Spatial prey availability and pulsed reproductive tactics: Encounter risk in a canid-ungulate system

Predation risk is a function of spatiotemporal overlap between predator and prey, as well as behavioural responses during encounters. Dynamic factors (e.g. group size, prey availability and animal movement or state) affect risk, but rarely are integrated in risk assessments. Our work targets a system where predation risk is fundamentally linked to temporal patterns in prey abundance and behaviour. For neonatal ungulate prey, risk is defined within a short temporal window during which the pulse in parturition, increasing movement capacity with age and antipredation tactics have the potential to mediate risk. In our coyote-mule deer (Canis latrans-Odocoileus hemionus) system, leveraging GPS data collected from both predator and prey, we tested expectations of shared enemy and reproductive risk hypotheses. We asked two questions regarding risk: (A) How does primary and alternative prey habitat, predator and prey activity, and reproductive tactics (e.g. birth synchrony and maternal defence) influence the vulnerability of a neonate encountering a predator? (B) How do the same factors affect behaviour by predators relative to the time before and after an encounter? Despite increased selection for mule deer and intensified search behaviour by coyotes during the peak in mule deer parturition, mule deer were afforded protection from predation via predator swamping, experiencing reduced per-capita encounter risk when most neonates were born. Mule deer occupying rabbit habitat (Sylvilagus spp.; coyote's primary prey) experienced the greatest risk of encounter but the availability of rabbit habitat did not affect predator behaviour during encounters. Encounter risk increased in areas with greater availability of mule deer habitat: coyotes shifted their behaviour relative to deer habitat, and the pulse in mule deer parturition and movement of neonatal deer during encounters elicited increased speed and tortuosity by coyotes. In addition to the spatial distribution of prey, temporal patterns in prey availability and animal behavioural state were fundamental in defining risk. Our work reveals the nuanced consequences of pulsed availability on predation risk for alternative prey, whereby responses by predators to sudden resource availability, the lasting effects of diversionary prey and inherent antipredation tactics ultimately dictate risk.

A test of the frost wave hypothesis in a temperate ungulate

Growing evidence supports the hypothesis that temperate herbivores surf the green wave of emerging plants during spring migration. Despite the importance of autumn migration, few studies have conceptualized resource tracking of temperate herbivores during this critical season. We adapted the frost wave hypothesis (FWH), which posits that animals pace their autumn migration to reduce exposure to snow but increase acquisition of forage. We tested the FWH in a population of mule deer in Wyoming, USA by tracking the autumn migrations of n = 163 mule deer that moved 15-288 km from summer to winter range. Migrating deer experienced similar amounts of snow but 1.4-2.1 times more residual forage than if they had naïve knowledge of when or how fast to migrate. Importantly, deer balanced exposure to snow and forage in a spatial manner. At the fine scale, deer avoided snow near their mountainous summer ranges and became more risk prone to snow near winter range. Aligning with their higher tolerance of snow and lingering behavior to acquire residual forage, deer increased stopover use by 1 ± 1 day (95% CI) day for every 10% of their migration completed. Our findings support the prediction that mule deer pace their autumn migration with the onset of snow and residual forage, but refine the FWH to include movement behavior en route that is spatially dynamic.

Parallel shifts in trout feeding morphology suggest rapid adaptation to alpine lake environments

Eco-evolutionary interactions following ecosystem change provide critical insight into the ability of organisms to adapt to shifting resource landscapes. Here we explore evidence for the rapid parallel evolution of trout feeding morphology following eco-evolutionary interactions with zooplankton in alpine lakes stocked at different points in time in the Wind River Range (Wyoming, USA). In this system, trout predation has altered the zooplankton species community and driven a decrease in average zooplankton size. In some lakes that were stocked decades ago, we find shifts in gill raker traits consistent with the hypothesis that trout have rapidly adapted to exploit available smaller-bodied zooplankton more effectively. We explore this morphological response in multiple lake populations across two species of trout (cutthroat trout, Oncorhynchus clarkii, and golden trout Oncorhynchus aguabonita) and examine the impact of resource availability on morphological variation in gill raker number among lakes. Furthermore, we present genetic data to provide evidence that historically stocked cutthroat trout populations likely derive from multiple population sources, and incorporate variation from genomic relatedness in our exploration of environmental predictors of feeding morphology. These findings describe rapid adaptation and eco-evolutionary interactions in trout and document an evolutionary response to novel, contemporary ecosystem change.

Drought reshuffles plant phenology and reduces the foraging benefit of green-wave surfing for a migratory ungulate

To increase resource gain, many herbivores pace their migration with the flush of nutritious plant green-up that progresses across the landscape (termed "green-wave surfing"). Despite concerns about the effects of climate change on migratory species and the critical role of plant phenology in mediating the ability of ungulates to surf, little is known about how drought shapes the green wave and influences the foraging benefits of migration. With a 19 year dataset on drought and plant phenology across 99 unique migratory routes of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in western Wyoming, United States, we show that drought shortened the duration of spring green-up by approximately twofold (2.5 weeks) and resulted in less sequential green-up along migratory routes. We investigated the possibility that some routes were buffered from the effects of drought (i.e., routes that maintained long green-up duration irrespective of drought intensity). We found no evidence of drought-buffered routes. Instead, routes with the longest green-up in non-drought years also were the most affected by drought. Despite phenological changes along the migratory route, mule deer closely followed drought-altered green waves during migration. Migrating deer did not experience a trophic mismatch with the green wave during drought. Instead, the shorter window of green-up caused by drought reduced the opportunity to accumulate forage resources during rapid spring migrations. Our work highlights the synchronization of phenological events as an important mechanism by which climate change can negatively affect migratory species by reducing the temporal availability of key food resources. For migratory herbivores, climate change poses a new and growing threat by altering resource phenology and diminishing the foraging benefit of migration.

A statistically rigorous sampling design to integrate avian monitoring and management within Bird Conservation Regions

Monitoring is an essential component of wildlife management and conservation. However, the usefulness of monitoring data is often undermined by the lack of 1) coordination across organizations and regions, 2) meaningful management and conservation objectives, and 3) rigorous sampling designs. Although many improvements to avian monitoring have been discussed, the recommendations have been slow to emerge in large-scale programs. We introduce the Integrated Monitoring in Bird Conservation Regions (IMBCR) program designed to overcome the above limitations. Our objectives are to outline the development of a statistically defensible sampling design to increase the value of large-scale monitoring data and provide example applications to demonstrate the ability of the design to meet multiple conservation and management objectives. We outline the sampling process for the IMBCR program with a focus on the Badlands and Prairies Bird Conservation Region (BCR 17). We provide two examples for the Brewer's sparrow (Spizella breweri) in BCR 17 demonstrating the ability of the design to 1) determine hierarchical population responses to landscape change and 2) estimate hierarchical habitat relationships to predict the response of the Brewer's sparrow to conservation efforts at multiple spatial scales. The collaboration across organizations and regions provided economy of scale by leveraging a common data platform over large spatial scales to promote the efficient use of monitoring resources. We designed the IMBCR program to address the information needs and core conservation and management objectives of the participating partner organizations. Although it has been argued that probabilistic sampling designs are not practical for large-scale monitoring, the IMBCR program provides a precedent for implementing a statistically defensible sampling design from local to bioregional scales. We demonstrate that integrating conservation and management objectives with rigorous statistical design and analyses ensures reliable knowledge about bird populations that is relevant and integral to bird conservation at multiple scales.

Endemic chronic wasting disease causes mule deer population decline in Wyoming

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy affecting white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni), and moose (Alces alces shirasi) in North America. In southeastern Wyoming average annual CWD prevalence in mule deer exceeds 20% and appears to contribute to regional population declines. We determined the effect of CWD on mule deer demography using age-specific, female-only, CWD transition matrix models to estimate the population growth rate (λ). Mule deer were captured from 2010-2014 in southern Converse County Wyoming, USA. Captured adult (≥ 1.5 years old) deer were tested ante-mortem for CWD using tonsil biopsies and monitored using radio telemetry. Mean annual survival rates of CWD-negative and CWD-positive deer were 0.76 and 0.32, respectively. Pregnancy and fawn recruitment were not observed to be influenced by CWD. We estimated λ = 0.79, indicating an annual population decline of 21% under current CWD prevalence levels. A model derived from the demography of only CWD-negative individuals yielded; λ = 1.00, indicating a stable population if CWD were absent. These findings support CWD as a significant contributor to mule deer population decline. Chronic wasting disease is difficult or impossible to eradicate with current tools, given significant environmental contamination, and at present our best recommendation for control of this disease is to minimize spread to new areas and naïve cervid populations.