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Walker AP, De Kauwe MG, Bastos A, Belmecheri S, Georgiou K, Keeling RF, McMahon SM, Medlyn BE, Moore DJP, Norby RJ, Zaehle S, Anderson-Teixeira KJ, Battipaglia G, Brienen RJW, Cabugao KG, Cailleret M, Campbell E, Canadell JG, Ciais P, Craig ME, Ellsworth DS, Farquhar GD, Fatichi S, Fisher JB, Frank DC, Graven H, Gu L, Haverd V, Heilman K, Heimann M, Hungate BA, Iversen CM, Joos F, Jiang M, Keenan TF, Knauer J, Körner C, Leshyk VO, Leuzinger S, Liu Y, MacBean N, Malhi Y, McVicar TR, Penuelas J, Pongratz J, Powell AS, Riutta T, Sabot MEB, Schleucher J, Sitch S, Smith WK, Sulman B, Taylor B, Terrer C, Torn MS, Treseder KK, Trugman AT, Trumbore SE, van Mantgem PJ, Voelker SL, Whelan ME, Zuidema PA. Integrating the evidence for a terrestrial carbon sink caused by increasing atmospheric CO 2. New Phytol 2021; 229:2413-2445. [PMID: 32789857 DOI: 10.1111/nph.16866] [Citation(s) in RCA: 119] [Impact Index Per Article: 39.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/17/2020] [Accepted: 07/06/2020] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2 ]) is increasing, which increases leaf-scale photosynthesis and intrinsic water-use efficiency. These direct responses have the potential to increase plant growth, vegetation biomass, and soil organic matter; transferring carbon from the atmosphere into terrestrial ecosystems (a carbon sink). A substantial global terrestrial carbon sink would slow the rate of [CO2 ] increase and thus climate change. However, ecosystem CO2 responses are complex or confounded by concurrent changes in multiple agents of global change and evidence for a [CO2 ]-driven terrestrial carbon sink can appear contradictory. Here we synthesize theory and broad, multidisciplinary evidence for the effects of increasing [CO2 ] (iCO2 ) on the global terrestrial carbon sink. Evidence suggests a substantial increase in global photosynthesis since pre-industrial times. Established theory, supported by experiments, indicates that iCO2 is likely responsible for about half of the increase. Global carbon budgeting, atmospheric data, and forest inventories indicate a historical carbon sink, and these apparent iCO2 responses are high in comparison to experiments and predictions from theory. Plant mortality and soil carbon iCO2 responses are highly uncertain. In conclusion, a range of evidence supports a positive terrestrial carbon sink in response to iCO2 , albeit with uncertain magnitude and strong suggestion of a role for additional agents of global change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anthony P Walker
- Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831, USA
| | - Martin G De Kauwe
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia
- Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia
- Evolution and Ecology Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia
| | - Ana Bastos
- Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Luisenstr. 37, Munich, 80333, Germany
| | - Soumaya Belmecheri
- Laboratory of Tree Ring Research, University of Arizona, 1215 E Lowell St, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA
| | - Katerina Georgiou
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA
| | - Ralph F Keeling
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, La Jolla, CA, 92093, USA
| | - Sean M McMahon
- Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, Edgewater, MD, 21037, USA
| | - Belinda E Medlyn
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW, 2751, Australia
| | - David J P Moore
- School of Natural Resources and the Environment, 1064 East Lowell Street, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA
| | - Richard J Norby
- Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831, USA
| | - Sönke Zaehle
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Hans-Knöll-Str. 10, Jena, 07745, Germany
| | - Kristina J Anderson-Teixeira
- Conservation Ecology Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, MRC 5535, Front Royal, VA, 22630, USA
- Center for Tropical Forest Science-Forest Global Earth Observatory, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Panama City, Panama
| | - Giovanna Battipaglia
- Department of Environmental, Biological and Pharmaceutical Sciences and Technologies, Università della Campania, Caserta, 81100, Italy
| | | | - Kristine G Cabugao
- Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831, USA
| | - Maxime Cailleret
- INRAE, UMR RECOVER, Aix-Marseille Université, 3275 route de Cézanne, Aix-en-Provence Cedex 5, 13182, France
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Elliott Campbell
- Department of Geography, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, 93106, USA
| | - Josep G Canadell
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, F-91191, France
| | - Matthew E Craig
- Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831, USA
| | - David S Ellsworth
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW, 2751, Australia
| | - Graham D Farquhar
- Plant Sciences, Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia
| | - Simone Fatichi
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore, 1 Engineering Drive 2, Singapore, 117576, Singapore
- Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, Stefano-Franscini Platz 5, Zurich, 8093, Switzerland
| | - Joshua B Fisher
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Dr., Pasadena, CA, 91109, USA
| | - David C Frank
- Laboratory of Tree Ring Research, University of Arizona, 1215 E Lowell St, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA
| | - Heather Graven
- Department of Physics, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London, SW7 2AZ, UK
| | - Lianhong Gu
- Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831, USA
| | - Vanessa Haverd
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia
| | - Kelly Heilman
- Laboratory of Tree Ring Research, University of Arizona, 1215 E Lowell St, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA
| | - Martin Heimann
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Hans-Knöll-Str. 10, Jena, 07745, Germany
| | - Bruce A Hungate
- Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA
| | - Colleen M Iversen
- Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831, USA
| | - Fortunat Joos
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Sidlerstr. 5, Bern, CH-3012, Switzerland
| | - Mingkai Jiang
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW, 2751, Australia
| | - Trevor F Keenan
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, UC Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA
- Earth and Environmental Sciences Area, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab., Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA
| | - Jürgen Knauer
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia
| | - Christian Körner
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Botany, University of Basel, Basel, 4056, Switzerland
| | - Victor O Leshyk
- Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA
| | - Sebastian Leuzinger
- School of Science, Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, 1142, New Zealand
| | - Yao Liu
- Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831, USA
| | - Natasha MacBean
- Department of Geography, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, 47405, USA
| | - Yadvinder Malhi
- School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK
| | - Tim R McVicar
- CSIRO Land and Water, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, 142 Mills Rd, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia
| | - Josep Penuelas
- CSIC, Global Ecology CREAF-CSIC-UAB, Bellaterra, Barcelona, Catalonia, 08193, Spain
- CREAF, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona, Catalonia, 08193, Spain
| | - Julia Pongratz
- Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Luisenstr. 37, Munich, 80333, Germany
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstr. 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
| | - A Shafer Powell
- Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831, USA
| | - Terhi Riutta
- School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK
| | - Manon E B Sabot
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia
- Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia
- Evolution and Ecology Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia
| | - Juergen Schleucher
- Department of Medical Biochemistry & Biophysics, Umeå University, Umea, 901 87, Sweden
| | - Stephen Sitch
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, Laver Building, EX4 4QF, UK
| | - William K Smith
- School of Natural Resources and the Environment, 1064 East Lowell Street, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA
| | - Benjamin Sulman
- Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831, USA
| | - Benton Taylor
- Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, Edgewater, MD, 21037, USA
| | - César Terrer
- Physical and Life Sciences Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, 94550, USA
| | - Margaret S Torn
- Earth and Environmental Sciences Area, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab., Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA
| | - Kathleen K Treseder
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, 92697, USA
| | - Anna T Trugman
- Department of Geography, 1832 Ellison Hall, Santa Barbara, CA, 93016, USA
| | - Susan E Trumbore
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Hans-Knöll-Str. 10, Jena, 07745, Germany
| | | | - Steve L Voelker
- Department of Environmental and Forest Biology, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY, 13210, USA
| | - Mary E Whelan
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, 14 College Farm Road, New Brunswick, NJ, 08901, USA
| | - Pieter A Zuidema
- Forest Ecology and Forest Management group, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, Wageningen, 6700 AA, the Netherlands
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