Quantifying the role of saltmarsh as a vulnerable carbon sink: A case study from Northern Portugal

Saltmarshes play a crucial role in carbon sequestration and storage, although they are increasingly threatened by climate change-induced sea level rise (SLR). This study assessed the potential variation in Blue Carbon stocks across regional and local scales, and estimated their economic value and potential habitat loss due to SLR based on the IPCC AR6 scenarios for 2050 and 2100 in three estuarine saltmarshes in northern Portugal, the saltmarshes of the Minho, Lima and Cávado estuaries. The combined carbon stock of these saltmarshes was 38,798 ± 2880 t of organic carbon, valued at 3.96 ± 0.38 M€. Local and regional differences in carbon stocks were observed between common species, with the cordgrass Spartina patens and the reed Phragmites australis consistently showing higher values in the Lima saltmarsh in some of the parameters. Overall, the Lima saltmarsh had the highest total carbon per species cover, with S. patens showing the highest values among common species. Bolboschoenus maritimus had the highest values in the Minho saltmarsh, while the other species presented a similar carbon storage capacity. Potential habitat loss due to SLR was most evident in the Cávado saltmarsh over shorter timescales, with a significant risk of inundation even for median values of SLR, while the Lima saltmarsh was shown to be more resistant and resilient. If habitat loss directly equates to carbon loss within these saltmarshes, projected CO2 emissions may range from 22,000 to 43,449 t by 2050 and 33,000 to 130,000 t by 2100 (under the IPCC SSP5-8.5 scenario). The study shows the importance of Blue Carbon site-specific estimates, acknowledging the potential future repercussions from habitat loss due to SLR. It emphasizes the need to consider local and regional variability in Blue Carbon stocks assessments and highlights the critical importance of preserving and rehabilitating these ecosystems to ensure their continued efficacy as vital carbon sinks, thereby contributing to climate change mitigation efforts.

Shark critical life stage vulnerability to monthly temperature variations under climate change

In a 10-month experimental study, we assessed the combined impact of warming and acidification on critical life stages of small-spotted catshark (Scyliorhinus canicula). Using recently developed frameworks, we disentangled individual and group responses to two climate scenarios projected for 2100 (SSP2-4.5: Middle of the road and SSP5-8.5: Fossil-fueled Development). Seasonal temperature fluctuations revealed the acute vulnerability of embryos to summer temperatures, with hatching success ranging from 82% for the control and SSP2-4.5 treatments to only 11% for the SSP5-8.5 treatment. The death of embryos was preceded by distinct individual growth trajectories between the treatments, and also revealed inter-individual variations within treatments. Embryos with the lowest hatching success had lower yolk consumption rates, and growth rates associated with a lower energy assimilation, and almost all of them failed to transition to internal gills. Within 6 months after hatching, no additional mortality was observed due to cooler temperatures.

Differential Interpretation of Mountain Temperatures by Endospermic Seeds of Three Endemic Species Impacts the Timing of In Situ Germination

Predicting seed germination in the field is a critical part of anticipating the impact of climate change on the timing of wild species regeneration. We combined thermal time and soil heat sum models of seed germination for three endemic Mediterranean mountain species with endospermic seeds and morphophysiological dormancy: Aquilegia barbaricina, Paeonia corsica, and Ribes sandalioticum. Seeds were buried in the soil within the respective collection sites, both underneath and outside the tree canopy, and their growth was assessed regularly and related to soil temperatures and estimates of the thermal characteristics of the seeds. The thermal thresholds for embryo growth and seed germination of A. barbaricina assessed in previous studies under controlled conditions were used to calculate soil heat sum accumulation of this species in the field. Thermal thresholds of seed germination for P. corsica and R. sandalioticum were not previously known and were estimated for the first time in this field study, based on findings of previous works carried out under controlled conditions. Critical embryo length and maximum germination for A. barbaricina were reached in April, and in December for R. sandalioticum. Seeds of P. corsica stay dormant in the ground until the following summer, and the critical embryo length and highest germination were detected from September to December. Soil heat sum models predicted earlier germination by one month for all three species under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios, based on the assumption that the estimated thermal thresholds will remain constant through climate changes. This phenological shift may increase the risk of mortality for young seedlings. The models developed provide important means of connecting the micro-environmental niche for in situ seed germination and the macro-environmental parameters under a global warming scenario.

Vulnerability of coastal ecosystems to changes in harmful algal bloom distribution in response to climate change: projections based on model analysis

Harmful algal blooms (HABs), those proliferations of algae that can cause fish kills, contaminate seafood with toxins, form unsightly scums, or detrimentally alter ecosystem function have been increasing in frequency, magnitude, and duration worldwide. Here, using a global modeling approach, we show, for three regions of the globe, the potential effects of nutrient loading and climate change for two HAB genera, pelagic Prorocentrum and Karenia, each with differing physiological characteristics for growth. The projections (end of century, 2090-2100) are based on climate change resulting from the A1B scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Climate Model (IPCC, IPSL-CM4), applied in a coupled oceanographic-biogeochemical model, combined with a suite of assumed physiological 'rules' for genera-specific bloom development. Based on these models, an expansion in area and/or number of months annually conducive to development of these HABs along the NW European Shelf-Baltic Sea system and NE Asia was projected for both HAB genera, but no expansion (Prorocentrum spp.), or actual contraction in area and months conducive for blooms (Karenia spp.), was projected in the SE Asian domain. The implications of these projections, especially for Northern Europe, are shifts in vulnerability of coastal systems to HAB events, increased regional HAB impacts to aquaculture, increased risks to human health and ecosystems, and economic consequences of these events due to losses to fisheries and ecosystem services.