Infectivity of Wild-Bird Origin Influenza A Viruses in Minnesota Wetlands across Seasons

The environmental tenacity of influenza A viruses (IAVs) in the environment likely plays a role in their transmission; IAVs are able to remain infectious in aquatic habitats and may have the capacity to seed outbreaks when susceptible wild bird hosts utilize these same environments months or even seasons later. Here, we aimed to assess the persistence of low-pathogenicity IAVs from naturally infected ducks in Northwestern Minnesota through a field experiment. Viral infectivity was measured using replicate samples maintained in distilled water in a laboratory setting as well as in filtered water from four natural water bodies maintained in steel perforated drums (hereafter, mesocosms) within the field from autumn 2020 to spring 2021. There was limited evidence for the extended persistence of IAVs held in mesocosms; from 65 initial IAV-positive samples, only six IAVs persisted to at least 202 days in the mesocosms compared to 17 viruses persisting at least this long when held under temperature-controlled laboratory settings in distilled water. When accounting for the initial titer of samples, viruses detected at a higher concentration at the initiation of the experiment persisted longer than those with a lower starting titer. A parallel experimental laboratory model was used to further explore the effects of water type on viral persistence, and the results supported the finding of reduced tenacity of IAVs held in mesocosms compared to distilled water. The results of this investigation provide evidence that many factors, including temperature and physicochemical properties, impact the duration of viral infectivity in natural settings, further extending our understanding of the potential and limitations of environmental-based methodologies to recover infectious IAVs.

Intercomparison of Same-Day Remote Sensing Data for Measuring Winter Cover Crop Biophysical Traits

Winter cover crops are planted during the fall to reduce nitrogen losses and soil erosion and improve soil health. Accurate estimations of winter cover crop performance and biophysical traits including biomass and fractional vegetative groundcover support accurate assessment of environmental benefits. We examined the comparability of measurements between ground-based and spaceborne sensors as well as between processing levels (e.g., surface vs. top-of-atmosphere reflectance) in estimating cover crop biophysical traits. This research examined the relationships between SPOT 5, Landsat 7, and WorldView-2 same-day paired satellite imagery and handheld multispectral proximal sensors on two days during the 2012-2013 winter cover crop season. We compared two processing levels from three satellites with spatially aggregated proximal data for red and green spectral bands as well as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). We then compared NDVI estimated fractional green cover to in-situ photographs, and we derived cover crop biomass estimates from NDVI using existing calibration equations. We used slope and intercept contrasts to test whether estimates of biomass and fractional green cover differed statistically between sensors and processing levels. Compared to top-of-atmosphere imagery, surface reflectance imagery were more closely correlated with proximal sensors, with intercepts closer to zero, regression slopes nearer to the 1:1 line, and less variance between measured values. Additionally, surface reflectance NDVI derived from satellites showed strong agreement with passive handheld multispectral proximal sensor-sensor estimated fractional green cover and biomass (adj. R2 = 0.96 and 0.95; RMSE = 4.76% and 259 kg ha-1, respectively). Although active handheld multispectral proximal sensor-sensor derived fractional green cover and biomass estimates showed high accuracies (R2 = 0.96 and 0.96, respectively), they also demonstrated large intercept offsets (-25.5 and 4.51, respectively). Our results suggest that many passive multispectral remote sensing platforms may be used interchangeably to assess cover crop biophysical traits whereas SPOT 5 required an adjustment in NDVI intercept. Active sensors may require separate calibrations or intercept correction prior to combination with passive sensor data. Although surface reflectance products were highly correlated with proximal sensors, the standardized cloud mask failed to completely capture cloud shadows in Landsat 7, which dampened the signal of NIR and red bands in shadowed pixels.

Increasing Salt Marsh Elevation Using Sediment Augmentation: Critical Insights from Surface Sediments and Sediment Cores

Sea-level rise is particularly concerning for tidal wetlands that reside within an area with steep topography or are constrained by human development and alteration of sedimentation. Sediment augmentation to increase wetland elevations has been considered as a potential strategy for such areas to prevent wetland loss over the coming decades. However, there is little information on the best approaches and whether adaptive management actions can mimic natural processes to build sea-level rise resilience. In addition, the lack of information on long-term marsh characteristics, processes, and variability can hamper development of effective augmentation strategies. Here, we assess a case study in a southern California marsh to determine the nature of the pre-existing sediments and variability of the site in relation to sediments applied during an augmentation experiment. Although sediment cores revealed natural variations in the grain size and organic content of sediments deposited at the site over the past 1500 years, the applied sediments were markedly coarser in grain size than prehistoric sediments at the site (100% maximum sand versus 76% maximum sand). The rate of the experimental sediment application (25.1 ± 1.09 cm in ~2 months) was also much more rapid than natural accretion rates measured for the site historically. In contrast, post-augmentation sediment accretion rates on the augmentation site have been markedly slower than pre-augmentation rates or current rates on a nearby control site. The mismatch between the characteristics of the applied sediment and thickness of application and the historic conditions are likely strong contributors to the slow initial recovery of vegetation. Sediment augmentation has been shown to be a useful strategy in some marshes, but this case study illustrates that vegetation recovery may be slow if applied sediments are not similar or at a thickness similar to historic conditions. However, testing adaptation strategies to build wetland elevations is important given the long-term risk of habitat loss with sea-level rise. Lessons learned in the case study could be applied elsewhere.

Groundwater residence time estimates obscured by anthropogenic carbonate

Groundwater is an important source of drinking and irrigation water. Dating groundwater informs its vulnerability to contamination and aids in calibrating flow models. Here, we report measurements of multiple age tracers (¹⁴C, ³H, ³⁹Ar, and ⁸⁵Kr) and parameters relevant to dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from 17 wells in California's San Joaquin Valley (SJV), an agricultural region that is heavily reliant on groundwater. We find evidence for a major mid-20th century shift in groundwater DIC input from mostly closed- to mostly open-system carbonate dissolution, which we suggest is driven by input of anthropogenic carbonate soil amendments. Crucially, enhanced open-system dissolution, in which DIC equilibrates with soil CO₂, fundamentally affects the initial ¹⁴C activity of recently recharged groundwater. Conventional ¹⁴C dating of deeper SJV groundwater, assuming an open system, substantially overestimates residence time and thereby underestimates susceptibility to modern contamination. Because carbonate soil amendments are ubiquitous, other groundwater-reliant agricultural regions may be similarly affected.

A slow rainy season onset is a reliable harbinger of drought in most food insecure regions in Sub-Saharan Africa

Since 2015, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has experienced an unprecedented rise in acute food insecurity (AFI), and current projections for the year 2020 indicate that more than 100 million Africans are estimated to receive emergency food assistance. Climate-driven drought is one of the main contributing factors to AFI, and timely and appropriate actions can be taken to mitigate impacts of AFI on lives and livelihoods through early warning systems. To support this goal, we use observations of peak Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as an indicator of seasonal drought conditions following a rainy season to show that delays in the onset of the rainy season (onset date) can be an effective early indicator of seasonal drought conditions. The core of this study is an evaluation of the relationship of the onset dates and peak NDVI, stratified by AFI risks, calculated using AFI reports by the United States Agency of International Development (USAID)-funded Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). Several parts of SSA, mostly located in East Africa (EA), reported the “Crisis” phase of AFI—requiring emergency food assistance—at least one-third of the time between April 2011 to present. The results show that the onset date can effectively explain much of the interannual variability in peak NDVI in the regions with the highest AFI risk level, particularly in EA where the median of correlation (across all the Administrative Unit 2) varies between -0.42 to -0.68. In general, an onset date delay of at least 1 dekad (10 days) increases the likelihood of seasonal drought conditions. In the regions with highest risks of AFI, an onset delay of just 1 dekad doubles the chance of the standardized anomaly of peak NDVI being below -1, making a -1 anomaly the most probable outcome. In those regions, a 2-dekads delay in the onset date is associated with a very high probability (50%) of seasonal drought conditions (-1 standardized anomaly of NDVI). Finally, a multivariate regression analysis between standardized anomaly and onset date anomaly further substantiates the negative impacts of delay in onset date on NDVI anomaly. This relationship is statistically significant over the SSA as a whole, particularly in the EA region. These results imply that the onset date can be used as an additional critical tool to provide alerts of seasonal drought development in the most food-insecure regions of SSA. Early warning systems using onset date as a tool can help trigger effective mid-season responses to save human lives, livestock, and livelihoods, and, therefore, mitigate the adverse impacts of drought hazards.

Habitat heterogeneity captured by 30-m resolution satellite image texture predicts bird richness across the United States

Species loss is occurring globally at unprecedented rates, and effective conservation planning requires an understanding of landscape characteristics that determine biodiversity patterns. Habitat heterogeneity is an important determinant of species diversity, but is difficult to measure across large areas using field-based methods that are costly and logistically challenging. Satellite image texture analysis offers a cost-effective alternative for quantifying habitat heterogeneity across broad spatial scales. We tested the ability of texture measures derived from 30-m resolution Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) data to capture habitat heterogeneity and predict bird species richness across the conterminous United States. We used Landsat 8 satellite imagery from 2013-2017 to derive a suite of texture measures characterizing vegetation heterogeneity. Individual texture measures explained up to 21% of the variance in bird richness patterns in North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data during the same time period. Texture measures were positively related to total breeding bird richness, but this relationship varied among forest, grassland, and shrubland habitat specialists. Multiple texture measures combined with mean EVI explained up to 41% of the variance in total bird richness, and models including EVI-based texture measures explained up to 10% more variance than those that included only EVI. Models that also incorporated topographic and land cover metrics further improved predictive performance, explaining up to 51% of the variance in total bird richness. A texture measure contributed predictive power and characterized landscape features that EVI and forest cover alone could not, even though the latter two were overall more important variables. Our results highlight the potential of texture measures for mapping habitat heterogeneity and species richness patterns across broad spatial extents, especially when used in conjunction with vegetation indices or land cover data. By generating 30-m resolution texture maps and modeling bird richness at a near-continental scale, we expand on previous applications of image texture measures for modeling biodiversity that were either limited in spatial extent or based on coarse-resolution imagery. Incorporating texture measures into broad-scale biodiversity models may advance our understanding of mechanisms underlying species richness patterns and improve predictions of species responses to rapid global change.

Characteristics of free air carbon dioxide enrichment of a northern temperate mature forest

In 2017, the Birmingham Institute of Forest Research (BIFoR) began to conduct Free Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment (FACE) within a mature broadleaf deciduous forest situated in the United Kingdom. BIFoR FACE employs large-scale infrastructure, in the form of lattice towers, forming 'arrays' which encircle a forest plot of ~30 m diameter. BIFoR FACE consists of three treatment arrays to elevate local CO₂ concentrations (e[CO₂ ]) by +150 µmol/mol. In practice, acceptable operational enrichment (ambient [CO₂ ] + e[CO₂ ]) is ±20% of the set point 1-min average target. There are a further three arrays that replicate the infrastructure and deliver ambient air as paired controls for the treatment arrays. For the first growing season with e[CO₂ ] (April to November 2017), [CO₂ ] measurements in treatment and control arrays show that the target concentration was successfully delivered, that is: +147 ± 21 µmol/mol (mean ± SD) or 98 ± 14% of set point enrichment target. e[CO₂ ] treatment was accomplished for 97.7% of the scheduled operation time, with the remaining time lost due to engineering faults (0.6% of the time), CO₂ supply issues (0.6%) or adverse weather conditions (1.1%). CO₂ demand in the facility was driven predominantly by wind speed and the formation of the deciduous canopy. Deviations greater than 10% from the ambient baseline CO₂ occurred <1% of the time in control arrays. Incidences of cross-contamination >80 µmol/mol (i.e. >53% of the treatment increment) into control arrays accounted for <0.1% of the enrichment period. The median [CO₂ ] values in reconstructed three-dimensional [CO₂ ] fields show enrichment somewhat lower than the target but still well above ambient. The data presented here provide confidence in the facility setup and can be used to guide future next-generation forest FACE facilities built into tall and complex forest stands.

Molecular sequencing and morphological identification reveal similar patterns in native bee communities across public and private grasslands of eastern North Dakota

Bees play a key role in the functioning of human-modified and natural ecosystems by pollinating agricultural crops and wild plant communities. Global pollinator conservation efforts need large-scale and long-term monitoring to detect changes in species’ demographic patterns and shifts in bee community structure. The objective of this project was to test a molecular sequencing pipeline that would utilize a commonly used locus, produce accurate and precise identifications consistent with morphological identifications, and generate data that are both qualitative and quantitative. We applied this amplicon sequencing pipeline to native bee communities sampled across Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) lands and native grasslands in eastern North Dakota. We found the 28S LSU locus to be more capable of discriminating between species than the 18S SSU rRNA locus, and in some cases even resolved instances of cryptic species or morphologically ambiguous species complexes. Overall, we found the amplicon sequencing method to be a qualitatively accurate representation of the sampled bee community richness and species identity, especially when a well-curated database of known 28S LSU sequences is available. Both morphological identification and molecular sequencing revealed similar patterns in native bee community structure across CRP lands and native prairie. Additionally, a genetic algorithm approach to compute taxon-specific correction factors using a small subset of the most concordant samples demonstrated that a high level of quantitative accuracy could be possible if the specimens are fresh and processed soon after collection. Here we provide a first step to a molecular pipeline for identifying insect pollinator communities. This tool should prove useful for future national monitoring efforts as use of molecular tools becomes more affordable and as numbers of 28S LSU sequences for pollinator species increase in publicly-available databases.

Streamflow contributions from tribal lands to major river basins of the United States

While many studies on tribal water resources of individual tribal lands in the United States (US) have been conducted, the importance of tribal water resources at a national scale has largely gone unrecognized because their combined totals have not been quantified. Thus, we sought to provide a numerical estimate of major water budget components on tribal lands within the conterminous US and on USGS hydrologic unit codes (HUC2) regions. Using existing national-scale data and models, we estimated mean annual precipitation, evapotranspiration, excess precipitation, streamflow, and water use for the period 1971–2000. Tribal lands represent about 3.4 percent of the total land area of the conterminous US and on average account for 1.9 percent of precipitation, 2.4 percent of actual evapotranspiration, 0.95 percent of excess precipitation, 1.6 percent of water use, and 0.43 percent of streamflow origination. Additionally, approximately 9.5 and 11.3 percent of US streamflow flows through or adjacent as boundaries to tribal lands, respectively. Streamflow through or adjacent to tribal lands accounts for 42 and 48 percent of streamflow in the Missouri region, respectively; and for 86 and 88 percent in the Lower Colorado region, respectively. On average, 5,600 million cubic meters of streamflow per year was produced on tribal lands in the Pacific Northwest region, nearly five times greater than tribal lands in any other region. Tribal lands in the Great Lakes, Missouri, Arkansas-White-Red, and California regions all produced between 1,000 and 1,400 million cubic meters per year.

Aging infrastructure creates opportunities for cost-efficient restoration of aquatic ecosystem connectivity

A hallmark of industrialization is the construction of dams for water management and roads for transportation, leading to fragmentation of aquatic ecosystems. Many nations are striving to address both maintenance backlogs and mitigation of environmental impacts as their infrastructure ages. Here, we test whether accounting for road repair needs could offer opportunities to boost conservation efficiency by piggybacking connectivity restoration projects on infrastructure maintenance. Using optimization models to align fish passage restoration sites with likely road repair priorities, we find potential increases in conservation return-on-investment ranging from 17% to 25%. Importantly, these gains occur without compromising infrastructure or conservation priorities; simply communicating openly about objectives and candidate sites enables greater accomplishment at current funding levels. Society embraces both reliable roads and thriving fisheries, so overcoming this coordination challenge should be feasible. Given deferred maintenance crises for many types of infrastructure, there could be widespread opportunities to enhance the cost effectiveness of conservation investments by coordinating with infrastructure renewal efforts.

A physics-based earthquake simulator replicates seismic hazard statistics across California

Seismic hazard models are important for society, feeding into building codes and hazard mitigation efforts. These models, however, rest on many uncertain assumptions and are difficult to test observationally because of the long recurrence times of large earthquakes. Physics-based earthquake simulators offer a potentially helpful tool, but they face a vast range of fundamental scientific uncertainties. We compare a physics-based earthquake simulator against the latest seismic hazard model for California. Using only uniform parameters in the simulator, we find strikingly good agreement of the long-term shaking hazard compared with the California model. This ability to replicate statistically based seismic hazard estimates by a physics-based model cross-validates standard methods and provides a new alternative approach needing fewer inputs and assumptions for estimating hazard.

Getting ahead of the curve: cities as surrogates for global change

Urbanization represents an unintentional global experiment that can provide insights into how species will respond and interact under future global change scenarios. Cities produce many conditions that are predicted to occur widely in the future, such as warmer temperatures, higher carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and exacerbated droughts. In using cities as surrogates for global change, it is challenging to disentangle climate variables-such as temperature-from co-occurring or confounding urban variables-such as impervious surface-and then to understand the interactive effects of multiple climate variables on both individual species and species interactions. However, such interactions are also difficult to replicate experimentally, and thus the challenges of cities are also their unique advantage. Here, we review insights gained from cities, with a focus on plants and arthropods, and how urban findings agree or disagree with experimental predictions and historical data. We discuss the types of hypotheses that can be best tested in cities, caveats to urban research and how to further validate cities as surrogates for global change. Lastly, we summarize how to achieve the goal of using urban species responses to predict broader regional- and ecosystem-level patterns in the future.

Influenza A virus recovery, diversity, and intercontinental exchange: A multi-year assessment of wild bird sampling at Izembek National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska

Western Alaska is a potential point-of-entry for foreign-origin influenza A viruses (IAVs) into North America via migratory birds. We sampled waterfowl and gulls for IAVs at Izembek National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) in western Alaska, USA, during late summer and autumn months of 2011-2015, to evaluate the abundance and diversity of viruses at this site. We collected 4842 samples across five years from 25 species of wild birds resulting in the recovery, isolation, and sequencing of 172 IAVs. With the intent of optimizing sampling efficiencies, we used information derived from this multi-year effort to: 1) evaluate from which species we consistently recover viruses, 2) describe viral subtypes of isolates by host species and year, 3) characterize viral gene segment sequence diversity with respect to host species, and assess potential differences in the viral lineages among the host groups, and 4) examine how evidence of intercontinental exchange of IAVs relates to host species. We consistently recovered viruses from dabbling ducks (Anas spp.), emperor geese (Chen canagica) and glaucous-winged gulls (Larus glaucescens). There was little evidence for differences in viral subtypes and diversity from different waterfowl hosts, however subtypes and viral diversity varied between waterfowl host groups and glaucous-winged gulls. Furthermore, higher proportions of viral sequences from northern pintails (Anas acuta), emperor geese and glaucous-winged gulls were grouped in phylogenetic clades that included IAV sequences originating from wild birds sampled in Asia as compared to non-pintail dabbling ducks, a difference that may be related to intercontinental migratory tendencies of host species. Our summary of research and surveillance efforts at Izembek NWR will assist in future prioritization of which hosts to sample and swab types to collect in Alaska and elsewhere in order to maximize isolate recovery, subtype and sequence diversity for resultant viruses, and detection of evidence for intercontinental viral exchange.

Foraging and metabolic consequences of semi-anadromy for an endangered estuarine fish

Diadromy affords fish access to productive ecosystems, increasing growth and ultimately fitness, but it is unclear whether these advantages persist for species migrating within highly altered habitat. Here, we compared the foraging success of wild Delta Smelt—an endangered, zooplanktivorous, annual, semi-anadromous fish that is endemic to the highly altered San Francisco Estuary (SFE)—collected from freshwater (<0.55 psu) and brackish habitat (≥0.55 psu). Stomach fullness, averaged across three generations of wild Delta Smelt sampled from juvenile through adult life stages (n = 1,318), was 1.5-fold higher in brackish than in freshwater habitat. However, salinity and season interacted, with higher fullness (1.7-fold) in freshwater than in brackish habitat in summer, but far higher fullness in brackish than freshwater habitat during fall/winter and winter/spring (1.8 and 2.0-fold, respectively). To examine potential causes of this interaction we compared mesozooplankton abundance, collected concurrently with the Delta Smelt, in freshwater and brackish habitat during summer and fall/winter, and the metabolic rate of sub-adult Delta Smelt acclimated to salinities of 0.4, 2.0, and 12.0 psu in a laboratory experiment. A seasonal peak in mesozooplankton density coincided with the summer peak in Delta Smelt foraging success in freshwater, and a pronounced decline in freshwater mesozooplankton abundance in the fall coincided with declining stomach fullness, which persisted for the remainder of the year (fall, winter and spring). In brackish habitat, greater foraging ‘efficiency’ (prey items in stomachs/mesozooplankton abundance) led to more prey items per fish and generally higher stomach fullness (i.e., a higher proportion of mesozooplankton detected in concurrent trawls were eaten by fish in brackish habitat). Delta Smelt exhibited no difference in metabolic rate across the three salinities, indicating that metabolic responses to salinity are unlikely to have caused the stomach fullness results. Adult migration and freshwater spawning therefore places young fish in a position to exploit higher densities of prey in freshwater in the late spring/summer, and subsequent movement downstream provides older fish more accessible prey in brackish habitat. Thus, despite endemism to a highly-altered estuary, semi-anadromy provided substantial foraging benefits to Delta Smelt, consistent with other temperate migratory fish.