Linking Spontaneous Behavioral Changes to Disease Transmission Dynamics: Behavior Change Includes Periodic Oscillation

Behavior change significantly influences the transmission of diseases during outbreaks. To incorporate spontaneous preventive measures, we propose a model that integrates behavior change with disease transmission. The model represents behavior change through an imitation process, wherein players exclusively adopt the behavior associated with higher payoff. We find that relying solely on spontaneous behavior change is insufficient for eradicating the disease. The dynamics of behavior change are contingent on the basic reproduction number R a corresponding to the scenario where all players adopt non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). WhenR a < 1 , partial adherence to NPIs remains consistently feasible. We can ensure that the disease stays at a low level or maintains minor fluctuations around a lower value by increasing sensitivity to perceived infection. In cases where oscillations occur, a further reduction in the maximum prevalence of infection over a cycle can be achieved by increasing the rate of behavior change. WhenR a > 1 , almost all players consistently adopt NPIs if they are highly sensitive to perceived infection. Further consideration of saturated recovery leads to saddle-node homoclinic and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcations, emphasizing the adverse impact of limited medical resources on controlling the scale of infection. Finally, we parameterize our model with COVID-19 data and Tokyo subway ridership, enabling us to illustrate the disease spread co-evolving with behavior change dynamics. We further demonstrate that an increase in sensitivity to perceived infection can accelerate the peak time and reduce the peak size of infection prevalence in the initial wave.

Effects of whaling and krill fishing on the whale-krill predation dynamics: bifurcations in a harvested predator-prey model with Holling type I functional response

In the Antarctic, the whale population had been reduced dramatically due to the unregulated whaling. It was expected that Antarctic krill, the main prey of whales, would grow significantly as a consequence and exploratory krill fishing was practiced in some areas. However, it was found that there has been a substantial decline in abundance of krill since the end of whaling, which is the phenomenon of krill paradox. In this paper, to study the krill-whale interaction we revisit a harvested predator-prey model with Holling I functional response. We find that the model admits at most two positive equilibria. When the two positive equilibria are located in the region{ ( N , P ) | 0 ≤ N < 2 N c , P ≥ 0 } , the model exhibits degenerate Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation with codimension up to 3 and Hopf bifurcation with codimension up to 2 by rigorous bifurcation analysis. When the two positive equilibria are located in the region{ ( N , P ) | N > 2 N c , P ≥ 0 } , the model has no complex bifurcation phenomenon. When there is one positive equilibrium on each side of N = 2 N c , the model undergoes Hopf bifurcation with codimension up to 2. Moreover, numerical simulation reveals that the model not only can exhibit the krill paradox phenomenon but also has three limit cycles, with the outmost one crosses the line N = 2 N c under some specific parameter conditions.

Complex dynamics of a predator-prey model with opportunistic predator and weak Allee effect in prey

In this work, we first modify a Lotka-Volterra predator-prey system to incorporate an opportunistic predator and weak Allee effect in prey. The prey will be extinct if the combined effect of hunting and other food resources of predator is large. Otherwise, the dynamic behaviour of the system is extremely rich. A series of bifurcations such as saddle-node bifurcation, Hopf bifurcation, and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation can happen. The validity of the theoretical results are supported with numerical simulations.

Cannibalistic enemy-pest model: effect of additional food and harvesting

Biological control using natural enemies with additional food resources is one of the most adopted and ecofriendly pest control techniques. Moreover, additional food is also provided to natural enemies to divert them from cannibalism. In the present work, using the theory of dynamical system, we discuss the dynamics of a cannibalistic predator prey model in the presence of different harvesting schemes in prey (pest) population and provision of additional food to predators (natural enemies). A detailed mathematical analysis and numerical evaluations have been presented to discuss the pest free state, coexistence of species, stability, occurrence of different bifurcations (saddle-node, transcritical, Hopf, Bogdanov-Takens) and the impact of additional food and harvesting schemes on the dynamics of the system. It has been obtained that the multiple coexisting equilibria and their stability depend on the additional food (quality and quantity) and harvesting rates. Interestingly, we also observe that the pest population density decreases immediately even when small amount of harvesting is implemented. Also the eradication of pest population (stable pest free state) could be achieved via variation in the additional food and implemented harvesting schemes. The individual effects of harvesting parameters on the pest density suggest that the linear harvesting scheme is more effective to control the pest population rather than constant and nonlinear harvesting schemes. In the context of biological control programs, the present theoretical work suggests different threshold values of implemented harvesting and appropriate choices of additional food to be supplied for pest eradication.

Imperfect and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcations in biological models: from harvesting of species to isolation of infectives

A natural biological system under human interventions may exhibit complex dynamical behaviors which could lead to either the collapse or stabilization of the system. The bifurcation theory plays an important role in understanding this evolution process by modeling and analyzing the biological system. In this paper, we examine two types of biological models that Fred Brauer made pioneer contributions: predator-prey models with stocking/harvesting and epidemic models with importation/isolation. First we consider the predator-prey model with Holling type II functional response whose dynamics and bifurcations are well-understood. By considering human interventions such as constant harvesting or stocking of predators, we show that the system under human interventions undergoes imperfect bifurcation and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation, which induces much richer dynamical behaviors such as the existence of limit cycles or homoclinic loops. Then we consider an epidemic model with constant importation/isolation of infective individuals and observe similar imperfect and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcations when the constant importation/isolation rate varies.

Relative prevalence-based dispersal in an epidemic patch model

In this paper, we propose a two-patch SIRS model with a nonlinear incidence rate: [Formula: see text] and nonconstant dispersal rates, where the dispersal rates of susceptible and recovered individuals depend on the relative disease prevalence in two patches. In an isolated environment, the model admits Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation of codimension 3 (cusp case) and Hopf bifurcation of codimension up to 2 as the parameters vary, and exhibits rich dynamics such as multiple coexistent steady states and periodic orbits, homoclinic orbits and multitype bistability. The long-term dynamics can be classified in terms of the infection rates [Formula: see text] (due to single contact) and [Formula: see text] (due to double exposures). In a connected environment, we establish a threshold [Formula: see text] between disease extinction and uniform persistence under certain conditions. We numerically explore the effect of population dispersal on disease spread when [Formula: see text] and patch 1 has a lower infection rate, our results indicate: (i) [Formula: see text] can be nonmonotonic in dispersal rates and [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text] is the basic reproduction number of patch i) may fail; (ii) the constant dispersal of susceptible individuals (or infective individuals) between two patches (or from patch 2 to patch 1) will increase (or reduce) the overall disease prevalence; (iii) the relative prevalence-based dispersal may reduce the overall disease prevalence. When [Formula: see text] and the disease outbreaks periodically in each isolated patch, we find that: (a) small unidirectional and constant dispersal can lead to complex periodic patterns like relaxation oscillations or mixed-mode oscillations, whereas large ones can make the disease go extinct in one patch and persist in the form of a positive steady state or a periodic solution in the other patch; (b) relative prevalence-based and unidirectional dispersal can make periodic outbreak earlier.

Complex dynamics and control analysis of an epidemic model with non-monotone incidence and saturated treatment

In this manuscript, we consider an epidemic model having constant recruitment of susceptible individuals with non-monotone disease transmission rate and saturated-type treatment rate. Two types of disease control strategies are taken here, namely vaccination for susceptible individuals and treatment for infected individuals to minimize the impact of the disease. We study local as well as global stability analysis of the disease-free equilibrium point and also endemic equilibrium point based on the values of basic reproduction number R 0 . Therefore, disease eradicates from the population if basic reproduction number less than unity and disease persists in the population if basic reproduction number greater than unity. We use center manifold theorem to study the dynamical behavior of the disease-free equilibrium point for R 0 = 1 . We investigate different bifurcations such as transcritical bifurcation, backward bifurcation, saddle-node bifurcation, Hopf bifurcation and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation of co-dimension 2. The biological significance of all types of bifurcations are described. Some numerical simulations are performed to check the reliability of our theoretical approach. Sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the influential model parameters which have most impact on the basic reproduction number of the proposed model. To control or eradicate the influence of the emerging disease, we need to control the most sensitive model parameters using necessary preventive measures. We study optimal control problem using Pontryagin's maximum principle. Finally using efficiency analysis, we determine most effective control strategy among applied controls.

A delay model for persistent viral infections in replicating cells

Persistently infecting viruses remain within infected cells for a prolonged period of time without killing the cells and can reproduce via budding virus particles or passing on to daughter cells after division. The ability for populations of infected cells to be long-lived and replicate viral progeny through cell division may be critical for virus survival in examples such as HIV latent reservoirs, tumor oncolytic virotherapy, and non-virulent phages in microbial hosts. We consider a model for persistent viral infection within a replicating cell population with time delay in the eclipse stage prior to infected cell replicative form. We obtain reproduction numbers that provide criteria for the existence and stability of the equilibria of the system and provide bifurcation diagrams illustrating transcritical (backward and forward), saddle-node, and Hopf bifurcations, and provide evidence of homoclinic bifurcations and a Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation. We investigate the possibility of long term survival of the infection (represented by chronically infected cells and free virus) in the cell population by using the mathematical concept of robust uniform persistence. Using numerical continuation software with parameter values estimated from phage-microbe systems, we obtain two parameter bifurcation diagrams that divide parameter space into regions with different dynamical outcomes. We thus investigate how varying different parameters, including how the time spent in the eclipse phase, can influence whether or not the virus survives.

M-current induced Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation and switching of neuron excitability class

In this work, we consider a general conductance-based neuron model with the inclusion of the acetycholine sensitive, M-current. We study bifurcations in the parameter space consisting of the applied current [Formula: see text], the maximal conductance of the M-current [Formula: see text] and the conductance of the leak current [Formula: see text]. We give precise conditions for the model that ensure the existence of a Bogdanov-Takens (BT) point and show that such a point can occur by varying [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]. We discuss the case when the BT point becomes a Bogdanov-Takens-cusp (BTC) point and show that such a point can occur in the three-dimensional parameter space. The results of the bifurcation analysis are applied to different neuronal models and are verified and supplemented by numerical bifurcation diagrams generated using the package MATCONT. We conclude that there is a transition in the neuronal excitability type organised by the BT point and the neuron switches from Class-I to Class-II as conductance of the M-current increases.

Modeling and Dynamics Analysis of Zika Transmission with Limited Medical Resources

Zika virus, a reemerging mosquito-borne flavivirus, posed a global public health emergency in 2016. Brazil is the most seriously affected country. Some measures have been implemented to control the Zika transmission, such as spraying mosquitoes, developing vaccines and drugs. However, because of the limited medical resources (LMRs) in the country, not every infected patient can be treated in time when infected with Zika virus. We aim to build a deterministic Zika model by introducing a piecewise smooth treatment recovery rate to research the effect of LMRs on the transmission and control of Zika. For the model without treatment, we analyze the global stability of equilibria. For the model with treatment, the model exhibits complex dynamics. We prove that the model with treatment undergoes backward bifurcation, Hopf bifurcation and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation of codimension 2. It means that the model with LMRs is sensitive to parameters and initial conditions, which has important significance for control of Zika. We also apply the model to estimate the basic and control reproduction numbers for the Zika transmission by using the data on weekly reported accumulated Zika cases from March 25, 2016, to April 14, 2018, in Brazil.

Wilson-Cowan Equations for Neocortical Dynamics

In 1972-1973 Wilson and Cowan introduced a mathematical model of the population dynamics of synaptically coupled excitatory and inhibitory neurons in the neocortex. The model dealt only with the mean numbers of activated and quiescent excitatory and inhibitory neurons, and said nothing about fluctuations and correlations of such activity. However, in 1997 Ohira and Cowan, and then in 2007-2009 Buice and Cowan introduced Markov models of such activity that included fluctuation and correlation effects. Here we show how both models can be used to provide a quantitative account of the population dynamics of neocortical activity.We first describe how the Markov models account for many recent measurements of the resting or spontaneous activity of the neocortex. In particular we show that the power spectrum of large-scale neocortical activity has a Brownian motion baseline, and that the statistical structure of the random bursts of spiking activity found near the resting state indicates that such a state can be represented as a percolation process on a random graph, called directed percolation.Other data indicate that resting cortex exhibits pair correlations between neighboring populations of cells, the amplitudes of which decay slowly with distance, whereas stimulated cortex exhibits pair correlations which decay rapidly with distance. Here we show how the Markov model can account for the behavior of the pair correlations.Finally we show how the 1972-1973 Wilson-Cowan equations can account for recent data which indicates that there are at least two distinct modes of cortical responses to stimuli. In mode 1 a low intensity stimulus triggers a wave that propagates at a velocity of about 0.3 m/s, with an amplitude that decays exponentially. In mode 2 a high intensity stimulus triggers a larger response that remains local and does not propagate to neighboring regions.

High codimensional bifurcation analysis to a six-neuron BAM neural network

In this article, the high codimension bifurcations of a six-neuron BAM neural network system with multiple delays are addressed. We first deduce the existence conditions under which the origin of the system is a Bogdanov-Takens singularity with multiplicities two or three. By choosing the connection coefficients as bifurcation parameters and using the formula derived from the normal form theory and the center manifold, the normal forms of Bogdanov-Takens and triple zero bifurcations are presented. Some numerical examples are shown to support our main results.

Evolution of pathogen virulence under selective predation: a construction method to find eco-evolutionary cycles

We investigate eco-evolutionary cycles in the joint dynamics of pathogen virulence and predator population density when hosts carrying virulent infections are exposed to increased risk of predation. We introduce a new technique to find trade-off functions under which the model exhibits limit cycles; this technique provides a constructive proof that the system is able to generate limit cycles, and can be applied to other eco-evolutionary models as well. We also study a concrete example to confirm that eco-evolutionary cycles occur in a significant part of the parameter space and to briefly explore other evolutionary outcomes in the same model.