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Severson JP, Johnson HE, Arthur SM, Leacock WB, Suitor MJ. Spring phenology drives range shifts in a migratory Arctic ungulate with key implications for the future. Glob Chang Biol 2021; 27:4546-4563. [PMID: 33993595 PMCID: PMC8456794 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15682] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2021] [Accepted: 04/09/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Annual variation in phenology can have profound effects on the behavior of animals. As climate change advances spring phenology in ecosystems around the globe, it is becoming increasingly important to understand how animals respond to variation in the timing of seasonal events and how their responses may shift in the future. We investigated the influence of spring phenology on the behavior of migratory, barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus), a species that has evolved to cope with short Arctic summers. Specifically, we examined the effect of spring snow melt and vegetation growth on the current and potential future space-use patterns of the Porcupine Caribou Herd (PCH), which exhibits large, inter-annual shifts in their calving and post-calving distributions across the U.S.-Canadian border. We quantified PCH selection for snow melt and vegetation phenology using machine learning models, determined how selection resulted in annual shifts in space-use, and then projected future distributions based on climate-driven phenology models. Caribou exhibited strong, scale-dependent selection for both snow melt and vegetation growth. During the calving season, caribou selected areas at finer scales where the snow had melted and vegetation was greening, but within broader landscapes that were still brown or snow covered. During the post-calving season, they selected vegetation with intermediate biomass expected to have high forage quality. Annual variation in spring phenology predicted major shifts in PCH space-use. In years with early spring phenology, PCH predominately used habitat in Alaska, while in years with late phenology, they spent more time in Yukon. Future climate conditions were projected to advance spring phenology, shifting PCH calving and post-calving distributions further west into Alaska. Our results demonstrate that caribou selection for habitat in specific phenological stages drive dramatic shifts in annual space-use patterns, and will likely affect future distributions, underscoring the importance of maintaining sufficient suitable habitat to allow for behavioral plasticity.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Stephen M. Arthur
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife ServiceArctic National Wildlife RefugeFairbanksAKUSA
| | - William B. Leacock
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife ServiceArctic National Wildlife RefugeFairbanksAKUSA
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Affiliation(s)
- Stephen M. Arthur
- Alaska Department of Fish and Game, 1300 College Road, Fairbanks, AK 99701-1551, USA
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Borg BL, Arthur SM, Bromen NA, Cassidy KA, McIntyre R, Smith DW, Prugh LR. Implications of Harvest on the Boundaries of Protected Areas for Large Carnivore Viewing Opportunities. PLoS One 2016; 11:e0153808. [PMID: 27124729 PMCID: PMC4849653 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0153808] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/16/2015] [Accepted: 04/04/2016] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
The desire to see free ranging large carnivores in their natural habitat is a driver of tourism in protected areas around the globe. However, large carnivores are wide-ranging and subject to human-caused mortality outside protected area boundaries. The impact of harvest (trapping or hunting) on wildlife viewing opportunities has been the subject of intense debate and speculation, but quantitative analyses have been lacking. We examined the effect of legal harvest of wolves (Canis lupus) along the boundaries of two North American National Parks, Denali (DNPP) and Yellowstone (YNP), on wolf viewing opportunities within the parks during peak tourist season. We used data on wolf sightings, pack sizes, den site locations, and harvest adjacent to DNPP from 1997–2013 and YNP from 2008–2013 to evaluate the relationship between harvest and wolf viewing opportunities. Although sightings were largely driven by wolf population size and proximity of den sites to roads, sightings in both parks were significantly reduced by harvest. Sightings in YNP increased by 45% following years with no harvest of a wolf from a pack, and sightings in DNPP were more than twice as likely during a period with a harvest buffer zone than in years without the buffer. These findings show that harvest of wolves adjacent to protected areas can reduce sightings within those areas despite minimal impacts on the size of protected wolf populations. Consumptive use of carnivores adjacent to protected areas may therefore reduce their potential for non-consumptive use, and these tradeoffs should be considered when developing regional wildlife management policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bridget L. Borg
- University of Alaska Fairbanks, Institute of Arctic Biology, 323 Murie Building, Fairbanks, Alaska 99775, United States of America
- National Park Service, Denali National Park and Preserve, P.O. Box 9, Denali Park, Alaska 99755, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Stephen M. Arthur
- National Park Service, Denali National Park and Preserve, P.O. Box 9, Denali Park, Alaska 99755, United States of America
| | - Nicholas A. Bromen
- National Park Service, Denali National Park and Preserve, P.O. Box 9, Denali Park, Alaska 99755, United States of America
| | - Kira A. Cassidy
- National Park Service, Yellowstone Center for Resources, Wolf Project, P.O. Box 168, Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming 82190, United States of America
| | - Rick McIntyre
- National Park Service, Yellowstone Center for Resources, Wolf Project, P.O. Box 168, Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming 82190, United States of America
| | - Douglas W. Smith
- National Park Service, Yellowstone Center for Resources, Wolf Project, P.O. Box 168, Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming 82190, United States of America
| | - Laura R. Prugh
- University of Alaska Fairbanks, Institute of Arctic Biology, 323 Murie Building, Fairbanks, Alaska 99775, United States of America
- University of Washington, School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, Box 352100, Seattle Washington 98195, United States of America
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Nicholson KL, Arthur SM, Horne JS, Garton EO, Del Vecchio PA. Modeling Caribou Movements: Seasonal Ranges and Migration Routes of the Central Arctic Herd. PLoS One 2016; 11:e0150333. [PMID: 27045587 PMCID: PMC4821536 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0150333] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2015] [Accepted: 12/15/2015] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Migration is an important component of the life history of many animals, but persistence of large-scale terrestrial migrations is being challenged by environmental changes that fragment habitats and create obstacles to animal movements. In northern Alaska, the Central Arctic herd (CAH) of barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) is known to migrate over large distances, but the herd's seasonal distributions and migratory movements are not well documented. From 2003-2007, we used GPS radio-collars to determine seasonal ranges and migration routes of 54 female caribou from the CAH. We calculated Brownian bridges to model fall and spring migrations for each year and used the mean of these over all 4 years to identify areas that were used repeatedly. Annual estimates of sizes of seasonal ranges determined by 90% fixed kernel utilization distributions were similar between summer and winter (X̅ = 27,929 SE = 1,064 and X̅ = 26,585 SE = 4912 km2, respectively). Overlap between consecutive summer and winter ranges varied from 3.3-18.3%. Percent overlap between summer ranges used during consecutive years (X̅ = 62.4% SE = 3.7%) was higher than for winter ranges (X̅ = 42.8% SE = 5.9%). Caribou used multiple migration routes each year, but some areas were used by caribou during all years, suggesting that these areas should be managed to allow for continued utilization by caribou. Restoring migration routes after they have been disturbed or fragmented is challenging. However, prior knowledge of movements and threats may facilitate maintenance of migratory paths and seasonal ranges necessary for long-term persistence of migratory species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kerry L. Nicholson
- Department of Fish and Wildlife Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho, United States of America
- Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Division of Wildlife Conservation, Fairbanks, Alaska, United States of America
| | - Stephen M. Arthur
- Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Division of Wildlife Conservation, Fairbanks, Alaska, United States of America
| | - Jon S. Horne
- Department of Fish and Wildlife Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho, United States of America
| | - Edward O. Garton
- Department of Fish and Wildlife Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho, United States of America
| | - Patricia A. Del Vecchio
- Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Division of Wildlife Conservation, Fairbanks, Alaska, United States of America
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Affiliation(s)
- Laura R. Prugh
- Inst. of Arctic Biology, Univ. of Alaska Fairbanks; Fairbanks AK 99775 USA
| | - Stephen M. Arthur
- Dept of Wildlife Conservation; Alaska Dept of Fish and Game; 1300 College Rd Fairbanks AK 99701 USA
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Gustine DD, Barboza PS, Lawler JP, Arthur SM, Shults BS, Persons K, Adams LG. Characteristics of foraging sites and protein status in wintering muskoxen: insights from isotopes of nitrogen. OIKOS 2011. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0706.2011.19215.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
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Abstract
Reliable population estimates are necessary for effective conservation and management, and faecal genotyping has been used successfully to estimate the population size of several elusive mammalian species. Information such as changes in population size over time and survival rates, however, are often more useful for conservation biology than single population estimates. We evaluated the use of faecal genotyping as a tool for monitoring long-term population dynamics, using coyotes (Canis latrans) in the Alaska Range as a case study. We obtained 544 genotypes from 56 coyotes over 3 years (2000-2002). Tissue samples from all 15 radio-collared coyotes in our study area had > or = 1 matching faecal genotypes. We used flexible maximum-likelihood models to study coyote population dynamics, and we tested model performance against radio telemetry data. The staple prey of coyotes, snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), dramatically declined during this study, and the coyote population declined nearly two-fold with a 1(1/2)-year time lag. Survival rates declined the year after hares crashed but recovered the following year. We conclude that long-term monitoring of elusive species using faecal genotyping is feasible and can provide data that are useful for wildlife conservation and management. We highlight some drawbacks of standard open-population models, such as low precision and the requirement of discrete sampling intervals, and we suggest that the development of open models designed for continuously collected data would enhance the utility of faecal genotyping as a monitoring tool.
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Affiliation(s)
- L R Prugh
- Zoology Department, University of British Columbia, 6270 University Boulevard, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4 Canada.
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Arthur SM, Whitten KR, Mauer FJ, Cooley D. Modeling the decline of the Porcupine Caribou Herd, 1989-1998: the importance of survival vs. recruitment. Ran 2003. [DOI: 10.7557/2.23.5.1693] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/15/2022]
Abstract
The Porcupine caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) herd increased from approximately 100 000 animals during the 1970s to 178 000 in 1989, then declined to 129 000 by 1998. Our objective was to model the dynamics of this herd and investigate the potential that lower calf recruitment, as was observed during 1991-1993, produced the observed population changes. A deterministic model was prepared using estimates of birth and survival rates that reproduced the pattern of population growth from 1971-1989. Then, parameters were changed to simulate effects of lower calf recruitment and adult survival. Reducing recruitment for 3 years caused an immediate reduction in population size, but the population began to recover in 5-6 years. Even a dramatic temporary reduction in recruitment did not explain the continuing decline after 1995. In contrast, a slight but persistent reduction in adult survival caused a decline that closely followed the observed pattern. This suggests that survival of adults, and perhaps calves, has declined since the late 1980s.
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Jacoby ME, Hilderbrand GV, Servheen C, Schwartz CC, Arthur SM, Hanley TA, Robbins CT, Michener R. Trophic Relations of Brown and Black Bears in Several Western North American Ecosystems. J Wildl Manage 1999. [DOI: 10.2307/3802806] [Citation(s) in RCA: 136] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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Hilderbrand GV, Schwartz CC, Robbins CT, Jacoby ME, Hanley TA, Arthur SM, Servheen C. The importance of meat, particularly salmon, to body size, population productivity, and conservation of North American brown bears. CAN J ZOOL 1999. [DOI: 10.1139/z98-195] [Citation(s) in RCA: 296] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
We hypothesized that the relative availability of meat, indicated by contribution to the diet, would be positively related to body size and population productivity of North American brown, or grizzly, bears (Ursus arctos). Dietary contributions of plant matter and meat derived from both terrestrial and marine sources were quantified by stable-isotope analysis (δ13C and δ15N) of hair samples from 13 brown bear populations. Estimates of adult female body mass, mean litter size, and population density were obtained from two field studies of ours and from other published reports. The populations ranged from largely vegetarian to largely carnivorous, and food resources ranged from mostly terrestrial to mostly marine (salmon, Oncorhynchus spp.). The proportion of meat in the diet was significantly correlated with mean adult female body mass (r = 0.87, P < 0.01), mean litter size (r = 0.72, P < 0.01), and mean population density (r = 0.91, P < 0.01). Salmon was the most important source of meat for the largest, most carnivorous bears and most productive populations. We conclude that availability of meat, particularly salmon, greatly influences habitat quality for brown bears at both the individual level and the population level.
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