Trends and projections of cause-specific premature mortality in Australia to 2044: a statistical modelling study

Background

Long-term projections of premature mortality (defined as deaths age <75 years) help to inform decisions about public health priorities. This study aimed to project premature mortality rates in Australia to 2044, and to estimate numbers of deaths and potential years of life lost (PYLL) due to premature mortality overall and for 59 causes.

Methods

We examined the past trends in premature mortality rates using Australian mortality data by sex, 5-year age group and 5-year calendar period up to 2019. Cigarette smoking exposure data (1945-2019) were included to project lung cancer mortality. Age-period-cohort or generalised linear models were developed and validated for each cause to project premature mortality rates to 2044.

Findings

Over the 25-year period from 1990-1994 to 2015-2019, there was a 44.4% decrease in the overall age-standardised premature mortality rate. This decline is expected to continue, from 162.4 deaths/100,000 population in 2015-2019 to 141.7/100,000 in 2040-2044 (12.7% decrease). Despite declining rates, total numbers of premature deaths are projected to increase by 22.8%, rising from 272,815 deaths in 2015-2019 to 334,894 deaths in 2040-2044. This is expected to result in 1.58 million premature deaths over the 25-year period 2020-2044, accounting for 24.5 million PYLL. Of the high-level cause categories, cancer is projected to remain the most common cause of premature death in Australia by 2044, followed by cardiovascular disease, external causes (including injury, poisoning, and suicide), and respiratory diseases.

Interpretation

Despite continuously declining overall premature mortality rates, the total number of premature deaths in Australia is projected to remain substantial, and cancer will continue to be the leading cause. These projections can inform the targeting of public health efforts and can serve as benchmarks against which to measure the impact of future interventions. They emphasise the ongoing importance of accelerating the prevention, early detection, and treatment of key health conditions.

Funding

No funding was provided for this study.

Farmers' perception of the ecosystem services provided by diurnal raptors in arid Rajasthan

Farmers are the most important stakeholders in wildlife conservation in the agricultural landscape. Understanding the farmer's perceptions, attitude, behaviour, and knowledge toward conservation is critical in developing an effective conservation programme in human-dominated landscapes. We conducted semi-structured face-to-face interviews with 373 farmers to understand the farmer's perception of ecosystem services provided by diurnal raptors in the arid region of Rajasthan from July 2020 to February 2021 and from August 2021 to January 2022. We grouped ecosystem services and disservices into larger categories and estimated the correlation between them, finding that disservices are negatively correlated with benefits. Raptors were perceived as beneficial for their role in controlling rodents and pests, but negatively for poultry predation. In addition, we built a binomial generalised linear model with a logit function to better understand the factors that influence farmers' perceptions of raptors (positive or negative). We observed that males and females have different attitudes toward the ecosystem services provided by raptors. It is critical to understand social perceptions in order to conserve species that are rare on a global scale but may face negative perceptions on a local scale. Our study connects ecological information with socio-demographic factors, which can be useful in developing policy measures for raptor conservation.

Modelling success after perinatal post-haemorrhagic hydrocephalus: a single-centre study

INTRODUCTION

Post-haemorrhagic hydrocephalus is common amongst premature infants and one of the leading indications for paediatric cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) diversion. Permanent CSF diversion is often delayed until the infant is older but there is no clear consensus on the timing for this. The outcomes for permanent shunting in this patient group are poor, with higher rates of failure and infection compared to other aetiologies of hydrocephalus.

METHODS

We conduct a single-centre retrospective review of infants with post-haemorrhagic hydrocephalus requiring a permanent shunt insertion over a 5-year period. Demographic and clinical data from time of shunt insertion were collected and used to generate generalised linear models (GLMs) to predict shunt success at 12 months after insertion.

RESULTS

Twenty-six infants underwent permanent shunting in this period for post-haemorrhagic hydrocephalus, with 10 suffering shunt failure within the first 12 months. The best-performing GLM was able to predict shunt success with a sensitivity of 1 and specificity of 0.90, with head circumference, weight, and corrected age at the time of shunt insertion being the most significantly associated variables for shunt success in this model.

CONCLUSION

Our proof-of-principle study suggests that highly accurate prediction of shunt success for infants with post-haemorrhagic hydrocephalus is possible using routinely available clinical variables. Further work is required to test this model in larger cohorts and validate whether pre-operative use can improve outcomes for this patient group.

Immediate and delayed effects of climatic factors on hospital admissions for schizophrenia in Queensland Australia: A time series analysis

BACKGROUND

Evidence of immediate and delayed effects of climatic drivers on hospital admissions for schizophrenia is limited and inconsistent. We aimed to assess the association between climatic factors and daily hospital admissions for schizophrenia in Queensland, Australia.

METHODS

Daily hospital admissions for schizophrenia from January 1, 1996 to December 31, 2015 in all private and public hospitals of Queensland were obtained from Queensland Health. The association between climatic factors and hospital admissions for schizophrenia were analysed using Generalised Linear Models with Poisson distribution (GLM) and Distributed Lag non-linear Models (DLNM) across different climatic zones.

RESULTS

In South East Queensland, only daily mean temperature showed an immediate negative effect on schizophrenia admissions (RR 0.93, 95%CI 0.90-0.98, p value < 0.001). For other regions, the adverse effect of temperature on hospital admissions was not significant, however, relative humidity (North: RR 1.01, 95%CI 1.00-1.02, p = 0.05) and air pressure (North: RR 1.03, 95%CI 1.00-1.05, p = 0.04; South West: RR 1.01, 95%CI 1.00-1.02, p = 0.05) had an immediate and positive effect on hospital admissions. Moreover, climatic factors had some delayed effects on schizophrenia admissions in different regions of Queensland, i.e. temperature over 0-4 lag days (South East: RR 0.97, 95%CI 0.94-0.98, p = 0.05; South West: RR 0.96, 95%CI 0.94-0.98, p = 0.01), relative humidity over 0-7 lag days (North: RR 0.95, 95%CI 0.92-0.98, p = 0.01; Central: RR 1.02, 95%CI 1.00-1.03, p = 0.05) and rainfall over 0-21 lag days (North: RR 1.03, 95%CI 1.01-1.04, p = 0.01). Meta-analysis showed significant pooled delayed effects of temperature (0-15 days lag: RR 0.95, 95% CI 0.93-0.98, p value < 0.001), relative humidity (0-7 days: RR 0.96, 95%CI 0.92-0.99, p < 0.001); rainfall (0-21 lag days: RR 1.03, 95%CI 1.01-1.04, p < 0.001) and air pressure (0-7 days lag: RR 1.02, 95%CI 1.00-1.04, p < 0.001) on schizophrenia admissions in Queensland.

DISCUSSION

As this is the largest study from Australia and also internationally to extensively examine both short term and delayed association between climatic factors and daily admissions for schizophrenia, the results of the study indicate that climate plays an important role in the sudden exacerbation of acute episodes of schizophrenia. Thus, preventive measures could be taken to reduce the severity of symptoms as well as hospital admissions due to schizophrenia during vulnerable periods.

Do Silver Zones reduce auto-related elderly pedestrian collisions? Based on a case in Seoul, South Korea

Inaugurated in 2007, in Seoul, South Korea, the Silver Zone is a designated pedestrian safety zone for the elderly that adopts speed limit measures such as traffic signage and road surface markings. In this study, we empirically investigate the effectiveness of the Silver Zone in two respects: first, whether the establishment of the Silver Zone has lowered the number of elderly pedestrian collisions, and second, whether Silver Zones are established in the appropriate areas, that is, those with the highest frequency of such collisions. From our quasi-experimental statistical analysis, Difference-in-Difference, we learn that the Silver Zone has no effects on reducing elderly pedestrian collisions. From our spatial statistical analyses-Kernel Density mapping and Bivariate Moran's I-we found a spatial mismatch between the frequency of senior pedestrian-vehicular collisions and the location of Silver Zones. For better performance of the Silver Zone system, we suggest additional types of physical measures to be integrated into the Silver Zone system. Municipal-level comprehensive master plan for Silver Zone system is also necessary, under which local governments should use periodic surveys to inventory and prioritise the locations of highest elderly pedestrian-vehicular collisions.

Quantifying parasite presence in relation to biological parameters of harbour porpoises Phocoena phocoena stranded on the Dutch coast

Harbour porpoises are often found to be infected by endoparasites in several organs including the lungs and stomach as well as the heart, liver and ears. Nevertheless there is still little knowledge about the impact, ecology, transmission, and virulence of these parasitic infections. Here, we profile the presence of parasites in 4 frequently infected organs (lungs, stomach, liver and ears) in relation to biological parameters of harbour porpoises stranded along the Dutch coastline between December 2008 and December 2013. We found that parasites were common, with prevalence of 68% in lungs, 74.4% in ears, 26% in stomach and 23.5% in liver. We used generalised linear models to further quantify parasite presence in relation to biological data gathered during necropsy (sex, body length and nutritive condition). Body length (used as a proxy for age) was significant in explaining parasite presence for all organs with increasing probability of having the parasite with increasing body length. For the parasitic infections in the ears and stomach the nutritive condition was an additional significant factor, with a higher probability of parasite presence in porpoises in a poorer nutritive condition. The results of this study can be used as a baseline for assessing parasite presence in harbour porpoises and are a first step towards linking parasite infections to basic biological data gathered during necropsy.

Life tables for global surveillance of cancer survival (the CONCORD programme): data sources and methods

BACKGROUND

We set out to estimate net survival trends for 10 common cancers in 279 cancer registry populations in 67 countries around the world, as part of the CONCORD-2 study. Net survival can be interpreted as the proportion of cancer patients who survive up to a given time, after eliminating the impact of mortality from other causes (background mortality). Background mortality varies widely between populations and over time. It was therefore necessary to construct robust life tables that accurately reflected the background mortality in each of the registry populations.

METHODS

Life tables of all-cause mortality rates by single year of age and sex were constructed by calendar year for each population and, when possible, by racial or ethnic sub-groups. We used three different approaches, based on the type of mortality data available from each registry. With death and population counts, we adopted a flexible multivariable modelling approach. With unsmoothed mortality rates, we used the Ewbank relational method. Where no data were available from the registry or a national statistical office, we used the abridged UN Population Division life tables and interpolated these using the Elandt-Johnson method. We also investigated the impact of using state- and race-specific life tables versus national race-specific life tables on estimates of net survival from four adult cancers in the United States (US).

RESULTS

We constructed 6,514 life tables covering 327 populations. Wide variations in life expectancy at birth and mortality by age were observed, even within countries. During 1995-99, life expectancy was lowest in Nigeria and highest in Japan, ranging from 47 to 84 years among females and 46 to 78 years among males. During 2005-09, life expectancy was lowest in Lesotho and again highest in Japan, ranging from 45 to 86 years among females and 45 to 80 years among males. For the US, estimates of net survival differed by up to 4% if background mortality was fully controlled with state- and race-specific life tables, rather than with national race-specific life tables.

CONCLUSIONS

Background mortality varies worldwide. This emphasises the importance of using population-specific life tables for geographic and international comparisons of net survival.

Local climate explains degree of seed dormancy in Hypericum elodes L. (Hypericaceae)

Seed dormancy and germination characteristics may vary within species in response to several factors. Knowledge of such variation is crucial to understand plant evolution and adaptation to environmental changes. We examined the correlation of climate and population genetic differentiation (ISSR) with primary seed dormancy and germination behaviour in populations of the Atlantic-European soft-water pool specialist Hypericum elodes. Primary dormancy was measured by analysing seed germination response of fresh seeds and after various periods of cold stratification. Laboratory germination experiments revealed that the single most important factor for promoting germination was cold stratification prior to placing at the germination temperature. However, in agreement with their weaker primary dormancy, the seeds germinated well when fresh, and the benefit of cold stratification was more relaxed for the southern populations. Seeds of all populations demonstrated a near absolute requirement for a light and alternating temperature regime in order to germinate. The promoting effect of alternating temperatures was particularly effective at warm temperatures (mean 20 °C) but not at cool temperatures. Whilst seed germination requirements were similar among populations, the degree of primary dormancy varied considerably and was not associated with population genetic differentiation. Primary dormancy degree was instead associated with local climate: higher temperature in summer and rainfall in winter predicted weak and rapid loss of dormancy. These results suggest that seed maturation environment may play a substantial role in explaining the degree of dormancy in H. elodes, highlighting that physiological dormancy can be modulated by local climate.

Multivariable flexible modelling for estimating complete, smoothed life tables for sub-national populations

BACKGROUND

The methods currently available to estimate age- and sex-specific mortality rates for sub-populations are subject to a number of important limitations. We propose two alternative multivariable approaches: a relational model and a Poisson model both using restricted cubic splines.

METHODS

We evaluated a flexible Poisson and flexible relational model against the Elandt-Johnson approach in a simulation study using 100 random samples of population and death counts, with different sampling proportions and data arrangements. Estimated rates were compared to the original mortality rates using goodness-of-fit measures and life expectancy. We further investigated an approach for determining optimal knot locations in the Poisson model.

RESULTS

The flexible Poisson model outperformed the flexible relational and Elandt-Johnson methods with the smallest sample of data (1%). With the largest sample of data (20%), the flexible Poisson and flexible relational models performed comparably, though the flexible Poisson model displayed a slight advantage. Both approaches tended to underestimate infant mortality and thereby overestimate life expectancy at birth. The flexible Poisson model performed much better at young ages when knots were fixed a priori. For ages 30 and above, results were similar to the model with no fixed knots.

CONCLUSIONS

The flexible Poisson model is recommended because it derives robust and unbiased estimates for sub-populations without making strong assumptions about age-specific mortality profiles. Fixing knots a priori in the final model greatly improves fit at the young ages.