Time trends in opioid use for patients undergoing hip fracture surgery in 1997-2018: A Danish population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Although opioids are a mainstay for perioperative pain management in hip fracture patients, no studies have described changes in opioid use over the last two decades. The aim of this study was to describe time trends in opioid use in a population-based cohort of patients undergoing a first-time hip fracture surgery during 1997-2018.

METHODS

Opioid-naïve hip fracture patients >55 years old were identified in Danish medical databases (n = 115,962). By 2-year calendar periods, we calculated prevalence rates (PR) of opioid use in the four quarters after surgery (Q1-Q4). Corresponding prevalence rate ratios (PRR) with 1997-1998 as a reference were estimated with 95% confidence intervals. Further, we calculated the median morphine milligram equivalents (MME) for each quarter.

RESULTS

For Q1, the PR of opioid use increased from 29% in 1997-1998 to 78% in 2017-2018 corresponding to a PRR of 2.7 (2.6-2.8). For Q4, the PR was 15% in 1997-1998, peaked in 2003-2004 and then decreased, but stayed high at 13% in 2017-2018. The median MME did not increase when comparing 2017-2018 with 1997-1998, irrespective of the quarter. Tramadol was most frequently used in 1997-1998 shifting to oxycodone in 2017-2018.

CONCLUSION

The PRs of opioid use in Q1 after surgery increased substantially from 1997 to 2018, but this did not translate into increased opioid use up to 1 year after hip fracture surgery or higher dosage. Our findings underline the importance of sustained focus on opioid tapering, dosage and use of opioids with the lowest potential for addiction and other adverse events.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT

Overall, opioid use in Q1 after hip fracture surgery increased 2.7 times from 1997 to 2018, but the doses and opioid use up to 1 year after surgery remained stable. Compared to elderly, younger patients were more likely to use opioid in Q1, while the tendency was opposite in Q2-Q4. The most used opioid type changed from tramadol to oxycodone. Our findings underline the importance of personalized opioid tapering and doses, and use of opioids with the lowest potential for addiction and other adverse events.

Incidence rate of venous thrombosis in women switching combined oral contraceptives: a cohort study

Background

The incidence rate of venous thrombosis (VT) in women switching combined oral contraceptives (COCs) is unknown.

Objectives

We hypothesize that women switching COCs may have a similar increased incidence rate of VT as women who start COCs. Switching means starting with a new COC, which may biologically approximate starting.

Methods

We conducted a cohort study with data from the Netherlands and Denmark. First, we identified starters who were defined as women who did not use COCs in the 2 years prior to the start of their first COC prescription within the study period. Switchers were a subset of COC starters who redeemed a COC formulation different from their initial COC during follow-up but not longer than 12 months after starting. We estimated incidence rate ratios (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR]) of VT with 95% CIs among COC switchers as compared with COC starters using Poisson regression adjusted for age, COC progestogen generation, and preexisting obesity.

Results

In both countries, we found an increased risk of VT among switchers as compared with starters during the first 3 months of the follow-up (aIRR = 1.77; 95% CI, 1.22-2.56 in the Netherlands and aIRR = 1.50; 95% CI, 1.04-2.16 in Denmark).

Conclusion

Switchers, particularly in the first 3 months after switching, may experience a renewed starter effect thereby increasing the risk of VT.

Risk of Bleeding and Venous Thromboembolism after Colorectal Cancer Surgery in Patients with and without Type 2 Diabetes: A Danish Cohort Study

Background  Bleeding and venous thromboembolism (VTE) are adverse outcomes after colorectal cancer (CRC) surgery. Type 2 diabetes (T2D) clusters with bleeding and VTE risk factors. We examined the bleeding and VTE risk in patients with T2D undergoing CRC surgery and the prognosis after these adverse outcomes. Methods  We conducted a prognostic population-based cohort study of 48,295 patients with and without T2D undergoing surgery for incident CRC during 2005 to 2019. Patients with T2D were diagnosed in a hospital setting or had redeemed a glucose-lowering drug prescription; the remaining cohort was patients without diabetes. We estimated the 30-day and 1-year risks of bleeding and VTE and used a Fine-Gray model to compute age-, sex-, and calendar year-adjusted subdistribution hazard ratios (SHRs). The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate 1-year mortality after bleeding or VTE. Results  Within 30 days after CRC surgery, the risk of bleeding was 2.7% in patients with T2D and 2.0% in patients without diabetes (SHR: 1.30 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.10-1.53]). For VTE, the 30-day risks were 0.6% for patients with T2D and 0.6% for patients without diabetes (SHR: 1.01 [95% CI: 0.71-1.42]). The SHRs for bleeding and VTE within 1 year after CRC surgery were similar. The 1-year mortality was 26.0% versus 24.9% in the bleeding cohort and 25.8% versus 27.5% in the VTE cohort for patients with T2D versus without diabetes, respectively. Conclusion  Although absolute risks were low, patients with T2D have an increased risk of bleeding but not VTE after CRC surgery.

Burden of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Attributable to Tuberculosis: A Microsimulation Study

Tuberculosis (TB) is a risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but COPD is also a predictor of TB. The excess life-years lost to COPD caused by TB can potentially be saved by screening for and treating TB infection. We examined the number of life-years that could be saved by preventing TB and TB-attributable COPD. We compared the observed (no intervention) and counterfactual microsimulation models constructed from observed rates in the Danish National Patient Registry (covering all Danish hospitals between 1995 and 2014). In the Danish population of TB and COPD-naive individuals (n = 5,206,922), 27,783 persons (0.5%) developed TB. Among those who developed TB, 14,438 (52.0%) developed TB with COPD. Preventing TB saved 186,469 life-years overall. The excess number of life-years lost to TB alone was 7.07 years per person, and the additional number of life-years lost among persons who developed COPD after TB was 4.86 years per person. The life-years lost to TB-associated COPD are substantial, even in regions where TB can be expected to be identified and treated promptly. Prevention of TB could prevent a substantial amount of COPD-related morbidity; the benefit of screening and treatment for TB infection is underestimated by considering morbidity from TB alone.

Type 2 diabetes, obesity, and risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes and obesity may be inversely associated with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), but the evidence is controversial.

METHODS

Using Danish, nationwide registries (1980-2016), we identified patients with a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes (N = 295,653) and patients with a diagnosis of obesity (N = 312,108). Patients were matched (1:3) to persons from the general population on birth year and sex. We computed incidence rates and Cox regression derived hazard ratios (HRs) of a diagnosis of ALS. In multivariable analyses, HRs were controlled for sex, birth year, calendar year, and comorbidities.

RESULTS

We observed 168 incident cases of ALS (0.7 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.6-0.8] per 10,000 person-years) among patients with type 2 diabetes and 859 incident cases of ALS (0.9 [95% CI: 0.9-1.0] per 10,000 person-years) among matched comparators. The adjusted HR was 0.87 (95% CI: 0.72-1.04). The association was present among men (adjusted HR: 0.78 [95% CI: 0.62-0.99]) but not women (adjusted HR: 1.03 [95% CI: 0.78-1.37]), and among those aged ≥60 years (adjusted HR: 0.75 [95% CI: 0.59-0.96]) but not younger. We observed 111 ALS events (0.4 [95% CI: 0.4-0.5] per 10,000 person-years) among obesity patients and 431 ALS events (0.5 [95% CI: 0.5-0.6] per 10,000 person-years) among comparators. The adjusted HR was 0.88 (95% CI: 0.70-1.11).

CONCLUSIONS

Diagnoses of type 2 diabetes and obesity were associated with a reduced rate of ALS compared with general population comparators, particularly among men and patients aged 60 years or above. However, absolute rate differences were small.

Prenatal exposure to pregabalin, birth outcomes and neurodevelopment - a population-based cohort study in four Nordic countries

INTRODUCTION

Pregabalin is an antiepileptic drug frequently prescribed to pregnant women. Risks of adverse birth and postnatal neurodevelopmental outcomes following prenatal exposure to pregabalin are uncertain.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between prenatal exposure to pregabalin and the risks of adverse birth and postnatal neurodevelopmental outcomes.

METHODS

This study was conducted using population-based registries in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden (2005-2016). We compared pregabalin exposure against no exposure to antiepileptics and against active comparators lamotrigine and duloxetine. We obtained pooled propensity score-adjusted estimates of association using fixed-effect and Mantel-Haenszel (MH) meta-analyses.

RESULTS

The total number of pregabalin-exposed births was 325/666,139 (0.05%) in Denmark, 965/643,088 (0.15%) in Finland, 307/657,451 (0.05%) in Norway, and 1275/1,152,002 (0.11%) in Sweden. The adjusted prevalence ratios (aPRs) with 95% confidence interval (CI) following pregabalin exposure versus no exposure were 1.14 (0.98-1.34) for major congenital malformations and 1.72 (1.02-2.91) for stillbirth, which attenuated to 1.25 (0.74-2.11) in MH meta-analysis. For the remaining birth outcomes, the aPRs were close to or attenuated toward unity in analyses using active comparators. Adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI) contrasting prenatal pregabalin exposure versus no exposure were 1.29 (1.03-1.63) for ADHD and attenuated when using active comparators, 0.98 (0.67-1.42) for autism spectrum disorders, and 1.00 (0.78-1.29) for intellectual disability.

CONCLUSIONS

Prenatal exposure to pregabalin was not associated with low birth weight, preterm birth, small for gestational age, low Apgar score, microcephaly, autism spectrum disorders, or intellectual disability. On the basis of the upper value of the 95% confidence interval, increased risks greater than 1.8 were unlikely for any major congenital malformation and ADHD. For stillbirth and most groups of specific major congenital malformations, the estimates attenuated in MH meta-analysis.

Risk of Parkinson Disease and Secondary Parkinsonism in Myocardial Infarction Survivors

Background

In addition to primary neurodegenerative processes, vascular disorders, such as stroke, can lead to parkinsonism. However, some cardiovascular risk factors, such as smoking and elevated cholesterol levels, are associated with reduced risk of Parkinson disease. We examined the risk of Parkinson disease and secondary parkinsonism in 1‐year survivors of myocardial infarction (MI).

Methods and Results

We conducted a nationwide population‐based matched cohort study using Danish medical registries from 1995 to 2016. We identified all patients with a first‐time MI diagnosis and sampled a sex‐, age‐, and calendar year–matched general population comparison cohort without MI. Cox regression analysis was used to compute adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for Parkinson disease and secondary parkinsonism, controlled for matching factors and adjusted for relevant comorbidities and socioeconomic factors. We identified 181 994 patients with MI and 909 970 matched comparison cohort members (median age, 71 years; 62% men). After 21 years of follow‐up, the cumulative incidence was 0.9% for Parkinson disease and 0.1% for secondary parkinsonism in the MI cohort. Compared with the general population cohort, MI was associated with a decreased risk of Parkinson disease (aHR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.73–0.87) and secondary parkinsonism (aHR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.54–0.94).

Conclusions

MI was associated with a 20% decreased risk of Parkinson disease and 28% decreased risk of secondary parkinsonism. Reduced risk may reflect an inverse relationship between cardiovascular risk factors and Parkinson disease.

Constipation and risk of cardiovascular diseases: a Danish population-based matched cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To assess the risks of myocardial infarction, stroke, peripheral artery disease, venous thromboembolism, atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter and heart failure in patients with constipation compared with a general population cohort.

DESIGN

Population-based matched cohort study.

SETTING

All Danish hospitals and hospital outpatient clinics from 2004 to 2013.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with a constipation diagnosis matched on age, sex and calendar year to 10 individuals without constipation from the general population.

MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES

Comorbidity-adjusted and medication-adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for cardiovascular outcomes based on Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

83 239 patients with constipation were matched to 832 384 individuals without constipation. The median age at constipation diagnosis was 46.5% and 41% were men. Constipation was strongly associated with venous thromboembolism (aHR 2.04, 95% CI 1.89 to 2.20), especially splanchnic venous thrombosis (4.23, 95% CI 2.45 to 7.31). Constipation was also associated with arterial events, including myocardial infarction (1.24, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.35), ischaemic stroke (1.50, 95% CI 1.41 to 1.60), haemorrhagic stroke (1.46, 95% CI 1.26 to 1.69), peripheral artery disease (1.34, 95% CI 1.20 to 1.50), atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter (1.27, 95% CI 1.20 to 1.34) and heart failure (1.52, 95% CI 1.42 to 1.62). The associations were strongest during the first year after the constipation diagnosis and strengthened with an increased number of laxative prescriptions.

CONCLUSIONS

Constipation was associated with an increased risk of several cardiovascular diseases, in particular venous thromboembolism.

Comorbidity and risk of venous thromboembolism after hospitalization for first-time myocardial infarction: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Myocardial infarction (MI) is a risk factor for venous thromboembolism (VTE). Although comorbidities affect MI prognosis, it is unclear whether they affect VTE risk after MI.

OBJECTIVES

We examined the impact of comorbidity on VTE risk after MI.

METHODS

We used nationwide population-based registries to identify first-time hospitalizations for MI and subsequent occurrence of VTE in Denmark (1995-2013). We included a comparison cohort from the general population matched 5:1 with MI patients by sex, age, and comorbidities. We computed 30-day and 1- to 12-month cumulative risks, rates, and hazard ratios of VTE. We also assessed the interaction between MI and comorbidity, defined as excess VTE risk in patients with both MI and comorbidity, by computing interaction contrasts and attributable fractions relating to the interaction.

RESULTS

Thirty-day and 1- to 12-month VTE risks were 0.6% and 0.5% in the MI cohort (n = 160 338) and 0.03% and 0.3% in the comparison cohort (n = 792 384). The 30-day hazard ratio for VTE in the MI cohort was 23 (95% confidence interval, 20-27), which decreased during 1-year follow-up. Thirty days after MI, interactions between MI and comorbidity accounted for 16% and 39% of VTE rates in MI patients with low-to-moderate and high comorbidity, respectively. The interactions were driven primarily by hemiplegia and cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Thirty-day VTE risk was substantially increased after MI compared with the general population. Although the absolute VTE risk was low, comorbidity substantially increased this risk, especially hemiplegia and cancer. VTE prophylaxis might be indicated in such high-risk patients but warrants further investigation.

Combined hormonal contraceptive use in Europe before and after the European Commission mandated changes in product information

Objectives

We investigated combined hormonal contraceptives (CHC) prescribing patterns (focusing on combined oral contraceptives; COC) in three countries (Netherlands, Denmark, United Kingdom) in a time period preceding and in a time period following the European Commission's decision to update product information, and we estimated changes in incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) between the two periods.

Study design

We conducted a drug utilization analysis and a cohort study using routinely collected data. We calculated number, proportion and incidence rate of new users, switchers, and stoppers of COC in both time periods. VTE incidence was calculated in new users of COC and in all women aged 18–49 years.

Results

In all countries, the largest proportion (> 75%) of new users used COC containing levonorgestrel, norethisterone, or norgestimate, (i.e., indicated by European Medicines Agency (EMA) as the safest preparations) in both time periods. Switching did not demonstrate a clear pattern towards these types of COC and distribution of stoppers was similar in both time periods. While the proportion of new users initiating COC containing levonorgestrel, norethisterone, or norgestimate increased slightly, this did not translate to a decrease in the overall VTE incidence.

Conclusion

All three countries had the greatest proportion of women initiating a COC containing levonorgestrel, norethisterone, or norgestimate, and this proportion increased in the period after the European Commission decision albeit the increase was small due to the high percentage of use before the decision. This did not translate into a measureable change in the incidence of VTE.

Implications

Both before and after the European Commission's decision, the largest proportion of new users started with combined oral contraceptives containing levonorgestrel, norethisterone, or norgestimate. Earlier studies had already indicated an increased risk of VTE associated with COC containing other progestogens compared with these preparations, so it is possible that physicians were already preferentially prescribing COC containing levonorgestrel, norethisterone, or norgestimate to new users.

Comorbidity and the increased mortality after hospitalization for stroke: a population-based cohort study

Essentials Comorbidity is prevalent in the stroke population and affects post-stroke survival. A stroke patient cohort (n = 201 691) and a general population cohort were followed for survival. Cancer and advanced renal/liver disease substantially increased one-year stroke mortality. Tailoring stroke interventions according to comorbidity may reduce excess mortality.

SUMMARY

Background Comorbidity is prevalent among stroke patients, affecting post-stroke survival. It remains unknown whether comorbidity impacts post-stroke mortality beyond the combined individual effects of stroke and comorbidity. Methods Using nationwide Danish databases, we performed a cohort study of 201 691 patients ≥ 18 years old with incident ischemic stroke, intracerebral or subarachnoid hemorrhage, or unspecified stroke during 1995-2012, and 992 942 adults from the general population, matched to stroke patients by birth year, sex and individual comorbidities in the Charlson Comorbidity Index. During up to 5 years of follow-up, we computed standardized mortality rates (SMRs) to assess interaction contrasts as a measure of excess mortality not explained by the additive effects of stroke and comorbidity acting alone. Results Five-year post-stroke mortality was 48%, corresponding to an SMR of 187 deaths per 1000 person-years. During the 30-day peak post-stroke mortality (SMR, 180 per 1000 person-months), interaction with comorbidity represented 23%, 34% and 51% of post-stroke mortality rates among patients with low (score = 1), moderate (score = 2-3) and high (score = 4+) comorbidity based on Charlson Comorbidity Index scores. The interaction accounted for 5% to 32% of subsequent 31-365-day post-stroke mortality rates, depending on comorbidity level. The interaction contrasts were most notable among comorbid patients with cancer, particularly with hematological or metastatic disease, followed by patients with moderate-to-severe liver or renal disease. Conclusion Comorbidity, notably cancer and advanced renal or liver disease, increased 1-year mortality after stroke beyond the combined effects expected from either disease acting alone.

Migraine and risk of cardiovascular diseases: Danish population based matched cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To examine the risks of myocardial infarction, stroke (ischaemic and haemorrhagic), peripheral artery disease, venous thromboembolism, atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter, and heart failure in patients with migraine and in a general population comparison cohort.

DESIGN

Nationwide, population based cohort study.

SETTING

All Danish hospitals and hospital outpatient clinics from 1995 to 2013.

PARTICIPANTS

51 032 patients with migraine and 510 320 people from the general population matched on age, sex, and calendar year.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Comorbidity adjusted hazard ratios of cardiovascular outcomes based on Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

Higher absolute risks were observed among patients with incident migraine than in the general population across most outcomes and follow-up periods. After 19 years of follow-up, the cumulative incidences per 1000 people for the migraine cohort compared with the general population were 25 v 17 for myocardial infarction, 45 v 25 for ischaemic stroke, 11 v 6 for haemorrhagic stroke, 13 v 11 for peripheral artery disease, 27 v 18 for venous thromboembolism, 47 v 34 for atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter, and 19 v 18 for heart failure. Correspondingly, migraine was positively associated with myocardial infarction (adjusted hazard ratio 1.49, 95% confidence interval 1.36 to 1.64), ischaemic stroke (2.26, 2.11 to 2.41), and haemorrhagic stroke (1.94, 1.68 to 2.23), as well as venous thromboembolism (1.59, 1.45 to 1.74) and atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter (1.25, 1.16 to 1.36). No meaningful association was found with peripheral artery disease (adjusted hazard ratio 1.12, 0.96 to 1.30) or heart failure (1.04, 0.93 to 1.16). The associations, particularly for stroke outcomes, were stronger during the short term (0-1 years) after diagnosis than the long term (up to 19 years), in patients with aura than in those without aura, and in women than in men. In a subcohort of patients, the associations persisted after additional multivariable adjustment for body mass index and smoking.

CONCLUSIONS

Migraine was associated with increased risks of myocardial infarction, ischaemic stroke, haemorrhagic stroke, venous thromboembolism, and atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter. Migraine may be an important risk factor for most cardiovascular diseases.

Excess risk of venous thromboembolism in hip fracture patients and the prognostic impact of comorbidity

Hip fracture patients were at increased excess risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) up to 1 year following hip fracture. During the first year, interaction between hip fracture and comorbidity was observed among patients with severe and very severe comorbidity.

INTRODUCTION

We compared the risk of VTE in hip fracture patients with that in the general population. We also examined whether and to what extent the association between hip fracture and VTE varied by comorbidity level.

METHODS

Nationwide cohort study based on Danish health registries, 1995-2015. We identified hip fracture patients (n = 110,563) and sampled a comparison cohort without hip fracture from the general population (n = 552,774). Comorbidity was assessed using the Charlson comorbidity index. We calculated attributable fraction, as the proportion of the VTE rate, among persons exposed to both hip fracture and comorbidity, attributed to exposure interaction.

RESULTS

The cumulative incidences of VTE were 0.73% within 30 days and 0.83% within 31-365 days among hip fracture patients, and 0.05 and 0.43% in the general population. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of VTE among hip fracture patients were 17.29 [95% confidence interval (CI) 14.74-20.28] during the first 30 days and 2.13 (95% CI 1.95-2.32) during 31-365 days following hip fracture. The relative risks of VTE were 1.03 (95% CI 0.96-1.11) and 1.11 (95% CI 1.00-1.23) after 1-5 years and 6-10 years. During the first 30 days and 31-365 days, 14%/28% of VTE rates and 5%/4% of VTE rates were attributable to the interaction between hip fracture and severe/very severe comorbidity, respectively. Mortality risks within 30 days of VTE were 29.4% in hip fracture and 11.0% in general population cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

Hip fracture patients were at increased excess risk of VTE up to 1 year following their fracture. During the first year, interaction between hip fracture and comorbidity was observed among patients with severe and very severe comorbidity.

Conditioning on future exposure to define study cohorts can induce bias: the case of low-dose acetylsalicylic acid and risk of major bleeding

Background

A principle of cohort studies is that cohort membership is defined by current rather than future exposure information. Pharmacoepidemiologic studies using existing databases are vulnerable to violation of this principle. We evaluated the impact of using data on future redemption of prescriptions to determine cohort membership, motivated by a published example seeking to emulate a “per-protocol” association between continuous versus never use of low-dose acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) and major bleeding (e.g., cerebral hemorrhage or gastrointestinal bleeding).

Materials and methods

Danish medical registry data from 2004 to 2011 were used to construct two analytic cohorts. In Cohort 1, we used information about future redemption of low-dose ASA prescriptions to identify cohorts of continuous and never-ASA users. In Cohort 2, we identified ASA initiators and non-initiators using only contemporaneous data and censored follow-up for changes in use over time. We implemented propensity score-matched Poisson regression to evaluate associations between ASA use and major bleeding and estimated adjusted incidence rate differences (IRDs) per 1,000 person-years and ratios (IRRs) overall and stratified by time since initiation.

Results

Among >6 million eligible Danish adults, we identified 403,693 low-dose ASA initiators (Cohort 2), of whom 189,150 were defined as continuous users (Cohort 1). Overall, IRDs and IRRs were similar across cohorts. However, the IRD for major bleeding in the first 90 days was substantially larger in Cohort 1 (IRD=25 per 1,000 person-years) compared with Cohort 2 (IRD=10 per 1,000 person-years).

Conclusion

Using future medication redemption data to define baseline cohorts violates basic epidemiologic principles. Compared with an approach using only contemporaneous data to define cohorts, the approach based on future redemption data generated a substantially higher short-term association between low-dose ASA use and major bleeding on the absolute, but not the relative, scale possibly due to selection and immortal time biases.