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Gidden MJ, Gasser T, Grassi G, Forsell N, Janssens I, Lamb WF, Minx J, Nicholls Z, Steinhauser J, Riahi K. Aligning climate scenarios to emissions inventories shifts global benchmarks. Nature 2023; 624:102-108. [PMID: 37993713 PMCID: PMC10700135 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06724-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2023] [Accepted: 10/06/2023] [Indexed: 11/24/2023]
Abstract
Taking stock of global progress towards achieving the Paris Agreement requires consistently measuring aggregate national actions and pledges against modelled mitigation pathways1. However, national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) and scientific assessments of anthropogenic emissions follow different accounting conventions for land-based carbon fluxes resulting in a large difference in the present emission estimates2,3, a gap that will evolve over time. Using state-of-the-art methodologies4 and a land carbon-cycle emulator5, we align the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-assessed mitigation pathways with the NGHGIs to make a comparison. We find that the key global mitigation benchmarks become harder to achieve when calculated using the NGHGI conventions, requiring both earlier net-zero CO2 timing and lower cumulative emissions. Furthermore, weakening natural carbon removal processes such as carbon fertilization can mask anthropogenic land-based removal efforts, with the result that land-based carbon fluxes in NGHGIs may ultimately become sources of emissions by 2100. Our results are important for the Global Stocktake6, suggesting that nations will need to increase the collective ambition of their climate targets to remain consistent with the global temperature goals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew J Gidden
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
- Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany.
| | - Thomas Gasser
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Giacomo Grassi
- Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy
| | - Nicklas Forsell
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Iris Janssens
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
- Department of Computer Science, imec, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium
| | - William F Lamb
- Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin, Germany
- Priestley International Centre of Climate, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Jan Minx
- Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin, Germany
- Priestley International Centre of Climate, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Zebedee Nicholls
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
- Melbourne Climate Future's Doctoral Academy, School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
- Climate Resource, Northcote, Victoria, Australia
| | - Jan Steinhauser
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Keywan Riahi
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
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2
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Nicholls Z, Meinshausen M, Lewis J, Smith CJ, Forster PM, Fuglestvedt JS, Rogelj J, Kikstra JS, Riahi K, Byers E. Changes in IPCC Scenario Assessment Emulators Between SR1.5 and AR6 Unraveled. Geophys Res Lett 2022; 49:e2022GL099788. [PMID: 36589268 PMCID: PMC9788315 DOI: 10.1029/2022gl099788] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2022] [Revised: 09/29/2022] [Accepted: 10/05/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
The IPCC's scientific assessment of the timing of net-zero emissions and 2030 emission reduction targets consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C rests on large scenario databases. Updates to this assessment, such as between the IPCC's Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR1.5) of warming and the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), are the result of intertwined, sometimes opaque, factors. Here we isolate one factor: the Earth System Model emulators used to estimate the global warming implications of scenarios. We show that warming projections using AR6-calibrated emulators are consistent, to within around 0.1°C, with projections made by the emulators used in SR1.5. The consistency is due to two almost compensating changes: the increase in assessed historical warming between SR1.5 (based on AR5) and AR6, and a reduction in projected warming due to improved agreement between the emulators' response to emissions and the assessment to which it is calibrated.
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Affiliation(s)
- Z. Nicholls
- International Institute for Applied System AnalysisIIASALaxenburgAustria
- Climate & Energy CollegeSchool of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric SciencesThe University of MelbourneParkvilleVICAustralia
- Climate ResourceNorthcoteVICAustralia
| | - M. Meinshausen
- Climate & Energy CollegeSchool of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric SciencesThe University of MelbourneParkvilleVICAustralia
- Climate ResourceNorthcoteVICAustralia
| | - J. Lewis
- International Institute for Applied System AnalysisIIASALaxenburgAustria
- Climate & Energy CollegeSchool of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric SciencesThe University of MelbourneParkvilleVICAustralia
- Climate ResourceNorthcoteVICAustralia
| | - C. J. Smith
- International Institute for Applied System AnalysisIIASALaxenburgAustria
- Priestley International Centre for ClimateUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
| | - P. M. Forster
- Priestley International Centre for ClimateUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
| | | | - J. Rogelj
- International Institute for Applied System AnalysisIIASALaxenburgAustria
- Centre for Environmental PolicyImperial College LondonLondonUK
- Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the EnvironmentImperial College LondonLondonUK
| | - J. S. Kikstra
- International Institute for Applied System AnalysisIIASALaxenburgAustria
- Centre for Environmental PolicyImperial College LondonLondonUK
- Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the EnvironmentImperial College LondonLondonUK
| | - K. Riahi
- International Institute for Applied System AnalysisIIASALaxenburgAustria
| | - E. Byers
- International Institute for Applied System AnalysisIIASALaxenburgAustria
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Ou Y, Iyer G, Clarke L, Edmonds J, Fawcett AA, Hultman N, McFarland JR, Binsted M, Cui R, Fyson C, Geiges A, Gonzales-Zuñiga S, Gidden MJ, Höhne N, Jeffery L, Kuramochi T, Lewis J, Meinshausen M, Nicholls Z, Patel P, Ragnauth S, Rogelj J, Waldhoff S, Yu S, McJeon H. Can updated climate pledges limit warming well below 2°C? Science 2021; 374:693-695. [PMID: 34735225 DOI: 10.1126/science.abl8976] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
[Figure: see text].
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Affiliation(s)
- Yang Ou
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | - Gokul Iyer
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | - Leon Clarke
- Center for Global Sustainability, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | - Jae Edmonds
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | | | - Nathan Hultman
- Center for Global Sustainability, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA.,US Department of State, Washington, DC 20520, USA
| | | | - Matthew Binsted
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | - Ryna Cui
- Center for Global Sustainability, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | | | | | | | - Matthew J Gidden
- Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany.,International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Niklas Höhne
- NewClimate Institute, Cologne, Germany.,Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, Netherlands
| | | | - Takeshi Kuramochi
- NewClimate Institute, Cologne, Germany.,Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Jared Lewis
- Australian-German Climate and Energy College, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.,School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.,Climate Resource, Northcote, Victoria, Australia
| | - Malte Meinshausen
- Australian-German Climate and Energy College, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.,School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.,Climate Resource, Northcote, Victoria, Australia
| | - Zebedee Nicholls
- Australian-German Climate and Energy College, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.,School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.,Climate Resource, Northcote, Victoria, Australia
| | - Pralit Patel
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | | | - Joeri Rogelj
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.,Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Stephanie Waldhoff
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | - Sha Yu
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | - Haewon McJeon
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
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Huppmann D, Gidden MJ, Nicholls Z, Hörsch J, Lamboll R, Kishimoto PN, Burandt T, Fricko O, Byers E, Kikstra J, Brinkerink M, Budzinski M, Maczek F, Zwickl-Bernhard S, Welder L, Álvarez Quispe EF, Smith CJ. pyam: Analysis and visualisation of integrated assessment and macro-energy scenarios. Open Res Eur 2021; 1:74. [PMID: 37645194 PMCID: PMC10446008 DOI: 10.12688/openreseurope.13633.2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 08/12/2021] [Indexed: 08/31/2023]
Abstract
The open-source Python package pyam provides a suite of features and methods for the analysis, validation and visualization of reference data and scenario results generated by integrated assessment models, macro-energy tools and other frameworks in the domain of energy transition, climate change mitigation and sustainable development. It bridges the gap between scenario processing and visualisation solutions that are "hard-wired" to specific modelling frameworks and generic data analysis or plotting packages. The package aims to facilitate reproducibility and reliability of scenario processing, validation and analysis by providing well-tested and documented methods for working with timeseries data in the context of climate policy and energy systems. It supports various data formats, including sub-annual resolution using continuous time representation and "representative timeslices". The pyam package can be useful for modelers generating scenario results using their own tools as well as researchers and analysts working with existing scenario ensembles such as those supporting the IPCC reports or produced in research projects. It is structured in a way that it can be applied irrespective of a user's domain expertise or level of Python knowledge, supporting experts as well as novice users. The code base is implemented following best practices of collaborative scientific-software development. This manuscript describes the design principles of the package and the types of data which can be handled. The usefulness of pyam is illustrated by highlighting several recent applications.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel Huppmann
- Energy, Climate and Environment Program (ECE), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Matthew J. Gidden
- Energy, Climate and Environment Program (ECE), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
- Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany
| | - Zebedee Nicholls
- Climate & Energy College, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
- School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
| | | | - Robin Lamboll
- The Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Paul N. Kishimoto
- Energy, Climate and Environment Program (ECE), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Thorsten Burandt
- Workgroup for Infrastructure Policy, Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Oliver Fricko
- Energy, Climate and Environment Program (ECE), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Edward Byers
- Energy, Climate and Environment Program (ECE), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Jarmo Kikstra
- Energy, Climate and Environment Program (ECE), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
- The Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Maarten Brinkerink
- MaREI Centre, Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland
| | - Maik Budzinski
- Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | | | | | | | | | - Christopher J. Smith
- Energy, Climate and Environment Program (ECE), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
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Manivannan S, Sharouf F, Mayo I, Albaqer H, Mehrez M, Jaber H, Nicholls Z, Woodward BO, Watkins WJ, Zaben M. Management of neurotrauma during COVID-19: a single centre experience and lessons for the future. Brain Inj 2021; 35:957-963. [PMID: 34184612 DOI: 10.1080/02699052.2021.1934731] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/01/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is amongst the leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. The unprecedented emergence of COVID-19 has mandated neurosurgeons to limit viral spread and spare hospital resources whilst trying to adapt management plans for TBI. We aimed to characterize how this affects decision-making on TBI management and drive strategies to cope with future expected waves. METHODS Retrospective TBI data collection from a single tertiary referral unit was performed between: 01/04/2019 - 30/06/2019 ('Pre-Epidemic') and 01/04/2020 - 30/06/20 ('Epidemic'). Demographics, mechanism of injury, TBI severity, radiological findings, alcohol/anticoagulants/antiplatelets use, and management decisions were extracted. RESULTS 646 TBI referrals were received in 'Pre-Epidemic' (N = 317) and 'Epidemic' (N = 280) groups. There was reduction in RTA-associated TBI (14.8 vs 9.3%; p = .04) and increase in patients on anticoagulants (14.2 vs 23.6%; p = .003) in the 'Epidemic' group. Despite similarities between other TBI-associated variables, a significantly greater proportion of patients were managed conservatively in local referring units without neurosurgical services (39.1 vs 56.8%; p < .0001), predominantly constituted by mild TBI. CONCLUSION Despite COVID-19 public health measures, the burden of TBI remains eminent. Increases in local TBI management warrant vigilance from primary healthcare services to meet post-TBI needs in the community.
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Affiliation(s)
- S Manivannan
- Department of Neurosurgery, Southampton General Hospital, Southampton, UK
| | - F Sharouf
- Department of Neurosurgery, University Hospital of Wales, Cardiff, UK
| | - I Mayo
- Department of Neurosurgery, University Hospital of Wales, Cardiff, UK
| | - H Albaqer
- Department of Neurosurgery, University Hospital of Wales, Cardiff, UK
| | - M Mehrez
- Department of Neurosurgery, University Hospital of Wales, Cardiff, UK
| | - H Jaber
- Department of Radiology, University Hospital of Wales, Cardiff, UK
| | - Z Nicholls
- Department of Radiology, University Hospital of Wales, Cardiff, UK
| | - B O Woodward
- Department of Radiology, University Hospital of Wales, Cardiff, UK
| | - W J Watkins
- Department of Infection & Immunity, College of Biomedical & Life Sciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK
| | - M Zaben
- Department of Neurosurgery, University Hospital of Wales, Cardiff, UK
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6
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Nicholls Z, Meinshausen M, Lewis J, Corradi MR, Dorheim K, Gasser T, Gieseke R, Hope AP, Leach NJ, McBride LA, Quilcaille Y, Rogelj J, Salawitch RJ, Samset BH, Sandstad M, Shiklomanov A, Skeie RB, Smith CJ, Smith SJ, Su X, Tsutsui J, Vega‐Westhoff B, Woodard DL. Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections. Earths Future 2021; 9:e2020EF001900. [PMID: 34222555 PMCID: PMC8243973 DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001900] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/12/2020] [Revised: 03/23/2021] [Accepted: 04/25/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Over the last decades, climate science has evolved rapidly across multiple expert domains. Our best tools to capture state-of-the-art knowledge in an internally self-consistent modeling framework are the increasingly complex fully coupled Earth System Models (ESMs). However, computational limitations and the structural rigidity of ESMs mean that the full range of uncertainties across multiple domains are difficult to capture with ESMs alone. The tools of choice are instead more computationally efficient reduced complexity models (RCMs), which are structurally flexible and can span the response dynamics across a range of domain-specific models and ESM experiments. Here we present Phase 2 of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP Phase 2), the first comprehensive intercomparison of RCMs that are probabilistically calibrated with key benchmark ranges from specialized research communities. Unsurprisingly, but crucially, we find that models which have been constrained to reflect the key benchmarks better reflect the key benchmarks. Under the low-emissions SSP1-1.9 scenario, across the RCMs, median peak warming projections range from 1.3 to 1.7°C (relative to 1850-1900, using an observationally based historical warming estimate of 0.8°C between 1850-1900 and 1995-2014). Further developing methodologies to constrain these projection uncertainties seems paramount given the international community's goal to contain warming to below 1.5°C above preindustrial in the long-term. Our findings suggest that users of RCMs should carefully evaluate their RCM, specifically its skill against key benchmarks and consider the need to include projections benchmarks either from ESM results or other assessments to reduce divergence in future projections.
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Affiliation(s)
- Z. Nicholls
- Australian‐German Climate & Energy CollegeUniversity of MelbourneParkvilleVICAustralia
- School of Earth SciencesUniversity of MelbourneParkvilleVICAustralia
| | - M. Meinshausen
- Australian‐German Climate & Energy CollegeUniversity of MelbourneParkvilleVICAustralia
- School of Earth SciencesUniversity of MelbourneParkvilleVICAustralia
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchMember of the Leibniz AssociationPotsdamGermany
| | - J. Lewis
- Australian‐German Climate & Energy CollegeUniversity of MelbourneParkvilleVICAustralia
| | - M. Rojas Corradi
- Department of GeophysicsUniversity of ChileSantiagoChile
- Center for Climate and Resilience ResearchCR2SantiagoChile
| | - K. Dorheim
- Pacficic Northwest National LaboratoryRichlandWAUSA
| | - T. Gasser
- International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisLaxenburgAustria
| | | | - A. P. Hope
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic ScienceUniversity of Maryland‐College ParkCollege ParkUSA
| | - N. J. Leach
- Department of PhysicsAtmospheric, Oceanic, and Planetary PhysicsUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
| | - L. A. McBride
- Department of Chemistry and BiochemistryUniversity of Maryland‐College ParkCollege ParkMDUSA
| | - Y. Quilcaille
- International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisLaxenburgAustria
| | - J. Rogelj
- International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisLaxenburgAustria
- Grantham InstituteImperial College LondonLondonUK
| | - R. J. Salawitch
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic ScienceUniversity of Maryland‐College ParkCollege ParkUSA
- Department of Chemistry and BiochemistryUniversity of Maryland‐College ParkCollege ParkMDUSA
- Earth System Science Interdisciplinary CenterUniversity of Maryland‐College ParkCollege ParkMDUSA
| | - B. H. Samset
- CICERO Center for International Climate ResearchOsloNorway
| | - M. Sandstad
- CICERO Center for International Climate ResearchOsloNorway
| | | | - R. B. Skeie
- CICERO Center for International Climate ResearchOsloNorway
| | - C. J. Smith
- International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisLaxenburgAustria
- Priestley International Centre for ClimateUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
| | - S. J. Smith
- Joint Global Change Research InstitutePacific Northwest National LaboratoryCollege ParkMDUSA
| | - X. Su
- Research Institute for Global Change/Research Center for Environmental Modeling and Application/Earth System Model Development and Application GroupJapan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and TechnologyYokohamaJapan
| | - J. Tsutsui
- Environmental Science Research LaboratoryCentral Research Institute of Electric Power IndustryAbikoJapan
| | - B. Vega‐Westhoff
- Department of Atmospheric SciencesUniversity of Illinois at Urbana‐ChampaignUrbanaILUSA
| | - D. L. Woodard
- Center for Climate and Resilience ResearchCR2SantiagoChile
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