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Maertens A, Golden E, Luechtefeld TH, Hoffmann S, Tsaioun K, Hartung T. Probabilistic risk assessment - the keystone for the future of toxicology. ALTEX 2022; 39:3-29. [PMID: 35034131 PMCID: PMC8906258 DOI: 10.14573/altex.2201081] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2022] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
Safety sciences must cope with uncertainty of models and results as well as information gaps. Acknowledging this uncertainty necessitates embracing probabilities and accepting the remaining risk. Every toxicological tool delivers only probable results. Traditionally, this is taken into account by using uncertainty / assessment factors and worst-case / precautionary approaches and thresholds. Probabilistic methods and Bayesian approaches seek to characterize these uncertainties and promise to support better risk assessment and, thereby, improve risk management decisions. Actual assessments of uncertainty can be more realistic than worst-case scenarios and may allow less conservative safety margins. Most importantly, as soon as we agree on uncertainty, this defines room for improvement and allows a transition from traditional to new approach methods as an engineering exercise. The objective nature of these mathematical tools allows to assign each methodology its fair place in evidence integration, whether in the context of risk assessment, systematic reviews, or in the definition of an integrated testing strategy (ITS) / defined approach (DA) / integrated approach to testing and assessment (IATA). This article gives an overview of methods for probabilistic risk assessment and their application for exposure assessment, physiologically-based kinetic modelling, probability of hazard assessment (based on quantitative and read-across based structure-activity relationships, and mechanistic alerts from in vitro studies), individual susceptibility assessment, and evidence integration. Additional aspects are opportunities for uncertainty analysis of adverse outcome pathways and their relation to thresholds of toxicological concern. In conclusion, probabilistic risk assessment will be key for constructing a new toxicology paradigm – probably!
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexandra Maertens
- Center for Alternatives to Animal Testing (CAAT), Johns Hopkins University, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Emily Golden
- Center for Alternatives to Animal Testing (CAAT), Johns Hopkins University, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Thomas H Luechtefeld
- Center for Alternatives to Animal Testing (CAAT), Johns Hopkins University, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.,ToxTrack, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Sebastian Hoffmann
- Center for Alternatives to Animal Testing (CAAT), Johns Hopkins University, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.,seh consulting + services, Paderborn, Germany
| | - Katya Tsaioun
- Center for Alternatives to Animal Testing (CAAT), Johns Hopkins University, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Thomas Hartung
- Center for Alternatives to Animal Testing (CAAT), Johns Hopkins University, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.,CAAT Europe, University of Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany
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Maertens A, Tran VP, Maertens M, Kleensang A, Luechtefeld TH, Hartung T, Paller CJ. Author Correction: Functionally Enigmatic Genes in Cancer: Using TCGA Data to Map the Limitations of Annotations. Sci Rep 2020; 10:9718. [PMID: 32528098 PMCID: PMC7289828 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-66767-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexandra Maertens
- Johns Hopkins University, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Center for Alternatives to Animal Testing (CAAT), Baltimore, MD, United States
| | - Vy P Tran
- Johns Hopkins University, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Center for Alternatives to Animal Testing (CAAT), Baltimore, MD, United States
| | - Mikhail Maertens
- Johns Hopkins University, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Center for Alternatives to Animal Testing (CAAT), Baltimore, MD, United States
| | - Andre Kleensang
- Johns Hopkins University, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Center for Alternatives to Animal Testing (CAAT), Baltimore, MD, United States
| | - Thomas H Luechtefeld
- Johns Hopkins University, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Center for Alternatives to Animal Testing (CAAT), Baltimore, MD, United States.,ToxTrack LLC, Baltimore, USA
| | - Thomas Hartung
- Johns Hopkins University, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Center for Alternatives to Animal Testing (CAAT), Baltimore, MD, United States.,University of Konstanz, CAAT-Europe, Konstanz, Germany
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