1983 and 2001-2005). The main outcome measures were suicide rates per 100 000 population, percentage changes over time in suicide rates, standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and proportional mortality ratios (PMRs).

RESULTS

Several occupations with the highest suicide rates (per 100 000 population) during 1979-1980 and 1982-1983, including veterinarians (ranked first), pharmacists (fourth), dentists (sixth), doctors (tenth) and farmers (thirteenth), have easy occupational access to a method of suicide (pharmaceuticals or guns). By 2001-2005, there had been large significant reductions in suicide rates for each of these occupations, so that none ranked in the top 30 occupations. Occupations with significant increases over time in suicide rates were all manual occupations whereas occupations with suicide rates that decreased were mainly professional or non-manual. Variation in suicide rates that was explained by socio-economic group almost doubled over time from 11.4% in 1979-1980 and 1982-1983 to 20.7% in 2001-2005.

CONCLUSIONS

Socio-economic forces now seem to be a major determinant of high occupational suicide rates in Britain. As the increases in suicide rates among manual occupations occurred during a period of economic prosperity, carefully targeted suicide prevention initiatives could be beneficial.

Feasibility of using routinely collected inpatient data to monitor quality and inform choice: a case study using the UK inflammatory bowel disease audit

OBJECTIVE

To assess the utility and cost of using routinely collected inpatient data for large-scale audit.

DESIGN

Comparison of audit data items collected nationally in a designed audit of inflammatory bowel disease (UK IBD audit) with routinely collected inpatient data; surveys of audit sites to compare costs.

SETTING

National Health Service hospitals across England, Wales and Northern Ireland that participated in the UK IBD audit.

PATIENTS

Patients in the UK IBD audit.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Percentage agreement between designed audit data items collected for the UK IBD audit and routine inpatient data items; costs of conducting the designed UK IBD audit and the routine data audit.

RESULTS

There were very high matching rates between the designed audit data and routine data for a small subset of basic important information collected in the UK IBD audit, including mortality; major surgery; dates of admission, surgery, discharge and death; principal diagnoses; and sociodemographic patient characteristics. There were lower matching rates for other items, including source of admission, primary reason for admission, most comorbidities, colonoscopy and sigmoidoscopy. Routine data did not cover most detailed information collected in the UK IBD audit. Using routine data was much less costly than collecting designed audit data.

CONCLUSION

Although valuable for large population-based studies, and less costly than designed data, routine inpatient data are not suitable for the evaluation of individual patient care within a designed audit.

Perinatal and early life risk factors for inflammatory bowel disease

AIM: To investigate associations between perinatal risk factors and subsequent inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in children and young adults.

METHODS: Record linked abstracts of birth registrations, maternity, day case and inpatient admissions in a defined population of southern England. Investigation of 20 perinatal factors relating to the maternity or the birth: maternal age, Crohn’s disease (CD) or ulcerative colitis (UC) in the mother, maternal social class, marital status, smoking in pregnancy, ABO blood group and rhesus status, pre-eclampsia, parity, the infant’s presentation at birth, caesarean delivery, forceps delivery, sex, number of babies delivered, gestational age, birthweight, head circumference, breastfeeding and Apgar scores at one and five minutes.

RESULTS: Maternity records were present for 180 children who subsequently developed IBD. Univariate analysis showed increased risks of CD among children of mothers with CD (P = 0.011, based on two cases of CD in both mother and child) and children of mothers who smoked during pregnancy. Multivariate analysis confirmed increased risks of CD among children of mothers who smoked (odds ratio = 2.04, 95% CI = 1.06-3.92) and for older mothers aged 35+ years (4.81, 2.32-9.98). Multivariate analysis showed that there were no significant associations between CD and 17 other perinatal risk factors investigated. It also showed that, for UC, there were no significant associations with the perinatal factors studied.

CONCLUSION: This study shows an association between CD in mother and child; and elevated risks of CD in children of older mothers and of mothers who smoked.

Sudden cardiac event on a sea-going ship and recognition of a work-related accident

OBJECTIVES. Evaluation of the effect of selected work environment factors on a sea-going ship on the occurrence of a sudden cardiac event and its recognition as a work-related accident. BACKGROUND. Sudden cardiac events, myocardial infarction in particular, among crews of seagoing ships are the most frequent reasons for fatal morbid events. In more than 20% of such cases, conditions and organization of work at sea are found to be of essential importance. Problems with certification are related with the assessment of the significance and impact of specific work environment factors overlapping with classic genetic and environmental factors of diseases of atherosclerotic origin. MATERIAL AND METHODS. The analysis embraced medical documentation on the state of health and working conditions at sea concerning 30 crewmembers of Polish sea-going vessels, who had suffered from sudden cardiac events in the years 1998-2009. The impact of selected work environment factors on the legitimacy of legal recognition of the event as a work-related accident was analysed by Fisher's test and multi-factorial regression. RESULTS. The presence of classic genetic and environmental risk factors of cardiovascular events was confirmed in all persons examined. A significant effect on destabilization of the disease, deterioration of health, and the occurrence of a sudden circulation event was shown to be strictly related with isometric and dynamic effort, particularly with heat discomfort in the maritime work environment. This satisfied the legal criteria for recognition of a work-related accident in half of the cases examined. CONCLUSIONS. Isometric and dynamic effort associated with work under heat stress conditions may be regarded as a decisive causative factor for a sudden cardiac event and the recognition of a work-related accident at sea.

Hospitalized incidence and case fatality for upper gastrointestinal bleeding from 1999 to 2007: a record linkage study

BACKGROUND

Upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding is the most common emergency managed by gastroenterologists.

AIM

To establish the hospitalized incidence and case fatality for upper GI bleeding, and to determine how they are associated with factors including day of admission, hospital size, social deprivation and distance from hospital.

METHODS

Systematic record linkage of hospital in-patient and mortality data for 24 421 admissions for upper GI bleeding among 22 299 people in Wales from 1999 to 2007.

RESULTS

The hospitalized incidence of upper GI bleeding was 134 per 100 000. Case fatality was 10.0%. Incidence was stable from 1999 to 2007; case fatality fell from 11.4% in 1999-2000 to 8.6% in 2006-7. Incidence was associated significantly with social deprivation. Compared with weekday admissions, case fatality was 13% higher for weekend admissions and 41% higher for admissions on public holidays. There was little variation in case fatality according to social deprivation, hospital size or distance from hospital.

CONCLUSIONS

Incidence, but not case fatality, was associated significantly with social deprivation. The higher mortality for weekend and public holiday admissions could not be explained by measures of case mix and may indicate a possible impact of reduced staffing levels and delays to endoscopy at weekends in some hospitals.

Hospitalized prevalence and 5-year mortality for IBD: record linkage study

AIM

To establish the hospitalized prevalence of severe Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) in Wales from 1999 to 2007; and to investigate long-term mortality after hospitalization and associations with social deprivation and other socio-demographic factors.

METHODS

Record linkage of administrative inpatient and mortality data for 1467 and 1482 people hospitalised as emergencies for > or = 3 d for CD and UC, respectively. The main outcome measures were hospitalized prevalence, mortality rates and standardized mortality ratios for up to 5 years follow-up after hospitalization.

RESULTS

Hospitalized prevalence was 50.1 per 100 000 population for CD and 50.6 for UC. The hospitalized prevalence of CD was significantly higher (P < 0.05) in females (57.4) than in males (42.2), and was highest in people aged 16-29 years, but the prevalence of UC was similar in males (51.0) and females (50.1), and increased continuously with age. The hospitalized prevalence of CD was slightly higher in the most deprived areas, but there was no association between social deprivation and hospitalized prevalence of UC. Mortality was 6.8% and 14.6% after 1 and 5 years follow-up for CD, and 9.2% and 20.8% after 1 and 5 years for UC. For both CD and UC, there was little discernible association between mortality and social deprivation, distance from hospital, urban/rural residence and geography.

CONCLUSION

CD and UC have distinct demographic profiles. The higher prevalence of hospitalized CD in more deprived areas may reflect higher prevalence and higher hospital dependency.

Influence of maternal and perinatal factors on subsequent hospitalisation for asthma in children: evidence from the Oxford record linkage study

Background

There is much interest in the possibility that perinatal factors may influence the risk of disease in later life. We investigated the influence of maternal and perinatal factors on subsequent hospital admission for asthma in children.

Methods

Analysis of data from the Oxford record linkage study (ORLS) to generate a retrospective cohort of 248 612 records of births between 1970 and 1989, with follow-up to records of subsequent hospital admission for 4 017 children with asthma up to 1999.

Results

Univariate analysis showed significant associations between an increased risk of admission for asthma and later years of birth (reflecting the increase in asthma in the 1970s and 1980s), low social class, asthma in the mother, unmarried mothers, maternal smoking in pregnancy, subsequent births compared with first-born, male sex, low birth weight, short gestational age, caesarean delivery, forceps delivery and not being breastfed. Multivariate analysis, identifying each risk factor that had a significant effect independently of other risk factors, confirmed associations with maternal asthma (odds ratio (OR) 3.1, 95% confidence interval 2.7-3.6), male sex (versus female, 1.8, 1.7-2.0), low birth weight (1000-2999 g versus 3000-3999 g, 1.2, 1.1-1.3), maternal smoking (1.1, 1.0-1.3) and delivery by caesarean section (1.2; 1.0-1.3). In those first admitted with asthma under two years old, there were associations with having siblings (e.g. second child compared with first-born, OR 1.3, 1.0-1.7) and short gestational age (24-37 weeks versus 38-41 weeks, 1.6, 1.2-2.2). Multivariate analysis confined to those admitted with asthma aged six years or more, showed associations with maternal asthma (OR 3.8, 3.1-4.7), age of mother (under 25 versus 25-34 at birth, OR 1.16, 1.03-1.31; over 35 versus 25-34, OR 1.4, 1.1-1.7); high social class was protective (1 and 2, compared with 3, 0.72; 0.63-0.82). Hospital admission for asthma in people aged over six was more common in males than females (1.4; 1.2-1.5); but, by the teenage years, the sex ratio reversed and admission was more common in females than males.

Conclusion

Several maternal characteristics and perinatal factors are associated with an elevated risk of hospital admission for asthma in the child in later life.

Hospitalized prevalence and 5-year mortality for IBD: Record linkage study

AIM: To establish the hospitalized prevalence of severe Crohn’s disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) in Wales from 1999 to 2007; and to investigate long-term mortality after hospitalization and associations with social deprivation and other socio-demographic factors.

METHODS: Record linkage of administrative inpatient and mortality data for 1467 and 1482 people hospitalised as emergencies for ≥ 3 d for CD and UC, respectively. The main outcome measures were hospitalized prevalence, mortality rates and standardized mortality ratios for up to 5 years follow-up after hospitalization.

RESULTS: Hospitalized prevalence was 50.1 per 100 000 population for CD and 50.6 for UC. The hospitalized prevalence of CD was significantly higher (P < 0.05) in females (57.4) than in males (42.2), and was highest in people aged 16-29 years, but the prevalence of UC was similar in males (51.0) and females (50.1), and increased continuously with age. The hospitalized prevalence of CD was slightly higher in the most deprived areas, but there was no association between social deprivation and hospitalized prevalence of UC. Mortality was 6.8% and 14.6% after 1 and 5 years follow-up for CD, and 9.2% and 20.8% after 1 and 5 years for UC. For both CD and UC, there was little discernible association between mortality and social deprivation, distance from hospital, urban/rural residence and geography.

CONCLUSION: CD and UC have distinct demographic profiles. The higher prevalence of hospitalized CD in more deprived areas may reflect higher prevalence and higher hospital dependency.

Britain's most hazardous occupation: commercial fishing

The main objectives of this study were to investigate the causes and circumstances of all fatal work-related accidents in the UK fishing industry from 1996 to 2005, to compare fatal accident rates with those in all other British occupations and industries and in the general British workforce, and to establish long term trends in the fatal accident rate in UK fishing since 1919. Of 160 deaths from work-related accidents in the UK fishing industry from 1996 to 2005, 86 arose from incidents involving fishing vessels and 74 were from personal accidents, with a fatal accident rate of 102 per 100,000 fishermen-years. After fishermen, the next most hazardous occupations were dockers and stevedores (28 per 100,000), refuse and salvage workers (25), agricultural machinery drivers (18), steel erectors, road construction workers (both 15), roofers (13) and scaffolders (12). The fatal accident rate among fishermen was 115 times greater than in the general British workforce, while there has been little reduction in the fatal accident rate in the UK fishing industry in the last 60 years. This study shows that commercial fishing is by far the most hazardous occupation in Britain. Prevention of fatal accidents should focus on increased use of personal flotation devices, reductions in lone fishing and the use of unstable, unseaworthy and badly maintained fishing vessels.

Human and fishing vessel losses in sea accidents in the UK fishing industry from 1948 to 2008

OBJECTIVE

To investigate long-term trends in mortality rates for accidents to fishing vessels in the UK fishing industry from 1948 to 2008; to investigate the circumstances and causes of these fishing vessel accidents and trends in fishing vessel losses.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Examination of paper death inquiry files, death registers, marine accident investigative files, annual casualty and death returns.

RESULTS

Of 1039 fatalities from accidents to UK fishing vessels from 1948 to 2008, most (65%) resulted from vessels that foundered (or capsized or disappeared), followed by vessels grounding (21%), collisions (7%), and fires and explosions (5%). There was a significant increase over time of 1.04% per year in the overall fishing vessel loss rate and for vessels that foundered (5.19%), a reduction for vessels grounding (1.13%), but no trends for collisions or fires and explosions. Regarding mortality, there was a significant reduction over time for grounding (1.44%) and a non-significant reduction for vessel accidents overall, but no trends for other types of vessel accident. Mortality was highest during the winter months (for foundering and grounding), during night time (for grounding, fires and explosions), and afternoons (foundering and collisions). Since 1976, most fatalities from collisions (83%) occurred in the English Channel and North Sea, while 49% from grounding occurred off the west coast of Scotland.

CONCLUSION

The mortality rate from fishing vessel casualties in UK fishing is still very high. Fatalities in recent years have often been linked to fishing vessels that are unstable, overloaded, and unseaworthy.

Cardiovascular disease mortality in British merchant shipping and among British seafarers ashore in Britain

BACKGROUND

The objective was to investigate trends in work-related mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD) among seafarers employed in British merchant shipping from 1919 to 2005, to compare CVD mortality among British seafarers at work in British shipping - and ashore in Britain - with that in the general British population, and to investigate work-related CVD mortality in British shipping during recent years according to factors such as rank, nationality, location, and type of ship.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A longitudinal study based on examination of death inquiry files and death registers, official death returns, and information from occupational mortality decennial supplements. The main outcome measures were population-based mortality rates and standardised mortality ratios.

RESULTS

There was an increase in work-related CVD mortality throughout much of the period from 1919 to 1962, but a subsequent reduction to 2005. Work-related mortality from CVD and ischaemic heart disease (IHD) was lower among seafarers employed in British shipping than in the corresponding general population (SMRs = 0.35 to 0.46), but mortality from CVD among British seafarers ashore in Britain was often increased. An elevated risk of work-related CVD mortality was also identified among the crews of North Sea offshore ships.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows a healthy worker effect against CVD mortality among seafarers at work in British shipping, but increased risks among British seafarers ashore in Britain, which would include seafarers discharged through CVD morbidity and other illnesses. The high risks of CVD mortality among seafarers in North Sea supply ships may reflect particular work-related hazards in this sector.

Perinatal risk factors and coeliac disease in children and young adults: a record linkage study

BACKGROUND

Little is known about perinatal risk factors and coeliac disease.

AIM

To investigate the relationship between perinatal risk factors and subsequent coeliac disease among offspring.

METHODS

Record linked abstracts of birth registrations, maternity, in-patient and day case records in a defined population of southern England.

RESULTS

Using univariate analysis, coeliac disease in the child was associated with maternal coeliac disease (odds ratio = 20.6; 95% CI = 5.04-84.0; based on two cases in both mother and child) and with social class, year of birth, maternal smoking and parity. Multivariate analysis confirmed an increased risk of coeliac disease of 3.79 (95% CI = 1.85-7.79) for classes IV and V compared with I and II, an increased risk of 1.92 (1.06-3.49) for births during 1975-1979 compared with 1970-1974 and an increased risk of 1.80 (1.05-3.09) for 'subsequent' compared with 'first' births. Smoking during pregnancy was no longer associated with coeliac disease. Because numbers were small, maternal coeliac disease was excluded from the multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows increased risks of coeliac disease for manual social classes, births during the late 1970s and 'subsequent' births. Overall, perinatal risk factors seem to have a limited role in the aetiology of coeliac disease in children and young adults.

Incidence and case fatality for acute pancreatitis in England: geographical variation, social deprivation, alcohol consumption and aetiology--a record linkage study

BACKGROUND

Regional studies in the UK indicate that the incidence of acute pancreatitis increased from the 1940s to the 1990s, while case fatality fell until the 1970s but has levelled-off since.

AIMS

To establish incidence and case fatality for acute pancreatitis in England from 1998 to 2003, to study geographical variation and recent trends in incidence and to study associations with social deprivation and alcohol consumption.

METHODS

Use of national record linkage of in-patient and mortality data for 52 096 people.

RESULTS

Overall incidence was 22.4 per 100 000 population, increasing by 3.1% annually, with largest increases for women aged under 35 years (11% per year) and for men aged 35 to 45 (5.6%). Incidence was higher in northern regions than in southern regions and in areas with high social deprivation and binge drinking. Case fatality was 6.7% at 60 days, higher for alcoholic than gallstones aetiology and was associated with social deprivation and geography.

CONCLUSIONS

Acute pancreatitis is a growing problem in England, particularly among younger women. The findings indicate strongly that alcohol consumption is the main reason for recent increases in incidence, the higher incidence in socially-deprived areas and for the lack of recent improvement in prognosis.

Mortality in patients with and without colectomy admitted to hospital for ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease: record linkage studies

OBJECTIVE

To compare mortality outcomes in the three years after elective colectomy, no colectomy, and emergency colectomy among people admitted to hospital for inflammatory bowel disease, to inform whether the threshold for elective colectomy in clinical practice is appropriate.

DESIGN

Record linkage studies.

SETTING

Oxford region (1968-99) and England (1998-2003).

PARTICIPANTS

23,464 people with hospital stay for more than three days for inflammatory bowel disease, including 5480 who had colectomy.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Case fatality, relative survival, and standardised mortality ratios.

RESULTS

In the Oxford region, three year mortality was lower after elective colectomy than after either no colectomy or emergency colectomy, although this was not significant. For England, mortality three years after elective colectomy for ulcerative colitis (3.7%) and Crohn's disease (3.3%) was significantly lower than that after either admission without colectomy (13.6% and 10.1%; both P<0.001) or emergency colectomy (13.2% and 9.9%; P<0.001 for colitis and P<0.01 for Crohn's disease). Three or more months after elective colectomy, mortality was similar to that in the general population. Adjustment for comorbidity did not affect the findings.

CONCLUSIONS

In England, the clinical threshold for elective colectomy in people with inflammatory bowel disease may be too high. Further research is now required to establish the threshold criteria and optimal timing of elective surgery for people with poorly controlled inflammatory bowel disease.

Perinatal factors associated with subsequent diabetes mellitus in the child: record linkage study

AIMS

To report on associations between perinatal factors and the subsequent development of diabetes mellitus under the age of 30 years in the offspring.

METHODS

Analysis of linked hospital statistical records, comparing perinatal factors relating to the birth of 518 people admitted to hospital for diabetes with the same factors in 292 845 others, in a defined population in southern England from 1963 to 1999.

RESULTS

Diabetes mellitus was much more common in children of mothers with diabetes than in others (odds ratio 6.42; 95% confidence interval 4.18-9.86). There was no significant association with birthweight or gestational age separately. Diabetes was more common in those in the highest quintile of 'birthweight for gestational age' compared with the lowest four quintiles combined (odds ratio 1.33; 95% confidence interval 1.08-1.64), but there was no consistent gradient of increasing frequency of diabetes across the lowest four quintiles. There were no significant associations between diabetes and mothers' age, parity, social class, or smoking during pregnancy, or between babies' mode of delivery or any other perinatal factors investigated. All results were similar when the analysis was confined to diabetes in people aged < 15 years.

CONCLUSIONS

We found a strong association between diabetes in the child-mainly, if not entirely Type 1 diabetes-and maternal diabetes. Diabetes was slightly more common in the heaviest quintile of birthweight for gestational age than in other quintiles. There were no significant associations between diabetes and the other perinatal factors studied.

Genetic haplotypes of Th-2 immune signalling link allergy to enhanced protection to parasitic worms

Parasitic worm infection, allergy and asthma involve increased IgE production, eosinophil activity, mucus secretion and smooth muscle reactivity, effected through Th-2 immune signalling. These pathological features of allergic disorder, common in developed countries, appear to be protective features in resistance to parasitic worm infections prevalent in many developing countries. We investigated how genetic variation in the Th-2 signalling transduction molecule STAT6 relates to these clinical disorders, using immune phenotyping by serum IgE levels and haplotyping nine STAT6 genetic variants in a rural Chinese population, where Ascaris infection is prevalent, and an urban UK population where Ascaris is largely unknown but asthma and allergy are prevalent. We show for the first time that STAT6 haplotypes relate clearly to IgE levels, allergy and worm burden. The haplotypes segregated into two groups: those with raised IgE/low worm burden tended to have increased risk of allergic disorder, whereas low IgE/high worm burden tended to have a reduced risk of allergies. By estimating the mean worm burden for each haplotype in China and the relative risk of asthma for the matching haplotype in the UK, we draw a cross-population comparison and show a negative correlation between worm burden and expected risk of asthma. These data imply that the origin of common up-regulating variants of Th-2 signalling, involving STAT6, promotes asthma and allergy in developed countries, whereas in developing countries it protects against parasitic worm infections. Selective evolutionary mechanisms, driven by parasitic worm infection, may underlie the genetic contribution to risk of allergy and asthma in humans.

Mortality from disease among fishermen employed in the UK fishing industry from 1948 to 2005

BACKGROUND

Although commercial fishing has become established as the most hazardous occupation in Western countries, relatively little has been reported on mortality from disease among fishermen.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the causes of work-related mortality from disease in the UK fishing industry from 1948 to 2005, trends in mortality over time and how it varies according to the sector of the fishing industry, to investigate non-work related mortality among fishermen ashore, and to compare it with that in other populations.

METHODS

Examination of paper death inquiry files, death registers and death returns, as well as GIS mapping for a defined population of 1.45 million fishermen-years at risk.

RESULTS

From 1948 to 2005, there were a total of 449 work-related deaths from disease identified in the UK fishing industry, with a corresponding mortality rate of 30.9 per 100,000. The mortality rate increased from about 35 per 100,000 in the late 1940s to 60 in the early/mid 1970s but fell sharply to about 10 by the late 1970s. Most of the deaths were caused by ischaemic heart disease followed by other circulatory diseases, respiratory and gastrointestinal diseases. The highest mortality rates were identified for fishermen employed on board distant water trawlers, particularly those operating in Arctic waters.

CONCLUSIONS

The study shows that fishermen in distant water trawlers, particularly in Arctic conditions, have the highest risks of mortality from disease. The high risks presumably reflect lifestyle risk factors as well as extremely hazardous and stressful working and sleeping conditions.