Spatial prey availability and pulsed reproductive tactics: Encounter risk in a canid-ungulate system

Predation risk is a function of spatiotemporal overlap between predator and prey, as well as behavioural responses during encounters. Dynamic factors (e.g. group size, prey availability and animal movement or state) affect risk, but rarely are integrated in risk assessments. Our work targets a system where predation risk is fundamentally linked to temporal patterns in prey abundance and behaviour. For neonatal ungulate prey, risk is defined within a short temporal window during which the pulse in parturition, increasing movement capacity with age and antipredation tactics have the potential to mediate risk. In our coyote-mule deer (Canis latrans-Odocoileus hemionus) system, leveraging GPS data collected from both predator and prey, we tested expectations of shared enemy and reproductive risk hypotheses. We asked two questions regarding risk: (A) How does primary and alternative prey habitat, predator and prey activity, and reproductive tactics (e.g. birth synchrony and maternal defence) influence the vulnerability of a neonate encountering a predator? (B) How do the same factors affect behaviour by predators relative to the time before and after an encounter? Despite increased selection for mule deer and intensified search behaviour by coyotes during the peak in mule deer parturition, mule deer were afforded protection from predation via predator swamping, experiencing reduced per-capita encounter risk when most neonates were born. Mule deer occupying rabbit habitat (Sylvilagus spp.; coyote's primary prey) experienced the greatest risk of encounter but the availability of rabbit habitat did not affect predator behaviour during encounters. Encounter risk increased in areas with greater availability of mule deer habitat: coyotes shifted their behaviour relative to deer habitat, and the pulse in mule deer parturition and movement of neonatal deer during encounters elicited increased speed and tortuosity by coyotes. In addition to the spatial distribution of prey, temporal patterns in prey availability and animal behavioural state were fundamental in defining risk. Our work reveals the nuanced consequences of pulsed availability on predation risk for alternative prey, whereby responses by predators to sudden resource availability, the lasting effects of diversionary prey and inherent antipredation tactics ultimately dictate risk.

Influence of environmental change, harvest exposure, and human disturbance on population trends of greater sage-grouse

Hunter harvest of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereafter “sage-grouse”) has been regulated by wildlife agencies during most of the past century. Hunting season regulations were maintained with the intention of providing sustainable hunting opportunities. Sage-grouse populations oscillate over time, and population growth can be influenced by seasonal weather and habitat disturbance. From 1995–2013, we compared sage-grouse lek trends from 22 relatively distinct sage-grouse population segments in 9 western U.S. states and 2 Canadian provinces. We stratified these populations into 3 broad categories (non-hunted [n = 8], continuously hunted [n = 10], and hunting season discontinued between 1996–2003 [n = 4]) with 8 different regulation histories to evaluate the potential impact of harvest on sage-grouse populations. Concomitantly, we assessed the effects of proportion burned, forested and cropland habitat; winter, spring, and summer precipitation; and human population, road, and oil and gas well densities on initial and time-varying lek counts. Density-dependent models fit lek trend data best for all regulation histories. In general, higher proportions of burnt, forested, and cropland habitat; and greater human population and oil and gas well densities were associated with lower equilibrium abundance (K). We found mixed results regarding the effect of hunting regulations on instantaneous growth rate (r). The cessation of harvest from 1996–2001 in approximately half of the largest sage-grouse population in our analysis was associated with higher r. Continuously harvested sage-grouse populations with permit hunting seasons had higher r during years with higher proportion of area exposed to permitted hunting rather than general upland game seasons. However, more liberal hunting regulations were positively associated with higher r in populations continuously harvested under general upland game hunts. Our results suggest that discontinuing harvest in the largest population resulted in greater population growth rates; however, this was not consistently the case for smaller populations. To no surprise, not all sage-grouse populations were influenced by the same environmental change or human disturbance factors. Our results will assist managers to understand factors associated with K, which provides the best targets for conservation efforts.

Drought reshuffles plant phenology and reduces the foraging benefit of green-wave surfing for a migratory ungulate

To increase resource gain, many herbivores pace their migration with the flush of nutritious plant green-up that progresses across the landscape (termed "green-wave surfing"). Despite concerns about the effects of climate change on migratory species and the critical role of plant phenology in mediating the ability of ungulates to surf, little is known about how drought shapes the green wave and influences the foraging benefits of migration. With a 19 year dataset on drought and plant phenology across 99 unique migratory routes of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in western Wyoming, United States, we show that drought shortened the duration of spring green-up by approximately twofold (2.5 weeks) and resulted in less sequential green-up along migratory routes. We investigated the possibility that some routes were buffered from the effects of drought (i.e., routes that maintained long green-up duration irrespective of drought intensity). We found no evidence of drought-buffered routes. Instead, routes with the longest green-up in non-drought years also were the most affected by drought. Despite phenological changes along the migratory route, mule deer closely followed drought-altered green waves during migration. Migrating deer did not experience a trophic mismatch with the green wave during drought. Instead, the shorter window of green-up caused by drought reduced the opportunity to accumulate forage resources during rapid spring migrations. Our work highlights the synchronization of phenological events as an important mechanism by which climate change can negatively affect migratory species by reducing the temporal availability of key food resources. For migratory herbivores, climate change poses a new and growing threat by altering resource phenology and diminishing the foraging benefit of migration.