Predicting wildfire particulate matter and hypothetical re-emission of radiological Cs-137 contamination incidents

Radiological release incidents can potentially contaminate widespread areas with radioactive materials and decontamination efforts are typically focused on populated areas, which means radionuclides may be left in forested areas for long periods of time. Large wildfires in contaminated forested areas have the potential to reintroduce these radionuclides into the atmosphere and cause exposure to first responders and downwind communities. One important radionuclide contaminant released from radiological incidents is radiocesium (¹³⁷Cs) due to high yields and its long half-life of 30.2 years. An Eulerian 3D photochemical transport model was used to estimate potential ambient impacts of ¹³⁷Cs re-emission due to wildfire following hypothetical radiological release scenarios. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model did well at predicting levels and periods of increased PM2.5 carbon due to wildfire smoke at routine surface monitors in California during the summer of 2016. The model also did well at capturing the extent of the surface mixing layer compared to aerosol lidar measurements. Emissions from a large hypothetical wildfire were introduced into the wildland-urban interface (WUI) impacted by a hypothetical radiological release event. While ambient concentrations tended to be highest near the fire, the highest population committed effective dose equivalent by inhalation to an adult from ¹³⁷Cs over an hour was downwind where wind flows moved smoke to high population areas. Seasonal variations in meteorology (wind flows) can result in differential population impacts even in the same metropolitan area. Modeled post-incident ambient levels of ¹³⁷Cs both near these wildfires and further downwind in nearby urban areas were well below levels that would necessitate population evacuation or warrant other protective action recommendations such as shelter-in-place. These results suggest that 1) the modeling system captures local to regional scale transport and levels of PM2.5 from wildfire and 2) first responders and downwind population would not be expected to be at elevated risk from the initial inhalathion exposure of ¹³⁷Cs re-emission.

Cesium emissions from laboratory fires

If a radiological incident such as a nuclear power plant accident, a radiological dispersal device, or detonation of an improvised nuclear device occurs, significant areas may be contaminated. Initial cleanup priorities would likely focus on populated areas, leaving the forested areas to pass several seasons where the overhead canopy materials would fall to the forest floor. In the event of a wildfire in a radionuclide-contaminated forest, some radionuclides would be emitted in the air while the rest would remain in the ash. This paper reports on a laboratory simulation study that examines the partitioning of cesium-133 (a nonradioactive isotope of cesium) between airborne particulate matter and residual nonentrained ash when pine needles and peat are doped with cesium. Only 1-2.5% of the doped cesium in pine needles was emitted as particulate matter, and most of the cesium was concentrated in the particulate fraction greater than 10 µm in aerodynamic diameter. For peat fires, virtually all of the cesium remained in the ash. The results from this study will be used for modeling efforts to assess potential exposure risks to firefighters and the surrounding public. Implications: There is a potential for emissions of radionuclides such as cesium-137 from a wildfire over a radionuclide-contaminated forest. This paper reports on a laboratory simulation study of a wildfire with two types of biomass doped with nonradioactive cesium. This simulation suggests that only 1-2.5% of the cesium in the biomass will be emitted from the wildfire, while the rest will reside in the residual ash. In this study, pine needles were the only contributor to the air emissions of cesium; duff was not a source of cesium emissions. In this study, cesium emitted from the simulated wildfire was concentrated in the particle sizes larger than 10 µm.

Monitoring of dispersed smoke-plume layers by determining locations of the data-point clusters

A modified data-processing technique of the signals recorded by zenith-directed lidar, which operates in smoke-polluted atmosphere, is discussed. The technique is based on simple transformations of the lidar backscatter signal and the determination of the spatial location of the data point clusters.

The technique allows more reliable detection of the location of dispersed smoke layering. Examples of typical results obtained with lidar in a smokepolluted atmosphere are presented.

Backscatter near-end solution in processing of scanning lidar data

The significant issue of the classic multiangle data-processing technique is that the height up to which this technique allows the reliable profiling of the searched atmosphere is always significantly less than the maximum operative range of the scanning lidar signals. The existing multiangle inversion methodology does not allow for the proper inversion into optical profiles of the distant range signals measured in and close to zenith. In this study, a data-processing technique is considered which allows for increasing the maximal heights when profiling the atmosphere with scanning lidar; it is achieved by using the auxiliary backscatter near-end solution and the assumption of a constant lidar ratio over high altitudes. Simulated and experimental data are presented that illustrate the specifics of such a combined technique.

Determination of the smoke-plume heights and their dynamics with ground-based scanning lidar

Lidar-data processing techniques are analyzed, which allow determining smoke-plume heights and their dynamics and can be helpful for the improvement of smoke dispersion and air quality models. The data processing algorithms considered in the paper are based on the analysis of two alternative characteristics related to the smoke dispersion process: the regularized intercept function, extracted directly from the recorded lidar signal, and the square-range corrected backscatter signal, obtained after determining and subtracting the constant offset in the recorded signal. The analysis is performed using experimental data of the scanning lidar obtained in the area of prescribed fires.

Wildfires in Chernobyl-contaminated forests and risks to the population and the environment: a new nuclear disaster about to happen?

Radioactive contamination in Ukraine, Belarus and Russia after the Chernobyl accident left large rural and forest areas to their own fate. Forest succession in conjunction with lack of forest management started gradually transforming the landscape. During the last 28 years dead wood and litter have dramatically accumulated in these areas, whereas climate change has increased temperature and favored drought. The present situation in these forests suggests an increased risk of wildfires, especially after the pronounced forest fires of 2010, which remobilized Chernobyl-deposited radioactive materials transporting them thousand kilometers far. For the aforementioned reasons, we study the consequences of different forest fires on the redistribution of (137)Cs. Using the time frequency of the fires that occurred in the area during 2010, we study three scenarios assuming that 10%, 50% and 100% of the area are burnt. We aim to sensitize the scientific community and the European authorities for the foreseen risks from radioactivity redistribution over Europe. The global model LMDZORINCA that reads deposition density of radionuclides and burnt area from satellites was used, whereas risks for the human and animal population were calculated using the Linear No-Threshold (LNT) model and the computerized software ERICA Tool, respectively. Depending on the scenario, whereas between 20 and 240 humans may suffer from solid cancers, of which 10-170 may be fatal. ERICA predicts insignificant changes in animal populations from the fires, whereas the already extreme radioactivity background plays a major role in their living quality. The resulting releases of (137)Cs after hypothetical wildfires in Chernobyl's forests are classified as high in the International Nuclear Events Scale (INES). The estimated cancer incidents and fatalities are expected to be comparable to those predicted for Fukushima. This is attributed to the fact that the distribution of radioactive fallout after the wildfires occurred to the intensely populated Western Europe, whereas after Fukushima it occurred towards the Pacific Ocean. The situation will be exacerbated near the forests not only due to the expected redistribution of refractory radionuclides (also trapped there), but also due to the nutritional habits of the local human and animal population.

Direct multiangle solution for poorly stratified atmospheres

The direct multiangle solution is considered, which allows improving the scanning lidar-data-inversion accuracy when the requirement of the horizontally stratified atmosphere is poorly met. The signal measured at zenith or close to zenith is used as a core source for extracting optical characteristics of the atmospheric aerosol loading. The multiangle signals are used as auxiliary data to extract the vertical transmittance profile from the zenith signal. Details of the retrieval methodology are considered that eliminate, or at least soften, some specific ambiguities in the multiangle measurements in horizontally heterogeneous atmospheres. Simulated and experimental elastic lidar data are presented that illustrate the essentials of the data-processing technique. Finally, the prospects of the utilization of high-spectral-resolution lidar in the multiangle mode are discussed.

Lidar monitoring of regions of intense backscatter with poorly defined boundaries

The upper height of a region of intense backscatter with a poorly defined boundary between this region and a region of clear air above it is found as the maximal height where aerosol heterogeneity is detectable, that is, where it can be discriminated from noise. The theoretical basis behind the retrieval technique and the corresponding lidar-data-processing procedures are discussed. We also show how such a technique can be applied to one-directional measurements. Examples of typical results obtained with a scanning lidar in smoke-polluted atmospheres and experimental data obtained in an urban atmosphere with a vertically pointing lidar are presented.

Determination of smoke plume and layer heights using scanning lidar data

The methodology of using mobile scanning lidar data for investigation of smoke plume rise and high-resolution smoke dispersion is considered. The methodology is based on the lidar-signal transformation proposed recently [Appl. Opt. 48, 2559 (2009)]. In this study, similar methodology is used to create the atmospheric heterogeneity height indicator (HHI), which shows all heights at which the smoke plume heterogeneity was detected by a scanning lidar. The methodology is simple and robust. Subtraction of the initial lidar signal offset from the measured lidar signal is not required. HHI examples derived from lidar scans obtained with the U.S. Forest Service, Fire Sciences Laboratory mobile lidar in areas polluted by wildfires are presented, and the basic details of the methodology are discussed.

Alternative method for determining the constant offset in lidar signal

We present an alternative method for determining the total offset in lidar signal created by a daytime background-illumination component and electrical or digital offset. Unlike existing techniques, here the signal square-range-correction procedure is initially performed using the total signal recorded by lidar, without subtraction of the offset component. While performing the square-range correction, the lidar-signal monotonic change due to the molecular component of the atmosphere is simultaneously compensated. After these corrections, the total offset is found by determining the slope of the above transformed signal versus a function that is defined as a ratio of the squared range and two molecular scattering components, the backscatter and transmittance. The slope is determined over a far end of the measurement range where aerosol loading is zero or, at least, minimum. An important aspect of this method is that the presence of a moderate aerosol loading over the far end does not increase dramatically the error in determining the lidar-signal offset. The comparison of the new technique with a conventional technique of the total-offset estimation is made using simulated and experimental data. The one-directional and multiangle measurements are analyzed and specifics in the estimate of the uncertainty limits due to remaining shifts in the inverted lidar signals are discussed. The use of the new technique allows a more accurate estimate of the signal constant offset, and accordingly, yields more accurate lidar-signal inversion results.

Determination of the particulate extinction-coefficient profile and the column-integrated lidar ratios using the backscatter-coefficient and optical-depth profiles

A new method is considered that can be used for inverting data obtained from a combined elastic-inelastic lidar or a high spectral resolution lidar operating in a one-directional mode, or an elastic lidar operating in a multiangle mode. The particulate extinction coefficient is retrieved from the simultaneously measured profiles of the particulate backscatter coefficient and the particulate optical depth. The stepwise profile of the column-integrated lidar ratio is found that provides best matching of the initial (inverted) profile of the optical depth to that obtained by the inversion of the backscatter-coefficient profile. The retrieval of the extinction coefficient is made without using numerical differentiation. The method reduces the level of random noise in the retrieved extinction coefficient to the level of noise in the inverted backscatter coefficient. Examples of simulated and experimental data are presented.

Experimental method for the examination of systematic distortions in lidar data

An experimental method for determining the presence and the level of systematic distortions in lidar data is considered. The method has been developed on the basis of two years of field experiments with the Fire Sciences Laboratory elastic scanning lidar. The influence of multiplicative and additive distortion components is considered using numerical experiments and is illustrated with experimental data. The examination method is most applicable for short wavelengths at which the atmospheric molecular component in clear atmospheres is large enough to stabilize the Kano-Hamilton multiangle solution, based on the assumption of horizontal atmospheric homogeneity.

Emissions from laboratory combustion of wildland fuels: emission factors and source profiles

Combustion of wildland fuels represents a major source of particulate matter (PM) and light-absorbing elemental carbon (EC) on a national and global scale, but the emission factors and source profiles have not been well characterized with respect to different fuels and combustion phases. These uncertainties limit the accuracy of current emission inventories, smoke forecasts, and source apportionments. This study investigates the evolution of gaseous and particulate emission and combustion efficiency by burning wildland fuels in a laboratory combustion facility. Emission factors for carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), total hydrocarbon (THC), nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), PM, light extinction and absorption cross sections, and spectral scattering cross sections specific to flaming and smoldering phases are reported. Emission factors are generally reproducible within +/- 20% during the flaming phase, which, despite its short duration, dominates the carbon emission (mostly in the form of CO2) and the production of light absorption and EC. Higher and more variable emission factors for CO, THC, and PM are found during the smoldering phase, especially for fuels containing substantial moisture. Organic carbon (OC) and EC mass account for a majority (i.e., > 60%) of PM mass; other important elements include potassium, chlorine, and sulfur. Thermal analysis separates the EC into subfractions based on analysis temperature demonstrating that high-temperature EC (EC2; at 700 degrees C) varies from 1% to 70% of PM among biomass burns, compared to 75% in kerosene soot. Despite this, the conversion factor between EC and light absorption emissions is rather consistent across fuels and burns, ranging from 7.8 to 9.6 m2/g EC. Findings from this study should be considered in the development of PM and EC emission inventories for visibility and radiative forcing assessments.

Simple algorithm to determine the near-edge smoke boundaries with scanning lidar

We propose a modified algorithm for the gradient method to determine the near-edge smoke plume boundaries using backscatter signals of a scanning lidar. The running derivative of the ratio of the signal standard deviation (STD) to the accumulated sum of the STD is calculated, and the location of the global maximum of this function is found. No empirical criteria are required to determine smoke boundaries; thus the algorithm can be used without a priori selection of threshold values. The modified gradient method is not sensitive to the signal random noise at the far end of the lidar measurement range. Experimental data obtained with the Fire Sciences Laboratory lidar during routine prescribed fires in Montana were used to test the algorithm. Analysis results are presented that demonstrate the robustness of this algorithm.

Differential susceptibility of metastatic lymphoma cells to natural immunity

The susceptibility of metastatic variant lymphoma cells to natural immunity was studied using a low malignant/metastatic parental RAW117-P cell line and its liver colonizing highly malignant/metastatic RAW117-H10 cell line. The metastatic variant RAW117-H10 cells express a significantly lower amount of laminin-like and fibronectin-like molecules as determined by flow cytometry using monospecific polyclonal antibodies to laminin and fibronectin. Our studies indicated that the RAW117-H10 cells are resistant to natural killer (NK) cell-mediated cytotoxicity. In vitro activation of the effector cells with interferon-gamma increased the susceptibility of these cells to NK-mediated cytotoxicity while maintaining the difference between the two cell lines. However, when recombinant interleukin-2 was used to activate the effector cells, the cytotoxicity of the lymphokine-activated effector cells to both parental low metastatic RAW117-P cells and highly metastatic RAW117-H10 cells was similar.

Salt-induced conversion of B-DNA to Z-DNA inhibited by aflatoxin B1

The carcinogen aflatoxin B1 was reacted with a polymer of alternating deoxyguanine and deoxycytosine residues to determine the effect that adduct formation has on the conversion of this polymer from the right-handed B-DNA form found at low salt concentrations to the left-handed Z-DNA form found at high salt concentrations. Reaction with aflatoxin strongly inhibited the salt-induced conversion of this polymer from B-DNA to Z-DNA. This inhibition could be detected even at relatively low binding levels.