Assessment of the impact of conservation measures by modeling soil loss in Minas Gerais, Brazil

Gullies are significant contributors to soil degradation in several regions of Brazil, including Minas Gerais, where erosion processes have caused soil loss. The characterization of erosion processes is crucial for the application of measures for recovering degraded areas and reducing erosion impacts. This study models soil loss with the use of InVEST software and assesses the impact of three different scenarios, namely (1) implementation of soil conservation practices and replacement of pasture areas for temporary agriculture, (2) reforestation of pasture areas, and (3) preservation of ciliary forests. Soil loss, sediment exportation, retention, and deposition for the present scenario (2019), as well as the three aforementioned hypothetical scenarios, were estimated. In the present scenario, the estimated mean annual soil loss was 2.75 t/ha year, with 1,449.54 t/year sediment exportation, 9,042.13 t/year retention, and 1,449.54 t/year deposition. The model predicted scenario 1 would result in 2.23 t/ha year mean annual soil loss, 1,300.59 t/year sediment exportation, 9,191.08 t/year retention, and 11,755.76 t/year deposition. Scenario 2 showed 1.92 t/ha year mean annual soil loss, 1,046.69 t/year sediment exportation, 9,444.98 t/year retention, and 10,229.77 t/year deposition, whereas the results for scenario 3 were 2.36 t/ha year, 616.65 t/year, 9,862.06 t/year, and 13,206.47 t/year, respectively. Reforestation and preservation of ciliary forests, along with soil conservation practices, were effective measures for reducing soil loss. Such findings are valuable for the management of areas degraded by erosion processes.

Climate-altered Precipitation is more Important than Land Use when Modeling Ecosystem Services Associated with Surficial Processes

Ecosystem services (ESs) associated with surficial processes may change according to shifts in land use, land cover, and climate parameters. Estimating these shifts can be important for land development planning, as urbanization alters soil processes that can manifest legacy effects. We employed the InVEST suite of models for sediment retention, nutrient delivery, and carbon storage to postulate how these ESs will change in the Upstate of South Carolina under future precipitation and land use and land cover (LULC) scenarios. We used the average precipitation from 1981-2010 and WorldClim precipitation projections for 2021-2040 and 2041-2060 to embody climatic precipitation shifts. For our LULC scenarios, we used 2011 and 2016 NLCD landscapes, then projected future LULC to hypothesize four future scenarios. We found that for the ES models that included both precipitation and LULC as inputs, precipitation dictated ES delivery far more heavily than land use or land cover. LULC scenarios produced consistent changes in ES delivery for all models except sediment export. Phosphorus and sediment exports increased between 2011 and 2016 due to LULC change, while nitrogen export stayed the same and carbon storage decreased. Land development that prioritizes forest cover will cause the least change in ESs, but allowing for continued forest loss to low-density development will have the most intense implications for ESs. Prioritization of land uses that preserve ESs associated with surficial processes will be critical to the longevity of agriculture and ecosystem integrity in this rapidly developing region. Land development planners should integrate consideration of ESs associated with surficial processes into future regional planning.

Nonparametric assessment of mangrove ecosystem in the context of coastal resilience in Ghana

Cloud cover effects make it difficult to evaluate the mangrove ecosystem in tropical locations using solely optical satellite data. Therefore, it is essential to conduct a more precise evaluation using data from several sources and appropriate models in order to manage the mangrove ecosystem as effectively as feasible. In this study, the status of the mangrove ecosystem and its potential contribution to coastal resilience were evaluated using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) and the InVEST model. The GEE was used to map changes in mangrove and other land cover types for the years 2009 and 2019 by integrating both optical and radar data. The quantity allocation disagreement index (QADI) was used to assess the classification accuracy. Mangrove height and aboveground biomass density were estimated using GEE by extracting their values from radar image clipped with a digital elevation model and mangrove vector file. A universal allometric equation that relates canopy height to aboveground biomass was applied. The InVEST model was used to calculate a hazard index of every 250 m of the shoreline with and without mangrove ecosystem. Our result showed that about 16.9% and 21% of mangrove and other vegetation cover were lost between 2009 and 2019. However, water body and bare land/built-up areas increased by 7% and 45%, respectively. The overall accuracy of 2009 and 2019 classifications was 99.6% (QADI = 0.00794) and 99.1% (QADI = 0.00529), respectively. Mangrove height and aboveground biomass generally decreased from 12.7 to 6.3 m and from 105 to 88 Mg/ha on average. The vulnerability index showed that 23%, 51% and 26% of the coastal segment in the presence of mangrove fall under very low/low, moderate and high risks, respectively. Whereas in the absence of mangrove, 8%, 38%, 39% and 15% fall under low, moderate, high and very high-risk zones, respectively. This study will among other things help the stakeholders in coastal management and marine spatial planning to identify the need to focus on conservation practices.

Assessment of the impact of wetland changes on carbon storage in coastal urban agglomerations from 1990 to 2035 in support of SDG15.1

The quantitative assessment and spatial representation of wetland carbon storage, which play a critical role in the global carbon cycle and human production, can provide useful data and knowledge for decision-making in achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs). Currently, human activities and climate change impacts pose a challenge for the assessment of wetland carbon storage in coastal urban clusters. We proposed a "past-present-future" long time series refined wetland carbon storage assessment model using Guangxi Beibu Gulf (GBG) and Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao and the Greater Bay Area (GBA) as the study area. The CLUE-S and InVEST models were coupled to conduct a comparative analysis of the spatial and temporal changes in wetland carbon storage and the spatial identification of damages from 1990 to 2035 and finally explore the sensitivity of wetland changes to carbon storage and quantitatively assess the SDG15.1 target. The results showed that (1) both urban clusters are characterized by many reservoirs/farming ponds, large river areas and few lakes. 1990-2035 rivers, shallow waters and mudflats have a decreasing trend to be distributed in the middle of their respective regions, mangroves are on an increasing trend, GBG is mainly distributed in the Maowei Sea and GBA is mainly distributed in Shenzhen Bay. (2) Wetland carbon storage of the two urban clusters show an overall fluctuating downward trend, with rivers, lakes and beaches all showing a downward trend. The multiyear average carbon storage of the GBG are 3.2 times higher than those of the GBA. In ecological protection scenario (EPS) policy planning, it is reasonable to help wetland carbon sequestration in coastal urban clusters. (3) The trend of wetland change from 1990 to 2020 was positive for carbon storage. The rate of recovery of wetland carbon stocks is lower in GBA than in GBG under the natural increase scenario (NIS) and the ecological protection scenario (EPS). The economic development scenario (EDS) contributes least to the realisation of SDG15.1 for the coastal urban agglomeration. The ecological protection scenario (EPS) contributes the most to the realisation of SDG15.1 for the coastal urban agglomeration.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Coupling Relationship between Habitat Quality and Urbanization in the Lower Yellow River

Natural habitats are damaged by human interference to varying degrees during the urbanization process, which can impede a region's high-quality development. In this study, we examined the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of habitat quality and urbanization in the Lower Yellow River from 2000 to 2020 using the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs (InVEST) model and the comprehensive indicator method. We also evaluated the coupling relationship between the habitat quality and urbanization using the coupling coordination degree model. The findings indicate the following aspects: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, the Lower Yellow River's habitat quality was typically mediocre, with a steady declining trend. The majority of cities displayed a trend toward declining habitat quality. (2) Both the urbanization subsystem and the urbanization level in 34 cities have demonstrated a consistent growth tendency. The urbanization level is most affected by economic urbanization among the subsystems. (3) The coupling coordination degree have revealed an ongoing trend of growth. In most cities, the relationship between habitat quality and urbanization has been evolving toward coordination. The results of this study have some reference value for ameliorating the habitat quality of the Lower Yellow River and solving the coupling coordination relationship between habitat quality and urbanization.

Anthropogenic risk assessment of riverine habitat using geospatial modelling tools for conservation and restoration planning: a case study from a tropical river Pranhita, India

The riverine ecosystem provides multiple benefits to human community and contributes to the sustainable development of the ecoregion. The growing dependency on these ecosystems has largely contributed to aggravating the ecological risks, habitat degradation, and loss of ecosystem services. The present study evaluates the ecological risk emanating from nine anthropogenic stressors including river use, hydro-morphology, catchment pollution, and biological stressor on river Pranhita in Godavari Basin of Peninsular India using InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) Habitat Risk Assessment model. The primary field survey, remote sensing, and secondary data-assisted spatial modelling results revealed low ecological risk (R = 0.65 of 3) in river Pranhita due to anthropogenic activities. Sediment loading, the inflow of nitrogen, and habitat fragmentation were the major stressors with relatively higher risk score (> 1); influence on a sizeable portion of riverine habitat (29-75% of the total area under high-risk zone) indicates the mounting threat from catchment activities. The low-risk value observed in protected river reaches as compared to unprotected areas is likely to be influenced by the abundant presence of intact riparian vegetation which mitigate the catchment stressors and minimal anthropogenic activity within protected areas. This study demonstrates the application of InVEST HRA model for ecological risk assessment of riverine ecosystems and fish assemblages along with their input data generation framework. This has the potential for prioritization of sensitive habitats based on computed ecological risk and stressor identification based on their exposure and consequences for developing appropriate mitigation measures. This model is spatially explicit and accommodates user-defined criteria for ecosystem-level assessment at a regional and national scale to facilitate the resource managers and policymakers for conservation and restoration planning and implementation of targeted management measures for sustainable development.

Spatial-Temporal Variations in of Soil Conservation Service and Its Influencing Factors under the Background of Ecological Engineering in the Taihang Mountain Area, China

Soil conservation (SC) plays an important role in maintaining regional land productivity and sustainable development. Ecological engineering (EE) is being implemented in different countries to effectively alleviate the damage to the ecological environment and effectively protect soil and food security. It is important to determine whether or not the SC capacity becomes stronger after the implementation of EE and whether or not EE has a notable impact on SC in different altitude zones. The exploration of the influencing mechanism and identification of the dominate influencing factors in different geographical regions needs to be improved. In this study, the soil conservation services (SCSs) from 1980 to 2020 in the Taihang Mountain area was assessed using the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model, and the spatial and temporal distributions and influencing factors were explored. The results showed the following: (1) the average SCSs exhibited an increasing trend from 1980 to 2020 on the whole, and the rate of increase reached 50.53% during the 41-year period. The rate of increase of the SCSs varied in the different EE implementation regions, and it was significantly higher than that of the entire study area. (2) The spatial distribution of the SCSs was highly heterogeneous, and the high SCS value areas were coincident with the high-altitude areas where forest and grassland occupied a large proportion. The low value areas were mainly located in the hilly zone or some of the basin regions where the proportion of construction land was relatively high. (3) The distribution pattern of the SCSs was the result of multiple factors. The EE intensity had the strongest explanatory power for the SCSs in the hilly zone, explaining 34.63%. The slope was the most critical factor affecting the SCSs in the mid-mountain and sub-alpine zones. The slope and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) had the greatest interactions with the other factors in the three altitude zones, especially in the high-altitude regions. The quantitative analysis of the SCSs and the influences of EE and natural factors on the SCSs revealed the heterogeneity in the mountainous areas. These results also provide a scientific basis for the reasonable implementation of EE and sustainable management of SCSs in the Taihang Mountain area.

Scenario modeling to predict changes in land use/cover using Land Change Modeler and InVEST model: a case study of Karaj Metropolis, Iran

Models for land cover/land use simulation are appropriate and important tools for decision-makers, helping them build future plausible landscape scenarios. Due to the fact that the simulation results of different models may be different, it is sometimes difficult for users to choose a suitable model. Therefore, in this study, an integrated approach is used, combining the data obtained from remote sensing and GIS with Land Change Modeler (LCM) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) models to simulate and predict land cover/land use changes for 2028 in Karaj metropolis (Northern Iran as a poor region-in terms of data-which is under intense and rapid urbanization. In this sense, three land cover/land use maps related to the study area were primarily generated using satellite image data for the period 2006, 2011, and 2017. They were used as a basis to define two scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and participatory plausible scenario (PPS) for 2028. Afterwards, the necessary input data used in running of both models were prepared and, then, the outputs of the models were interpreted and compared. According to the results, while human-made coverage and low-density grasslands increased by about 74% and 12%, respectively, it was from 2006 to 2017 that agricultural lands, gardens, and high-density grasslands decreased by 42%, 34%, and 7%, respectively. According to the business-as-usual scenario, which was projected using the LCM model, the increase in human-made cover will continue by about 29% by 2028, and the reduction rate of agricultural lands, gardens, and low-dense and dense grasslands will experience decrease by about 20%, 3%, 11%, and 9%, respectively. The participatory plausible scenario for 2028, which was defined using the InVEST model, confirmed the same results, but having different quantities. Accordingly, while human-made cover will increase by about 73%, the reduction rate of agricultural lands, gardens, and low-dense and dense grasslands will decrease by about 41%, 10%, 16%, and 1%, respectively. The output quantities of InVEST scenario model seem to be closer to reality with less uncertainty, because this model estimates the quantity of demand for land and its suitability for different uses, based on the views of different stakeholders, and considers landscape development future policies and plans. In contrast, the LCM model is based solely on trend extrapolation from the past to current time and changes in the landscape structure.

Habitat quality dynamics in China's first group of national parks in recent four decades: Evidence from land use and land cover changes

As the most biodiversity-rich part of the protected areas system, habitats within the pilot national parks have long been threatened by drastic human-induced land use and land cover changes. The growing concern about habitat loss has spurred China's national park project to shift from pilot to construction phase with the official establishment of China's first group of national parks (CFGNPs) in October 2021. But far too little attention has been paid to the synergistic work concerning the habitat quality (HQ) dynamics of all five national parks. Here, the InVEST model, combined with a satellite-derived land use and land cover product and a hot spot analysis (HSA) method, was used to investigate the HQ dynamics at the park- and pixel-scale within the CFGNPs. Our results demonstrate that the past ecological conservation practices within national parks have been unpromising, especially in Giant Panda National Park, Northeast China Tiger and Leopard National Park (NCTL), and Wuyi Mountain National Park (WYM), where HQ as a whole showed a significant decline. Furthermore, more than half of Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park (87.2%), WYM (77.4%), and NCTL (52.9%) showed significant HQ degradation from 1980 to 2019. Besides, increasing trends in the area shares of HQ degraded pixels were observed in all five national parks from 1980-1999 to 2000-2019. The HSA implied that the hot spots of high HQ degradation rates tend to occur in areas closer to urban settlements or on the edge of national parks, where human activities are intensive. Despite these disappointing findings, we highlighted from the observed local successes and the HQ plateau that the construction of CFGNPs is expected to reverse the deteriorating HQ trends. Thus, we concluded our paper by proposing an HSA-based regulatory zoning scheme that includes five subzones to guide the future construction of China's national park system.

Potential impact of land-use change on habitat quality in the distribution range of crocodile lizards in China

The over‐exploitation of land resources poses a serious threat to biodiversity on a global scale. Changes in land‐use and human exploitation have had a major impact on wild populations and their habitat in China. We assessed how habitat quality has changed over time (1995–2020). Specifically, we analyzed how the habitat quality of crocodile lizard has changed over time based on multi‐temporal land‐use data (1995, 2000, 2010, 2015 and 2020) using a land‐use transfer matrix and habitat quality model. The results showed that the main landscape types in the study area were arable land (21.21% of the area) and woodland (69.59% of the area) during the period. Construction land (land used for development) had decreased by 991 km², a decrease rate of 59.84% from 1995 to 2000, and increased to 2349 km², an increase rate of 71.69% from 2000 to 2020. The proportion of grasslands and areas with water were negligible and overall, did not vary significantly in size over the study period. The main feature of land use change in the study area was the loss of grasslands and woodlands through development. The habitat quality model indicated that habitat quality was highest and degradation was lowest in Dayao mountain, Guxiu town, Qichong village and Beituo town. Habitat quality improved in Daguishan and Luokeng areas. Habitat quality was good in Daping mountain and Linzhouding, but they were highly fragmented with patches of low‐quality habitat of varying sizes. Habitats were severely degraded in the Dateng Gorge area. The rate of habitat degradation has slowed over time in the study area, but gradually increased in degradation intensity, and low‐quality habitats were widely distributed and overlapped with the crocodile lizards distribution area. We recommend that protected areas for the crocodile lizard be more closely monitored and managed to halt further decline in habitat quality.

Understanding the accuracy of modelled changes in freshwater provision over time

Accurate modelling of changes in freshwater supplies is critical in an era of increasing human demand, and changes in land use and climate. However, there are concerns that current landscape-scale models do not sufficiently capture catchment-level changes, whilst large-scale comparisons of empirical and simulated water yield changes are lacking. Here we modelled annual water yield in two time periods (1: 1985-1994 and 2: 2008-2017) across 81 catchments in England and validated against empirical data. Our objectives were to i) investigate whether modelling absolute or relative change in water yield is more accurate and ii) determine which predictors have the greatest impact on model accuracy. We used the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Annual Water Yield model. In this study, absolute values refer to volumetric units of million cubic metres per year (Mm³/y), either at the catchment or hectare level. Modelled annual yields showed high accuracy as indicated by the low Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD, based on normalised data, 0 is high and 1 is low accuracy) at the catchment (1: 0.013 ± 0.019, 2: 0.012 ± 0.020) and hectare scales (1: 0.03 ± 0.030, 2: 0.030 ± 0.025). But accuracy of modelled absolute change in water yield showed a more moderate fit on both the catchment (MAD = 0.055 ± 0.065) and hectare (MAD = 0.105 ± 0.089) scales. Relative change had lower accuracy (MAD = 0.189 ± 0.135). Anthropogenic modifications to the hydrological system, including water abstraction contributed significantly to the inaccuracy of change values at the catchment and hectare scales. Quantification of changes in freshwater provision can be more accurately articulated using absolute values rather than using relative values. Absolute values can provide clearer guidance for mitigation measures related to human consumption. Accuracy of modelled change is related to different aspects of human consumption, suggesting anthropogenic impacts are critically important to consider when modelling water yield.

Challenges in modelling the sediment retention ecosystem service to inform an ecosystem account - Examples from the Mitchell catchment in northern Australia

A systems analysis perspective related to soil science is necessary to achieve many of the sustainability targets articulated by the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The System of Environmental-Economic Accounting - Ecosystem Accounting (SEEA-EA) framework is the international statistical standard for quantifying both the contributions that ecosystems make to the economy, and the impacts of economic activity on ecosystems. However, due to the difficulty of obtaining empirical data on ecosystem service flows, in many cases such quantification is informed by ecosystem service models. Previous research on the Mitchell catchment, Queensland Australia provided a novel opportunity to quantify the implications of using a model of hillslope erosion and sediment delivery in isolation (as represented in one of the most frequently used ecosystem service models - InVEST), by comparing such estimates against multiple lines of local empirical data, and a more comprehensive representation of locally important erosion and deposition processes through a sediment budget model. Estimates of the magnitude of hillslope erosion modelled using an approach similar to InVEST and the calibrated sediment budget differed by an order of magnitude. If an uncalibrated InVEST-type model was used to inform the relative distribution of erosion magnitude, findings suggest the incorrect erosion process would be identified as the dominant contributor to suspended sediment loads. However, the sediment budget model could only be calibrated using data on sediment sources and sinks that had been collected through sustained research effort in the catchment. A comparable level of research investment may not be available to inform ecosystem service assessments elsewhere. Findings for the Mitchell catchment demonstrate that practitioners should exercise caution when using model-derived estimates of the sediment retention ecosystem service, which have not been calibrated and validated against locally collected empirical data, to inform an ecosystem account and progress towards achieving the SDGs.

Distribution of ecological restoration projects associated with land use and land cover change in China and their ecological impacts

China is prone to broad land degradation and thus has been implementing ecological restoration projects (ERPs) since the reform and opening up. The extent of ERPs, as well as the varied planting efforts including tree gain projects (TGPs), grass gain projects (GGPs), and shrub gain projects (SGPs), have remained largely unknown. In addition, the mixed success of ERPs on preventing soil erosion and improving biodiversity is not well known. Based on a land use and land cover (LULC) product and a trajectory-based change detection approach, we successfully generated the first national map of ERPs associated with land use and land cover change (LUCC) and its three associated subcategories. Then, we applied the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model to evaluate the dynamics of sediment retention and habitat quality. In addition, we explored the heterogeneous patterns for the ecological impacts of ERPs. Our results suggested that during the past 40 years, a total ERP area of 9.54 × 10⁶ hm² was observed nationwide, mainly in the northwestern provinces of China. Of the three ERP subcategories, TGPs accounted for the largest area (48.55%), followed by GGPs (47.50%) and SGPs (3.96%). The national average sediment retention experienced a significant increase, whereas the national average habitat quality experienced a significant decline. ERP-driven increases in habitat quality were offset partly by the LUCCs induced by economic development policies in some regions, especially in northeast China. The simultaneous effect of construction land expansion and ERP implementation on sediment retention made the synchronization between ERP implementation and sediment retention improvement insignificant. We also suggested the optimal direction for ERP implementation.

Designing cross-region ecological compensation scheme by integrating habitat maintenance services production and consumption-A case study of Jing-Jin-Ji region

Establishing a practicable ecological compensation scheme is crucial to raise sufficient funds for habitat conservation. This study proposes a cross-region ecological compensation scheme by integrating habitat maintenance services production and consumption. In addition, the suitability evaluation method and InVEST model of habitat quality were employed to estimate the habitat maintenance services production and consumption, respectively. We used 1980 as the benchmark year and applied the scheme to a three-level hierarchy of the Jing-Jin-Ji region for 2000, 2008 and 2013. At the provincial level, Beijing paid the most habitat maintenance services ecological compensation, with an increasing trend from 1.64 × 109 RMB to 2.22 × 109 RMB, and Hebei received the most, from 2.06 × 109 RMB to 2.72 × 109 RMB. At the municipal level, Chengde, which is the most underdeveloped region in Hebei, was the largest beneficiary, receiving 1.31 × 109 RMB, 1.42 × 109 RMB and 1.46 × 109 RMB, respectively, and the ratio of ecological compensation to fiscal revenue was 7.59%. At the county level, Fengning and Weichang, the top two underdeveloped counties in Chengde, received the highest compensation. The results are consistent with each region's ecological function positioning and economic development status of the Jing-Jin-Ji region. This study can clarify the ecological responsibilities and rights, and provides the suggestions for establishing the cross administrative region ecological compensation scheme and long-term funding mechanism for habitat conservation.

Impact of urbanization on the food-water-land-ecosystem nexus: A study of Shenzhen, China

The food-water-land-ecosystem (FWLE) nexus is fundamental for achieving sustainable development. This study examines the influence of urbanization on the FWLE nexus. Toward this end, land was deemed as an entry point. Therefore, the impact of urbanization on the nexus was explored based on changes in land use. We selected Shenzhen, a city in China, as the study area. First, a land change modeler was employed to analyze historical land-use changes from 2000 to 2010, to build transition potential submodels, and to project future land-use patterns for 2030 under a business-as-usual scenario. Second, based on land-use maps, we assessed habitat quality, water yield, and water supply from 2000 to 2030 using Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs. Moreover, crop production was estimated according to statistical materials. Finally, the study presents the analyses and discussion of the impacts of urbanization on ecosystem services related to the FWLE nexus. The results of land-use changes indicated that a significant expansion of artificial surfaces occurred in Shenzhen with varying degrees of decrease in cultivated land, forest, and grassland. Furthermore, habitat quality, water supply, and crop production decreased evidently due to rapid urbanization. In contrast, the total water yield indicated an upward trend owing to the increased water yield from increasing artificial surfaces, whereas water yield from other land-use areas declined, such as the forest and grassland. The results demonstrated a significant positive correlation between artificial surfaces and total water yield. However, negative correlations were observed in the interaction among habitat quality, water supply, and crop production. The study presented temporal and spatial assessments to provide an effective and convenient means of exploring the interactions and tradeoffs within the FWLE nexus, which, thus, contributed to the sustainable transformation of urbanization.

Constraint relationship of ecosystem services in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China

Understanding the relationship among ecosystem services (ESs) is essential to promote ESs management and sustainable development. The relationship between ESs is mutual and can be expressed in terms of trade-offs, synergy, and constraints. The paper selected the InVEST model to assess the water yield (WY), soil conservation (SC), food production (FP), net primary productivity (NPP), and habitat quality (HQ) of the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) and used the constraint line method to analyze the relationship of paired ecological services at three scales: landscape, watershed, and land category. The following conclusions were drawn: (1) during the study period, the spatial changes of the five ecological services in the YREB did not change much, but the spatial distribution of the ecological services was different. (2) From 2000 to 2015, the constraint line of YREB paired ecological services had a high degree of fit. Under the three levels of landscape, watershed, and land category, the YREB has a variety of constraint types, including negative lines, logarithms, paraboloids, humped shapes, and rectangles. (3) At the three levels, the constraint lines between FP, NPP, WY, and SC and HQ were stable rectangular constraints; WY-SC was hump shaped, FP-NPP, FP-SC, FP-WY, NPP-WY, and NPP-SC changed with the scale, showing different spatial scale changes. (4) The paired ESs directly determined the ecological constraint curve but under the combined effect of other factors, which would affect or change the constraint line. We discussed the effects of weather, topography, and economy on the constraint relationship, and found that all have different degrees of influence.

Impacts of land use and land cover change on the interactions among multiple soil-dependent ecosystem services (case study: Jiroft plain, Iran)

The spatial and temporal distribution pattern is an outstanding feature of the relationship among ecosystem services (ESs) that explains links between human activities and disturbed chemical composition of ecosystems. This study investigated the spatiotemporal variation of land use/cover changes (LUCC) and quantifies the change in four essential ecosystem services with an emphasis on soil (nutrient delivery ratio, carbon storage, crop production, and water yield) and their relationships in the Jiroft plain, Iran, during 1996-2016 through analytical tools including Land Change Modeler, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoff. During the 20-year concentrate period, there was a considerable overall gain in cropland (5396 km²) and urban (1787 km²), loss of unused land (5692 km²), water (2088 km²), and forest (1083 km²). As a result of LUCC, while crop production and nutrient delivery ratio showed a rising trend, overall carbon storage and water yield decreased. The spatiotemporal trade-off between carbon storage and crop production, the temporal trade-off between crop production and water yield, and synergy between water yield and crop production were widespread in Jiroft plain. These results showed that the interaction among ESs mutates over time and can be changed under planning and policies. This study will enrich the research of the geographical distribution of ESs interaction in dryland ecosystems to provide practical ecosystem management under local conditions.

Mapping the Relative Habitat Quality Values for the Burrowing Owls (Athene cunicularia) of the Canadian Prairies Using an Innovative Parameterization Approach in the InVEST HQ Module

The range and population of Burrowing Owls (BOs) are declining in the Canadian Prairies. Multiple anthropogenic sources of degradation (threat) are attributed to this trend. Yet, the cumulative degradation caused by these sources has not been quantified across this landscape. Using the InVEST Habitat Quality (HQ) module and a novel approach to parameterize the relative sensitivity scores in this framework, we quantified, mapped, and evaluated the relative HQ values for these species in the prairies. The results illustrate significant differences in the HQ values between the current range and areas within the historical range of these species that do not spatially intersect with their current spatial extent. However, the variations of HQ values are not statistically significant under the different spatial scenarios considered across the current breeding grounds. Nevertheless, the results within the specific land use/cover categories illustrate meaningful variations in the HQ values across the current range of these species. Our findings suggest that the existing declining trends could only be attributed to the synergistic impact of the considered threats and other factors undermining the essential ecological processes for these birds. The results also highlight the importance of expanding the spatial extent of the existing conservation measures to prevent further loss of these charismatic migratory birds from the prairie landscape. A good starting point is to consider the HQ change index, a measure defined to illustrate the relative habitat degradation under different sources of degradation. Further studies are still required to determine the spatiotemporal impacts of all sources of degradation on the habitat of these endangered species in Canada and across their global range.

The direct and interactive impacts of hydrological factors on bacillary dysentery across different geographical regions in central China

Previous studies found non-linear mutual interactions among hydrometeorological factors on diarrheal disease. However, the complex interactions of the hydrometeorological, topographical and human activity factors need to be further explored. This study aimed to reveal how hydrological and other factors jointly influence bacillary dysentery in different geographical regions. Using Anhui Province in China, consisted of Huaibei plain, Jianghuai hilly and Wannan mountainous regions, we integrated multi-source data (6 meteorological, 3 hydrological, 2 topographic, and 9 socioeconomic variables) to explore the direct and interactive relationship between hydrological factors (quick flow, baseflow and local recharge) and other factors by combining the ecosystem model InVEST with spatial statistical analysis. The results showed hydrological factors had significant impact powers (q = 0.444 (Huaibei plain) for local recharge, 0.412 (Jianghuai hilly region) and 0.891 (Wannan mountainous region) for quick flow, respectively) on bacillary dysentery in different regions, but lost powers at provincial level. Land use and soil properties have created significant interactions with hydrological factors across Anhui province. Particularly, percentage of farmland in Anhui province can influence quick flow across Jianghuai, Wannan regions and the whole province, and it also has significant interactions with the baseflow and local recharge across the plain as well as the whole province. Percentage of urban areas had interactions with baseflow and local recharge in Jianghuai and Wannan regions. Additionally, baseflow and local recharge could be interacted with meteorological factors (e.g. temperature and wind speed), while these interactions varied in different regions. In conclusion, it was evident that hydrological factors had significant impacts on bacillary dysentery, and also interacted significantly with meteorological and socioeconomic factors. This study applying ecosystem model and spatial analysis help reveal the complex and nonlinear transmission of bacillary dysentery in different geographical regions, supporting the development of precise public health interventions with consideration of hydrological factors.

Study of habitat quality assessment using geospatial techniques in Keoladeo National Park, India

Wetlands are one of the most productive ecosystems on the Earth. They are generally considered a transitional state between terrestrial-aquatic habitats and provide numerous vital ecosystem services to mankind. Wetlands are under a tremendous pressure due to growing human interference, urbanization, conventional agriculture, industrial expansions, and overexploitation of ecological services. The Keoladeo National Park (KNP) is a manmade wetland, world heritage site and a designated Ramsar site in India, widely known for its avian biodiversity. Due to insufficient amount of water supply and widespread invasion of Prosopis juliflora, notable spatio-temporal changes are observed in the land cover affecting habitat quality of the park. The present study is designed to highlight the importance of very high-resolution satellite data for characterization of the wetland ecosystem. It assesses the spatio-temporal dynamics of land use/land cover (LULC) and habitat quality, a model built in the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) tool, is utilized to analyze the effect of land cover changes and increase in P. juliflora on habitat quality in the park. The study concludes that drastic changes in LULC and rampant spread of P. juliflora have deteriorated the quality of habitat for bird species. Furthermore, it highlights importance of geospatial tools in mapping, monitoring, and managing wetland ecosystems.

Coastal vulnerability to climate change in China's Bohai Economic Rim

Climate change and human activities exert a wide range of stressors on urban coastal areas. Synthetical assessment of coastal vulnerability is crucial for effective interventions and long-term planning. However, there have been few studies based on integrative analyses of ecological and physical characteristics and socioeconomic conditions in urban coastal areas. This study developed a holistic framework for assessing coastal vulnerability from three dimensions - biophysical exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity - and applied it to the coast of Bohai Economic Rim, an extensive and important development zone in China. A composite vulnerability index (CVI) was developed for every 1 km² segment of the total 5627 km coastline and the areas that most prone to coastal hazards were identified by mapping the distribution patterns of the CVIs in the present and under future climate change scenarios. The CVIs show a spatial heterogeneity, with higher values concentrated along the southwestern and northeastern coasts and lower values concentrated along the southern coasts. Currently, 20% of the coastlines with approximately 350,000 people are highly vulnerable to coastal hazards. With sea-level rises under the future scenarios of the year 2100, more coastlines will be highly vulnerable, and the amount of highly-threatened population was estimated to increase by 13-24%. Among the coastal cities, Dongying was categorized as having the highest vulnerability, mainly due to poor transportation and medical services and low GDP per capita, which contribute to low adaptive capacity. Our results can benefit decision-makers by highlighting prioritized areas and identifying the most important determinants of priority, facilitating location-specific interventions for climate-change adaptation and sustainable coastal management.

[Effects of urban expansion on habitat quality in densely populated areas on the Loess Pla-teau: A case study of Lanzhou, Xi'an-Xianyang and Taiyuan, China]

The rapid urbanization has greatly changed the spatial pattern and function of regional habitats, profoundly affected the material flow and energy flow between habitats, and also posed a serious threat to habitats and biodiversity. Here, we used InVEST model, landscape index and multiple linear regression to systematically analyze the spatial and temporal variation and influencing factors for the impacts of urbanization on habitat quality in the Loess Plateau and the densely populated areas from 1990 to 2018. The results showed that the urban expansion of Loess Plateau significantly affected habitat quality. Between 1990 and 2018, the area of construction land increased by 49.6%, resulting in a 5.2% reduction in the total area of habitat patch. After 2010, the urban patch area increased, but the patch density and fragmentation decreased, resulting in a spatial pattern of "high outside and low inside" for urban habitat quality. The rate of urban expansion in densely populated areas was significantly negatively correlated with the habitat quality. The average value of habitat quality in the region dropped by 2.7%, whereas the level of habitat degradation increased by 33.4%. The level of habitat quality was unstable, and patches with high-level habitats were easily converted to lower level. The conversion rates of Lanzhou, Xi'an-Xianyang and Taiyuan were 12.9%, 2.9% and 1.7%, respectively. There were eight influencing factors that could effectively explain the spatial variation of habitat quality (R²=68.7%). Among those factors, population density and distance to roads were the main factors for the fragmentation of habitats, while slope, GDP and precipitation had positive effects on the optimization of habitat spatial patterns.

Assessing anthropogenic risk to sea otters (Enhydra lutris nereis) for reintroduction into San Francisco Bay

Southern sea otters have been actively managed for their conservation and recovery since listing on the federal Endangered Species Act in 1977. Still, they remain constrained to a geographically small area on the central coast of California relative to their former coast-wide range, with population numbers far below those of the estimated optimal sustainable population size. Species managers have discussed reintroducing southern sea otters into parts of their historic range to facilitate sustained population growth and geographic range expansion. San Francisco Bay (SFB), historically home to several thousand sea otters, is one location identified as a candidate release site for these reintroductions. The return of sea otters to SFB could bring benefits to local ecosystem restoration and tourism, in addition to spurring sea otter population growth to meet recovery goals. However, this is a highly urbanized estuary, so sea otters could also be exposed to serious anthropogenic threats that would challenge a successful reintroduction. In light of these potential detriments we performed a spatially-explicit risk assessment to analyze the suitability of SFB for southern sea otter reintroduction. We looked at threats to sea otters specific to SFB, including: the impacts of vessel traffic from commercial shipping, high-speed ferries, and recreational vessels; environmental contaminants of methylmercury and polychlorinated biphenyls; major oil spills; and commercial fishing. Factors that influenced the relative threat imposed by each stressor included the spatio-temporal extent and intensity of the stressor and its mitigation potential. Our analysis revealed the complex spatial and temporal variation in risk distribution across the SFB. The type and magnitude of anthropogenic risk was not uniformly distributed across the study area. For example, the central SFB housed the greatest cumulative risk, where a high degree of vessel traffic and other stressors occurred in conjunction. The individual stressors that contributed to this risk score varied across different parts of the study area as well. Whereas vessel traffic, particularly of fast ferries, was a high scoring risk factor in in the north and central bay, in the south bay it was environmental contaminants that caused greater risk potential. To help identify areas within the study area that managers might want to target for release efforts, the spatially-explicit risk map revealed pockets of SFB that could provide both suitable habitat and relatively low overall risk. However in some cases these were adjacent or in close proximity to identified high-risk portions of habitat in SFB. This predictive suitability and risk assessment can be used by managers to consider the spatial distribution of potential threats, and risk abatement that may be necessary for sea otters to re-occupy their historic home range in SFB.

Analyzing Land-Use Change Scenarios for Ecosystem Services and their Trade-Offs in the Ecological Conservation Area in Beijing, China

It is generally believed that land-use changes can affect a variety of ecosystem services (ES), but the relationships involved remain unclear due to a lack of systematic knowledge and gaps in data. In order to make rational decisions for land-use planning that is grounded in a systematic understanding of trade-offs between different land-use strategies, it is very important to understand the response mechanisms of various ecosystem services to changes in land-use. Therefore, the objective of our study is to assess the effects of land-use change on six ecosystem services and their trade-offs among the ecosystem services in the ecological conservation area (ECA) in Beijing, China. To do this, we projected future land-use in 2030 under three different scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), Ecological Protection (ELP), and Rapid Urban Development (RUD), using GeoSOS-FLUS model. Then, we quantified six ecosystem services (carbon storage, soil conservation, water purification, habitat quality, flood regulation, and food production) in response to land-use changes from 2015 to 2030, using a spatially explicit InVEST model. Finally, we illustrated the trade-offs and/or synergistic relationships between each ecosystem service quantified under each of the different scenarios in 2030. Results showed that built-up land is projected to increase by 281.18 km2 at the cost of water bodies and cultivated land from 2015 to 2030 under the RUD scenario, while forest land is projected to increase by 152.38 km2 under the ELP scenario. The carbon storage, soil conservation, habitat quality, and the sum of ecosystem services (SES) would enrich the highest level under the ELP scenario. Land-use strategies that follow the ELP scenario can better maintain the ecosystem services and sustainable development of natural and social economic systems.

Modeling seasonal water yield for landscape management: Applications in Peru and Myanmar

A common objective of watershed management programs is to secure water supply, especially during the dry season. To develop such programs in contexts of low data and resource availability, program managers need tools to understand the effect of landscape management on the seasonal water balance. However, the performance of simple, parsimonious models is poorly understood. Here, we examine the behavior of a geospatial tool, developed to map monthly water budgets and baseflow contributions and forming part of the InVEST (integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs) software suite. The model uses monthly climate, topography, and land-use data to compute spatial indices of groundwater recharge, baseflow, and quickflow. We illustrate the model application in two large basins in Peru and Myanmar, where we compare results with observed data and alternative hydrologic models. We show that the spatial distribution of baseflow contributions correlated well with an established model in the Peruvian basin (r² = 0.81 at the parcel scale). In Myanmar, the model shows an overall satisfactory performance for representing month to month variation (Nash-Sutcliffe-Efficiency 0.6-0.8); however, errors are scale dependent highlighting limitations in representing processes in large basins. Our study highlights modeling challenges, in particular trade-offs between model complexity and accuracy, and illustrates the role that parsimonious models can play to support watershed management programs.

Identification of Conservation Priority Zones Using Spatially Explicit Valued Ecosystem Services: A Case from the Indian Sundarbans

Demarcation of conservation priority zones (CPZs) using spatially explicit models is the new challenge in ecosystem services (ESs) research. This study identifies the CPZs of the Indian Sundarbans by integrating 2 different approaches, that is, ESs and ecosystem health (EH). Five successive steps were followed to conduct the analysis: First, the ESs were estimated using biophysical and economic methods and a hybrid method (that combines biophysical and economic methods); second, the vigor-organization-resilience (VOR) model was used for estimating EH; third, the risk characterization value (RCV) of ESs was measured using the function of EH and ESs; fourth, Pearson correlation test was performed to analyze the interaction between ESs and EH components; and fifth, the CPZs were defined by considering 7 relevant components: ecosystem vigor, ecosystem organization, ecosystem resilience, RCV, EH, ESs, and the correlation between EH and ESs. Among the major ecoregions of the Sundarbans, the highest ESs value in economic terms is provided by the mangrove ecosystem (US$19 144.9 million per year). The highest conservation priority score was projected for the Gosaba block, which is dominated by dense mangrove forests. The estimated CPZs were found to be highly consistent with the existing biodiversity zonations. The outcome of this study could be a reference for environmentalists, land administrators, researchers, and decision makers to design relevant policies to protect the high values of the Sundarbans ecosystem. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2020;16:773-787. © 2020 SETAC.

What did China's National Wetland Conservation Program Achieve？Observations of changes in land cover and ecosystem services in the Sanjiang Plain

China implemented the National Wetland Conservation Program (NWCP) from 2002 to protect and rehabilitate wetlands. Under the background of sustainable development, assessment on the effectiveness of the NWCP is important to ecosystem management, especially in the Sanjiang Plain, the largest marsh distribution area and hotspot area with wetland loss. To achieve this aim, this study examined the changes in land cover and ecosystem services (ESs) from 1990 to 2000 and from 2000 to 2015 in the Sanjiang Plain as well as the nine national nature reserves for wetlands (NNRWs) by means of Landsat series images and the InVEST model. Results reveal that the NWCP played critical roles in reducing wetland loss and improving regional ESs. The shrinkage rate of wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain has been decreased remarkably, with a declined rate of wetland loss from 750 km² yr^-1 to 189 km² yr^-1. The reduction rate of habitat area in good suitable grade and ecosystem carbon stock declined notably during the period 2000-2015 compared to the period 1990-2000. The amount of water retention increased by 5.4%, while the grain production capacity was enhanced by nine times from 1990 to 2015. Specifically, since 2000, the reduction rate of wetland area in NNRWs (33 km² yr^-1) was obviously lower than that in the entire Sanjiang Plain, whilst various ESs in NNRWs were better than that in the whole Sanjiang Plain. This study is expected to provide an example for evaluating the effectiveness of the NWCP at other regions and support regional wetland conservation management.

Application of InVEST habitat quality module in spatially vulnerability assessment of natural habitats (case study: Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, Iran)

There has been a growing pressure of human activities, especially road network, on natural habitats of the world, which has led to habitat degradation and loss of ecosystem services. To mitigate the impacts of human activities, appropriate studies quantifying ecosystem services and assessing ecological impacts of road network are essential. The main goal of this study was modeling habitat quality and habitat degradation of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province in the southwestern part of Iran, which is among the most important habitats for wild sheep (Ovis orientalis) classified as vulnerable on the IUCN Red List. In this study, we used the habitat quality module of the InVEST software (Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs), which was driven from land use/cover data, information on anthropogenic threats, and expert knowledge. We tested the reliability of the habitat quality values by comparing them with the distribution map of wild sheep obtained from the Department of the Environment. Then, to have a more comprehensive assessment of the roads' effects on the natural habitats of this province, considering ecosystem services model, the Spatial Road Disturbance Index (SPROADI) was applied as a landscape index. The results of this study revealed that the east and north eastern parts of the study area which were among the most suitable habitats for wild sheep were highly affected by road network. Overall, findings of our study provided useful information on the spatially explicit distribution of habitat quality and degradation which were a valuable input for conservation planning and enhancing ecosystem services.

The value of hydrologic information for watershed management programs: The case of Camboriú, Brazil

Investments in watershed services programs hold the promise to protect and restore ecosystems and water resources. The design and implementation of such programs is often accompanied by hydrologic modeling and monitoring, although the role of hydrologic information in meeting the needs of program managers remains unclear. In the Camboriú watershed, Brazil, we explored the value of hydrologic modeling and monitoring with respect to two dimensions: scientific credibility and use of generated knowledge in the design, implementation, and evaluation of the watershed management program. We used a combination of semi-structured interviews, focus groups, and hydrologic modeling under various levels of data availability to examine when improved models and data availability might build credibility and provide more useful information for decision makers. We found that hydrologic information was not actually used for the detailed design, but rather contributed to broad-scale support of the program by increasing scientific credibility. Model sophistication and data availability improved the credibility of hydrologic information but did not affect actual decisions related to program design. Hydrologic monitoring data were critical for model calibration, and high-resolution land use and land cover data, obtained via remote sensing, affected some model outputs which were not used to design the program. Our study suggests that identifying how hydrologic data will inform decision making should guide the level of effort used in hydrologic modeling and monitoring.

Spatio-temporal and cumulative effects of land use-land cover and climate change on two ecosystem services in the Colombian Andes

Climate change can have marked effects on ecosystem service (ES) provision in the Andes, particularly in peri-urban areas. In addition to global-change related processes, cumulative effects such as changing socio-political dynamics, environmental policies, and conflicts are also changing type and magnitude of land use-land cover (LULC) dynamics in the Colombian Andes. Studies in the region have investigated the effects of LULC change, deforestation and extreme climatic events on the hydrology of watersheds and carbon sequestration. Yet, less is known on how the cumulative effects of climate and LULC changes will drive water yield and carbon sequestration. To investigate these cumulative effects, we study two different watersheds near Bogota, Colombia and their ES for the period 2016-2046. We use IPCC-LULC scenarios, expert elicitation, hydro-meteorological data, and integrated modelling using temporal LULC change and ESs valuation models to parse out effects of LULC versus climate change on two representative ESs. Our results show forest and shrublands remain stable during the analysis period. However, urban conversion of agricultural pastures is substantial. We found that climate change scenarios had greater effect on water yield and supply than LULC scenarios in both watersheds. However, carbon sequestration was greater in rural forest and shrubland areas farther from Bogota. In contrast to current land use zoning being promoted by local elected officials, our findings indicate that land-use development and policies in near-urban basins need to minimize urbanization in agriculture and pasture LULCs, as these can have substantial effects on water yield. Similarly, land use polices in ex-urban areas need to conserve forested and shrubland areas to maximize their carbon offset potential. Collectively, our results highlight the need to incorporate climate change conditions in decision making and land use planning processes, in order to maintain the capacity of ecosystems, both urban and rural, to provide services to society.

Quantifying and mapping of water-related ecosystem services for enhancing the security of the food-water-energy nexus in tropical data-sparse catchment

The food-water-energy nexus concept helps to produce an integrative solutions to secure the water-related ecosystem services sustainably. This study aims to quantify and map water provisioning and soil erosion regulating services from both demand and supply sides in a spatially explicit manner. It considers the Wabe River catchment of the Omo-Gibe Basin in tropical data-sparse region of East Africa as a case study and uses the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) annual and seasonal water yield and sediment delivery models. The water demands and biophysical parameters data were collected from primary and secondary sources and prepared according to the requirement of the models. The models output were validated after conducting sensitivity analysis of the input parameters. The result shows that the rainfall amount of the catchment is highly seasonal, which causes the surface water to vary according to the seasons. The high annual precipitation and low actual evapotranspiration of the catchment resulted high annual water yields. However, the people in the catchment did not satisfied their domestic water demand as result of inaccessibility and poor management of the rain water. The high net supply of water, especially in the rainy season, carries detached top soil via heavy rainfall in the upper catchment areas. Even though the existing land cover and management practices contribute to sediment retention, a large amount of sediment is exported to rivers, which jeopardizes the food and energy security. Thus, the management of water is essential for enhancing the security of the food-water-energy nexus in the catchment. The methods applied in this study can increase spatial understanding of the water-related ecosystem services especially in data-sparse catchments of the tropics, and lead to improvement of water management to enhance the security nexus.

Evaluation of the relationship between soil erosion and landscape metrics across Gorgan Watershed in northern Iran

Soil erosion is one of the most serious environmental threats strongly influenced by the spatial pattern of land uses. This study was designed to evaluate the relevance of land use pattern and soil erosion using landscape metrics across Gorgan Watershed in northern Iran. Therefore, the revised universal soil loss equation was applied to evaluate and model soil loss and sedimentation in the region. Then, soil erosion relationship to land use pattern was analyzed using a variety of metrics including percentage of landscape, number of patches, largest patch index, and landscape shape index. The results revealed that potential of soil loss, sediment retention, and sediment yield for the whole watershed were 6.6, 2.4, and 1.5 t ha^-1 year^-1, respectively. The quantity of sediment retention was estimated at 4.3, 3.2, 1.0, and 1.2 t ha^-1 year^-1 in forest, rangelands, agriculture, and built-up areas, respectively. Similarly, sediment yield was 0.6, 1.6, 1.5, and 2.1 t ha^-1 year^-1, respectively. The results revealed that the soil loss increased with decreasing metrics of forest and rangelands while increasing metrics of built-up regions and agricultural lands accelerated the process. Moreover, we showed that land use type of patches was an important factor on soil erosion, and soil loss was also affected by area, number, shape, and density of landscape patches. Result of this study can facilitate monitoring of erosion-sensitive areas in the watershed which can help managers and decision makers to design more suitable measures for soil conservation.

Assessment of nitrogen reduction by constructed wetland based on InVEST: A case study of the Jiulong River Watershed, China

The Jiulong River watershed (JRW) in southeast China includes livestock breeding and agriculture, leading to large amounts of non-point source pollution. Nitrogen (N) reductions were simulated and mapped using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) under scenarios that were built considered both constructed wetlands (CWs) and climate change, which are not common in the literature on ecosystem services assessments. The results showed that the amount of N exported from non-point sources within the JRW was 12,569 t·yr^-1. The areal N load was relatively higher in the north, while more N exported in the southeast. Constructed riparian wetlands can intercept and reduce the N loads that enter water bodies, but climate change may be a factor driving the deterioration of water quality. The methodology can be generalized to reduce other contaminants, and provides a tool for decision-makers to weigh the costs and benefits of urbanization and conservation.

Extending the SLEUTH model to integrate habitat quality into urban growth simulation

This study aims to support sustainable urban and environmental planning by using urban growth simulation models, in which environmental quality is employed as one of the inputs. We proposed an extended SLEUTH urban growth model (UGM) for the regions threatened by environmental quality degradation caused by uncontrolled urban expansion. In this model, habitat quality is assessed by the InVEST model and is used to represent environmental quality, which is utilized in urban growth simulation. The habitat quality map is used to replace the slope layer as input for the SLEUTH model's urban growth simulation for cities where relatively flat topography makes this layer of minimal explanatory value. The extended SLEUTH UGM was calibrated using data for Changzhou city, China in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2014. The best value of the Optimal SLEUTH Metric (OSM) was calculated for both the standard SLEUTH UGM and the extended SLEUTH UGM independently. The OSM value for the latter model was much higher than that of the former model, which indicated that the extended model provided a better explanation of urban growth in the study area. The calibrated extended SLEUTH UGM was applied to predict growth in Changzhou city from 2014 to 2030. The result showed that the urban area is expected to expand about 626 km² by 2030. Comparison with the prediction result by using standard SLEUTH UGM showed that the area with high habitat quality could be reserved and the urban expansion could be limited by using our model. The findings demonstrate that the extended SLEUTH UGM could be a valuable tool for sustainable urban and environmental planning and management in developing regions where environmental protection should be considered as one of the major land-use objectives in their rapid urbanization process.

Assessing habitat quality in relation to the spatial distribution of protected areas in Italy

The conservation of species and habitats is increasingly threatened by anthropogenic impacts, particularly land use change, from local to global scales. Although many efforts have been carried out so far to halt or at least reduce the biodiversity loss (e.g., the establishment of protected areas' networks), there are still both knowledge and policy gaps slowing the conservation of species and habitats in complex environments, such as the Mediterranean region. In particular, the human-driven impacts and threats on biodiversity need more careful analysis. Accordingly, this paper aims to assess the habitat quality and degradation in Italy in relation with the spatial pattern of the current protected areas' network, mainly to identify priority areas of intervention, thus supporting large-scale conservation strategies. A survey of experts was conducted to identify the main threats for biodiversity from different land uses at the national scale. The InVEST software was then applied to assess and map habitat quality and degradation with a high spatial resolution (20 m). The relationship between habitat quality and degradation as well as their hotspots, and alternative PA categories were also explored. Results indicate that: (i) habitat quality and degradation depend on the location and intensity of the anthropogenic impacts and are sensitive to different protection levels; (ii) the combination of the survey of experts and the spatially-explicit assessment of habitat quality and degradation is useful to highlight variations of the current conditions of biodiversity and habitats; and (iii) the identification of hotspots allows one to identify priority areas for conservation. Accordingly, the proposed approach may be used to strengthen the conservation efforts in similar contexts, and thus support the implementation of the biodiversity-related policies over the long term.

Comparing strengths and weaknesses of three ecosystem services modelling tools in a diverse UK river catchment

Ecosystem services modelling tools can help land managers and policy makers evaluate the impacts of alternative management options or changes in land use on the delivery of ecosystem services. As the variety and complexity of these tools increases, there is a need for comparative studies across a range of settings, allowing users to make an informed choice. Using examples of provisioning and regulating services (water supply, carbon storage and nutrient retention), we compare three spatially explicit tools - LUCI (Land Utilisation and Capability Indicator), ARIES (Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services) and InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs). Models were parameterised for the UK and applied to a temperate catchment with widely varying land use in North Wales. Although each tool provides quantitative mapped output, can be applied in different contexts, and can work at local or national scale, they differ in the approaches taken and underlying assumptions made. In this study, we focus on the wide range of outputs produced for each service and discuss the differences between each modelling tool. Model outputs were validated using empirical data for river flow, carbon and nutrient levels within the catchment. The sensitivity of the models to land-use change was tested using four scenarios of varying severity, evaluating the conversion of grassland habitat to woodland (0-30% of the landscape). We show that, while the modelling tools provide broadly comparable quantitative outputs, each has its own unique features and strengths. Therefore the choice of tool depends on the study question.

Sediment delivery modeling in practice: Comparing the effects of watershed characteristics and data resolution across hydroclimatic regions

Geospatial models are commonly used to quantify sediment contributions at the watershed scale. However, the sensitivity of these models to variation in hydrological and geomorphological features, in particular to land use and topography data, remains uncertain. Here, we assessed the performance of one such model, the InVEST sediment delivery model, for six sites comprising a total of 28 watersheds varying in area (6-13,500km²), climate (tropical, subtropical, mediterranean), topography, and land use/land cover. For each site, we compared uncalibrated and calibrated model predictions with observations and alternative models. We then performed correlation analyses between model outputs and watershed characteristics, followed by sensitivity analyses on the digital elevation model (DEM) resolution. Model performance varied across sites (overall r²=0.47), but estimates of the magnitude of specific sediment export were as or more accurate than global models. We found significant correlations between metrics of sediment delivery and watershed characteristics, including erosivity, suggesting that empirical relationships may ultimately be developed for ungauged watersheds. Model sensitivity to DEM resolution varied across and within sites, but did not correlate with other observed watershed variables. These results were corroborated by sensitivity analyses performed on synthetic watersheds ranging in mean slope and DEM resolution. Our study provides modelers using InVEST or similar geospatial sediment models with practical insights into model behavior and structural uncertainty: first, comparison of model predictions across regions is possible when environmental conditions differ significantly; second, local knowledge on the sediment budget is needed for calibration; and third, model outputs often show significant sensitivity to DEM resolution.

Ecosystem services of human-dominated watersheds and land use influences: a case study from the Dianchi Lake watershed in China

Watersheds provide multiple ecosystem services. Ecosystem service assessment is a promising approach to investigate human-environment interaction at the watershed scale. The spatial characteristics of ecosystem services are closely related to land use statuses in human-dominated watersheds. This study aims to investigate the effects of land use on the spatial variations of ecosystem services at the Dianchi Lake watershed in Southwest China. We investigated the spatial variations of six ecosystem services-food supply, net primary productivity (NPP), habitat quality, evapotranspiration, water yield, and nitrogen retention. These services were selected based on their significance at the Dianchi Lake watershed and the availability of their data. The quantification of these services was based on modeling, value transference, and spatial analysis in combination with biophysical and socioeconomic data. Furthermore, we calculated the values of ecosystem services provided by different land use types and quantified the correlations between ecosystem service values and land use area proportions. The results show considerable spatial variations in the six ecosystem services associated with land use influences in the Dianchi Lake watershed. The cropland and forest land use types had predominantly positive influences on food productivity and NPP, respectively. The rural residential area and forest land use types reduced and enhanced habitat quality, respectively; these influences were identical to those of evapotranspiration. Urban area and rural residential area exerted significantly positive influences on water yield. In contrast, water yield was negatively correlated with forest area proportion. Finally, cropland and forest had significantly positive and negative influences, respectively, on nitrogen retention. Our study emphasizes the importance of consideration of the influences from land use composition and distribution on ecosystem services for managing the ecosystems of human-dominated watersheds.

Comparing two tools for ecosystem service assessments regarding water resources decisions

We present a comparison of two ecohydrologic models commonly used for planning land management to assess the production of hydrologic ecosystem services: the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) annual water yield model. We compare these two models at two distinct sites in the US: the Wildcat Creek Watershed in Indiana and the Upper Upatoi Creek Watershed in Georgia. The InVEST and SWAT models provide similar estimates of the spatial distribution of water yield in Wildcat Creek, but very different estimates of the spatial distribution of water yield in Upper Upatoi Creek. The InVEST model may do a poor job estimating the spatial distribution of water yield in the Upper Upatoi Creek Watershed because baseflow provides a significant portion of the site's total water yield, which means that storage dynamics which are not modeled by InVEST may be important. We also compare the ability of these two models, as well as one newly developed set of ecosystem service indices, to deliver useful guidance for land management decisions focused on providing hydrologic ecosystem services in three particular decision contexts: environmental flow ecosystem services, ecosystem services for potable water supply, and ecosystem services for rainfed irrigation. We present a simple framework for selecting models or indices to evaluate hydrologic ecosystem services as a way to formalize where models deliver useful guidance.

Modeling the influence of alternative forest management scenarios on wood production and carbon storage: A case study in the Mediterranean region

Forest ecosystems are fundamental for the terrestrial biosphere as they deliver multiple essential ecosystem services (ES). In environmental management, understanding ES distribution and interactions and assessing the economic value of forest ES represent future challenges. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit method based on a multi-scale approach (MiMoSe-Multiscale Mapping of ecoSystem services) to assess the current and future potential of a given forest area to provide ES. To do this we modified and improved the InVEST model in order to adapt input data and simulations to the context of Mediterranean forest ecosystems. Specifically, we integrated a GIS-based model, scenario model, and economic valuation to investigate two ES (wood production and carbon sequestration) and their trade-offs in a test area located in Molise region (Central Italy). Spatial information and trade-off analyses were used to assess the influence of alternative forest management scenarios on investigated services. Scenario A was designed to describe the current Business as Usual approach. Two alternative scenarios were designed to describe management approaches oriented towards nature protection (scenario B) or wood production (scenario C) and compared to scenario A. Management scenarios were simulated at the scale of forest management units over a 20-year time period. Our results show that forest management influenced ES provision and associated benefits at the regional scale. In the test area, the Total Ecosystem Services Value of the investigated ES increases 85% in scenario B and decreases 82% in scenario C, when compared to scenario A. Our study contributes to the ongoing debate about trade-offs and synergies between carbon sequestration and wood production benefits associated with socio-ecological systems. The MiMoSe approach can be replicated in other contexts with similar characteristics, thus providing a useful basis for the projection of benefits from forest ecosystems over the future.

A new approach to modeling the sediment retention service (InVEST 3.0): Case study of the Cape Fear catchment, North Carolina, USA

There is a growing call for ecosystem services models that are both simple and scientifically credible, in order to serve public and private sector decision-making processes. Sediment retention receives particular interest given the impact of this service on water quality. We developed a new version of the sediment retention model for the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs) tool to address previous limitations and facilitate model uncertainty assessment. We tested the model in the Cape Fear basin, North Carolina (NC), performing sensitivity analyses and assessing its ability to detect the spatial variability in sediment retention service for eight subcatchments. The main advantages of the revised model include the use of spatially-explicit, globally available input data, and the explicit consideration of hydrological connectivity in the landscape. The sensitivity analyses in the study catchment identified the erosivity and erodibility factors, together with the cover factor for agricultural land as the most influential parameter for sediment export. Relative predictions, representing the spatial variability in sediment exports, were correctly represented by the model. Absolute sediment exports were also highly correlated with observations, although their interpretation for socio-economic assessments is more uncertain without local knowledge of the dominant erosion processes. This work confirms that the sediment connectivity approach used in the revised InVEST model has great potential to quantify the sediment retention service. Although resources to conduct model calibration and testing are typically scarce, these practices should be encouraged to improve model interpretation and for confident application in different decision-making contexts. Without calibration, the InVEST sediment model still provides relevant information for ecosystem services assessments, especially in decision contexts that involve ranking of sediment export areas, such as spatial prioritization of conservation, development or restoration activities, taking into account non-linear sediment responses to changes in land use.

Embedding ecosystem services in coastal planning leads to better outcomes for people and nature

Recent calls for ocean planning envision informed management of social and ecological systems to sustain delivery of ecosystem services to people. However, until now, no coastal and marine planning process has applied an ecosystem-services framework to understand how human activities affect the flow of benefits, to create scenarios, and to design a management plan. We developed models that quantify services provided by corals, mangroves, and seagrasses. We used these models within an extensive engagement process to design a national spatial plan for Belize's coastal zone. Through iteration of modeling and stakeholder engagement, we developed a preferred plan, currently under formal consideration by the Belizean government. Our results suggest that the preferred plan will lead to greater returns from coastal protection and tourism than outcomes from scenarios oriented toward achieving either conservation or development goals. The plan will also reduce impacts to coastal habitat and increase revenues from lobster fishing relative to current management. By accounting for spatial variation in the impacts of coastal and ocean activities on benefits that ecosystems provide to people, our models allowed stakeholders and policymakers to refine zones of human use. The final version of the preferred plan improved expected coastal protection by >25% and more than doubled the revenue from fishing, compared with earlier versions based on stakeholder preferences alone. Including outcomes in terms of ecosystem-service supply and value allowed for explicit consideration of multiple benefits from oceans and coasts that typically are evaluated separately in management decisions.

Embedding ecosystem services in coastal planning leads to better outcomes for people and nature

Recent calls for ocean planning envision informed management of social and ecological systems to sustain delivery of ecosystem services to people. However, until now, no coastal and marine planning process has applied an ecosystem-services framework to understand how human activities affect the flow of benefits, to create scenarios, and to design a management plan. We developed models that quantify services provided by corals, mangroves, and seagrasses. We used these models within an extensive engagement process to design a national spatial plan for Belize's coastal zone. Through iteration of modeling and stakeholder engagement, we developed a preferred plan, currently under formal consideration by the Belizean government. Our results suggest that the preferred plan will lead to greater returns from coastal protection and tourism than outcomes from scenarios oriented toward achieving either conservation or development goals. The plan will also reduce impacts to coastal habitat and increase revenues from lobster fishing relative to current management. By accounting for spatial variation in the impacts of coastal and ocean activities on benefits that ecosystems provide to people, our models allowed stakeholders and policymakers to refine zones of human use. The final version of the preferred plan improved expected coastal protection by >25% and more than doubled the revenue from fishing, compared with earlier versions based on stakeholder preferences alone. Including outcomes in terms of ecosystem-service supply and value allowed for explicit consideration of multiple benefits from oceans and coasts that typically are evaluated separately in management decisions.

Minimizing impacts of land use change on ecosystem services using multi-criteria heuristic analysis

Development of natural landscapes to support human activities impacts the capacity of the landscape to provide ecosystem services. Typically, several ecosystem services are impacted at a single development site and various footprint scenarios are possible, thus a multi-criteria analysis is needed. Restoration potential should also be considered for the area surrounding the permanent impact site. The primary objective of this research was to develop a heuristic approach to analyze multiple criteria (e.g. impacts to various ecosystem services) in a spatial configuration with many potential development sites. The approach was to: (1) quantify the magnitude of terrestrial ecosystem service (biodiversity, carbon sequestration, nutrient and sediment retention, and pollination) impacts associated with a suite of land use change scenarios using the InVEST model; (2) normalize results across categories of ecosystem services to allow cross-service comparison; (3) apply the multi-criteria heuristic algorithm to select sites with the least impact to ecosystem services, including a spatial criterion (separation between sites). As a case study, the multi-criteria impact minimization algorithm was applied to InVEST output to select 25 potential development sites out of 204 possible locations (selected by other criteria) within a 24,000 ha property. This study advanced a generally applicable spatial multi-criteria approach for 1) considering many land use footprint scenarios, 2) balancing impact decisions across a suite of ecosystem services, and 3) determining the restoration potential of ecosystem services after impacts.

The impact of climate change on water provision under a low flow regime: a case study of the ecosystems services in the Francoli river basin

Mediterranean basin is considered one of the most vulnerable regions of the world to climate change and with high probability to face acute water scarcity problem in the coming years. Francolí River basin (NE Spain), located in this vulnerable region is selected as a case study to evaluate the impact of climate change on the delivery of water considering the IPCC scenarios A2 and B1 for the time spans 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. InVEST model is applied in a low flow river as a new case study, which reported successful results after its model validation. The studied hydrological ecosystem services will be highly impacted by climate change at Francolí River basin. Water yield is expected to be reduced between 11.5 and 44% while total drinking water provisioning will decrease between 13 and 50% having adverse consequences on the water quality of the river. Focusing at regional scale, Prades Mountains and Brugent Tributary provide most of the provision of water and also considered highly vulnerable areas to climate change. However, the most vulnerable part is the northern area which has the lowest provision of water. Francolí River basin is likely to experience desertification at this area drying Anguera and Vallverd tributaries.